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Jim Rogers Comments On Triple Digit Silver And Issues Warning: "Parabolic Moves Always Collapse"
Jim Rogers commented on the recent move by the University of Texas to take delivery of $1 billion in gold, saying the decision is long overdue, and has only occurred because everyone else is now buying thereby taking metal out of circulation. He adds: "But where were these guys five, ten years ago? That’s when they should have been doing all of this." Indeed the momentum chasers never show up until it's too late. Then Rogers had some words of caution for silver bulls: "If silver continues to go up like it has been over the past 2 or 3
weeks, yes, then it would get to triple digits this year. And then
we’ll have to worry. It’s not parabolic yet. I hope something stops it
going up in the foreseeable future and we have a correction. " There is one caveat: "maybe the US dollar is going to become confetti in 2011, and if
that’s the case and silver goes to $150, then obviously I wouldn’t sell
my silver. It would be the US dollar which is collapsing. But if
silver goes up the way you’re talking about without currency collapse, I
would be very worried." So as usual, those long Precious Metals should not hate the Chairsatan but to urge him on to continue doing what he is doing so well: converting that once valuable combination of 75% cotton and 25% linen into "confetti."
From Financial Survival Radio
Financial Survival Radio: We just read that the second-largest university investment fund here in the US is buying physical gold. The University of Texas, which is where I live, is putting aside $1B worth of gold in a New York vault. Some have called this move a tipping point for the precious metals market. Do you agree?
Jim Rogers: Well, tipping point? Gold’s been going up for ten years in a row. I’d hardly call this a tipping point. Silver’s been skyrocketing…
FSR: Maybe a tipping point where we see more institutional mainstream demand.
JR: Well, again, that has been happening. If suddenly all the pension funds wake up and say, I’ve got to own gold, they may start thinking about it more and more. But the thing that’s been getting people’s attention is the fact that gold has been going up so much. That’s the wrong way to invest. Look, I own gold. I own silver. But where were these guys five, ten years ago? That’s when they should have been doing all of this. Unfortunately for all of us, most investors don’t notice something until there’s a good, nice bull market in place, such as with gold and silver. After ten years of price rises in gold, people are starting to notice. That’s what they’re noticing more than the fact that the University of Texas is buying gold. I’m glad they did, I own gold. And yes, there will be more people buying gold. Eventually, everybody’s going to be owning gold, and then we’ll all have to sell our gold. But that’s a long way from now.
FSR: Silver in particular has been of great interest to my family. It looks like $50 silver is going to happen very soon. But Jim, will we see a triple-digit silver price in 2011?
JR: If it does, we’ll all have to sell, because then you’ve got a bubble, a parabolic move and all parabolic moves end badly. I certainly hope it doesn’t happen because I own silver and want to buy more. My hope is, silver and gold and all commodities will continue to go up in an orderly way for another ten years or so, and eventually the prices will be very, very high. Yes, we’ll have triple-digit silver, but if it happens this year, Jay, I would probably start to think about selling.
FSR: But what we’ve seen so far, you wouldn’t consider parabolic?
JR: No, not yet. But I’m worried about silver. If silver continues to go up like it has been over the past 2 or 3
weeks, yes, then it would get to triple digits this year. And then
we’ll have to worry. It’s not parabolic yet. I hope something stops it
going up in the foreseeable future and we have a correction. There’s never one in history that hasn’t popped.
Now, maybe the US dollar is going to become confetti in 2011, and if that’s the case and silver goes to $150, then obviously I wouldn’t sell my silver. It would be the US dollar which is collapsing. But if silver goes up the way you’re talking about without currency collapse, I would be very worried.
FSR: So that’s the bottom line, those who have been holding on to precious metals for the long term need to watch where the Dollar is to decide whether it’s time to sell.
JR: That’s certainly part of it, yes. And you have to watch the price action. I remember when gold went parabolic in 1980. I shorted gold when it went parabolic in 1980, and it went higher for another two weeks after I shorted it. But it eventually collapsed. Silver eventually collapsed. All parabolic moves throughout history, there’s never been a parabolic move which hasn’t collapsed in any asset.
Silver and gold, yes, will be a bubble someday, Jay. There’s no question in my mind that all commodities will be a huge bubble someday. But I don’t think that bubble is going to happen in 2011. I think it’s going to be more likely 2017, or 2018…you know, a few years from now. I’m not picking a year, just saying it’s a few years away. It could happen sooner, but I hope not.
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USD's and short end UST's, say ETF's get slaughtered (like in 2010) - you'll have a mass of short spec positions light up. That's where the money will go. Till the Fed jumps in again.
Also Asia should correct massively on inflation pop, so short selling Asia will occur (Asia has a huge bond and CDS bubble) IMO Japan is toast.
