January CMBS Delinquencies Hit Record At $46 Billion, 5.8% Of Total, A 10.3% Increase Sequantially And A 325% Increase Year Over Year

Tyler Durden's picture

On one hand you have Moody's REAL CPPI index telling you commercial real estate prices not only bottomed in December, but are now increasing at the fastest rate in years. On the other hand you have reality staring you in the face (that is if you are reading the February RealPoint CMBS report), in the form of $46 billion in CMBS delinquencies in January: this was a record 5.762% of total, and represents a 325% increase from the $10.8 billion inJanuary 2009 (and a 10% increase sequentially). Contrary to all propaganda punditry, the rate of deterioration in commercial real estate keeps accelerating. Oh, and this number does not include the $3 billion Stuy Town default, which will be counted for the first time in March. Look for the % of delinquent loans to hit 8%-9% within 6 months, about the time when TALF will be really needed. Too bad TALF expires the same day as Quantitative Easing for MBS ends, March 31.

More from Realpoint:

Overall, the total unpaid balance for CMBS pools reviewed by Realpoint for the January 2010 remittance was $797.3 billion, up slightly from $797.18 billion in December 2009 (affected by some servicer and trustee reporting delays). Both the delinquent unpaid balance and delinquency percentage over the trailing twelve months are shown in Charts 1 and 2, clearly trending upward. The resultant delinquency ratio for January 2010 of 5.76% (up from the 5.22% reported one month prior) is over four times the 1.281% reported one-year prior in January 2009 and 20 times the Realpoint recorded low point of 0.283% from June 2007. The increase in both delinquent unpaid balance and ratio over this time horizon reflects a steady increase from historic lows in mid-2007.

The $4.1 billion Extended Stay Hotel loan from the WBC07ESH transaction remained 90+-days delinquent in January 2010. Realpoint expects the delinquency for this loan to continue in the near-term until any modification or restructuring agreement is reached. In addition, the $3 billion Peter Cooper Village / Stuyvesant Town loan spread through multiple CMBS deals via pari passu structure is now expected to be reported delinquent in March 2010. On January 25, 2010, Tishman Speyer announced their intention to transfer title to the Lender via Deed-in-Lieu of foreclosure. The Borrower initially sought a forbearance (which was not granted), and ultimately did not make the full payment due in January 2010, which triggered a default under the mortgage loan. Funds have subsequently been swept from all reserves / escrows and applied to debt service in January and February 2010 (thus reserves are essentially depleted) and the borrower has indicated it will no longer fund debt service shortfalls.

Therefore, with the $4.1 billion delinquency of the Extended Stay Hotel loan, the expected delinquency of the $3 billion Peter Cooper Village / Stuyvesant Town loan, and the experienced average growth monthover-month, Realpoint now projects the delinquent unpaid CMBS balance to continue along its current trend and grow to between $60 and $70 billion by mid 2010. Based upon an updated trend analysis, we now project the delinquency percentage to grow to between 6% and 7% through the first quarter of 2010, potentially approaching and surpassing 8-9% under more heavily stressed scenarios through the mid-2010). This forecast / outlook is driven by the watchlist reporting of several Realpoint identified High Risk Loans from recent vintage transactions that continue to show signs of stress and are on the verge of delinquency, along with continued balloon maturity defaults from more seasoned transactions. As part of our monthly surveillance efforts of every CMBS transaction, we continue to monitor in detail many large Realpoint Watchlisted loans that have never met their pro-forma underwritten expectations. This includes a large amount of loans that remain current in payments but have already been transferred into special servicing - many of which may ultimately default based upon a denial of requests for loan modifications or debt restructuring by the special servicers, or a decision by borrowers to surrender the collateral.

With TALF expiring soon, is it time to start, if not panicking, then realizing that mere good intentions and a large vocabulary will not do much for the billions in missing interest expense that will result in creeping defaults across all CMBS classes and vintages.

For those who still believe glimmers of reality may eventually creep into capital markets, here are RealPoint's near-term projections.

