Jim Rogers Comments On Triple Digit Silver And Issues Warning: "Parabolic Moves Always Collapse"

Tyler Durden's picture

Jim Rogers commented on the recent move by the University of Texas to take delivery of $1 billion in gold, saying the decision is long overdue, and has only occurred because everyone else is now buying thereby taking metal out of circulation. He adds: "But where were these guys five, ten years ago?  That’s when they should have been doing all of this." Indeed the momentum chasers never show up until it's too late. Then Rogers had some words of caution for silver bulls: "If silver continues to go up like it has been over the past 2 or 3
weeks, yes, then it would get to triple digits this year.  And then
we’ll have to worry.  It’s not parabolic yet.  I hope something stops it
going up in the foreseeable future and we have a correction. " There is one caveat: "maybe the US dollar is going to become confetti in 2011, and if
that’s the case and silver goes to $150, then obviously I wouldn’t sell
my silver.  It would be the US dollar which is collapsing.  But if
silver goes up the way you’re talking about without currency collapse, I
would be very worried." So as usual, those long Precious Metals should not hate the Chairsatan but to urge him on to continue doing what he is doing so well: converting that once valuable combination of 75% cotton and 25% linen into "confetti."

From Financial Survival Radio

Financial Survival Radio:  We just read that the second-largest university investment fund here in the US is buying physical gold.  The University of Texas, which is where I live, is putting aside $1B worth of gold in a New York vault.  Some have called this move a tipping point for the precious metals market.  Do you agree?

Jim Rogers:  Well, tipping point?  Gold’s been going up for ten years in a row.  I’d hardly call this a tipping point.  Silver’s been skyrocketing…

FSR:  Maybe a tipping point where we see more institutional mainstream demand.

JR:  Well, again, that has been happening.  If suddenly all the pension funds wake up and say, I’ve got to own gold, they may start thinking about it more and more.  But the thing that’s been getting people’s attention is the fact that gold has been going up so much.  That’s the wrong way to invest.  Look, I own gold.  I own silver.  But where were these guys five, ten years ago?  That’s when they should have been doing all of this.  Unfortunately for all of us, most investors don’t notice something until there’s a good, nice bull market in place, such as with gold and silver.  After ten years of price rises in gold, people are starting to notice.  That’s what they’re noticing more than the fact that the University of Texas is buying gold.  I’m glad they did, I own gold.  And yes, there will be more people buying gold.  Eventually, everybody’s going to be owning gold, and then we’ll all have to sell our gold.  But that’s a long way from now.

FSR:  Silver in particular has been of great interest to my family.  It looks like $50 silver is going to happen very soon.  But Jim, will we see a triple-digit silver price in 2011?

JR:  If it does, we’ll all have to sell, because then you’ve got a bubble, a parabolic move and all parabolic moves end badly.  I certainly hope it doesn’t happen because I own silver and want to buy more.  My hope is, silver and gold and all commodities will continue to go up in an orderly way for another ten years or so, and eventually the prices will be very, very high.  Yes, we’ll have triple-digit silver, but if it happens this year, Jay, I would probably start to think about selling.

FSR:  But what we’ve seen so far, you wouldn’t consider parabolic?

JR:  No, not yet.  But I’m worried about silver.  If silver continues to go up like it has been over the past 2 or 3
weeks, yes, then it would get to triple digits this year.  And then
we’ll have to worry.  It’s not parabolic yet.  I hope something stops it
going up in the foreseeable future and we have a correction.  There’s never one in history that hasn’t popped. 

Now, maybe the US dollar is going to become confetti in 2011, and if that’s the case and silver goes to $150, then obviously I wouldn’t sell my silver.  It would be the US dollar which is collapsing.  But if silver goes up the way you’re talking about without currency collapse, I would be very worried.

FSR:  So that’s the bottom line, those who have been holding on to precious metals for the long term need to watch where the Dollar is to decide whether it’s time to sell.

JR:  That’s certainly part of it, yes.  And you have to watch the price action.  I remember when gold went parabolic in 1980.  I shorted gold when it went parabolic in 1980, and it went higher for another two weeks after I shorted it. But it eventually collapsed.  Silver eventually collapsed.  All parabolic moves throughout history, there’s never been a parabolic move which hasn’t collapsed in any asset. 

Silver and gold, yes, will be a bubble someday, Jay.  There’s no question in my mind that all commodities will be a huge bubble someday.  But I don’t think that bubble is going to happen in 2011.  I think it’s going to be more likely 2017, or 2018…you know, a few years from now.  I’m not picking a year, just saying it’s a few years away.  It could happen sooner, but I hope not.

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Silver, bitchez!!

The Count's picture

do you feel better now that you were finally the first to post that?


