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It's Hunker Down Time
What a difference a day makes. European sovereigns implode, and hedge funds of every race, gender, stripe, color, and ethnic origin hits the "dump button" on risk assets and immediately flee back to dollars and bonds.
Not just the wildebeests. Everyone.
It is really getting comical. With thousands, if not millions of "money managers" now 100% invested in items which can be dumped, deleted, ejected, and thrown out with a simple mouse click, virtually everyone stampedes in one direction or another at once.
Nobody, I mean nobody, is going to take any chances this year of enduring another 65% crash in stocks. So when moving averages and trendlines are broken, its pretty much everyone out of the pool!!!
Today's selling was particularly acute, as there were few places to hide, and virtually every sector was getting sold. Nobody was going to be waiting around to see if the 200-day was going to hold or not.
And then tomorrow we have the McJobs report.
Who is going to hold stocks into that report?
Nobody.
Is it any wonder why nobody invests in private equity, mezzanine debt, alternative investments, etc.?
If you can't mouse click it out of your portfolio, forget about it.
It's Hunker Down time!!
And by the way, everyone notice how Treasuries and the Dollar were skying today? Now its up to the Fed and the Treasury Department to print and offload trillions right now when the getting is good.
They have to do whatever it takes to keep McMansion prices propped up, otherwise, the Fed's balance sheet and the balance sheets of all the commercial banks are going to head into a Thermonuclear Meltdown.
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I guess stay long the DXY until the March FOMC - when they most likely extend QE. Then go overweight the Yen.
That would be an historically bad move.
Get out of risk assets while you can, it's over, game over! The Canadian dollar got clobbered today along with crude prices. Solars are melting away faster than an ice cube in the Sub Saharan desert:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=csiq,eslr,fslr,jaso,ldk,sol,solf,spwra,stp,tsl,yge
SELL FIRST, ask questions later! Of course, everything will change tomorrow morning, in a big way. Fear & Greed. Plus ça change plus c'est pareil.
Today's market action:
Most active gainers:
NYSE
Nasdaq
Amex
Most active decliners:
NYSE
Nasdaq
Amex
Hilarious. You wonder why no one likes you.
Please stop, you are hurting my feelings...LOL!
Yeah, Leo, today is just a one-off, not a trend change or anything like that; not a "the-emperor-has-no-clothes moment"; not a Wiley Coyote catching an anvil with 10,000 ft of air underneath him moment.
Nah, dat 'ol employment number will sho nuf set things right, sound as a pound, says Mr. Leo.
I will compliment you Leo for keeping your elan, yr esprit de corps while getting your ass pounded. So, you have that going for you.
by Leo Kolivakis
on Sun, 12/13/2009 - 09:46
#161969
And who the hell are you? Another pension pussy or dimwhit investment banker with his head up his ass?
Ugh, Leo! Granted not all of us were nice about this--but we told you so. Hope you made out okay, honey.
It ain't over till the fat lady sings. Give me a year.
Great stuff Leo. You give as good as you get. Do you have a sister?
lol.... poor LK.... there was a bounce, but keeping stops rocks too LK. But "Give me a year" should be famous last words :(
by Leo Kolivakis
on Fri, 12/04/2009 - 10:15
#152527
Stops are for myopic traders who twitch all day long. I am proud to tell you that I doubled and tripled down on some of my long-term solar positions after they fell 50% because I knew they were being manipulated by the big hedge funds. That's called conviction and knowing where the big macro picture lies.
Leo
Just a little advise from someone who lived through the “Green Movement-1.0”. I lived the “Birkenstocks” movement 30 years ago and the hyperbole was even greater then. Mother Earth News was promising that the Eco-utopia moment was now, circa 1972-77 (pick any year). Enviro-Green technology would run everything from cars, to houses, to trains. We were all going to grow our own food and live healthier. The “boomers” were going to usher in the return to nature.
We all know how that turned out.
So now that the money & greed thing didn’t work out, aging hippies are once again digging through their closets’ to see if they can salvage a lost ideal. And they’re trying to sell a retread as a new tire.
