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I've Been Mished

Phoenix Capital Research's picture




 

 

I recently discovered that famed financial commentator, Mike “Mish”
Shedlock published a piece in which he quoted an article I published and
proceeded to tear my views (at least what he claims my views were) to pieces.

The actual article I wrote that Mish refers to is:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/time-prepare-hyper-inflation-it-explodes

The first line of the piece notes that it’s a continuation of several
other pieces I’d written before. Mish doesn’t bother referring to them
anywhere. He simply starts off by quoting the following:

The similarities between the US today and Weimar
pre-hyperinflation are striking. As in Weimar, US fiscal authorities are
not taking any steps to rein in their loose money policies. Similarly,
the US Fed, like Germany’s financial elites believes that currency
depreciation is a good thing.

Thus we have a rather frightening set-up for hyperinflation in
the US: the largest emerging market players are moving away from using
the US Dollar at the same time that US monetary authorities are engaging
in disastrous policies similar to those employed by the men who brought
hyperinflation to Weimar Germany.

I firmly believe the US will see serious (‘70s style inflation)
if not hyperinflation within the next 2-3 years. It could come sooner
depending on how the Fed’s policies play out.

The purpose of these paragraphs was to say that the financial elite
in the US are maintaining similar views to their counterparts in Weimar
Germany. I DO NOT say the US is just like Weimar (though I say I
believe we will experience similar hyperinflation at some point). I DO
say that the financial elites in both countries engaged in similar
practices. That’s a key difference.

Mish however, takes my quote to mean that Weimar and the US are
identical in every way. He then lists four key differences between the
two. His differences are:

1) Germany lost World War I

2) The Treaty of Versailles imposed repayment conditions on Germany that could not be met

3) To enforce the treaty, France occupied parts of Germany

4) Germany printed money so fast people burnt stacks of money for heat

On the surface these do indeed look like major differences (the US didn’t lose WWI, ISN’T forced by the Treaty of Versailles to make debt payments, isn’t being occupied by France, and has yet to print enough money that people burn bills for fuel).

However, these are only differences if one takes everything literally.

The US, like Weimar, is a massively indebted nation. And the US, like
Weimar, is being forced to continue to issue debt and repay it (though
in the US’s case it’s Wall Street and their lackeys in Washington
pushing for this). Like Weimar, the US CANNOT repay its current debt
obligations. And we’re also being taken down this road against our will
(this time by Congress which ignores the fact most Americans don’t want
us to issue more debt, similar to Weimar’s financial elite who continued
down their path of loose money policies).

And finally the US Federal Reserve is printing money… like Weimar. Is
it the exact same amount? No. Are people burning bills for fuel? No.
But did I claim that the US was doing this? NO.

Again, the primary differences Mish lists between Weimar and the US
are only differences if you take everything from a literal standpoint.
And I wish to reiterate that Mish didn’t correctly get the primary
points I was making in the sections he quotes. Of course that didn’t
stop him from saying it was all “nonsense.”

Mish then takes issue with my suggestion that a common currency in Asia could potentially be a viable alternative to the US Dollar as the reserve currency of the world.

Mish quotes the following from my article:

Indeed, it was just revealed that ASEAN+3 countries (Brunei,
Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines,
Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, China, Japan, and South Korea) are
researching the prospect of a “common currency” similar to the Euro.

The significance of this development cannot be overstated.

Once again, Mish ignores other parts of the article in which I state
that common currencies in general are flawed. He also ignores the fact
that I never actually say a common currency from Asia is guaranteed. I
DO say the following:

What I mean is that should a common currency be
introduced in Asia, it would probably work for about 10-15 years. By
then we’re well into the 2020s if not the 2030s at which point it is
quite possible China will indeed be in a place to provide a world
reserve currency on its own.

I wish to stress that even if Asia doesn’t implement a common
currency and the US Dollar remains the world’s reserve currency (I put
the odds of this at 20%), we are still facing a debt default in the US
which will result in the US Dollar dropping dramatically in value and
ushering in serious if not hyper-inflation.

The inclusion of “should” clearly illustrates that I am NOT saying a
common currency is guaranteed in Asia but instead could be a potential
option IF the respective Governments pursue it. Mish misses that point.
But again, it didn’t stop him from calling my piece “nonsense.”