  • Over the past three months, delinquency growth by unpaid balance has averaged roughly $4.47 billion per month. Assuming ongoing monthly pay-down and liquidation activity, if such delinquency average were increased by an additional 25% growth rate, and then carried through the first quarter 2010, the delinquent unpaid balance would reach $57 billion and reflect a delinquency percentage slightly above 7% by March 2010. Carried through mid-2010, the delinquent unpaid balance would top $73 billion and reflect a delinquency percentage above 9.5% by June 2010.
  • In addition to this growth scenario, if we again add-in the default of the $3 billion Peter Cooper Village / Stuyvesant Town loan, the delinquent unpaid balance would reach $60 billion and reflect a delinquency percentage above 7.6% by March 2010. Carried through mid-2010, the delinquent unpaid balance would top $76.9 billion and reflect a delinquency percentage near 10% by June 2010.

For everyone else, we suggest you follow whatever the momo trade of the day is, and don't forget sell to some other greater fool. The latter is something the market has lots of. Until it doesn't.

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Joe Sixpack's picture

That's turning parabolic (may go exponential).

SWRichmond's picture

Eyeball curvefit...it does look that way, doesn't it?

Anonymous's picture

But it would only take a couple of values (like the first one, for example) to be slightly off to make it linear.

And I am not sure that rising delinquencies can't exist at the same time as rising prices, at least in the beginning when prices are rising at first. There is still bound to be regional variation in recovery.

Gordon_Gekko's picture

Dow 36000...here we come!

SteveNYC's picture

Haha, was thinking the same thing. Who is going to be stuck holding this shit when it all comes down? How stupid are "investors", seriously?

Anonymous's picture

"investors" are incredibly stupid and getting a little desperate for higher returns. Money markets are really pathetic and sheeple are caving in for some short term (but high risk) trades !! 401k programs that started in 1982 are really becoming the bane of the (sheeple) middle class of this country.

Anonymous's picture

Close TALF, introduce TALF2 bigger, better and uncut.

Fritz's picture

RTC-style solution coming soon to a Federal Treserve near you.

Bend over taxpayers... and bring some astroglide.


chindit13's picture

REITs defy gravity better than a dancer's butt, plus they can reproduce/dilute the gene pool faster than a practicing polygamist.  Banks' IS and BS need not reflect reality if reality might "confuse" investors, and Bernanke stands ready to pick up any wallflower CMBS paper that cannot find a gullible suitor.  QE2 is in the shipyard getting the last coat of varnish on the teak decks, and Mrs. Bernanke already has the bottle of champagne to break against the bow.

Potemkin Village is well bid.


wake the roach's picture

"For everyone else, we suggest you follow whatever the momo trade of the day is, and don't forget sell to some other greater fool. The latter is something the market has lots of. Until it doesn't."


60's-weed, psychedelics.

70's-weed, psychedelics, cocaine. 

80's-weed, psychedelics, cocaine, heroin.  

90's-weed, psychedelics, cocaine, heroin, amphetamines. 

20's-weed, psychedelics, cocaine, heroin, amphetamines and debt... 



jc125d's picture

Homegrown's all right with me.
Homegrown is the way it should be.
Homegrown is a good thing.
Plant that bell and let it ring.

Fritz's picture

I'm sure the entire CMBS problem can be blamed on the snow storms. 

chindit13's picture

And the snowstorms can be blamed on global warming....oops, make that climate change.  It's been a bad winter, so it's time to mark that data to model, too.

system failure's picture

The spin docotors will have no fun with this one. Considering their building is probably behind on payments as well. Everyone is buying cars when they should be buying SUV's to have a comfortable living quarter.

MsCreant's picture


My Senator emailed me this, this evening. I was asked to post this if I ever got an answer back to my email. Could not figure out which thread was best.

I hate politicians.


Dear MsCreant,


Thank you for contacting my office regarding the confirmation of the Ben Bernanke as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. Your input is important to me, and I appreciate the time you took to share your thoughts.


Like you, I understand the importance of having strong federal monetary policy with appropriate oversight measures, particularly during these difficult economic times. Due to the Federal Reserve's active role in attempting to stabilize our financial system, I recognize the necessity for a greater understanding of Fed's financial transactions. 


Currently, there are several proposals in Congress that address the issue of expanding the GAO audit authority of the Fed. I have personally met with some of the authors of those proposals to discuss a more transparent Federal Reserve, and I believe there is a way to achieve appropriate transparency at the Fed with regard to its financial transactions. 


