It's 3:27 pm ... SELL !!!

Fibozachi

It’s 3:27 pm … SELL !!!

Today’s market internals registered a new TICK low-of-the-day (lod)
reading of -889 at 15:27 (3:27 pm EST) as several trendlines were
simultaneously broken on the VOLD (NYSE Volume Up-Down Difference), ADD
(NYSE Adv-Decl Issues Difference) and the VIX.  This was an incredibly
clear-cut signal that an end-of-day sell-off was about to
begin and directly presaged 5 increasingly greater TICK lod readings that
registered over the next 30 minutes; demonstrating an overwhelming
desire to sell by market participants.   

Please click on any of the snapshots below to open a large, crystal-clear picture.

Watching the market internals on a 1-minute basis can be extremely valuable to intra-day traders (especially those who scalp futures) as warning signs within these internals almost always lead actual price action on the ES (S&P 500 futures, current basis December, ESZ09) by just a full second or two. 

Please always remember that everything is contextual; a new TICK lod reading that registers with only a half-hour remaining in the session does not always imply that an end-of-day (eod) sell-off will occur …. many times it will indicate that an exhaustion of selling pressure has taken place and effectively mark the low - in actual price action - before a swift upwards push takes hold into the close.  

The new TICK lod reading of -889 that occurred today at 15:27 (3:27 EST) was much more
likely to be a bearish kick-off signal because the ES had spent the
majority of the cash session (09:30 - 16:00) in a narrow trading range,
otherwise known as ‘sideways chop.’  When trend is purely neutral and the TICK has not registered any noteworthy reading for hours …. the first extreme reading that it registers usually signifies
to technicians that an outsized price swing will soon follow.  Today’s
bearish instance is a perfect exemplar of this practical nuance within
technical analysis and just one of many which successful traders
effectively employ on a daily basis.

p.s.  beware the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern on the daily S&P cash (INX)

Disclosure: we anticipate becoming (1) considerably long the $DXY US
Dollar Index via DX futures; (2) about as short various commodity futures as
Danny Devito and (3) about as short the ES (S&P futures) as Verne Troyer,
once a multiple confluence of proper trading signals confirm themselves; during
any given session we may trade any of these instruments bi-directionally.

For similar technical takes, market calls and insights; please visit our brand
new website, www.fibozachi.com.  There, you can view
both our complete body of analytic work as well as detailed explanations of the
unique design development and technical methodologies within the proprietary
technical indicator packages that we use daily to perform a comprehensive technical
analysis of stocks, options, ETFs, bonds, futures and FOREX across interval periods of
time, tick and volume.

Comments

[successful_trader]

The charts are pretty and the colors are beautiful.  However, where is the content?

[Chopshop]

dude: you might wanna change your handle.

'the content' is on the hard right edge and its product sits on the bottom line.

[crzyhun]

Wellllll, very interesting. Some let the cat out of the bag last night.....gold was the key. Whoever thought that the jobs number were going to be this good...evidently the networks were live last night. Gold was the canary. And, really there is hiring going on???? More 'green shoots' right up there with Tiger. 

[maggitkd]

"almost always lead actual price action on the ES (S&P 500 futures, current basis December, ESZ09) by just a full second or two"

lol, nice lead time.

Agree 100% on your market view

[feeb]

I have had today (12/4) circled on my calendar for about 6 months. It's exactly 8.6 months from the market's low, according to Martin Armstrong's cycles. (3/18 + 365/12*8.6). We'll see how it plays out today, but I scaled into some SPY puts and FAZ calls at around 3 pm.

[Anonymous]

LOL!!! Those pesky dollarbugs, will they EVER learn? The dollar has NEVER gained in value over long-term and has lost over 95% of its buying power since it was first offered on the market and continues losing value to this day.

But hey, you can't argue or convince a dollarbug of the reality of the market no matter how many facts and proof you have, they just keep their mantra going every year hoping this year will be the turnaround for the dollar.

Of, and during this dollarbug time period gold went from $25/oz to over $1200/oz.

[gatopeich]

Thanks for sharing it Fibo!

I don't trade intraday but yesterday I wen't 75% short (the rest long gold!) a couple hours before your nice guess.

Just putting my money where my mouth is, regarding my observation of the S&P 30 minutes square wave. Got to observe a difference this time: the gap move has advanced to the end of the session, when it happened at the openning for the last 5 times. Not a big deal for the graph, but a qualitative difference in the way S&P was moving...

Today I'll just care of my real business (electronics). Hoping that gold can sustain the hit, but ready to buy if it is offered at discount.

Good luck!

[Chopshop]

thanks for your comment gatopeich.

