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I've Been Mished

Submitted by Phoenix Capital Research on 05/30/2011 21:28 -0400

I recently discovered that famed financial commentator, Mike “Mish”
Shedlock published a piece in which he quoted an article I published and
proceeded to tear my views (at least what he claims my views were) to pieces.

The actual article I wrote that Mish refers to is:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/time-prepare-hyper-inflation-it-explodes

The first line of the piece notes that it’s a continuation of several
other pieces I’d written before. Mish doesn’t bother referring to them
anywhere. He simply starts off by quoting the following:

The similarities between the US today and Weimar
pre-hyperinflation are striking. As in Weimar, US fiscal authorities are
not taking any steps to rein in their loose money policies. Similarly,
the US Fed, like Germany’s financial elites believes that currency
depreciation is a good thing.

Thus we have a rather frightening set-up for hyperinflation in
the US: the largest emerging market players are moving away from using
the US Dollar at the same time that US monetary authorities are engaging
in disastrous policies similar to those employed by the men who brought
hyperinflation to Weimar Germany.

I firmly believe the US will see serious (‘70s style inflation)
if not hyperinflation within the next 2-3 years. It could come sooner
depending on how the Fed’s policies play out.

The purpose of these paragraphs was to say that the financial elite
in the US are maintaining similar views to their counterparts in Weimar
Germany. I DO NOT say the US is just like Weimar (though I say I
believe we will experience similar hyperinflation at some point). I DO
say that the financial elites in both countries engaged in similar
practices. That’s a key difference.

Mish however, takes my quote to mean that Weimar and the US are
identical in every way. He then lists four key differences between the
two. His differences are:

1) Germany lost World War I

2) The Treaty of Versailles imposed repayment conditions on Germany that could not be met

3) To enforce the treaty, France occupied parts of Germany

4) Germany printed money so fast people burnt stacks of money for heat

On the surface these do indeed look like major differences (the US didn’t lose WWI, ISN’T forced by the Treaty of Versailles to make debt payments, isn’t being occupied by France, and has yet to print enough money that people burn bills for fuel).

However, these are only differences if one takes everything literally.

The US, like Weimar, is a massively indebted nation. And the US, like
Weimar, is being forced to continue to issue debt and repay it (though
in the US’s case it’s Wall Street and their lackeys in Washington
pushing for this). Like Weimar, the US CANNOT repay its current debt
obligations. And we’re also being taken down this road against our will
(this time by Congress which ignores the fact most Americans don’t want
us to issue more debt, similar to Weimar’s financial elite who continued
down their path of loose money policies).

And finally the US Federal Reserve is printing money… like Weimar. Is
it the exact same amount? No. Are people burning bills for fuel? No.
But did I claim that the US was doing this? NO.

Again, the primary differences Mish lists between Weimar and the US
are only differences if you take everything from a literal standpoint.
And I wish to reiterate that Mish didn’t correctly get the primary
points I was making in the sections he quotes. Of course that didn’t
stop him from saying it was all “nonsense.”

Mish then takes issue with my suggestion that a common currency in Asia could potentially be a viable alternative to the US Dollar as the reserve currency of the world.

Mish quotes the following from my article:

Indeed, it was just revealed that ASEAN+3 countries (Brunei,
Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines,
Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, China, Japan, and South Korea) are
researching the prospect of a “common currency” similar to the Euro.

The significance of this development cannot be overstated.

Once again, Mish ignores other parts of the article in which I state
that common currencies in general are flawed. He also ignores the fact
that I never actually say a common currency from Asia is guaranteed. I
DO say the following:

What I mean is that should a common currency be
introduced in Asia, it would probably work for about 10-15 years. By
then we’re well into the 2020s if not the 2030s at which point it is
quite possible China will indeed be in a place to provide a world
reserve currency on its own.

I wish to stress that even if Asia doesn’t implement a common
currency and the US Dollar remains the world’s reserve currency (I put
the odds of this at 20%), we are still facing a debt default in the US
which will result in the US Dollar dropping dramatically in value and
ushering in serious if not hyper-inflation.

The inclusion of “should” clearly illustrates that I am NOT saying a
common currency is guaranteed in Asia but instead could be a potential
option IF the respective Governments pursue it. Mish misses that point.
But again, it didn’t stop him from calling my piece “nonsense.”

