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As Jim O'Neill's Koolaid Dispenser Runs Out, The Goldman Sachs Asset Management Head Sees QE3

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Sun, 06/12/2011 - 14:59 | 1363309 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

I was regarded as a raving lunatic for suggesting it was possible that US unemployment might fall below 6 pct by the end of 2013.

I don't think that's crazy at all, I mean by then most of the 99ers will have fallen permanently off UE bennies (i.e. no longer counted as unemployed), and post Greater Depression graduates that never got jobs will have never been counted to begin with!

Fudging numbers has never been so easy...

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 15:04 | 1363321 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

nice life. Strollign in the alps and all.

But, one thing has started to get my goat a little.

Germany is no great miracle. They are fantastic designers and low-volume, high quality manufacturers. But they get most of their sales via washed back "loans" to poor countries, whether as development loans or SAP opeing a 10,000 person center....you know, off-sets. THrough EADS etc., Germany is hugely "in". So, yeah, they are not some amazing story.

It was set up like this. Just as it was for Japan. The Axis, Two amazing manufacturign nations, One craftsman, one mass market and a bumbling manufacturer, Italy, in the middle.

Hah.

Anyways, Germany is super weak. Japan weak. And both highly Nuclear. Go figure.

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/06/09/anniversary-thoughts/

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 17:27 | 1363522 Franken_Stein
Franken_Stein's picture

You are probably right.

Germany is weak.

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 18:00 | 1363553 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Today strength is being less weak than your neighbor. I see Germany big in renewables in ten years time ahead of USA and France. They have big projects in MENA. Only China can match and they have huge energy problems....I still think that Germany has protected markets in EU/EM through technology and a strategic supply link to Russia and Turkey. Turkey will be key player in ME along with Iran when it breaks free from ideological rift.

All will depend of relative role of USA in coming years. By 2016 if the USA slips into structural reform and EU breaks into two tier reform, Germany will start to climb very fast. It is essential for the Eurozone to split into two tier structure...Before it rejoins in ten to twenty years...But that is crystal ball gazing...

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 18:11 | 1363569 PY-129-20
PY-129-20's picture

You're basically right about Germany. I wouldn't call it "super weak" though. It is definitely not a miracle story. Keep in mind that Germany was reunified. Although the working force from the East is in a good shape, the West had a lot of work to do. It isn't the same country I was born in and grew up.

Germany is just doing what everyone else in the world is doing - pretending to be something they aren't. Faking numbers...in a way our business elites always copied the American model. You could say this about almost every other economy now - everyone is pretending, everyone is faking numbers... you said it once, ORI, numb-ers.

I do not believe in this Chindia story. I think India has a long way to go. But I am more optimistic about India than about China. I like both countries. There is only one thing about India that frightens me - Pakistan. The complete outlook of Pakistan is just grim.

I hope that Asia will never make the same experiences that Europe did. There are many problems - especially border conflicts (part of European colonialism)

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 15:13 | 1363328 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

So this asshole gets his anecdotal evidence from 100$ chairlift rides, globe trottting and eating his face off and calls it research?  Fuck off

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 17:02 | 1363485 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Don't most of these aloof asswipes?

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 15:12 | 1363335 SolidSnake961
SolidSnake961's picture

looks like jim left out the models part of models and bottles

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 15:15 | 1363339 GeneMarchbanks
GeneMarchbanks's picture

Tyler are these podcasts from these raving lunatics gonna be a regular thing now?

Anyway the man is delusional.

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 15:24 | 1363349 slow_roast
slow_roast's picture

It was snowing tsunamis in Japan bitchez!  BTFD

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 15:29 | 1363354 Corduroy
Corduroy's picture

Are we ever going to get a financial industry serial killer... Surely there must be a serial killer out there intelligent enough to know that they would be famous beyond compare...

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 16:10 | 1363413 Rational Psycho
Rational Psycho's picture

Someone smart enough to kill off the right people would be smart enough to not become famous for it

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 19:32 | 1363683 Corduroy
Corduroy's picture

Nice handle.. And I take your point, however if it ever were to happen Im sure the MSM would like a conviniently placed credit card or blank cheque left on the body for tracking purposes...

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 15:28 | 1363361 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

At what point does further debasement of the dollar result in stock market destruction, rather than juicing, as nobody is able to afford to buy anything anymore and margin compression becomes murderous?

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 16:04 | 1363402 oldmanagain
oldmanagain's picture

+1

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 17:29 | 1363524 dracos_ghost
dracos_ghost's picture

Methinks we are going to see within the next month. I don't think they have unwound this QE2/Dollar carry trade yet. Now that they might have to wait a bit, it might be "RISK OFF" big time.