Even though I have not agreed with every decision Chairman Bernanke has made at the Fed, I did support his confirmation. I have had numerous conversations with Chairman Bernanke, particularly in the past several months, and I recently visited the Fed to review the documents related to AIG. In the end, Mr. Bernanke is someone who is non-partisan, has a working knowledge of what brought about the financial crisis and the actions taken to prevent an even deeper recession, and someone who will have a sense of ownership and responsibility - not deniability - when it comes to unwinding the Fed's $2.2 trillion balance sheet in a way that doesn't do damage to our country. That is why I supported Chairman Bernanke to be the Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board during this uncertain time for the global financial system.


Thank you again for your letter. I hope you will continue to share your thoughts with me as I serve you in the United States Senate. 


Bob Corker
United States Senator

chindit13's picture

Thank you for posting this, MsCreant.  I feel better knowing we have stability and continuity in all of our misdealings, and that top people are working tirelessly to bring about our financial, and perhaps spiritual damnation.  I was worried that my own misdeeds would not land me in the eternal fires of Hell, but thanks to public servants like Sen. Corker, we can have Hell on Earth in the here and now.

I am comforted by the fact that Mr. Bernanke has a "working knowledge" of what brought about the financial crisis, which I believe is a clever euphemism for saying "he did it".  Lo that he did not have this knowledge before, or even six months after it started!

I also appreciate the Senator's keen sense of humor where he notes that Bernanke has a "sense of ownership" regarding the Fed's (so far) $2.2 trillion balance sheet.  I, as a taxpayer, have that same sense of ownership.  I believe the correct term for it is Buyer's Remorse.

percolator's picture

Someone needs to put a cork in Corker.

laughing_swordfish's picture

Not quite -

Someone needs to bust a cap in that clown

Anonymous's picture

Bob is a "Cork Soaker" - now say that with an Italian accent a few times and tell me what it sounds like ;)

Bthewee's picture


Got the same one from my POS senator. Can't wait till November. I intend to help him find the doorway out. 


"Thank you for contacting me regarding the reconfirmation of Ben Bernanke as Chairman of the Federal Reserve.  It is good to hear from you. Chairman Bernanke was reconfirmed by the Senate on January 28, 2010.  While I understand and share the disappointment and concern surrounding many of the Federal Reserve's unpopular decisions during Chairman Bernanke's tenure, I believe that failing to confirm him would have been ill-advised. I supported Chairman Bernanke to ensure continuity as Congress tries to work with the Fed to foster a robust economic recovery.

 If you would like to receive timely email alerts regarding the latest congressional actions and my weekly e-newsletter, please sign up via my website at: www.chambliss.senate.gov.  Please let me know whenever you feel I may be of assistance to you.


Saxby Chambliss - (r) Georgia 


faustian bargain's picture

It's a dirty, filth-ridden profession, politics.

Here's what I got from my "representative", who apparently has her head up Bernanke's ass. apologies for the length, but it's just so over-the-top I couldn't cut any of it:

Dear faustian bargain:

Thank you for contacting me to express your concerns about Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke.  I appreciate the time you took to write and welcome the opportunity to respond. 

On January 28, 2010, Chairman Bernanke was reconfirmed for a second, four-year term as Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.  I supported his reconfirmation, and have attached my floor statement which outlines my reasons for doing so.  While I recognize that you have concerns about transparency at the Federal Reserve, it is my belief that Chairman Bernanke should be given a chance to finish the work he has already begun.  I assure you that I will keep your thoughts in mind as I monitor the Federal Reserve going forward, and agree that much more work is necessary to stabilize the economy and create jobs. 

Once again, thank you for writing.  If you have any additional questions or concerns, please do not hesitate to contact my Washington, D.C. office at (202) 224-3841.  Best regards.


Statement of Senator Dianne Feinstein

In Support of the Reconfirmation of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke


MR. PRESIDENT, I rise today to speak in support of the reconfirmation of Ben Bernanke as Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Mr. Bernanke has been a steady hand at the Federal Reserve during the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Mr. Bernanke knows something about that: his scholarly work as an economics professor at Princeton University focused on the Great Depression. At a time when our economy is climbing out of a deep recession, I believe Mr. Bernanke's continued leadership will provide the stability that is essential to economic recovery.

