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Jan Hatzius Warns Of Further GDP Downside Following Trade Deficit Update
Recently Jan Hatzius cut his Q1 GDP as was reported first on Zero Hedge, to 2.5%, even as the Goldman chief economist is still (we give it 2 weeks) keeping his FYE GDP outlook constant (who says bulge brackets don't believe in hockeysticks). Following the just released ugly trade data which as we suspected would lead to even more GDP downgrades, Dudley's successor is out with yet another warning that should come as manna from heaven to those who continue to believe in non-dilutable assets: "Through February, the trade data suggest a large drag on GDP growth in the first quarter and suggest downside risk to our 2.5% forecast." Gee whiz, Jan, if Q1 when the bulk of the tax stimulus is concentrated (which was the reason for Goldman's December bullish 180 on the economy) is unable to post an economic improvement, what is left for the rest of the year, when no more fiscal stimulus is projected, and when, gulp, QE3 is ending? We can't wait to hear your explanation for this.
Just out from Goldman:
BOTTOM LINE: US trade balance improves less than expected, suggesting downside risk to our Q1 GDP call.
KEY NUMBERS:
US trade balance -$45.8bn in Feb vs. GS -$42.5bn, median forecast -$44.0bn.
Import prices +2.7% in March (mom) vs. median forecast +2.1%.MAIN POINTS:
1. The US trade balance improved much less than we expected in February, narrowing to -$45.8bn from a revised -$47.0bn in January. The "Chinese New Year effect" (discussed in the April 6 US Daily) was much smaller than we expected, with real goods imports declining by $4.5bn but less than half of the change due to manufactured goods imports. Meanwhile, exports were extremely weak, falling $3.7bn in real terms - the largest monthly drop in real exports on record outside a recession - so that the real trade balance improved by less than $1bn. Through February, the trade data suggest a large drag on GDP growth in the first quarter and suggest downside risk to our 2.5% forecast.2. Separately, US import prices increased by 2.7% mom, reflecting increases in prices of fuels, other industrial supplies and materials (e.g. metals), and agricultural products. Prices of finished consumer goods excluding autos - which have the most direct implications for core inflation trends - declined by 0.2% mom after increasing by 0.5% in February. From a year ago, consumer goods import prices are up 0.3%. Prices of imports from China rose by 0.6% mom, the largest one-month gain since July 2008.
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GDP Downside, bitchezzzzzz!
:-)
/fun off.
It's a man baybee!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgOIEGz7o_s
it's a six year old girl's encounter with the TSA
http://bit.ly/gArQ43
Did you notice how Youtube has stopped the View Count yet again?
This guy is what? Day trading the GDP? He changes his calls wildly ever half hour!
cough... inflation adjustment cough, cough... they forgot cough...
you can't flog a dead horse, or stagnant economy, with more debt and expect it to dig itself out of an even deeper hole
presumably suicide socialism (Keynsianism) will finally be buried with Benny, Geithner, the Democrat and Republican parties once and for all???
The more I look at it, the more I'm convinced they do it on purpose for a "greater good".
Everybody knows that going into debt to solve a problem is bad. There are about 14 trillion examples that show it never ends well.
QE3, set in stone..or GDP goes negative..higher taxes and interest rates thats the ticket. and of course more gov spending much more.
the deficit will remain as high as it is now.
Unless they find a new "source of income" it's over with the US.
So taxes will come after the elections. Whoever wins, higher taxes are a fact*
* unless you make +1 million$/year.
John, please just shut the fuck up. You're really fucking annoying.
Serious question here...does anyone really give a shit what these now entirely exposed as criminal syndicate Wall Street bankers, brokers, and analysts say anymore? I mean beyond the obvious set up for their knee jerk, front running, head fake bullshit?
Again, nothing in our markets will actually materially improve such as to cause true recovery until guys like Jan Hatzius have simply moved on to spend more time with family. Until 100,000 of these assholes are released from NY, NY [which would simply be a good start], these guys have nothing to do with anything anymore...as far as I am concerned.
Have they convinced anyone other than Ben Bernanke to re enter the market? Ummmm...no. Why? Because these very same people destroyed the market...and there is no market to come back to.
These guys will not inspire true capital formation. They have no credibility. Jan Hatzius has zero cred. J. Dimon...same. What is the mystery here?
additional:
--listening to Jan Hatzius on the economy would be the same as listening to Boone Pickens on energy. He's building windmills. Seriously.
--listening to Jan Hatzius on the economy is like listening to Cramer on stock selection and entry points [aka how to emotionally buy high and sell low]
didn't even know dudley was scheduled to speak today....day must have a "y" in it i guess
The new world order is pursuing a goal of a dysfunctional global trade engine using a hugely distorted balance of trade to propel very large disparities between physical import dependent and physical export dependent countries which makes them vulnerable to the powers of finance.
Global trade in its present manifestation is a farce - the mechanism to continue this punch and Judy show is overvalued debt currencies.
The production of paper withen the financial centres is the most profitable extraction mechanism known to man.
Who needs slavery when men want to be slaves ?
Ireland is not only continuing its trade surplus traditions but has moved back into current account surplus !!!!!!
We are giving our masters the very best.
Bend over Bitch.