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Jeff Gundlach's December Presentation

Tyler Durden's picture





 

... in which a familiar chart appears on page 8. We are always glad to be of use when it comes to matters such as, oh, I don't know, the truth (especially of the variety that is non-grata on CNBC.)

12-14-10 Independence Day

Courtesy of DoubleLine

 


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Fri, 12/17/2010 - 14:23 | Link to Comment spekulatn
spekulatn's picture

Well done, TD.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 14:26 | Link to Comment traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Chart Porn Bitchez!

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 14:34 | Link to Comment Comrade de Chaos
Comrade de Chaos's picture

"North Korea says to strike South if drill goes ahead" - AP

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 14:34 | Link to Comment umop episdn
umop episdn's picture

It's on page nine now. Maybe someone updated it?

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 14:35 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Gold just made a U-Turn...

That means stocks are headed higher....

 

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 16:15 | Link to Comment downrodeo
downrodeo's picture

haha, that has got to mean something!

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 14:42 | Link to Comment tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

Pages 61,62,63  represent what we can expect moving forward, pretty much a " total unmidigated disaster". Check out these default rates and think about where this will end as these continue to spike? The shadow inventory is already so large they wont be able to trickle it out any longer unless they want a 24 month supply of homes on the market. This segment represents the real wealth of America and it is about to lose even more. No matter how green they paint it these charts are real and downright scary.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 17:16 | Link to Comment Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

It's way worse than you think.  Demographics move markets.  Right now 70,000,000 baby boomers think they can unload their million dollar McMansions in the suburbs and safely retire to Florida.  Who is going to buy these homes?  X-geners?  No.  The next generation of likely buyers don't want lawns and long commutes.  They want iPods and fancy urban dining in artsy downtown villages.  My guess is that in five-ten years million dollar suburban homes will be going for $80K.   Yuppie homes are toast.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 21:12 | Link to Comment Golden monkey
Golden monkey's picture

Toasted by rioters or by uncle Ben? Take your pick.

(Or maybe the house will be OK and the owner will be toasted by tax increase).

Sheeple need to be fleeced, from the right or from the left.

Sat, 12/18/2010 - 11:58 | Link to Comment buzzard beak
buzzard beak's picture

Hey bro, you're exaggerating the trend, but you don't deserve to be junked.

Those "million dollar McMansions" are already impossible to sell at the prices their owners think they're worth. Most of those on the market have been sitting unsold for at least 3 months, many more than a year. When they're foreclosed, the banks will either sit on them to conceal the loss, or dump them at around 40% below the comps' average asking price. I am talking about the better regional markets.

On the other hand it is precisely the upper end of the market, often the most boring and staid elite burbs, that is holding its value best. There are buyers, expecting deep cuts from asking price and having their pick of plenty, but there are buyers. These buyers are nearly all 45+.

As for the X-geners they are a mixed and much more economically vulnerable bunch. The gentrification of urban black, immigrant and poor white neighborhoods that they have been driving either came to a screeching halt or went into reverse the last couple years. They are dumping those lovely Brooklyn townhouses that are just a bit too far deep in the hood to be worth investing in now, or losing them to foreclosure, and running back home to mommy and daddy in the burbs with their tails under their asses. And of course most X geners never left the burbs and never will - a lot of them like it there, or tolerate it because they don't have the nads to move into the gritty city.

Over a longer time frame though the trend is unmistakable. The poor are getting pushed out of the inherently valuable brick and stone urban neighborhoods and into the degenerating clapboard suburbs. The suburban white middle class are watching their school demographics change dramatically and wondering what that whole white flight thing was for.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 17:24 | Link to Comment Bam_Man
Bam_Man's picture

 This segment represents the real wealth of America

No, I disagree. For the overwhelming vast majority it was never real wealth, it was phantom wealth. The kind that "exists" temporarily, on the margin only during the mania phase of a credit-induced bubble.

The real wealth was skimmed by those employed in the FIRE sector during the bubble.

 

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 14:45 | Link to Comment RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

This stock showed the most relative strength during the recent gold smackdown.

I bought it 10 min. ago....

We'll see what happens.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 14:51 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

  nice company....a little known fact about IAG, they are one of the worlds largest producers of Niobium. The stock has been a bit of dog of late, troubles with one of their mines. I see relative outperformance over the next little while.

Another one to look at is GRS....

