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Jim Rogers Joins The "Let Greece Burn" Bandwagon, Blasts The Sovereign CDS Fearmongers
While we are not sure how Betty Liu feels about Rogers' invitation to come eat some Wienerschnitzel, what is certain is that Greek PM Papandreou is not too happy with the commodities pundit right about now. When asked should Europe bail out Greece, Jim says: "No, of course not, they should let Greece go bankrupt. It would be good for the euro, it would be good for Greece, it would be good for everybody." Alas, more true words have rarely been spoken. And with every financial professional already on the same side of the boat as Rogers, politicians are now left on their own to do what they know best: i.e., the wrong thing... over and over again, and if someone can be blamed (evil, evil CDS speculators come to mind), so much the better. Also, should anyone wish to take a brave foray into the political arena (which appears is now the best paying job in the world, incidentally, just after Goldman CDS traders, hehe) on the crest of the anti CDS bashing, now is the time. It appears quite a few have risen to the challenge. As on the topic du jour that speculators are behind the euro's fall, Rogers is painfully logical:
No, of course, not, if you think that speculators and hedge funds went out and run up a deficit of 12% of the GDP, of course not. The Greeks did it and the Greek politicans did it. Then other people see the problems and started selling. The main people who are selling in Greece are Europeans who are selling, cause they see the problems. It's just like in America. When Fannie Mae got into trouble, people sold Fannie Mae. Speculators got in too, as people call then, but speculators did not cause Fannie Mae to run up gigantic debts and get into trouble, management did. And then that attracted investors who tried to take advantage of the situation.
Not to mention that if speculators are truly to blame, all they do is create a terrific buying opportunity for everyone else on the other side of the trade. Can this "speculators are guilty for everything" meme please die out already? Of course, when the shift away from equilibrium pricing is performed with the constant, very visible hand of the one endless money printer, the Federal Reserve (more on this later), it is a different story altogether.
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oh yes, of course, why don't we all just default, that would be good for everyone.
Yes, it would, actually.
Fiat currency --> wealth transfer to currency counterfeitors (governments and banks) --> financial oligarchy.
Break the cycle; who goes bust? The folks who stole the money. Everybody else will be just fine, in almost no time.
Moron. Nobody stole any money, that's money banks and pension funds invested for their clients (aka savers).
You are right they did not 'steal' it. What 'they' did is prop up a new and complicated financial instrument and then sold it to unsuspecting investors like it had actual value backing it. Meanwhile the people (like Vampire Squid) knew these were junk financial instruments and bet AGAINST their customers.
You are right in that is is not stealing, it is FRAUD!
(Of course this all depends on what your definition of 'is' is and all that if you want to play the game of semantics)
moron. inflation is a form of confiscating
asdf?
ass
sucking
dog
fucker
?????????
Right on GSD.
Hedge Fund Witch Hunt: http://williambanzai7.blogspot.com/2010/03/hedgefund-witch-hunt.html
"While we are not sure how Betty Liu feels about Rogers' invitation to come eat some Wienerschnitzel..."
Sounds like she answered in the affirmative, though she insisted Jim let her know ahead of time when he'll be there.
On another note, regardless of your view of Jim Rogers, including his "agenda", Jim asks a very specific question when he asks "Do you think that the speculators and hedge funds ran out and ran up a deficit of 12% of the GNP? Of course not, the Greeks did it and the Greek politicians did it and other people see the problems and they start selling."
How's that for a big fat Wienerschnitzel?
I'd eat Betty's Wienerschnitzel
This is rude and offensive. What if she had some chinese yeast infection ,or started her period and didnt warn you? then you'd be Redbeard. Dont be eating anything mit wiener in the name.
Why did he chose to pick Idaho. If Idaho went bankrupt.....think the Dollar would fall apart....of course not.
What if is was California.....or NY. Think he would be so damn cocky?
NY and CA are each more than 2% of the USA GDP, Idaho is not.
Greece is only about 2% of Eu. GDP.
He needs a Zerohedge bow tie.
Painfully logical arguments, generally, cannot be reduced to sound bites and thus do not play well on either TV or a book jacket.
Moreover, shifting the blame away from the responsible actors and on too speculators has gained global traction, at almost the same speed as moral hazard has gone global.
One wonders at what stage of a crisis does scapegoating become an important propaganda tool of the status quo?
Warning to speculators! Do not attend any investment symposiums in Greece during Thargelia (about May 24 and May 25)!
