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But... But... It Was Supposed To Go To Zero
What kind of goddamned bubble pops and then goes right back up? Oh wait, did the Central Banks retract the 8-K where they all promised they are done printing for ever and ever (granted, countersigned by Linda Green and Jean Claude Junker, and edited by the WSJ)? That must be it! Oh, and gold at $1,521, back to those lofty, long ago levels from April 27. Cue CNBC on precious metals popping. And yes, that giant sucking sound is the CME preparing silver margin hike 6 through 666.
Of course, there are still those who prefer to use this currency:
(yes, from Banzai)
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" titanium core hershey bars with the gold foil wrappers"
+3
are those the titanium core hershey bars with the gold foil wrappers, endorsed by the president BJ Lewinsky?
Rock covers Paper????
resilient little bugger
Is it 50 yet?
No, but gold is within 2% of an all time closing high of $1546.50 set way back on May 3rd.
But you already knew that didn't you douchebag?
So fucking what.
So it's not a bubble, I think is his point.
Let me know any time you need some assistance interpreting other posts and I will try to help you, if able.
thats in nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted dollars. price is still low.
Soon enough. That's the best part of holding physical silver. Time is on our side.
Time is on our side as long as Congress and Bernanke continue to screw everything up. Which may be forever and for good. But, if they manage to pull this one out of the fire, .....
What are the odds? I just bought some more silver, so I do not think the odds are very good.
It's the easiest bet in the world to assume that those in control will take the easiest route possible, even if it just accelerates our collective doom.
Or said otherwise, whatever's politically expedient. Bonus if it's personally profitable.
"our collective" as you put it is not necessarily the same as "their collective"
Back from the dead. Silver Bitchez!
Betting against PMs is like betting against gravity.
I hear that the commission being formed to investigate speculators, is also going to be investigating gravity.
Absolutely. Gravity is just a theoretical concept invented by a guy sitting under a tree and doesn't exist in the real world. On top of that, what's the lazy good for nothing doing sitting under a tree when he should be at the exchange buying futures contracts at inflated prices to ensure liquidity?
The law of gravity can be changed by Congress just like any other law, and besides, no Congress can bind a later Congress by any law, so the Law of Gravity does not apply to Congress.
Why change it? It's perfectly suitable as-is. They're now finding new and interesting ways to charge you a gravity tax. See here where lawmakers have already "floated" the idea of rescending child "tax credits" for parents of obese children.
http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/illinois/article_ce1a393c-7b4e-11e0-b...
they should! why are we paying for disgusting fat people to get even more disgustingly fat?
Why am I paying for anybody's demon spawn replicants?
Now that's a +1.
I thought to ensure liquidity, one had to invest in insolvency, and self stimulate in to a state of euphoria in order to believe that it was all true.
Finally, Newton and Galileo have been laid bare for the frauds that they are. The first shot was when Pfizer came out with those little blue Gravity Busters, then there was the ever-rising popularity of Reality TV and Lady Gaga, as well as ever-rising Wall Street bonuses, but the killing blow came when every market in the world, save for the dollar and US residential real estate, broke the surly bonds of Earth and began touching the face of Lloyd Blankfein. Oh yea, and I’ve never once seen my age go down either. Explain that one, Isaac!
OT - enjoyed your article the other days
thanks
.
Thank you. I arrived late to that discussion, as TPTB where I reside saw fit to shut off the country's internet for fifteen hours or so.
Now that's funny.
You mean helium....
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/brilliant-physicist-guess-what-gravity-d...
In 1987 the markets "crashed" but the bull market was really just starting.
sound familiar.
Margin up all they want, if there is no supply, there is no supply, NOTHING IS GOING TO CHANGE THAT...
I realized there was absolutely no supply when I ordered a few RCM bars early this year and they took a few weeks backorder to get delivered. All were stamped 2011 and looked like they were poured only a few days prior. Most beautiful bars I've seen, but every dealer says that they're 8 weeks or more delay. These aren't silly ASEs, these are 100oz bars... they should be a little more plentiful than that.
When the bars are not coming from stock on hand that has been sitting in a vault, you know that the flow market is being cornered.
I'm a bug, and I've been into silver for some time, but I do not understand this shortage idea. I'm not seeing any evidence of it from where I am or from my sources: demand, yes, but shortage? No. APMEX has 1,054 100-oz .999 bars; that's over 21 contracts (of course, though not all of that is COMEX approved). There are 100-oz bars in my area: you can walk in on your lunch break and get one, if you'd like. I would be more likely to consider a "deliverable" silver shortage, and I think ZH has covered very well the "registered" v "allotted" v "deliverable" verbal tapdancing at COMEX and elsewhere.