Some blame Mr. Bernanke for the financial crisis and its severity.  They believe President Obama must set an example and break with the past by replacing him.

I do not agree. 

It would be a big mistake, in my view, to jettison a man whose expertise and experience have been crucial to rescuing our economy, and I believe President Obama made the right decision to keep Mr. Bernanke at the Fed. 

In my opinion, he should be reconfirmed without delay, because his term expires in three days.  Failure to do so would send the wrong message to both the American people and global financial markets, at a time of continued economic uncertainty.  It could roll back some significant progress in restoring market confidence. For instance:

Under Chairman Bernanke's leadership, the Dow Industrial Average rebounded significantly from a 12-year low of 6,547 on March 9, 2009 and reached a high on January 19th when it closed at 10,725.  This represents a gain of 4,178 points or nearly 64 percent over the course of 10 months.  

The S&P 500 has risen about 70 percent since the low in March and also reached its recent high on January 19th, closing at 1,150.23.  

Retirement accounts were valued at $8.6 trillion in the third quarter of 2007. But following the market's bottoming out in March of 2009, retirement accounts had lost $2.8 trillion (33 percent) of their peak value, according to Retirement Savings statistics from the Urban Institute in a January 2010 report.

Since then, retirement account balances have rebounded sharply. Accounts have gained roughly $1.3 trillion (23 percent), ending the third quarter at around $7.1 trillion. Although assets remain 17 percent below their peak, they are still above their 2005 value and near their 2006 value.

So, we have clearly made some progress and there are positive signs, but we still have a long way to go.  Simply put, the gains on Wall Street have not been felt by Main Street:

The national unemployment rate is 10 percent, with 15 million Americans out of work;

Small businesses are struggling, and many are going under. In my state, small business bankruptcies increased by 81 percent last year alone, and commercial corridors once teeming with business are now plagued by vacancies; 

Consumer demand remains low as American workers struggle in these tough times; and,

Retirement accounts are still down roughly $1.5 trillion from their peak.

These are terrible statistics, and there is much more work to be done to increase our national prosperity.

But last week, uncertainty caused by news that Mr. Bernanke's reconfirmation was threatened in the Senate caused the Dow Jones to fall by 552 points, with a 216 point drop on Friday alone. 

The point is clear: the situation is very volatile.  President Obama has clearly indicated that he believes Mr. Bernanke is the man for the job, and I also believe this is the case.

Let me tell you why.

First, Mr. Bernanke is an expert on the Great Depression, a scholar who understands the causes of, and remedies for, dramatic economic downturns like the one we experienced last year. There is no one better qualified to be at the helm of the Fed at this time, and he is dedicated to fulfilling its mission to restore prosperity, create jobs and keep prices stable.

Second, Mr. Bernanke played a key role in averting a much greater financial crisis. 

He took critical steps to stop the economic freefall and restore stability. He aggressively cut interest rates early on, reducing the target federal funds rate to nearly zero.  It has remained at this level since December 2008. 

Under his leadership, the Fed played a central role in quelling last year's financial turmoil. It launched joint efforts with other agencies and foreign authorities to avert a collapse of the global banking system. It ensured financial institutions adequate access to short-term funding when private funding resources dried up. 

It led the "stress tests" on large U.S. banks to ensure that these institutions had adequate capital and consumers would be confident that their bank deposits were safe. 

The Fed, under Mr. Bernanke's leadership, also created targeted lending programs that helped ease the flow of credit to many businesses.

For example, the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility has financed more than 3.4 million home loans, more than 100 million credit card accounts, 480,000 loans to small businesses and 100,000 loans to large businesses.

We are starting to see the positive results of these bold moves. 

There are undoubtedly legitimate critiques of Mr. Bernanke.  I agree that more transparency is needed at the Federal Reserve.  And, I would have liked to see more action taken to curb the abusive lending practices which have led to literally millions of foreclosures in my home state of California. 

Many gaps in regulation and oversight of our financial system still remain.  

The Administration just proposed the Volcker rules which I believe would succeed in ending the rampant speculation and excessive size of "too big to fail" institutions that led us to where we are today.  

Congress must act swiftly to regulate the financial sector more prudently, and expand authority for the Fed, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the Securities and Exchange Commission.  