A Pharmakós (Greek: φαρμακ?ς) in Ancient Greek religion was a kind of human scapegoat (a slave, a cripple or a criminal) who was chosen and expelled from the community at times of disaster (famine, invasion or plague) or at times of calendrical crisis, when purification was needed. On the first day of the Thargelia, a festival of Apollo at Athens, two men, the Pharmakoi, were led out as if to be sacrificed as an expiation. Some scholia state that pharmakoi were actually sacrificed (thrown from a cliff or burned), but many modern scholars reject this, arguing that the earliest source for the pharmakos (the iambic satirist Hipponax) shows the pharmakos being beaten and stoned, but not executed.
And elsewhere...
It is agreed that an actual human sacrifice took place on this occasion, replaced in later times by a milder form of expiation. Thus at Leucas a criminal was annually thrown from a rock into the sea as a scapegoat: but his fall was checked by live birds and feathers attached to his person, and men watched below in small boats, who caught him and escorted him beyond the boundary of the city (now that is what I call a counter-party hedge). Similarly, at Massilia, on the occasion of some heavy calamity (plague or famine), one of the poorest inhabitants volunteered as a scapegoat. For a year he was fed up at the public expense, then clothed in sacred garments, led through the city amidst execrations, and cast out beyond the boundaries.
Sounds to me like the Greeks have got this shit down. Let's send Leo! Just kidding little buddy. Greek Solar Stocks, Bitches!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pharmakos
To a certain extent, Rogers is right. If Greece goes belly-up, they will get hit hard but at least they can negotiate with bondholders on their debt. The problem is who is next and what will happen to the EMU? Rogers, like other speculators, like making these grandiose declarations but they are not always thinking about the common good.
"...but they are not always thinking about the common good." The common good of the central banks & politicians Leo? Surely, you jest.
This is a classic method of extortion used by the powers-that-be against its own citizens. How many times do we hear "We need to take care of the problem before is gets worse, to fix what is broken now, for the common good. Later we'll figure out who did what and punish the wrong doers."
Of course, if there is even an "investigation", it is almost always directed away from the powers-that-be, often times serving up one or two patsies and lower rung fools. And any new rules usually allow even greater looting now or later.
It's been a year since the market bottom of March 2009 and nearly 2 years since it began to really unravel. Seen any good investigations lately? New regulations? Bastards strung up in the public square? I didn't think so.
So how is the common good served by extending a failed policy? Can Germany really bail out all the PIIGS? Even if they could is it "good" to expect savers to bail out spenders? Moral hazard is the problem and facing reality is the cure.
"common good"? Is that like "commu-NIST"? Odd, but I have never seen a "common good". Never met one.
There are "goods" which are held in "common", but only voluntarily. A government can't be a party to a "common good", since all it can do is steal, at the point of a gun.
Should they? They are supposed to be greedy capitalists looking for profits, those are politicians whose job is to pretend being concerned with common good and make grandiose declarations (and sometimes blame speculators for their own failures).
Now we know why Rogers is such a Bull on Asia.
And don't forget about the Rogers Commodity Index which they keep peddling to pension funds. Jimbo loves commodities.
I would like to atone for my insincere and spiteful remarks directed at Mr Rogers.
I would also like to add that Rogers is a sage even a Minor God of the markets.
He is always correct in his interpretation of market and economic events and I believe never would put his own vested interests over his always impartial views.
Parhaps market participants can confer him with the gift of papal infallibility where in the few instances when Jim is wrong he is right.
Us Dorks may even have the honour and pleasure of kissing his Papal Ring.
Jim "I am quite sure gold will go over $2000" Rogers?
They haven't even started to blame the speculators, they are just getting into key. Wait for the first currency crisis to hit and you will hear them sing it as a united chorus. I can't wait to hear Zimbabwe Ben that it's the speculators fault the dollar is weakening not any of his wise policies. Though expect Mervin King will have a chance to sing before Uncle Ben does.
Hegelian dialectic everytime. This whole "Greece" thing is starting to bore me.
betty liu buttons it up but she is hot
He is right on the money the responsible thing would to be bite the bullet. Speculators bringing down a country is ridiculous. If the overwhelming debt wasn't there they wouldn't be placing trades against it. These countries made their bed and now don't want to lay in it. Always take the easy road.
If they had the GDP to support this kind of debt I guarantee they wouldn't have speculators betting against it so heavily.
by Shameful
on Mon, 03/08/2010 - 13:00
#257922
“Even if they could is it "good" to expect savers to bail out spenders?”