The rest of Mish’s piece consists of the same literal interpretation
of everything I say. In the end, while trying to discredit my ideas
while presenting himself as vastly more astute than me (to readers who
likely didn’t even bother reading my article or the ones preceding it),
all he really does is indicate that:

1)   He doesn’t actually bother to understand what an author is saying before attacking his or her views

2)   He has no issue calling others’ work nonsense without bothering
to speak with the author or read additional material the author has put
out

Regarding the latter point, I actual have spoken to Mish several
times on the phone in the last few years. The most recent call was in
July 2009. At that time I called to discuss the inflation/ deflation
debate with him. Our debate consisted of Mish yelling for 15 minutes
straight about how inflation didn’t exist and that anyone who believed
it did was an idiot. I had to ask him to stop yelling several times so I
could actually say something.

This is why Mish’s piece wasn’t totally a surprise for me. I’d
already experienced his “no room for contrary views,” take on economics
personally. And it’s not surprising that a man whose notion of a
friendly discussion involves screaming over others would publish an
article attacking someone else’s ideas without bothering to even figure
out what the person is really trying to say.

By the way, the time when Mish told me inflation didn’t exist and
that I had to be insane to claim it was a reality was July 2009… when
Gold was at $900 per ounce, Oil was at $70 per barrel, Wheat was under
$600, and Copper was under $2.50.

However, I’m not going to personally attack Mish’s views or his writing because there are FOUR key differences between us:

1)   I believe that writing a piece attacking someone’s ideas offers little if any value to readers or investors

2)   I don’t actually read him much so I’m not familiar with his
views... so even if I wanted to attack him, I wouldn't feel comfortable
doing so

3)   Before attacking the ideas of someone who I’ve actually spoken
to over the phone (several times), I would first write him a personal
email asking him to clarify his points so I had a better grasp of what
he was saying

4)   I don’t consider views that are contrary to my own as “nonsense.”

Obviously none of these hindered Mish.

Graham Summers

 

 

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Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:13 | 1324349 web bot
web bot's picture

I've heard that at one point in time, Mish actually worked for a union pension fund for several months. That's why he now sticks to blogging behind a computer screen and spews his psycholtic hated for anything union.

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:43 | 1324406 Kimo
Kimo's picture

Oh, so you're saying he has first hand experience?

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 00:02 | 1324448 web bot
web bot's picture

Well... I wouldn't quote me on it... I'm not exactly sure where I heard this from...   :D

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 22:45 | 1324239 tinfoilhat
tinfoilhat's picture

Is it true the Wikipedia entry for "Confirmation Bias" now links directly to Mish's blog?

 

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 22:55 | 1324298 BlackSea
BlackSea's picture

Yes. His picture is also under that heading.

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 22:43 | 1324233 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Mish wrote the book on fallacy of argument... Look up fallacy in the dictionary... There will be a link to Mish's blog...

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 22:35 | 1324191 dolph9
dolph9's picture

Though Mish sometimes has valuable posts, he is in general a douchebag.

He attacks public unions as though they are the one, and only, source of our troubles.

And, like you said, he is incapable of having a pleasant conversation or even considering views other than his own.

Like other deflationists, doomsayers, and end of world types, he can never admit he's wrong.  He can't admit he's been wrong for the past few years.  When the inevitable round 2 of the crash/crisis comes, he will proclaim himself to be right, and enjoy his time in the sun, but then the crash will stop and he'll be wrong again. 

Guys like this are present in every society, and during times of trouble they come out of their caves.

Avoid them like the plague.  Keep on buying gold and silver on the dips with your Bernanke bucks.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 12:57 | 1325728 nowhereman
nowhereman's picture

Yes, I stopped reading Mish about the time he started his rant against the unions.  Although I I did like the Chris Christie stuff, I felt it was altogether too onesided.

I find it hard to understand how anyone can blame the working man for the problems created by the banks, yet that is what I take from Mish's rants.

It's similar to how the IMF demands that the people need to pay for the banks criminal proflegacy.  It just makes no sense to me.

Just like the whole "entitlements" argument.  Why ist it unjustified that a person, who paid taxes on their income, with the government's promise that a portion would be repayable at a later date be vilified for the expectation that that "promise" would be fulfilled?

The same goes for pensions and other benefits that were stolen by the ponzi financial system. 

