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Jan Hatzius' First Mea Culpa Post Jumping The Sell Out Shark
It was only two days ago that Goldman upgraded its own bonus pool by saying the economy is now going nowhere but up, up, up. That lasted for 72 hours. Below is Hatzius' (first of many) mea culpa for finaly selling out. We give the Goldman "strategist" 3 months before he starts beating the QE 3-666 drums again.
Jan Hatzius on NFP:
Disappointing All Around
BOTTOM LINE: A clearly disappointing report all around, with payrolls up much less than expected and the unemployment rate up. Although hours worked rose only 0.1% in November, this rough proxy for real GDP less productivity changes is tracking at roughly a 2½% annual rate. Flat wages coupled with the small increase in payrolls suggests very little wage and salary growth in November.
KEY NUMBERS:
Nonfarm payrolls +39k in Nov vs. GS +125k, median forecast +150k.
Private payrolls +50k in Nov vs. median forecast +160k.
Unemployment rate +0.2pts to 9.8% in Nov vs. GS and median forecast 9.6%.
Average hourly earnings flat in Nov (mom, +1.6% yoy) vs. GS +0.1%, median forecast +0.2%.
MAIN POINTS:
1. Nonfarm payrolls rose much less than expected in November. Modest upward revisions (+38k) softened the blow to some extent, but when added to the 39k increase reported for November the total number of new jobs was barely half the median 150k expectation. Increases were concentrated in business services (+53k), which includes temporary workers (+40k), education (+30k), and leisure and hospitality (+11k). One particular surprise was the loss of jobs in manufacturing (-13k); retail trade was also down (-28). Both of these sectors tend to lead the labor market; however, temps also fall into that category.
2. The household survey also disappointed, as the unemployment rate rose 0.2 points to 9.8% (9.817% unrounded). Although this partly reflected an increase in the labor force of 103k, the household survey's measure of unemployment was down 173k. Most of this appears to be due to differences in definition and coverage; when adjusted to match the payroll definition employment in this survey rose 44k. The "U6" measure of unemployment held steady at 17.0%, with increases in marginally attached workers offsetting declines in those working part-time for economic reasons.
3. Weakness was evident in the details on wages and hours worked as well. The index of hours edged up only 0.1% as the workweek remained unchanged at a relatively low 34.3 hours (the manufacturing workweek and overtime were also unchanged on the month). Thanks to a large increase in October, the hours index is tracking into the quarter at roughly a 2½% annual rate, so the report does not immediately call into question our upward revision to the fourth quarter growth rate, to 2½% from1½% previously (a revision indicated in any case by a firmer "bean count" of other indicators).
4. Average hourly earnings were flat in November, pulling the year-to-year change down to 1.6% from 1.7% despite a slight upward revision to the October increase. Coupled with a flat workweek and the small gain reported for payrolls, this report does not suggest much follow-through to the large gains in wages and salaries reported for October (which are apt to look even slightly better on revision).
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Since the "clearly disappointing" employment report was telegraphed by several other economic information releases at least a week ago, information that had to be deliberately ignored, it's clear the Goldman's "Amerika" upgrade to BLISS was carefully calculated to push the market higher in the face of "clearly disappointing" stock market results from QE 2.
QE2 from the Fed and now this "news" will be used to extend jobless benefits and retain all the tax cuts. Because . . . doing more of the same will get different results? Sigh.
GoldmanSachs is a hedge fund.
Expert HFT witness in Sergey Aleynikov trial discredited on cross examination, adding to Judge Rakoff's characterization of him:
the Court's frank characterization of Van Vliet's testimony as 'utter baloney'
http://www.courthousenews.com/2010/12/03/32291.htm
hummm, more goldman stupendousness, you got to hand it to these guys though, they're absolute wankers.
Is it time to buy the dip?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jllJ-HeErjU
WHORES, whores, whores, and more whores. A couple of years ago we sat at dinner with Jan. He was the most bullsih man on earth (well, aside from sweet 'ol Abby Joseph-Cohen / she's their Queen Bee). What is hilarious, is that publically they make wild procrastinations on the bullish side. Then, when you corner them privately, they hedge like a high priced Whore. It is all about generating "order flow" through their firm -- nothing more. A whore will say and do anything to get their hands on the money. Keep all this in perspective. They're all a JOKE.