If your wife goes out and runs up family debt? And you say Honey... enough is enough, I want a divorce...
Did you save money, divorcing her? Over just paying for the shopping spree?
Which is truly the path of least resistance? Which path is the less painful? Which path is the less expensive and thus the best way to conserve capital?
Divorce? Or just pay the interest on the card for a little while? And see if she makes the mistake again? I would not pay down the balance... just in the interest payments... if she went on a spree again the balance would still be hers in a divorce situation...
I hope that this personalized the issue enough for it to seep into some of your brains.
The issue here is hedging the long wife position with multiple otm 21-year old put options. Except im not married to my bond portfolio like I'm married to my wife.
The issue that I will give the max keiser crowd on these financial terrorists is that the banks make money whether they're your wife, the 21 year old, the divorce lawyer, or the jewelry store.
This example makes no sense. So did Germany get married to Greece? Is their credit card in the same name? Is Germany legal liable for the debt of Greece? This is like a GF running up a huge debt and asking her BF to pay it off. Sure he can but he is under no obligation to, and sure letting his GF fail might be painful temporarily it's much better for him in the long run, and it shows her he is not some chump who will pay for her idiocy.
Greece is supposed to be part of the EU family.
If California were to default, what would it do to the $Dollar?
Family is great but would you bail out a drunken drug addict cousin. The difference with CA and Greece is the Fed can force us to bail out CA, where there is no mechanism in the EU. And If I see it properly they are not allowed to, so totally different situation.
And I think CA defaulting overall would be good for the dollar, at least in the medium and long term. It would show our creditors that we will not solve every problem with the printing press. Imagine how the Euro would respond if the ECB came out and said "We will buy all paper no matte how toxic, come on down!". Now it won't matter because some one will step in and bail out Greece. It may be Germany, the ECB, or my bet the Federal Reserve but they will be bailed out. I'm more worried about Italy and Spain, bailing Greece out sets a bad precedent. Do we really want Italy and Spain screaming "Me to!" much like we will get if/when CA gets bailed out. I know AZ, IL, NY would all love some free money.
"The difference with CA and Greece is the Fed can force us to bail out CA, where there is no mechanism in the EU"
There may be no formal mechanism but they certainly got buyers to the table for those Greek bonds when they needed them.
CA defaulting will have many unintended consequences. I don't think it would encourge creditors to buy our debt.
on Mon, 03/08/2010 - 13:50
#258001
"This example makes no sense. So did Germany get married to Greece?"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro ='s "Marriage"... but if for conversational purposes you would like to ignore the facts... that is fine too...
Ah can you point me to the place that says "A nation can lie to get in. Then that nation can run insane fiscal policies and the ECB or Germany will pick up the tab" I must have missed that in the document.
If they are married then whats the problem? I think Greece should be running budget deficits in excess of 90%, why not? Germany is good for it right?
They lied to get in, and really should be tossed on their ass, not coddled. Like if you found out your wife was married to another man while you got married, kinda invalidates the whole arrangement.
Ok… you are of course correct with regard to Greece being run improperly.
Having said that… in comparison to some of the other Euro Nations… Greece is by farrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr… not the worst of the group.
So, it really comes down to the same old adage… “Do you want to be right? Or? Do you want to be happy?”
The answer… that I alluded too, maybe not so clearly above is… “Which route is the less expensive to take?” not only from the stand point of de-valuing the Euro… which if Greece fails, will happen… will which clearly affect the Euro… But as well the political fallout from the European Union not taking care of its own… in America we have at least the common sense enough to not let State Muni’s fail… outright any way… and then as well what if Greece where to take the seemingly Chinese stance of… letting local Muni’s fail…
I guess what I am trying to say… and I am no “Great Communicator” so forgive me… is that it is in fact far less expensive for the European Union to bail out their own, as it clearly will affect the larger financial positions of all of Europe in such a negative way that cannot be ignored…
I would… allow for short term debt to be arranged… to provide remedy for the costs of carrying the debt incurred by Greece to this point… and if Greece did make the cuts needed or agreed upon (the difference between agreed upon and what is needed being an expanse the size of the Pacific Ocean)… then I would allow for a broader re-structuring of the debt... which at the minimum, some of the risk would have been blended out thru the cuts made… the long term should take care of itself if… the Greeks hold themselves responsible…
So the short term answer is… arrange carry for the debt held…
The medium term answer is… allow for a debt re-structuring if cuts are made and maintained…
And then, once again… the long term pay back… should have ironed itself out…
But the contract entered into by all of the European Nations... has Not! been honored… Not! just the Greeks are out of contract or in breech... as for Zee Germans having to carry a little more than is fair… as an American I have ZERO! problem with them (them being the Germans) having to shoulder some extra weight… the Germans have brought about enough cost in the past for Germans to jump at the chance to put themselves in a more inclusive light… http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I not to be out done by http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II
I bet that Goldman is happy to facilitate all of the above… the short term debt… to provide carry for the debt held… as well as a premium spread, risk adjusted second offering for the “whoops” almost defaulted offering of yesteryear… or re-structured debt… depending on how you would like to describe it..