The rest of Mish’s piece consists of the same literal interpretation
of everything I say. In the end, while trying to discredit my ideas
while presenting himself as vastly more astute than me (to readers who
likely didn’t even bother reading my article or the ones preceding it),
all he really does is indicate that:

1) He doesn’t actually bother to understand what an author is saying before attacking his or her views

2) He has no issue calling others’ work nonsense without bothering
to speak with the author or read additional material the author has put
out

Regarding the latter point, I actual have spoken to Mish several
times on the phone in the last few years. The most recent call was in
July 2009. At that time I called to discuss the inflation/ deflation
debate with him. Our debate consisted of Mish yelling for 15 minutes
straight about how inflation didn’t exist and that anyone who believed
it did was an idiot. I had to ask him to stop yelling several times so I
could actually say something.

This is why Mish’s piece wasn’t totally a surprise for me. I’d
already experienced his “no room for contrary views,” take on economics
personally. And it’s not surprising that a man whose notion of a
friendly discussion involves screaming over others would publish an
article attacking someone else’s ideas without bothering to even figure
out what the person is really trying to say.

By the way, the time when Mish told me inflation didn’t exist and
that I had to be insane to claim it was a reality was July 2009… when
Gold was at $900 per ounce, Oil was at $70 per barrel, Wheat was under
$600, and Copper was under $2.50.

However, I’m not going to personally attack Mish’s views or his writing because there are FOUR key differences between us:

1) I believe that writing a piece attacking someone’s ideas offers little if any value to readers or investors

2) I don’t actually read him much so I’m not familiar with his
views... so even if I wanted to attack him, I wouldn't feel comfortable
doing so

3) Before attacking the ideas of someone who I’ve actually spoken
to over the phone (several times), I would first write him a personal
email asking him to clarify his points so I had a better grasp of what
he was saying

4) I don’t consider views that are contrary to my own as “nonsense.”

Obviously none of these hindered Mish.

Graham Summers

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Tue, 05/31/2011 - 12:55 | 1325719 Bearish News

I distinctly recall Mish yelling about how inflation was impossible, and wrote a piece refuting him, in June 2009.

http://www.bearishnews.com/post/1047

Nice article Graham.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:15 | 1325393 Smokey1

I seldom read Mish, but did happen to read the article where he motherfucked the views of Graham Summers. My impression was that the article was shallow and took Summers' views out of context.

Shedlock's mind is fused shut and his views are no more valid than those of a crackhead dumpster diving in Harlem.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 10:44 | 1325292 cfosnock

This is typical Mish. I had a question about what I thought was a contradictory statement he made, after trying to make feel like an idiot, he refused to answer my question by simply ignoring it. For those of you who care Mish is a deflationist because he believes that the USA is the best place to live and the powers to be will ultimately follow the law. Basically he feels that are not suffering from outright fraud but just incompetence.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 10:37 | 1325250 Fishhawk

Mish never said his commentary was intended as investment advice. He is focused on longer term trends, and he has most of those right, as any Austrian analysis will show. It is also possible that his views have grown more sophisticated in 10 years, as his current view of the Fed is perfectly consistent with their criminal behavior. However, when you take a strident view, and it turns out to be wrong, most readers will feel that some act of contrition is needed, else the perception grows that he can't admit to being wrong. At the speed of the blogworld today, those who proclaim that they can't be wrong won't be read. Thus being 'Mished' has less cachet than it did a year ago.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 12:52 | 1325713 malek

I don't know what you mean by longer term, but Mish definitely does not focus on the really long term (10+ years).

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 09:32 | 1324994 rsnoble

Kinda like guys preaching ways to make money on youtube. If it worked so well, then why are you spending most of your time making videos and pitching ebooks?

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 09:31 | 1324990 rsnoble

If someone had a magic ball that worked 100% of the time there'd be no need for fill in the gap income producers like blogs.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 08:54 | 1324882 P-K4

Mish, like ZH is a much better read and source of information than the MSM and kool-aid that passes as journalism. I can appreciate the differences of opinion and give Mish his due since he does have substantial research to support his views.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 08:52 | 1324877 Manipulism

4) Germany printed money so fast people burnt stacks of money for heat

Ahem, excuse me but

I tought money printing is an effect of hyperinflation not a cause like he suggests.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 08:46 | 1324865 Clint Liquor

Mish is like most Humans, he doesn't like being wrong. Unfortunately, he has been wrong for ten years. In 1999-2000, investors needed to decide the inflation/deflation path of the future. Mike (Mish) Shedlock flatly stated the FED would never expand their balance sheet to defeat deflation and Gold would never stay above $600.

He was wrong and refuses to admit it, which gives clarity on his personality.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:25 | 1325465 Augustus

That is exactly why he has never made public his trading successes. There are none. Why else would a RIA withhold that information?

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 08:00 | 1324765 Ancona

You shouldn't let shit like this get under your skin. There is nothing wrong with a good joust now and then.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 07:48 | 1324749 Sherman McCoy

Mish who? Does he make money?