Don’t misunderstand; Green will eventually have to work. When all the other cheaper alternatives are exhausted. We just haven’t exhausted enough cheap stuff to make the solar world economically viable.
Then as now, the Right call. Just 60-80 years ahead of it’s time.
So be careful going long, unless that long is Xtra long.
You are leaving yourself wide open for a haymaker.
Just because humans will be using solar power doesn't mean people who buy the common stocks of today's crop of publicly traded "solar energy companies" will make money. In fact, it could be possible to lose all or most of your money trying.
You could be right on the "macro picture", as you say, and still go bankrupt.
The internet actually did turn out to be everything they said it would in the mid top late 90's. Damn near everyone who tried lost their ass buying internet stocks, and damn near all of those companies don't even exist today.
Hope you know what you're doing.
Which is also why you shouldn't buy gold on margin...
+ 1,000,000
Thats called averaging down,
great way to loose big
"Never add to a losing trade". Or something like that.
In the early 1980's, when he was managing barely $6 million, PTJ had a hand written sign above his desk which read, "Losers average losers".
PTJ now manages tens of billions and has a net worth in excess of $3 billion.
Maybe he was on to something way back when?
LK - While I do believe that discipline trumps conviction, I have the utmost respect for you and your posts on ZH.
To remain contrarian amongst this acutely polarized crowd takes some large attachments.
Kudos to you for holding your ground... and haven't you been on the right side of the trade for a long, long time now?
Thanks, and while it isn't always easy to convince people here, I remain undeterred. Don't forget, I've been battling MS for over 12 years now, so the Zero Hedge parasites can never get to me. Most traders can't look past their noses (occupational hazard). By the way, read my latest on the recovery in the jobs market:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/jobs-market-recovery-now-underway
Cheers.
A YEAR? Yeesh.
we all want you to survive, hence a health warning - do not hold on to losing positions in this climate. We know...
hey I go under many names, one is "more cowbell"
but you can keep it, the Fed will think it's u.
Hey nice avatar.
Smell u later
Hey look its Leo!
http://www.samuelsdesign.com/comics/big/cap_jr.jpg
OMFG! YOU MUST BE THE WORST TRADER EVER! DO YOU EVER MAKE MONEY??? Why even bother posting market action which is easily available to any 'tard with a yahoo finance bookmark...please stop posting your daily garbage...
Is it time for the FX swap inverse shroomed up slow motion implosion?
Did you buy volatility back there?
Harrisburg PA is at the edge of declaring bankruptcy. Another shimmer in the force.
Damn, the market sure took a whoopin today. I never thought that it would decline so fast. Now, with 2 minutes until the close... can the Dow hold 10000? Or will they send a message that it's game over?
I would love to see somebody push it through 10000 today. It doesn't look like it'll happen though.
YAY!!! It happened! It had like 20 seconds to go and somebody simply didn't take no for an answer!
HELL yeah!
WTF? How could it go back over 10000 after the close? That's some bullshit.
Another tradette who doesn't know that trades settle after the bell rings...as if today's close matters one way or another. Keep worrying about all the wrong things pal. Makes it easier for the rest of us.
It's just a number, anyways. The psychological meaning we add to it is just bs. The DOW is just bs. What isn't bs is that middle class people are unable to have savings (note, I'm talking about positive net worth, not 'savings' in terms of "look how much you saved by buying this piece of shit whatever), it is being stripped away at all times. Keep your eye on the ball!
PPT
Tomorrow is another day
The invisible hand is buying after hours as we speak, can't let the financials fall too fast.
You're assuming the invisible hand isn't a "Short" hand.
Cramer hasn't been pimping C for the past few months for nothing.
I figured the PPT would eventually back off and let it happen to get money flowing into treasuries again. I say DJ 5500 sometime in 2010.
If you go down in the woods today
You'd better not go alone.
It's lovely down in the woods today
But safer to stay at home.
