Jim Rogers Comments On Triple Digit Silver And Issues Warning: "Parabolic Moves Always Collapse"

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Tue, 04/19/2011 - 18:47 | 1186004 PSEUDOLOGOI
PSEUDOLOGOI's picture

Silver, bitchez!!

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 19:12 | 1186087 The Count
The Count's picture

do you feel better now that you were finally the first to post that?

 

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 20:12 | 1186300 Mark McGoldrick
Mark McGoldrick's picture

I must say, I'm still very intrigued by the Crash JP Morgue hoopla - whatever happened to that?  If Crash JP Morgue was made into a movie, it would be called, The Bad News Bears invade Wall Street. (Pardon the multiple puns). 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eLG11u3-dDg

Last November and December, as silver busted through $25 and $30, everyone at ZeroHedge was congratulating themselves for having "busted" Blythe.  The atmosphere was very festive here, like a victory celebration. Members were congratulating each other for having purchased several rolls of silver dollars, and were giving hourly updates on coin stock at their local coin store. Some even compared it to a long, hard-fought battle.   

After looking into JPM's 1Q earnings last week, it would appear the rising price of silver has had little to no effect on them.  In fact, they just reported a 67% increase in profits and their stock is within 7% of its 52w high. 

WTF?

Furthermore, since this article pertains to Jim Rogers, here he is dismissing those silver conspiracy theories. He says he's heard the same thing for decades, and puts little stock into them.  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FBzWanlBTe4

So....  what the fuck is up with Crash JP Morgue? Was that all a farce? Does anyone know of any silver ETFs or IPOs that would have benefited from all the hype?

 

 

 

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 20:18 | 1186312 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

WINNING!

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 20:34 | 1186359 Mark McGoldrick
Mark McGoldrick's picture

You know who else is winning?

Lean Hogs:

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=LH&p=d1

Why aren't people talking about hogs?  Compared to silver in the same period of time, the percentage move is greater.

Anyone know if there is a Crash Smithfield Foods conspiracy floating around?

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 20:40 | 1186369 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

It's easier to invest in physical silver than physical lean hogs. 

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 20:57 | 1186407 narapoiddyslexia
narapoiddyslexia's picture

Speaking of hogs, why aren't there any co-sponsors for this bill?

http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c112:H.R.1098:

I thought there were some revolutionaries elected to this Congress.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 21:35 | 1186475 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

the mistake we will make is selling too soon.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 23:00 | 1186711 Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

There is an old anecdote about one of the Rothschilds answering a question by a dinner companion, concerning investments. He said " I have a simple method that never fails. I never buy at the bottom, and I always sell too soon. I find as long as I do that, I cannot help making money".

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 05:29 | 1187221 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Rodgers appears to miss two important items:

1.  The manipulation of silver by shorts.

2. China and India.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 09:25 | 1187651 4xaddict
4xaddict's picture

yep, I'm sure Jim hasn't considered either of those issues............... sorry for the troll but seriously?

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 09:50 | 1187764 FEDbuster
FEDbuster's picture

Jim Rodgers doesn't miss much.  I am sure he is aware of everything affecting the value of commodities (you don't become a multi-millionaire/billionaire? trading commodities because you're lucky).  He has seen many commodity cycles and knows this one is no different.  Remember he goes long and short and makes money both ways.  Jim is a VERY smart trader.

I always wonder how high a commodity can go above it's cost of production.  Gold is currently about three times the cost of production, silver is roughly five times it's cost of production.  Demand is driving prices higher, along with weak currencies and low interest rates. 

Real estate is now selling at a discount to actual construction costs in many areas (the lot has zero value), very light demand and historically low interest rates.  Real estate's negatives are that it must be maintained, it's not portable (like gold) and you become a target for the taxman.  Real estate has been a traditional hedge for inflation, and is now selling at a deep discount to production cost.  I sure would like to hear Jim Rodgers opinion on this subject.  Of course the exception is the price of farm land which continues to rise.

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 04:40 | 1191584 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

This is actually a reply to mark mcgoldrik.

Ya JP morgan is reporting larger incomes and big gains. So is intel and apple and bunch of other people. That's why silver war is winning. It's ballooning the liars out of their hidey holes.

Really RECORD profits during a downturn? Really. Nobody trusts JP Morgan and yet they keep making records.

