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Jim Rickards Compares The Collapse Of The Roman Empire To The US, Concludes That We Are Far Worse Off
In the latest two-part interview with Jim Rickards by Eric King, the former LTCM General Counsel goes on a lengthy compare and contrast between the Roman Empire (and especially the critical part where it collapses) and the U.S. in it current form. And while we say contrast, there are few actual contrasts to observe: alas, the similarities are just far too many, starting with the debasement of the currencies, whereby Rome's silver dinarius started out pure and eventually barely had a 5% content, and the ever increasing taxation of the population, and especially the most productive segment - the farmers, by the emperors, to the point where the downfall of empire was actually greeted by the bulk of the people as the barbarians were welcomed at the gate with open arms. The one key difference highlighted by Rickards: that Rome was not as indebted to the gills as is the US. Accordingly, the US is in fact in a far worse shape than Rome, as the ever increasing cost of funding the debt can only come from further currency debasement, which in turn merely stimulates greater taxation, and more printing of debt, accelerating the downward loop of social disintegration. Furthermore, Rickards points out that unlike the Romans, we are way beyond the point of diminishing marginal utility, and the amount of money that must be printed, borrowed, taxed and spent for marginal improvements in the way of life, from a sociological standpoint, is exponentially greater than those during Roman times. As such, once the collapse begins it will feed on itself until America is no more. Rickards believes that this particular moment may not be too far off...
In this context, Rickards presumes, it is not at all surprising that both individual Americans and domestic corporations have set off on a massive deleveraging and cash conservation wave: the subliminal sense that something very bad is coming, is becoming more palpable with each passing day. The bottom line is that the Fed, just as our founding fathers had warned, could very well end up being the catalyst to the downfall of American society as it cannibalizes all productive output and transfers the wealth to the oligarchy, while paying for this transfer in the form of unrepayable indebtedness. Ostensibly, had the army of Ancient Rome agreed to be paid in paper instead of (even diluted) precious metals, thus creating the first central bank in history, the collapse of that particular overstretched empire would have been far quicker. On the other hand, it would have prevented the disaster of Central banking in its current form, as civilization would have learned about its evils far sooner. Alas, that did not happened, and it now befalls upon the current generation to realize just how much of a destructive influence central banking truly is. If Jim Rickards is correct, however, the realization will be America's last, just before US society disintegrates.
Must hear two part interview can be found here:
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There was no "collapse" in the classical Gibbonian sense of the word. [which was taking Enlightenment into methodological orthodoxy trough eradication of time-applicability mapping]
Read Le Goff [I really can not stress that enough].
There was only integration and pluralization. Parts of the Empire "survived" in their "Roman" and "proto-Roman" form until 15th Century virtually unchanged.
Again, read Le Goff.
The Roman West was reborn in the Christian East.
"Reborn" is a strong word to use given the East was differentiated from the Roman center of influence during the Later Republic and whole of the Empire. West "died" while East continued with its cultural, political and all other singularities. The principal paradigmatic difference was linguistic and in the linguistic extensions in the forms of cohesiveness of culture etc etc. Again; read Le Goff. This can not be easily discussed in the comment section of a blog [no matter how good and relevant said blog may be].
The Rebirth was meant to be allegorical as well as geopolitical. Constantine intended to revitalize the empire by relocating the center of power to a new dynamic city at the same time as embracing the "new faith". The Rebirth was no accident.
the Rebirth was no accident b/c it was an okie-doke.
(modern day equivalent : Hope! Change!)
death to Rome, long live the Empire.
(we'll call it 'Holy' this time just to fuck with 'em)
Rome never died, it just transmogrified.
Well said Tip e.
Lot's of transmogrification happening around us as we speak, eh?
Temporally and anecdotally though,fire plays a great role in transmogrification in general. SO we had rome, burt libraries (always a part and parcel of transmogrification), Guy Fawkes, Reichstag and now WTC.
I say, as a species, we're on fire!
Fire is the only natural process, as a result of which, the component parts of the transmogrified (burnt) entity cannot ever be reassembled.
Fires are true catalyts for change of "state"!
Change of "State"! Hah!
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com
Yeah but it was harder for Rome to hold it's head up as high after it had been sacked three or four times and the following centuries were to become known as "The Dark Ages."
Again read Le Goff.
I did not write "Read Le Goff" and not kept in mind the universal application of that statement to all of misconceptions I expected to see in the responses to my comment. There was no "Dark Ages". Its a notion streaming from early 19th Century when Enlightenment was in full force and was coined to hyperbolize the "negativity of Church and Dogma". The term is itself neologism from late 18th Century.
True! However what was being referred to was not just the near death of arts and sciences but the fracturing of power into a million competing fragments.
The 500 or so years following the original sack of Rome seem like a pretty bleak time to have been a European to me. The Less Desirable Ages perhaps.
I thought Le Goff was a Medieval (as opposed to Roman/classical) guy?? And what the heck is methodological orthodoxy trough eradication of time-applicability mapping supposed to mean?
Methodological stuff; not very important here.
What you are referring to as "Dark Ages" is purely from todays perspective.
Plus the anchor for such nomenclature is Christian Doctrine, Dogma and Theology. Structurally there is no difference between Universality of Christian Doctrine and Dogma and Universality of Scientific Method [to that I point you towards Feyerabend].