Mark McGoldrick's picture

I must say, I'm still very intrigued by the Crash JP Morgue hoopla - whatever happened to that?  If Crash JP Morgue was made into a movie, it would be called, The Bad News Bears invade Wall Street. (Pardon the multiple puns). 


Last November and December, as silver busted through $25 and $30, everyone at ZeroHedge was congratulating themselves for having "busted" Blythe.  The atmosphere was very festive here, like a victory celebration. Members were congratulating each other for having purchased several rolls of silver dollars, and were giving hourly updates on coin stock at their local coin store. Some even compared it to a long, hard-fought battle.   

After looking into JPM's 1Q earnings last week, it would appear the rising price of silver has had little to no effect on them.  In fact, they just reported a 67% increase in profits and their stock is within 7% of its 52w high. 


Furthermore, since this article pertains to Jim Rogers, here he is dismissing those silver conspiracy theories. He says he's heard the same thing for decades, and puts little stock into them.  


So....  what the fuck is up with Crash JP Morgue? Was that all a farce? Does anyone know of any silver ETFs or IPOs that would have benefited from all the hype?




Mark McGoldrick's picture

You know who else is winning?

Lean Hogs:


Why aren't people talking about hogs?  Compared to silver in the same period of time, the percentage move is greater.

Anyone know if there is a Crash Smithfield Foods conspiracy floating around?

sun tzu's picture

It's easier to invest in physical silver than physical lean hogs. 

narapoiddyslexia's picture

Speaking of hogs, why aren't there any co-sponsors for this bill?


I thought there were some revolutionaries elected to this Congress.

jeff montanye's picture

the mistake we will make is selling too soon.

Diogenes's picture

There is an old anecdote about one of the Rothschilds answering a question by a dinner companion, concerning investments. He said " I have a simple method that never fails. I never buy at the bottom, and I always sell too soon. I find as long as I do that, I cannot help making money".

Bicycle Repairman's picture

Rodgers appears to miss two important items:

1.  The manipulation of silver by shorts.

2. China and India.

4xaddict's picture

yep, I'm sure Jim hasn't considered either of those issues............... sorry for the troll but seriously?

FEDbuster's picture

Jim Rodgers doesn't miss much.  I am sure he is aware of everything affecting the value of commodities (you don't become a multi-millionaire/billionaire? trading commodities because you're lucky).  He has seen many commodity cycles and knows this one is no different.  Remember he goes long and short and makes money both ways.  Jim is a VERY smart trader.

I always wonder how high a commodity can go above it's cost of production.  Gold is currently about three times the cost of production, silver is roughly five times it's cost of production.  Demand is driving prices higher, along with weak currencies and low interest rates. 

Real estate is now selling at a discount to actual construction costs in many areas (the lot has zero value), very light demand and historically low interest rates.  Real estate's negatives are that it must be maintained, it's not portable (like gold) and you become a target for the taxman.  Real estate has been a traditional hedge for inflation, and is now selling at a deep discount to production cost.  I sure would like to hear Jim Rodgers opinion on this subject.  Of course the exception is the price of farm land which continues to rise.

Hephasteus's picture

This is actually a reply to mark mcgoldrik.

Ya JP morgan is reporting larger incomes and big gains. So is intel and apple and bunch of other people. That's why silver war is winning. It's ballooning the liars out of their hidey holes.

Really RECORD profits during a downturn? Really. Nobody trusts JP Morgan and yet they keep making records.

It's taking thieves and ponzi scammers and turning up the water on them till they either jump out or boil.

It's just taking thier natural illegal tendencies and distoring the porporations of it till it becomes in your face obvious to more and more people. The super suspcious see it. The slightly suspicious people start seeing it, then the don't care either way then the total faith and trust crowd finally loses it.

OldTrooper's picture

Correct in all respects.  I have a hell of a time getting hogs to stay in my closet!

nmewn's picture

I've been known to offer my coins corn to fatten them up a bit...they won't even sniff it...so I suppose I should be glad for the coin I save on feed ;-)

tiger7905's picture

The cost of storage and maintenance is much higher also, just sayin.

DosZap's picture

Which?, PM's or HOGS?.

chinaguy's picture

Word; I make Nduja, Salami, proscitto, coppa etc. the price of good pork is through the roof.

uraniuman's picture

None of my safes hold 10000 lean hogs

AK338WM's picture

Hogs stink to high hell.  Trust me I know.

MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

Why aren't people talking about hogs?

You can put lipstick on a hog but that doesn't mean JRR Tolkien is gonna write a book about it.

flattrader's picture

>>>Why aren't people talking about hogs?"

Because about 95% of the people who post here are talking pigs.

Swine who live in glass pig pens shouldn't throw stones.

And don't fuck with the price of BBQ.

mark mchugh's picture

Here's a list of companies that seemed to be humming along just fine in recent years:


Bear Stearns

Washington Mutual





......JPM appears to be humming along just fine, don't they?

