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Jim O'Neill Is Back To Pitching The Great Consumption Potential Of Turkey, Bangladesh And Iran... Next Up - Uranus
There are permabulls, and then there is Jim O'Neill. The Man U fan explains why, after it has been consistently discredited, people do not believe in decoupling: "because they are not prepared to get it." And just because people are really stupid and just don't get it, O'Neill pitches Indonesia, Turkey, Nigeria and Bangladesh, and, oh yes, Iran, as the "Next 11" once again. Because, gasp, 9 of them are up year to date. We wonder if Jim recalls what happened to the Russian market in 2008. Somehow we think his selective memory may have shut that one out. Also, it turns out Jim O'Neill does not appreciate fan mail bourne out of "weird blog site" commentary: "I received quite a few incoming hostile emails in response, and references to some weird blog sites who apparently opine on my views." Oops.
The latest Kool Aid blast Jim
Back To School.............. September 3, 2010
Labour Day weekend ( already you say), 2/3 of the year over, and next week, everyone will be back with enthusiasm , drive and passion for the wonderful opportunities that lie ahead !……………hummm. Anyhow, dear poor suffering reader, of note on my radar;
1. The World is Down but Not Out, is the title of the Global Economics Weekly that I published Wednesday Sept 1st, ( circulated to this list soon after), and reflects my view of how all you should ponder life this week. Interestingly, I received quite a few incoming hostile emails in response, and references to some weird blog sites who apparently opine on my views. Most of the tone of these kind words (!) pertained to some aspect of me being persistently optimistic about life….. Well, frankly, I would rather be regarded with that bias that the dreary pessimistic nonsense that underlies much of what those bloggers probably write about. Some that know me for a long time would know it is not quite how many fashionably perceive but …
2. Why the World is Not Out? At the core of this issue, and why so many people can’t get it, because they are not prepared to get it, is that us wonderfully developed countries aren’t the key drivers in –economic-life anymore. Symptomatic of the considerable pieces we have written about BRIClife for what is approaching nine years soon , is an excellent 166 page report just published by the OECD, “ Perspectives on Global Development 2010”. Anybody that doesn’t realize how many hundreds of millions that have been taken out of global poverty the past 10 years or so, the billion or so that are probably going to be over the next 20 years, or that still thinks when the” US catches a cold the world catches pneumonia” should buy a copy and take it on any Autumnal weekend away you might be planning.
Alternatively, or in addition, you could actually read our Weekly and look at some of the evidence, and look at many of the ongoing pieces of evidence to demonstrate the changing landscape. There have been endless again this week.
3. Indian GDP at 8.8pct for Q2 for example, more than double the “ hindu “ rate of growth despite the US and developed world challenges. When China prints anything decent still, I continue to read widespread commentary about the data being “ fiddled”…same for India? I think not, dearest grizzlies….
4. Australian GDP for Q2 stronger than expected, no recession for 20 years…………
5. Full page article in the FT on Wednesday ( I think) about booming luxury goods demand, and for luxury goods company ownership in Asia.
6. Remarkable jump in EU consumer confidence ( yes EU……!)
7. Risk on /risk off. In the devoted professional world of trading and investing, the usual weird mood surrounding this topic dominates , even if it isn’t really true or useful. As I remarked to many people internally in a voicemail today, it isn’t just me that thinks this is a bit daft, it is the markets themselves. I think you might regard our “ Next 11” countries as involving some risk. 10 of the 11 have some sort of equity market, Iran being the exception. As of this morning, 9 of them are up year to date, some of them considerably, and 4 double digit gains. Indonesia, Turkey, Nigeria and Bangladesh. So what is all this – US asset based- risk on or off, actually all about?
8. The US, has –finally-enjoyed a bit of a respite from the disappointing run of data this week, with the ISM and second consecutive week of a decline in job claims. One should not get carried away by this, especially the ISM evidence as the inventory/orders guts were less clear, and of course, it follows weeks of significant disappointments. Of growing interest , or what should be, is more and more talk about fresh fiscal stimulus, and it might involve tax cuts…..So possible fiscal stimulus, incredible accommodative financial conditions from the Fed, and markets are going to fall apart? I think not.