I don't think the market is being cornered, and if I did, personally, I would be OUT. I'm not interested in silver if the market is "cornered" or being corned: the price increases are only good news to me if they are due to an expanding, distrubed investor base, not another pair of Hunt brothers. I do contend that the current price increases from August 2010 are indeed due to an increase in investor base (and I would further agrue that this nascent ancient interest was seeded in late 2009 with the Dubai Wold weekend, but that's another topic). We all know that the silver market is very small, and so things are always exaggerated (up and down). As the base increases, the volatility will decrease, and this will be further good news for silver.
One of silver's bigger short term policy problems, in my opinion, is the tax rate. Silver and gold are taxed as "collectibles", not capital gains, and that rate is 28% (and over 35% short term). This is a very severe burden on metals: it is, in my opinion, maintained to keep metals in a subordinate investment status. The rate applies to all physical silver and gold and "any metal" according to the IRS (numis and bullion alike), and to silver-linked paper as well, including SLV, and any gains on futures (though not to stocks, which are subject to 10% or 15% capital gains only). I am not clear as to whether gains from silver shorting positions are subject to this rate (if someone knows, please update me: if they are magically exempted, I wouldn't be surprised). This is a very specific pressure that increases volatility in the market, in my opinion, particularly on the short term, because it raises the performance requirements (the inverse effect of this can be seen in examining US Treasury paper investments, which, with the exception of TIPS, are not taxed). It is something to consider when you see moves like this week---particularly the 35% short term tax hit.
This is a long video....but this guys analysis, especially at the end....I have been caught up the frenzy he talks about. I hope you take the time to listen.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNU1H_B7D1g
the video commentary is great.
this is a rational investor/trader.
what i've been noticing on ZH for the past 2 months has been a frenzy and anyone that is long the physical silver and didn't sell a few futures up near $50 and covered $10 to $15 lower is a moron b/c at some point it's not going to stop at $35, but it's going back to $10 (maybe not for years). My point is, at some point you should lighten the load and/or re-balance -- it's just prudent.
After watching this video.....it made me think about my own attitude, and it helped me not to get caught up in a frenzy....and if we do see a parabolic blow off, I am going to watch this video again and pull the trigger when I feel it is right for me and level out some assets. I am 95% PM's....I know...I know....Physical though.
even if you were totally bulled up, and long the physical, why not sell at every X% rise and cover at .5X drop -- just to take some profits and lighten up after big rallies.
or chart the price with some simple trendlines or moving averages and when you start to see it head lower, sell a few and then when it starts going back up, cover the short.
what's the point of going thru the exercise of owning this stuff if you never adopt a strategy of taking profits / rebalancing and let's say Silver gets to $100 - and you still don't get out and then drops to $25 (it can happen - it has time and again).
Believe me I hear you. I am learning.
Respectfully speaking, you dont understand the viewpoint of PMs as a store of value to protect oneself in a failing economic/currency situation. Its not about trading for profits ... or, to paraphrase Will Rogers, Im not concerned about the return on my capital but keeping it intact. The kleptocracy and its ponzi scheme is failing fast. You have the wrong reference system of the dollar as value when it is falling fast in purchasing power and could hyperinflate.
Agreed - I think some that are now involved in PMs are seeing the action and jumping on board for the trading action without realizing that the movement in the price/market was due to others, who saw the massive printing (the defaulting via inflation), who are/were trying to protect their assets and/or trying to protect against high or hyperinflation.
Just completing the Will Rogers quote - I'm not concerned about the return on my capital but the return OF my capital.
he's pretty trollish, 4 sure! soon, he may reiterate how he really doesn't know much and he's here to learn---kinda like that fukhead baptist from texas---then he'll start pontificating and asking questions to hijack the fuking thread into deflections, again.
do you have any idea how many time this question has been asked and answered on this site?
what's the point of going thru the exercise of owning this stuff if you never adopt a strategy of taking profits
ebuddha: we have different values. some, quite different. we take green stamps out of one pocket, turn them into silver, and put the silver in another pocket.
rinse, repeat.
fill pockets, house garage, and gun safes w/ gold and silver US coins and/or other PMs. we don't want the green stamps. that is why we are getting rid of them.
i have named this the zeroHead silver psychosis. we've gone freaking insane. obviously. look at all the people who cannot begin to comprehend this after a 10-year bull market in PMs where PMs have outperform everything but the archangels.
people can trade and take profits. we let ours run. and run. and run. oops! little stumble.
silver goes down, we don't care. you go ahead and try to get rich and tell us how great you are doing. trade. make sure every single transaction is directly reprted to the taxing authorities. use the banks and brokerages, all the fuking day long.
we are trying to protect our assets and ourselves, and insure survival.
b/c we think the other assholes are crazier than we are.
pretty insane, eh?