We must intelligently close these gaps in regulation, not risk an economic backslide by taking out our collective frustrations on Mr. Bernanke.

Everyone is flawed, and there is more than enough blame to go around. But we must also give credit where it is due, and Mr. Bernanke successfully helped to pull this nation back from the brink.

His academic expertise on the Great Depression, coupled with his experience in facing down the greatest economic turbulence since the 1930s, makes him an unparalleled choice for leadership at the Fed right now.

USA Today, in an editorial published yesterday, gave a forceful defense of Mr. Bernanke's reconfirmation. I want to quote from it here, because I think it gives a very clear assessment of the situation:

"The question facing the nation is, who do you want in charge of this delicate task? Someone who has intimate knowledge of what needs to be done, has learned from past mistakes and has the confidence of the financial markets? Or someone new who, in order to win congressional confirmation, will be hamstrung by promises not to take difficult-but-necessary steps, such as bumping up interest rates to keep inflation in check?

Bernanke deserves considerable credit for helping stave off economic collapse. For that reason, he also deserves another term as chairman."

Mr. President, I couldn't agree more. 

Mr. Bernanke deserves a chance to finish the enormous and historic task at hand. He has done well thus far, and I intend to support him for a second term as Chairman of the Fed. 

Thank you, Mr. President.  I yield the floor and ask unanimous consent that my remarks appear in the appropriate place in the Congressional Record

Sincerely yours,
 Dianne Feinstein
         United States Senator

Anonymous's picture

My goodness!

That's the same letter I get from my Senator.

What are the chances?

Anonymous's picture

My goodness!

That's the same letter I get from my Senator.

What are the chances?

Anonymous's picture

What's yourpoint? It's meaningless information. The market continues to yawn at your drivel. Day in and day out from Greece, to Spain, to total U.S debt....the whole discussion is old now

bingaling's picture

The point is "he is telling the truth in the face of lies ." Yes the discussion is old and the markets ignore it ,like they ignored the housing crisis for over a year before the shtf .Prime example would be Cramer pimping stocks on CNBC while the market crashed with his buy and hold mantra . The point will come where this information will become front and center and those who were paying attention will profit from it while those listening to "Cramer" will get their asses handed to them .....again.



litoralkey's picture

The very large investment groups can not time the market bottom, they are loading up now on prime properties and portfolios and with time horizons longer than one credit cycle they are confident they will get the return on their capital sought.

That's what Moody's REAL CPPI is telling us.

The good news... These large groups do not see the United States falling apart like Havana or Detroit.

Also, the defaults are calculated by the nominal origination value or the depreciated book value from 1Q, 2Q or 3Q of 2009 for far too many... $46 billion in CMBS delinquencies in January is only say $20 billion in losses.

jeff montanye's picture

timing market bottoms has been likened to catching a knife on the way to the floor.  that a credit cycle that began no later than 1982 (and, arguably, 1942) is again "buyable" after two and a half years of deleveraging, the latter year and half in an environment of quasi non-repeatable fiscal/monetary/accounting "stimulus" is not, imo, likely.  time horizons longer than one credit cycle are longer than most mortals and many (real estate) corporations.

johngaltfla's picture

Let's see....the Tampa area has a 10.5% retail space vacancy rate as of December 2009. Dillard's is pretty much abandoning our market, Sears is rumored to be closing stores here, and we're watching the restaurant industry flee in droves to file Chapter 7. That pretty much leaves all of the condos which "had" a decent January if they can close all of the contracts of course that didn't even put a dent in our 4 year supply of completed and incomplete units. I guess when the 10 year supply of vacant prepared lots are soaked up we can say "all clear" and assume the CMBS market for our region is good to go.

2037 sounds about right.

Anonymous's picture

dailyjobcuts.com reflect your thoughts Tampa. ZH & dailyjobcuts.com = My only source of the REAL news !!

BlackBeard's picture

Booyah baby, ???????!!!! get used to the sushi!

jmc8888's picture

Indeed it's starting to look a bit parabolic.  That's pretty scary considering where the numbers already sit, and what that combination means to our banks, especially small/regionals and credit unions.

bingaling's picture

I think congress gave the go ahead for regionals to window dress this on their books so as not to reveal TRUE losses on their real estate portfolios .

