It's A Skewed, Skewed World

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Wed, 02/23/2011 - 19:26 | 990801 Trimmed Hedge
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Is this a signal to BTFD?


Wed, 02/23/2011 - 19:29 | 990811 Gold 36000
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Wow are you for real?  I'm kinda shy so I have a sack over my head.

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 19:42 | 990849 Trimmed Hedge
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If you're referring to my pic, then yes, that's me as a Halloween kitty last year.

Please take off that silly sack! I feel everyone should post their real photo here, incognito or not. Why not? It's a small enough photo, and a very big world.


Anyway, back to on-topicness....

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 21:36 | 991067 Mercury
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Yeah but on the internet no one knows you'r a dog/god. *woof*

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Taleb has popularized (the not quite original) idea that tail risk is typically underpriced but at what point is tail risk overpriced?  If the black swan is big enough your chances of actually taking delivery on your payoff (from your counterparty) gets smaller.

CBOE description and white paper on SKEW

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 23:31 | 991540 asdasmos
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"I feel everyone should post their real photo here, incognito or not. Why not? It's a small enough photo, and a very big world."


Not if it can be used to find you. I have found a picture of her.

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 21:54 | 991181 Joeman34
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WTF is BTFD???

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 00:28 | 991721 dxj
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Buy The F--king Dip (Bitchiz)


Wed, 02/23/2011 - 19:28 | 990806 Gold 36000
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This gave everyone a clue to go long the TVIX.  Now with the skew index that inefficiency may disappear.  The world was so much better when everyone had to do their own calculations.

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 19:28 | 990808 Scottj88
Wed, 02/23/2011 - 19:51 | 990871 zaknick
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Excellent site and grasp of current events.

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 19:29 | 990809 Henry Chinaski
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if u hav tangibles and skilz, tail event is no biggie

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 19:37 | 990835 MsCreant
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It's A Skewed, Skewed World

Tyler, you need an editor, here I am.


It's A Skrewed, Skrewed World

All fixed.

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 20:24 | 990932 spekulatn
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Well done MsCreant.

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 20:37 | 990970 Mr Lennon Hendrix
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Funny, I was thinking skewered myself.

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 21:00 | 991026 Henry Chinaski
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It's a screwed, screwed, screwed, screwed, world.

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 19:39 | 990841 nudedude
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Yawn, buy the dip.

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 19:40 | 990845 treasurefish
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I'm not a PhD economist type, just a little guy.  I just realized something that might be pretty obvious to everyone here. If the Bernank is keeping interest rates at $0, and buying treasury bonds on top of that, then interest rates are effectively negative.  Correct?  Well, I have read that the IRS Act of 1913 was instituted as a ploy first, with the plan to pay the interest of the later FED Act of 23 DEC 1913.  If this is true, then in reality, taxpayers are literally giving money away for free to China, et al.  Are we paying people to buy our debt now?  Is this true?  Why would we do such a thing?!

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 19:44 | 990853 Monkey Craig
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it's called screw the middle class...raw

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 19:52 | 990875 nufio
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i dint get the part where the tax payers are giving free money to china. since china holds a lot of us debt they arent the chinese effectively paying the US to hold the debt?

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 19:55 | 990879 MsCreant
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Ben is printing. To pay them off for keeping quiet about the ponzi scam that the US is, Ben is sharing what he is printing. As long as all those in authority agree to keep quiet about all the various kinds of printing going on, the Ponzi will keep on going on... until it can't. 

The only limits I can see to this are the physical limits of food, energy, or armaments. We are getting ready to come up against some I fear. Prepare accordingly.

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 20:11 | 990913 treasurefish
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With all the news going on lately, I am almost prepared.  I filled up several 5 gallon tanks tanks of gasoline, and went to Sam's Club to stock up on bulk basics:  sugar, cooking oil, beans, rice, flour, honey, emergency radio, good survival knife, and AA lithium batteries.  After a disasterous attempt to buy some OTM calls in coal companies last week, I am losing my shirt fast.  I'm about to cash out and buy some firearms.  Wish I had prepared sooner, but at least I'm taking action now.  Hard to do on a budget though. GL everyone.

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 20:30 | 990949 Pilot
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"The only limits I can see to this are the physical limits of food, energy, or armaments. We are getting ready to come up against some I fear."

That is exactly correct.  Hard limits are in view, although not physical.  If Ben takes the value of the Dollar to zero, as is widely expected here, our carrier groups will not be able to put to sea, and we will not be able to defend ourselves.  That is not going to happen.  They (I hope, anyway, understand that).  Extrapolation of the current trend line is absolutely the best short term forecasting tool.   The hell of it is, that in the long term, it is always wrong.


Contrary opinions invited.  I thoughtfully consider same, and am usually educated by them...



Wed, 02/23/2011 - 19:55 | 990851 bob_dabolina
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Can anyone find the correlation between the nationwide heat map in the link vs. municipalities/states in trouble with debt?

It should be...quite easy to see.

How do the states green/red compensate state workers & how are state entitlements distributed? hmmmmmmmm States with the highest debt levels also have the highest gas prices and I'm sure higher everything else prices. I'd be willing to bet business is fleeing those states and thus...well you get the idea.

Food for thought if you trade in debt relating to states/municipalities.

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 20:21 | 990926 FOC 1183
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a quick glance suggests you're right.  I'm pretty certain a scatter plot of those gas prices vs. CDS of the 17 states which are actively traded would yield a positive (and statistically significant) correlation

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 20:35 | 990954 bob_dabolina
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Shit. lol

I mistakenly deleted a comment and I'm not redoing it.

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 01:45 | 991951 Ura Bonehead
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Here's you answer, Bob (at least as it relates to gas prices).



But, yes, CAL is see businesses flee in boat loads.

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 19:45 | 990858 themosmitsos
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Oustanding CreditTrader. Thx!

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 19:48 | 990865 gaoptimize
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Noticed that we have perhaps less than a week until post numbers go 7 digits.  Peak post, or do we have a 32 bit integer for post index?

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 20:02 | 990890 mynhair
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OMG, Hamy has gained article rights....

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 20:33 | 990959 chump666
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Bernanke is going to destroy valuations on everything if he pumps a QE3,  the market won't price risk on from crack up booms anymore, especially when oil will head over $100, yields will go ballistic and China will go nuclear...

Stocks will sell off : volume increasing means that short positions are gathering.

Safty net is now FUBAR

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 20:46 | 990992 Pilot
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"Stocks will sell off'

Yes they will.  My guess is soon (well, shoot, has it already started?)


Thu, 02/24/2011 - 00:04 | 991656 chump666
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looking at a 20% drop...

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 21:17 | 991071 topshelfstuff
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Bernanke Admits QE Raises Stock Prices, Force Investors Into Other Assets


Wed, 02/23/2011 - 21:26 | 991094 Weisbrot
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its official the US governement is providing coins to Zimbabwe,  this makes the US Dollar as solid as the Zimbabwe dollar!

Wed, 02/23/2011 - 23:38 | 991564 limcagoldspot
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Great post!

Thu, 02/24/2011 - 00:29 | 991705 dxj
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"perhap snotable" ... LOL

Seriously, really great post.

Sat, 05/21/2011 - 00:51 | 1297632 kummar
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If indeed these are the actors set on setting the world ablaze, they are more than likely the same ones who are involved in Greece, Portugal, Dubai, and elsewhere. Presenting: Moore Capital, Brevan Howard and Paulson & Co... Oh and JP Morgan and, ahem, Goldman Sachs.1971 Toyota Pick-Up Truck AC Compressor

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