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It's Official: Iran Says It Will Send 2 Warships Through Suez Canal
After nothing happened last night, following Egypt's statement that it had not received a request to allow Iranian warships through the canal, PressTV has just announced that an Iran Navy official says the 2 warships are in fact on their way to the Canal and will pass shortly. Per Reuters, "the Iran state TV says Egypt sees nothing wrong with passage of Iranian warships through Suez Canal." The vessels in question are the Alvand frigate and the Kharg, a supply vessel.
Photo of the Alvand:
Look for kneejerk reaction in crude.
Some more perspectives from Information Dissemination:
The two Iranian ships are the corvette Alvand and supply ship Kharg, both pictured in this blog post. The Alvand
is the flagship of the Iranian Navy. Displacing around 1,500 tons, the
ship comes armed with 4 C-802 anti-ship missiles, a 4.5in gun, torpedo
launchers, and various smaller machine guns and mortars. The US Navy has
seen this class of ship before, in battle. During Operation Preying
Mantis in 1988, the Iranian corvette Sabalan was left paralyzed and on fire from a 500 lb bomb from an A-6, while another pair of A-6s crippled the Sahand where she later sunk southwest of Larak Island following a Harpoon strike from the USS Joseph Strauss (DDG-16). For the sake of symmetry, I'll note the A-6s involved in Operation Preying Mantis that slapped around the sister ships of Alvand were from the VA-95 "Green Lizards" and flown off none other than the USS Enterprise (CVN 65).
The Iranian flagship Alvand
is not a naval threat to anyone in the region, and is not why Israel is
raising concern. The ship has terrible anti-air capabilities that are
no match against the capabilities of the Egyptian Air Force, the Royal
Saudi Air Force, the Israeli Air Force, or Carrier Air Wing One on the
USS Enterprise (CVN 65). While the media portrayal of the Iranian Navy
near the Suez is one of distressing concern, the reality is that
corvette represents the biggest regional target at sea for thousands of
nautical miles. The media may describe the presence of the Iranian
corvette in the context of doubt, fear, and concern; but given Israel's
outrage and tendency to be trigger happy - allow me to suggest the
scariest place to be in the Red Sea today is anywhere near that ship. I
note the irony between how the news narrative represents a complete
disconnect between perception and reality.
Speaking of Israeli concern, assuming it is legitimate and not parochial; it likely has to do with the supply ship Kharg and not the corvette Alvand.
The supply ship Kharg is much more interesting. The Kharg
is the largest ship in the Iranian Navy displacing around 33,000 tons
and is a modified Olwen class fast fleet tanker. This is a big ship, and
with the current tensions between Israel and Hezbollah,
Israel is likely very concerned about what the ship is carrying. As a
Navy ship rather than a commercial ship, the ship will not be searched
for cargo so the concern by the Israeli's is that the ship could carry
weapons to Syria where weapons can be unloaded and sent to Lebanon.
There are rumors that go back several years that the Kharg has been often been observed in the Gulf of Aden delivering weapons from Iran to destinations like Eritrea and the Sudan.
If you follow the Wikileaks cables you will note that this known arms
smuggling connection between Iran and Eritrea was how the Government of
Yemen believed the Houthis were being armed, although the cables
actually reveal that is not how the Houthis are being armed based on
different intelligence.
Are the Israeli's being paranoid? Probably not. The Kharg
is the best choice of vessel to move substantial arms from Iran to
Hezbollah quickly and without harassment. It is around 2,150nm from
Bandar Abbas, Iran to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia - where these Iranian ships made port
last week. While I understand that a little corvette might have to make
stops every few thousand nautical miles - even a corvette with the
range of the Alvand - why does a fast fleet tanker like Kharg need a fill up after only a few thousand miles travel?
Probably because the tanker is carrying more than fuel.
What To Do
The
Israeli's can get trigger happy in a hurry, so I have no idea what they
will do. However, I noted with interest that PJ Crowley described the
US position on the presence of the Iranian ships approaching the Suez
Canal as one of "curiosity." OK, I buy that, I'm certainly curious as
well. But the real question is what if anything should the United States
do?