Froggy's picture

The price increases are real, BUT... they are the result of the banks/servicers releasing assets in dribs and drabs (facilitated by UST mark to whatever guidelines) causing pent up capital to chase and bid them up.  Eventually the loss of cashflow is going to catch up to the credit enhancement slop room in the bond structure and the levy will break.  Double dip anyone?

miker's picture

Who the hell would even want the Fed Chair position.  Even if they really wanted to vote Bernake out (and many did); the practical issue of replacing him is glaring. 

BoyChristmas's picture

Just wait until rates rise, every floating rate deal will blow up and the problems will continue. One thing to keep in mind is the speedy growth of the % delinquent balance is partially driven by the lack of new issuance and swath of maturities.


More importantly, the TARP COP appropriately pointed out that local and regional bank loans are in far worse situation. Busted condos, half finished construction loans, massive mixed use projects have absolutely no source of debt. Its just one long slow wealth transfer. The real winners from the CRE bust? Just check to see who wins the FDIC bulk sale bids.


jschurchin's picture

Could you imagine what would happen if "mark to market" was still in effect and the banks had to recognize these losses?

Instead we "pretend" all is well, and hope beyond hope that Superman will show up and save the day.

Oh well. Hey Tyler, thanks for the site. It really is great, I visit daily but rarely post. Guess it goes back to the addage, "Better for people to think your an Idiot, then to open your mouth and remove all doubt"

Thanks again,  John

Anonymous's picture

Hello. these programs were not designed to work in the first place. they were designed to max bank profits and bonus until someting real had to be done. then when the second crisis arrived real action would drive givernment spending up so high as to cause a"greek" style outcome and have to slash programs. The wealth transfer shceme continues unabated.

Postal's picture

You guys are too scary. I'm gonna go watch CNBC for a bit. I need a little cheering up. O.O

RockyRacoon's picture

Ha!  CNBC was almost tolerable last week.  Kudlow was on a week-long vacation to Italy.  What a relief.  Maybe they should extend his "vacation" to perpetuity!


Anonymous's picture


What Moody's has said previously is that after dipping by 48% from the ridiculously puffed - up October 2007 peak, commercial real estate prices will come up and settle at a point around 35% down from that peak.

They are coming up because lots of the money on the sidelines have realized that prices were way too low and that their are real bargains out there.

Delinquencies on CRE loans that are in CMBS are still climbing but the danger there is nowhere near as acute as those loans still on the books of local and regional banks.

CMBS are overweighted with ten year poorly underwritten loans that will mature in 2014-2017 whereas many more bank held loans are coming due much sooner. An improvement in the economy by 2013 or so will allow CMBS balloons to be refinanced.

Anonymous's picture

lol @ 'greek style',
you can say that again.
they are the first of the bohicans
(bend over here it comes again).

BoyChristmas's picture

I don't think CMBS balloons in 2012-2014 will be refinanced all that easily. They are still over-leveraged even if values rebound somewhat and lending terms will still be more conservative 2-4 years out, not like today's terms but still conservative compared to 06-08. 


The REIT CMBS borrowers may have enough cash to fill the equity gaps, but the yeoman borrowers will not, and will either get A-B loan splits with modifications or scrape all excess cash flow until they lose the property near maturity/can't debt service because tenants leave from lack of capital expenditures (not enough cash flow).

The mod v. foreclosure outcome is usually an outcome of the attitude borrowers have with the servicers; if they go in guns blazing they can kiss their property goodbye, if they go in sensibly (hard to do when you've lost all your money) or hire an advisor then they might get the modification or DPO.


Either way its a slow draining deleveraging process...2-4 years from now the problems won't be solved, they are only mitigated and delayed. The same thing is happening with the Banks bogged with CRE loans. They are hoarding revenue and taking advantage of the low funding costs for as long as they can hoping to re-establish their reserves for charge-offs and writedowns, as well as tangible equity. They won't lend to re-establish a new basis and are hoping to get back to normalcy by taking advantage of the arbitrage, but it won't last forever. Rates will go up too soon causing floating rate borrowers to default, and banks their funding costs will eat away at the hoarded cash especially with their minimal revenue sources crippled.


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