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Jim Rogers Says He Plans To Short Treasurys As Soon As This Afternoon

Tyler Durden's picture


And so the Bill Gross juggernaut begins rolling.  Reuters reports that "Influential investment veteran Jim Rogers said on Tuesday he plans to short U.S. Treasuries as soon as this afternoon as he expects the end of quantitative easing to pressure government bonds." Odd. Where have we written/heard that before. But of course, who listens to Bill Gross (the largest bond manager in the world) and Jim Rogers (the co-founder of Quantum) - surely they are no-nothing fools (who just happen to agree with our initial assessment that in the absence of QE2 all bets will be off). Reuters adds: "Rogers said he expects the U.S. dollar to rally when the Federal Reserve's unconventional monetary measure ends in June. "I'm not short bonds yet but I plan to short bonds - maybe this afternoon if I get around to it," Rogers told Reuters Insider television." Recently Jim Rogers correctly pointed out that silver is not in a bubble (a finding confirmed yesterday by Zero Hedge when we demonstrated that non-commercial spec longs in silver are at 2 year low) and continues to be long precious metals until such time as silver really hits the parabolic phase, well north of $100 (by which point the dollar will likely be confetti anyway). So as ever more influential asset managers turn outright hostile on rates, just how much longer will the Fed's vol selling yield suppression scheme work for?


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Tue, 05/10/2011 - 17:54 | 1260714 IdioTsincracY
IdioTsincracY's picture

Here comes the push for QE3!

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 17:54 | 1260722 Gene Parmesan
Gene Parmesan's picture

My thoughts exactly.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:50 | 1260896 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

Corporations Own the Lobby!

The Lobby Owns the Government!

Law Enforcement works for the Duly Elected Lobby Whores!

We the People = Screwed!


The Senate is trying to HIDE!! HUGE!!! Contribution Dollars from Government “Military” Contractors with the Argument of “Free Speech”


Social Security - Robbing The Middle Class  $2.5 Trillion Dollar Surplus! Money! You have I.O.U.'s NOT! a Surplus!  Treasury Direct $14 Trillion Debt /   $15 Trillion in Loans /  / ='s $29T ---------------------------------------> Iran says $30+ Trillion.. Miami Metro Dade Police Predator Drone on Patrol & coming to a City near YOU! NEXT! (YouTube Video) Why does the military train to rescue bankers?


Have a Political View? Share this view on Twitter or Blog? **YOU!** are a Terrorist PER Homeland Security See Link(s) and Official Report(s).


I can post more but the facts are these...

1. The Government is Bought and Paid for! but Corporations that have a 0% FED window to draw down from to pay for their Lobby with that "We the People" backstop.

2. The Poor have nothing left to steal so on to the Middle the Blood Suckers Go!

3. The Monies being stolen are FUCKING STAR WARS NUMBERS!

4. The Government is treating "We the People" like they treat Terrorists in war time theatre of operations.

5. The Fact that you are reading this post of mine! puts you on a list and makes you a Home Grown Terrorist, see the links for Home Land Securities own words..

6. watch this video for some good facts.. its long, but it touches on a lot!

Death of America Movie “Fall of the Republic” HQ full length version


&! if you still think that tax cuts are the answer... General Electric $14.2 Billion in Profits, Pays $0 in U.S. Taxes

$39M Dollar Lobby in 2010 $14B in Profits =’s NO TAXES PAID!

$10 billion sale of F.D.I.C.-backed debt


Tue, 05/10/2011 - 19:03 | 1260921 augie
augie's picture

do you have a blog or something? All this good info and i end up losing it in the malstrom.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 20:00 | 1261057 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

I do not have a blog.. I am just an old timer here who is pro active in spreading the truth.

I now tweet and try to get people to come here.


I leave the heavy lifting for Tyler and the guys! I just cheerlead! I have the legs for it.

Wed, 05/11/2011 - 05:09 | 1262071 BlackholeDivestment
BlackholeDivestment's picture

Well done...

Wed, 05/11/2011 - 07:45 | 1262221 synonym
synonym's picture

Yes, thanks. Appreciated. Keep up the good work and the routines...

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 19:10 | 1260935 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Yeah, baby.

Just thought I'd respond in case I failed to get on the list for any of the 6,985 infractions I have committed.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 19:36 | 1260986 flacon
flacon's picture

Jim Rogers Says He Plans To Short Treasurys As Soon As This Afternoon


Good. Blow that fuckin shit up! It's high time that people were punished for buying the debt of another. Thats buying and selling of human souls. Mankind doesn't deserve to be enslaved like that - even though they want to. What is slavery anyway? (Buying and selling of human souls). 



Tue, 05/10/2011 - 23:56 | 1261775 OldPhart
OldPhart's picture

It gets worse...

How about MERS running investments based on your life?


Wed, 05/11/2011 - 06:30 | 1262124 MaximumPig
MaximumPig's picture

So punish the buyers but reward the sellers?  

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 19:56 | 1261045 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Actually you make a good case that massive tax cuts are the answer.

