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Italian Bank Trading Dominates Sigma X For Second Day In A Row Following Rumors Of Tremonti Resignation

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Following up on our inaugural post tracking Sigma X transaction, where as we first reported Italian banks had captured the imagination of the big money, accounting for the three most active positions in Goldman's Dark Pool, today's update should not come as a surprise. For the second day in a row, the most actives continue to be UniCredit and Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (Intesa has fallen from 3rd to 12). This builds on earlier rumors of a major shake up (see below) in the italian government, where Finance Minister Tremonti has allegedly threatened to resign again, and this time Berlusconi may be prepared to accept the resignation. Should this happen, look for Italy CDS and Bund spreads to react appropriately. The Sigma X signal is merely the continuing writing on the wall.

Today's Sigma X most actives:

Morgan Stanely chimes in on what may be the cause for imminent Italian turbulence:

There are some speculations in the local papers that the disagreement between PM Berlusconi and FInance Minister Tremonti has reached a new peak again and that Tremonti may threaten to resign again and this time Berlusconi may be prepared to accept.

Given Mr Tremonti stronger reputation (and Berlusconi's weaker stance esp in the international community), if confirmed this is clearly not helpful for Italy especially at this very sensitive moment

The same papers also indicate that Bini Smaghi (who has to resign from his post as ECB board member given Draghi's appointment) could be appointed should Tremonti go (and he would be a well respected high level appoiontment)

None of this is confirmed and it is not obvious even whether Tremonti would resign, but the uncertainty in itself at a very difficult moment for the sovereign (and the already not very stable political situation in Italy) is not helpful for the market in my view. This comes after Moodys changed outlook for Italy to negative last week

We have seen macro funds (esp credit but also equity) effectively selling Italy since Friday (both on stand-lone concerns for the sovereign) but also as a way to position more negatively on Southern Europe

Italian banks have been significantly impacted recently and some show cheap values (ISP for example which is fully recap'd to 10% CT1 but trades below 0.8x NAV), but I would just be reluctant to get involved as yet as the situation unfolds in Italy but also in Southern Europe, as this is still very fluid. And I think the way bank stocks traded today (with Italians in the red in a green screen) tells me that investors are cautious too (note that quite a few wend long ISP in the rights issue and are hurting now)

h/t David

 

 


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Tue, 06/28/2011 - 12:34 | Link to Comment Don Quixotic
Don Quixotic's picture

And the Euro surges. Sounds about right.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:17 | Link to Comment FOREX loop.
FOREX loop.'s picture

While silver does a wild dance... I wonder if every time it jumps its because a bunch of greeks have swapped fiat for physical. :P

This guy is looking for something less that 33/oz before buying, I think thats a little high, I'm holding off untill upper 20's, but its a good brief summation of the volatility. 

http://collegemessiah.blogspot.com/2011/06/i-gotcha-back-so-you-best-to-...

Maybe the italians will be buying up the pm market soon.

 

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 12:47 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Who cares, Kleptocracy USA doing just fine, DOW parked at usual +100 pop open for the day. Wake me when theres dead bodies in the street, Ive got drinkin to do.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 12:55 | Link to Comment plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Picked up some Nike last night. Life is good, Then i die.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:12 | Link to Comment etrader
etrader's picture

They'll try & sell 1289 on the ES....

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 12:44 | Link to Comment Ahmeexnal
Tue, 06/28/2011 - 12:52 | Link to Comment Paralympic Equity
Paralympic Equity's picture

Banco Ambrosiano was an Italian bank which collapsed in 1982. At the centre of the bank's failure was its chairman, Roberto Calvi and his membership in the illegal masonic lodge Propaganda Due (aka P2). Vatican Bank was Banco Ambrosiano's main shareholder

 

I love to see "Bank", "Collapse" and "Vatican" in the same sentence, I will be a lot happier when I will see the same thing, but instead of "Bank" it will be "Caja"

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 15:09 | Link to Comment Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

Not sure why you were junked for that...