And thanks to The Narrator ... a Chopshop & Fibozachi chat room is in the works ... coming soon to a Zero Hedge near you !

[12/3/2009 3:24:41 PM] <Chopshop> FUGLY here

[12/3/2009 3:24:47 PM] <Chopshop> very FUGLY

[12/3/2009 3:25:02 PM] <Chopshop> TICK DEAD

[12/3/2009 3:25:13 PM] <Chopshop> TICK DEATH SPIRAL testing price lows from sub 3 pm

[12/3/2009 3:25:23 PM] <Chopshop> TICK in a DEATH SPIRAL

[12/3/2009 3:25:58 PM] <Chopshop> FUGLY !!!!

[12/3/2009 3:26:35 PM] <Chopshop> EO through the floor here flatlined into the ground

[12/3/2009 3:26:38 PM] <Chopshop> NOT DONE YET

[12/3/2009 3:27:17 PM] <Chopshop> -889 TICK LOD

[12/3/2009 3:27:51 PM] <Chopshop> good fade trade almost ALWAYS from it

[12/3/2009 3:27:58 PM] <Chopshop> NOT DONE YET though

[12/3/2009 3:28:11 PM] <Chopshop> excellent volume !!

[12/3/2009 3:38:09 PM] <Chopshop> TICK retesting lows ... FUGLY again

[12/3/2009 3:38:24 PM] <Chopshop> big bounce setting up but NOT materializing

[12/3/2009 3:38:39 PM] <Chopshop> NOTHING beyond 1 min flashes or signals trying to form

[12/3/2009 3:38:42 PM] <Chopshop> going lower now

[12/3/2009 3:38:53 PM] <Chopshop> 338 ... one of my favorite times of day

[12/3/2009 3:40:34 PM] <Chopshop> so FUGLY here

[12/3/2009 3:41:30 PM] <Chopshop> new tick lows

[12/3/2009 3:41:57 PM] <Chopshop> its almost as if the TICK leads mkts... almost ! lol

[12/3/2009 3:43:28 PM] <Chopshop> tick lows beget what ???? lower rpices

[12/3/2009 3:44:11 PM] <Chopshop> next time window ... for apparently only barrybarry ... would be 15:48 ... 15:52 and then 15:58 ... NOTHING to do wtih actual trading .. simply machinations of the mkt

[12/3/2009 3:44:16 PM] <Chopshop> so FUGLY

[12/3/2009 3:44:40 PM] <Chopshop> new TICK lows and SLIGHT + divergences registering

[12/3/2009 5:05:14 PM] <Chopshop> please note .. this IS somewhat RANDOM ... the time period of 15:38

[12/3/2009 5:07:31 PM] <Chopshop> especially THAT one minute !! because it is when the old NYSE SPECIALIST "FREE-LOOK" would be digested & acted upon ... and even though that NYSE Spec Free-Lunch is NO LONGER issued OR "practical" it remains a fixture/ figment of idiosyncratic nuance within the machinations of Mr. Market

[12/3/2009 5:07:36 PM] <Chopshop> 3:38

[12/3/2009 5:08:11 PM] <Chopshop> will let everyone know when i finally take the time to write an article on it and "times" of day ... should do that soon

[12/3/2009 5:09:02 PM] <Chopshop> will save that one for a weekly column at the MTA.

[12/4/2009 3:19:25 AM] <Chopshop> ES up and into the 23.6 % upward retracement of the latest leg o' tankola, as measured from peak to trough

[12/4/2009 3:19:30 AM] <Chopshop> 1101.03

[12/4/2009 3:19:51 AM] <Chopshop> just 339 contracts traded up there at 1101 flat

[12/4/2009 3:20:25 AM] <Chopshop> 1101.00 level is just 0.52% of the total volume, as measured by aggregate contract sum, during tonight's session

[12/4/2009 3:20:47 AM] <Chopshop> just met and AS i'm writing what happens?

[12/4/2009 3:21:26 AM] <Chopshop> 3:19:56 206 sell, 3:19:56 60 sell and 3:20:54 76 sell

[12/4/2009 5:19:47 AM] <Chopshop> 1k buy sitting underneath at 1099

[12/4/2009 5:20:04 AM] <Chopshop> zach's 1 min ZMA lays at 1099.25

[12/4/2009 5:20:15 AM] <Chopshop> 1/55 EMA 1099.5

[12/4/2009 5:20:23 AM] <Chopshop> 1/13 EMA 1099.69

[12/4/2009 5:21:21 AM] <Chopshop> 1 min bull trigger has already plotted and the EO, Super ADX and Super DMI are each TRYING to round on the 1/2 min here at 05:21:10