Le Goff is not a "medieval" historian, but historian of Antiquity. You can not make "clean cuts" and start discussing "Medieval" from 476 onwards. You need to go back to at least the 1st Triumvirate. 500 years [or so] back to late stages of the Republic.
Fair enough although I think it's pretty clear that the scientific method fostered the advancement of human understanding about the world quite a bit more than most of what came before it.
However Taleb points out in one of his books that it was the renegade barbers and other such unorthodox experimenters who, in the shadows, advanced medical science much more than most of the respected academics and doctors who stubbornly stuck to their wacky and life shortening theories and practices.
Pre-Renaissance advancement of Christian Scholars in fields of The Empirical was brought fort mostly by claiming the works of Islamic Scholars of al-Andalus and other Western European Caliphates when the religious fervor between Christians-Jews-Muslims culminated in cultural [and all other] eradication of Muslim and Jewish Culture, Politics and State forms.
The best proof of that thesis can be found in the development of non-euclidean geometry to which mostly Islamic scholars headed by Ibn al-Haytham, Omar Khayyám, Nasir al-Din al-Tusi contributed and which was re-introduced [and claimed] only centuries later by Saccheri and his work on the non-Euclidean quadrilateral which was originally conjectured by the aforementioned Islamic scholars first. Saccheri did the notational part; and later Bolyai, Gauss and Lobatchevsky had a big fight [but mostly Gauss vs. Bolyai] for the title of THE non-Euclidean Geometer. Riemann completed the most important part of it with differential geometry of manifolds [which is extremely important if you want to mathematically describe the curvature of space for D such that D ∈ [2, 32] ] which served as the mathematical basis of Einstein-Minkowski physics which you may know by the name of Special and General Theory of Relativity. There are many other eamples but this is the most obvious one.
Depending on the particular time/place in question I think a good deal of that Muslim empirical advancement was due to the fact that the Muslims stayed more connected to the works/culture/legacy of the Greeks and Romans than Christian Europe did. I know "Dark Ages" is kind of a ham-fisted appellation but you can't have it both ways: other cultures (Islamic in this case) kept the ball rolling in the spirit-of-inquiry department while most of Europe officially frowned on all that, focusing instead on how many angels could dance on the head of a pin. The few glimmers of scientific midnight oil that did burn in Christian Europe often relied/borrowed/stole heavily from the scholars who operated in a friendlier environment.
A bit of a shame for the Islamic world's sake that all that kind of fizzled out.
I would also point out that whatever Muslim advancements that may have relied/built on Indian scholarship would probably not have been as possible had Alexander (a cultural if not actual Greek) not (forcibly) bridged the Greco-Roman and Asian worlds.
everyone has a part to play on the stage, whether western, eastern, muslim, christian, jew, hindu or buddhist. the problem lies when all of the actors start to think they're the lead when the script calls for an ensemble piece.
Yes, but second-handedly trough Persia/Persians. There was absolutely no [due to 1400 year temporal gap between the peak of Greek Culture and the beginning of proto-Islamic one]. India was mostly isolated from Western thought [which is, one can say a good thing] and thus the lack of symmetry in methods etc etc is more than evident even in the basic things like mathematical methods, philosophy, polytheism etc etc.
If we really need a hierarchy of "development" it would be this one:
1) Greece/Egypt 2) Rome 3) India/China [2000 BC - 1500 AD] 4) Persia/Early to Middle Islam 4) "Enlightened" Europe 5) European Modernism 6) Post-structuralism and Break of Metanarratives. 7) Break of Discourse
Linearity is mostly applicable but there are always localities [i.e 6th, 7th Century in North-Western Europe, parts of China in 2nd Century; Baghdad post-Mongol invasion etc etc] where there was a regression in the degree of complexity and development. But, loosely, the historical narrative would go as described above.
I'll buy that although the jury is still out as far as I'm concerned on how far 6) & 7) have advanced the ball down the field.
Heh! - so much for: This can not be easily discussed in the comment section of a blog [no matter how good and relevant said blog may be].
Thanks.
When the Roman Empire collapsed in 476 A.D, Islam was not around.
Yeah but the point is when Islamic culture did "flower" Greco-Roman culture, it's legacies and achievements in various forms were still very much around especially in the Med. neighborhood.
When Building 7 collapsed in 2001, Islam was not around.
CB, your erudition impresses. Thank you for a very interesting and insightful post.
Agreed. Thanks for the thought provoking thread.
Im just happy that, for the first time in about a month, an intelligent conversation developed in the comment section which did not include as many "fucks" or infowars.com links as other threads. But this was probably an anomaly. Tomorrow; back to the old regime.
"But this was probably an anomaly. Tomorrow; back to the old regime."
let's hope not.
and folks are junking you and CB? marla! let the authors see the junkers - and expose them if they will.
(great thread, btw)
It's made out to be Bleak.
If you where a powerful noble, there was no one willing to wait on your hand and every need.
If you where a peon-farmer, your nutritional in take actually improved after the sacking of Rome (if you survived it a few years after).
Supporting Empire takes everything from everyone.