I'm probably very naive in my thinking, but when did the economy take precidence over the people that live within it?  To me, and this may be simplistic, the economy is ment to work for us, and not the other way around.  The value of any economy is created by the labor and entrepreneurial abilities of it's people.  It was supposed to be designed to provide a mechanism for the creation of goods and services and the efficient exchange thereof.

When did all that change?  When did the middlemen, the non-productive segment of society< take control?  And the question in my mind is; How do we get it back?

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 22:38 | 1324187 gosseyn
gosseyn's picture

Mish is one of the most articulate of economic bloggers and he has often written that he expects the U.S. economy to go thru periods of both inflation and deflation over the coming years.  In addition, he is of the Austrian economics tradition and his views reflect one of the best, ie. grounded in the Austrian school, outlook that any blogger posts.  I've had my disagreements with Mish in infrequent correspondence with him.  Nevertheless, that you writers above diss him in favor of a paid contributor (Phoenix Capital who is a self-promoter with little solid economic understanding to his credit) to ZH is mind boggling.  Your viewpoints show just how ignorant and vacuous your own thinking is.   It appears that many of the posters, or should I say poseurs, on ZH are living up to the site's reputation - it is home to a bunch of paranoid conspiracy-driven know nothings who are quick to condemn without bothering to read and/or comprehend the articles that TD puts up on the site.

Junk me, you punks, and demonstrate to the rest of the world just how shallow and sophomoric you really are.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:33 | 1325481 Dollar Damocles
Dollar Damocles's picture

There are many many better Austrians, and I would argue that in fact Mish is on the fringe of the Austrian school.  Gary North wrote a devestating critique of him recently on lewrockwell.com and as you now doubt know Lewrockwell also runs the mises institute, i.e. is the center of Austrian economics today.  Mish isn't really an Austrian, whether he knows it or not, he is a keynesian who learned ABCT.  A very confused man IMO, who only got half the Austrian lesson.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 07:52 | 1324754 Smiddywesson
Smiddywesson's picture

"it is home to a bunch of paranoid conspiracy-driven know nothings who are quick to condemn without bothering to read and/or comprehend the articles that TD puts up on the site."

It is clear to me that the people here read quite a bit and are probably the best informed group on the Internet.  You are accusing us of not reading the articles on our favorite web site?

Paranoia and searching for conspiracy are not disfunctional psychological disorders in a world full of conspiracy.  With that world view of yours, you should be all-in the market based on the CPI and jobless numbers showing an improving economy.  After all, the President wouldn't lie to us about the "Summer of Recovery" would he?  Maybe he meant this summer, hmm?  If the President lies to us, and the Congress (when they take time away from their inside trading), and the military, and the corporations, and the media, and the church, how can you toss out the paranoid/conspiracy charge and not get laughed at in the face?  The only media figure we can trust is Ben Bernanke, because he can be relied upon to always be telling a lie.

Really, I am proud of being a "paranoid conspiracy nut", because in a world of liars, it allows me to think for myself.  It may not get me the right answer, but it is the only chance to get at the truth.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:09 | 1325368 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

You got that Chindit13?

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 02:05 | 1324579 whacked
whacked's picture

+1

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:56 | 1324415 Blindweb
Blindweb's picture

Oh no.  She invoked the holy word - Austrian school.  That makes it all better

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:36 | 1324401 Vendetta
Vendetta's picture

Jim Willie CB seemed to piss off Mish too and probably you as well.   Too bad ... in the end does it really matter? 

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 00:01 | 1324446 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

FOFOA as well.  FOFOA, for me, is the best blogger on gold on Planet Earth.

fofoa.blogspot.com

FOFOA just posted his longest piece ever on gold: "Honest Money".  It will take you hours to get through it, but it summarizes his views nicely in one article, even though it is LONG...

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 02:33 | 1324596 radsz
radsz's picture

Hi,

I stopped reading FOFOA after he placed a hit piece by Costata on silver. Costata in his piece grossly misrepresents positions of people like Eric Sprott and few others to suit his agenda of bashing silver. 