If the government is totally broke and has no money to give away to lobbyists or special interests they will go away.

Nobody lobbies a bum.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 19:29 | 1260979 kengland
kengland's picture

That's not his opinion as of yesterday! LMAO

9:40 in

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 19:42 | 1260999 Sam Clemons
Sam Clemons's picture

If bonds sell off, they'll manufacture a recession or something to soften metals and equity prices, draw investors to the "safe" haven bonds, and provide some room for QE3 - 9000 in terms of inflation.



Tue, 05/10/2011 - 22:55 | 1261563 bigelkhorn
bigelkhorn's picture


The QE3 yes, most people think like sheep, and they want you to think its going to end. Traders are giong to get reamed, just watch!


That guy from FFT is oz is good, I been following him for a while and he called the market crash in 2008. 


I belong to his membership site, its awesome and has live videos and everything to follow along. Makes it

easy to take money from the market even if you are a newbie!. 


His new monthly trading club is opening tomorrow, and over at :-


Tue, 05/10/2011 - 17:56 | 1260719 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

See, see......

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 17:53 | 1260720 InconvenientCou...
InconvenientCounterParty's picture

It seems the only thing that supports the $ these days is military conflict.

Uh oh.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 17:57 | 1260724 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

if we stopped war, the system would die. perhaps it has been this way for a very long time now.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:50 | 1260895 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture


Tue, 05/10/2011 - 19:11 | 1260939 cossack55
cossack55's picture


Tue, 05/10/2011 - 20:35 | 1261124 Don Quixotic
Don Quixotic's picture

All due respect, but the system would be healthier today if some sheister hadn't sabotaged the Maine. We would have been just fine withouth the Spanish American War... the rich would have been a little worse off, but then no country has been worse off for losing the top 5% while every country has been worse off for attacking the middle 50%.

Wed, 05/11/2011 - 04:07 | 1262023 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Remember the Virginius!

Wed, 05/11/2011 - 02:24 | 1261961 The Navigator
The Navigator's picture


Tue, 05/10/2011 - 19:52 | 1261027 Pepe
Pepe's picture

JUST LIKE "1984"

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:00 | 1260736 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture


Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:25 | 1260828 Lets_Eat_Ben
Lets_Eat_Ben's picture

War and normalcy bias (denial)

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:40 | 1260866 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

I am very worried (more so than usual), that they will engineer another major false flag event.  Say what you will about Alex Jones, but he has been right about a lot, like his prediciton in July 2001 of a false flag attack.


I think the Bin Laden bullshit story in Pakistan is going to escalate into conflict with a nuclear armed state, and a false flag detonation on US soil.  WW3 here we come.


Time to get drunk

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:47 | 1260889 augie
augie's picture

Cheer up brother, Still cold beer to drink and skirt to chase.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:54 | 1260891 Texas Gunslinger
Texas Gunslinger's picture

carnival-barking bozo.



Tue, 05/10/2011 - 19:05 | 1260927 augie
augie's picture

Hey Tex, hows it hangin?

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 19:12 | 1260940 cossack55
cossack55's picture

I'd wager, limply.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 23:06 | 1261610 Hugh G Rection
Hugh G Rection's picture

Dungslinger, you're one person I hope is directly in the blast radius

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 23:10 | 1261633 ManOfBliss
ManOfBliss's picture

I double that.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 23:12 | 1261631 ManOfBliss
ManOfBliss's picture


Wed, 05/11/2011 - 01:09 | 1261881 baby_BLYTHE
baby_BLYTHE's picture

I like Alex Jones for the simple fact he his got young people excited about important issues. I am not a fan of his radio show anymore due the incinsistances and his delivery.

If not for Alex Jones and the type of supporter he has garnered we might not be seeing a loley 75 year old outspoken Texas congressman front running the GOP for 2012.

Fall of the Republic was an awesome film for describing the Federal Reserve and their role in creating the crisis. Plus Max Keiser and Webster Tarpley as show stealers!

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 20:10 | 1261078 I did it by Occident
I did it by Occident's picture

The spice must flow!

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 17:54 | 1260721 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

Where have I heard this before?

Oh yeah, any minute now.

Jim, just STFU and do it.


Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:03 | 1260748 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

Back then the 10yr yield was about 3.95%.


2 years later there is another $3T in US Treasuries floating around.


Come on Jim...SHORT IT!  Be straw that breaks the camels back.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:09 | 1260778 Boston
Boston's picture


Scott Minerd, Guggenheim, laid out a BULLISH argument for the next several months in last week's Barron's.

That said, I slashed my net long position yesterday, looking to re-enter (long) on a pullback over the next week or so.

No shorting until QE3 gets "pre-announced".

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:13 | 1260782 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

Exactly, USTs will rally once the money printing is done.  Just like last spring.  No different.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 17:55 | 1260725 Nolsgrad
Tue, 05/10/2011 - 17:57 | 1260726 Liberty
Liberty's picture

Why would he want to be short treasuries if he expects the dollar to rally?

