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Jim Cramer: Called This One Too!!!
Jim Cramer is at it again. This time he is calling for a top in US Treasury Bonds. Mama mia, I am heading for the hills. Cramer is calling for higher interest rates, therefore it must be so.
In this video clip taken from "Mad Money" on September 18, 2009, Cramer gives his reasons, and essentially, his premise is built around an economic recovery, higher growth, and inflation. He does acknowledge the roll that the Treasury and Fed may play as they continue to issue supply and expand the debt. There is no mention of the feedback that higher interest rates may have on an economic recovery or inflation.
As usual Cramer is almost certain in his convictions, but I have to tell you, I feel there is very little rigor to the analysis. He states all the usual suspects as to why we should see higher rates, but truth be told and as we have been writing about for the last 6 weeks, interest rates are heading lower while the stock market, which we are told is forecasting a better economy, is heading higher. This is a very noticeable divergence.
I would agree with Cramer that we are on the cusp of a secular trend change that should lead to increasing yield pressures, but I don't see that happening in the near term.
Lastly, in light of my recent look at investor sentiment in the bond market, I guess I should be cheering. Now everyone knows that Treasury bonds are topping (i.e., yields bottoming) because Cramer said so. Cramer calling for a top or a bottom is a frequent occurrence. I suspect if you make enough of them than you will get a few right.
*****
Cramers Never Been Convicted ?
And here I was thinking it was Cramer Never Been Correct....thanks for setting me straight.
Oh captain comedian, my captain!
Im with Jdun, but hope Bernanke can print money fast enough to stop my home value from going down to $40,000.
Another breakout in bonds.
And corporates made yet another new high.
And high yield not doing so shabby either.
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The fed in theory does not price interest rates on treasuries. It is supposed to be the market. they have cntrol over the discount window, so you can't say anything about the fed raising rates and what hapens in treasuries (in theory)
the problem with deteermining this market is Big Ben in the mix with quant easing. when that runs out we shall have a better idea. It is hard to understand how one can get buying in treasuries with a falling currency and attract interest. something is very wrong in this equation. I have a huge bond portfolio of Munis that I bought when things collapsed, I see these a fairly toppy, so I am buying some tbt as a hedge. the market is priced at early may levels )yields) with is the same as the baltic dry at this point, so I consider these to be two real indicators of an overvalued stock market. Agriculture commmodites are priced a bit below this level and haven't been selling off as much, so I'd think that also confirms correct pricing structure.
But I shall say that as per rsi cross over that I use long treasuries gave a buy signal towards the close a day or two ago. it is still a buy signal, but the hourly look like it may turn and it is at a pivot point.
Cramer is desperate. The Fed had a chance to raise interest rate this week and what happened? No interest rate hike for the foreseeable future.
The elephant is in the room and this moron doesn't see it. We are already in a deflationary spiral. It not an opinion it is a fact.
I've been in SRS since a couple weeks ago and was getting nervous, but when Cramer gave his endorsement of IYR (which trades inverse to SRS) I was finally able to sleep better at night. That man brings the speculative froth and usually brings in short term tops as the street picks the pockets of those who follow him. I was also in STP for the last year and around $20 he gave his endorsement, which made me a little nervous but I believe in my thesis. I wish I sold on his call because it proceeded to drop to $12.80. Moral of the story, when Cramer endorses something you own and it has been doing well, just take your profits and if you want buy back later. When cramer endorses something your against when it has already had a huge run you should just take a deep breath, dont sell that day and relax because the guy is a curse.
Jimbo said tonight to get long those Gold coins as well.....
The Deflation camp must be thanking their lucky stars :-)
T.G.I.Bank.Failure.F!!!
Is this guy really worth the effort? If you have an IQ higher than the numerical value of your appendages then it is obvious he is a tool and belongs with the rest of them in the shed.
Joker in the Pack!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
cramer also called the end to the real estate
crisis on 6/30/2009....
cramer couldn't call his mother without operator
assistance so we can pass over this as another
one of his manic-manic moments...