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Updated: "Inflation" and "Risk Trades" Again...
Another harried day where the dollar sells off and the robots immediately start buying anything and everything associated with "risk". Anxiety is building. Many hedge fund managers have already cashed out having "made their year", and are now sitting on a Caribbean beach somewhere. Other more enterprising, hungrier gamers are hunkered down in snowstorms staring bug-eyed at the screens trying to get a jump on the "hot trade" for 2010.
Lots of guys are trying to eek out another 2 - 3% prior to the year end statement print.
Wonder how the guy who sold GOOG at $580 feels like now, that the stock is up another $10 today?
Meanwhile, low volume and lack of participants means huge moves for those left behind in Greenwich punching the F12 keys.
Here's one "risk trade" that bottlerocketed today:
A timely upgrade of newspaper stocks blew out some shorts on Gannett and New York Times:
With the millions in unemployed hocking used stuff on eBay, this stock is now breaking out of the infamous "flat base" oft touted by Wm. O'Neil..
But don't forget the ongoing acute, chronic, persistent shortage of shopping malls and plazas.
"With a focus on high-growth, attractive U.S. markets, Macerich®(NYSE: MAC) is one of the country's largest owners,
operators and developers of major retail properties. Key markets
include Arizona, California, the New York City metropolitan area, and
suburban Washington, D.C.".
Still not convinced we really start a maniacal panic run into year end, until and unless these financials convincingly break out over the 50-day.
Too bad that Christmas vacation will find many a fund manager running to the computer screens 10 times a day starting Monday, as nobody wants to be left behind on the next breakout or failure in this group.
Now I will leave the rest to Rasputin, my illustrious compadre over at Wall Street Bear chat. He's been absent for a few weeks, no doubt watching slack-jawed at the recent tape action like the rest of us...
From the "This can't go on even one more minute!" department...
Rasputin - Wed, Dec 23, 2009 - 10:49 AM
...comes this screed from Karl Denninger:
http://market-ticker.org/archives/1752-There-Is-No-Way-Out-Of-This-Box.....html
(Ras note: if link won't work, please go to Karl's site and scroll down to the chart showing debt growth.)
Yep, just as I have been screeching on-and-off for literally
thirty years now, Denninger is adamant that the US can't run up even
one more penny's worth of debt.
Yeah, right.
Somebody needs to inform poor Karl that BOTH Federal Reserve credit AND foreign debt holdings increased last week.
Just like they will this week.
And next week.
And next month.
And next year.
In perpetuity.
Forever and ever, amen.
Perhaps even Karl will finally give in, throw up his hands,admit
that "Infinite Fiat" is indeed infinite, and get on with his life."
................
Poor Karl. He could have bought GOOG with both hands at the March lows, and ridden his account up non-stop with little or no worry of pullbacks, corrections, set backs, etc.
Living large like these guys...
Instead, he's been ranting and raving and venting to no avail...
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Patriot Coal (PCX) has room to run further:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PCX&t=2y
That was a nice play to load up on back in March. What's going to be hot in 2010? I am hoping solars but some of my buddies are loading up on wheat (physical and some stocks).
Perhaps you didn't notice the sarcasm in RobotTrader's post?
Stocks are just getting warmed up in Leoville, more kool aid please.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nBeUGqeYsQg
Apparently not.
Maybe the PCX and Durham trades will work out,
having gone up 10 and four times already,
but Holidays are a horrible time to trade long
thin air at the top...
I covered my short on RDN today with a nice 10% gain in about 4 trading hours. Lesson to the 19 year old gamers out there, don't try to make your year going long those names, you will get your ass handed to you.
The USA needs a MASSIVE all states-wide strike and grind the country to a halt.
No production, no shopping, no public transportation... and may as well do a run on the banks too and withdrawal all funds.
Without a huge countrywide demonstration that grind things to a halt like those seen in France and other countries, the sheeple of the USA will continue to be worker drone/slaves. ZeroHedge could organize or at least start a campaign for such a strike... which also includes a run on the banks.
Don't do a run on the banks, do a run on Treasuries.
I've commented on this several times.
There are a limited supply of Treasuries.
The banks go short Treasuries.
ORLY? ROFL!!!
Crash the banksters first imho as J6P has no treasuries.
BANK RUN TIME!
Lets get our best players from each state to go play 'king of the hill' in DC.