Hulk's picture

and they all passed stress tests Frankenstein!

Hephasteus's picture

They invented the stress tests.

Found the goldman stress test white papers and downloads on zdnet a few years back.

Backspin's picture

I hear you Mark McG.  I have a friend who used to be involved with a large commodity trading firm, and he told me that there is no way that the average Joe on the net knows what, if any, JPM's short position in silver might be.  He thinks it's all hype.

So all the people buying silver based on that, are doing the right thing (buying silver) but for the wrong reason.

I buy silver for two reasons:

1.  It's real money and they can't print it.

2.  It has industry demand and is being depleted.

Very simple.


Bay of Pigs's picture

Yeah, listen to the PM douche McGoldrick.

Hype? Butler has only followed this topic for over 20 years and GATA over ten. Get up to speed.

mspgrandi's picture


2 reasons simple...


I really dont see the point of making JPM collapse..Dimon owns hundreds millions of asset.. teh only person that will suffer from JPM collapse is joe the plumber (in addition we will all pick up the bailout bill)


  I agree with Jim Rogers.... We have something to worry about when Ag. makes  triple digits by the year end.... IF THE DOLLAR IS STILL ALIVE however, the dollar is currently falling as silver rises..... We can't continue to believe that China, India and every other nation has not come to realize that the comex  can't deliver and WILL DEFAULT..... They aren't the dumb backward nations we once thought they were.... I firmly believe that these nations, especially China is giving geitner, bernanke and the president enough rope to carry out the inevitable execution of the dollar..... If there is anyone out there who believes the dollar will survive SELL your PM's now and buy lean HOGS.... I see some are worried about having to bailout dimon's jp morgan bullion  bank... Not to worry.... dimon's bank can't be bailed out w/useless paper and debased coinage..... I respect Jim Rogers and I understand that he did not get where he is  by making mistakes ( his greatest financial decison was packing up, getting OUT of the U.S. before the shit hits the fan, moving to Singapore where all the power will soon be.......... If he thought the U.S. Economy / dollar would be around for much longer he never would have left so QUICKLY...... Who should we blame for this current mess? Obama? bush? Clinton? I say NO! I say Hell NO! The winner of the dumb fuck award goes to woodrow wilson for allowing the rothchilds to take control of Our Nation almost 100 years ago. Not unlike a tsunami beginning with a small wave thousands of miles away, is what we can compare woodrow wilson's sellout to the rothchilds central bank. His name should be wiped from history of the U.S. and placed in Websters Dictionary defining DUMBFUCK SELLOUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

                                                                    Silence Doogood

mr66's picture

I agree.  the JP Morgue are a bunch of scumbags and would love to see them tank, but on a point and figure chart, there is no short squeeze over there as the px. has not shown a triple bottom breakdown

mr66's picture

I agree.  the JP Morgue are a bunch of scumbags and would love to see them tank, but on a point and figure chart, there is no short squeeze over there as the px. has not shown a triple bottom breakdown

bankrupt JPM buy silver's picture

Silver should already be $110 in infaltion adjusted terms.  This is rediculous.  Anyone accepting $50/oz for their physical is a complete fuckjob.



sun tzu's picture

Spot is $47 so I would sell at $50 and buy back at $48

DosZap's picture

If your dealer is selling you at $47.00 spot, does it hurt when you sit?.

Since the Spot I see is just pushing $44.71.

SparkyvonBellagio's picture

There were 615 on this map  yesterday, now 698. Hang on, grab some railing. This might get busy in a hurry.

Also Nevada is in a quake storm which is 'odd' to say the least.




Unless a Cascade Mega-Thruster hits before California's.

A Cascadian quake is much worse unless it all unzips together down to Mexico.

bulldung's picture

Interesting, looks like small quakes happen all the time; guess you need to know the delta to make anything of it.

PY-129-20's picture

No wonder. The fiat money is dying everywhere on the planet - but isn't it ironic that a country named ARGENT-INA is facing hyperinflation...


DosZap's picture

Talk about a screwed up political system...sheesh, they make us look good.

dlmaniac's picture

Somewhere around 50/oz it should correct, and that's about the time Fed will (pretend to) end their lavish credits injection plan.

SRSrocco's picture

Silver has been held down for over 4 decades.  Take a look at the 10 year averages of silver and gold over the past 40 years:


SILVER 1971-1980 = $6.80 avg. price

SILVER 1981-1990 = $6.85 avg. price

SILVER 1991-2000 = $4.88 avg. price

SILVER 2001-2010 =$10.25 avg. price


GOLD 1971-1980 = $190.15 avg. price

GOLD 1981-1990 = $395.38 avg. price

GOLD 1991-2000 = $340.48 avg. price

GOLD 2001-2010 = $616.53 avg. price



During the 1970-80 period the average decade price of silver was $6.80.  The next decade it was only 5 cents more at $6.85.  Gold on the other hand had a decade average price of $190.15 from 1979-1980 , but more than doubled to $395.38 the following decade. 