 

Seems apt to me (see comment in first thread on this).

 

http://www.archelaos.com/popes/imgx/Roberto_Calvi_4.jpg

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 16:48 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

How many banker's bodies have ever been found like his?

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 16:48 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

In London?

Wed, 06/29/2011 - 18:02 | Link to Comment Use of Weapons
Use of Weapons's picture

Going by the picture I provided... at least one.

 

[Note: Don't get hoisted by your own petard - London has had a long and bloody history, and hanging / drawing / quartering used to be de rigour... pretty sure we can dig up some more. Not to mention: "Suspicious suicides / hit 7 runs / odd heart attacks"... these numbers will be a whole lot bigger, n'cest pas?]

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 12:42 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So is Greece gonna have that austerity vote thingy today or is that already old news and priced in?

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 12:54 | Link to Comment Fidel Sarcastro
Fidel Sarcastro's picture

If it would be bad for the market it's "priced in."  If it's good for the market it's not only "not fully priced in yet," it will be extrapolated to infinity.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 12:46 | Link to Comment Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

I gotta agree...

This is gettting old. Dow will stay elevated, No one will default, money will be printed, nothing will crash, bears will be crushed time and time again, blah, blah,blah....

Until a country tells the bankers to get bent the Ponzi will continue forever....everything else is just noise and entertainment.

 

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 12:51 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Thats the key, they need to tell the bankers to go fuck themselves, until then nothing changes.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:05 | Link to Comment Archimedes
Archimedes's picture

Yeah,

Now that Nations have taken on the debt for the banks only a Government telling the bankers to pound sand will cause a crash. Or, the public actually getting mad enough to beat a few Politicians to death. So far none of that is happening. If you look at the protests in Greece the crowd seems kind of sparse.

So it seems no Country has the balls to stand up to the bankers sans Iceland. I guess the public will get what they deserve..low wages and a second rate lifestyle while the bankers feast... sad.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 16:54 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

One Country that has the balls to stand up to the bankers: Denmark

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 17:41 | Link to Comment M.B. Drapier
M.B. Drapier's picture

Not being in the Euro is a big help there.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 12:57 | Link to Comment Mercury
Mercury's picture

Unicredit SpA, a $1.40 stock,  has traded 335mm+ shares today.  Maybe some of the guys behind the <1mm shares on SigmaX  are putting on a great trade but this (unless its x100) is chump change...

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:01 | Link to Comment Paralympic Equity
Paralympic Equity's picture
by Paralympic Equity
on Tue, 06/28/2011 - 05:33
#1408143

 

But if You add up just some of the bigger ATS/Dark pool services, You can get up to 50 - 60 mln shares of Unicredit just for today (if You have a Bloomberg terminal), and by now You have arround 100 mln shares traded throught Milan.

 

This is my post from 5 hours ago, it's not just Sigma, there are a lot of other ATS/Dark Pools with a lot of volume...

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:20 | Link to Comment Mercury
Mercury's picture

...if you have a B-berg with all the bells and whistles turned on and can segregate volume by venue that is.

At 1.40 (Euros, actually) maybe it's just the in-and-out,  Citigroup (pre-rev-split) of Europe right now. 

If something big is happening, obviously SigmaX isn't the place to be.  You never know where they hell they show your order in that thing anyway.

Ugly chart and not much room left between here and zero.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:24 | Link to Comment M.B. Drapier
M.B. Drapier's picture

Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena

The world's oldest surviving bank. Surviving up to now anyhow...