Does anyone know of anything I can read to give me better clarity on the matter?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decline_of_the_Roman_Empire
+1 on the comment and the recommendation. Thanks for pointing me to Le Goff.
Another really useful and amusing read is a book written at the time of the fall. I forget the author at the moment, but he was one of the Roman elites, who retired and went to his Villa in the South of France. Written around 407 AD or so.
He was commenting that he couldn't take the roads and had to go by sea! The Empire was built by those roads, and none of them could be used! And along the way, he passed whole cities that were now empty.
Never once did it cross his mind that the Empire was falling. A most amazing read, and you can find it on the Internet.
any more info on that book? what you posted isn't googling up anything....
Here you go. I came across it at this conference here. This overview is well worth the read, as it puts it in context:
http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/5528
The Book is "A Voyage Home to Gaul by Rutilius Namatianus"
A superb interactive translation is here:
http://penelope.uchicago.edu/Thayer/E/Roman/Texts/Rutilius_Namatianus/te...
But if you were referring to Le Goff's book, it's on Amazon, along with a bit of the Book published for free viewing.
Hey, thanks for the response eternal.
appreciate it....
Which Le Goff title? Medieval Civilization 400-1500?
--mamba-mamba
How sad. The USA is capable of a lot, or at least it was. Consider what the US accomplished from 1939-1945; defeating global fascism, armory to the allied forces. Everybody worked, nobody consumed anything but the barest of essentials, everybody saved all else (war bonds).
All it takes is the right leadership. And that we certainly do not have
Sure, but leadership can't change the consumerism mentality the media has been feeding the US for years.
The average US household in the 40's went from low income - low consumption,
To the 60's where it was higher income - low consumption,
To the 80's where it was high income - high consumption,
To the 00's where it was high income - hyper consumption,
To the 10's where it is now falling income - hyper consumption.
It's an equation that can't hold. The hyper consumption lifestyle this country now idolizes as part of the "American Dream" is the root cause of these problems. The only way to "make a sale" and get the gadget into someone's hand who has no money is to offer 'no money down'. Therein lies the financial scams that Greenspan facilitated.
I doubt leadership will change that. Years of deflation will cure that the hard way.
Or 0% interest for 8 years.
Leadership can change behaviour. There are examples if you look. People want to be led. The offerings paraded before us come Primary time are are shlls and selected for their abilty to parrot the party line.
Our preliminary selection of prospective representatives and our lobby process must be fundamentally changed before we can begin to tackle the situations we face,
pacific silverside...
Actually, the right leadership is a myth. Just read Tainter, and how Civilizations collapse. There's really nothing that can be done at this point, except deal with it the best you can.
This is a bit off-topic, but it's probably fairer to say that the U.S. defeated Japan in WWII. The Russians would have defeated Germany all on their own and were well on their way to doing that when we entered the European theater. By the time D-Day rolled around, the Germans were on their last legs.
edit
post deleted - sorry for the dump.
I just hope inflating gold relative to M1 works - my fear is that it will have to go all the way to M3.
I don't quite get why currency debasement stimulates greater taxation. Higher rates? Absolute amounts? I don't quite get it. Can someone help me understand this?
I can't speak for the author, but tax brackets are one issue. If they aren't adjusted inflation pushes you up to higher brackets over time.
A debased $ doesn't buy as much, thus "inflation" - which is the worst tax. It also causes taxes to increase as the gov. needs more $'s to buy the same stuff, just like you.
Think of the "alternative minimum tax" and how many have been caught in it VS what it was created to catch...
All right... all right... but apart from better sanitation and medicine and education and irrigation and public health and roads and a freshwater system and baths and public order... what have the Romans done for us?
"what have the Romans done for us?"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fvDnG8TqPt8&feature=related
F A I L.
I do not think that they were a very dynamic society from a scientific perspective - maybe the success of their slave economy created a inertia in their ideas regarding labour saving devices.
And when things were not working out they may have pursued previously successful objectives when the environment urged a different course.
Given that oil provides the energy of many hundreds of slaves for a given westerner - the previously successful policies of rapid capital extraction and subsequent imaginative goods and services creation may have reached some limit but the west having used this framework for so long cannot now conceive of a more efficient solution
CEMENT!!!!!
It should though a lot of pain will be felt around the world before it is done. I would guess the US will end up at about a third the present value. Of course without the unions of the 70's achiving gross inflation will be impossible. Personally I see import inflation and domestic stagnation or in the case of 'real' estate deflation.
I am no student of history, but while comparisons to the collapse of the Roman Empire make interesting print, it seems like some rather big, meaningful differences. Who are the Visogoths in the current situation? Another country, or perhaps the financial system that got us into this mess? As another commenter pointed out, our 'Empire' hasn't been around for all that long relative to the Romans and we've hardly been in any kind of equilibrium state over the past few decades let alone the last century in the world. I've watched the debate rage here between the many bears and few bulls for a long time, and can only conclude that there is a good deal more turmoil ahead, even if it doesn't get reflected in the markets. We have a tale of three societies in the US: (1) the employed and prospering "bankers" that lost little and perhaps gained from the crisis [this category includes anyone linked to the financial system that is benefitting enormously from the boatloads of cash pouring into the banks daily courtesy of the free money policies, and probably the Treasury and Fed, both poulated heavily from folks in groups 1 and 2], (2) the politicians posturing to curry favor from their electorates over the pop issues of the day because of short term incentives (ie elections), and (3) everyone else. Seems like category three is dominated by people largely ignorant of the real issues at hand. Worse, this group is starting to see their freedom taken away by groups one and two. For evidence, one need only look at the massive spin control taking place by the administration over issues like unemployment (recovery summer?!?) and oil spills, and well at the current financial warfare underway (value of the dollar?, free unemployment money for two years?, bank earnings hitting records?)...