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 07:34 | 1324738 sbenard

I remember last year when Mish picked a fight with Gonzalo Lira over inflation/deflation. In his hit piece, he picked just about the ONLY commodity that he could to make his case -- nat gas. As a commodity trader, I know that nat gas seems to have a mind of its own and often trades contrary to any other commodity. He didn't use any of the commodity indexes because none of them supported his demogoguery. Mish' selective picking of his data points to support his view lead me to question his credibility and integrity on all his other opinions. He has allowed his ideology to cloud his perspective. For me as a trader, when I allow my biases to infect my trading, I make errors. I can't afford that! I stopped reading his blog that day. I had been reading it daily. Now, I look at it perhaps once a month. His cred is dead!

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:27 | 1325459 cfosnock

Well at least I'm not the only one who stop reading his blog.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 07:11 | 1324720 Matto

I have never bothered reading Mish but I have read a lot of Steve Keen's work - it is worth noting that he has made statements such as 'I'm still an optimist about Governments doing the right thing and not printing their way out' as well as 'Ultimately we will have deflation but prices may well go up in that process'

The first comment is indicating that he's deflation position is dependent on questionable behaviour and his second comment shows that he's idea of deflation may be based as much on economic deflation as opposed to monetary deflation. As such it's important not to paint commentators with too broad a brush in regard to their 'camp'.

Are not all hyperinflationists also economic deflationists? A collapsing economy and leveraged asset prices with core price inflation is both deflationary and inflationary at the same time - depending on your definitions.

Having said that, Professor Keen is redefining economics as we speak. He's recent success in modelling the effects of debt and financial instability in an economy will likely change the whole of economics in years to come.

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2011/05/25/prof-steve-keen-youtube-channel-in-business-again/

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 12:50 | 1325700 malek

'I'm still an optimist about Governments doing the right thing and not printing their way out'

That is exactly the main difference between the deep-thinking deflationists vs. such inflationists.

Some people were sceptical from the beginning on governments ever doing the right thing, others were able to learn from events and adjust their thinking like AEP http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100007777/sh...
and some still stick to "one day they will do the right thing and we will have horrendous deflation!"
Good luck with that.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 17:45 | 1326677 Matto

That pronouncement by Keen was fairly recent and I believe he was signalling the gradual realisation of the flaw in his 'belief', sorry if I didn't make that clearer but there was a touch of sarcasm in the original.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 18:33 | 1326835 malek

Even though I am not aware of his touch of sarcasm on this, I highly respect Keen's concise work which he always presents without hyperventilating.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 07:09 | 1324717 poydras

I suspect that the Arrogant Blogger is losing money and audience on many of his notions.

His decisive conclusions fail to explain oil at over 100.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 07:04 | 1324714 Augustus

The similarities to Wiemar are actually greater than you may realize.

Certainly the requirement that Germany repay massive war debts/reperations was a principal cause of the inflation and money printing. The country was unable to service the debt / unfunded liability. However Germany had no social programs requiring funding, certainly not on the scale of the US and Eurozone today.

Replace War Reperations with Unfunded Liabilities for Social Programs and the outcome and obligations are very much the same. The compounding and the increasing obligations will have the same effect as War Reperations. It is not absolutely necessary that there is the same hyperinflation outcome. However the current political discussions do not give us much hope that the liability side will be reduced. When one political party continues to proclaim that people are entitled to lifelong benefits for which they have made no payment, eventually a large part of the population will become convinced that there really is a Santa Claus.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 06:33 | 1324706 sbenard

This is why I stopped reading Mish' blog. He's an ideologue, not a credible economist any more! He's so blinded by his ideology that he can no longer see the forest for the trees. It's unfortunate, because he has a lot of good things to say at times, and could be a voice that could benefit the community.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 04:24 | 1324653 Kina

I mentioned North America because the best academic deflationist in the world is Prof. Steve Keen of Australia.

Prof Keene was/is predicting for the Aussie housing bubble to burst and has been recommending people sell their homes if they can and get into precious metals as well as holding some strong foreign currencies outside the country and current banking syndicate in Aust.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 03:56 | 1324640 Fishhawk