After this hit piece of Costata which looks like written by master of manipulation I started to have second thoughts about writings of FOFOA. If he supports Costata despite his manipulations maybe he is doing a similar thing? I liked him a lot but decided to stop reading him. 

best,

Radek

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 03:27 | 1324628 Burnbright
Burnbright's picture

Agreed, FOFOA has a feverish hatred for silver and so do a majority of the commenters there. They were so happy responding in that article you mention after silver went down 30%, honestly I couldn't believe it. Why would you want to hate silver or gold. Made no sense.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 07:25 | 1324728 Matto
Matto's picture

Sorry but you both need to re-read the disclaimers at the start of the articles. Costata's piece was a work-through of a possible theory and we are all better for having considered it. Personally I consider it incorrect but at least I considered it.

Their is no feverish hatred for silver, only that it's primarily gold that people use to store wealth and it is gold that central banks use as a monetary asset, not silver, so following FOFOA's pojections of future events it is most likely gold that will benefit most. That is all. Their position makes sense when you follow their logic.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 05:36 | 1324689 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

Burnbright & Rad I most respectfully disagree.  Hat tip to the DoChen.

I only skimmed Costata's piece, but to suggest that FOFOA has a 'burning hatred for silver' is a stretch.  His point, as I gather it, is that gold will simply out-perform silver and everything else as the preferred wealth reserve asset.  I happen to agree though I still keep some ASE's (currently less than 5% of holdings).

Gold, due to its limited industrial uses/needs is ideally suited to perform the 'store of value' function of money.  Hoarding silver or oil or wheat, for instance, would be disruptive to the efficient function of commerce.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:43 | 1325514 Dollar Damocles
Dollar Damocles's picture

@ Ignatius.  I think FOFOAs dislike of silver is really a calculated bet that the rich have chosen gold (not silver) and the rich will win.  I think FOFOA is right as well, but I also think that it is silly to believe that the poor man's gold won't be driven to spectacular highs in a panic just like it was in the 70s.  I still believe it is a leveraged play on gold, and will be pushed by the masses to the moon.  That being said, look out below!  Because once a currency that has some credibility is in place (backed in some form by gold), silver will quickly lose it's monetary (barter) premium (IMO).  So I guess what I'm saying, is that FOFOA is correct IMO, but I still am gonna try and play the GSR to my advantage.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 08:48 | 1328049 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

Yes, that could be a great trade if one gets the timing right.  Secondly, one needs to consider whether to go to cash or play the GSR and move over to gold.  Things could happen very quickly when the time comes.  Good luck.

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:36 | 1324400 NorthenSoul
NorthenSoul's picture

Austrian School of economics is like communism. It works very well...as long as it is not put in practice!

BTW, you seem very eager to engage in broad strokes ad hominem attacks against anyone who criticize Mish. Would it kill you to try to address the points raised by Graham Summer?

So yes! of course people will junk your post. Wonderful predictive capacity you got there Grasshopper!

 

Finally, don't use a handle you are totally unfit to use. Gosseyn in Van Vogt novels is the ultimate thinker and logician, while you act like a thalamic-driven Aristotelician!

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:09 | 1324331 malek
malek's picture

Mish has long and hard fought for and then defended his deflation view. Up to the point where I am not sure if he would ever concede that some things aren't working out as he expected them to.
And sometimes he resorts to definition semantics, or even that his deflation call is for the short-term, not for the long-term... which would be ok if he had pointed that out from the beginning.

I am waiting for the day he explains to us that hyperinflation is overall a deflationary event too - because after the old currency got destroyed, it finally one day gets replaced by a new one with a lot smaller nominal values...

But if you ignore that fixation he has a pretty decent blog.

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:01 | 1324309 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Zero Hedge has no paid contributors. A good place to start when making statements is to actually check their validity.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 03:51 | 1324637 longorshort
longorshort's picture

You really need to add a way to autohide crap posters like muir or personal blocking controls. We really dont need to see someones transvestite tits or ballsack babling nonsense like a all day.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 09:16 | 1324928 chunkylover42
chunkylover42's picture

So, censor those that you feel are crap posters?  Hmm, good luck with that.

A more reasonable approach would be for you to skip those comments that you don't like and let others decide for themselves.  Some of us are grownups, you know.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 09:46 | 1325026 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Censorship means you don't allow others to read the posts.  An ignore/autohide button does nothing but allow one to ignore people more easily.  That is extremely different from censorship.  Indeed, it is probably the exact opposite.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 00:55 | 1324524 tmosley
tmosley's picture

So you're saying we shouldn't Mishlead people?

