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Janet Tavakoli On The Financial System, AIG Speculation, Commodities, Jim Rogers, Deflation, Inflation And The Dollar

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Below is the last part of Tavakoli's interview with Max Keiser.

 

And a note from Janet herself:

In Chapter 12 of Dear Mr. Buffett I predicted we would be suffering from stagflation by now. I believe this will eventually occur, but I was wrong about how quickly we would be at risk for inflation. We are still feeling the effects of a collapsing asset bubble resulting in demand deflation (except for food, energy and isolated pockets.) Instead of allowing necessary deflation (restructuring of AIG, investment banks and troubled banks), the Fed is trying to paper over the problem. We criticized Japan when it did this (and lost two decades), and now we are doing the same thing.

In the video, I mention I went to cash in 2007 (it sounds like 2000, so perhaps I misspoke). I also mention that “believing economists…” and the audio distortion makes it sound like “bleeding” economists.

In the earlier (posted on maxkeiser.com on October 2) first half of the interview, I misspoke. I meant to say that JPMorgan merged with WaMu (not Wachovia) and Bear Stearns. Shortly thereafter, I mentioned the Wells/Wachovia merger (Wachovia had already done the disastrous Golden West merger).

 

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Sun, 10/11/2009 - 15:15 | 95957 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

I wonder what Janet thinks of all the effort being applied to the process of further encumbering future income streams in this environment when the premise is built upon a 2% inflation with a 5% p.a. weakening of the currency?

Interesting thinking from Janet.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 15:47 | 95976 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

link wouldn't work

here is another link of the same interview

 

http://blip.tv/play/AwGXrgo
Sun, 10/11/2009 - 15:51 | 95980 Ruth
Ruth's picture

Janet should be our risk czar!

Mon, 10/12/2009 - 00:31 | 96211 TumblingDice
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Nassim Taleb just puked in his coffee. ;)

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 15:56 | 95984 Stargroves
Stargroves's picture

Listen I am telling all of you I know the woman she has brought up some good points but PLEASE take everything Janet says with HUGE (as in Boulder sized) grain of salt. 

 

She worked in the industry her entire career on derivatives desks so she know how the sausage is made but here faux outrage in largely manufactured - because it is good for her consultancy.

 

Just saying.

 

 

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 17:57 | 96019 sgt_doom
sgt_doom's picture

Outstanding point, Lord Stargroves.  Tavakoli is just as culpable as many others, she now is simply sounding exactly like Prof. Elizabeth Warren (chair of the Congressional Oversight Panel on TARP).  And Prof. Warren sounds much better, much more honest, and much more intelligent.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 18:11 | 96025 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

I was thinking of the Warren comparison as well - unfortunately the good Professor for all of her apparent good intentions doesn't seem to have gotten much traction. I saw an an early AM interview with her on Bloomberg Asia a couple of weeks ago where she ripped the Fed et. al. but it is no where to be found on Bloomys site. 

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 21:06 | 96121 agrotera
agrotera's picture

Poor Professor Warren...I can imagine that her life became instantly a scary scene when she was charged to "look into" the dealings of the TARP--like having to look into the devil's eyes--

she, like a good lawyer, has drawn every possible picture to show the fraud and abuse that was committed by treasury, but sadly, she has now witnessed how, none of what she says is going to be taken in as evidence that further investigation is warranted...i wonder what she might say "off the record" about what needs to happen to clean up the Washington Wallstreet Machine.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 18:03 | 96022 AN0NYM0US
AN0NYM0US's picture

Sg

Stones fan?

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 18:54 | 96049 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

whether or not she was a part of the problem in
her previous life i am more than happy for her
to speak out against the fraud which runs rampant...

i hardly see how a boulder sized grain of salt
is needed....is she advising lloyd on the side
how to make more crap?