I'll second Renfield's views above. Mish is a bright guy, and covers a lot of subjects quickly. He tends to come to a pretty definitive conclusion right away and then moves on. But he builds on his previous writing, and has provided some excellent analysis which has proven quite prophetic. Lately it seems he is becoming more combative; I can't speculate on why, but he seems rushed to keep up. It takes a certain kind of exhibitionist streak to want to write controversial articles at a rate of 3 per day, and you are bound to generate opponents (enemies if you mention ZH). Ok, that's enough on the ad hominem stuff. On the deflation front, take a look at the deflation going on all around you in terms of gold. As AUD pointed out, its easy to show growth if your yardstick is also growing. The dollar has lost any semblance of a store of value, so can no longer be used to measure inflation. Finally, I read everything I can find by Graham; he does not suffer from the attitude that disagreement can only indicate nonsense. His gentler level of discourse is a lot easier to read, but then controversy sells, so if you have an agenda (even if it is only personal aggrandizement), it helps to be confrontational. Finally, I agree with Mish's take on unions, but you should note that his comments are directed at public unions, which in vote-buying conspiracy with corrupt politicians (redundant?), are clearly bankrupting all levels of government. But as Bastiat said, the whole purpose of government is to take as much as possible from one group and give it to another group.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 03:02 | 1324613 RagnarDanneskjold

Unless you launching a rhetorical flourish, there's really not much to compare between Weimar Germany and the USA today. There are plenty of hyperinflation examples, but Weimar is one of the worst due to all the extenuating circumstances. If you think USA will be like Weimar Germany, then please give the step-by-step for how the U.S. recreates having Communist militants take over cities and execute goverment leaders, then Aryan nation/militias are allowed free reign by Congress to go in and wipe out the communists. Explain how the U.S. breaks down into civil war again, and then you have a comparison to Weimar Germany.

I'm making absolutely no comment on deflation/hyperinflation. I'll just say that the hyperinflation side of the debate is more crowded, but the mean IQ is much lower.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 09:18 | 1324923 printmemoney

"Explain how the U.S. breaks down into civil war again, and then you have a comparison to Weimar Germany."

Civil war could easily happen when states that don't get obamacare waivers (Red States), bailouts(Not Michigan), support for immigration initiatives (AZ), or disaster declaration for fires (TX) decide that they no longer want to play within our crony federal system.

Right now some states are issuing symbolic legislation for a return to sound money i.e gold/silver. What happens when states start issuing their own currencies? Do you think military personnel from Texas will invade their state and institute martial law? Who will the national guards listen to?

It's possible and will become more so as our country continues to circle the drain.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 02:16 | 1324584 radsz

Hi Graham,

Well spoken. You have my respect for the right response to being mished. I read you and I do not read him for many reasons including the ones you have mentioned.

best,

Radek

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 01:56 | 1324571 cbxer55

I'm not publishing s--t! I do not invest. I do not care if I am right or wrong. I do not read his site anymore period, never will again. Deflation this, deflation that! Meanwhile , everytime I open my wallet, more money flies out of it for less items. F him and his deflation.

My dick is not bigger than anyones, and high school ended for me in 1979.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 01:37 | 1324555 alexwest

before even consdering who is right or not , PLEASE PUBLISH YOUR AND MISH
INVESTING RECORD.. especially during 2008-2009 crisis.

otherwise its pointless blubbering straight from high school playbook
called 'my dick is bigger then yours'...

alx

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 01:27 | 1324550 cbxer55

All reasons why I deleted mish's site from my Favorites list. He seems more and more like an idiot every time he posts anything.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 01:17 | 1324543 dogbreath

I quit reading Miish long before I discovered ZH. The last time his name came up Dr. Antal Fekete was replying to Mish's hit piece on him.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 00:55 | 1324522 Backspin

The Mish piece was half-baked. Glad you called him on it.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 14:01 | 1325492 GoinFawr

It was, Mish seems to have a habit of putting words into other peoples' mouths, but this wasn`t much of a rebuttal either IMHO.

Related: Mish stated in an interview with Chris Martenson (ZH has it) that as long as `mark to skypie` goes on, it is very difficult to know whether or not the world`s fiats as a whole are deflating or inflating; little doubt about which one XAU and XAG are experiencing.

Notably, when talking about the `flations you have to specify the currency you perceive as `flating. Now consider Mish`s (admittedly somewhat flaccid) hard-on for gold...

See: we're actually all in agreement once you get past the semantics and one-upmanship!

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 00:32 | 1324490 AUD

Mish is neck deep in government bonds, he 'likes' them just like Steve Keen. Of course there won't be hyperinflation, according to him.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 00:34 | 1324487 in4mayshun

Whats the point in being dogmatic about either view. As passionate as each side is, we have to admit that either outcome is possible at this point. We must remember that should the global elites choose, they could deicde to let the economy collapse with the expiration of QE2. Or, they could keep playing the printing game until the world completely loses faith in the US dollar. Seems to me both arguments have the same ending.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 01:51 | 1324563 Renfield

@ in4mayshun

Actually, I'm not convinced that deflation/hyperinflation is in fact an either/or scenario.

I have only researched this for a few years now - intermittently, on the internet, without economic education - but it seems to me that most hyperinflations are in fact preceded by a period of price deflation. It's just a pattern I've noticed when looking at charts of Weimar, Argentina, Chile.