"The market has been running away from Treasurys"
Say what?
Over the past 3 years, approximately $5 Trillion has been put into treasuries, at a fairly steady rate of about $1.8 Trillion per year.
looks pretty darn parabolic to me, too!
i think that's jim's point. really.
dollar debauchery is sending gold, and silver is just going about twice as fast. what the hell? sounds ok to me!
How about over the past 6 months....? The Market isn't buying them, the Fed is.
The irony about gold and silver pricing is that it's the paper market that provides the liquidity that allows the 'efficient' pricing.
If not for the paper, non-physical market, in an anti-paper asset, liquidity is extremely thin.
So, it's the correction in the paper certificate pricing of gold and silver that will cause a major correction.
It's not as if one who has physical can price theirs for sale at a higher price than what the paper market dictates (unless it truly is TEOTW, in which case, booze, soap and spam are going to be hot commodities in a black market).
Dolt!
"It's not as if one who has physical can price theirs for sale at a higher price than what the paper market dictates (unless it truly is TEOTW, in which case, booze, soap and spam are going to be hot commodities in a black market)."
You better get to WalMart and get your Spam then, because physical IS selling for higher than paper right now on ebay MORON. You're stuck in the normalcy bias. Breaking News! The US DOLLAR and all paper currencies are WORTHLESS. There is nothing normal about this market. There is nothing normal about our being involved in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, and now Libya. WAKE UP! You haven't been paying attention. Turn off the TV, stop taking the Prozac.
lulz.
Ebay sellers getting higher bids on physical. Yeah, that totally disproves my point.
And "the DOLLAR and all paper currencies are WORTHLESS."
Okay buddy. Hyperbole called and asked for you to STFU.
It's your inane ramblings and foaming at the mouth that will convince many that Jim Roger's warning on overbought has credence.
Jim is smart lives in Asia reads the writing on the wall.
I don't know if you see the irony of your statement.
mene mene tekel parsin
look at this way. Asia has been underwriting the US/EZ/UK print jobs. SO if Asia/China is bid metal prices go up supporting UK/EU markets, the Fed prints into the US market. If Asia goes into a middle yr correction. It should correct metal prices significantly - copper being a parabolic trade also.
It is due.
822 to 10,000 in 18 years - 15.8% CAGR - is not parabolic in my book. What you saw in the immediate 30 minutes following S&P's announcement yesterday is more representative of a parabolic move.
Jim presumes the PM surge is driven by speculation or a cycle that will revert once some normalizing factor comes to bear or another asset class becomes "in vogue." What he doesn't see - and too many others are also blind to - is that this is a core and irreversable shift, the end-result of which will be a supplanting of the dollar's currency status.
NIA did a good piece on what to look for in terms of "parabolic" movements in silver:
http://www.inflation.us/silvertruth.html
Adjust the broad stock indices for inflation, say by using the CPI which we know is understated, and they indeed collapsed. At the lowest point the SPX and DJI bounced off the pre-stagflationary 70's 1968 high.
If you look closely the current move higher may be the fourth wave of a five wave post-parabolic collapse. I'm not a big elliot wave fan, but the potential fifth wave potentially could take inflation-adjusted market indices down to early-80's levels, which would be a complete wipe out of the parabola.
Another weird statement - "Eventually, everybody’s going to be owning gold, and then we’ll all have to sell our gold."
Why would we have to sell our gold? I suppose many people may sell gold because they want to cash out on big gains - but I wouldn't consider that "having" to sell gold. He's implying that all of us that own gold own it for speculative reasons, which just isn't the case.
The guys right about a lot of things, but his mind just wanders into never-never land some times.
That, and I think he's going to burned by his love of China eventually. That's a bubble just waiting to pop. Maybe he'll get lucky and decide to get out while the getting's good - but he's made no hint of it that I've seen.
Precious metals are acting as savings vehicles now. So when everybody owns gold and silver, then everybody will have to start spending their gold and silver. If paper becomes worthless, the PMs get used. I hope you have enough to live on for a long time. It is just savings if paper is worthless.
Right now it is an investment. Then it will be just savings.
gh
The problem with that statement is - when the time comes that we'll all be using gold and silver for currency, we won't "all be selling it" - we'll be neither net sellers or buyers. Some will be selling (for goods and services), and and equal amount will be buying (with goods and services).
Something about owning a dinky little 10 oz bar of shiny metal just doesn’t do it for me. If I’m going to own some really shiny metal I want a 1000 oz. brick of it, and silver is the best my pockets can afford. Now if I were Hosni Mubarak, Lloyd Blankfein, or some other wealthy monarch, it would be all gold for me baby.
