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Jim Rogers: "I Am Buying Euro For A Relief Rally" But All Fiat Currencies Are Doomed
On one hand you have BNP revising their mid-term EURUSD forecast to 0.98, on the other you have such pessimists as Jim Rogers saying to buy the Euro. Who to trust anymore? Granted, Rogers' thesis is only predicated on a a relief rally, pretty much the same as what we suggested when we saw the Goldman downgrade of the EURUSD, and immediately beckoned readers to get right back in. We consider the +50,000 pips picked in the ensuing week a direct gift from god (or at least his favorite worker). At this point the relief rally has likely fizzled, and the direction now is indeed down, at least until the next time the CFTC notes the net EUR shorts have hit a fresh record. Back to Rogers: in the long-term, Jim is just as bearish as always: "The European governments are not getting their act together, not at all. All paper money is flawed, nearly every currency in the world."
Rogers on European credibility: "If Greece went bankrupt it would send the signal to the world, and to the rest of Europe - ok, we're not going to let people lie about their finance anymore, we are not going to let them spend money they don't have, we are going to run a tight ship. That means the euro would be an extremely sound currency, it would the old Deutsche Mark." On Keynesianism: "You can't keep spending money you don't have because eventually the whole thing collapse in a house of cards." On the transition to reality: "I am not suggesting it is going to be a good time, don't get me wrong. But if you wait 5 years from now, 10 years from now, when there is nothing you can do, and the whole system collapses, then you have real chaos in the streets, then you have Greece never recovering. In the US we have had states go bankrupt, cities go bankrupt, counties go bankrupt. It didn't end the US, it didn't end the US dollar." And on the flaws of our political system, which are just as applicable to our own president: "Greece is just trying to get through the next election, I am trying to figure out what's good for country, what's good for the world, what's good for Europe, what's good for the financial system."
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"relief rally" WHATEVER.
EURUSD 1.35 by end of 2010
Shame it's just a 3-minute clip of the half-hour show. I've seen Jim Rogers on TV many times, but I especially enjoyed this because the HARDTalk show host(ess) always attempts to be extremely provocative to the guest.
I wonder if Jimmy boy got rid of all his nasty usd last year like he wanted to.
He owns the dollar...
"I Am Buying Gold For A Relief Rally"???
Tyler, I think you meant to type,
"I Am Buying EURO For A Relief Rally"
He said he was buying the Euro. No gold talk in the linked clip... maybe in the full show, which the BBC will not let me see due to my Yankee nature.
Dang Yankees--oh, you don't mean NYY. Sorry - Ned
"... I have two little girls, I have a family. We're worried about the long-term future." That says it all.
Well, the guy took his family and moved to China because he liked how well statist capitalism was working and said his daughters were learning to speak Mandarin. I don't think much of him or his opinions as they have been wrong most of the time.
Wasn't aware of that. Thanks. That puts a different light on his whole schtick. Thanks again.
He lives in Singapore (not China) and is still a US citizen and has a US passport.
He served in the U.S. military, did you?
What does that have to do with anything?
Fallacy:
Classic Straw man argument...
Analogy:
I have to be a member of the "Dick" club for my opinion to count...
His opinions have been wrong most of the time? Please provide details.
Most of the time is hyperbolic. But if you dont get him being wrong (many times by the way) either you dont follow him or you dont want him be wrong.
Guy announced end of British pound for example.
Guy is involved in commodities and commodity players by structure are the ones filling their pockets with fiat currencies. They are at the losing end of the Ponzi scheme. This guy might be hurt much less bad than commodities rich countries but it will be hit.
Check a board of commodities involved players to get the mood. Worst than on this site.
Here's a link to some instructions on how to get around the evil BBC wall. I can't find a free UK proxy that functions properly.
Here's some instructions on how to run the blockade. I'll see if it works.
http://hurwi.net/blog/?p=28
Anyone want to rip the show and put it on Youtube?
Shweet
Thanks! That guide didn't work for me, but it did put me on the right track. I can now use iplayer outside the sceptred isle, which is great.
Here's a suggestion for you Jimmy ... stay in Singapore or Bejing or wherever it is that you live... and here, have a Mandarin. You have been wrong for 10 years and you are wrong now.
Yeah, that's why you have more money than him....
Never forget that people like him are paid to manage others' assets/values etc
Make a change to a guy who is the only representative of his investments.
I am not so interested in what Jim is saying but what Marc Fabar said is very interesting; 'At the last G20 meeting the US campaigned for more QE in all major economies and the Europeans said they were going the austerity route.'
Fabar then went on to say that the Europeans will talk hawkishly about budgets but will continue to print and spend.
I'm betting that Fabar is right. To believe otherwise is to believe that the US can no longer impose or weild power over the direction of the European economies and that the entire world economy will destabilize into chaos. Or, on the other hand, to believe that the US will have to employ austerity measures in the US to stay in sync with Europe.
Sorry if this is a bit off topic but to me it is much more important than what Jim Rogers thinks about fiat currencies. Jim made a lot of money when he was working with Soros and is probably still making money but he comes off as confused as most in these fast changing times. If Jim bought fisical AU and is holding he will do fine...and he said long ago that is what he did...end of story.
Jim - like Soros and most other mega-traders - will switch positions on a dime. He's talking up the Euro now because that's what he's long. And he'll close the position before he tells you about it. It's suicidal to listen to these guys for trading advice, but it's always interesting to hear what they have to say.
Central banks are supposed to coordinate to control inflation. Everyone will QE. Europe is just talking austerity now because the US election isn't until November. No standing politician will talk about austerity. Because they will be clobbered. Austerity means dismantling all the tiny fiefdoms that politicians run.