Hyperinflation is the collapse of confidence in a certain currency. But in another currency - the real one that replaces the dying currency - deflation is perhaps simultaneously occurring.

One could say that as (food) prices are inflating in USD now, they are deflating (or at least staying flat) priced in gold.

Then hyperinflation is of course followed by an (apparent) price deflation, when the currency is reset and prices fall to 'normal' levels. (In the new 'reset' currency of course.)

In short, I am coming to the idea that hyperinflation and deflation go hand in hand in a currency collapse. Even in a hyperinflationary event, certain prices will deflate to almost nothing - those non-essentials and discretionaries, art for example, or collectibles, or even labour which you can buy at a steal if you are trading resources, food, commodities, the things that people need to survive.

NOT saying I agree 100% with Mish. He seems to have this strange & bizarre faith in the USD, and in paper fiat.

But a lot of his analysis on price details I think is correct. And seen from a short-term perspective, also useful, as is his debunking of government bullshit reports, notably the BLS.

And - on a minor note - we in fact *can't* afford public sector unions, which he is quite right in pointing out exist to provide the least amount of taxpayer service for the highest price. Although these are of course a smaller problem than parasite banksters, corrupt governments, and of course the hyperinflating, dying paper fiat that our criminal governments force us to trade in.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 09:02 | 1324888 boiltherich

I am sure he (Mish) is reading all this with great interest and not a little bile at some of what is said, but I think his outlook has less to do with faith in fiat and more to do with knowledge that the bankers/wealthy, lenders may be a better way to say it, would rather the economy be collapsed into a deflationary depression than printed out into hyperinflation. The Fed and the more socialist elements in government might be given a chance to experiment with pushing the dollar lower for a time but the moment the investor class feels threatened by loss of their fortunes they will collapse economy, and they have the power to do it independent of the Fed or the federal government. Withdrawal of funds from bonds would spike interest rates, and trigger unemployment, liquidation of equity investments would have a lot the same effect.

Remember that most equity accounts are margined at 50% and the same investor class that owns them also runs the institutional investments for hedge funds and other institutional accounts, all they would have to do to blow 3,100 points off of the Dow in a single day is reduce margins from 50% to zero. Margin makes up almost one quarter of the points on equities.

Under those circumstances the only way to ignight hyperinflation is to vastly increase circulating greenbacks, ie. monetize debt. Even then those bills have to get into the hands of you and me, which would be true in any case. I think the point is that rising prices/inflation to the point of being hyper, depends upon dollar creation which is only done by borrowing/lending, and that deflation is dollar destruction, which as I said before is only accomplished via removal from circulation, lack of borrowing/lending. Printing presses do not create dollars, they only monetize that which has already been created through lending.

A ton of money has been created that way from the mid nineties onward, a vast ocean of debt (which is lending/borrowing) which makes the possibility of hyper inflation real and maybe according to some imminent. But, there is a warring impulse in the economy as well, the destruction of money through defaults. All of that (non printed) money can and some think will, be destroyed as the economy gets worse, and it has a cascading downward spiraling effect, as the illustrations that TD used the other day. Already RE has lost half it's value in part from this effect and losing half the value of tangible assets is pretty much the definition of depression and deflation eh? Also, for hyperinflation to really gain a foothold not only do you have to build a bonfire of money you have to keep feeding it with ever larger amounts of fuel. We see that the taste politically for that has soured, they are still running deficits all over the place, but the majority of governments and industry are seeing the handwriting on the walls, cut cut cut. Already state and local governments have reduced deficit spending even if a few do not yet have it under control. But individuals as well have reduced credit exposure and are actually saving again, as much as 6% in the last several months. Like me they are desperate to get the credit cards paid.

The IN vs. DE flation is NOT an idiotic argument, though either could happen in theory at this point, but what counts is how do you prepare for your future in the case of either. It would seem on the surface that they are mutually exclusive and preparing for one would be a terrible disaster if it turns out to be the other. That is not the case necessarily, and the discussion needs more pointing in the direction of finding ways to cope no matter future outcomes. There were people that became very wealthy in Wiemar Germany, there were people who became wealthy in our own depression. There were people who prospered in Argentina during their crisis a few years ago. Time to figure it out.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:40 | 1325468 Renfield

Well, I think you/Mish are right in the idea that a lot hangs on what the lenders would prefer happen to the economy.

I am not convinced that deflation would prosper lenders more than hyperinflation - in hyperinflation they would not only get nominally 'paid' (no writedown on the balance sheet) but more importantly, also have first access to funds, a tremendous advantage over the debtors. Whereas in deflation/default, they do not get paid at ALL and have to take the writedowns. Not saying you're wrong, but just saying it isn't an easy call to make, that lenders will certainly prefer deflation.