But that leaves so many Mished opportunities!

Ha ha!  I'm here till Thursday.  Try the veal!

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:58 | 1324442 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

That was a nice and flat statement.  Now we know.  It is a good thing when the Tyler(s) come(s) in with an Official Statement about an issue talked about around here (paid contributors making ZH really, really rich by pimping out the blog).

Oh, but wait!  I recently pimped out my own new blog!  "Never mind..."

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 22:54 | 1324295 web bot
web bot's picture

So Mish, what's it like to blow yourself?

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 22:51 | 1324260 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

gosseyn, I tend to agree with you point of view on Mish. The problem with Mish is he picks a fight with everyone. He even disrespected a blog which his own site has a link to (CalculatedRisk). In a sense, a totalitarian worldview void of criticism. It is probably the reason why he never has good comments about those that may even support him. It is hard to gain respect for biting the hand that feeds you.

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:33 | 1324398 Kimo
Kimo's picture

"he picks a fight with everyonehe picks a fight with everyone"

 

He seems ok with Dr. Keen.   oh, and Ron Paul.  Oh, and Gov Christie.

 Oh, and....

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:33 | 1324369 akak
akak's picture

Mish is much like Karl Denninger, another rabidly emotional, authoritarian deflationist who is utterly unwilling to brook ANY dissent or challenges to his positions.  I suspect the reason that these deflationary flat-earthers are so intolerant, hypersensitive and cowardly in their attacks on those who challenge their absurd premises is because they know, consciously or subconsciously, that ALL of monetary history, most especially the entire history of the past several decades of the Fiat Money Age, refutes their ignorant and/or disingenuous deflationary theses, as there is not ONE example of an actual deflation under a fiat currency regime --- and no, Japan is NOT the one such example --- yet there are literally HUNDREDS of examples of chronically overspending governments that went into unsustainable debt, as ours is today, eventually resorting to (or being forced into) significantly devaluing their currency, or suffering outright currency collapse, with the concomitant loss of most or all of the average person's savings.

Mish, like other deflationary flat-earthers, also likes to perpetually trot out the strawman argument and false dichotomy of "either deflation or hyperinflation", with NO other possible outcome acknowledged.  I happen to believe that while deflation in the USA has as much chance of occurring as Elvis returning on the back of a unicorn, I think it is most likely that we will NOT see hyperinflation here either --- for what we most likely WILL be facing, just look into what happened in Argentina in 2001-2002: rapidly escalating inflation, sudden currency depreciation bordering on collapse, the loss of the bulk of most people's savings and the terrible decline in their living standards, the freezing-up of the banking system, currency controls, the temporary breakdown of the economy --- yes, all that, but it all happened without hyperinflation as usually defined.

The one thin reed to which the deflationary flat-earthers can cling is the tired old cliche of "this time it's different!".  Well, sorry, I don't believe for a second that it is.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 02:45 | 1324602 John_Coltrane
John_Coltrane's picture

You might try reading his blog sometime.  If you did you'd realize that Mish is a liberatarian (not an authoritarian) with views closest to that of Ron Paul.  He constantly writes about closing down foreign military bases, and immediate withdrawal of troops from Iraq and Afganistan.  If he believes one thing its summarized the Austrian motto:  debt=slavery, wealth= productivity.  I imagine you also have negative views of Hayek and Rothbard too.  And here's another revelation:  he's quite a fan of sound money (i.e. gold and silver), that's something you might consider positive. 

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 11:23 | 1325438 Augustus
Augustus's picture

Shitluck is as Authoritarian as any other idiot with pompous views of themselves.  He has advocated the complete prohibition of coal mining, oil drilling, nuclear power.  He has advocated a complete prohibition of building new retail stores and new subdivisions.  He has advocated for death penalties for US politicians.  Those are just for starters. 

The Windy City Wetter will have a special room named for him in the most prominent nut house in Illinois. 

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:49 | 1324431 web bot
web bot's picture

Hey Mr. Akak,

Nice to see you. We need to go and pay Leo a visit sometime soon.  :D

 

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 23:58 | 1324439 akak
akak's picture

Hey Mr. Web bot,

Leo (assuming he is a real person, and not just an inflamatory TD sockpuppet) will be getting what is coming to him, in spades, when the whole fiat house of cards collapses on his venal, blinkered, cowardly, collaborationist head.  And it couldn't happen to a more deserving person!