[12/4/2009 5:22:29 AM] <Chopshop> LOL ... Super ADX and Super DMI are pointing firmly upward here ... still VERY light volume and NO confirmation, just a multiple confluence of high probability systematically quantified strategies, which is what we're all about here at Fibozachi

[12/4/2009 5:26:27 AM] <Chopshop> lazy action here even though we just saw a 58 at ask buy hit the tape at 05:21:17 and another for 150 contracts at 5:21:17 as well, which also saw a 64 contract sell at the bid go through at 05:13:17 .... hmmmm, EXACTLY 8 mins from the last large bid block to hit the tape for 55 contracts at the ask at 05:13:17 .. random exact 8-minute interval buy pulse ? maybe. anything is possible ... still NO confirmation of a scalp up

[12/4/2009 5:30:40 AM] <Chopshop> 1099 playing out right now. slowly.

[12/4/2009 5:30:47 AM] <Chopshop> no size yet whatsoever

[12/4/2009 5:31:29 AM] <Chopshop> here comes the first bounce attempt on a multiple confluence of 1/2 min + divergences, NOTHING confirmed yet !

[12/4/2009 5:40:47 AM] <Chopshop> 144th minute from the 1101 intra-bar upper price extreme of 03:16 is upcoming in 15 seconds at 05:41:00

[12/4/2009 5:42:54 AM] <Chopshop> since first closing at 1099.50 at 02:03 price has gone nowhere but sideways

[successful_trader]

Is this a chat room or a monologue?   Where is the discussion of issues?

[Anonymous]

"For similar technical takes, market calls and insights; please visit our brand new website, www.fibozachi.com. There, you can view both our complete body of analytic work as well as detailed explanations of the unique design development and technical methodologies within the proprietary technical indicator packages that we use daily to perform a comprehensive technical analysis of stocks, options, ETFs, futures and FOREX across interval periods of time, tick and volume."

Almost as good as Goldman gobbeldygook.

But it sounds erudite, so I'm sure you'll land some customers.

Good luck with the multi-syllablic mumbo jumbo. I'll just continue to play in the sandbox that I know.

[Anonymous]

Long live it's always sunny!

[Grand Supercycle]

Daily charts are breaking down and i'm still expecting USD rally.

http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/market-outlook-0

[omi]

Yeah, breadth, AD, TICK are the key to trading. I have no idea how I was trading without them!

One of the screens on TOS that I have for displaying internals.

http://img705.imageshack.us/img705/1041/internals.png

for a good description have a read:  http://www.shadowtrader.net/glossary.shtml

Happy trading!

[Anonymous]

Good job Fibozachi these look solid on VOLD and VIX

[crzyhun]

thanks, futures @ 22:14 mixed to slight up. WHAT is killing gold? Venezuala is killing it middle class and natting more banks. Maybe that is it, no flight to quality now.

[aaronvelasquez]

Eventually all us po folks have to sell our gold to eat.

[gatopeich]

Nothing is killing gold. Only the manic pumpers are leaving it. I don't believe they will hurt it too much, since they are late-comers.

[AndrewWJewell]

Gold ----- Ben gave a speech supporting strong gold

[Fibozachi]

thx for taking the time to leave a comment, crzyhun.

Just rebooted our systems in advance of europe's rolling open but do believe it is safe to surmise that the GCG10 will plot a Dragonfly candlestick pattern on the 55 minute interval period ... and while short-term measures of momentum are abating & just beginning an attempt to round upward, price action has traced out a very narrow range for the past few hours, which would 'normally' imply a pause to consolidate to catch breathe and allow those short-term measures of momentum to effectively "reset" themselves before a continuation of the prevailing trend, of immediately greater degree ... BUT ... NO key short term horizontal band of support has been broken. 

to keep things simple: 1st band of short-term horizontal support surrounds 1199.90 (a large cluster of real bodies .... and the 2nd band of short-term horizontal support surrounds an important inflection at 1188.40, whose character implies one of two distinctly different things:

1) either a breakaway thrust to kickoff a move whose next overhead target would surround 1340;

2) or an impulsively exhaustive gasp of oxygen that basically just grabbed $12xx and double-topped at $1227.50 ... while the DX/ $USD failed a new low on the daily / 144-minute, yet remains without any clear signal with confirmation or secondary confirmation of an actual bottom.  gold bugs & dollar bears still firmly retain control and the tide has yet to truly shift.  when and if it does, we'll try our best to letcha know within these pages.

taking a much needed break here for a bit to go nuke my ham, egg n cheese on a sesame from 05:45 and watch the league & sunny in philly (props to tom lennon and danny devito, the only folks right now who even come close to tim & eric). remember folks: breakfast is the most important meal of the day!