9. The UK slowing- a bit. No two ways about it this week. With both the manufacturing and services PMI showing meaningful steps lower, this adds to other bits and pieces that show some of the strong recovery momentum here has faded. Ben Broadbent and Kevin Daly have discussed that in recent days. No doubt this will add to the never ending intense media debate about US fiscal tightening and scaring everyone, but please read what Ben and Kevin say, the UK is slowing, but it is a bit………
10. Europe , EMU and the ECB. Finally Erik Nielsen and Alexandre Kohlas published an extremely interesting paper, Global Paper no 203 this week, entitled, “ The ECB’s Role in Shaping the future of EMU policy co-ordination”. In it, they suggest that the ECB could use a rather simple economic based scoring system to determine the rates at which they deal with sovereigns, and thereby directly act as a form of discipline on the whole system. I suspect it will , and hope it does, get a lot of attention.
Just seen the payroll numbers, what another nice surprise ahead of the weekend that celebrates “ labour”.. Enjoy…
Of course, Jim will focus on the irrelevant number that confirms the economy is deteriorating, but will casually ignore the indicator that confirms that about 65% of the US economy is now on the verge of contracting.
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Have the women of Iran been introduced to the dildo yet?
Whenever I see Arabian women covered in black veils/robes I always picture a dildo underneath it all. I must have a dirty mind
With that avatar and screen name, dirty mind - no way.
Just to say that the real Biggus Dickus does not condone this nonsense.
Welease Woger!
Kicking off the intellectual part of the discussion..........
...says the man with dismembered torso.
So you have seen my press releases? That is inspiring coming from a STBD sniffer like yourself.
"Look Vanessa! I can see Uranus!"
Excuse me, it's Ur-ahhhh-nus.
There now, all better.
It seems that you have a dildo mind rather than a dirty mind. Do you like to be penetrated as you seem to think others around need to be? Do you recommend big and long or firm and thick? Your answer usually gives away your sex, mate.
My eyesight's going...what's your avatar?
DavidC
Take this Tyler
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-08-20/kenneth-fisher-recommends-stocks-as-pessimism-surges.htm
This guy is an uber-douche! Somebody needs to show him the real world.
he sounds like a racist to me as well.
F**k GS
all their con artist mis/disinformation agents are the scum of the earth
And I was Worried about Ozzie Ozborne on the Crazy Train!
"...Labour Day weekend ( already you say), 2/3 of the year over, and next week, everyone will be back with enthusiasm , drive and passion for the wonderful opportunities that lie ahead..."
The "WTF?" button on my QWERTY has jammed.
2/3 way through the year. Lemme see, just about paid off our tax liability, primarily to the federalies. Well, La-de-dah re-fucking-joice! I wondered where the money for the increased health insurance premiums (to pay for the new cheaper and improved health program) , the tuition check, the dry rot, and auto body work were comin' from. Boundless enthusiasm, my ass. How about on the border of clinical fucking depression and psychopathic rage?
Talking about boundlessenthusiasmenergy and whateverthefuck. Ego-centric twat. How's it that he works for Goldilocks and makes Goldilocks millions and seems to think that the rest of the world is all hunkie-dorrie just like him with his caviar, champagne and assorted chocolate covered monkey stool dropping coffee beans?
Is the disconnect with me or him?
Next he'll tell us to celebrate because Lance Armstrong's only got one teste left and's graduated to the unicycle.
(Primal Screams)
In the good old days people like these were banished incommunicado to desert islands and forced to mate with goats, for posterity and fulfill the ranks of future governmental employees.
yeah and lets not forget pakistan
you can do a roaring trade there in rubber dinghies at the mo
Well, when your whole world is built on lies and dreams it's all you have.
Some day, there may not be a CNBC or a Zero Hedge.
I would be truly sorry about the Zero Hedge part, but I wouldn't want to lie to myself to keep it around.
Iran's stock market has outperformed America's this year (0 percent is better than a negative number)! Must be a sign I am unwilling to accept.
Ha.
Decoupling is a reality, it depends on how badly these emerging economies central banks screw up.
Thailand seems to be doing the right thing. The Bank of Thailand, is letting the Baht go up. 7% GDP growth, low unemployment ect.
India would my choice for risking some dough. But when our dominoes start falling they will cover the globe. Cash is nice. Gold is better.
You must be kidding about India. Take a look at the trend line for the Sensex at www.chartsrus.com - sensex needs to be no higher than 6000 while its at a massive 18000 + !!
He's expecting continuation of the carry trade, that's all.
If you had access to FRNs at ZIRP, where would YOU invest the money in a bubble project? Brazil or India. Or if the bribes were done right, his "next 11."