The same papers also indicate that Bini Smaghi (who has to resign from his post as ECB board member given Draghi's appointment) could be appointed should Tremonti go (and he would be a well respected high level appoiontment)

Ha ha ha haa haa! Here in Ireland we have a special love for our friend Lorenso and his many outspoken public statements. For example, his repeated suggestions that only the Irish component of the original EU bank stress-tests was bogus. The thought of him getting his wish and taking command of the Italian public finances and financial sector at this precise moment is ... absolutely delightful, actually.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:01 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

But the anti-nuclear  watchdog group Concerned Citizens for Nuclear Safety said the fire appeared to  be about 3.5 miles from a dumpsite where as many as 30,000 55-gallon drums of  plutonium-contaminated waste were stored in fabric tents above ground. The group  said the drums were awaiting transport to a dump site in southern New  Mexico.

 

Lab officials at first declined to  confirm that such drums were on the property, but in a statement early Tuesday,  lab spokeswoman Lisa Rosendorf said such drums are stored in a section of the  complex known as Area G. She said the drums contain cleanup from Cold War-era  waste that the lab sends away in weekly shipments to the Waste Isolation Pilot  Plant.

 

She said the drums were on a paved  area with few trees nearby and would be safe even if a fire reached the storage  area. Officials have said it is miles from the  flames.

 

"These drums are designed to a safety  standard that would withstand a wildland fire worse than this one," Rosendorf  said.

http://www.npr.org/2011/06/28/137468916/mandatory-evacuations-ordered-as-wildfire-threatens-los-alamos?ps=cprs

Jet Stream Forcast

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Wind/JetStream.aspx

Surface Wind Forecast

http://www.intellicast.com/National/Wind/WINDcast.aspx

Southwest Airlines:  Wanna get away?

www.southwest.com

 

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:04 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Nothing to see here....move along people.

Although nuclear power plants in Nebraska are now under water, and drums of plutonium about to be engulfed in flames, your 401Ks are FINE and reservations for comfy retirement at The Villages still confirmed!

Sleep on, sheeple of america! 

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:20 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

A small fire was reported at the Los Alamos National Laboratory on Monday, but it was contained quickly. Lab officials said that all hazardous and radioactive materials are safe. Read the full story here.

Google translation:  Run you fuckers!!!!!

 

PS:  SheepDog1, looking at the surface wind forecast, maybe you want to GTFO of Boulder and head to the west coast (via DIA).

 

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:23 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

http://www.koat.com/news/28362925/detail.html

 

“I have talked to the director of the laboratory. He’s assured me that all of the materials of a hazardous nature or a radioactive nature are all well-controlled and are not in danger and not threatened,” Sen. Jeff Bingaman said.

 

Time to panic?

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:08 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Why was the Greek austerity vote article removed? Did they call it off? Did they pass it? 

*edit* AH I see the serial junker has returned!

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:15 | Link to Comment Mercury
Mercury's picture

It's probably the immortal alien from Hitchikers' Guide who has taken it upon himself to personally insult every living creature in the universe.

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:08 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

I wonder what will happen to stocks when things actually start improving?

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:05 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

And no sooner than every post on this article gets junked, ROBO appears! Wow imagine that!

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:07 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'When things actually start improving'? Your head is up your ass!

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:14 | Link to Comment richard in norway
richard in norway's picture

sorry i junked you by mistake, but WTF are you talking about "when things start to improve", we will all be dead and buried by that point so we won't care

 

hey i got a captcha without negative numbers

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:11 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Can't blame the bears for being bummed.

3 chances of busting the 200-day and they failed.

Maybe next time down?

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:15 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Maybe youre a fucking assclown!

Tue, 06/28/2011 - 13:59 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

there is a chance that Italy will invent the new ponzi of all ponzi's... abiotic oil coming out of Berlusconi's bunga-bunga flings. He will be guaranteed full immunity and immortality as savior of Italy's future. Go long Bunga bunga and Berlusconi's corn of abundance...which will reveal all to the world when Etna erupts next its hot abiotic oil...forever on; 2million bpd bonanza,  thanks to the bunga bunga vestal virgins who stimulate Zeus to comply to his favorite italian son's wishes. Only Berlusconi can invent this, only he.

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