It's taking thieves and ponzi scammers and turning up the water on them till they either jump out or boil.

It's just taking thier natural illegal tendencies and distoring the porporations of it till it becomes in your face obvious to more and more people. The super suspcious see it. The slightly suspicious people start seeing it, then the don't care either way then the total faith and trust crowd finally loses it.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 21:45 | 1186512 OldTrooper
OldTrooper's picture

Correct in all respects.  I have a hell of a time getting hogs to stay in my closet!

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 21:51 | 1186530 nmewn
nmewn's picture

I've been known to offer my coins corn to fatten them up a bit...they won't even sniff it...so I suppose I should be glad for the coin I save on feed ;-)

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 21:59 | 1186561 tiger7905
tiger7905's picture

The cost of storage and maintenance is much higher also, just sayin.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 06:57 | 1187304 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Which?, PM's or HOGS?.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 20:57 | 1186411 chinaguy
chinaguy's picture

Word; I make Nduja, Salami, proscitto, coppa etc. the price of good pork is through the roof.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 21:09 | 1186436 uraniuman
uraniuman's picture

None of my safes hold 10000 lean hogs

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 21:34 | 1186474 AK338WM
AK338WM's picture

Hogs stink to high hell.  Trust me I know.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 21:35 | 1186482 fuu
fuu's picture

Yes.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 02:35 | 1187113 MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

Why aren't people talking about hogs?

You can put lipstick on a hog but that doesn't mean JRR Tolkien is gonna write a book about it.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 10:53 | 1188069 flattrader
flattrader's picture

>>>Why aren't people talking about hogs?"

Because about 95% of the people who post here are talking pigs.

Swine who live in glass pig pens shouldn't throw stones.

And don't fuck with the price of BBQ.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 21:34 | 1186478 mark mchugh
mark mchugh's picture

Here's a list of companies that seemed to be humming along just fine in recent years:

Countrywide

Bear Stearns

Washington Mutual

Lehman

AIG

Citigroup

Wachovia

......JPM appears to be humming along just fine, don't they?

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 23:41 | 1186834 Hulk
Hulk's picture

and they all passed stress tests Frankenstein!

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 01:56 | 1187078 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

They invented the stress tests.

Found the goldman stress test white papers and downloads on zdnet a few years back.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 21:39 | 1186486 Backspin
Backspin's picture

I hear you Mark McG.  I have a friend who used to be involved with a large commodity trading firm, and he told me that there is no way that the average Joe on the net knows what, if any, JPM's short position in silver might be.  He thinks it's all hype.

So all the people buying silver based on that, are doing the right thing (buying silver) but for the wrong reason.

I buy silver for two reasons:

1.  It's real money and they can't print it.

2.  It has industry demand and is being depleted.

Very simple.

 

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 22:18 | 1186536 Bay of Pigs
Bay of Pigs's picture

Yeah, listen to the PM douche McGoldrick.

Hype? Butler has only followed this topic for over 20 years and GATA over ten. Get up to speed.

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 07:59 | 1187438 mspgrandi
mspgrandi's picture

perfect...

2 reasons simple...

 

I really dont see the point of making JPM collapse..Dimon owns hundreds millions of asset.. teh only person that will suffer from JPM collapse is joe the plumber (in addition we will all pick up the bailout bill)

Thu, 04/21/2011 - 23:55 | 1195243 SILENCE DOOGOOD
SILENCE DOOGOOD's picture

  I agree with Jim Rogers.... We have something to worry about when Ag. makes  triple digits by the year end.... IF THE DOLLAR IS STILL ALIVE however, the dollar is currently falling as silver rises..... We can't continue to believe that China, India and every other nation has not come to realize that the comex  can't deliver and WILL DEFAULT..... They aren't the dumb backward nations we once thought they were.... I firmly believe that these nations, especially China is giving geitner, bernanke and the president enough rope to carry out the inevitable execution of the dollar..... If there is anyone out there who believes the dollar will survive SELL your PM's now and buy lean HOGS.... I see some are worried about having to bailout dimon's jp morgan bullion  bank... Not to worry.... dimon's bank can't be bailed out w/useless paper and debased coinage..... I respect Jim Rogers and I understand that he did not get where he is  by making mistakes ( his greatest financial decison was packing up, getting OUT of the U.S. before the shit hits the fan, moving to Singapore where all the power will soon be.......... If he thought the U.S. Economy / dollar would be around for much longer he never would have left so QUICKLY...... Who should we blame for this current mess? Obama? bush? Clinton? I say NO! I say Hell NO! The winner of the dumb fuck award goes to woodrow wilson for allowing the rothchilds to take control of Our Nation almost 100 years ago. Not unlike a tsunami beginning with a small wave thousands of miles away, is what we can compare woodrow wilson's sellout to the rothchilds central bank. His name should be wiped from history of the U.S. and placed in Websters Dictionary defining DUMBFUCK SELLOUT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

