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Jim Rogers: "Saudi Arabia Is Lying About Being Able To Increase Its Oil Production"
Jim Rogers joins Zero Hedge in being highly skeptical about just how credible Saudi's call for a 1MM + boost in its oil supply is: "Saudi Arabia has been lying about the reserves for decades. Saudi Arabia the last two times said they are going to increase production and they couldn't increase production. Don't fall for that. The reason oil is going up is the world is running out of known reserves of oil." Of course, then there is the question of does one trust the Quantum fund creator who retired at 37, or does one go with the sellside lemming brigade of monkeys with typewriters who will groupthink anything and everything to death, just to get paid another completely unwarranted bonus. As to those who are concerned that the commodity "bubble" is about to pop, Rogers says: "It's still years away." And some reinforcement for the gold and silver bulls: "Gold will certainly go over $2,000 by the end of the decade, and silver will pass $50." And as a hedge to his great commodity bull market call, Rogers continues to be short Nasdaq stocks. His thesis: "If the economy gets better I am going to make money in commodities, if it doesn't get better, I am going to make money in commodities cause they are going to print huge amounts of money." Call it the adjusted Tepper call. Rogers is also holding a contrarian all on the dollar: "I own some dollars now because there was a huge drop in the dollar. I do sometimes like to buy things when they collapse, and sometimes I don't. Sometimes I lose money." We assume this is merely a short-term revulsion trade as all the near-record USD shorts get flushed out as we highlighted in the latest Committment of Traders update.
Full interview:
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nope. US exported record volume of gasoline in December and is a large net exporter of Diesel fuel. US in November and December has become a net exporter of transportation fuel. US is importing crude oil from Saudi Arabia and exporting transportation fuels (gasoline, diesel) to Mexico, Latin America, Europe.
from the Department of Energy:
"U.S. exports of motor gasoline (including finished motor gasoline and motor gasoline blending components) hit a record level in November 2010 of 457 thousand barrels per day. The last time gasoline exports exceeded 400 thousand barrels per day was April 1945 when they were 419 thousand barrels per day."¨
US price at the pump surging and US exporting massive amounts of Gasoline... you figured it out! The above quote is for November, in December US exports of Gasoline were even more massive at 520 thousand barrels per day
They export a lot of gasoline.
They import a lot of oil to make said gasoline.
The planet is not making more oil.
All these statements are true, and the first statement does not negate the other two.
I suspect the gov is exporting to the US Military and contractors abroad, got to keep them drugs flowing you know.
cunningtroller.......ignorance is even more predictable.
Think he's talking about Vaseline...
Sure is BOT, your masters have been relying on it for a fuckin long time now...
Drill! Baby!! Drill!!!
Praise Jesus!!
So, Jim Rogers is long oil and in a big way.
He does appear a little nervous, though, about whether the Saudis can or cannot ramp up production as they say.
If they can, then he loses. If not, he gains (assuming demand is inelastic as the price goes higher).
Of course it can be priced too high. Remember just a few years ago at $147.00 it caused great weeping and gnoshing of teeth?
At 150 it's use decreases significantly.
Cotton was the place to be. Surley not Gold or Silver...
Of course Jim has gone ON RECORD stating the FED will eventually run out of trees.
Ron Paul also is ON RECORD stating the FED will END ITSELF
Lots of technology to replace oil. Do not think he has thought about that.
Using trash for Oil:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CWf9nYbm3ac&feature=related
How to make your own solar heating from beer cans:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRZvAAqzXIw&feature=related
Solar heated window box:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTOe2OYSPlw&feature=related
Thermal depolymerization is a cute little niche, lousy EROEI. Try and scale that to 1 mm bpd or roughly 7% of US demand.
Numbers please.
If you insist...I'll be back in a bit. I just put a ciaoppino on.
You can start here:
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2450
and any links therein
and
http://www.consumerenergyreport.com/2009/02/03/tdp-chemistry/
Sorry, that was all I could dig out in 5 minutes...
tm, you are far too stupid and ignorant to be asking for numbers.
You should already HAVE the fucking numbers.
TOD is OUT THERE waiting for you, jackass. Go educate YOURSELF.
If someone came up with a process that consumed 2 boe to produce 1 boe a moron like you would be in here trumpeting it as the salvation of mankind and when someone with actual knowledge of the oil business like Flak laughs at you, you have the gall to ask for fucking numbers?
Here's the number, people like YOU are the butt of the joke. I know what's in the heads of several other people here, what they think of your type; we're all thinkin the same thing, roughly stated it's "gfd how can these people be so dumb???"
Stick to pimping PMs
I'll wait for the Beer can Fusion reactor, currently being developed by these guys:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDBPvuPkjD4
I knew a couple of reactors in college
I see no benefit to the Saudis lying, it isn't like there's a cheaper alternative to oil, in fact the more volatile and more surprises in supply there is, the more they can get for their juice.
It would be in the Saudis interests to say "ya, we're maxxed out", oil would immediately shoot up to levels slightly less than the alternatives for oil, which is way more than current prices.
Muslims lying to the West?
Read somewhere over the weekend that since the muslim is President of the US, there are revolts in the Middle East which will ultimately catapult more muslim leadership to the top.
Muslim leadership controlling the cheapest global oil supply.
At least we know their end game plan.
See my post a couple down from yours. we're on the same page...
on Mon, 02/28/2011 - 17:05
#1005103
I see no benefit to the Saudis lying, it isn't like there's a cheaper alternative to oil, in fact the more volatile and more surprises in supply there is, the more they can get for their juice.
****************************************************************************
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/feb/08/saudi-oil-reserves-overstated-wikileaks
&...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wYuLjGQQ-jg
What you think... or how you feel... dont effect the real numbers.
WAKE THE FUCK UP!!!!