Well, if you are the US it depends if you think the Israel
will attack the ships. If you do think Israel is going to get trigger
happy, we should do nothing. However, if the US does not believe the
Israeli's are going to attack the Iranian ships, this is what I believe
the US should do.
It is more than a little disturbing to me that a
~1,500 ton Iranian corvette built in 1971 with 4 ASMs and no air
defenses escorted by an old oil tanker can send the price of US oil up 1.8%
for simply sailing on the ocean. Iran just significantly shifted an
economic market in the US with a piece of shit corvette even though the
USS Enterprise (CVN 65) was literally right there. Think about that a
second...
An increase of 1.8% comes to $.67 per bbl of oil, and
the United States uses 21,000,000 bbls of oil per day. That means that
through soft power presence alone the Iranian Navy flagship, which by
every modern naval standard is nothing more than a ~1,500 ton unrated
corvette with a questionably trained crew and supported an old tanker,
and yet the Iranian Navy just sent a $14 million shiver down the spine
of the energy economy of the United States. To add insult to injury,
that bump in oil cost could potentially sustain itself for several days
while the Iranian Navy operates in that region.
How do we
reconcile the ability of an Iranian corvette half way around the world
to influence a US economic market with the rhetoric by the United States
Navy leadership who attempts to link US naval power with US economy?
How can observers not draw the conclusion that investors in this country
have lost all association with American naval power and the
sustainability of regional peace when an Iranian corvette can make this
kind of economic impact while operating right next to a US aircraft
carrier strike group? Investors in the US oil futures market must not
even associate US naval power as a deterrent to economic disruption when
oil shoots up 1.8% based on presence alone, and in this case the US
naval power present is a carrier strike group. Is this a matter of
stupidity or ignorance on the part of the investors, or does this say
something about the US Navy's ability to articulate it's own value to
the nation?
So, clearly the Navy has a communication problem...
How can the US Navy address this? Well, if I was given 5-star rank for a
day I would sail my Arleigh Burke class destroyer along side the
Iranian Navy flagship for a "wave and hello" and take a photograph of
the two ships side by side while underway. I realize that strategic
communication is a forgotten, and perhaps lost art in the US Navy, but
if you put a photograph on Navy.mil with the two warships in near
proximity that illustrates the sheer size difference between the
flagship of the Iranian Navy and a US Navy Arleigh Burke class
destroyer, I will predict that the unofficial PASSEX is worth several
thousand words to a great many reporters and Americans while also being a
photograph worth about $14 million in savings to the US energy economy a
day.
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You changed the outcome by asking the question!
I was watching by remote, so the experiment was already tweaked.
Heisenberg called me tomorrow and asked me to tell ALL of you to STFU.
I'll buy that curvature for a USD!
What a conundrum...who to believe the media or the media?
There's no me in media
c'mon...be a teiam player
Meanwhile, Weight Watchers is surging another $15 after going vertical already this year ($25 to $45 since August).
Surely, we are entering a parabolic blowoff phase in stocks.
wtf did you do with RobotTrader?
He was sarcastic.
The DOW won't stop until reaching 16,000, unfortunately for permabears.
The Russell2000 won't stop until reaching 16,000 unfortunately for permabears.
In his defense, in his posts he has often implied an expectation of severe inflation.
Are you hedging your own personal diet with a nice allocation of Weight Watchers...I recall you telling us your normal day consists of McDonald's (breakfast), Subway (lunch), Starbucks (afternoon snack), and Pizza Hut (dinner).
Weight Watchers, lol those fat bitchez will be on the 'run for your life from rioting mobs and rapists' diet soon enough!
Cardio.
You don't have to be the fastest. Just not the slowest.
so very true.
Meanwhile, Silver is surging while robotussin stays short slv given his firm conviction (robo always puts his money where his catfish mouth is) that the jpm short (his words day before yesterday) is a myth.
robotussin plans to stay short slv. that way he can make his year once the market realizes that the jpm silver short is myth, and once exposed slv bulls will sell en masse since the only thing propping up slv was the premise that jpm would eventually have to cover the short.
btw: it's my understanding that gentleman jim sinclair is still disconsolent from robotussin's rebuke for his gold bull position.
