It's Not Just Us...

Tyler Durden's picture

...who have reached a level of complete disgust with equity markets in a period of unprecedented central planning. Here is Peter Tchir of TF Market Adivsors asking some very critical questions, which would probably be best directed to the Great Chairsatan.

From Peter Tchir of TF Market Advisors

Is it just me or is the price action getting more difficult to explain?  Being wrong is not new.  Being right for the wrong reasons is also not new, but usually you can at least point to some bit of data or news and see how it impacted the market.

For the past week I've been struggling to even do that.  One day stocks are up on news that Japan is less bad than feared, which would make sense except the Nikkei was down that day.

Some days rising oil prices are bad.  Others its good.

Economic data has been just as confusing.  We rally on bad numbers.  We rally on good numbers.  We sell off on good numbers.  We sell off on bad numbers.

US stocks rally on Irish stress tests, but Irish bonds sold off on the stress test,  but European CDS tightened, but US credit widened.  Go figure.

Some bonds are bid without, others are offered without, and again, no obvious reason for such a discrepency.

The only useful inside information would be which stocks Warren is going to buy, but I'm told that's not actually inside information. 

Maybe I'm the only one confused and find the moves hard to explain and can't figure out why the relationships between markets is breaking down, but I suspect I'm not the only one, and its not necessarily a good thing.  SPX 1200 or SPX 1400?  Who knows?  I'm not even sure I know what news would take us to either one.

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Thomas's picture

Been posting how my jaw drops daily watching the market. The bots are in control.

the mad hatter's picture

Didn't you get the memo Peter?

You need to BTFD with every TPS report.

TaxEstate's picture

Yeah... I'm gonna need you to go ahead and BTFD.

Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

It is the invisible hand of the successor to the PPT ( Plunge Protection Team ): the PPTT ( Positive Price Trajectory Team ). The original acronym "PPT" assumes the first "P" will be allowed. Such a naive, antiquated notion, in the brave, new Era of QE.

Banjo's picture

If you are not buying gold.  Barber Bernanke he will happily give you a haircut on your lifes savings.


MightyZum's picture

Stop complaining and BTFD . . .

taraxias's picture

What FD? There ain't even any more dips to but FFS.

The ChairSatan had discovered perpetual motion.

Id fight Gandhi's picture

There hasn't been any dips. Japan fell apart, but that took 3% off and put it right back on in a few days. Big deal.

Who the fuck will buy price line at 510 here?

FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

There will be no normal ever again.

"Order out of chaos" - The motto of the New World Order.

pazmaker's picture

who would junk you for that comment.. it's spot on!

TIMMAYYY's picture

who would of thunk he would start an online blog to inform, he was doing so well with the soap.

DutchTreat's picture

Jeez, stop whining. This market is crowded with machines because smart money is on the sidelines. Once the balance tips, the machines will reinforce the move. Just make sure you're ready for that day. Until that time: follow Mighty Zum's tip: BTFD.

jkjacksonhole's picture

Thanks to the FED for meddling and destroying free markets. A dart board is a great education. All the techanical education is worthless these days.

Pedro's picture

Will they be able to continue their $4 prescription plan?

RealitiveMind's picture

My deepest sympathy on the loss of your reality.

Perhaps there is a new reality just around the corner.

earnulf's picture

I find the most peace and serenity in deciding what I wish to own and buying it at a price I wish to purchase at and not giving a frigging care as to what happens day to day.

My silver glows quite nicely and the golden highlights are calming.

Although one must exist in the now, one can plan for tomorrow with the caveat that no one will take care of me, but me.   No one will care for my family, but me.

If I'm wrong, I'll shrug my shoulders and accept it.   If I'm right, then I have been wise in my preparations.

I may review my long term positions day to day and adjust as needed, but I don't lose sleep over it.    Find what is of real value and treasure it.

SilverRhino's picture

Silver grows well.  My quandy is whether I should pick up a bunch of copper rounds too.   10 more oz of silver or a bag of 250 oz av copper art rounds .... tough call.


SamuelMaverick's picture

Go with silver or gold,  go with what has been and continues to be real money.

Paul Krugman's picture

This is what happens when the market is manipulated by the FED. I really wouldn't be surprised to find out that the FED is actually purchasing ES directly and/or through a proxy. 

jkjacksonhole's picture

They have already admitted to it.

redpill's picture

The stock market has become an pointlessly complex and inexplicable Woody Allen movie.


nkktwotwozero's picture

Bermuda Triangle of finance::

NYFed to the north, DCFed to the south, and BOJ to the east.

Covers a lot of ground.

SignsAndWonders's picture

Maybe inglip will provide some insight.

nkktwotwozero's picture

Insight? No.

Just squiggly lines to interpert the best we can.

Very much like certain investment methodologies...

REALTRADE's picture


Korrath's picture

I've spent the last few months trying to figure out what that constant low level grinding noise in the background was.  Thought I was developing tinnitus.  

Turns out it was just the equity markets tearing free from reality.

Amish Hacker's picture

Right. And all that ringing was just Warren's cash register.

rubearish10's picture

Maybe I'm the only one confused and find the moves hard to explain and can't figure out why the relationships between markets is breaking down, but I suspect I'm not the only one, and its not necessarily a good thing. ....