Slewie the pi-rat, FTW! You pwned this thread -- show him what (s)he's won...
From the sound of the comments on ZH, people have allocated a lot more than a small percentage of their net worth in PMs. I see them as a valuable hedge / a portion of a portfolio -- and just like any other asset class, should be rebalanced according to my targeted weights. If one part of my portfolio goes up 400% and as a result goes from 10% of my portfolio to 1/3, then i sell off some of that to rebalance and lock in profits.
I understand completely the purpose of PMs - what I don't understand is people who get emotional about investments: and ZH has gone from people prudently seeking protection from the stupdity in NYC and D.C. to pushing PMs.
Let's just assume for a moment that we end up with a worse than we even expect inflation episode (something that makes the 70s look tame). What happens (and i'm not suggesting it could, but just what if) the U.S. is fortunate enough to replace chairsatan at some point with Volker2 and the inflation genie is put back in the bottle. There will be a day that makes last week seem tame. Will you have locked in any profits?
We all sit back and laugh about Bernanke's comments that 'the Fed will be able to tighten at just the right moment'. Similarly, i sit back and laugh at the thought of everyone being able to sell all the PMs at just the right moment - b/c the light bulb is going to go on at roughly the same time for everyone.
Member 1 week 4 days. Another frickin troll.
and spammer... that guy in the video is an arrogant, unteachable, know-it-all that knows a little about trading and nothing about silver, money or currency.
I actually enjoyed the video because it is clueless people like this, clinging to their pretense of enlightenment, that will be largely responsible for the final blowoff some years from now. When the panick to own precious metals reaches its frenzy, these are they who will be buying at the top.
I am always happy to see those who will be there for me to unload when it's time to rotate into something else.
'frickin troll' -- nice.
but b/c i offer a voice of reason you label me a 'troll'. perhaps i should use the vernacular found on ZH and start every post with 'bichez'. if you read the few posts i have done here in the past few days, you'll find them to be a bit more thoughtful than typical for a troll.
i actually started posting a few days ago b/c having read and enjoyed ZH for a long time, i've grown discouraged at the group think and am considering just finding another site to frequent and you've pretty much convinced me that is what i should be doing.
btw, 'traderjoe' -- maybe you should change your screen name to 'buriedMyGold' b/c if what i am suggesting (i.e. at a minimium occasionaly rebalancing your portfolio) is not what you had in mind, i'm not sure you understand what a trader is.
I prefer to sleep well at night.
Right. As if ever shorting beloved silver (which doesn't give a shit about A#1 (i.e., Me) by the way) is treasonous or sacrilege. Like a silver bull who shorts silver EVER (!) is a sellout and a fake and a troll and a faggot. For me, it is one I am comfortable going short because I believe in the long term thesis and that 5 years from now it will be WELL higher than a mere $50. I just don't see what the problem with trading around its volatility. But what do I know? I'm just the guy with the $5000 suit, c'mon!
NYSE - that's what i'm talking about, thank you for seeing my point (if you were actually responding to me).
In 2003, when gold was around $300, i bought into a GOLD MINE in Mexico. Talk about taking the plunge in a big way - and early. I've been involved in PMs since then.
But I trade around a core position and regularly take profits, rebalance and get back in. By doing so, I've made more than just the rise from $300 already and those extra profits, along with the methodology/discipline will protect me when the collapse comes (whenever that may be - and i'd agree it could be years away and much higher than we are now).
Alot of folks here are hoarding PMs for other reasons, collecting physical and locking it away. I only have a few thousand USD of PMs right now, but I am planning to add to it as much as possible over the next few years, if I have the opportunity.
To me, I have only sold my PMs to 1. buy a largish cache of ammo, 2. buy a hand gun, and 3. buy a Browning BAR with a nice scope (nice for me anyway).
I think I have enough of that for now and will concentrate on PMs here on out.
There are many different strategies. I recently heard Peter Schiff say that he's been buying silver since it was under $5, and he hasn't sold an oz of it yet.
Here are two consideration I would struggle with in liquidated a large position. Firstly, the tax hit is extreme: metals are taxes as collectibles, at 28%. That is HUGE: its nearly three times the tax burden paid by the average American on long-term equities gains.
Secondly, the question of what to do with the proceeds. I know plenty of people who buy silver for exact reason that they can shove it in a closet and just not think about it. They are the definition of long term: they wouldn't know the price on any given evening if I told them that morning. I'm not that way, because the commdities market is exceedingly entertaining to me, so I watch it often and like to learn about commodities in general.
I think one of the moves we'll see if silver gets back to the $40's again soon with a low GSR spread like it was a couple of week ago, are many long term silver bugs using that GSR to convert some holdings to gold. Then, if silver falls again and that spread increases, turning that gold back to silver. I think this a much better play for PM bugs than cashing out to dollars, because you don't want to support dollars when you can support gold. Keep with your own, as they say. I like the idea of support gold when silver gets wild: I think it is healthy for both metals.