                                                                    Silence Doogood

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 00:11 | 1186920 mr66
mr66's picture

I agree.  the JP Morgue are a bunch of scumbags and would love to see them tank, but on a point and figure chart, there is no short squeeze over there as the px. has not shown a triple bottom breakdown

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 00:11 | 1186925 mr66
mr66's picture

I agree.  the JP Morgue are a bunch of scumbags and would love to see them tank, but on a point and figure chart, there is no short squeeze over there as the px. has not shown a triple bottom breakdown

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 20:17 | 1186314 bankrupt JPM bu...
bankrupt JPM buy silver's picture

Silver should already be $110 in infaltion adjusted terms.  This is rediculous.  Anyone accepting $50/oz for their physical is a complete fuckjob.

 

www.silvergoldsilver.blogspot.com

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 20:41 | 1186371 sun tzu
sun tzu's picture

Spot is $47 so I would sell at $50 and buy back at $48

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 07:00 | 1187310 DosZap
DosZap's picture

If your dealer is selling you at $47.00 spot, does it hurt when you sit?.

Since the Spot I see is just pushing $44.71.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 21:20 | 1186450 SparkyvonBellagio
SparkyvonBellagio's picture

There were 615 on this map  yesterday, now 698. Hang on, grab some railing. This might get busy in a hurry.

Also Nevada is in a quake storm which is 'odd' to say the least.

 

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqscanv/

 

Unless a Cascade Mega-Thruster hits before California's.

A Cascadian quake is much worse unless it all unzips together down to Mexico.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 22:48 | 1186675 bulldung
bulldung's picture

Interesting, looks like small quakes happen all the time; guess you need to know the delta to make anything of it.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 20:53 | 1186401 PY-129-20
PY-129-20's picture

No wonder. The fiat money is dying everywhere on the planet - but isn't it ironic that a country named ARGENT-INA is facing hyperinflation...

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2011/04/07/benzinga9877...

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 07:04 | 1187313 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Talk about a screwed up political system...sheesh, they make us look good.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 19:41 | 1186212 dlmaniac
dlmaniac's picture

Somewhere around 50/oz it should correct, and that's about the time Fed will (pretend to) end their lavish credits injection plan.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 21:54 | 1186537 SRSrocco
SRSrocco's picture

Silver has been held down for over 4 decades.  Take a look at the 10 year averages of silver and gold over the past 40 years:

 

SILVER 1971-1980 = $6.80 avg. price

SILVER 1981-1990 = $6.85 avg. price

SILVER 1991-2000 = $4.88 avg. price

SILVER 2001-2010 =$10.25 avg. price

 

GOLD 1971-1980 = $190.15 avg. price

GOLD 1981-1990 = $395.38 avg. price

GOLD 1991-2000 = $340.48 avg. price

GOLD 2001-2010 = $616.53 avg. price

 

------------------------------------

During the 1970-80 period the average decade price of silver was $6.80.  The next decade it was only 5 cents more at $6.85.  Gold on the other hand had a decade average price of $190.15 from 1979-1980 , but more than doubled to $395.38 the following decade. 

If we compare both metals, we find that silver went up from $6.80 to $10.25, or 50.7% in 4 decades, whereas gold went from $190.15 to $616.53, or 228% in the same time period.  This is why we are finally witnessing the parabolic move in silver.

SILVER...THE NON BUBBLE

Many analysts are saying that silver is in a parabolic speculative bubble.  If we look at Silver Eagle Sales over the past 10 years we find that demand has picked up recently, but it is not in a bubble:

SILVER EAGLE SALES

2001 = 8,827,500
2002 = 10,475,000
2003 = 9,153,500
2004 = 9,617,000
2005 = 8,405,000
2006 = 10,021,000
2007 = 9,887,000
2008 = 19,583,000
2009 = 28,766,500
2010 = 34,662,500
2011 = 14,508,500 (April)

Already we see 14.5 million silver eagle sales in 2011.  If sales continue there should be over 40 million sales this year.  There are 307 million people in the United States.  Not all silver eagles are sold to just Americans but if they were and if we stated that only half or 160 million would be able to buy silver eagles, that is ONE LOUSY SILVER EAGLE for every 4 people.