For ev'ry bear that ever there was
Will gather there for certain, because
Today's the day the teddy bears have their picnic.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5D-13V7Zqwk
1030 s&p seems a bounce point
Now that we saw that post-close rebound to keep things above 10K, will Brian Williams finally admit the market is rigged?
Geez, you never heard of "market on close" orders? Those are orders entered during the day, to be filled at the close. If there's an imbalance of more sell than buy orders, the average will drop a bit after the close. If there are more buys than sells, the market will bounce a bit.
After two days when the Dow falls nearly 300 points, and especially when the market seems in free fall for the last half hour, there are a lot of traders who place a market on close buy order, expecting a bounce sometime tomorrow so they can scalp a few points. There's no freakin' conspiracy here, and if you'd ever watched CNBC between 4:00 and 4:05 pm, you'd have noticed the Dow continues to change a few points one way or the other every single day while, as Maria is wont to say, "trades settle out". Buy a clue, will you?
Hey there Dickweed I think he's talking about the closing print that WAS 9999.84 and now is showing 10,002.18.
Not to rain on your apocalyptic parade, it being so much fun and all, but it looks to me like a rerun of October earnings. Where will the shroom cloud video be on March 8th, if the S&P opens at 1166?
Keep drinking the koolaid 217808, reality is a hard way to go.
Quench your thirst now, 217914 - all your delusions have you in common.
Who's the cult victim now, smartass? Reality: 1122 You: vapor
S&P now 1134, reality boy. Where'd you go? Still stuck in your bomb shelter? How's it look in there? Wrong?
Now at 1145 and rising. What happened to all those cheery shroom-shaped clouds? Got any other short-shank cash you'd like to hand over?
CSCO puts, anyone?
the black boxes went wild on GLD this morning.
baby are you down?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oUbpGmR1-QM
The rapper even said down like the economy. The tune has a nice pop hook. But not as nice as the sax on Careless Whisper.
The events of the day were interesting, in that there was no real event. Just threats, and many got out of the pool, but there was no shark, but perhaps a turd. Now if there is a soverign default in Europe on Friday, we should see some real action.
Planning your moves so close to the wall, you will need a lot of discipline and speed to exit. But, as always the effect is non-linear in that buyers can vanish. If there is a real default, you may see the exchange halt trading. Which would prove the herd theories correct.
I am really wondering how connected the funds are in terms of pulling out of equities. My gut feeling was that a trigger event (crisis like a default) would initiate an exit, but I was unsure of the magnitude. The news on the radio said the fall in equities was due to geo-political events. I guess meaning the problem was framed in terms of soverign debt default. But, I am still waiting for a real event to judge the impact.
The more I watch the effects on equities the more I am confinced that it is almost meaningless in extrapolating its movement into our real economic challenges. Has the market unlinked from any vestige of economic relevancy?
Mark Beck
Leo will go all Bill Murray on that thing, insisting it is a candy bar.
attractive bull flag, eh andy?
So, like UST are the safe haven?
ROBO, and here i felt Roger Water's Radio K.A.O.S. would be better... or at least Kraftwerk. Actually, your chosen video/music is far better!
Domo arigato Mr. Roboto.
follow the wildebeest herd into UST (and oblivion thereafter)
Yes, none of the beasts in RT's pic are actually looking up for the "Exit" sign, they're just runnin' with the herd.
Epic-ness, right here.
This is where i will draw the line...
Epica - Never Enough (Dark Version)
www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5LXgjEXUGM
1030 es? as borat would say: NOTTTTTTT more like 995 on the es
Hmmmm ...Is the PPT plan to get equities going south so the treasury can get our debt unloaded ???? ah the old flight to quality !!!
F U Leo Last week you were telling everyone to buy and cheerleading cramer style about solar.
Wondering what the smart guru's at Goldman were thinking today. Were their HFT's pushing the sell button or did they lose control once more. Will History repeat itself? I wouldn't bet against it.