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 15:54 | 1363388 apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

Isn't is odd that whenever these guys mention Japan, there is never a comment about the nuclear fallout and the eventual wasteland that the country will become.  A conspiracy of silence or just plain delusion?

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 18:06 | 1363557 Conrad Murray
Conrad Murray's picture

While we were debating it, an Indian gentleman came up to the kiosk, handed over five crisp CHF 100 notes and paid for six of them without a blink! We finally decided to go up.

This is all you need to know about this clown. Argues with his wife like a bitch until some Indian comes through and shows them up. Not an original thought in his pea brain. Just do whatever the herd is doing. "Fukushima? That's not on the news, nothing to worry about. I'm sure the EXPERTS would have something to say if there were a problem. Yes yes, quite right".

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 15:56 | 1363390 TraderMark
TraderMark's picture

Also, Roubini starting to get Roubini-ish about 2013.  Chinese hard landing, kicking the can eventually stops, U.S. cyclical slowdown. 

QEinifnity.

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/06/nouriel-roubini-getting-well-rou...

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 16:01 | 1363397 southsea13
southsea13's picture

"I don`t think people should be as stressed out at they are...." I guess by `people`(?) he means his mates and the macro bush trimmers he`s rubbing shoulders with. Jim`s just jealous that there`s `too many` Indians who can afford the chairlift without the blink of an eye; he`ll probably be bitching about it over a few pints of ale while watching Manchester United`s overpaid prima donnas kicking a ball around.

I guess life`s just one big cloudswept chairlift ride for Jim. God knows when he`s going to come off it. 

 

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 15:58 | 1363398 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

his commentary continues to be superficial, he's clearly wearing rose colored glasses.

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 16:06 | 1363409 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

I'll donate 1000 bucks to a charity of Jims chosing for every 0.1% below that 6% UE rate , any month he likes in 2013.  - i'll go with the standard BLS nonsense statistics too but working in FEMA camps doesn't count to bringing the rate down though

 

- fuck it , i'll make it 10k on the condition for every 0.1% above 6 he donates an equal amount to Zerohedge. Or resigns from the Squid.

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 16:15 | 1363418 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

OD'd on hopium...

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 16:26 | 1363432 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

His picture should be next to the "talking book" definition....

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 19:04 | 1363636 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

that's not as bad as b. gross constantly whining his book.

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 19:04 | 1363638 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Come on guys, stop buying treasuries already! [/sniveling high pitched voice]

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 16:27 | 1363433 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

There are ways to do qe3 that steal value from the rest of the world, the most obvious is moderate inflation in a low inflation expectations environment.

Let us be smart and force the world to subsidize us thru this mess since they most have pegs or soft targets and refuse to free float. Take advantage while we can

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 17:52 | 1363544 eureka
eureka's picture

tct - indeed, you are a troll, and to top it off a proto-nationalist hegemon - too immoral to be a Libertarian; remember, Libertarianism rejects government regulations and rather rests on morality to actuate self-control, which leads to the question: What ARE you doing on zerohedge?

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 18:00 | 1363554 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

We fucked up the best way to get out of this situation.

Now we need to take advantage of the world ex europe refusing to value currencies fairly.

They have tried to hollow out the usa economy. We can now use their economic warfare against us ( because that is truly what they are doing) as a way to force them to subsidize us.

Turnabout is fair play.

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 16:40 | 1363452 Subprime JD
Subprime JD's picture

Jim O'Neill is a genius and will be proven right when unemployment hits sub 6% by 2013. Once the Bureau of Labor Statistics starts counting chronically unemployed persons as nonpersons the headline unemployment rate will fall which will lead to greater consumer confidence leading to a cyclical recovery.

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 16:55 | 1363472 fonestar
fonestar's picture

Yeah, some genius all right.  Sub 6% unemployment too, I would buy that for a dollar too.  Unemployment is typically low when everyone is fighting a global conflict or sweeping up a FEMA camp or racing to join your local citizen's spy service!

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 17:10 | 1363494 Subprime JD
Subprime JD's picture

Sarcasm aside, I truly fear that the US is going down the route of Oceania (1984) where numbers will be complete fantasy in order to keep the proles from getting antsy.

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 17:59 | 1363552 eureka
eureka's picture

For the sake of fantasy perfect Disney-US-HomeLand appearances remember to keep Foodstamps and motivational Hollywood dreck flowing as well. 

Jim O'Neill has "Luxury Goods" (he always talk about how well LGs are doing). 

Even proles have needs; To maintain the fantasy, as O'Neil gets LGs, proles must get junk.

Fake stats alone won't do it.