UNREST-UPRISING-REVOLUTION
My pony pisses oil so I will be fine. If anyone wants to invest in my pony piss, I have set up an ETF, Majackal Pony Piss (MPPS).
Is this true?
we floated it from the lil board to the big board to short it in the new retail cds market... nice, slam dunk and / or money in the bank... a lil ad time and BOOM!!!! sheep to the slaughter!
It doesn't make sense that Saudi would lie about its oil reserves - thought experiment:
If Saudi lies about having more reserves, current price of oil is lower than would be expected if the market understood Saudi to have less reserves. If the market understood Saudi to have less reserves, market would anticipate future scarcity of oil and price would adjust higher. Saudi has the oil it has; therefore, it makes no sense for them to lie about reserves. To lie about having additional reserves would in effect, lower the current price of oil and Saudi would be leaving money on the table. Therefore, I find it hard to believe Saudi would intentionally lie about reserves. Really, one might expect Saudi to indicate it maintains less reserves than it actually has to manipulate oil prices higher.
I disagree. If the Saudi's indicate that the reserves have a limited future than so does the King. The ruling family's power depends on handing out unearned wealth. If the money store closes the royal family will be lucky to get out alive.
Moreover, by exagerrating reserves they discourage investment in other countries and other technologies. If the world believe's the Saudi's are running out then more investments will flow to the deep sea rigs, to South America. That's not in the house of Saud's interest.
It's the same on the consumption side. They don't want new Prius's or grand American strategies for natural gas or some other scheme replacing petroleum. To the extent they keep oil prices in line, they discourage the development of these alternatives.
Good points, but you're missing my overall premise:
Saudi [generally] knows how much oil is really there. Therefore, regardless of the points you raise, it will still want to maximize current price to maximize revenue from the oil it still has. Overstating reserves does the opposite. If reserves were getting low, then the points you mention would come to fruition regardless. At the very least I think they're sufficiently incentivised to tell the truth. When the oil runs out - it runs out...
Saudi Arabia is both a corporation, a royal family, and a government.
They therefore have 3x the incentive to lie about anything and everything than any of the rest of us. Propoganda is like mother's milk to those guys.
They will pump oil like crazy, instigate prices along a complicated trajectory of forcings, and then run like mo'fo's when the music stops. The rest of the world will never know what hit them.
Too on time. Instant demand vs instant supply. The fact is these guys have long obligations. It puts them under a double bind as they have to keep appearing as if they can carry out their long obligations. If they say the extraction capacities are not enough not to meet their obligations in a near future, they put themselves into troubles.
Debt entangles. Dont forget they are in debt too in terms of delivery of oil or paper money.
You seem to think that price is their only concern. Don't be naive. They're up to their necks in pro-US politics. With US bases and forces on their own soil, no less. In the past, if you were around, they've repeatedly acted to Lower the oil price, as in after the 1973 embargo and in december, 1980 to end the second oil shock.
They lie because they're told. Because it would de-stabilize the apple cart if peak oil were verified to be true. It would mean the US would be without its most reliable source of oil. And guess who else now has bigger production and bigger reserves? That's right, mother Russia, who keep the lights on in both Europe and China
Another good point - if price is not the driving factor, as one would assume under normal circumstances, there must be other more important considerations influencing their decision to lie. I would agree that Saudi's ties to the U.S. could sufficiently influence them as you've described.
So the Saudis lying, big deal! How do we (Europe and US) get our energy household in order??? The Netherlands for instance only produce 4% of it's electricity trough wind energy and are heavily depandant on OIL... If the peak oil story is "true" however, we the people are in for some "rough times".
How about energy from magnet motors:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_q5ahV_SN-M&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XxZR4C9gqOY&feature=related
What about Mirror energy?
The pony solution sounds better,if only we could reproduce them.
You try to pull that shit and
Ragnar Danneskjöldis coming for John's motor.
Why would the Saudis lie about that?
The modern state of Saudi Arabia was entirely manufactured by British and US intelligence services at the end of World War I. Before that it was called 'Arabia". They backed the house of Saud in their tribal wars against others. The idea was to secure oil supply needed to combat Germany and the spread of global communism. After the war, exclusive drilling rights were accorded to Standard Oil of California and Texaco. Within a few years, they assisted Nazi Germany's military buildup (along with help from sympathizers on Wall Street and others in US industry).
Saudi Arabia's elite is fully tied in with US global interests. It's made them among the wealthiest families on the planet for three generations. You don't bite the hand that feeds you. And protects you from your enemies.
Mirror Energy thru esolar:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQXSV9yDX8g&feature=related
Already in California.
Mirror Energy thru esolar:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TQXSV9yDX8g&feature=related
Already in California.
I'd say both opinions, lying or not, are already factored into the price.
Mirror energy in Spain:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Li7dBPrjzns&NR=1
Solar energy, the greatest wealth destroying technology ever devised by man. Spain is bankrupt...
Just ask Leo, he can tell you all about them there solar panels.
Not to mention that wind bullshit that the old oilman from north Texas, Boone Pickens was talking up at one time but now has backed off mainly I believe because he can't find enough suckers to provide his idiotic ideas with capitalization.
Uh, I think when oil went from $150 to $30, it may have decreased the value of Boone's portfolio.
Ok, my original post has at least exposed some BOTS (big oil troll shills)posting here:
1/Flakmeister (lazy c#nt, will ask you to wipe his ass and google for him/her
2/ r101958 (looks to be flakmeister lapdog)
3/ mtomato2 (competes with r101958 for flakmeister's lap)
Watch out for this bunch of merry pricks to post more disinformative posts when ZH gets onto carbon trading, and try to explain why taxpayers must take it more an more up the ass.....
For the record, I have stated many times here is that Carbon Credit trading is a scam. So there, you and I can agree on a few things...