One thing about the capital taxes on gold and silver that you are somewhat incorrect on: gains are taxed at a MAXIMUM rate of 28%, NOT absolutely at 28% --- it depends on one's income level. For retired or lower-income (unemployed) persons, the capital gains taxes, depending on how much one sells in one year, could very well effectively only be 15% or so.
I think that invariable 28% figure is bandied about so much because the capital gains issue is so frequently being discussed by high net-worth individuals, who forget that not everyone inhabits the lofty income perches in which they dwell.
Akak--thank you for that correction, you are absolutely correct: the max rate is 28%, and for those under $82,400, the rate is the same as their income tax bracket rate, down to 15%.
In saying a "large position" I am indeed talking about the high-rollers, like you say. I will be sure to add "maximum" to whenever I mention taxing metals in future posts. Thank you for the needed correction.
You are most gracious, Keri, and you are most welcome ---- I am glad to be of help.
Given that probably quite a few posters here are NOT high-income individuals, I would just hate to add further fuel to their precious metals concerns and worries.
There will be a point where silver will not look back - just as gold did. We know why silver did not perform when gold had it's massive run-up. I'm assuming you don't think gold will go back under $400.
There is only 1 guy here who said it was going to 0...."straight trendline to 0"
Oh, and he called it.
But now, my oh my, the physical price and the spot price are both going up in harmony...where are the cries of this mythical "disconnect"? Or does that only occur when the price goes down?
You don't even know what the fuck you are talking about. You apparently have no shame, posting here, after going short on my bullish call.
Go fuck yourself, faggot. Enjoy poverty.
Also, physical premiums are still much higher than they were a week and a half ago--they won't be going down soon.
You say the same shit in every post. You loser.
38 is a long way from 49 and 24 is even further. You'll lose even more. You deserve it because you're an asshole.
Whatever you say, long juan silver clone.
Why don't you email my colleagues and try to get me fired again, you dumb little shit?
You should be fired for posting here 1000 times a day instead of attending to your supervisors you fucking faggot
I make million dollar products on a monthly basis. You think anyone is going to give a fuck how I spend my time?
Enjoy your fresh one, ban evader.
I have a million dollars and I dont work. Fuck you.
Of course you don't. No-one would have a moronic stoner like you.
You don't need a million dollars to not work. As it happens, the fact that you picked such a round number outs you as a lying shit.
Also, you have not denied that you are long juan silver. But rather you are a loser who spends all his time trying to scheme against people he doesn't like on the internet, registering hundreds of names in pursuit of that dumbshit goal.
Go smoke some more crack, loser.
OK, tmosley trolls...
I am late to THIS party, but you be fcukin' with the wrong guy.
Take it from an ALLY of him. You enemies / cyberstalkers of him would deserve any chemical marvels that would cause distress. LOL...
I think he meant Zimbabwe dollars. I have trillions of dollars.
Yes, and you also work at WalStreet as "The Axe", and you also are gonna fuck people in the ass as "mogul rider", and you also cyberstalk people as <WhatWasHisNameAgain>.
And yet, you still manage to get junked into oblivion, get banned and you need to create new accounts every few days, because even after who knows how many tries, people notice that it's just you again.
You fail at trolling.
Dont really care what you think. Never heard of you
"never heard of you" = hilarious
My cock is 7.45"
My moniker is not by accident. Nor I see is yours.
Wow Tmosley, I had to unlurk and sign up to just say how much I appreciate your existence, along with sheep dog and rocky raccoon and turd. You have at least 6 dedicated trolls trying to butt fuck you, you destroy them every time, and yet they come back for more. This little fucker even tried to Call/Email your work to try to 'get you in trouble'? WTF kind of loser tries to tattle on someone's work? It seems you are a self made man, and this cock sucker couldn't get you in trouble after all. Please, Long Duck Dong, can you call my work and tattle on me? Pretty Please? They'd love to hear from you! Fucking desperate sock puppet losers infesting this place lately. And they all attack the same people that are the most articulate, outspoken, and most of all, CORRECT. I can't believe that fucker called your work, and I distinctly remember him threatening you multiple times. He must be so butthurt, he needs to turn his sybian all the way up to maxx before he feels anything. Cheers m8.
You made your debut with both guns blazing.
Looks like your kinda place.
not sure if "debut" is exactly the right term :) Maybe a bit of "turnabout is fair play", but I think we may already know this fella :)
Actually I am indeed new but I appreciate your distrust, most healthy. Cheers.
"My moniker is not by accident. Nor I see is yours."
