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Jim O'Neill Is Angry At Reality For Destroying His Kool-Aid Inspired Delirium

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The latest from Goldman's Jim O'Neill

A MESSY START TO JULY.

Just when it seemed things were shifting back to the optimists’ camp, Friday’s news about the state of the world threw another spanner in the works. In addition to a very disappointing US nonfarm payrolls report, Italy came into the spotlight in the European crisis. Subsequently, the earliest of the June data releases from China look somewhat of a mixed bunch too. China’s CPI came in at the high end of expectations and there was a notable rise in the trade surplus due to soft imports.

On Friday morning in my customary weekly voicemail, I said that of the four apparent marginal drivers of the world economic “mood”, three appeared to have taken a turn for the better: the post-tsunami recovery in Japan, signs of an end to the soft patch in the US, and growing hopes that China’s soft landing has arrived. All of this was reflected in our July Monthly Insights where we outlined our expectations for the second half of the year. Sometimes a day seems like a very long period of time. At least the one area that seemed a continued problem, the European Monetary Union (EMU), stayed the same!

JAPAN’S RECOVERY.

Japan’s post-tsunami recovery appears to be firmly on track. The quarterly BOJ Tankan survey released last week was suggestive of a V-shaped recovery, consistent with almost all recent data. This week, the BOJ will probably raise their assessment of the cyclical economic outlook. Whether any of this will translate into anything more substantial beyond this autumn remains highly uncertain. There remains quite a debate between two groups of observers. The majority continue to see a poor future for Japan given its major structural challenges. The minority (adjusting for Japan’s weak demographics) see a country that can sustain, and perhaps even grow, high living standards and that may offer some lessons to guide the US and parts of Europe.

US AND ITS IRRITATING MONTHLY PAYROLLS.

I lose count of the number of times I’ve experienced nonfarm payroll Fridays like the one we just had. I vaguely remember back in the late 1980s that a specialist US bond trader lost a significant amount of its capital betting on a payroll number that turned out to be very different than they expected. I also recall that some months later, subsequent revisions showed that the actual number had been closer to the trader’s original expectation. That lesson taught me to never get too carried away about the whole topic of nonfarm payroll Fridays. In the past couple of years, we have supposedly had the benefit of the ADP report the day before the payrolls announcement. This report, it seems, was intended to help everyone and take the heat out of the Friday release. Well, yet again, that didn’t work last week. The ADP number doubled expectations, but payrolls were significantly disappointing. I was asked about my own expectations for the payrolls release a few minutes beforehand, and I answered that it would be significantly different from expectations. I didn’t necessarily mean in the way it appeared! Coming at the end of a week which started with a much better-than-expected ISM manufacturing report, it has left the debate about the US recovery wide open. Is the US stuck with a very weak 1-2 pct recovery for some time, or is the payroll data inaccurate once again? Or, is the US stuck with a strong profit-growth, but weak job-growth, recovery?

I had been pretty strongly in the camp that the US recovery had only temporarily stalled during the past couple of months, and that higher food and energy prices, along with the disruption of the Japanese supply chain, were responsible for the softer data. But if Japan is witnessing a bounce back, it should be seen elsewhere too. I can’t see DATA. China released their monthly consumer and producer price inflation readings this weekend. Both figures were at the high end of expectations, with CPI coming in at 6.4 pct. High food prices appear to be responsible for this figure. According to Yu Song, the GS Beijing-based economist, there are signs of moderation in the non-food elements. The debate will now focus on whether the June reading is the peak or not, and it will be fascinating to hear the local policymakers’ tone this coming week. The PBOC Governor Zhou highlighted base effects as responsible for such a high CPI figure. The coming reversal of such forces is why so many expect CPI to ease in the coming months towards 4.5 pct.

In my judgement, the near-term trend of Chinese CPI is extremely important for the second half of the year. It will determine the stance of PBOC policymakers as to whether they can stop tightening. Given that the challenges facing the US, Europe and others will likely impact Chinese exports, lessening inflation would allow domestic demand to help the Chinese economy adjust to the post-crisis world. At the same time, it would help the rest of us through increased

Chinese imports.

On this score, the June trade data is not a great reading for the optimists, unless you conclude that the soft import data is temporary. The monthly trade surplus bounced back to $22.3bn in June, a surplus I think higher than the rest of the year to date. Both exports and imports were softer than expected, with imports especially disappointing. The release will muddy the waters also in terms of politics, as it will prove convenient to those who like to blame China for all their problems. According to the Reuters report of the data, the rolling 12-month surplus is $173.4bn, which is less than 3 pct of GDP. This figure is still supportive of those of us who believe the trade balance has entered a new, lower era. It will be the headline that garners the attention though.

In coming days there will be further important China data releases including the latest monetary data.

EMU PROBLEMS GETTING BIGGER.

While many took heart from the Greek parliament’s decision to support further austerity measures a couple of weeks ago, in my mind, last week was more concerning. The big downgrade of Portugal demonstrated that this crisis stretches way beyond just Greece. While I can’t get excited about the downgrade itself, the realization that it is not just Greece that is challenged might have been a bit forgotten. In this light, and of much greater concern, was the troubling week (especially Friday) that Italian bond spreads experienced. With worries about the forthcoming bank stress tests, and doubts about the cohesiveness of Italian fiscal tightening measures, Italy has entered the spotlight for the first time since this crisis erupted early in 2010. It is possible that last week’s market pricing was actually a by-product of investors selling Italy to hedge their exposures in other troubled EMU countries. Even if this is true, a few more days like Friday and the whole EMU crisis will have risen to a more troubling level. I have found it reasonably easy to not get too worried about the debt dynamics of Ireland, Portugal or Greece?but Italy is a different topic. While Brazil overtook Italy to become the world’s seventh largest economy last year, Italy is still a big economy. At 120 pct of GDP, Italy’s debt is equivalent to around 25 pct of the Euro Area GDP. Neither the Euro Area nor possibly the rest of the world can afford a full-blown Italian bond market crisis.

