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January Consumer Confidence Comes In At 72.8; Below Expectations Of 74.0
University of Michigan January Consumer Confidence came in at 72.8, below expectations of 74, which would have been an increase from unrevised December of 73.4. Instead December was revised down to 72.5 to make January seem like an improvement. The Sentiment number was driven higher by better than expected Current Conditions, which came in at 81 (prelim), up from 78 in December, while Expectations dropped to 67.5 from a revised 68.9 in December (69.7 unrevised). Inflation expectations for 1 Year increased from a final December read of 2.5 to 2.8 (which incidentally is the expectation for the 5 Year inflation expectations as well).
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"little changed" per cnbc dot com
had it come in at 74 it would have been "surging confidence exceeds expectations."
What were the results for the Consumer Capacity survey? What? We don't have a consumer capacity survey? Meh.
anyone care to give odds on the markets ending positive for the day.
and/or speculate on what fat fingers cause the afternoon bounce?
FED traders have the morning off, they have been working so hard, uncle Ben gave them the morning off, but don't worry, they will be in later in the day.
seems like its just starting to make its move now at 3:19, so it only ends the day down 30 points, which dosn't look so bad
How's that short long bonds trade working?
Rates are going to the moon! (if the moon is 3.5%)
-BigBagHolder
Good morning you stupid bulls.
How do you revise down a survey? How much confidence can you have in the University of Michigan if they can't add and then divide? Go BIG TEN! SI
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1/15/10
1054EST
ESH10:
As I mentioned before not reaching 1130.75 is an immediate reversal back up to new highs
Above 1134.25 turns the door handle to open the door for the reversal
9:42EST
ESH10:
last weeks FR (Federal Reserve) intervention on Friday (1/8/10)
after the Bad Non farm news
and their blatant intervention Sunday night
altered the charts dramatically
Last Friday at 1139.50 and we should of dropped minimum 13.25 points and maximum 15.50 points instead we closed the day up at 1141.75. These are internal range cycles (like Mother Nature and the four seasons) but the Sunday night (blatantly) intervention changed everything. It’s completely of place in regards to the chart range cycles and all linear geometrical structures from 10/25/09.
The best way to look at the charts is to delete the Sunday night intervention
As such the charts are geometrically perfect.
Never the less this decline will reach 1106.00 on this leg down (actually we go lower, to 1071.00. but at 1106.00 there will be a profoundly powerful bounce back up, which in no way shape or form should exceed the Friday high (before the intervention) at 1139.50
But the key is the Federal Reserve.
In my estimate the Federal Reserve they are currently are long 1,231,295 contracts on the March contract, their average price is 1104.00.
So the question at hand is;
What do they do at 1106.00
My guess would be They will buy in order to prop the market back up.
This is profoundly important, because if they buy they are increasing their exposure and possibly increasing the downside potential.
If I were them and we clearly trade below 1104.00, for example 1050.00 or 950.00 (before the March contract expires) I would just let the contracts expire with a hefty loss, as opposed to closing a portion or all of the contracts. Closing (covering their position will only add fuel to the fire to the downside, which in turn literally obliterates they hefty position in the bond market, the loss on the bond market would well exceed the loss on the current March ES contract.
Yesterday, last night and today they have not bought.
Immediate term:
Expect a bounce at 1130.50
I recommend all shorts to take profit at 1130.75
and reload on the bounce back up to 1139.25 and maybe to 1142.25
MasterCheTrading@Gmail.com
1/15/10
1054EST
ESH10:
As I mentioned before not reaching 1130.75 is an immediate reversal back up to new highs
Above 1134.25 turns the door handle to open the door for the reversal
9:42EST
ESH10:
last weeks FR (Federal Reserve) intervention on Friday (1/8/10)
after the Bad Non farm news
and their blatant intervention Sunday night
altered the charts dramatically
Last Friday at 1139.50 and we should of dropped minimum 13.25 points and maximum 15.50 points instead we closed the day up at 1141.75. These are internal range cycles (like Mother Nature and the four seasons) but the Sunday night (blatantly) intervention changed everything. It’s completely of place in regards to the chart range cycles and all linear geometrical structures from 10/25/09.
The best way to look at the charts is to delete the Sunday night intervention
As such the charts are geometrically perfect.
Never the less this decline will reach 1106.00 on this leg down (actually we go lower, to 1071.00. but at 1106.00 there will be a profoundly powerful bounce back up, which in no way shape or form should exceed the Friday high (before the intervention) at 1139.50
But the key is the Federal Reserve.
In my estimate the Federal Reserve they are currently are long 1,231,295 contracts on the March contract, their average price is 1104.00.
So the question at hand is;
What do they do at 1106.00
My guess would be They will buy in order to prop the market back up.
This is profoundly important, because if they buy they are increasing their exposure and possibly increasing the downside potential.
If I were them and we clearly trade below 1104.00, for example 1050.00 or 950.00 (before the March contract expires) I would just let the contracts expire with a hefty loss, as opposed to closing a portion or all of the contracts. Closing (covering their position will only add fuel to the fire to the downside, which in turn literally obliterates they hefty position in the bond market, the loss on the bond market would well exceed the loss on the current March ES contract.
Yesterday, last night and today they have not bought.
Immediate term:
Expect a bounce at 1130.50
I recommend all shorts to take profit at 1130.75
and reload on the bounce back up to 1139.25 and maybe to 1142.25
MasterCheTrading@Gmail.com
2:25 pump job.....here we come.
Get your bathing suits on, we're going for a double-dip:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/double-dip-rec...
Glad to see that U Mich is on board with the Administation's "data modification" program.
I am confident. Confident we are facing significant stagflation.
I'm confident the housing market will get worse.......
JPMorgan on Modifications
Most completed modifications are bank programs, and not HAMP. It is worth remembering that HAMP is just a subset of all the programs
Dimon apparently isn't aware of any momentum for a macro principal reduction program
http://tinyurl.com/ya92rx5
Gov't mortgage plan aids 7 percent of borrowers
Obama mortgage plan provides assistance to 7 percent of borrowers who signed up last year
http://tinyurl.com/yk2n3qb
What a country! We beat expectations on everything, even if we have to lower the bar.
I'm going to lunch now, and it's going to be the best meal I ever had! If it isn't I will just imagine that I was expecting a shit sandwich and the food will taste amazing!
From now I only punctuate with exclamation points! USA!USA!
+1 LOL
Wall Street Thinks You Are a Jealous Little Malcontent
The recurrent theme on Bloomberg television today, from the guests that are brought on and questioned by the news anchors, is that the public wants to limit the bonuses paid by Wall Street because they are just jealous and stupid.
I would not call it jealousy or a need for retribution. I would say that the people as a whole have a sense of right and wrong, a sense of fairness and balance, a sense of outrage that is being held in check by patience, but wishes to see justice done for themselves and their children, because it is the right thing to do.
http://tinyurl.com/ycggyfp
Have confidence someone is always being screwed somewhere...
Big Banks Accused of Short Sale Fraud
Just as regulators, lawmakers and all forms of financial oversight boards are talking about new regulations to guard against mortgage fraud and another mortgage meltdown, there appears to be yet a new mortgage fraud out there today, allegedly perpetuated by agents of, yes, the big banks.
http://tinyurl.com/ydfg8yx