You are correct in your point about how easily they could collapse the Dow. I am certainly expecting them to do so, same as they did in 2008. Summer/Fall of 2011 might be the ideal time for that, to justify QE3. As I mentioned, hyperinflations are (to my mind) often preceded by deflationary episodes, and this to me would certainly be part of the cycle.

"Under those circumstances the only way to ignite hyperinflation is to vastly increase circulating greenbacks, ie. monetize debt. Even then those bills have to get into the hands of you and me..."

I would argue that, even as they *are* monetizing debt with the QE programs, the bills would not have to get into the hands of you and me, but of the *buyers*. Bear with me for a moment - who are the buyers, of commodities, of resources, of every component of what is necessary for our lives (food & fuel & shelter)? It isn't us - it's the banks and the wealthy 1%, those with first access to funds. The money only has to get into *those* hands, to create higher prices, since they are the buyers - we are simply the 'retail' peasantry, and in a hyperinflationary scenario, we would never get enough money into our hands to push prices up - we will never have enough money, and will be chasing prices that will be spiralling up without us. It isn't us who push prices up - it's the market movers you're talking about. Hence, my point about 'first access to funds' being a tremendous advantage.

In this way, even in a hyperinflation, 'cash is king' - just not in the way it was in, say, the '30s when prices declined. Because in a hyperinflation, the retail peasant never has quite enough cash. (Retail cash doesn't lead prices; it follows them.) Governments distribute cash *in response to* prices rising; they don't *cause* prices to rise. That happens first, independently of government (and much to government's dismay).

As for houses deflating in price (not a point you made), this to me is part of that preceding deflation - so will art, collectibles, cars, electronics, and most important, labour. But all of these will deflate/stay flat in price when measured in gold, even during a hyper stage (since gold will rise with them). Food, fuel, rents, taxes (including property taxes) - these will all go up as those with first access to money set higher and higher prices very quickly. (Will it be called a 'commodity bubble' for awhile?)

"What counts is how do you prepare for your future in the case of either...the discussion needs more pointing in the direction of finding ways to cope no matter future outcomes...Time to figure it out."

Agree 100%. I wonder if one of the reasons this debate rages and gets so theoretical is that it's much easier to argue about the problem than to actually come up with solutions. 'Buy gold' seems to be something both 'hyperinflationists' and 'deflationists' agree on. So does stockpiling/hoarding/saving of necessities. We depart ways in stockpiling fiat cash, bonds, Treasuries, although I have a small pile of fiat in anticipation of a bank holiday and my perceived pre-inflation deflation :-) for that short 'market crash' period when all prices fall and I don't want to be wasting my gold/silver on rent.

Actually, paying off credit cards and mortgages is also something all camps seem to agree on. Most hyperinflationists I've read agree that holding onto credit in a hyperinflation is a big risk because, while it is nominally 'inflated away', you still have to come up with a cash flow to maintain it and unless you have first access to funds, your cash will be swept away by food & fuel prices so you can still 'drown in debt'. AND, there is no telling that the government won't specifically target debt interest to keep up with inflation, in order to protect lenders; or that debts won't simply 'reset' to pre-hyperinflation levels when a monetary change does occur.

Bottom line...in either case, mutually agreed solutions for us 'retail' peasants still seem to be along the lines of invest in PMs, save/hoard food (and fuel if you can get it), divest yourself of debt as fast as possible. The only real area of difference I can see is currency investment - do you stick with fiat/bonds or do you look for 'the next' currency, and try to get in early on that. I myself favour the latter, but then that is simply the age-old 'look for the next trend and buy early' investment game.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 00:42 | 1324502 akak

Speaking entirely for myself, the reason I get so heated about the whole idiotic debate over deflation vs. inflation is precisely because it is idiotic --- the deflationary argument is so lacking in common sense, real-world relevance, and most damning of all, flies in the face of ALL historical precedent and hundreds if not thousands of years of monetary history, that it infuriates me that it is still being endlessly rehashed. At this point, I must either assume that those who continue to mindlessly and/or disingenuously peddle the absurd deflationary "threat" are either woefully and willfully ignorant of monetary history, or else purposefully working for the financial and political power elite by spreading disinformation and malicious propaganda designed expressly to sucker the avearage saver and investor into making the WORST possible choices for themselves, but making exactly those choices that will best serve the sociopathic agendas of the ruling elites.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 01:03 | 1324530 AUD

