James Bullard "Reasonable US Recovery...QE Must End" March Boilerplate - Compare And Contrast

Tyler Durden's picture


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard addressed members of various financial institutions on Wednesday at the UBS Macro Dinner in London.  He delivered remarks titled “U.S. Monetary Policy and the Path to Normalization.”    

During his presentation, Bullard explained how the Fed’s second round of quantitative easing was “a classic easing of monetary policy” and “an effective tool, even while the policy rate is near zero.”

Bullard also discussed the situation in early 2011, stating that “U.S. growth prospects remain reasonably good for 2011.”  He added that recent global and domestic events “present considerable uncertainty,” but he concluded that “the most likely scenario is that these uncertainties are unwound in relatively benign ways.”  He discussed such a de-escalation scenario for each situation. 

Finally, Bullard talked about the normalization of monetary policy and compared it to previous tightening cycles.  “Discussion of the normalization of U.S. policy will likely return as the key issue in 2011,” he concluded. 

And contrast:

The US is on track for a "reasonable" recovery in 2010, and the corner has been turned in the jobs market, James Bullard, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said in a CNBC interview.

Bullard expressed cautious optimism about the US economic outlook and argued for the reversal of quantitative easing before rate hikes as the best exit strategy.

"I think we are on track. I do think we are recovering. We will continue to have positive GDP growth in the first half," he said.

"I think we will get some good months of jobs reports coming up very, very soon," he said.

"I am looking for March to be strong and ... that (strength) will carry on in the couple of months after that," he said.

"I do think we are about to turn the corner on jobs," he added.

"Now it seems like the natural thing is to withdraw the quantitative easing and then as some later point raise interest rates," Bullard said.

He added, however, "I am in a minority on that, but I am working on it."

Bullard said the question was whether policymakers should raise the traditional, short term rate "which is supposed to have an effect on the whole term structure" or should they "sell some mortgage backed securities in a very slow and easy way in order to get the balance sheet back to normal."

Bullard said he favoured the second approach as an exit strategy.

One is from March 30 2011, the other is from March 22, 2010. Guess which is which.

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Dr. Engali's picture

He added, however, "I am in a minority on that, but I am working on it."

 QE3 anybody?

Tulli's picture

Off topic, please excuse me: 

Earlier today I google searched for Tokyo live webcams and looked at the ones located in busyest places.

TThe city appears pretty empty.

Are we receiving real information about the level of impact that the disaster has had over daily life in Tokyo?

Sudden Debt's picture



And unicorns will walk the lands again and elflings will help us to get mother nature back on track.

We'll also find a way to produce all the energy we needs from one drop of water

turn lead into gold and silver

Everybody will have enough food in the world and eat like it's Thanksgiving EVER DAY

All muslims will become christians

All christians will become muslims

And apple juice will become the reserve currency of the world!

DavosSherman's picture

Should be:  "I am in a minority on that, because we'll default if we stop QE II - but I am working on it."

Silverhog's picture

Economy is stinking drunk on QE2. Ok, lets see how it walks on it's own. I say it passes out and smashes it's head on the table.

Cdad's picture

LOL!  I'll grab my camera.

Sudden Debt's picture

QE1: billions

QE2: billions more

The Economy going flatline = PRICELESS!!

dbach's picture

I don't think the economy will flatline. Mostly because it already has. The real US economy is just puttering around with no real direction.

The market and financial lala land finally reuniting with reality -> that would be priceless.

bigdumbnugly's picture

yep, that's what happens when you mix a little qe3 into the qe2 punchbowl.

JonNadler's picture

wasn't the FED supposed to disclose the bank info? Whatever happened?

Debtless's picture

These aren't the droids you're looking for.

TruthInSunshine's picture

Good question.

There's no news or mention of this.

More arrogance from the Fed & their Main Stream Press lackeys.

Cdad's picture

Oh come on brother Truth,

I'm sure Kudlow will clear things up this evening.  I'm sure there is nothing in this record that you want.  I'm sure everything the bankers have done is straight up for the people.

You'll see....

TruthInSunshine's picture

All I know is that Larry Kudlow, convert to Catholicism after a bad run with coke, has asked everyone to pray to Baby Jesus that Japan's Economic hit be as small as possible under the circumstances.

He further said that the human casualties, past, present and future, due to any additional earthquakes, tsunamis and nuclear cataclysms, while tragic, must be for a good reason, and that this is "how the ball bounces & cookie crumbles."

Duuude's picture


Rumor of 25000 pages tomorrow...you know..end of month...


Data? We don't need no stinking data!


Fuck you Supremes!