Winner yells: "Give me liberty, or give me death!"
thats the best idea I've heard this year. Give the power back to the people.
“Woe unto them that call evil good, and good evil; that put darkness for light, and light for darkness; that put bitter for sweet, and sweet for bitter!” (Isaiah 5:20)
"If you are not careful, the newspapers will have you hating the people who are being oppressed and loving the people who are doing the oppressing."
- Malcolm X
The image was painted of the sub-prime borrowers being responsible for all of this and of the likes of Bernanke et al being the good guys who are fixing things.
Yup, up is down...
Amen to that.
btw...been meaning to ask...who is your avatar?
Thanks for the Denniger rant. I am unfamiliar with his work. But in my holiday apathy I really came in here to see a hot chick. :p But, as good old Stan from South Park says "You know, I learned something today......."
Everything is short term - tomorrow is too far in the future.
Glad you noticed Macerich. Up 6.51% (much more midday) after a dramatic and unexpected decline in new home sales, not to mention GDP revised down more than expected yesterday.
Also, Simon Property Group (SPG) is back to 2006 levels, having retraced all of 2005 since August. 2008 bubble peak levels can't be too far in the future, right?
MAC is the most heavily shorted shopping mall REIT. Every day this week has been nothing but trading desks finding the most heavily shorted names, piling in to cause a big cover pop, and then moving on to the next one.
As we all know, SPG is simply a fantastic company! Prime Outlets offer so much value--selling shit at higher prices than retail--and that acquisition will be immediately accretive. Oh-I forgot-I'm long June ATM puts on Vornado--and SPG is next. Once they've stuffed all the REITs in Mom and Pops Christmas stockings and Valentines cards, look out below.
+1
found the answer. seems the plan will be to turn all malls into casinos!
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/12/21/AR2009122103478_pf.html
I was coming here with a demand to get some MAC coverage, and Robo does not disappoint. Additionally, MAC was off about 3 large pre-market and clicked three large higher at its apex today. So much for earnings influencing share prices. Hey Reggie, haya doin? GGP was playing this scene last year, but Benake had not transferred ownership of private real estate to the state sector yet. Does anyone see what is going on here?
Why would anyone want to short a chip stock in this market? 36% of the float in STEC is short. Looking at the 3 month chart it looks like that big gap is about to get filled. Could be a well executed short squeeze.
http://img22.imageshack.us/i/spo1hiresy.jpg/
Just like......markets can be irrational longer than you can stay solvent (or something like that)....eventually markets get religion and behave. Karl is right in his analysis...and the markets will agree....eventually. I really hope I am all in and on the right side of that trade. I could retire by the end of that year.
At some point the liquidity pump will end and it will be the shorting opportunity of a lifetime (well, maybe not a lifetime, it seems to happen relatively frequently the last 10 years).
In the meantime I have made a pretty penny shorting some of these beaten down specialty finance companies like RDN and MBI that ocassionally rally for some unknown reason, I think Whitney Tilson called them "the gift that keeps on giving", I'd have to agree.
* IF they don't ban short selling when it all unravels!
Oh, don't worry - they will. The SEC will make the announcement that all short selling is banned, and that all short positions will be invalidated, save for those that are made by Goldman Sachs. The ban will be lifted once the market has plummeted 50% and stabilized, in order to trap even more short selling suckers into the mix. Wash, Rinse, Repeat.
I love that little animation at the end, Robo. How to copy it?
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user971/imageroot/co...
I've seen a four-second version of it many times before - the original speed is a lot more horrific - swingin' eyeballs. Wow.
The .gif is fantastic.
Once had a conversation with Mish in NY where he said Denniger was a bit over the top.
I then said something along the lines of 'the Fed has a plan', and Mish started screaming 'Bernanke is an idiot' and proceeded to emulate that .gif.