This may not be the collapse of an empire, but it is going to feel pretty lousy for a good long while, at least for group three.
Of course you can't compare everything for them (then) and us (now). Can you imagine how swiftly the fall would have been if they had to adhere to Moore's law? For cryin' out loud.
One could surmise that #3- everyone else- will fight back, and many have already started. It is a silent group but growing; they don't want to draw much attention. The second wave of defaulters are mounting-strategically, and otherwise. The financial weapons of #1 and #2 are white collared back at them by both white and blue collars.
It's an interesting thought experiment and all butttt...
What's it got to do with me!? I know the gubmint is going to pull us out of this. The shitstorm would affect everyone, not just peoples holding large quantities of UST's and USD's.
For fucks sake, if it got bad enough these guys would put everyone into tent cities with armed US Marines sitting on the fences. They would give you a $100 coupon every day that you have to spend at Walmart and Homo Depot.
Point being, we are not Rome dude. Our emperor has Unlimited Resources.
my comment was only related to the gold vs M1, or the oil carry trade.
It's "analysis" like this which makes people laugh at ZeroHedge and wonder if it is written by a lot of 14-year olds.
Try reading a serious scholarly book on Rome--several excellent ones have recently been written.
Rome was constantly on a war footing--a much greater percentage of its "GDP" went to the military than ours.
By the time Rome "fell" the city itself was a useless administrative center and the Empire was in fact several Empires.
Rome was constantly challenged by very violent invasions. It was Rome's extremely oppressive behavior toward its client states and outliers which made it so many constant enemies.
And please, no facile comparisons ("Wull, Washington's a useless administrative center, "Wull, America's got a lot of enemies, too").
Stop being utterly stupid and ignorant. Rome had NO middle class to speak of, it was a society of slaves and oligarchs.
You wanna compare it to American suburbia?? Hilarious and utterly absurd.
Now, America may well "collapse." As a matter of fact, do wake me up when college-educated unemployment in America reaches 60%.
But puleeeeeze, no silly comparisons to Rome of all countries. Why not the Tang dynasty?
Your feeble attempts at sarcasm fall rather flat. But your central point "don't compare USA to Rome" holds true as long as you only focus on the most superficial levels. What's at stake is the implosion of a centripetal geopolitical power center. In that respect, there's plenty to compare and contrast, lot of similarities as well as distinctions.
Ridiculing any and all discussion is typical of those who laugh at ZH. I take it as a compliment to be laughed at by half wits.
You can really tell when ZH is getting squeezed on their long GC contracts.
GC or...PC?
Uhhh... snobbery much?
What's with the "college educated" qualifier? Are the college educated the only important people... the only ones who really matter? Is unemployment a mere trifle for those without college?
If the unemployment rate for the non-college-educated hits 60%, the ownership, government, and management classes of this nation will be swinging from lamp posts... violence will happen long before the college boys and girls hit 1/4 of that.
America's underclass is a hopeless mess and will starve rather than rebel.
I'm just worried that when our college-uneducated finally rebel, they'll look for a Hitler.
I already think Petraeus is waiting in the wings. (You're telling me the Rolling Stone thing was off the cuff??).
Only 28% of American adults have a college degree. If you see the other 72% as just an "underclass", well... you've just illustrated a major part of America's decline. The leaders of a nation cannot treat 70+% of the population as somehow "lesser"... not if they want a healthy democracy.
And tell me... just what has Petraeus done to make you think he might be an American Hitler? Just what characteristics would be too Hitleresque for you?
Unfortunately, a significant portion of the US population (around 40%) functions at or below a grade 8 level of education. They cannot read bus schedules, cannot add or subtract without a calculator, and are so singularly ignorant that they cannot find Iraq on a map, despite many years of conflict and occupation. A republican form of government requires an informed polity; illiteracy is a significant reason why we are in such dire economic straits. BTW, didn't Rome popularise Bread and Circuses, and America merely adapt same for modern circumstances?
That is a known phenomenon called "learned helplessness". A certain percentage of any population will degrade down to (or fail to grow above) the lowest level of functionality that a nanny state will accept. If the nanny state stops enabling this low functionality level most folks will grow in competence.
In short... they exist because the state encourages it. So, is it an intended or unintended consequence? To my eyes it looks purposeful.
Unfortunately, a significant portion of the US population (around 40%) functions at or below a grade 8 level of education. They cannot read bus schedules, cannot add or subtract without a calculator, and are so singularly ignorant that they cannot find Iraq on a map, despite many years of conflict and occupation. A republican form of government requires an informed polity; illiteracy is a significant reason why we are in such dire economic straits. BTW, didn't Rome popularise Bread and Circuses, and America merely adapt same for modern circumstances?