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 16:41 | 1363453 NERVEAGENTVX
NERVEAGENTVX's picture

Awwww...Poor babies are going to have to start trading fundamentals again. Now all the lousy data points that the markets have been completely ignoring for the last year are finally going to start to mean something again.

Funny how QE2 hasn't even ended yet and  the money junkees are already screaming for more dope, more dope, more dope.

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 17:08 | 1363488 Problem Is
Problem Is's picture

"I joined some Goldman Sachs colleagues for a lunch with some leading macro hedge fund investors..."

Sounds like the completely inane, moronic, dickwad, Commander McBragg bullshit the madhedgefundertrader posts...

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 18:01 | 1363555 Bartanist
Bartanist's picture

Is that TD "in the first person"?

Didn't know he had Goldman Sachs colleagues ... but makes as much sense as anything else.

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 17:16 | 1363506 oldmanagain
oldmanagain's picture

When the downturn started the derivative count was about 650 trillion.  Don't know the current count, or if QE's count.  The pressure seems to be getting to Dimon, and O'neal is banking on diversions of his time to not think.

I think the idea was to gently lay this turkey to rest but events in the diverging world interfered.  The blame seems to be directed at the poor(lazy mothersf's), Keynes, Freidman, Pubs, and Demos, locally.

Internationally, the major item is delivering enough resources/product to those who can pay for it.  Our daily world consumption of oil is about 85 million barrels. USA consumes about 23 million and China 2 million.  If China consumed like Amerika there would be no oil left and our own production sold off.

Just don't think we can print enough money to defeat mother nature.  We don't need any more derivatives but direct investment in readjusting our existence to cope with the new realities of resources, climate, population, etc.  Those "animal spirits" may eat us alive if we succumb to the idiocy of current crop of pubs.

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 17:21 | 1363509 eureka
eureka's picture

Jim O'Neill is a ham, a talking doll, a parlor boy. He should have been a sitcom actor.

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 17:23 | 1363511 Subprime JD
Subprime JD's picture

There is a reason why these shills get promoted to these positions. The sole purpose of their job is to be stock market pump monkeys and nothing more.

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 17:24 | 1363518 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

if the Bernanke is really a student of The Great Depression, then he surely knows that this has only been a bear rally (same as 1930) and the Greatest Depression is still to come

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 17:54 | 1363546 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

We already allowed mark to market to become 'mark to unicorn'. No real price discovery necessary. So when they tell you it's worth $X, they really mean $0.0X. Next we're working on bending the definition of "Default". If Greece doesn't pay back the amount due on the date promised, we won't consider that a default, just a "debt re-profiling". So asset values and debt repayment schedules are now fungible. 

So it makes perfect sense that Jim O'Neill would think that a negative GDP print over 2 quarters would not represent a "Recession". It might just be a "growth re-profiling". Even major economic reports will soon be fungible. 

Of course it all depends on what the meaning of the word is is . 

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 20:35 | 1363786 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

no different than saying a blow job is not sexual relations

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 18:04 | 1363561 flyr1710
flyr1710's picture

this guy views 'unfortunate events' as man u getting spanked by barca. no wonder he is completely clueless with the recent set of data. 

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 18:10 | 1363562 richard in norway
richard in norway's picture

my short postion has been closed down for running out of time, this has never happened before. does this mean that the market is gonna tank tomorrow or i am just paranoid. im a newbie at trading so maybe this is normal but i would be really fucking pissed if it was a lose making short, but im not too fussed now cos i was thinking of closing it, expecting a rally sometime

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 18:08 | 1363563 richard in norway
richard in norway's picture

market opened market tanked

 

now im pissed

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 18:39 | 1363608 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Actually your results are fairly typical. It used to happen to me all the time.

These things are often a signal the market will sink further, but it always does so in a way that prevents the majority from profiting on shorts.

I have kept my powder dry. A good philosophy is to let the market have the first and last 20 percent of any short term run and be happy it gives you 60 percent of the trend.

Mathman had to short the market twice to finally catch the silver top. Dont be afraid to short again soon, if the signs are right.

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 18:54 | 1363629 richard in norway
richard in norway's picture

thanks

 

im gonna try oil again, it was good for me on friday

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 18:54 | 1363630 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

 Near the village is a ski lift that you can ride up to the glacier for panoramic views at 3,000 metres. It costs a whopping CHF 77 to ride there and back. Given today’s exchange rate, it is not exactly a bargain!

Really Jim? Really....?? 

Cant believe he's pretending like he didnt put that 77CHF on his GS expense card.

Sun, 06/12/2011 - 19:19 | 1363658 Eireann go Brach
Eireann go Brach's picture

Easy fix...Send all the unemployed to Guam so it will finally tip over the island and disappear! I think one of Obamas brothers in Congress said this.

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