And the BOT gets caught..........never met a BOT yet that supports carbon trading, as no one likes to shit in their own nest.......
No, actually, I have called for a carbon tax which is applied to imports as well. You do know that from a carbon perspective that the US is the most efficient producer of steel? That and a few other goodies that might help rebuild the industrial infrastructure of this country.
My ciaoppino is now ready...Good night.
Well well....a BOT BB (bullshitting backflipper) .. old and tired defence troll.
YOU, are the worst case of douche this site has ever seen...
Listen, douche, if you actually believe someone like Flak is a troll, then you're the dumbest cunt to ever flap its lips.
Not one thing you have said thus far has been true, now take your bitchslap like a bitch, NOOB, and GFY
Hello fuck knuckle, is that the finger you use to stick up your ass and take deep well drill samples with in your emoticon? Then pick your nose with? The only thing you've contributed here is ........ 0.... Unless you want to start talking about refineries.... or the lack there of... waiting for proof that I'm wrong dickweed.
Free jet-energy for everybody.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_mgjSQ_JYO9w/TCE2mDmfjsI/AAAAAAAACGM/mso19OTUIS...
Don't you get it? In the big game, one has to appear bigger than one's enemies. Even if it's through bluff, bluster, saber rattling, chest thumping and shrieking. US's oil production peaked in 1970. Coincidence that the first oil shock was 3 years later? No, because by then the US was dependent on imports for 16% of its oil. As time went on the dependency expanded by leaps and bounds. The figure is now over 40%.
When Saudi's oil production peaked we were left with a dilemma. Coincidence that we invaded Iraq? (second biggest reserves in the Gulf). Doubt it.
US energy supply depends now entirely on geopolitical accords, alliances and "arrangements". Big money is passed around.
Oil is digging a base to spike higher --- WTI @ 120, brent @ 140 by the end of the month... buckle up!
At levels close to that the global economy imploded.
That wasn't the issue. You should know that.
The free money for all with a heartbeat able to sign mortgage papers was up.
Followed by banks that were loaded with garbage debt papers which imploded their balance sheets.
Salvation to this all out clusterfck was an agreement by all central bankers and governments to look the other way when new money was created out of thin air to replace the vacuum of the implosion.
It's still one big black hole that continues to suck us all down slowly..
+1 for the debt death spiral.
But , but , but Matt Smith of Summit energy said this morning on squawk box, that oil might go to 110 ish but probably will stay in the 80 ish area........no? So if that is so, because I heard it on CN bullshit, I would assume such talk like this from Jim is total bullshit???? :)
I just received my ZH drivers license yesterday and this is my first post. Let me start by saying this site kicks ass. Just like Tyler's tweets, the commentary is at once hilarious and informative.
I am by no means an expert in peak oil, but I have been avidly following the debate now for a few years and think the peakists are making more sense than people seem to want to credit them. A few thoughts. "Big oil" ain't big. Exxon doesn't even break the top 10 by reserves. http://www.petrostrategies.org/Links/Worlds_Largest_Oil_and_Gas_Companie...
Of course, all of the OPEC companies lie about their reserves because (i) they don't have the SEC or CFTC to report to, and (ii) once upon a time their OPEC allowed production was a function of their reserves and they've never retracted the lies they then uttered.
Peak oil is a geophysical certainty, it's just rather hard to predict the timing of the undoing of a thing that occurred on a geologic time scale. Once demand becomes constrained by supply we're all going to find out just how high the price can go. I believe the entire model will flip from a commodity pricing structure to an e-bay-esque auction type of model--a near "perfect monopoly" type of pricing. Because the big producing oil companies are all state owned, once the peak occurs, oil will be rationed political and there will be no market. At least today we function under the guise of free markets in oil. Post-peak, not so much.
Until the peak, wild volatility will reign. High oil prices crash economies. Deflating/crashing economies don't support high oil prices.
The world production of oil didn't peak in 1973, but U.S. production did. http://www.grinningplanet.com/2005/06-14/peak-oil-article.htm (see the middle of the page for U.S. production curve). Even the discovery of Prudhoe Bay couldn't bring back the peak. Once you're over that hump, you can't get it back.
Depletion is relentless and apparently occurring at much higher rates than previously believed. I don't have a link handy, but about two or three years ago, the IEA after much study dramatically revised upward their assumed depletion percentage, from something like 4% to about 6%, which just has a tremendous impact on presumed future available supply.
The (not so) big oil companies have had trouble keeping their reserve replacements running above their depletion. It's hard to tell, because they've been buying up reserves, but Chanos has been trading big oil on the short side because he understands that they've become or are about to become massive oil and gas trusts, slowly liquidating over time. In the last couple of years, they've been borrowing to fund cap-ex while at the same time continuing to pay sizable dividends, as if everything is just hunky dory. Eventually, that business model fails.
To an extent it does matter whether the OPEC countries want to sell oil/gasoline to their peeps on the cheap. Their economies have been quickly growing as their middle class struggles to emerge (you know, those people on FB and Twitter who seem disillusioned with their current form of governance?), and that leaves less available for net export. I think it's particularly stupid of OPEC countries to not take advantage of their relatively undeveloped infrastructure and at least attempt to leap-frog the entire concept of an oil based economy. But it's just too easy for them to use oil, and why not? It's theirs (at least until Desert Storm 3).
Whether the peak occurred last year or 10 years from now, we'd damn well better be preparing. I think we all understand how demand is destroyed. There's a lot of things I don't like about Pres O, but I think his legacy once the peak is realized, will be his jump starting or promotion of nearly every type of alternative energy. Some people just see it all as handouts, but I think some industries (electric vehicles) are competitive already if only they could get over the incumbent advantage that oil has. For example, EV batteries could be competitively priced if they could be produced at scale, but how to get to scale? Oh, a government grant, thank you DOE. Don't get me wrong, I utterly detest the idea of the government picking winners and losers in an industry that doesn't even exist yet, but that's a whole 'nother discussion.