What utility does someone with no education provide? The World population is presently 6.8 billion, there are many people who can do work that requires no education. Let's not forget they will do it much cheaper as well, does it matter if a Vietnamese woman operates the machinery in Ho Chi Minh City?
Please stop conflating education with useful skills. The trend of America over the past 5 decades has been to do this... much to our detriment.
We need to re-establish strong vocational programs in all of our high schools again. We've should stop funneling everyone onto the college track and we've gotta stop pretending that a college degree, specifically in the humanities and so-called soft "sciences", is anything more than parroting back the not-necessarily-true bleatings of a tweed-wrapped ex-parrot.
Engineering, math, comp. sci., physics, etc. are all great, but let's face it... most of college is nowhere near as factual, grounded, or useful as those.
I have a number of friends who are carpenters, machinists, mechanics (of all sorts), plumbers, pipefitters, etc.
We are in Texas and they are experiencing a hard time finding work. 3 years ago, they could pick and choose their employer. Now, while they are still able to find work, it is far more difficult and time consuming.
Drive down one of the streets in this tiny town and you will find great numbers of people sitting on the stoop, drinking a beer and watching the world go by at 9:00 AM.
Seems pretty obvious to me. There are those who will, through determination and hard work, weather any storm our illustrious elite can throw at them. Then there are those who will either die on the vine or attempt to survive by taking what they need.
There is no attractive outcome. None of my friends are trigger happy but they can shoot well and have guns and if pressed, they will use them.
Don't think that a lack of a degree is equivalent to lack of intelligence. These people are smart and are preparing for an uncertain future.
I'm not saying they lack useful skills, I'm saying that their skills are rather easy to attain and literally billions can do what they do.
What? You mean McCrystal?
"I'm just worried that when our college-uneducated finally rebel, they'll look for a Hitler."
Don't. They're anarchic pacifist's who run to the air conditioning and mommy's bosum after throwing a rock throgh a banks window. Petulant spoiled children.
Who in your opinion has done the most damage to our country...the military or politicians?
Just askin.
You apparently have not met the same underclass that I have.
HINT: if you are posting here, and this whole ball of wax melts, the underclass most likely shall eat you alive.
That's certainly a superficial opinion, and ignorant as well.
Rome actually did have a middle class at one point. I would argue that one of the reasons why it fell was in large part due to its destruction, particularly during the Crisis of the Third Century.
Before you go about accusing people of being "stupid and ignorant", you might want to look in the mirror yourself. And then read some more beyond Wikipedia.
Just read the latest biography of Constantine. The "crisis of the third century" was just part of Rome's ongoing problems with its army and its always-on-the-march society.
WHAT Roman middle class? Really? What percentage of the population? Absurd.
Truly learned people don't speak condescendingly when debating points. No one can really be sure what happened in the past. it is a dead author's view, and nothing more. Just as no one can predict the future; we can only offer our assesments of historical view.
+1, here's to civility!!!
"WHAT Roman middle class? Really? What percentage of the population? Absurd."
Oh, gosh, I dunno. Maybe the ones who helped build Rome and carry it to its prime? You are seriously mistaken if you think Rome was built by "slaves and oligarchs". Do some research, please. Jeezus, man, just look at the history of the Roman Army and its evolution.
By Constantine's time, it was too late. He, in fact, put the nail in the coffin of the former middle-class, and helped cement the foundation of serfdom for the next 1400+ years. The middle-class was decimated by that time. And that, IMHO, absolutely guaranteed the subsequent fall.
Man, this will be EASY:
It's "analysis" like this which makes people laugh at ZeroHedge and wonder if it is written by a lot of 14-year olds.
Why are you here?
Try reading a serious scholarly book on Rome--several excellent ones have recently been written.
Why deal in the recent? I gather OLD texts that are unfiltered and do not reak of revisionsm. You should try it sometime. It is rather refreshing to hear how it really was.
Rome was constantly on a war footing--a much greater percentage of its "GDP" went to the military than ours.
Have you checked the headlines on a daily basis since WWII ? We are EVERYWHERE - speaking as a vet that knows.
By the time Rome "fell" the city itself was a useless administrative center and the Empire was in fact several Empires.
Sounds like Washington, and the near split-up of our sovereign states.
Rome was constantly challenged by very violent invasions. It was Rome's extremely oppressive behavior toward its client states and outliers which made it so many constant enemies.
Rome had no 2nd ammendment, so not equal footing here. However, I *would* consider the islamic extremism today to the violent invasions of yore.
And please, no facile comparisons ("Wull, Washington's a useless administrative center, "Wull, America's got a lot of enemies, too").
Why? Did you realize that you were wrong in the prior paragraphs and wanted to change the rules? It would have been easier to delete your remarks after you realized how wrong you were, but like a typical revisionist, you want to change the rules instead.
Stop being utterly stupid and ignorant. Rome had NO middle class to speak of, it was a society of slaves and oligarchs.
You have no understanding of history.
You wanna compare it to American suburbia?? Hilarious and utterly absurd.
Now, America may well "collapse." As a matter of fact, do wake me up when college-educated unemployment in America reaches 60%.