Oh look morgan stanley exploded. It's a economic frikkin miracle!!
I guess your 99 weeks of unemployment haven't run out yet.
Why you gotta be such a bitch wirtschaftswunder?
Did you sell low and buy high? Thought you understood the basics man...
No I sold agq north of 300.
I don't hold onto losers like you.
Haha....on the back of your abhorrent calls I find it embarrassing on your part to be making judgements on ANYTHING.
I'm still short. I will add on to short positions going into this move.
But like I've said tmosely (and which has continuously proven you wrong time, and time again)...price is the final arbiter, it has, and always will be.
Price is up today, bitch.
Or is your attention span somewhat longer than that of a gnat now that your dumbshit contrarian plays have gone against you? Well, then I invite you to look at my longer term record--bullish on physical silver since 2008, post crash. That means up 300%. 400% if you factor rising premiums, which you don't care to, even though you keep saying price is the final arbiter.
You are revealed. Time to get a new username like your faggot friend long juan silver did.
You said it would be 49 by last Friday! ,-) What howler! You suck as an investor because you suck as a human being.
Silver going from 32-39 in a week is no better than it going from 18 to 50 in a couple months.
Like I said, I am shorting into this move (Starting from $37.89)
I have slaughtered you time and time again, but I guess you feel this time is different. In all honestly it's getting old proving you wrong. There's no sense arguing with an idiot.
I think you should put your entire life savings into silver RIGHT here.
Please go short gold and silver from here to eternity Bob.
Normally, I like to see people making money in this sector. You I'd like to see get completely cleaned out. You're a fucking joke on PM's.
Youre not making any money on Pms dude. Otherwise youre a jerkoff
WTF? Holding physical for over ten years? Gold is within 1-2% of all time highs.
LMAO.
You the only one on this thread talking about gold. Cant you read or is reading not taught to pederasts?
Hurr U R teh pedofil, DUUUURP
Oh, come on. This economic wonder (yes, we all know German) is obvious one who loves the Fed and the Bernank. Hating honst money puts him ont he side of the banksters. That would make him into a FEDOPHILE. And that's something I certainly wouldn't be.
You know who this person sounds like... AP (American Patriot) from the Marketwatch forums.
Any one else notice that?
Yes, and I have held silver from that long ago as well. It was only $4.50 back in those days. Even under Math Man's magical "dig it out of the ground for $5" level.
Seriously, do you reading comprehension problems yourself? TMos buys every month you fucking dummy.
haha.
You must be short too?
WHAT!?
My God, you are so incomprehensibly stupid, I can't fucking believe it.
My life savings IS in silver, you moron! It has been since it hit $8 in 2008!
How can you possibly be so stupid, so fucking lacking in reading comprehension as to not know that?
You haven't done SHIT to me, because I own silver. Real, physical silver. I have made exactly one (small) purchase above the current spot level. My cost average, as I have said so many fucking times as to be UNCOUNTABLE, is less than $16.
Christ, you're as bad as that crackhead wirtshaftwhatever. lol, he got the dumbshit idea that I somehow missed the move in silver, despite being on the record literally dozens of times saying I am 95% silver, 5% gold.
Still, I can't believe how stupid you are. Like, fucking reptile level retarded.
You're a joke.
I'm done with you.
lol, I'm sure you are, after being utterly fucking humiliated.
Silver is 38 and you were buying at 49. You douchebagholding loser.
Smoke more crack. Your perception of reality isn't warped enough for you to forget how to use a computer yet.
Moron.
Ah yes three sockpuppets on your ass at once. They must really hate you reminding people that we're fucked. 'It was later than I thought, when I first believed you, now I cannot share your laughter ship of fools.' Read what I said about Long Duck Dong trying to call your work up above. He's lucky you didn't sue for harassment.
What's corp are you with? Like the airhead fuck force. What's your slogan? Semper Douchey?
Call it my need to know.
so in other words, while you were pumping like crazy for people to BUY BUY BUY with both hands, 49 by EOW and 60 next week and then TEH MOONZ the week after, you yourself weren't buying anything...
what a ridiculous piece of shit pumpmonkey you are, cliff. You are a fool leading the blind.
Your "life savings" is in silver? ROTFL. What do you have, 10,000 oz? riiiiiight. Right next to the buried canned ham is your metric ton of silver, right, cliff?
I'd actually put money (real money ---- metal --- not the paper shit) on the bet that tmosley has significantly more than 10,000 oz of Ag.
Trav, on the other hand, most likely has nothing more to his name than a rosy palm and a monstrously fucking bad attitude.
Uhhh, I buy every month, and made my monthly purchase the week before the drop. I bought some more this week. I would have bought whether the price was $100, or $10, or $1, or $1000. I moved up my monthly purchase this month to take advantage of the sale, which now looks like it is much more temporary than you morons have been claiming.