As far as timing, I think the key is Gwar. Once that field peaks, I think the world will have peaked. What makes me think the peak is sooner rather than later is that Saudi Aramco has been waterflooding that field with over a million barrels of seawater a day for years. Water flooded fields tend to crash once they peak, but that's obviously not your normal run-of-the-mill oilfield. It's going to be very interesting to see the actual numbers that come of out the Kingdom's promise to replace Libya's exports, but different grades of oil, etc. etc. Sorry, this post has gotten way too long. My first post should have been something like "Dude, that was hiliarious" rather than a peak oil opus.
Wow. Great post. Balanced and well thought out.
Of course the trolls here will savage you for the effort. Pay them no mind.
Do post again.
I concur, welcome to the club of rationalists.
All except having to report to those two infallible Agencies that we know would never manipulate any Data. (SEC CFTC) lol
Perhaps someone needs to instruct the new poster on the use and utility of the much-loved /sarc flag.
Or it might be that the poster actually believes in the US system of oversight and regualtions in service of fairness and humanity. It makes me dewy eyed to see such abiding faith. /sarc
Here is a sarc example: (using a honest to goodness post from a zh contributor)
"The big oil leak in the gulf proves there is no such thing as peak oil"
/sarc (in my case)
An excellent example. Thank you for contributing.
Someone should compile a ZH Best Of
When it comes to government agencies, I'm not a dewey eyed optimist any more than I am a chip-on-the-shoulder conspiracy theorist who thinks every market and every law is being manipulated by "the man."
Welcome. You won't be savaged by trolls.
Peak oil was before peak whale blubber.
It's all down hill.
Lol, add ml8ml8 and cougar to the BOT list. This shit has been an old and flogged bit of dogma that has been trotted out out so many times in defence of the peak oil story. Sorry BOTS, the kids are so over that fairy tale, back to the typewriter you go.
A shill for big oil? You must have missed the part of my post where I described their business model as terminal. To reiterate, eventually investors will realize that (not so) big oil's inability to replace their reserves at a reasonable cost means they are more akin to oil and gas trusts and less like true operating companies. The big oil companies know this. It's one reason most of them (Exxon being the exxception), are investing heavily in alternative energy. Hell, Shell now owns something like 3,200 megawatts of wind generation. In case you don't follow electric utilities, that's a lot.
I'm curious if you know how well Russia is invested in wind generation?
Presumably they would be hedging to protect against potentially shrinking reserves.
Wouldn't that be a sign?
If Russia and Saudi Arabia start building windmills the tank is dry.
Also, if big oil has reduced itself to operating as an oil and gas trust on the premise that oil is a resource that is shrinking in its ability to meet future demands and is diversifying away from upstream exploration and production on these terms then an alternative premise that oil is much more abundant than thought but just at depth throws these business plans for customer retention, control and power direction downstream completely on its head correct?
Their model is evolving to downstream marketing and customer porting to smart grids for greater control. The last thing this business model would want would be upstart junior corporations and nations drilling deep to establish energy independence.
Under this scenario it is really for them to sell the plateau as a peak and then take you up another more proprietary mountain...propelled by the fear of the valley of death....
If you 've noticed, Mr. C's not very good at this subject
Ok I hate myself for asking this question but...
do you think oil comes from fossils?
Gawd, google "Oil microfossils"
The highest grade oils come from Brontosaurii livers...
Nothing like some delicious wooly mammoth meat from some frozen carcasses that are found in Siberia from time to time.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Woolly_mammoth
Srangest thing too, they were killed in a instant and were flash frozen, some of them with undigested grass in their mouths. That means the weather during that time, changed within a instant from warm to below freezing I guess. Weird.
Hmm, I sense financial opportunity, grass fed wooly mammoth steaks. $10k a lb!
Actually the Russians like it as a delicacy. It grows hair on your chest. A good thing for a slav who likes disco music.....
hulkism\
grade oils come from Brontosaurii livers
LOL
I'm not a petroleum engineer, so I don't know. Something tells me you have an opinion about it so--pray tell--where does oil come from?
I don't know. But it comes from somewhere that is for sure. PE's will tell you that it comes from fossils, just like a stock broker will tell you not to buy gold and silver. But are they naturally telling you the whole truth or are they talking their books, one because he has to, and the other because he wants to.
Oil comes from God!!
Her and her elves live far underground and they spend all day making oil for Americans to burn in their Hummers.
And in their spare time they make AK ammo.
gh
I like that russian ak ammo. Its stinky too.
Anybody checking out Will from Red Jacket Arms , on discovery channel. I want one of this Russian 12 gauge shotguns with a suppressor on it........2500.00.......ouch..........
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PNnTDVHbiZY&feature=related
then you can always add one of these... http://www.xrailbyrci.com/
now that you have 20 plus rounds... you could always add a silencer... but that takes half the fun away! the noise is half the fun!
You don't actually have to know, in advance. You could just look it up, or study geology a tiny bit, or ask someone who teaches the subject at a university. Most likely you'll get an honest and reliable answer. But just in case you do not, or have reason to suspect that someone might be yanking your chain, I will give you my personal opinion based on stuff I've read:
Oil comes from ancient shallow seabeds that have been buried under layers of sediments turn to stone, and is the remains of marine algae for the most part. Most oil deposits represent algal remains buried 60 to 200 million years ago.
Ok you guys smoked HPD out in the open now. I must swim against the prevailing attitudes and beliefs on this matter...
New study appears to support theory of abiotic oil.
Remember the blow out in the gulf last year and the methane gas escaping from the sea bed? Hmmmm......