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 00:00 | 1324443 web bot
web bot's picture

LOL...

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 22:47 | 1324258 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

Your rant is called projection and transference...

Of your own behaviors and short comings onto others...

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 22:25 | 1324172 el Gallinazo
el Gallinazo's picture

An important difference between Weimar and the current USA is that the holders of the debt, England and France, were different parties than the treasury of the German Republic. In the USA they are one and the same under the GBC (government banksta complex). This is a huge difference as the Weimar treasury went into hyperinflation to screw the French and British (quite deservedly). But the bankstas are not about to screw themselves. Also, the USA does not function on a paper fiat economy. When the USA goes into HI, that's when the oil stops coming. With a 2/3 drop in total oil, everything is going to come to a grinding halt. Mulling over the exact details of how the Fed or Treasury is going to get this electronic or paper currency into an economy that has ground to a halt because low oil has seized the economic engine is an interesting thought experiment. One should not determine whether the near and mid term outlook for the country is deflation or HI by religious conviction. I often find that to be the case on this blog. It's better to keep the mind open and working. A mistake here could prove fatal.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 00:37 | 1324495 Dollar Damocles
Dollar Damocles's picture

@ el Gallinazo

"Mulling over the exact details of how the Fed or Treasury is going to get this electronic or paper currency into an economy that has ground to a halt because low oil has seized the economic engine is an interesting thought experiment."

Yes, it is an interesting thought experiment, and it is also quite simple.  The money will not come through credit expansion to people through banks, but through credit expansion to GOVERNMENT, and will (and is) entering into the economy through the paychecks of the huge % of the population dependent on government (welfare, SS, foodstamps (44million), gov employees, DOD, military, corporate subsidies, gov contractors, military industrial complex etc).

You make the excellent point that the "An important difference between Weimar and the current USA is that the holders of the debt, England and France, were different parties than the treasury of the German Republic.", but that we "owe it to ourselves".  So this seems to imply that you are assuming that because we owe it to ourselves, we will be able to just default on this unpayable debt outright, rather than through (hyper)inflation.  But does that make sense?  The US gov is spending $2 for every dollar it takes in taxes, and the majority of the difference is being printed.  So who is the money "owed" to?  An honest default would mean the VOLUNTARY implosion of the largest military empire on the planet.  Show me a politician who doesn't worship power...  An honest default would mean someone honest politician would have to tell the American people to kiss their SS, their HC, Medicaid, welfare, public education etc etc goodbye...  Show me that politician, and I'll show you someone who will not get elected, or will be "lone nutted" shortly after.

But back to the paper trail because the mechanics are very simple.  With banking inflation is goes...  1.  New money created from thin air through credit expansion.  2.  Enters into the economy through loans to individuals and corporations.  3.  Pools into "asset classes" causing price inflation in whatever is being bought on credit (i.e. housing, education, leveraged speculation in the stock market (.com bubble)).
But the once in a currency's lifetime game ender has a different (but mechanically similar) paper trail.  It goes...
1.  New money created from thin air through credit expansion.  2.  Enters into existence through loans to GOVERNMENT.  3.  Enters into the economy through the WAGES of the massive paracitic class of government wage earners (detailed in small part in Paragraph 2).  3.  Pushes up the prices of things purchased with this new money, which is EVERYTHING, but primarily food and energy.

The mechanics of how monetizing deficits causes new money to enter the economy are not complex, and this story has played it self out 1000x throughout the course of history.  Mish is wrong because he is focused on (the lack of) bank loans to the private sector.  He is not looking at THE BANK's (the FED) never-ending loans to the government sector.

For all the added complexity caused by having the WRC, in the end, the reason the US will hyperinflate is the same as every other hyperinflation in history...  The government (welfare/warfare state) is TOO LARGE for the home economy to support.  If you spend more than you earn and rack up a mathematically unpayable debt, it only ends one way, in default.  So the question just becomes a political one of whether it will be done honestly and voluntarily, or with desperation and lies.  Again, show me a politician willing to straight talk american's out of their promised benefits, and who will close down the global empire in an orderly manner, and I'll show you the next JFK.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 10:53 | 1325312 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Good post, but at the risk of becoming a cheerleader for one of the few decent politicians left with a bit of human blood coursing through their veins: Y U NO think of Ralph Nader?