That goes up on the board.
off topic
At least this Dec 23 PM the folks over at HuffPo seem to be getting more and more frustrated by the day (judging by the headlines):
REMATCH: MCCAIN FIGHTING TO TAKE BACK REFORM MANTLE FROM OBAMA
The Rational Case For 'Kill The Bill'
Dem Rep. Louise Slaughter: Senate Bill Isn't Health Reform
Jane Hamsher, Grover Norquist Call For Rahm Emanuel's Resignation
Obama Accused Of Abandoning Health Care Principles In New Ad
November New Home Sales Sink 11%, Lowest Level Since April
Carl Bernstein: US Congress Is Corrupt, Systemically Broken
Dem Congressman Demands Up-Or-Down Vote On Afghan Escalation
FDIC Strangely Resembling A Private Investor
Caller Asks GOP Senator If He Prayed 'Hard Enough' For Byrd To Die
Guantanamo Closure Delayed By Another Full Year
When is all this fuck-shit going to end? Will it be dis-continuous? Will there be a market? Or will all be swell? All the economic stats are worse-than-expected or even outright crappy (eg. new home sales) and nobody gives a toss. Never seen anything like it. Goebbels couldn't have benn prouder.
Here's a funny one from Trader Joe over at Cap Stool:
Hey, she's not the only one in this recession that just learned she can eat the whole pizza now.
yeah but black guys love the badonka donk
http://comedians.jokes.com/lisa-lampanelli/videos/lisa-lampanelli---black-guys
Juaquin Iglesias wears #17 for the Bears.
Anyone see a resemblance???
LOL....
is there an ETF for camel toe?
Sorry Andy,
This one is better....LOL...
if we're in the scarring business, i'd like death by a thousand cuts please
tnx
I bet most of you are already short underwater or afraid to short the market...
Despite it going up, when it goes down it is alot worse.. In % variation...
The bull market gets us really tired because it's like a slow chinese torture... But to the bear pockets it's not as destructive as a bear market is to a bull's pocket. At least these days that we have a secular double top on the S&P500 and a market riding a wall of worry on low volume.
Maybe you are intelligent and are long the market since the bottom though... Or maybe you didn't have balls that time either. My point being, if the market is very overextended, it doesn't fall at all, it looks like a short squeeze, it may be one... Just remember what happened to the Hunt brothers in the 70s and short the market to counter that short squeeze. Stop trying to organize riots or credit card companies destructions.
Do you think that volatility is settling out? And no I don't want to talk VIX.
Investment isn't finding its way to productive output, only in speculation based on collapsing businesses and consolidation. This is ALL a downward spiral. There is no up-trend -growth*- to be seen.
* Growth is the byproduct of productive work, what the non-producing rulers/powers siphon of off for their existence.
The same minds that brought us to this juncture have run out of fuel. They've run out of mental capacity (if they really ever had it to begin with, which I contend they did not).
The best play is to short the whole game. Apply one's energy outside the existing imploding system.
While there will be some people still trying to cash in, they will be cashing in on fading fiat dollars. At some point the only thing that they'll have is the satisfaction of gloating, of winning the "game;" and then? And then the game doesn't restart. Hm, what are the insulative properties of paper currencies?
Thanks for playing!
"The best play is to short the whole game. Apply one's energy outside the existing imploding system."
while i completely agree, i fear it's a little bit like saying "well, I bailed out *my* part of the titanic..." :^)
if the ship goes down, even most of those "knowing" folks will go down with it... it's too big to disconnect from completely.
as far as investing in productive output, it's my deepest hope that those left standing after this mess will do so after the dust settles. most of us are in a dinghy in a storm, and just holding on until morning. it's a bit rough to project too far out in this environment... "all in good time?"
"throw up his hands,admit that "Infinite Fiat" is indeed infinite, and get on with his life."
Stock market aside, how is "infinite fiat" working out for Zimbabwe?
i think you mis-read his meaning.
it's not as if robo is saying KD is wrong, i believe he's noting that if KD were right, the world would have ended about 20 times in the last 30 days (weekends discounted), and that's just not healthy.
KD is correct in his concern that all of that funny-money out there would decimate our system if it fell out of the PTB net that's holding it back, but *somehow* (most ZH'rs wonder too) it keeps holding. I agree with KD that it *will* break someday, but until then, i'm hedging my finances, coaching my kids teams, having friends over for dinner, etc.
KD and G-Beck provide a sensational/exaggerated view of the *real* problems, that *will* come to haunt us. I value these reminders *and* their format, as they keep me from getting complacent, and as many say, reminding me to keep my powder dry.
A Merry Christmas to you RobotTrader...
Something for your stocking...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V5bYDhZBFLA
More "outsized" moves today....
Almost a "breakout", but not quite....
This one has already "popped out"....
LOL...