I think that old silly and unsubstantiated fossil fuel theory seems to tie into what the world global oil cartel wants, a view that there is a limited supply of a exhaustible resource. I beg to differ on that.
Would oil companies ever lie to us? Would they ever?
http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/2009/11/new_study_appears_to_supp...
For example look what they did to Tesla. They marginalized him and swallowed up all of his research and basically tried to hide it and obvuscate it, especially when he was going around talking about providing the world with all of the free energy they could possibly want. Needless to say, his days were numbered and instead of killing him perhaps, they distracted him and threw him off course from his original plans, on purpose of course.
Telsa is one of my favorite humans. Seriously.
I don't know if he was railroaded or not. He probably was. However he never promised free energy, he was too good a physicist to do that.
He promised delivery of electricity into every home and factory without wires, from a central transmitter source, and it would be free to use exactly like commercial radio is free to listen to. Free to use of course because without the wires it would be impossible to meter! But his generators sucked power like you would not believe, they were essentially huge radio towers and the radio waves once collected could be turned back into electricity.
This should sound familiar; it is the operating principle behind the microwave oven sitting in your kitchen. So in other words Tesla was going to turn every home and factory within range of his tower into ... the world's largest microwave oven.
If he had thought it through a bit more he might have realized the problems. It didn't work out because ... it was insane. No impractical ... insane. Today people fret about the radiation from the cell phone in their pocket, imagine being bathed in gigawatts of radio waves being used to transmit usable electricity into your home, school and brain case. Shocking!
I like the guy. One of my favorite shaved apes. But he was out there, if you follow me.
Nice try, BOT. The russian deep well drilling program, found oil in 2 billion year old rock.
Life only started 1 billion years ago. You BOT'S keep on trotting out the same, tired shit, that JPM started back in the late 1800's.
EDIT: Deleted post to recalibrate...lol
Sorry dude thought you were calling HPD a 'BOT"...my bad.
on Mon, 02/28/2011 - 20:21
#1005603
Nice try, BOT. The russian deep well drilling program, found oil in 2 billion year old rock.
Life only started 1 billion years ago. You BOT'S keep on trotting out the same, tired shit, that JPM started back in the late 1800's.
*********************************************************************************
Oil... from 2 billion years ago?
you meant nuclear reactors from 2 billion years ago... fix your typo!!!!
2 Billion Year Old Nuclear Reactors Found In Africa
51 posts - 37 authors - Last post: Sep 15, 2010
Oil is natural too. No energy can be created or destroyed, ... Did they find bones of 2 billion year old enviro-nuts next to the reactors? ...
www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/2589885/posts - Cached
The Russians did nothing of the kind, there is no evidence for it, and it did not happen because it is not possible.
I guess I'll probably go with conventional science on the source of oil, though I do know you can make it with Algae, but it's still pretty expensive to do so. If oil does come from abiotic sources, I doubt any oil company would have been able to keep a lid on that knowledge no matter how hard they tried, because, at $100/bbl, there's way to much incentive to exploit that knowledge for gain. If that knowledge were being exploited on any kind of widespread basis, why then it would be more common knowledge than it apparently is. /But who knows, maybe after pumping hundreds of millions of barrels from their super secret deep-drill rigs, the big oil companies killed everyone involved.
Or maybe Lake Vostok is filled with oil... http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2011-02/winter-ices-lake-vostok-dr...
...though I'm hoping it's a lake full of super-chilled Vodka.
From a western perspective, oil companies don't really care or research how oil is produced geologically. It's more of an ad hoc riff on a cooking over geologic time of kerogen which is found in the sedimentary rock that serves as the oil reservoir, as it does for water as well.
It's all about the target and the structure. Acquisition and exploitation, as soon as possible.
They know they can't grow it so it's all in the harvest.
Only the Russians examined and pioneered the deep earth science behind the abiotic theory so that in less than 20 years after the deep freeze of bankster imposed communism was lifted and the science was robustly applied, Russia officially became the world's largest exporter of oil. Perhaps not a coincidence.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/sep/13/russia-oil-exports-eu
Chanos is a smart guy. Here's a link to the article which broke the story as to his being short xom-
http://www.businessinsider.com/jim-chanos-shorting-exxon-2010-6
June 2010 was the date, absolutely the worst possible time to be short xom, unless of course you covered immediately after the interview, which he may have. The stock has run from 55 then, to 85 now.
If in fact escalating oil prices choke off any potential recovery and send the economy back into a depression, shorting XOM will work. I'll bet it will take less than 150 per barrel in this weak recessionary environment, perhaps quite a bit less. Timing this perfectly may be difficult.
Are you kidding?!
This was the *awesomest* way to pop your ZH cherry! Great post!
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on Mon, 02/28/2011 - 18:12
#1005297
I just received my ZH drivers license yesterday and this is my first post. Let me start by saying this site kicks ass. Just like Tyler's tweets, the commentary is at once hilarious and informative.
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you forgot the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orinoco_Belt and off shore brazil... but you are here to contribute and try..
which is a good start!
now suprise me.
Welcome!
ok, what is the over/under on oil threads before this guy is just telling people to STFU?
Give yourself to the dark side...it is the only way
I'm not affraid of peak oil. There will still be plenty of affordable oil for legitimate free market production when governments go bankrupt and won't be spending (ie: using energy) for stupid unproductive crap like they do now to the tune of half the countries' GDP.
Are they lying? At the end of the day the common man will never know the truth about oil reserves. The control of this information is power. We can't even be sure who, if anyone, knows the truth.
It is one big carnival game. And that is one of the really neat things about oil as a fuel source.
The House of Saud would never lie to anyone. After all they are the keepers of the flame in Mecca.