You can't have it both ways. Make a cogent argument and stick to it, instead of taking all sides to (zero) hedge your bets.
But puleeeeeze, no silly comparisons to Rome of all countries. Why not the Tang dynasty?
Because that is not the topic of discussion. Next!
Rome was never extinguished. Her genius has been carried over the ages and oceans to every land. Her language has evolved into English.
Today she is called Europe. She is a beauty whose necklace is the Rhine-Danube and whose crown is the Arctic and whose jewels are ten thousand cities full of ancient monuments. She possesses industry and art and voices that have been summoned from every corner of the planet.
Her pre-eminence is shared only by her son, a strapping war-like youth, full of lust and pride. He disdains the gnats of fear that blow this way and that around his feet. His eyes are fixed on the stars that alone measure his still-unwritten destiny.
America is not defined by an event or an epoch but by the immortal spirit of her founding principles. Commenters on a blog dedicated primarily to financial considerations tend to identify America with the predicament of the moment, but those who do forget history and have been severed from their roots.
Go ahead, ponder, frown, shake your head, but do not bury America, you only belittle yourself.
No on would want America to shine as much as me. The trouble is that those in power have lost this sense. Draping yourself in a flag while screwing the nation is a practice that's been known from the beginning of time.
Narrator: In 1988, the crime rate in the United States rises four hundred percent. The once great city of New York becomes the one maximum security prison for the entire country. A fifty-foot containment wall is erected along the New Jersey shoreline, across the Harlem River, and down along the Brooklyn shoreline. It completely surrounds Manhattan Island. All bridges and waterways are mined. The United States Police Force, like an army, is encamped around the island. There are no guards inside the prison, only prisoners and the worlds they have made. The rules are simple: once you go in, you don't come out.
What flowery rubbish! As a submission to an introductory creative writing course, you may score some kudos. For those of us who need to see clearly, Europe and American are clearly in decline relative to the rest of the world. We could only wish that America was still defined by the immortal spirit of her founding principles.
Don't get it twisted here, China will be gowing through their own real estate crisis, and India's geographical demographics will nip their potential in the bud. Russia will suffer because it is surrounded by "losers" and the Middle East and Africa will never progress. Winners the next 20 years will be of slim pickings!
You write with poetic prose that is fine for those able to seperate themselves from the immediacy of these times, right now.
Everything connected in time doesn't seem so bad, and fits into a larger scheme painted with a light brush with noble colors.
When O'bama talks, he has a flair for brushing reality with this same soft stroke.
Unfortunately, for many living now, in these times, right now, the lies can't be stetched far enough to envision a healthy prosaic end for a country loved, but pitifully shamed by deceits and greed.
I don't want to debate semantics, but English is a germanic language not a romantic one...
You speak of faith....Something in very short supply on this site and in the world at large. Faith in unfashionable. Many consider it a sign of weakness or worse, a relinquishing of our autonomy.
Truth is, it works for many and was a cornerstone in the foundation of our constitution. I am not surprised you were junked. People are not too comfortable with the topic.
I believe faith can influence any outcome and I believe that the USA holds a special place for the "Higher Power" but we have discovered that selfishness can be soooo gratifying.
You don't have to believe in God. You only need to remember you are not Him/Her....
Rome was sacked in 410 AD by Alaric the Red and his army of Visigoths. This was the first time Rome had been sacked by a foreign army in about 800 years. Most accounts say that slaves opened the gate for Alaric and his men. Many accounts say that there was a minimun of murder, rape and looting (by the standards of that time) because the Visigoths had converted to Christianity. Other accounts say about half the population was murdered during the following three days of fun and games. The Roman biggies had previously decamped for safer areas just like the Bush family that has recently bought up huge lots of land in South America. Too bad about us stay behind peasants.
Duplicate
Well those in power are banging boys. Page boys anyway. Or trying to pick up dudes in MPLS airport bathrooms. Or depends on what you read in the news in the 80's about Barney Frank too I suppose. What are our olives and grapes?
Rome was a city-state with a centralist, oligarchical hierarchy, that controlled and added to it's territorial apitite through military conquest. The problem being that as the empire grew so did the size of the military to extend that centralist control.
Rome found some relief from the shortage of Roman soldiers by hiring mercenaries - Blackwater'? These same merc's were at the center of holding Rome hostage when their pay was not forth coming in the form of 'tangible' wealth. These for 'hire' soldiers were not interested in being paid in lead or tin tokens.
As a lesson from history, what would transpire when the mercs that America has in her employ (see "Secret America - Her Mercenaries.") get paid with worthless paper script (FRNs) when the bottom falls out of the dollar? Make no mistake, the size of the mercenary force that is in America's employ is huge.
Just saying - one small coinkydink with what could happen as in Rome.
Atia of the Julii: [to Cleopatra] Die screaming, you pig spawn trollop.
We can learn meaningful lessons from history but we can't compare apple with orange.
Tyler,
So much for transparency.
Under a little-noticed provision of the recently passed financial-reform legislation, the Securities and Exchange Commission
no longer has to comply with virtually all requests for information releases from the public, including those filed under the Freedom of Information Act.