Oh, my word. Are you really such an uneducated cretin?
While you're playing on Wikipedia, you might look "WWI reparations", "Weimar", "German hyperinflation", and yes, that little man named Adolf. Anyone with an ounce of education - which you clearly lack - knows that the massive reparations required from Germany by France and Britain destroyed the German economy, led to people carrying around wheelbarrows of money (that's not an exaggeration - you can look up the pictures), and ultimately paved the way for a dictator because people were so sick of the problems that the politicians had caused they were willing to take any way out. Of course, the ultimate cost of that exit was some 20-40 million people killed (depending on whose estimates you use), but I guess a little thing like that doesn't really bother you.
But, sure, let's repeat the whole process again. This time it will be closer to 100 million killed, but I bet that prospect doesn't dismay you in the least.
Moron.
Wow... you are a very angry person... http://www.mayoclinic.com/health/anger-management/MH00102
attacking the person, verses attacking the idea?
any who... http://wiki.answers.com/Q/How_many_US_soldiers_died_in_World_War_1
United States Casualties in World War I
mobilized forces 4,734,991 Killed or died1 116,516 Wounded 204,002 Prisoners or missing ? Total casualties 320,518
http://wiki.answers.com/Q/How_many_soldiers_died_in_World_War_2
There were approximately 302,000 U.S. military personnel killed in military action in WW II. This number includes about 9,000 merchant marine. This number does not include about 130,000 non-combat military deaths during WW II.
and less we forget...
Quoting from WWII for Dummies -"Over 60 million people died in WWII and of those 60 million, more were civilian than soldiers." Pages 363 and 364 give a run down with some numbers but does not offer a breakdown of the total civilian vs. soldier.
The Soviet Union lost the most with 25 million deaths, but only about a third were combat related.
China's death toll is incomplete but estimates are between 15 and 22 million.
Poland had 6 million deaths including 3 million Jews, roughly 20% of its prewar population.
Germany lost 4 million soldiers and 2 million civilians, many of them women.
Japan had 1.2 million battle deaths and another 1.4 million soldiers listed as missing, almost 1 million civilians were killed in the bombing raids between 1944 and 1945.
Over 1.7 million Yugoslavs and 500,000 Greeks died in the war.
France lost 200,000 soldiers and 400,000 civilians.
Italy lost 330,000 people.
Hungary lost 147,000 men in combat.
Bulgaria lost 19,000 in combat.
Romania lost 73,000 in combat.
Great Britain lost 264,000 soldiers and 60,000 civilians in bombing raids.
The United States lost 292,000 soldiers.
The Dutch lost 10,000 soldiers and 190,000 civilians.
Australia lost 23,000 men in combat.
Canada lost 37,000 soldiers.
India lost 24,000 men in battle.
New Zeland lost 10,000.
South Africa lost 6,000.
So I can and clearly will say... "Fuck Zee' Germans!"
Let them pay... to clean up Greece... they (being Zee' Germans) had no problem invading Greece twice... at what cost to Greece and the rest of the World...
So, my un-educated answer... of let Zee' German's... show themselves in a more favorable light stands... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSoEV9dU7qk&feature=PlayList&p=781A116831DAB7FB&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=40
or...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NvmZm6lZKsc
Maybe the pictures will help... as my words are not seemingly doing the trick..
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rtsnp1m85EI
Ah so that was the better part of a century ago. In both cases they were destroyed utterly and forced to pay reparations...so when will they be allowed to stop paying? After all most of the people in Germany were not alive then. Are you saying they must pay for the sins of their fathers forever, and pay for the great sin of being born German? Hell man why not just round them up and enslave them? Their parents could have been bad better take all their assets!