Great and now I'm relaxed 'cause for a while, I thought I had painted myself into a corner.

AR15AU's picture

I could have written that article like 2 years ago.

ghostfaceinvestah's picture

No kidding.  Has he seen the performance of the Zimbabwe stock market?  Or Weimar Germany?

For that matter, just look at the price of the market using silver or gold as a basis.

The rise in the stock market is no great mystery. The great unknown is, what happens if/when the printing presses are turned off.

I think we saw a preview last spring...

Milton Waddams's picture

Let me help this fellow out:  Bernanke is Ivan Pavlov, quantitative easing is his bell, and you are one of his dogs.

nobusiness's picture

New High in IWM.  Don't know why.  Maybe small caps sell radioactive protective suits, maybe the companies that sell concrete, Maybe they sell bullets, tanks, body bags, bandaids, artificial limbs, etc.

Boilermaker's picture

IYR ready to pop 52 week highs, again.  Pay no attention to the fucking plywood on the abandoned stores.  It's a mirage.

Cdad's picture


You know what that plywood is...opportunity, baby!  Rip the boards off the front of that strip mall, lever it up 10:1 on mezzanine debt, IPO some shares at the NYSE [where Duncan Niederauer is perpetually out to lunch or taking a dump], and use the "slosh" to buy some SPG, while also using the margin in your account to short silver.

American Dream, baby!


Cdad's picture

Dear Mr. Tchir,

First, buy another vowel.

Second....there is no market.  There is only the wasteland that Ben Bernanke made, and the impressionist painting that the BlowHorn [CNBC] holds up for us to see how pretty it all that we do not see all the criminal syndicate Wall Street bankers running wild everywhere.

The market perpetually rewards the last and the dumbest and the shortest-sighted trader, entering at the closing bell, speaking some drivel like, "Because Japan has been destroyed, it is good news for [     ] stocks."  K?

Ease up on the fluoride, man...that shit will kill you if you overdo it.

No disrespect intended.


ShankyS's picture

Just like Japan and TEPCO fighting a nuclear disaster that was doomed
from the start so is what the Fed is doing with financial crisis.
Admitting defeat and that you can’t keep the dream alive is tough
medicine to take. Desperate moves in the last hours by the greedy ones to
get out what you can lead to more damage than needed to be caused.This sucks.

dcb's picture

It's the hft, dude.....

you haven't figured out the computer algo. it goes down when the boys want it to go down. a lower open if down the prior day is a buy signal, in fact lower opens are buy signals. the reason is that if the boys owned the night before, and they sold on the lower open, it  would be a loss. that is not allowed.

the easiest way to make money is to program the computer the night before and ignore the news. just figure out the patterns, and realize the us staock market has nothing to do with reality anymore, it is just a bunch of algos.


the trick is to figure out when the algo's are running or humans.

for instance on the way up, if you buy the short at the low  of yesterday, this is a common sell signal. picked up by the algos as rapid selling so to them it is a buy.  the close always above low the day before.


you draw that low on a trend line and that is the buy point the following day.


there are no gaps down, so never use a simple buy stop, and it will never gap low  of the day before. take the tlt (20 year treasury).

the open gap means buy tbt, then get near top of yeaterday, seel and buy tlt. if you owned treasury's last night, better sell on the gap.


always use a buy stop limit, because the gap will be filled, and you can almost always bee assured that if you traded the way a human would do it, you will loose money.  

if you open lower, by a small  amount OK to try a short, never on a large amount.


I find the hourly MACD on the s and P is rather usesfull, and if you want to go in and out often the 10 minute MACD works really well. data has nothing to do with it at all.


tomm. Firday, never be short on friday, or be sitting in from of your computer. if it gaps down they will buy all the way up,if you go up, they buy all the way up. I think they like a thing before going into the weekend.


if I short it may be at close friday as a hedge for bad weekend news, or on monday.


please don't tell me you don't see the pattern on this rise in the s and p.

Debtless's picture

JPM borrowed $95B from the Fed Discount Window the docs revealed.

They said they borrowed nothing. Fuck them.

Boilermaker's picture

Well, it depends on what the definition of 'borrow' is.  I guess.

SDRII's picture

$95B s not even a months worth auction. Plus they were only leading the other mules to the water - wasn't that the meme

Revolution_starts_now's picture

@ .025 I'm not sure you could call it borrowing. It's more like the Bernank jacked them off with 95 billion dollars.


Hey Ben do me next!!!

mendigo's picture

is it possible that superimposed on the sureal world created by bernanke - where-in "up" is the new "down" and "insolvent" is the new "affluent" (or at least no big deal). the market is interpreting bad news as good because it supports QE3. (is it the same people attacking bernanke for devaluing the dollar and then attacking him for proposing to end the printing or is it really two different groups - i've lost track)

The Axe's picture

I feel your pain Bro....I hope my other version in George World, a parallel universe is makinng lots of money and getting banged. But it is true market broken....Don't tasr me bro...

carbonmutant's picture

The reason "price action getting more difficult to explain" is because the majority of the trades are not being done by hormone based logic systems.