The law, signed last week by President Obama, exempts the SEC from disclosing records or information derived from "surveillance, risk assessments, or other regulatory and oversight activities." Given that the SEC is a regulatory body, the provision covers almost every action by the agency, lawyers say. Congress and federal agencies can request information, but the public cannot.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2010/07/28/sec-says-new-finreg-law-ex...
Mmm...mmm...mmm.
During US history, the socio-economic contract was frequently re-negotiated as a result of crises in order to create a "more perfect union". Hence Jeffersonian and Jacksonian democracy, Manifest Destiny, The Missouri Compromise, The Civil War, The Square Deal, The New Deal, The New Frontier, The Great Society, Watergate and Reaganism The trouble is that, as a nation, there's a greater desire to cling to the past and not adapt policy to conform to new realities. THe longer and further we drift off course, the more difficult it will become to fix problems down the road. Clinging is a sign of a power in decline.
Best horse opera ever made.
America will find a solution. Don't worry.
Well, that's good enough for me! I wonder whether I can fit an iPad on my VISA card.
i've always wondered though - if you ran the world's biggest fiat money system ever, and you knew it would all eventually fall, wouldn't it make more sense go out as the world's biggest debtor ?
Shop bitchez!
A+
Not just here...all fiat money systems.
It is what it is.
Sure but only if you bought and built the right stuff with your debt. Sort of like how bankruptcy attorneys in the past would advise clients to buy new cars, paint or repair their houses, etc...before filing.
But when you buy cheap Chinese crap laden with toxins, well, not so much.
This is why I give Bernanke a little slack. He inherited a total nightmare nearly impossible to fix. So of course his best option is to lie about the pink elephant in the middle of the room and resort to shady dealings with the BIS and other central banks.
I hope you don't mind a few edits...
He was hired for this total nightmare nearly impossible to fix. So of course his only option is to lie about the pink elephant in the middle of the room and do shady dealings with the BIS and other central banks. This is why I give Bernanke no slack.
All Empires fall sooner ot later. We humans need to learn...
Back to simple.
"And the great owners, who must lose their land in an upheaval, the great owners with access to history, with eyes to read history and to know the great fact: when property accumulates in too few hands it is taken away. And that companion fact: when a majority of the people are hungry and cold they will take by force what they need. And the little screaming fact that sounds through all history: repression works only to strengthen and knit the repressed."
- John Steinbeck, The Grapes of Wrath, Chapter 19
Just look around at what has become popular in the US, from both a personal entertainment and a government policy perspective. I've been thinking for some time that it's all just "bread and circuses." That parallel to the Empire seems pretty clear.
I've heard it said that in a nation on the rise, the masses emulate those financially above themselves; in a nation in decline, they copy those below.
I'm starting to think there's a greater truth in that.
with two differences - the world reserve currency, and the ability to use soft and hard power around the globe at an instant.
We've got serious structural problems, but so does everyone else. What they haven't got is a CBG in every sea and ocean in the world.
I love doomsday threads. They rock! I have not been this entertained since 24 ended. Thank you to the board. A thousand thank yous!
Here's some good doomsday porn.
http://www.infowars.com/the-year-america-dissolved/
You should be here when the European posters get goin on the Joo's, Virginian's and muslim aerial acrobatics around NYC ;-)
The only thing better is a 2 foot hole in the seafloor that could develop into the Grand Canyon of the Gulf of Mexico requiring mass evacuations of the SE just before a thermo nuclear device is detonated to seal the deal...ROTFL
Good stuff regarding financials...just beware of the brown blotter ;-)
[Antony screams in rage, and proceeds to beat the Clerk to death with the scroll. He looks up and finds the Senate completely empty.]
The economy will implode but the foolish idea the US will split up is too stupid to respond to.
I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss this possibility. It may happen that citizens of certain states get so fed up with federal corruption and incompetence that they decide to secede.
Leaders come and go in this country. I don't any chance of a state leaving... because of Obama...not unless he became a dictator.
Political Entities come and go, I have a globe from the 80s. Many of those countries no longer exist.
Suisse
All things must pass
For more analysis as to why this descent to a Dark Age will be worse, check out Thomas Home Dixon's, The Upside of Down. He explicitly examines Rome versus the US, in bio-political terms.
The other element that differed somewhat from ancient Rome, making this disintegration worse, are the ecological consequences.
Rome essentially converted current sunlight (from agriculture) into gold. Parts of the Empire seemed to enjoy a soft implosion, while others faced harsh natural limits. Arizona versus, say the Northeast, maybe?
Still I agree with the other poster, the US will not be shattered, just our power as the superpower.
Obama as Caligula!
Caesar: You are a thief. A foolish, incompetent thief. But we will treat your foolishness as some species of loyalty.
Caligula declares himself a god.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NJvVEt6F_Xw
Hah!! Made me have a coffee snort!!
the roman empire collapsed because they flavored their wine with lead powder to make it taste sweeter, which led to an epidemic of poisoning and mental retardation amongst members of the ruling classes. this was the catalyst for the empire's collapse.
today most wines are made with minimal chemical inputs and sustainable farming methods.
So there is no comparision
insert smiley here
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It should be known that whomever is found to have stolen the wealth of the U.S. and anywhere else will be tracked down. There should be no-where to hide on the planet, where they will be safe to spend their ill-gotten gains.