What they were thinking today, "Hehehe, ahHAHAHAHA! AHAHAHA! We are the masters of the universe! Everyone is confused as to how the manipulation will go day to day. Our moles from the EZ LIED about the trouble it was in, and people believed them! They always believe our lies because people are stupid. We however do GOD's work! Ah Ha HA!"
What they will be thinking a year from now when the gig is up, "Crap!"
still shorting their own shares so their bonus money buys more
I am NOT buying an ipad.
Oh, and this post gets a huge plus eleven.
Buy Silver, snitches.
Wait a sec. Where're all the almost naked chicks at?
cat string theory fully employed by the bot...cute pic ;)
The only thing worse than stocks... is GOLD!
Oh, and silver... even worse. Silver was down 6% today and is down 20% since Dec 1.
Deflation hurts. But stocks are fine.
-BBH
i agree, toss that old relic in the garbage, who needs the trouble of polishing silver?
Gold and silver really suck , cant grow nothing in it and makes a lousy ashtray.
Green paper money is best ... for making little flying things.
The Chinese are about to give us one hell of a paper mache lesson:
http://www.sea-way.org/blog/1dollar_origami10.JPG
Dont be afraid of excellent tech stocks.
Say this is Japan x2 in the US (deflation, look similar).
Nikkei is down 40% since 1995. But Nintendo is up 400%. Nintendo had a 350% run in the 90s, and then an 800% run in 03-07 bull market. Its up 11% annually since 1995.
Innovative tech stocks might do fine against deflation.
Not saying you're wrong, but those gains came when the Japanese could export to the US, no? Again, not saying you're wrong, but isn't that a consideration? Heck, maybe Chinese demand will replace US demand, at least for video games, since the Chinese are obviously going to have to spur domestic demand to replace lost exports.
also NES was dying and took a big chance with the DS and the Wii - both total new gambles and hit home runs. they had to fail and hit a home run for those 800% gains
that aint happening all the time..maybe another company
Those gold bulls got beat as bad as everyone else. Oh well. Maybe long USD and USTreasuries is the better bet for early 2010.
"gold bulls got beat as bad as everyone else"
Yeah right,
Gold has been up 15% every year since Clinton did the cigar trick in the big office.
Or 30 year Treasuries held since 1981 would have got you 15% annually.
"Is it any wonder why nobody invests in private equity, mezzanine debt, alternative investments, etc.?
If you can't mouse click it out of your portfolio, forget about it."
....how true and thanks for the laughs RT!
Love it!
Lets see how tomorrow looks; if another really bad day comes along, look for the EUtopians to do something this weekend to shore up their Club Med issues. My guess is that they will act this weekend if tomorrow is ugly. I think we will be OK in the short term. But if all we get is more "reassurances", this could get very ugly very fast.
http://themeanoldinvestor.blogspot.com/2009/11/sum-of-all-fears.html
Is it just me or are we now headed into a minefield of defaults at all levels of government and the private sector. This implosion of debt leads first to deflation, as money becomes dear, later, inflation, as newly created money makes money less dear. Essentially a repeat of 2007-2009.
yes(minefield)...yes(deflation)..and yes(inflation).
Robo, wanted to share a trick - even though ZH still doesn't want to approve my registration. Whenever the chinese invest big time in a private equity behemoth, we get the start of a plunge. Last time they took a big stake in Blackstone IPO. Now they took a bigger chunk in Apax in Europe. Tin hat time brothers and sisters.
ZH didn't approve my registration either,
several months back
No way for me to take credit for the crap I post
under anonymous!
Send an email to info@zerohedge.com; we have not denied any applications (without cause) and the response was probably lost in the mail.
Hey Robo, Id like to read your resume sometime. Your analysis is so asstute I feel like a woman looking under the hood of a car when I read it. Theres a lot of parts there I dont understand but I could check your oil. Those are some fantastic mushroom clouds in that video but that larnyx rip job of a vocal is so wanting using a Myxolydian mode scale where a Phrygian would do. Let me know and Ill send you a picture of my mushroom cloud. Nice talking to ya again.