You, like the other trolls (you have really debased yourself in your stupid vendetta against me, and I now rank you among them), don't pay any fucking attention to what I have said, and try to mischaracterize what I have said. As such, you miss the fact that I am up some 400% on my initial investment (300% if I sold at spot without taking my premium), and up some 250% on my cost average. I have told people the same damn shit for years, and idiot trolls like you will always come along after every correction and claim that I was "wrong" or some shit, and how you are trying to "save everyone". You then shit yourselves and disappear when the price rises again.
You are a conceited little shit, nothing more than a ball of hate that has formed around your own personal failure, and is now directed outward at anyone who dares to criticize you and your dumbassed theories.
Also, the size of my life savings is none of your concern. The correctness of my calls over the last three years is. For every $1 I have lost anyone who listened to me, I have made them, or someone else $500, in the last 200 trading days alone. But you don't want to hear that. You just want to say any shit you can to try to discredit me, including half truths and outright lies.
Go fuck yourself.
This dead animal bounce will lead to lower highs and prices near 24, maybe 13.
$24? or $13?
paper? with a slight disconnect of $30 or $40?
SV wont be 24 with phy at 50 JW. CL wont be 100 with gasoline at 8.
24 is more certain but we'll be optimistic about 13.
you maaaaaD?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFgXF0a_Yw4
What I dont and cannot understand is the MYTH that there is a premium for physical.
This may be the case in the future in the CME default happens, but it hasnt happened yet. As of right now you have an absolute right to hold a Silver contract past expiry, watch your margin go to 100%, then be issued a reciept for the silver you just bought. I have checked with mfglobal (my futures broker) and they tell me this is no problem at all.
Also many banks (my own, UBS) will buy silver or gold for you at the current spot price plus a small spread (.30 / oz on gold, not sure what it is on silver)
Is there something I am missing here?
I'll write you a receipt too. Just hope you can find the silver when shtf.
What sort of quantities are you talking about? 1000 ounce comex bars? Have you actually purchased one?
Do you usually spout off about stuff you don't know about?
Yes, 100 oz bars are available for $1- 2 over spot.
There is alot of passion on this site about PMs. I held my mini-silver contract with lind-waldock, got delivery in nyc a couple of months ago -- no issues. That being said, there are some that believe that physcial is difficult to come by for reasons other than supplier bottlenecks.
I'm not an expert, so I leave these conversations alone.
Intuitively, IMHO, PMs is the place to be, especially gold. But silver has a passionate following - from the days of Jennings two centuries ago. That battle plays out here every day between the silver bugs and the trolls. Just keep your arms and legs away from the computer monitor and you'll be ok
Go to any retailer of silver products anywhere in the world. Ask what their price for any given product is.
It will be more than spot, unless you are buying 90% (in quantity) or 40% (any amount) junk silver. Even COMEX deliverable bars aren't available for spot. Hell, even 100oz bars aren't going for less than $2 per oz over spot. And the premiums go up from there.
I'm hoping you are not a troll, and that that was an honest question, but given the "quality" of the new posters that have been showing up over the last couple of months, I won't hold my breath.
tmosley, i come in peace. As a question, do you think that premiums can be a little higher now for smaller sized silver rounds (1 oz) becuase of the price volatility? If silver starts to fluctuate in a wide range, manufacturers and retailers may be stuck with inventory at various price points and may need to charge more to make their margin.
I'm not a retailer, but I understand the same thing happens at gas stations during wild price swings. that is ONE of the reasons why prices are sticky on the way down...
It doesn't invalidate the reason for holding silver. The trolls navigate the argument to paper or short-term valuations -- a point that no one cares about. The currency failure (if one occurs) isn't here yet, so their point isn't valid or relevant at this point. But pointing to sticky premiums may not be the evidence for a silver shortage...
SIlver will be in shortage when many people rush to convert fiat for something tangible. Right now we are just playing at the bottom of a demand s-curve. We are the beginning of the market. the early adopters. When the rest come aboard, that is when the current purchase price will be vindicated.
If you're talking pawn shops and small local coin dealers I think you could be right. But the larger manufacturers, refiners and dealers are sophisticated hedgers with one leg in the futures or options markets and implementing strategies to protect those margins.
Dealers live on the dealer spread and if they're not moving metal they're not making money. Most of the big boys can't afford to stop selling when price moves against them...so they hedge out most of the price risk and buy and sell at whatever price the market sets.
If the markets were overflowing with supply in excess of demand premiums would tend to contract, not grow. The fact that APMEX was offering to buy at a premium to spot recently implies they couldn't get supply any cheaper way.
I don't know just how tight the physical supply is, but it seems pretty clear that supply is lagging demand. At least for now.