South Seas and Mississippi, here we come!!!
If you're doing standup, the Uranus joke is an automatic, "I was flying around the Universe last night, and I saw Uranus.."
While searching for Klingons
- Spock to Captain Kirk, there's Klingons around Uranus.
(Beavis and Butthead)
they're making a comeback by the way, maybe this time they'll score!!
James T Kirk, the T standing for Teflon, to fight the Klingons...
DavidC
what about a good question for a fat astrologer chick...how big is Uranus?
I wonder what weird pessimistic blog site the dancing fool is referring to.
Jim needs a nap
Iran! 133billion barrels of oil and they have to IMPORT GASOLINE. Yeah, real cradle of creativity and innovation there...
No refineries for said oil. Someone's kept it that way...
I had a friend who worked for the UN some time ago. She said that there is a huge drug problem in Iran (opium), plus a high incidence of tuberculosis. These guys don't exactly have a stable base to operate from.
If I had 133 Bn barrels of oil I could afford to site refineries in your backyard sucka!
Don't you be forgettting that specialization of labor class.
Tyler, do you have his email id?
Mommy, please get it for me!
Mark these words very carefully-
If Iran can shift merely the tiniest amount westwards *, I'm-a-dinnajacket will fall, and take his mullah masters with him, and Turkey/Iran will become the new powerhouse.
You better send some people to look at Turkey, no fools there. Look at all the worldwide US engineering giants -they all use Turkish Engineers on the outlying projects.
Ahh religion (both Economic and Almighty) -the two great enemies of human emancipation.
* I say 90% certain.
Well said. American peeps display profound ignorance believing that all Iranians are ignorant, dirt-poor firebrand fanatics. That is the image our controlled media is fostering relentlessly; which would be tantamount to considering the meth cookers in Winter's Bone representative of all Americans.
Many Iranians despise the Mullahs. The hard-core of any religion are going to be phased out fairly soon - fire & brimstone doesn't flush with the NWO, whose OWG is the future.
Exactly. Just maybe the Iranians, Uraniums, Hisraelis, and Yemeni-Somalis as well have some wack leaders that ruin it for all the real people just like you.
What if he's right? In the long-term, from the demographics point of view many of his lobbed countries have more hope than US and Europe ...
I wonder at times if it just better to drink the Kool-aid and ignore reality. It would make things a lot easier.
Yes, it would be better, Vampy. You are starting to understand. You show much potential. Continue along this course and you may be allowed to live, unlike the others here who refuse to submit to the grand plan.
i have thought that for many years
Now, what we'd like you to do is dig that credit card out of your wallet and go on a massive shopping spree. You'll feel a lot better. We promise to never make you pay. The suckers who try to be "responsible", "live within their means", and "save for a rainy day" are only cheating themselves.
Anybody that's been paying attention through this whole "financial crisis" must be able to see that the wreckless get bailed out time and time again and the "responsible" ones are made to foot the bill.
Fuck the kool-aid - make mine a Stella, please... ;-)
Somalia, Yemen, Sudan, North Korea and Block Island...These will drive the World economy
you forgot the uranus bitches and all that makeup
Uranus, bitchez!!!! - fuck it, somebody had to do it - happy Friday party peeps
why do you tell me
only things I want to hear
why dont you tell me
this could just dissapear
at the same time
you keep tracking treasure down
you tell me of pirate-ships and fairytales
you have me wishing that everything
was real
Gabriel & Dresden - Tracking Treasure Down
ps: friday playlists can be found in "Frontrunning" :D
thx... was loooking for those
Deleted
The market is up today. Where in the hell is Beaks?
Abby Joseph O'Neill
What happened to Russia in 2008 was a godsend! you could buy fundamentally sound companies with active growth at 80% off!
Any investor should pray that gets a generational buying opportunity like that.
thats what i'm waiting for here...once in a generation buying opportunity....IF THE COMMUNIST BITCHES WILL GET OUT OF THE WAY!!!!!!
that's my plan, too. but has it been a wait. as they say patience is a virtue and I have lots of 'em. so let's see who wins at the end. probably the fed will.
Tyler: Don't make fun of Uranus until you have spent some time there. Oh wait...
It's all about JUMPS. Jupiter, Uranus, Mars, Pluto and Saturn. Emerging markets to soak up U.S. Treasuries.
He lost all credibility by not mentioning Uzbekistan!
This GS agents have no soul.
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