They will wait until after the election. I suspect they will introduce means testing on Medicare/SS (functionally killing it) or blow up both programs.
It will be insufficient, but doing that could buy the dollar more time.
"They will wait until after the election. I suspect they will introduce means testing on Medicare/SS (functionally killing it) or blow up both programs.
It will be insufficient, but doing that could buy the dollar more time."
If you are correct about their intentions with regard to SS/Medicare they will have a very ticked off population to deal with.
In fact, I don't think they want to go there unless they are ready to use troops to shoot down grannys and granpas. For many SS is the only income per household and they have worked a lifetime for their small checks...and, SS tax was not voluntary.
If that is the choice then the azzhats better figure out how to continue kicking the can down the road. LOL
Exhibit A, David Brooks, Reliable Priest of the Oligarchs (http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/11/opinion/11brooks.html?ref=davidbrooks):
Translation:
We're going to make sure that no one above the poverty line will qualify for any kind of government benefits.
We will not eliminate the taxes. In fact, we will probably increase them.
We will give away more money to infrastructure companies like Halliburton. We will also give lots of money to alt-energy scam companies.
There will be higher taxes, but not for those who know how to buy off the legislature and creatively structure their corporations. Those that understand how to issue fraudulent carbon securities will also be at an advantage.
In conclusion, it feels great to rape America. God Bless the Fed.
Thanks for the literal translation of Brookseze. Funny, the original reads almost like English, kind of like reading Swabian or something. I hope that Google will eventually provide such translators for those of us who are not fluent in these dialects.
+1 and see Rosie today and see Laffer on 6/6 in WSJ. All kinds of "headwinds" blowing sand in our faces.
- Ned
"He's talking up the Euro now because that's what he's long."
Should he talk up what he doesn't believe in? Or should he invest in what he doesn't believe in? What will it be?
Flawed logic is just...flawed.
How does this statement translates into sense. This is just bullshit. Europe; its citizens or its governments could not care less about the outcome of Nov. elections in the US. Dont let your Anglophilia blind you; it transforms, very quickly, into stupidity. Europe is conducting austerity measures [the worst one i have seen ... ever] just because EU government is not in the stronghold of the corporate entities who control its policy [unlike the USA] and can yield influence and control over the corps [for reference see Germany, ban, naked shorting]. ECB is conducting secondary market bond buybacks, but thats hardly inflationary or QE [paltry 57B in light of deleveraging, unavailability of CC].
Baroque-esque constructs I see daily here are neither a practical solution, nor a viable one, nor a possible one for that matter; they are just rants; and nothing more. Revolution this, freedom that, liberty this, constitution that; bullshit; maybe 2 million people in America know what is going on [they only know general information, not the details], and you really think that 1 million people is ready, smart enough, logistically supported enough to bring you some Libertarian paleo[puke]-constitutional Utopia. Its not.
And the degree of oversimplification around this place [in the last month or so] is astounding. But whatever, its not like I actually give a shit, its the stupidity that makes my blood boil.
Another knob!
I see Robert Pretcher and Rick Ackerman are deflationist by debt deleveraging.
For example in recent goldseek articles Rick Ackerman is still tyring to use his own words to ridicule the monetary "inflationist" which according to me own opinion does not quite exists...
http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1276063200.php
http://news.goldseek.com/RickAckerman/1275544800.php
In fact I see those who would suggest a hyperinflation scenario would point to a situation which is triggerd by a debt crisis with mixing inflation and deflation effect. Afterall if people lose confidence in money it is the velocity of money that matters more than the quantity of money (according to Martin Armstrong).
Even Rick Ackerman himself would propose an ealier article which mentioned both debt deleveraging deflation and hyperinflation happening:
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1275493504.php
So to me probably even Ackerman is just playing rhetoric to boost his own version of deflation and attack his own version of inflation to get away from being incorrect, in this grand experiment that no one experienced before.
Regarding if deflation and austerity can save the world from past worng doing, I would like to point of the major issue, is after some years of rapid globalization, social division of labor, wealth redistribution and urbanisation, can we revert the debt disease now, as if we can do it a hundred years ago?
Why does anyone give credibility to the views of people who have made bets that will benefit if said views are followed? Why did Jesse Livermore isolate himself in his trading cocoon? Because bullshit walks and talks.
BTW there is one good reason for a mega billionaire to live in Singapore, safety from civilian rioting.
Hey, he's just like us plain folks, worrying about the future for his "little girls" (translation, heiresses). Au fond de son coeur he's just Pa Kettle. Shucks, man, don't you recognize sincerity when you see it? Time to go have a beer with George...
LOL!!!! greenspan comes out and says we are the next greece... is this the atonement of an old man, a desprate attempt at reconcilliation for harm done???
http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-18/greenspan-says-u-s-nearing-limits-on-borrowing-capacity-restraint-needed.html
Man, the backstabbing instincts of the political class are just so amazingly well-honed.
Greenspan just shaved off Bernanke's beard, in a rhetorical sense.
Never stop with the dry humor, Greenspan, you old cock-sucker.
I remember Rogers has been bullish on the EUR at 1.30 just a few months ago when he said "too much bearishness, I am buying right here".
A bavarian brewery is offering the "Hopf Taler", a coin redeemable in Beer:
http://www.hopfweisse.de/hopftaler/
The slogan is "A stable currency for more Whitebeer pleasure".
Long beer, short fiat.
the EURO and the DOLLAR are doomed ...but can someone tell what might happen to othere curencies like the Indian rupees
Rupee turns to Rushit. Convert it to Wampum at Chief Wahoo currency xchange.
very good article