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 17:48 | 96015 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

it was ever thus. To paraphrase Adam Smith, everyone acts in their own best self interest

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 18:02 | 96021 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

“The World Gas Conference in Buenos Aires last week was one of those events that shatter assumptions. Advances in technology for extracting gas from shale and methane beds have quickened dramatically, altering the global balance of energy faster than almost anybody expected.

Tony Hayward, BP’s chief executive, said proven natural gas reserves around the world have risen to 1.2 trillion barrels per day of oil equivalent, enough for 60 years’ supply – and rising fast.”

“This has currency implications. If you strip out the energy deficit, America’s vaulting savings rate may soon bring the current account back into surplus – and that is going to come at somebody else’s expense, chiefly Japan, Germany and, up to a point, China.”

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/629929...

Mon, 10/12/2009 - 00:18 | 96208 juliawong
juliawong's picture

it's true and I know these from reliable, frontier ppl.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 18:25 | 96037 dot_bust
dot_bust's picture

She makes some good points. I've love it if someone would look at the SIVs that Citigroup set up on Grand Cayman to move CDOs off their balance sheet and give out mortgage loans in perpetuity.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 18:25 | 96039 rhinotrader
rhinotrader's picture

Well, us bears are in trouble tomorrow, low vol ramp will be in high gear. I predict Dow up 75 to 125pts up. 4 trading days left for Oct index options expiration and max pain. FML

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 19:00 | 96050 tradeking13
tradeking13's picture

Why is Norm MacDonald interviewing Janet Tavakoli?

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 19:18 | 96061 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

Jim Willie says she is a deflation knuclehead. Debtor nations currencies tend to lose value  in these situations. Look at Iceland and Zimbabwe or Thailand in 1997.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 19:19 | 96062 bb5
bb5's picture

I don't know how she could have all that knowledge and not be long gold. 

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 19:23 | 96065 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Max Keiser will not respond when asked about the trillions in surplus assets reported by the federal government on their comprehensive annual financial report.Perhaps Mr. Durden can enlighten us on the worlds biggest stash of wealth ever.Big meaning larger than the debt and all future entitlments combined.Take a look at Manhattan's CAFR first to warm up your brain stem.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 19:33 | 96074 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Tyler can you comment on the trillions of surplus assets in the accounts of the federal government?(or a state or city such as Manhattan)Max Keiser will not.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 19:54 | 96082 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

she's not going to publicly disclose her position on anything, she may very well be long gold, who knows, but I find it hard to believe she's going to announce it.

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 20:55 | 96118 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

"I believe this will eventually occur, but I was wrong about how quickly we would be at risk for inflation."

Talk about hedging your position. At least the inflation people seem to be sure about double digit rates, $5K gold, $10./gal. gas, etc...

Plus, my new favorite Glenn Beck hyperinflation quote, "If I was a pesimist and belived these things would happen (hyperinflation), I wouldn't be living here in NYC. They are going to be eating each other in this city. Things collapse, it isn't going to be pretty here."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gB62HNjNmGI

Mon, 10/12/2009 - 03:14 | 96249 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

Beck is right. If we do get hyperinflation, the division of labor would break down and cities would become death zones. Literally millions of urban dwellers would die within weeks.

Thus the Fed will try to stop short of hyperinflation. Bankers live in cities and the number one priority of the Fed is to protect bankers. The question is can they really go full speed towards the cliff and then stop just short of the edge?

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 21:32 | 96132 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

got to like someone prepared to go on record and correct their mistakes (above note)

i have an increasingly growing respect for Janet Tavakoli

- and it doesn't hurt that she is so easy on the eyes.

jules from Oz

Sun, 10/11/2009 - 23:43 | 96187 Anonymous
Anonymous's picture

She sounded sensible until she said that she is not long on gold or the dollar. What? Is she blind? Does she not see what the Fed is doing? Any advisor that makes such an ignorant statement should be dismissed out right.

Mon, 10/12/2009 - 07:20 | 96285 Sqworl
Sqworl's picture

I want to know what Cheeky thinks of his former flames new fame? lol

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