Knowledge about the level of true reserves and production is certainly power, and that is why the Saudi's are, at best not forthcoming, and at worst bald faced lying, about that information. S.A. gets huge advantage by virtue of its status as the world's swing producer of oil. Swing producer = controller of price. Imagine the power that flows from being able to set the price of oil. It almost makes my head explode just thinking about it. IMHO, the Saud's careful guarding of their prime position is a major piece of noise in the information flow in trying to determine when peak oil has actually occurred or will occur. The King won't be putting out a presser when it happens. They'll want to maintain that illusion for as long as possible. Even if they did issue a presser, NO ONE WOULD BELIEVE THEM. Everyone would just believe they were lying to drive up prices. I seriously doubt they would annouce it, even if they knew themselves. For awhile they may make more money from the increase in price, but they also know after the true peak is realized and the markets go apeshit, that everything gets highly political and militaristic from that point forward and their power, political and economic, will be forever diminished.
I purchased 60 ounces of silver today. Judging from my other investment decisions this could be the top.
Man is it heavy!
Wasn't the "one ring to rule them all" made out of silver? Bilbo and Frodo said it was heavy too.
you guys are all freaking out because rogers told you something sensible. reading the comments is like looking into a pail of worms and watching them wriggle in their brainless motions
The Fed Bank is fighting furiously to hold oi prices down but physical demand is too strong this time around and supplies are rapidly decreasing.
Oil is the "lifeblood of the military" Rumsfeld said...that's why Obama, Germany and NATO are surrounding Libya with troops to invade---for that precious oil.
Prices will keep going up for all these reasons including a collapsiong dollar as The Bernank prints 24/7.
If gas increases by 50%, I won't be affected that much. I drive an efficient car, and live about a ten minute drive from work. I can go almost two weeks on a tank. I'd rather live in less built up area, but I would have to pay for that in terms of added fuel costs. Living close to work is a near term hedge for me.
If oil becomes a real problem, and there is real economic upheaval, I may no longer have a job to go to. I am hedging against this by investing in PMs. I sacrifice spending cash on things I may want now, in order to preserve wealth for the future.
You have to be prepared to make trade offs. Ok, well, you don't have to. You could always continue to insist that the next big find is just around the corner and see how that goes.
Moammar Gadhafi has stated numerous times he thought his country would be invaded like Iraq was.
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20110228/D9LLTQBG0.html
The jewish mercenary armies of Nato are now assembling near Libya.....
As I have stated before. So much for democracy and freedom in the middle east. Oh they tell the sheeple. Hey we like you and we are here to help you, against this evil dictator. The Libyan people had better declare war in two directions ,against this nato confligration and against Gadhafi...........
the saudi's are a joke...a bad one
Do you think the house of Saud is Arabic?
No.
I will start watching news programs when people like Jim,Marc,and Peter
are the hosts! Guess they are trying to pull a G.S. on the public, and get someone else to be the other side of the trade.
US government could cut the price of oil in half in a day either by announcing aggressive offshore drilling,
or aggressive building of nuke plants.
the stampede to the exits fr the peak oil idiots would the most entertaining financial story of the century.
Try harder. Nuke plants make electricity, not gasoline.
Offshore drilling won't add very much oil at all to what we have. It's knowable. Spend a few minutes researching before posting on it. If there really was that much oil offshore, they'd already be drilling. Pesky environmentalists have never stopped fortune 50 corporations before.
Right except no nuke plants, the obvious energy of the future built in the US since 1979. Nothing to do with environmentalists though, just like harnessing the power of oceanic tides has nothing to do with the agenda ridden tree huggers.
No need to try harder a mere pronouncement by the FED and the price drops like a rock.
But thanks for regurgitating the mindless propaganda for the 10millionth time here. I get it, one needs to be a super informed intellectual to get the cries from chicken little.
They don't pay academic theoretical idiots to do studies to prove otherwise.
Maybe you should look up what is the potential of the OCS. Denial is no longer just a river in Egypt...
For some reason the thought of killing zombies on my game console in a post-apocalyptic U.S.A. town seems appealing right about now...
The world as we know it is coming to an end for the 100,000,000th time in my lifetime.
Between the Lord of the Ring refs and the video games refs it's obvious the institutional brain washing has taken full hold in modern education.
Who could have guessed that Joe Granville had so many offspring?
Same, tired old BOT story/fable being pushed out about Libya/Iraq etc being invaded etc for oil,
try the real reason, they were all trying/considering to trade oil in euros........
explain how the two motives are mutually exclusive
http://www.nextenergynews.com/news1/next-energy-news2.13s.html
Massive oil find in North Dakota.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/09/02/us-bp-idUSTRE58133V20090902
massive oil deposits under gulf.
http://www.rense.com/general69/noncrisis.htm
massive oil supplies north slope
http://www.rumormillnews.com/cgi-bin/archive.cgi/noframes/read/87884
absolutey monstrous oil deposits under Rocky Mountains.
on and on it goes.
shall i continue? :)
I could find oil in my back yard...
But until I build a pipeline to my front yard and a refinery... all that shit I found dont do a damn bit of good... and if my back yard is underneath the fucking rocky mountains... it aint gonna cost no $50bbl by the time I get that shit to market.. you get me Hoss?
I'm not some big freaky peak oilist arguing that peak oil has already occurred. I just think it might be imminent (say within the next 10 years), and it's better to be safe than sorry given the potential disruption that an unexpected peak oil occurrence would cause.
People tend to over estimate the impact of any particular oil find, which the big oil companies love to tout as "massive" in order to drive their stock price. In the interest of time, let's take the first two you referenced. I'll start with the second. "Massive" BP oil find in the gulf. Assuming BP is still allowed to pump oil out of the gulf, the find was an estimated 868 million barrels of oil. The world consumes 88 million barrels/day, so 868 million barrels will last the world approximately 9.8 days. Of course, it's going to take probably 4 years before the oil even starts flowing (that was the estimate before BP's little incident in the gulf last summer). Deep water drilling is a bitch that way.
