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Janet Tavakoli On The Financial System, AIG Speculation, Commodities, Jim Rogers, Deflation, Inflation And The Dollar
Below is the last part of Tavakoli's interview with Max Keiser.
And a note from Janet herself:
In Chapter 12 of Dear Mr. Buffett I predicted we would be suffering from stagflation by now. I believe this will eventually occur, but I was wrong about how quickly we would be at risk for inflation. We are still feeling the effects of a collapsing asset bubble resulting in demand deflation (except for food, energy and isolated pockets.) Instead of allowing necessary deflation (restructuring of AIG, investment banks and troubled banks), the Fed is trying to paper over the problem. We criticized Japan when it did this (and lost two decades), and now we are doing the same thing.
In the video, I mention I went to cash in 2007 (it sounds like 2000, so perhaps I misspoke). I also mention that “believing economists…” and the audio distortion makes it sound like “bleeding” economists.
In the earlier (posted on maxkeiser.com on October 2) first half of the interview, I misspoke. I meant to say that JPMorgan merged with WaMu (not Wachovia) and Bear Stearns. Shortly thereafter, I mentioned the Wells/Wachovia merger (Wachovia had already done the disastrous Golden West merger).
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I wonder what Janet thinks of all the effort being applied to the process of further encumbering future income streams in this environment when the premise is built upon a 2% inflation with a 5% p.a. weakening of the currency?
Interesting thinking from Janet.
link wouldn't work
here is another link of the same interview
http://blip.tv/play/AwGXrgoJanet should be our risk czar!
Nassim Taleb just puked in his coffee. ;)
Listen I am telling all of you I know the woman she has brought up some good points but PLEASE take everything Janet says with HUGE (as in Boulder sized) grain of salt.
She worked in the industry her entire career on derivatives desks so she know how the sausage is made but here faux outrage in largely manufactured - because it is good for her consultancy.
Just saying.
Outstanding point, Lord Stargroves. Tavakoli is just as culpable as many others, she now is simply sounding exactly like Prof. Elizabeth Warren (chair of the Congressional Oversight Panel on TARP). And Prof. Warren sounds much better, much more honest, and much more intelligent.
I was thinking of the Warren comparison as well - unfortunately the good Professor for all of her apparent good intentions doesn't seem to have gotten much traction. I saw an an early AM interview with her on Bloomberg Asia a couple of weeks ago where she ripped the Fed et. al. but it is no where to be found on Bloomys site.
Poor Professor Warren...I can imagine that her life became instantly a scary scene when she was charged to "look into" the dealings of the TARP--like having to look into the devil's eyes--
she, like a good lawyer, has drawn every possible picture to show the fraud and abuse that was committed by treasury, but sadly, she has now witnessed how, none of what she says is going to be taken in as evidence that further investigation is warranted...i wonder what she might say "off the record" about what needs to happen to clean up the Washington Wallstreet Machine.
Sg
Stones fan?
whether or not she was a part of the problem in
her previous life i am more than happy for her
to speak out against the fraud which runs rampant...
i hardly see how a boulder sized grain of salt
is needed....is she advising lloyd on the side
how to make more crap?
it was ever thus. To paraphrase Adam Smith, everyone acts in their own best self interest
“The World Gas Conference in Buenos Aires last week was one of those events that shatter assumptions. Advances in technology for extracting gas from shale and methane beds have quickened dramatically, altering the global balance of energy faster than almost anybody expected.
Tony Hayward, BP’s chief executive, said proven natural gas reserves around the world have risen to 1.2 trillion barrels per day of oil equivalent, enough for 60 years’ supply – and rising fast.”
“This has currency implications. If you strip out the energy deficit, America’s vaulting savings rate may soon bring the current account back into surplus – and that is going to come at somebody else’s expense, chiefly Japan, Germany and, up to a point, China.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/629929...
it's true and I know these from reliable, frontier ppl.
She makes some good points. I've love it if someone would look at the SIVs that Citigroup set up on Grand Cayman to move CDOs off their balance sheet and give out mortgage loans in perpetuity.
Well, us bears are in trouble tomorrow, low vol ramp will be in high gear. I predict Dow up 75 to 125pts up. 4 trading days left for Oct index options expiration and max pain. FML
Why is Norm MacDonald interviewing Janet Tavakoli?
Jim Willie says she is a deflation knuclehead. Debtor nations currencies tend to lose value in these situations. Look at Iceland and Zimbabwe or Thailand in 1997.
I don't know how she could have all that knowledge and not be long gold.
Max Keiser will not respond when asked about the trillions in surplus assets reported by the federal government on their comprehensive annual financial report.Perhaps Mr. Durden can enlighten us on the worlds biggest stash of wealth ever.Big meaning larger than the debt and all future entitlments combined.Take a look at Manhattan's CAFR first to warm up your brain stem.
Tyler can you comment on the trillions of surplus assets in the accounts of the federal government?(or a state or city such as Manhattan)Max Keiser will not.
she's not going to publicly disclose her position on anything, she may very well be long gold, who knows, but I find it hard to believe she's going to announce it.
"I believe this will eventually occur, but I was wrong about how quickly we would be at risk for inflation."
Talk about hedging your position. At least the inflation people seem to be sure about double digit rates, $5K gold, $10./gal. gas, etc...
Plus, my new favorite Glenn Beck hyperinflation quote, "If I was a pesimist and belived these things would happen (hyperinflation), I wouldn't be living here in NYC. They are going to be eating each other in this city. Things collapse, it isn't going to be pretty here."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gB62HNjNmGI
Beck is right. If we do get hyperinflation, the division of labor would break down and cities would become death zones. Literally millions of urban dwellers would die within weeks.
Thus the Fed will try to stop short of hyperinflation. Bankers live in cities and the number one priority of the Fed is to protect bankers. The question is can they really go full speed towards the cliff and then stop just short of the edge?
got to like someone prepared to go on record and correct their mistakes (above note)
i have an increasingly growing respect for Janet Tavakoli
- and it doesn't hurt that she is so easy on the eyes.
jules from Oz
She sounded sensible until she said that she is not long on gold or the dollar. What? Is she blind? Does she not see what the Fed is doing? Any advisor that makes such an ignorant statement should be dismissed out right.
I want to know what Cheeky thinks of his former flames new fame? lol