Sure. Send two warships through the canal.
In fact, go ahead and test the "waters" off the coast of Israel, no pun intended. Hell, let them fire a missile or two, just for show!
The Iranians will quickly learn how obsolete their "ships" are.....
Charlie Bravo
971 ????. You'd never have seen us coming...
frigate escorting a supply ship to Syria...sounds like someone is getting some new cool weapons....or Syria has procured some important parts for Iran's nuclear project.
Yet the Spooz sold off less than 4 handles. They've actually bounced. I don't get it: http://www.hedgefundlive.com/blog/warships-on-the-way-to-the-suez-canal-futures-have-barely-sold-off-so-far
Is that or is that not International waters by treaty? But I guess that doesn't make much difference to Israhole since they think they own the Suez and the Sinai. Just look what they did to our Liberty ship in 1967 , and nothing ever was said about it, the bastards....
Intl waters never stopped the Israholes from attacking the Gaza aid ships.
That was a mistake, let them get within 7 miles and sink em..
Can't Israelis attack USS Joseph Strauss like they did with USS Liberty and then blame it on Iranians? CL would skyrocket! I'm all in!
Hmm YEA good point!
Hey! Who junked me twice? I was kidding! On the other hand, what people do form money or political (domestic) gain!
if the market does not sell off today on this, then i stand by my thesis that the market is crazy delusional: http://www.hedgefundlive.com/blog/10-reasons-i-am-delusional-not-the-market
Bernank the only one left in the market, why would he sell off to himself?
To ward off THE DEFLATION which is very. very bad.
<snarky, not sarcastic>Super viscous liquids (deflation) are scary. Put silver behind them and you end up with a mirror, which is the scariest thing you can get a Doctorate in .....</snark>
It would be terrible if people had any clue as to what a days labor was worth in this world. For me, I am going to hit the strip clubs with Spitzer and Mozillo.
My local peeler palace has wi-fi now. And 1 silver eagle gets me 2 lap dances.
I haven't been home in 3 days.
"but if you put a photograph on Navy.mil with the two warships in near proximity that illustrates the sheer size difference between the flagship of the Iranian Navy and a US Navy Arleigh Burke class destroyer, I will predict that the unofficial PASSEX is worth several thousand words to a great many reporters and Americans while also being a photograph worth about $14 million in savings to the US energy economy a day."
Again the David and Goliath complex. Even with big guns and a huge military you can't do much to stop a determined foe. Look at assymetrical warfare. In fact, that "sheer size difference" is just playing against the US, having to support all that hardware with moneys that would do better working at home.
Won't and can't are not the same thing.
I believe that you are referring to the concept of: "It is not the size of the man in the fight, it is the size of the fight in the man."
The U.S. Navy is less concerned with projecting the power and influence of the United States than it is with diversity, multiculturalism, and budget politics. It starts at the top.
Not much of a threat to the world's largest oil company, the US Navy.
Militaries that devour oil and resources in an effort to control oil and resources that they've just devoured, generating larger militaries that devour more of the diminishing resources to control it all along a diminishing return equation.
Unknown ZH poster.
Circa last month.
The beeb is reporting otherwise Tyler
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12493614
So I wonder which reportage is right?
bbc is old news. Passing was scheduled yesterday, then cancelled, then on again today. As of now, it is a go.
From Counter-punch.
It has been clear to most analysts for years, even decades, that the United States favors Israel, but this reality has never been revealed so explicitly until recent events laid the relationship bare, and laid bare the fact that Israel is at the center of virtually every move the United States makes in the region. There has long been a taboo on talking about these realities, a taboo that has tied the tongues of people like my interlocutor. People do not mention Israel because they might be called anti-Semitic, they might be attacked as “singling out” Israel for criticism; the media fail to discuss Israel and what it does around the Middle East and, most directly, to the Palestinians who live under its rule because this might provoke angry letters to the editor and cancelled subscriptions by Israel supporters. Congressmen will not endanger campaign funds by talking honestly about Israel. And so Israel is taken off everyone’s radar screen. Progressives may “mention Israel in passing,” as my friend told me, but they do no more. Ultimately, because no one talks about it, everyone stops even thinking about Israel as the prime mover behind so many U.S. policies and actions in the Middle East.