I just don't see PMs being a bubble... ever. This isn't pets.com or a Miami condo, this a flight of safety into things that have historically maintained value throughout recorded history. I don't see many buying gold and silver with the idea "I'm going to get rich". People are buying because they know their purchasing powering is declining and PMs can protect that value. You don't think most of us would rather ride the equities gravy train up with the ability to cash in and out digitally at a whim? I like holding gold coins too, but strippers aren't equipped to deal with Krugerrands. Bubbles don't form from flights into safety. Nothing goes straight up, but PMs will rise until we've hit Mad Max level or the tooth fairy solves all of monetary woes.
Judging by the numbers of responses I am not sure the argument that silver is not a bubble is true when the responders purport to be loaded down.There isn't enough silver available to you and chinese to not drive this sucker to da moon
My issue is - have we just about landed the lunar module.
If one looks at history and if you have never been in a precious mania you realy have no clue.
Not dissing you just tryign to clue you in.
Go research the behavoural stuff on Pm manias. In Canada last time they were lined up 1000 deep in Toronto and Vancouver Scotia banks in the early 80's trying to buy some.
Becuase we take delviery in the comfort of our homes i don't think that indicator will work. With no outward signs of the bubble how do we know we are in one?
Intesting dilemma - you must be prepared for an exit. When is your choice but an exit strategy is a must.
salute prepare accordngly
BTFD or STFT whatever turns your crank. It is becoming difficult to tell which is which. Here's what I know from 2008, every brain surgeon who pumps PM's who you read got their clocks clicked.
Not one called it. Bob Moriority did partially. Bob Hoye did techncially but didn;t get the exact top.
All I know is silver got slaughtered and jumpers were everywhere.
Anyway, all is good int he MATRIX today I guess
How can you compare this situation to 2008? Mania? The miners haven't done a damn thing yet, and the USD is in much worse shape now. I don't get the doom and gloom on silver at all. Gold just now broke to new highs recently to confirm silvers breakout. What's with all the fear?
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/4/18_James_Turk_-_Negative_US_Credit_Watch_Signals_Dollar_Collapse.html
You don't get the "doom & gloom" on silver?
It's nearly tripled in price in 6 months!
When the Fed announces QE3 ( or covertly prints and hands out another few $$Trillion$$) gold, silver and oil will skyrocket.
BOOOOYAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.readtheticker.com/Pages/Blog1.aspx?65tf=140_timing-silver-prices-with-100-accuracy-2011-02
http://www.readtheticker.com/Pages/Blog1.aspx?65tf=136_silver-can-swing-your-wealth-between-rich-and-poor-2011-02
Not to be insulting to your intelligence, but you don't take physical delivery of your hogs!!!! You have them stored in a vault in the basement where Blythe has her office!!!!!
Bernanke may actually be trying to blow up a bubble for the very reason Rogers outlines. In fact I've surmised that Bernanke would probably like to see a bubble in China since it would hamstring a competitor. The bubble machine is alive and well.
"if it hits $100 we'll all have to start selling". Selling in exchange for what Jim? Your premise is flawed - you're thinking of gold and silver as investments with a top and after that a decline. And you're thinking of the dollar as the standard against which value is measured. The reality is that the world is in an inevitable transition away from fiat money toward real money. I won't be"selling" any silver or gold I own ever - I will instead be buying stuff with it that I need to live. I'm buying gold and silver ( I very much prefer silver) now with printed paper saying "thank you" every time I have an opportunity to do so. Been doing it for years. The idea that sometime in the future smart people will exchange gold or silver for printed paper is ludicrous. Printed paper is on its way into the dustbin of history - to coin a phrase - and those who think the way you do are equally dusty.
Nah, I doubt it ends in the dustbin. A few generations will pass, it's previous existence will be scrubbed from the history books of the era, and the scam will be foisted upon the bewildered herd once more. As it for many injustices of the current times, the purveyors of the recycled flimflam will be indistinguishable from history's scrubbers. It will be considered a highly guarded secret to be shared only within secret societies and perceived as a means to the end of amassing unimaginable fortunes consisting of real assets.
i not only want to buy silver, i, also, intend to buy a little land. and pay cash. no mortgage.
Nice bow tie, Jimma..... you're a classic.
Why do I get the feeling when reading this transcript that Jim Rogers sees a smackdown coming and wants to be on record?
I am NOT making any predictions about what happens from here with price, but an observation, merely, on Jim Roger's possible reasons for saying precisely what he said - he's a man who says nothing without careful consideration and calibration, even if it comes off 'folksy.' He's a country lawyer type.
Jim's still a player and a damn good one re: Quantum fund mega % trades.
He and others called the 2008 wipeout and were all over the press, cept no one really could predict how insane the Fed would be with printing and the rebound.