If we compare both metals, we find that silver went up from $6.80 to $10.25, or 50.7% in 4 decades, whereas gold went from $190.15 to $616.53, or 228% in the same time period.  This is why we are finally witnessing the parabolic move in silver.


Many analysts are saying that silver is in a parabolic speculative bubble.  If we look at Silver Eagle Sales over the past 10 years we find that demand has picked up recently, but it is not in a bubble:


2001 = 8,827,500
2002 = 10,475,000
2003 = 9,153,500
2004 = 9,617,000
2005 = 8,405,000
2006 = 10,021,000
2007 = 9,887,000
2008 = 19,583,000
2009 = 28,766,500
2010 = 34,662,500
2011 = 14,508,500 (April)

Already we see 14.5 million silver eagle sales in 2011.  If sales continue there should be over 40 million sales this year.  There are 307 million people in the United States.  Not all silver eagles are sold to just Americans but if they were and if we stated that only half or 160 million would be able to buy silver eagles, that is ONE LOUSY SILVER EAGLE for every 4 people.

This does not seem like a bubble.  Back in 1999 when Tech stocks were the big thing, grandmothers got together to discuss what stocks to buy.  Less than 1% of Americans hold silver as an investment.

To those ANAL-ISTS who think silver is in a bubble, you may need to get your head examined.  Silver has been kept artificially low for decades and is now finally showing its true SHINNY COLOR.

Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture


"parabolic moves always collapse"

does that hold true when something has been artificially parabolically suppressed for many years

Hephasteus's picture

Parabolic moves always collapse. But if you look at a silver chart. It's showing a 45 degree bull market grind. The only strange thing about it is that it's not backstepping. It's a nearly perfect relentless grind. It's got a strange overpower inevitability behind it.

DosZap's picture

The private mint coins sold, and bars, make the US Mint look like a weak sister.

Multiply those Eagle #'s, times about 10,000 and you may be close.And that's just the US.

The Pac Rims, cannot get enough, here there is no real shortage to individual buyers.

But we are (goody) back in backwardation again.

KTV Escort's picture

should gold grind on up to $1650 per oz and silver attain the proverbial GSR of 16:1 that would put silver at $103... triple digits, yet not an issue IMO ~ I see it plateau at that point, not collapse, or slowly move higher from there

KTV Escort's picture

silver is, after all, the superman of metals, with growing industrial uses...

Silver has the highest electrical and thermal conductivity of all metals. Every computer, server, monitor, cell phone and switch must have silver. Lasers, satellites, solar panels, high-tech weaponry (tomahawk cruise missiles use 500 oz) and robotics, all require silver. Digital technology and telecommunications need silver. There's silver in every TV, washing machine, wall switch and refrigerator. Conductors, switches, contacts and fuses use silver because it does not corrode or cause overheating and fires. Silver is used heavily in photography and in prints. Batteries are now manufactured with silver alloys. Lead-free silver solder is used heavily for joining materials and producing leak-tight joints. Silver is also widely used in silk-screened circuit paths, membrane switches, electrically heated automobile windows, and adhesives.

Silver achieves the most brilliant polish of any metal and has the highest reflectivity of light of all the metals, allowing it to be used in mirrors and in coatings for glass, cellophane or metals. Double layers of silver on glass reflects away 95% of the hot rays of the sun. Silver has a variety of uses in pharmaceuticals as silver kills bacteria. Hospitals use silver coated devices in surgery to eliminate contamination and infection. Skin care products now use colloidal silver as it has been found to be a healing agent and disinfectant. Silver sulfadiazine is the most powerful compound for burn treatment. Catheters impregnated with silver eliminate bacteria. Silver is increasingly being tapped for water purification, silver ions used in pools and spas. To prevent growth of germs and fungus on surfaces silver ions are used in paints and coatings.

Plus, the unique properties of silver restrict its substitution in most applications.


DoChenRollingBearing's picture

FOFOA (fofoa.blogspot.com) makes the case (and old English economists he quotes) that hoarding of materials needed by industry has a moral component to it, namely that hoarding food, silver, copper, etc. helps to create shortages and drives up prices.

Gold is apparently the only exception.  Hoard all you want, "industry" is not hurt.

FOFOA's eloquence and logic are far better than mine.

Shell Game's picture

I have enjoyed that blog (and Another's Thoughts) immensely, in fact, it convinced me to 'follow in the footsteps of giants'.

tiger7905's picture

Richard Russell is actually thinking the US might encourage gold purchases like Asia. I think he's getting old, just don't see it happening.