The dealer I have used for years in Australia is also having supply issues and they are VERY well connected with a mine and a refiner, directly buying production and even selling "signature" bullion products.
Click the link and look for the gold button labeled "...today's pricelist" and then look at the silver on offer.
https://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/
12-16kg bars and some 3oz Ainslie silver rounds....that's it. I've never seen him so depleted. Not even in 2008. There is no way he's sitting on inventory waiting for higher prices.
Premiums rise and fall in a market environment. There are too many actors on this stage for any one of them to be able to steal the scene and set prices. Whether they are making or losing money is irrelevant. What is relevant is that anyone who failed to raise premiums is now out of product. The first person or company to lower premiums will run out of product as this orgy of buying based on this artificial dip continues.
I won't attack you, or anyone else, for your opinions. I might say that they are stupid, but I won't berate you like I do the trolls. Everyone is free to have an opinion. I will only attack you if you needlessly insult people who aren't even talking to you (like wirtschaftwunder), or if you lie or purposefully misrepresent the truth, like Trav, Mathman, Dangertime, etc.
Hi Bob,
Actually - it is entirely possible to have a price discconect only on the way down. If physical is difficult to aquire or the the seller has bought at a premium he will be less likely to drop his price as quickly as SPOT plummets but conversely sell as SPOT comes close to what he or she deems is fair market value given the circumstances. A disconnect does not need to imply that the prices do not act together to some degree - only that there is ellasticity between the two. BTW - same could happen the other direction under the right set of circumstances. I've seen this exact thing happen before in other retail markets - especially ammunition.
I think Bob was working the hypocrisy angle.
And what's your angle you pathetic little name changing weasel?
lol, what hypocrisy? I have said since day one that you should only hold physical. It has done FINE. It is up more than 400% since I started recommending it.
But then, you are a stoned loser who lives in a van on the beach, so you can't really be expected to understand much of anything.
Shut the fuck up you moron
Yeah, you'd like that, wouldn't you? Fits right in with your agenda.
Well fuck you, crackhead. You aren't getting shit from me.
Nobody wants anything from you much less investment advise delivered in thousands of daily posts and double that number when silver is falling and you think that by posting more often you'll either stop the fall or rationalize your failures in public. LOL you a fool and a faggot obsessed asshole
I love how you can't even put together a cogent thought.
You think you are convincing anyone of ANYTHING with your dumbshit comments?
Smoke some more crack. It'll make the pain of being a loser who lives in a van by the beach and is utterly abhorred by all former friends and family members, and society in general fade away into the background.
Butt crack and boys. That all you ever talk about except buying silver each and every single solitary day.
Hurrr, UR teh pedofil, HURRRRRP!
Someonez plez tak me serius.
Correction: 4 sockpuppets on your ass at once. Do I hear a fiver?
yes
Clearly this is the big one. Sacks of silver rather than clownbux are starting to look awfully attractive.
Tyler: seriously tho..lol
lol!
When the silver price crashed in early 1980, it went from the high of $50, down to $34, back up to $40, down to $35, up to $38, then fell off a cliff, all in the span of a couple months.
Just sayin'...
We have global players playing this time, even emerging markets can play..
this is a rundown of the FED funds rate in 1980: jan-dec.
1980
13.82 14.13 17.19 17.61 10.98 9.47 9.03 9.61 10.87 12.81 15.85 18.90pretty similar to now.........
Not to mension we have internet these days.
Interest rate hike is not unlikely as they will need to keep the equity party going to create additional paper wealth. However, there is real trend they are trying to increase margin size so to effectively increase contract size and cost of trading. Or create lot of volatility to shake out paper future market. Or increase contract size?
Real shortage is out there for silver coins/bar, but we just need to think of scenarios of their next moves to gain advantages. What else can they do? Like, only allow liquidation of future contract as in the 80's. The best knowledge is to know enemy strategies.
Thanks!
shortages have not been too enduring. at a high enuf price ($45-50), you can have all the silver you want!
at least that is what happened a coupla weeks ago.
local shops had silver coins; i saw stuff online. not everyone markets silver the same way; not everyone buys silver the same way.
dealers run out of coins all the time. they are finite. not fiat.
Global players? In 1980 you had Nelson Bunker Hunt, a billionaire when a billion said something, and owner of a multinational oil empire. You had the Kuwait Investment Authority. You had Saudis including Ghaith Pharoan, Mohammed Aboud al-Amoudi, Prince (now King) Abdullah, Akram al-Ojjeh (TAG). They seem pretty global, too.
There might be a lot of compelling reasons to like silver now, but "global participation" is not one to hang one's hat on.
I'd like to see Tyler post this:
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/05/costatas-silver-open-forum.html
Should generate an interesting discussion.