The first one, much more significant. The Bakkan Shale in N.D. Huge oil field, domestic, inland, wildly important to the U.S. Drilling out this oil requires innovative techniques, but it seems like most of that is pretty well established at this point, and the environmental damage pretty much ignored so lets move on. Best case scenario based on various studies http://www.nd.gov/ndic/ic-press/bakken-form-06.pdf say 300 billion barrels of which 50% are recoverable. Now we're talking. Of course, the estimates range as low as 32 billion barrels and 3% recoverable, but let's go with 300 and 50%. Assuming all of that oil were immediately accessible, that's enough to supply the world for 4.6 years (at 88m bpd). The max production rate estimated is 10 million bpd, which means they'll be producing oil out of those wells for about 15 years. Just for reference, average depletion of 6% worldwide means, on an 88 million bpd production rate, that each year the world needs to find another 5.8 million bpd of production flow rate to meet depleted production capacity.
The reference to the oil reserves in Colorado, I believe is referring to shale oil which has been known about for decades, but to get that oil requires massive heating (even more than oil sands) and difficult processing, making the return on energy invested practically a wash.
I hope technology progresses to the point where that oil shale is usable. It would be great. But in the meantime, relentless depletion means we need to find another Bakkan somewhere in the world about every 4 years, and that's assuming we can get the field to quickly produce at high rates. For some reason, oil fields that large seem to be getting harder to find or are found in places that are wildly expensive to drill. And the marginal cost sets the price.
Rumor has it that Dow-Kokam has a really sweet EV battery with a 250 mile range coming to a normal looking car near you soon.
hey man, you seem like a smart guy and you mean well, so I'll say this nicely- do not ever divide reserves by consumption to get lifespan, ok?
Just a description of size of a find relative to world consumption. I understand its about the flow rate and reserves divided by consumption is not lifespan. Not trying to dumb it down, but people seem to say "oh great, a 'massive' oil find, oil problem solved...." And then you provide 9.8 days as a description of relative size, and they get it.
The average level of intelligence on this blog is FAR higher than most. The average level of courtesy? Not so much. Thank you for being courteous. You distinguish yourself from the trolls.
Scary, eh?
Trav has been dealing with moon-bat crazy loons here for a while. I guess his patience is shot or he is dealing with them in terms they can relate to. However, he was far nicer to you than he was to me :)
Trav, a little Obi-wan sneaking through?
Uh yeah, I see Trav's post immediately below this one. He obviously has a low tolerance for stupidity.
HPD, are you COMPLETELY fucking stupid?
I mean, that's it, isn't it? I've finally figured it out, you guys are fuckin idiots. I took those links apart the LAST time you spammed the last oil thread with them. It was abundantly clear when I clicked the first one and read into the article that you had either a) not read them b) failed to understand them, or c) both.
They, and you, are a joke! The first link is from 2008 discussing the USGS's imminent release of a paper talking about Bakken reserves...this was like OVER TWO YEARS AGO, MORON.
Fuck me, you are irredeemably stupid. Shall you continue? No, for the love of GOD please do not. Just STFU and go away.
What one smart guy said on oil 150$ is that it never will happend,untill the gas prices at 4$ or around it and gas supply is plenty,no,when oil collapsed to 35$ no one wanted to buy oil,suddenly all countries was scared to buy and dates had show what was real price to pump oil:16-20$,so,it was talks about if it profitable or not to pump at 35$,however then all countries decided to print money together to save economy,as result all traders switched into game,inlcuding tankers standing in the ocean unable to reload the oil into ports as ports authorities was not giving "green light" by special order......we all knowing same thing at oil 142$ and standing tankers in ocean,game ended simply.As about Jim Rogers,i can tell you few things,yes,he is a smart guy and pay attention to what he says-in decade,short term he accept gold to go even 800(and many thoose who with him in same camp),but what do you think if President again play same thing as in 2008 when the part of strategic reserve was off loaded into the markets which immeduately collapsed from 140$ into 35$ during some year,some comrad of mein who was trading in the Hunts times silver ,he is 76,started trading at 17,was telling to me to buy oil at 100$ levels telling me that it can not go lower......imagine what brainwash policies was in work that even the guy like this pissed off?But i said him:Shy,i think it will going much lower.....He got margin call in the night on market squeeze,at the morning his portfolio was doing fine,but........in the night it was sold off.
So for guys please to be ready for same kind of things,be ready now for the short squeeze which can come also on mr.Jim Roger,US Government much more powerfull that any big hedge fund or group of the hedge funds,Hunts was killed in silver market and this bull market also could be killed as China fails,overproduction and oversupply,no demand.Remember how aveporated "demand" in 2008???We are going in the same spin,Dow going to 2014-2016 in 550-600,then we start recovery......Even Baffet and he is much more smart guy that Rogers was looser on US$ position which he kept for a few years and was preasured to close it(as futures built on premium and he had pay huge money on premium),just few months after the dollar started its rally up and Baffet was squeezed.Think of it,government has access to all dates on markets and can use orinted money to short any markets or commodities without affraid,also most gold companies is hedged with production to the banks,alot of production coming into the market and people can not afford this prpaganded high cost gold and silver,as i told you,before NY in Moscow jeweliers could not sell gold,they made 50% discounts to attract people,if we are leaving in times of the food shortages-believe me,first thing people will buy is to stock the food and in my view this is what governments want us to do now and what many idiot did,thats whay because thise panic many food items too went up,many countries distroying own agreeculture in order to get more expensive fruits and vegetables from outside(what perpose ?probably better control or come policies),I just telling to you-be aware,as Bull market of the Warren Baffet and Jim Rogers may to be ending in nearest months,big guys is a big money-all they want to have even more money,listen to them,but think yourself
The US will bust before China does. Maybe China will bust the US too and then bust themselves.