This does not seem like a bubble.  Back in 1999 when Tech stocks were the big thing, grandmothers got together to discuss what stocks to buy.  Less than 1% of Americans hold silver as an investment.

To those ANAL-ISTS who think silver is in a bubble, you may need to get your head examined.  Silver has been kept artificially low for decades and is now finally showing its true SHINNY COLOR.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 22:24 | 1186622 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

+1

"parabolic moves always collapse"

does that hold true when something has been artificially parabolically suppressed for many years

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 02:11 | 1187089 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Parabolic moves always collapse. But if you look at a silver chart. It's showing a 45 degree bull market grind. The only strange thing about it is that it's not backstepping. It's a nearly perfect relentless grind. It's got a strange overpower inevitability behind it.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 22:24 | 1186624 Squid-puppets a...
Squid-puppets a-go-go's picture

dbl post

Wed, 04/20/2011 - 07:08 | 1187325 DosZap
DosZap's picture

The private mint coins sold, and bars, make the US Mint look like a weak sister.

Multiply those Eagle #'s, times about 10,000 and you may be close.And that's just the US.

The Pac Rims, cannot get enough, here there is no real shortage to individual buyers.

But we are (goody) back in backwardation again.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 20:05 | 1186283 KTV Escort
KTV Escort's picture

should gold grind on up to $1650 per oz and silver attain the proverbial GSR of 16:1 that would put silver at $103... triple digits, yet not an issue IMO ~ I see it plateau at that point, not collapse, or slowly move higher from there

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 20:13 | 1186297 KTV Escort
KTV Escort's picture

silver is, after all, the superman of metals, with growing industrial uses...

Silver has the highest electrical and thermal conductivity of all metals. Every computer, server, monitor, cell phone and switch must have silver. Lasers, satellites, solar panels, high-tech weaponry (tomahawk cruise missiles use 500 oz) and robotics, all require silver. Digital technology and telecommunications need silver. There's silver in every TV, washing machine, wall switch and refrigerator. Conductors, switches, contacts and fuses use silver because it does not corrode or cause overheating and fires. Silver is used heavily in photography and in prints. Batteries are now manufactured with silver alloys. Lead-free silver solder is used heavily for joining materials and producing leak-tight joints. Silver is also widely used in silk-screened circuit paths, membrane switches, electrically heated automobile windows, and adhesives.

Silver achieves the most brilliant polish of any metal and has the highest reflectivity of light of all the metals, allowing it to be used in mirrors and in coatings for glass, cellophane or metals. Double layers of silver on glass reflects away 95% of the hot rays of the sun. Silver has a variety of uses in pharmaceuticals as silver kills bacteria. Hospitals use silver coated devices in surgery to eliminate contamination and infection. Skin care products now use colloidal silver as it has been found to be a healing agent and disinfectant. Silver sulfadiazine is the most powerful compound for burn treatment. Catheters impregnated with silver eliminate bacteria. Silver is increasingly being tapped for water purification, silver ions used in pools and spas. To prevent growth of germs and fungus on surfaces silver ions are used in paints and coatings.

Plus, the unique properties of silver restrict its substitution in most applications.

 

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 20:27 | 1186334 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

FOFOA (fofoa.blogspot.com) makes the case (and old English economists he quotes) that hoarding of materials needed by industry has a moral component to it, namely that hoarding food, silver, copper, etc. helps to create shortages and drives up prices.

Gold is apparently the only exception.  Hoard all you want, "industry" is not hurt.

FOFOA's eloquence and logic are far better than mine.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 21:06 | 1186429 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

I have enjoyed that blog (and Another's Thoughts) immensely, in fact, it convinced me to 'follow in the footsteps of giants'.

Tue, 04/19/2011 - 22:05 | 1186571 tiger7905
tiger7905's picture

Richard Russell is actually thinking the US might encourage gold purchases like Asia. I think he's getting old, just don't see it happening.

http://goldandsilverlinings.com/?p=730

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!