The difference is that there are a lot more of them today, not just the absolute top of the social stratum. Back then, regular people were selling silver to get dollars to put into bank accounts and get 15+% interest. They aren't going to sell silver and take 0.01% interest. They will more likely sell their silverware (if they have any left--most was sold in the 80's, and it never really came back into style) and buy refined silver.
I’ll respond to another of your posts here. The “anywhere in the world” comment about premiums is a little too broad. Margins here are still razor thin, as in cents for silver. Two years ago, when the gold mining craze went full bore here (using cyanide and mercury recovery techniques, and producing a lot of “Mad Hatters” as the mercury does its nastiness to the locals who hand knead the slurry-mercury mixture), they’d precipitate the silver and just pour it off. (They also would leave the platinum group metals, as well as some finer gold, in the tailings because the Pt group metals are too difficult to extract in a jungle environment.)
Now they (and I mean Chinese miners) are taking the silver, but most are then selling it for jade. Hence the thin margin. Chinese might like gold, but they LOVE imperial jade. Silver is a means to an end, at least for the wealthy. Three or four years ago, the oft held government auctions would sell three or four million worth of jade. Then it exploded. The last auction in March they sold $2.8 billion, which represents about 18% of this country’s GDP, or at least it did until this auction.
While neither here nor China has any interest in telling the Silver Institute how much they are pulling out of the ground, it seems to be substantial, based on the boom in the mining areas and the parabolic rise in jade prices.
I'm not sure why you are correlating silver and jade. Jade isn't priced in silver, it's priced in Yuan. The rich in China are net buyers of gold, silver, and jade. I don't see how or why one should take away from the other, or why the rise in price of one should be a clue about production levels in another.
I like jade on a personal level, but the valuations are just ridiculous, and the grading is like that of gems. Too much variance from piece to piece. Wish I had bought some a few years ago, now that. Even the common stuff has gone up in price tenfold or more, even with the spread.
Back to the net buyer thing--China is not only consuming all of the silver it produces, it is importing more. This is as opposed to a few years ago when they were a major exporter. It seems to me that the Chinese are looking for any and every form of financial protection from the inflation that is ravaging their country from the foolish dollar peg. This is likely the main force at play here.
That fofoa open contribution is flawed. The author is faking reality and actually starts by trying to force the reader to fake reality too. The whole premise is based on a hypothetical "price manipulation" for higher and lower prices. The author admits that if only downward price manipulation (suppression) is taking place, his whole idea is worthless.
Well, as it turns out from hard facts, his whole contribution is worthless.
But I'm sure JPigMormon must have paid the author more than the $2USD/hr MathMan gets.
Your response is a good reason why the article would be interesting here. While it is based on a fictitious scenario, it is also true that Blythe Masters hasn't been fired. If her losses were really as extensive as other internet posters would have one believe, surely she would be off "setting up her own hedge fund" by now.
The truth probably lies somewhere between Costata and Max Keiser.
And back in 1980 the U.S. was solvent. Now, not so much.
No read enterprise corruption. In 1980 we were partially through the IT revolution and broke as all shit. They didn't transfer enough wealth to get us far. Only 20 years. Now we are end of IT revolution and broke as shit again. And people are not following the march to the slaughter house orders.
And the Treasury debt/private debt to gdp was low enough so that rates could be raised. Now, not so much.
We haven't hit the high yet, so your point is irrelevent. The only reason we are trading like this right now is that there was an incredible manipulative push to move silver from $45 to $48 on the 27th and then slam it hard on the lightest trading volume you can find after getting the pals at the CME group to agree to a few hikes. Then they hike margins again and again with the excuse "silver is too volatile" ... when anyone in the market knows that it will only become more volatile when you change the rules of the game and everyone is forced to reposition.
We know for a fact that Goldman Sachs and JPM were apprised by the CME group before publication of the hikes. The question is, who else was told? And why hasn't the CME just done a FORMULA BASED MARGIN so that there is no conflicts of interest? And why hasn't the CME forced short positions to have the similar time obligations as long positions do when delivering?
We all know the game is rigged and us that are acquiring the metal know what we're getting ourselves into. I know there are plenty of fellas with far more dough than I have doing the same basic strategy -- long physical until the market is dry. The bullion repositories will lose, this war just takes time.
I'm ready for more volatility! Bring it on.
No shit....I'd love another chance to add more physical silver below $35....
Yea, I believe that was right after Volker raised interest rates to ...what... 21%?
Try that now and watch everything collapse, starting with the US government, and yes, silver too.
Try 1% nevermind 21%
Inflation is here....$15 for a 10 piece KFC??
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EKjl3YL1eFg&feature=fvwrel
You cant buy it and cook it for that..