Mish is a government bond shill? </rhetorical question>

I find the most confusing thing about Mish to be his like of both gold & government bonds. Maybe he thinks they are standards of equal standing. He has been right about the 'performance' of government bonds (UST's), when measured in government bonds (USD's) but doesn't seem to measure the performance of government bonds in terms of gold. Of course you are going to get a decent result when you measure something in terms of itself.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 00:26 | 1324466 boiltherich

In fact I did delete his reply, but I found a copy of the original e-mail I sent to him in my sent items folder and for what it is worth I will post it. I will say that for him to have taken the time to both read my mail and reply does to be fair indicate at least that he is interested in what people say even if he then insults your IQ and personality:

I have been a reader of yours for years mostly at FSO but at Global Trend for some while as well. Today I read your commentary paul-krugman-stephen-colbert-bill-maher slavery, which by the way, could you have used more inflammatory language in that title? I felt you needed to be rebutted on a number of your talking points and went to the comments section where 44 other people had posted yet nothing I tried worked.

I attempted to log in as a guest but could not, I tried using my Yahoo account but that did not work either.

I have, like I said, been a fan at Financial Sense Online for years, but I am finding lately that your brilliant thought process, and equally brilliant writing style, are being clouded by political positions. This would be OK and sure we all have freedom of expression, but when one leaves the economic and financial realm for that of the political it should be labeled as such, and invite healthy debate. Of the 50+ comments I see at Mish's today for this one analysis of collective bargaining very few dare to debate you or some of your more rabid supporters. And when I tried to post what I think is a reasonable response I can't.

So I will tell you a few of my ideas here and hope you can find the time to read them.

Nifty little map you posted showing which states allow bargaining and which do not. Of those that forbid collective bargaining on that map every single one of them was a slave holding state prior to the emancipation being forced upon them in 1863. Almost 150 years later we all know that the sentiments in those states surrounding that proclamation are not universally positive even now. It should also be noted that these states have among the highest poverty rates in the USA (Georgia 15.8%, Virginia 9.9%, NC 15.4%, and SC 13.9%, TX 16.6%) and the only reason VA is not in double digits is that the few counties surrounding DC are top heavy with commuters earning federal salaries.

Obviously unionization and collective bargaining are not the only factors in whether a state experiences above or below average poverty rates, but it is no doubt linked to the financial security of workers. For example, California has a poverty rate of over 14%, Arizona 16%, and NM 17%, taken with TX at over 16% and you see a pattern emerge that is obvious, the higher the Hispanic population the higher the poverty rate. But it is just as obvious that not one of the states in the prohibiting category has even average poverty, again outside the commuting region of Virginia.

Your article makes many points I would like to take on, but I know you have an avalanche of mail on top of your duties at Sitka, I will end by saying that what is universally deemed to be our economic pinnacle was the time post WW II to about 1963, a period which coincided with the peak in unionization and worker participation in decision making. Unions have been under assault since then and this move to end collective bargaining would be the effective end of union power.

I have only ever once worked in a union shop, when I was a financial analyst for the State of Florida. We did have AFASCME as a union but I did not join because why would one pay dues to a union when that union had no right to strike? As state employees we could bargain till the cows came home and died of old age but we had no leverage without the power to walk out on strike.

I do know that my father may only have been a bartending immigrant from Ireland, but he made enough income in the 1960's to buy a house half a block from the beach in my hometown in California, and his one income plus stepmothers half time nurses pay afforded six kids to go to private school. We had two newer cars, decent clothing and food, and good lives. The same standard of living now would cost me over 6 figures per year, probably closer to $200,000. In short two median incomes would not be half enough. So I am telling you that you can look at the economy all you want and write till your fingers bleed, but collective bargaining and unionization are not the cause of the collapse in living standards, and if we are going to deal in anecdotes as much of your article today was then I would posit that the collapse in living standards are directly correlated to the downfall of (dismantling of) union power.

Viva the Molly McGuire's, because that is what preceded the advent of unions, worker hostility because of slave like conditions, and company hatred for labor with battles and trials for both. Income inequality is at the root of all this and those very few among us still rich (or even just with positive net worth) will indeed learn a harsh lesson in very short order why it is imperative that those who do the labor must be properly compensated, and if they do not learn that lesson they will be on the shit end of the socialist stick because that is what is coming no matter how much one dislikes it. Socialism is a direct outgrowth of the poverty and exploitation of labor, and we are now at the most unequal point in income and wealth we have ever been. I do not like it any more than you might but capitalism always soils it's own nest with greed and socialism is always the response, so get ready.

http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty/data/incpovhlth/2009/state.xls

Thanks for your time Mish. HMMMM, No wonder he was foaming at the mouth now that I reread it, that is what a great bottle of Cabernet will do, let the dogs out! But note I did not call him names or otherwise personally attack his dignity and honor.