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 18:53 | 1326897 Dollar Damocles
Dollar Damocles's picture

Only because if Nader, or Ron Paul actually by a miracle got into a position of power, and then by a further miracle, actually started making progress in dismantling the warfare/welfare state, they would have a "heart attack" real quick.  (assuming they didn't have a "heart attack" during a promising looking campaign).

I think it is a mistake to see a small group of elite in control, bleeding the US citizen dry, and not wanting to kill the goose that lays the golden egg.  Whether it is the CIA wanting another conflict and Haliburton wanting to clean up the mess, or Boeing wanting to build the planes, or a banker wanting a bailout, or a baby-boomer demanding his pension, or the corn farmers demanding their subsidies, or big pharma raking in the tax payer dough for swine flu shots...  It's not rational, and it isn't controllable because there are many and diverse interests all with their probiscuses firmly planted.  This isn't control from a handful of powerful special interests, rather, it is a pack of savage and starving dogs, all fighting for a bite.  The goose doesn't stand a chance.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 18:59 | 1326907 Dollar Damocles
Dollar Damocles's picture

I should clarify that last paragraph.  What I mean is that the interests that depend on a system of wealth redistribution are diverse and powerful.  Get someone like Nadler or Paul in office and the diverse forces that will ally against them would be shocking!  What does a baby-boomer, XE (blackwater), Haliburton, public unions, teachers, Big pharma, welfare recipients and food stampers all have in common?  They are all dependent on an institutionalized system of wealth transfer from the working, to the parasitic.  Inflation is just the way to squeeze the last drop of blood from a stone, and because the interests who live off the back of the US working class are so diverse, there is no control, and there will be no orderly, or rational default.  Only increasing violence as the competing interests fight over the last pie crumbs...

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 23:02 | 1327342 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

(hangs head) Sadly, I have to agree.

"Courage my friend, it is not too late to make the world a better place."-Tommy Douglas (who, it might interest you to know, made his little corner of the planet a much better place.)

...so as cynical as I am (and you are), it doesn`t absolve us of the responsibility to spend our lives trying. Ralph Nader has been at if for forty years, and won many important victories for mainstreet too; hardly a wasted effort.

Oh, and a quick priority examination is in order fo you: the low incomes on the public teat cost the taxpayers a small tithe of the wealth they are forced to redistribute "free for those who can afford it, but very expensive for those who can`t"; know what I am saying?

Suggesting that we should throw granny under a bus even though her pension is only paying a fraction of the wealth grandpa put into the system over a lifetime of hard work is fine for some, apparently, but it won't make a large enough difference anyway. Just this once I say we try a totally different tactic and start with the big fish, rather than taking the usual path of least resistance and censuring the defenceless.

Whaddaya say?

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 02:50 | 1327727 Dollar Damocles
Dollar Damocles's picture

I agree, but there is what I want and what I think is going to happen.  The best thing that Ron Paul, and Nader can do is run for office, but not win.  Because the election trail is a great pulpit to spread ideas from, but I don't want them in charge for the inevitable collapse.  We need their ideas for after, to build something better from the ashes.  But nothing will stop the collapse of the USD anymore than one can stop the tide or keep from dying.

Wed, 06/01/2011 - 02:48 | 1327726 Dollar Damocles
Dollar Damocles's picture

I agree, but there is what I want and what I think is going to happen.  The best thing that Ron Paul, and Nader can do is run for office, but not win.  Because the election trail is a great pulpit to spread ideas from, but I don't want them in charge for the inevitable collapse.  We need their ideas for after, to build something better from the ashes.  But nothing will stop the collapse of the USD anymore than one can stop the tide or keep from dying.

Tue, 05/31/2011 - 07:07 | 1324718 sbenard
sbenard's picture

Good, insightful comment. It gives me a perspective that I hadn't heard before, and that strikes me as valid. Thanks!

Mon, 05/30/2011 - 22:23 | 1324164 sellstop
sellstop's picture

You have to admit that inflation was all set to happen in '07. And then it didn't.

Now it is all set to happen in'11.

But the 10yr is at 3%.

Housing prices continue down.

And most important of all:

EVERYBODY expects inflation.

gh

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