In addition to the modest specifics of Italy that seemed to be worrying markets last week, the broader concern is that we are still waiting for some sort of true leadership out of Europe to help us get ahead of this crisis. With the onset of the long summer holidays, however, it may not be forthcoming. I hope this is not the case.

Ah well, at least the English Premier League is back in another 5 weeks.

Jim O’Neill

Chairman, Goldman Sachs Asset Management

 

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Mon, 07/11/2011 - 09:49 | 1443418 lettuce
lettuce's picture

but jim...barcelona beat manchester utd to win this year...

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 09:50 | 1443422 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Maybe a more powerful 'fortified' Kool Aid is whats required?

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 09:51 | 1443425 Dimeboy
Dimeboy's picture

The Squid is after Italy's gold....

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 09:56 | 1443438 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

doubt it really belongs to Italy... More like, the vatican...

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 10:41 | 1443651 Dimeboy
Dimeboy's picture

The Vatican's gold is private / not published as sovereign holdings. It was estimated at several hundred billion dollars ten yeas ago, and is the smallest portion of the Holy Sees' wealth.  Way bigger reserves than Italy's.

http://www.arcticbeacon.com/articles/16-Mar-2006.html

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 09:53 | 1443426 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Helter Skelter

Ringo Starr: "I've got blisters on my fingers."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helter_Skelter_(song)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helter_Skelter

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 09:54 | 1443435 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Far better:

Ringo Starr: “Everything government touches turns to crap

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 10:01 | 1443449 lettuce
lettuce's picture

Kenneth Starr: "We must combat misinformation that is being spread"

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 11:07 | 1443831 Libertarian777
Libertarian777's picture

More like " we must combat the truth being spread"

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 15:25 | 1444981 MisterMousePotato
MisterMousePotato's picture

Even better:

Ringo Starr: "If you wanna sing the blues, you gotta pay your dues, and you know it don't come easy."

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 11:04 | 1443798 cramers_tears
cramers_tears's picture

Jim O'Neill should be forced to listen to this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9kUL6fE4RE

He really does have blisters on his fingers.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 09:56 | 1443428 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Long live the [NWO] Euro ponzi bailouts O'neill..

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 09:53 | 1443433 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

Well the Premier League starts in 5 weeks!

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 09:54 | 1443434 mynhair
mynhair's picture

Hey Jim!  Try to get out of your mom's basement once in a while.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 09:58 | 1443442 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

If only my mom's trailer had a basement, I' think about going to live there too...

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 13:28 | 1444488 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

You could settle under the front porch with the dogs.  Just a suggestion.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 10:53 | 1443719 jomama
jomama's picture

lmao

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 09:55 | 1443437 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

 

Japan imposes energy limits amid power crunch

 

Major power users ordered to cut consumption by 15%

 

Bullish! 

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2011/07/01/japan-power-conservation.html/p>

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 09:56 | 1443439 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

The only thing that's changed: greater acceptance of the predicament we're in. That's not the same as things getting better

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 13:30 | 1444495 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Don't you know that acceptance is the key to serenity?

Things are getting worse faster than we are willing to lower our standards.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 09:58 | 1443443 gjp
gjp's picture

And tech and retail US stocks are quickly cutting their losses.  LNKD is sailing higher, well over $100 now (haven't seen ZH post in a while on this).  The casino will not give up until it is shot in the head.  And even then it may continue like a chicken with it's head cut off ... maybe that's what's going on now?

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 10:01 | 1443451 earnulf
earnulf's picture

Economists seem to be in their own reality, which tends to differ from that of the masses.    They need to learn how to look at ALL the numbers, not just the ones that fit their assumptions of how things should be.

Just how big does that brick have to be that we hit them upside the head with anyway?     Are we talking ACME here?

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 10:09 | 1443476 Vergeltung
Vergeltung's picture

seems like these guys are always looking for their happy place.....

 

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 11:53 | 1443650 oddjob
oddjob's picture

is that why Jim sits sideways to the camera in every interview he does as if he is going to run out of the room?

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 10:33 | 1443608 Johnny Lawrence
Johnny Lawrence's picture

Oh jeesh...now it's Japan with the "V-shaped recovery", just like what everyone was saying about the US.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 10:48 | 1443692 snowball777
snowball777's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h5Q2jrfHJKg

A BRIC baby...that's what I'm gonna throw upside your head...

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 11:01 | 1443780 williambanzai7
williambanzai7's picture

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 11:32 | 1444010 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Jim O'Neill, just one more soldier in the family, one more worker bee for the hive, earning his big salary and bonus every day.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 11:37 | 1444034 Salah
Salah's picture

Tyler....you are sooooo good!

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 13:47 | 1444573 indya
indya's picture

Japan is f****d. Toyota launched a sub-standard hatchback after long in India and ppl are not buying..(I mean not eating their bullshit).God bless them.

Mon, 07/11/2011 - 15:08 | 1444909 jmc8888
jmc8888's picture

Jim O'Neill laments the lack of fascist leadership to throw various eurpoeans under the bus to pay off fraud.

Gee Jim, can you say you're pro-dictatorship any louder?

Glass-Steagall

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