We need to make a pact, a blood-oath, with our fellow citizens of the world, to make this so.
There, I just cut my hand open, the blood drips, the pact is sealed.
just back from a trip to canada and france; i would say the analogy is closer to the collapse of the Byzantine Empire than the collapse of Rome.
More on the US Mint. ZH, you guys covered this over a year ago.
http://www.roadtoroota.com/public/330.cfm
buffalos bitches
There should be 400 years of orgies first.
I'll vote for that :-)
Collapse of the Tang Dynasty. Is that Spoon Tang?
Collapse of the Tang Dynasty. Is that Spoon Tang?
organicfarmer
Pootie Tang: Kapa-Chow.
No, Poon Tang.
Rome, though, lacked a mechanism for renewal until it was too late - we have ours. Lets see both what happens in November and if that comes out as more and more are expecting, lets see if the new crop has learned anything, at all, before we start writing obituaries for what Washington, Jefferson and Lincoln built.
https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Jesusland_map
The meme is in the form of a map of the U.S. and Canada which depicts a new hypothetical national border between the two countries. The "blue states" from the 2004 election have been merged with Canada to form a single contiguous nation, which is labeled the "United States of Canada." The remaining "red states" are labeled as "Jesusland". The Freakonomics blog opined that the map reflected the "despair, division, and bitterness" of the 2004 election.[3]
People don't even know why their dick hangs to the right or left side. Does anybody really believe they know why the reasons why a multi-century empire falls?
Rome as a model for the collapse of the US?
I'll believe the end is near when I see some concrete evidence of it.
Otherwise, it's just a bunch of armchair spunk artists - pundits.
More documentation of the present Thelma and Louise plan of the ruling elites: laugh while driving us all off a cliff, hoping like hell the bottom isn't closer than it may really appear.
Slow-mo-train wreck. Could this be "To Obvilian & Beyond"?
Let's get the fuck started, shall we? Reintroduce some real conversation into this blog. Let me tell you, all you self-congratulatory stuffed shirts, that this shit will be sticking all over YOU when the time comes. So you think you are not involved? So you think that the little people don't know what is coming?
If you don't have your new mansion built in Panama or Costa Rica by now, you may get stuck inside the boarders when the Martial Law get rolling. These combat fucktards are not going to be asking you how much you make when they kick in your door.
The sensible people in the USA are digging in. They've got food, ammo, seeds, and barter communities in place. The people who sit around watching Dancing with the Stars and don't have a clue probably aren't going to make it.
The rest of us enlightened, but destitute, are down here in Latin America taking new jobs and kicking back after a days work.
yeah the US definitely locked in for a collapse re: rome
but it's china that could go all roman bust style in the near term, ref:
China's reverse situation when inflation (like 2007) kicks in on food over there and the housing bust etc
"According to Rostovtzeff and Mises, artificially low prices led to the scarcity of foodstuffs, particularly in cities, whose inhabitants depended on trade to obtain them. Despite laws passed to prevent migration from the cities to the countryside, urban areas gradually became depopulated and many Roman citizens abandoned their specialized trades to practice subsistence agriculture. This, coupled with increasingly oppressive and arbitrary taxation, led to a severe net decrease in trade, technical innovation, and the overall wealth of the empire.[8]"
and
China is one polluted dump with toxic foods etc
"The ancient Romans, who had few sweeteners besides honey, would boil must in lead pots to produce a reduced sugar syrup called defrutum, concentrated again into sapa. This syrup was used to sweeten wine and food.[16] This boiling of acidic must within lead vessels yields a sweet syrup containing Pb(C2H3O2)2 or lead(II) acetate.[16] Lead was also leached from the glazes on amphora and from pewter drinking vessels.[17]
The main culinary use of defrutum was to sweeten wine, but it was also added to fruit and meat dishes as a sweetening and souring agent and even given to food animals such as suckling pig and duck to improve the taste of their flesh. Defrutum was mixed with garum to make the popular condiment oenogarum and as such was one of Rome's most popular condiments. Quince and melon were preserved in defrutum and honey through the winter, and some Roman women used defrutum or sapa as a cosmetic. Defrutum was often used as a food preservative in provisions for Roman troops.[18]"
BTW, the US has been bankrupt since 1933. Any debt notes can be discharged with your own signature. So why all the uproar? 35 countries have repudiated the fraudulent IMF bank loans. Who gives a crap? The IMF by itself doesn't have any power.
BTW, the US has been bankrupt since 1933. Any debt notes can be discharged with your own signature. So why all the uproar? 35 countries have repudiated the fraudulent IMF bank loans. Who gives a crap? The IMF by itself doesn't have any power.
Ammo and Gold Bitchez!
Check, and, Check.
The desintegration of Poland after the so called "Deluge" in the XVIIth Century is a better historical analogy to the decline and fall of the American Empire.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deluge_%28history%29
The system of private monopoly of state financing was perfected in Poland then, and has been the weapon of choice of our ruling central banking cryptocracy since.
Like in Poland, there will be an uprising and the backlash will be harsh. The only question is who will be the American Khmelnytsky.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khmelnytsky_Uprising
This excellent podcast explains the Fall of Poland:
http://reasonradionetwork.com/?p=8437
Cossacks, bitchez!