It is time we began noticing. Everyone in the Middle East already notices, as the Egyptian revolution has just made clear. And probably everyone throughout the world also notices. We should begin listening to the world’s people, not to their leaders, who tell us what they think we want to hear.
Kathleen Christison is a former CIA political analyst and the author of several books on the Palestinian situation, including Palestine in Pieces, co-authored with her late husband Bill Christison. She can be reached at kb.christison@earthlink.net.
Is this another one of those photoshop jobs?
Can we see something else in the shot to establish the scale of these boats and rule out RC toys?
The comments section on this site have turned into a cesspool.
True dat. How 'bout the Rodent dude? Thinks it is his full time job to prove what a hateful asshole he is, each and every day. Or maybe he's doing all this on his employer's time?
It's a crime how ZH has now attracted so many of this quality of character.
possible new name for ZH: IslamophobesRus.com
I realize that running across an unapologetic American is disturbing. Get used to it.
+
A frigate!!!??? Even if the supply ship is carrying arms, it won't matter in the grand scheme of things. This is one of the "don't sweat the small stuff" events, Israel hasn't learned from the Gaza fiasco.
The supply ship is 13,000 tons that is an awful lot of small stuff..
It's a free world, isn't it?
WW3 is a done deal. It's WW4 that fascinates me. What happens after USA surrenders to China at Baghdad cafe all its gold in fort Knox... along with the oil in Saudi...Is what'll fuel WW4...like Versailles treaty fueled WW2 after WW1. Think long, if you want to live longer. Buy your wines short to keep you company. As for silver and gold...its optional as its a hedge against misery not against ...unhappiness of being shell shocked. Only pinot noir helps there or maybe chardonnay.
Spot on! ;)
This is a non-story being hyped to fuel the War with Iran propaganda. The Canal is pretty has been pretty much open to anyone.
Plus, it now looks like the Iranians cancelled. They figured out that the port visit in Syria was not worth the war propaganda in the West.
Don't show that to the CIA they'll think the Iranians have landed on Floridan beach and brought with them a trojan...camel!
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/0216/Yemeni-president-tr...
The most recent report was that the warships have no clearance as of 20 min ago. Looking for link.
It's not Irans fault that Bernanke has given the banks a blank check to buy up as many oil derivatives as they feel like. Blame the speculators. And don't condone attacking that ship you idiot.
So, the Satanic Tribe in Israel can now dictate who goes thru the Sewerz Canal?!? They deserve to be destroyed!
The reason the price of oil moved is that the modified tanker moving through the Suez is a very similar scenario to what the Iranians might do to block Hormuz.
A dry run for this is probably the primary purpose.
On the subject of military power, the one failing of armchair generals is that they refuse to recognize that war power depends on monetary support and that financial support, even if it's Fed printed, depends on (in America’s case) political support. To go to war in Iraq, for example, fake evidence was required, Congressional declaration had to be avoided, and other nations, such as the UK, had to be co-opted into a “war team” for the propaganda value.
Even then, the streets of London and San Francisco overflowed with millions of protesters. Imagine the response to the armchair generals’ suggestion that the U.S. can rule the world. I don’t think so; there will be no popular support for it.
You all may be missing the point. Iran is infamous for its suicide missions. There's a possibility this Iranian frigate and supply ship are going to try and break the Israeli blockade of Gaza. Let's say Israel sinks or otherwise stops these ships from doing so. Let's say Hezbollah retaliates by opening up on northern Israel. What position is the Egyptian military put in? There's a broader strategy in play and the real question to be asking yourselves is, when this Iranian naval mission was announced on Jan. 23rd, how did Tehran know of the radical political change about to occur in Egypt to facilitate the intended mission? To answer this question, you need to look at what Russia has truly been up to over the last 20-or-so years.
http://www.spiritoftruthblog.com
http://hotair.com/greenroom/archives/2011/02/11/great-iranian-warships-call-in-jeddah/
Did Iran know that Hosni Mubarak would be overthrown before this naval mission began?
http://www.spiritoftruthblog.com