Stoploss's picture

Somebody bash that idiot over the head with a typwriter and just get it over with already.

bigdumbnugly's picture

lol.  typewriter?  what's that?


Debtless's picture

It must end before Gold and Silver are out of control and the whole fiat party blows up.

zoggl's picture

Excellent comparison Tyler, very timely.

taraxias's picture

Excellent work as usual Tyler(s).

FunkyMonkeyBoy's picture

QE must end... so we can bring in something else under a different name that does exactly the same thing...

1. Transfer wealth from the many to the few.

2. Indebt this generation and future generations beyond all imagination.

3. Implode the US Dollar and the U.S and bring in the new world order.

TwoShortPlanks's picture

The average US household of 4 people has US$1 Million of gov & private debt...now, that's enough debt to ensure every middle and lower class citizen is servicing that debt forever!
QE is now ending because there is no need to increase the principle debt since the servicing is already established.
Get-it?! Just enough debt so that repayments last forever! No more, no less!

Urban Redneck's picture

More meaningless drivel

Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me

Robert Neville's picture

Strangely quiet about job prospects in 2011. He was obviously wrong in 2010.

TruthInSunshine's picture

Hoening & The Bernank are having a great laugh right about now, in a mahogany paneled room, being served single malt scotch by their private bartender, Jeeves, as they talk about the impression of division and debate they believe they've sown.

Bullard will soon walk into the room, loosen his tie, and join the frivolity.

Such is life, when you're running money for the mob.

Rockfish's picture

Bullard said the question was whether policymakers should raise the traditional, short term rate "which is supposed to have an effect on the whole term structure" or should they "sell some mortgage backed securities in a very slow and easy way in order to get the balance sheet back to normal."

Bullard said he favoured the second approach as an exit strategy.

Got this from cnbc earlier today "Fed turns down AIG offer to pay $15b for Mortgage assets.


Strike Back's picture

Our ignorance is strength MSM will never do a compare and contrast like this.  To juxtapose the inaccuracy of past predictions of TPTB to current statements would immediately alert people to the fact that their present predictions are well-timed but obvious lies.  It would be, and is, an effective form of critical thinking.  Thus the function  of the MSM: obfuscate critical thinking as much as possible.

GoinFawr's picture

If they are forever telling us QE will soon end does that mean QE is forever even though it is going to end soon?


RoRoTrader's picture

Perception management. The FED can claim it rescued the economy, rescued the banks and rescued the public with this approach. Defining the end of QEs is clearly subjective and subject to interpretation.

Lots and lots of spin coming on this issue.

Best guess; dollar keeps going to the shitter, but the American public are being led to believe no more printing.

Bullard said he favoured the second approach as an exit strategy.......and, is in the minority about ending QE.



PhattyBuoy's picture

You had me going there ... I was thinking does this guy not even know what year it is.

razorthin's picture

You can only wonder when the PE multiple day of rekoning will arrive.  If it becomes too protracted, even the ipad minions will revolt eventually.

DosZap's picture

Compare and Contrast James Bullard's boilerplate optimism: "U.S. growth prospects remain reasonably good for 2011...quantitative easing was “a classic easing of monetary policy and an effective tool" and "The US is on track for a "reasonable" recovery in 2010


Someone needs to tell him, 2010 sucked, and why is it even brought up, and 2011, has three quarters of shit to go thru.

What's he smoking?, everything is SO REASONBLE.

max2205's picture

Even if they did stop QE and raise rates. I'd give it one month before Corp USA starts screaming for QE 3

JoeStocks's picture

 4 straight weeks now with outflows to domestic equity mutual funds.


Start of another 30+ week string? Charles Biderman of Trim Tabs says the only thing that could be pushing up the equity markets is the govt.

RoRoTrader's picture

No worries, Bullard the chickenhawk will talk us all through it. Lying, cheating, stealing MoFo.

The aim is obviously to preserve the staus quo whatever the cost to the m/c of which unfortunately the /m/c has not a fucking clue, at least so far it has shown no clue or backbone either for that matter. No fighting back and let the bankers steal it blind and stupid, then let the fuckers eat cake.


metastar's picture

Don't let the Bull trick you into selling your Gold!

Quadlet's picture

This guy seems to know what he's talking about...  The end of QE2...



TwoShortPlanks's picture

You totally forgot to illuminate the scarcasm light.

TwoShortPlanks's picture

After many years of hard work tearing down all that constitutes sound monetary policy, 'The Bernank' lets his hair down; a job well-done...the fucker's got some moves too.

*everyone yell*   Bernank Bitchez!!!!!



Yeah, dat Bernank, he-da-man!