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 15:26 | Link to Comment goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

Obviously didn't run screens on CGR (78 rsi) or THM (64 rsi) far stronger than IAG (55 rsi)

 

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 16:59 | Link to Comment buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

also a seller of dog food and chumpium.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 15:14 | Link to Comment traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

A real comment about an opinion on a stock with an action taken for the future. Bravo!

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 15:20 | Link to Comment Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

Hey Robo,

post a chart of FRG

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 14:58 | Link to Comment shushup
shushup's picture

Great.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 15:22 | Link to Comment Edmond Dantes
Edmond Dantes's picture

Awesome.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 15:30 | Link to Comment goldmiddelfinger
goldmiddelfinger's picture

I am partial to pages 10 and 12. "Unsustainable budget outlays" and "US Govt outlays vs receipts"

 

 

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 15:39 | Link to Comment AnarchoCapitalist
AnarchoCapitalist's picture

Love page 58.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 16:02 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

What's truly depressing are the charts on debt & unemployment (weeks not worked, labor participation rates, and % change in unemployment compared to past downturns).

Yes, Amerika (I write 'Amerika' not b/c I'm unpatriotic, but because I live in a warped system where 'TBTF' banks and Wall Street Firms of all kinds are allowed to privatize profits while socializing losses - onto taxpayers), this is a structural economic crisis you are undergoing, not a cyclical one that you've been conditioned to experience, and there will be no 'V' for you).

Anyone who can't spot the critical differences in the structure of the U.S. economy now vs. the 1980's, 1970's, or at anytime since the 1930's is just plain ignorant of the fundamental cracks now afflicting the foundation of the U.S. economic structure.

Sat, 12/18/2010 - 00:23 | Link to Comment Golden monkey
Golden monkey's picture

Warning to the crew : corruption reached unsustainable levels.

Desesperate monkeys attacks  on silver price? Give to that PMs dealers your toilet paper.

Emergency : do rolls with it (it burns better, longer, warmer, sucker)
Fri, 12/17/2010 - 17:56 | Link to Comment gwar5
gwar5's picture

Good stuff. Charts don't lie.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 18:11 | Link to Comment RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

That depends on the question you ask of the chart.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 19:10 | Link to Comment Windemup
Windemup's picture

Time to short Real Estate. Use wide stops and hold for the long haul.

Fri, 12/17/2010 - 21:03 | Link to Comment TheGoodDoctor
TheGoodDoctor's picture

Slide 16 was interesting.

Sat, 12/18/2010 - 00:44 | Link to Comment revenue_anticip...
revenue_anticipation_believer's picture

those charts that DO extend into 1929, including therefore the ACTUAL great depression, CAN see clearly that WE in 2010 have long way down, STILL, to equal what happened THEN

For the USA it took the stimulus of 4 years of 3 shift 24/day work building Liberty/Victory ships 2700 of them 10,000 tonnes each, of building LARGE and/or POWERFUL 5000Hp AIRCRAFT, some 40,000, of building medium sized general purpose tanks, and other military vehicles,

that was 1941-1945, with 1943 so thoroughly intense that ALL pennies minted were made of steel,

and that 1942-1945 MOST of the USA coinage silver in  EXISTENCE was melted-down and loaned to the Manhattan Project,to make the highest possible conductive wiring/coils  for the Lawrence Calutron magnetic-ion uranium separtion of u235-u238...to make the Hiroshima 'uranium bomb'...

by 1946, the gas-diffusion plant took over making u235...some near 99% of 'employables' were employed and the goveernment contracts INCLUDED free employee transport across country, as needed to get the Manhattan Project, the Liberty/Victory ship building enough workers...who by the way were near 40% women, due to labor shortage...

andMOST AMAZING OF ALL, making sure that virtually NONE of this STUFF was ALLOWED to 100% flood the USA economy for years and years, thereby stopping all POST WAR commercial production..

STUFF was left 'overseas'

ships were essentially given to the Japanese whose commercial dry-goods shipping fleet and 'oilers' were sunk 99% by Sept 1945,

and by 'storing thousands of B29'S arid-desert open storage THOUSANDS that were eventually melted down to make 'beer cans'...

the 84 PAGE DOCUMENT HERE, actually paints a VERY VERY OPTIMISTIC PICTURE,

that the World is not even close to ending, economically....

What we do have HERE a classic 70 year K cycle, of the type Creative Destruction - Schumpter...

yes, Mellonesque LIQUIDATION that is necessary..

 

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