CMI
(chuckling mildly inside)
If you have Cramers' dump truck Leo, it's a good time to buy the solar dip? Shit!
I almost pressed the buy button on an FAZ order last night when a little devil appeared on my shoulder and whispered,
"Patience, the Fed ain't done, yet." I hesitated and lost, happily. Sitting on the same amount of cash today that I had at the end of yesterday is just fine with me.
For anyone with a short-term memory issues, my sympathies. Today's stock price action has little to nothing to do with Iran's threat to do something profoundly wicked on February 11. The market appears determined to remain "no comment" on that issue. I am not as wise as the market.
It's possible that the Fed and Treasury want a medium sell-off for several reasons: 1) Quiet all the rumor-mongers that think they are the "invisible hand" under the market, 2) Gauge investor confidence in the stock market after close to a year of steady gains, and 3) after "letting her ease down a bit", buy it back slowly with printed money.
After all, how do you think the Fed is reflating the money supply? It's not through bank credit. They are pushing new money into the system through the stock market. So look for a sell down to an obvious neck line and then spending some time forming a H&S or some other painfully obvious pattern. But there is more downside, this won't be a one day sell-off.....too obvious. Give it 3 or 4 weeks to settle out.
Leo: Rule number one. Take what the market gives you. So Leo if everyone is selling and you are the only one buying then that means "You dont really understand the problem".
And if you waited for any position to drop 50 percent and still have not sold any of it, let this grizzled veteran tell ya all, the story of Lava Cap (deep oil driller in 1980).
I loved it so much I wanted to go to Oklahoma to watch the wells being completed. After watching it go from $18 to $2 , I go to the annual meeting. Only me and one newspaper reporter in attendance . At the meeting I find out I have more shares than the president. You see Leo even he had sold out.
best of luck with your solar.
Signed : Pasquale... fellow Canadian.
spx 950 at the minimum in 2 weeks.
Fool on the hill?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/our-debt-time-bomb-is-ready-to-go-ka-bo...
With $150 Billion in bonds/bills on tap for next week I say this was a FED/Treasury dump job (like toyota US built cars?) to get full participation in the debt sales after the zero they got by indirects last 21 day sale.
Hey Robo. I love your articles, my favorite ZH author. Thanks for understanding that stories have pictures, and that sex sells. A nice pair of in the face, makes anything more... intelligible.
My response to your article....
Picture
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/44070000/jpg/_44070830_kayebrown416300.jpg
Everything is ok, people.
http://www.wikivorce.com/divorce/images/stories/jreviews/7481_Himalayas055_1251137599.jpg
Prosperity, is just over the next rise.
ha
FUGLY... just fargugly man. The outlook for the next 25 years, makes me want to puke.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sVxUUotm1P4
Sex sells but who can buy in this economy?
Nope. Sex always sells, no matter what. Then again, we are living in the Holocene extinction event, and there are few buttons ever made by humankind that have gone ever unpushed. Sex sells, buttons get pushed. Immutable laws of the physical existence, it would seem.
+1
Always like reading your posts.
A curious thing happened yesterday (Thursday, February 4th). Both the stock markets and precious metals markets declined. Traditionally, they have moved in opposite directions, but we are living in curious times. I took advantage of the dip and bought some more silver. (I hope that you do likewise, on dip days. I've mentioned that countless times in SurvivalBlog. Has i\t sunk in?)
Sweden is stepping in to stop the Euro's fall.
Robo,
I believe you're overstating the amount of selling that took place.
Back in Fall 2008, huge-cap stocks like XOM, T, KO et al. were doing volume 2-3x what we saw, today, which could be catagorized as somewhat above average.
Pasquale - Hilarious story.
I feel your pain. Years ago as a newbie to the market, I refused to sell a stock and rode it down from $10 to .01. I have kept it as reminder not to be such an complete idiot again.
The stock is now called WHLM WILHELMINA INTERNATIONAL INC COM I can't recall what it was named when I bought itStupid stock was up 10% today to .011 making me a whole dollar richer.
Time to sell Leo.
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