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:58 | 1324440 Mark Noonan

I've been reading Mish for a while now and I do believe he has a solid case to make against hyper-inflation...on the other hand, even after you've gone over his solid reasons against such an event you are still left with the fact that it could still happen...but only if the Powers That Be want it to happen. I've rarely seen it mentioned in discussions of th eGerman hyper-inflation that after it was over a senior German General (his name escapes me) noted that the hyper-inflation had wiped out the financial reason against resuming the war (ie, the German government owed massive amounts of money to the German people - this burden prevented re-armament even more so than did reparations). A bit of printed money and all that debt was discharged at a stroke.

Back in the early 1990's I got a sneaking suspicion that the purveyors of Big Government and Crony Capitalism would like to see a bout of hyper-inflation to de-facto wipe out our government debt...these days, I'm starting to feel that way, again. What to do when you have a debt crisis...you can either cut spending, or screw everyone who loaned you money. Which course do you think most commends itself to the Ruling Class?

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:41 | 1324418 g

i am just going tokick back and be entertained, i respect zh, mish, i do not know pcr that well. cracks me up when people get so sensitive, so what if you get mish'ed, or the reverse happens! the show goes on and i get to learn and be entertained the whole time.seeing these people get all strung out over this is better entertainment than anything on tv lol

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:41 | 1324416 boiltherich

Tyler, don't feel like the Lone Ranger there pardner. He is just a mean fellow, constipated or something. I have his website bookmarked and will go there because I like a variety of views and a lot of sources for breaking news, some blogs have their own skew on things, take Nyquist, I no longer read his stuff because he seems to have reverted to some 50's era commie nightmare, thinks Joe Stalin is hiding under his bed. But he used to come up with some interesting stuff if you could untangle it from his paranoia.

I wrote Mish an e-mail a few weeks back, you should see the insulting, condescending bull crap he replied with. I think I deleted it or I would forward it to you. OK, I get it, you don't agree, but do you have to be an asshole about it? Maybe his head is about to expolde from having so few predictions come to pass.

Anyway baby we here at ZH think you are better than tits on toast!

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:36 | 1324404 CEOoftheSOFA

The US did lose WW1. A lot of us were killed. We loaned a lot of money to the "Allies" and weren't paid back. The "14 Points" were ignored by the "Allies". And we didn't gain any territory. It was a complete waste of time. Almost as much of a waste as WW2. During the 19th Century we still remembered George Washington's warning to keep out of European alliances. We should not have forgotten in the 20th century.

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:39 | 1324403 UrbanBard

Don’t worry about Mish: he has an agenda. A debacle is coming, but we cannot know exactly when or how events will play out. Why? Because the FED and the other central banks can effect what will happen.

Could the FED throw us into a deflation, right now? Sure, but it is not in their interest to do so. They are Keynesians who believe that they can control events. They claim that price inflation is low, but they forget that the government fudges its economic figures. They tell us that prices are rising annually at about two percent when it is closer to ten. Next year, prices will unexpectedly double. The Keynesians do not agree that there is a relationship between monetary and price inflation which is delayed by 12 to 18 months. They don’t know that every government which monetizes over 40% of its budget has gone on to trash the value of its currency.

Like Mish, The FED has its agenda. It must keep funding the government until the economy recovers to bail them out. But, the economy isn’t recovering because of uncertainty, high taxes and regulations. The economy only improves though business investment, but businesses need certainty before they will invest. They need to know that there is a good chance they will prosper.

The Obama administration is quite hostile to businesses. It is, in its way, worse than FDR’s. FDR, & Hoover before him, dragged out the Great Depression for 15 years. The economy tried on three occasions to recover but the Federal Government intervened to prevent that. Obama has done much the same.

Meanwhile, the interest on the debt keeps growing to be an ever larger portion of tax revenues. If the FED allowed interest rates to rise then interest on the debt would consume all of the tax revenues. The FED is in a pickle; it can’t turn back. It must always try to avoid a deflation. It can’t repudiate its debts. It can’t stop creating new credit, so its actions must lead to hyperinflation. Everything else it did would get it blamed, but the FED got away with blaming higher prices on greedy businesses during the 70s.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 07:21 | 1324725 sbenard

Good insight! Thanks!

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:36 | 1324402 JohnKing

I can't read Mish, he opens a new window for every link, I would need a dedicated machine just to deal with that rudeness, of course I think that also speaks volumes about his opinion of himself. Like someone else mentioned, he will be right even when he is wrong.

You too can get Mished, it just takes awhile to close all the freakin windows/tabs..what a douche.

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:40 | 1324413 Kimo

Firefox doesn't seem to have that problem.

I've Been Mished

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