It's now all Asia, they go down, they take out the US and developed markets. Should cue the Fed for QE3.
He trades from the guts.
After the S&P downgrade yesterday, money poured into US treasuries given the Greece issue. PMs did do some movement... but the US dollar was where money went for safety.
Gundlach and Nenner have said they believe that once QE2 is over, we'll see a rally in the bond market, meaning money leaving stocks.
I'm willing to bet that we're going to see a PM correction... even if only temporary.
Real silver physical price is already $55...
$100 not that much further at this point!
http://silverdoctors.blogspot.com/2011/04/real-price-of-physical-silver-...
http://voices.idahostatesman.com/2011/04/14/idahopolitics/tea_party_bois...
"Parabolic moves always collapse."
JR is talking about parabolic moves in PMs.
What about parabolic moves in money printing the last 3 years? Will that not also lead to collapse? As in dollar collapse?
On this date in 1764 the English Parliament banned the American colonies from printing paper money. Nobody much knows this, and those who do don't want to admit it, but when the Declaration accuses the king of "refusing his assent to laws most wholesome and necessary" this prohibition against paper money was highest on the list. Colonies had been cheating their people and other colonies with paper money since Massachusetts first issued it in 1686. Only after the Continental Congress ruined the country and nearly lost the war with paper currency did statesmen acquire enough courage to ban it in Article I, Sec. 10 of the 1787 constitution. Yet today in outrageous defiance of constitution and laws the Federal Reserve has been granted a government monopoly on issuing fiat money.
copypasta
Looks like the Jews were out junking Long LongSilver and Monkey Boy in full force.
Looks like they tagged team you's.
Guess they like Joo Confetti,
Silly Sheep.
screw all you wanna be nazi assholes
i, for one, am tired of being banker's and israel's taxpayer bitch.
i am going to go out on a limb and assume i'm not alone in that thinking.
problem is, there is no fighting the momentum now. this whole global banking racketeering filthy system has to come crashing down before anything really changes.
thirty two thousand ounces
plus or minus a few
banded on a small pallet..
reballasting the boat
salty sea hag
bytches...
Well I really don't know how much more life the Dollar has in it. We've got to support the causes worth supporting. Support the Silver Liberation Army Movement! Buy Silver, Crash JP Morgan!
http://silverliberationarmy.blogspot.com/
Jim rogers is smart man. His advice should definitely be taken into consideration.
Silver needs to calm down some so I can BTFD!!
to all of the people I encouraged to invest in silver back in 2002 who didn't:
"told ya' so"
don't know what the big deal is, you actually should want a correction in silver and gold, so you can buy on the print job rebounds + the global bond markets collapsing in 2012 = doomsday trade.
The important point is, gold and silver will "go parabolic" as the dollar collapses and dies. Those "parabolic moves" happen every time a fiat currency collapses, which every last fiat currency in history has done. These so-called "bubbles" are only one-way bubbles in those fiat currencies that go the way of the doodoo bird. And that's what will happen here. Eventually the gold and silver we hold will be spendable money. Actually, I already ran an experiment about that, and already I can buy 93% of everything I want to buy with physical gold and silver coins and bars.
300% ANNUAL RETURN IF YOU BUY NOW!!!
WHOEHOE!!
“Jim Rogers Comments On Triple Digit Silver And Issues Warning: “Parabolic Moves Always Collapse”
Not Always – NOT This Time – ThisTime is Different – This is No normal Bull market like Jim is used too. This is A World Wide Economic Collapse!
Jim is professionally Deformed which is a common feature with people who are in the same business far too long.
Hi guys,
Been following the topic (and site) for quite some time now, I'm new to trying to follow the market and the economy, but I'm trying to learn and appreciate all your varied opinions and insights.
My question is, with the current state of the dollar and it's expected continued depreciation (over time)...what kind of economic conditions could account for a correction in PM to the degree Rogers is hinting of?
I just don't see confidence returning to the dollar "ever" to previous times.
So while I assume that external economic forces can cause dips and fluctuations, but I see the general trend for PMs to be upward.
What then could cause a PM bubble then? A too fast rise? If demand holds and more and more become aware of the dollar's condition, I'd expect demand to also continue.
So even with temporary adjustments it seems to me that PMs will continue to be turned to for safety and stability and investment.
Does anyone really think that there will be a time where people feel the dollar is safe enough to flock back to?
So what about this climb indicates a possible "parabolic" state?
Seems like continued growth in value is the logical outcome given our current and imo foreseeable economic future.
I'd love any comment or clarification from the community here.
Like I said, I'm trying to learn and understand as much as I can :)
Warm Regards to All,
Stu :)
- in short, I think I understand a little of what drives the PM market UP, I'm just not 100% clear on what drives it down.
thx