Hey my family was exterminated by the soviets (and invaded by them at the start of the war, look up Latvia in WW2), so where can I get my handout from Russia? When can we expected to give America back to the Natives and then pay reparations to the descendants of slaves? And let us not forget about the Irish, when can they claim their fat check from England?
Face facts all ethnic groups have done bad things in the past and making people for for shit their ancestors did is a certain way to make people pissed and see those differences.
+10
I do not thnk that the Irish are counting on any checks from England. I do believe, however, that England should count on some more eviction notices from Ireland.
Thank you, my friend. You just have to look to the middle East for the consequences of bearing grudges for thousands of years. Holding current Germans responsible for WWII is stupid, shortsighted, and completely irresponsible. Whatever happened to "You made your bed, now lie in it"?
And for that matter, whatever happened to "Forgive and forget"? This clown apparently doesn't believe in either.
I wonder what he does believe in?
I see you easily changed gears... from attack the idea to attack the person...
The cost benefit of Germany interceding… as opposed to not… is still on the table.
Does it cost Germany more? To do nothing?
Does it cost The European Union more? To do nothing?
You would prefer that Greece’s neighbors do nothing? And because their neighbors did nothing… Greece, The European Union and the World would be the better for letting Greece burn…
Float the short term debt costs? Make a loan to Greece that allows Greece to carry the debt in place.
To then allow the Greek’s to re-structure their debt, if the Greek’s can balance their books… and if not, the existing debt still hovers over them in the event that the Greek’s refuse to act like responsible human beings.
Or, the evangelical way… spread the word, pray and do nothing…
Let it all burn seems to be the common tone or theme… and what does the World gain from watching a group of people suffer… even if from their own ignorance?
As for Zee’ Germans… as an American, I will say they are on a 3 strike rule… and WW1 along with WW2… that leaves one more and they are out… personally I think we nuked the wrong people in that War…
But the Japanese where true believers and the Germans where just puppets for a vertically challenged pontificator of Genetic Superiority… so the real threat was of course the little island. Ask the Chinese how serious the lil ittsy bittsy island is / was…
by Leo Kolivakis
on Mon, 03/08/2010 - 12:42
#257900
“And don't forget about the Rogers Commodity Index which they keep peddling to pension funds. Jimbo loves commodities.”
A broken clock is right, twice a day...
Rodgers Commodity Index will be correct every 20 years… or so.
The broken clock “Rodgers” can trend back a Century for data…
It's the fault of the common Greek citizens for abdicating all financial control to their politicians.
The Greeks are well educated on math and are capable of understanding the financial implications of debt. They have no excuse.
Here in the U.S., at least our voters can credibly claim ignorance. They chose to do nothing and let the government run up massive debt so that they could work in government jobs and
Sad.... but extemely accurate...
But as Jim points out, Greece has been on this spending spree for more than a little while. So now, several years have passed and your wife has run up several hundred thousand on her unending sprees. Now what is the choice?
Depends on how many mistresses you have and what they want.
I wonder why almost anything Rogers ever says - I'm in agreement with it.
Maybe because my background is food & softs.))
I don't quite share his bullishness on China. Eventually. But if you think their property market will collapse tomorrow, don't count on me to support that idea. I looked at the Russian real estate in 2003 and asked myself: wtf?! But the whole thing then took 4 years to top out! These crony economies can do wonders when they have enough cash and determination to hide losses.
But it would really be best if the Greeks default. "No defaults allowed" is a recent, dangerous and very Shalom-esque idea, if you know what I mean..
BB did not have to exchange dollars for counterfeit securities - he is defaulting already by diluting the value of the dollar not unlike the effective default of 1971.
His role is to protect the international banks and nothing else.
Is Rogers even actively trading anymore? Or just writing books, giving speeches and appearing on TV?
He owns a lot of gold, silver, cattle and horse ranches, and chinese spaghetti factories.
Sounds like buy & hold to me.
Jim "Let it Burn" Rogers
Greece is by the worst in the Eurozone. Highest debt to GDP.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/madoff/CDS%20Notional.jpg
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/putting-question-evil-sovereign-cds-speculators-rest#comments
Let it all burn and then the world will see that we live in a giant ponzi scheme which has been running since the gold standard was lifted in the 70s and has made billionaires and trillionaires in the financial oligarchy while the rest of the world starves.
Obama can recruit a few million Greeks for Afganistan at bargain rates.
It will solve Greece's problem and bring down the US deficit a bit.
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