It is not hard to be long oil, gold, silver or any other dollar based commodity right now and the not hard side is usually not the right side.
upps,you right,too much scream
and I just tell you one more thing,the exploration companies-true birds of the bull commodities was going as crazy up in 2001-2003,2004-2006,but look what is going on with it now-i had a bunch of the exploration stock just at 2007 june,about 20,on average the stock fallen from 1.40$ to 14c,till now i see none of thoose stockes recovered more that 15-25% from the 2008 lows,while producers and pre-production companies went up by hundreds %.The way exploration stocks dead is the answer to commodities bull-its short leaving bull
http://www.vacationideas.me/asia/the-door-to-hell-burning-gas-crater-dar...
Russian gas well fire burns for 37 years in Darvaza, Turkmenistan. That is 38 years or more now I guess. So perhaps someone can tell me do they think that this "perishable and valuable" commodity is in short supply?
I am long oil and everything else (physical) but you need to do your own research ...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mE3v2xAqSmw
"Gold will certainly go over $2,000 by the end of the decade, and silver will pass $50."
End of the decade?
Hell, how bout end of this year?
The more I read about Abiotic oil the more I think there's something to it. The Russians are doing it and laughing at us.
I'm skeptical with a science background, but Abiotic oil is very very interesting. (F*ck the Saudis)
If Abiotic oil was abundant would TPTB even tell us? (Think, De Beers and diamond values)
Here's a couple non-technical articles I ran across. Also discussed in Economist and Nature.
Petroleum geology: The argument needs oiling | The Economist
Abiotic Oil and Gas: A Theory That Refuses to Vanish | Energy and Environment Right Side News
The Russians drilled deep and found oil. Think deep like "Deep Horizon" in the Gulf of Mexico (10,000+ feet). Did plant or animal life ever exist that deep in the earth? Obviously not. Other planets and their moons have pools of methane and other hydrocarbons. Did life ever exist on these planets and moons? Obviously not.
The Earth is growing, just like the Trees.
Plate tectonics ftw
How do you think the planet greases those skids?...lol
Basic physics still applies. Follow this carefully:
1) Oil contains energy, we know that because when we burn it we get more energy out than we put in (a tiny spark will do the trick)
2) Energy does not come from nothing. It comes from some other energy source. The earth is made of rock, the only energy source it produces itself is the heat of nuclear energy from radioactive decay. Radioactive decay gives rise to less energetic particles, and neutrons which create heat. It does not create more energetic compounds, only smaller atoms.
3) The only other energy source on earth is the sun. Surface stones bathed in sunlight do not produce oil, if they did we would notice. And if they did, there would be oil on the surface of the earth rather than at depth, which is not the case in most cases.
4) Plants are quite good at collecting sunlight and converting sun energy into chemical bonds using carbon atoms to create sugars, starches and cellulose. Long carbon chains is exactly what we find in oil. Plants even produce oils directly as a storage mechanism for the energy, and we can collect plant oils and burn them for fuel and we do this on a huge scale.
Given all the above, abiotic oil not only violates several fundamental physical realities, it simply is not the simplest answer to the question of where does oil come from. The simplest answer is that it comes from plants, and is stored sunlight. How the plant material becomes buried is a question best answered by geology; the earth's crust is restless, it is constantly moving and folding in on itself (earthquakes anyone?) and over geologic time this is enough to bury a fraction of the earth's plant production in deeper strata, which while it is a small amount of material is sufficient to have given us a real energy bonanza for 100 years once we got onto the game.
QED
The earth's interior is a cauldron of energy...mantle...upper mantle...volcano...boom!
That's a lot of energy.
The intense heat and pressure of the upper mantle is only now just being understood.
e.g. http://arstechnica.com/science/news/2011/02/revising-the-current-view-of...
If oil is a drug (and it is) think of the Earth's upper mantle as potentially the ultimate meth lab
While that is a nice picture, the energy in question is not magical. It is nuclear. Nuclear energy is not a source of hydrocarbons anywhere on this planet, period. There is no mechanism known to either chemistry or physics that could generate long chain hydrocarbons from nuclear decay. Simple as that.
Long chain carbon compounds are produced by the gigaton annually by plants, using only sunlight and carbon dioxide.
That is the origin of all the petroleum reserves on the planet earth; plants.
Mystery solved.
Did you look at the link?
Your supposition is that only nuclear energy is inside the Earth? Volcanoes are nuclear explosions?
There is tremendous heat and pressure (energy!) in the upper mantle that are conditions that have never been duplicated on the surface in a laboratory situation until just now with sulphur and it is creating forms of the element never encountered outside of those conditions.
At the Earth's surface graphite is found in a pencil but exposed to the pressure deep inside the Earth it is transformed into a diamond. That's a transformation that didn't require nuclear decay. Imagine heat and pressure similarly applied to hydrogen and carbon sourced inorganically.
Your premise is very limited and serves only to support your assumption that petroleum's source material is organic and biogenic in nature.
Nuclear decay as the only source of energy deep in the Earth is a radioactive herring.
You do not understand the differences between phase changes, chemical changes, and atomic decay. One does not lead to another. They are distinct and work at different energy levels. Nuclear decay isn't even an energy event, it just happens to create heat when energetic neutrons released are absorbed by other atoms nearby. Sheesh.
Diamond and graphite and coal and oil are all carbon compounds. Diamond is created when pressures reorder the atomic structure of pure carbon (graphite is one form) into another kind of crystalline alignment. It's not even chemistry anymore, just a phase change, pushing atoms around.
I don't get it. This is really simple stuff. My 10 year old knows most of this already.