Futures getting pumped up right now. Quite astonishing
WASHINGTON, D.C. – Dec. 2, 2010 – The Association of American Railroads (AAR) today reported for the week ending Nov. 27, 2010, U.S. freight railroads maintained traffic gains of 3.2 percent over the same week last year, originating 254,121 carloads. The comparison week from 2009 included the Thanksgiving Holiday. Intermodal traffic for the week totaled 183,790 trailers and containers, up 10.8 percent compared with the same week in 2009, with container volume up 11.7 percent and trailer volume up 6.1 percent.
The increase in freight traffic by the railroads is due to the inpending delivery of lumps of coal for Christmas stockings, according to sources at the North Pole.
Coal, bitchez!
What I would like to know is how many of those transports were GM cars being stuffed delivered to dealerships.
On the other hand, you could go to the Railfax site and look at the charts for rail traffic and see that although they are higher than 2009 they have rolled over and are dropping like a rock. Go to the very bottom and take a look at Auto and Waste & Scrap shipments and these 2 'leaders' look pretty weak.
Intermodal tends to be heavily influenced by the Chinese stuff coming through Long Beach and that is now dropping rapidly - it is very seasonal but, seems to be dropping more rapidly than usual. That said, it will boost GDP because of Exports - Imports for Q4.
http://railfax.transmatch.com/
666? is somebody acknowledging the /real/ truth, that what we are witnessing is not mere synchronized greed and corruption, but its nature, design, an aims are rooted in the occult???
http://biblelight.net/Tower-of-Babel.htm
This subject is considered verboten even among the "open minded" crowd because it's so easy to be branded crazy (if you discuss it) by the trolls, shills, psyops agents and closed minded. What is clear is that some of the elite do dabble in the occult. And not just as parlor games.
What we need to recognize is that more and more science is beginning to understand that frequency is the key to unlocking the power in all matter. And occult verbal practices, just like the chanting or verbal repetitions found in all religions and religious orders, might be the ancient and long forgotten vestiges of a way to unlock certain frequencies that open a world we now consider unbelievable and fantasy.
The classically trained mind reels from thoughts such as these. Yet there is so much that classic science simply can't explain because "reality" is ultimately subjective.
And the LHC may be nothing more than a device to open a portal to the other side -- similar to the plot line in Hellboy.
Use the chanting to unlock the door to the padded cell.
Yup, sound and vibration can't affect matter at all.
http://www.myspace.com/video/vid/1572438
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kO-QXyLSS20&feature=related
The only way to counteract the inevitable is to put your pants on back to front and call your dog Elvis.
VIX collapsing....
While gold reaches new levels.
good catch. seems counter-intuitive. however, the VIX should have been at these levels at yesterday's close based on recent SPY/VIX correlations.
JAN HATZIUS is WATCHING TOO MUCH "CRIMINAL MINDS" ON TELEVISION...
So uh, how we gonna blame this on Europe Mr. Blankenfeinstein? You want me to type in "Greece worries" or something?
closing the gap so far. there's an unclosed gap down at 118.5 to 120.2. let's call that the Trichet gap.
One month a trend does not make.
anyone saw LaVorgna on Fast Monkey last night? 160K was his forecast heheheheh...
i wonder if he has balls to come back tonight....
ISM ripped. Hatzius vindicated. New normal. The 90.2% of employed people do very well for themselves. At some point, albeit a few years away, the 4% of people get jobs and we are back to full employment.
55.0 on expectations of 54.8 isn't exactly ripping. If it is, then nonfarm payrolls had an inverse rip squared. The stock market has proven it can go in any direction on any day so from here to the close it is just a guess; however, the upside is limited by the 61.8% Fib (broken in pre-market) that is still holding the fort.
Are Goldman's analysts and executives getting visits from the Ghost of Christmas Yet to Come?
Bonuses for lying, cheating, and stealing are up -- the end.