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 17:59 | 1260734 6 String
6 String's picture

....because if it doesn't make sense, then the trade will always work in this market.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:21 | 1260817 NidStyles
NidStyles's picture

Note the time disparity between "this afternoon", May 10th 2011, and this June when QE2 ends.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:43 | 1260873 DK Delta
DK Delta's picture

Because, you can short the long end of the curve and still be long the dollar with short-term treasuries. If you are betting on a steepening of the yield curve there is nothing inconsistent here.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 17:56 | 1260731 nope-1004
nope-1004's picture

But, but.... Becky Quick, the manager of..... some kind of fund??? or a purse?? said silver was in a bubble.

Ahhh, who to believe.


Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:04 | 1260754 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

becky quick is the oracle of omaha's private nurse........

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:28 | 1260838 Lets_Eat_Ben
Lets_Eat_Ben's picture

Becky Quick is the whore of Babylon

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 17:57 | 1260738 Liberty
Liberty's picture

Why would he want to be short treasuries if he expects the dollar to rally?

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:37 | 1260864 tao400
tao400's picture

Because when the treasury goes down, interest rates go up. when interest goes up the dollar rallies or gets stronger.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:45 | 1260882 DK Delta
DK Delta's picture

finally, someone gets it

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 19:24 | 1260965 T-NUTZ
T-NUTZ's picture

um...  geezus dude.

let's ask a real question.  why would he be long PM's if he expects the dollar to rally?

Wed, 05/11/2011 - 05:39 | 1262090 schizo321437
schizo321437's picture

He expects QE to get reenacted.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:00 | 1260739 TK7936
TK7936's picture

And the Afternoon is sooner in Singapor

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:06 | 1260773 augie
augie's picture

Sounds like a slogan from the tourism department.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:01 | 1260742 Smartie37
Smartie37's picture

It's a wonderful day in the neighborhood !

Won't you be..................

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:02 | 1260746 Franken_Stein
Franken_Stein's picture


Jim Rogers to UST:

Geed, geed !


Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:00 | 1260747 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

Excellent, perhaps we can end this tradgedy that much sooner, and work on fixing this country. Shorting US treasuries will be a profitable strategies for years to come.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:13 | 1260781 fellatio is not...
fellatio is not fattening's picture

I remember when I started working as a broker, there were still 30 yr treasuries that were issued when interest rates were 15-18%, they were priced at between 130 to 160 and I thought thats nuts, they mature at par, Now that rates are low again and when rates rise long bonds are toast, if the 30 yr int rate goes to 6 1/2-7% the longer dated bonds will be trading at 50, so simply short when rates begin to creep up and eventually cover short and buy back at 50 than ride to maturity, it's not sexy and you have to be patient, but if you can double $$ on way down, than double $$ back up relatively risk free,  why not?

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:23 | 1260823 unununium
unununium's picture

> when rates begin to creep up

Well, today is your day then.  Or could "creep up" not be that easy to identify?

I completely agree with the trade -- just not that it's easy to time.


Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:02 | 1260751 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

Deleted by poster.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:04 | 1260753 Smartie37
Smartie37's picture


Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:02 | 1260755 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Yesterday in a Globe and Mail interview Mr. Rogers also noted that Natural Gas was something he was looking at:

I know I've been harping on gold, silver, and oil but what is your favourite commodity? The one you think that has the most upside long term?

Rogers: If I were looking for new commodities now I would start by looking at the things that are depressed. Natural gas, you picked an obvious place to start, I would look at things like rice, rice is very depressed ... silver's cheaper than gold on a historic basis.

In whether he sold commodities in down draft last week:

Rogers: No, no, no I have not sold any commodities. I protect myself by being short ... in other things. I am nearly always short something. I'm nearly always long something, fortunately my shorts went down too last week.

Whole interview is here:

Wed, 05/11/2011 - 02:39 | 1261968 The Navigator
The Navigator's picture

Yeah, I really don't get it - oil and gas up but natural gas down

If any out there can explain - is it that natural gas is such a limited market?

Jim Rogers IS a guy I listen to - he doesn't give out direct advice but I've profited by dissecting the - 'tween the lines' stuff he's said.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:03 | 1260760 InconvenientCou...
InconvenientCounterParty's picture

It seems the only thing that supports the $ these days is military conflict.

Uh oh.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:05 | 1260761 Franken_Stein
Franken_Stein's picture


Jim Rogers to UST:

Geed, geed !


Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:04 | 1260764 kito
kito's picture

if shtf, and people run from stocks and commodities, that will strengthen treasuries, not weaken them. and arent markets forward looking? why hasnt the stock, bond (supposedly the smartest of all markets) or commodities markets crashed already? doom shouldve been priced in already

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:15 | 1260787 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

There is still money being printed, it takes a while before the high octane money burns off.  Look at last spring, it took a few weeks before the cratering started.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:28 | 1260826 magpie
magpie's picture

and there's always QE by proxy / outsourced

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:06 | 1260771 bob_dabolina
bob_dabolina's picture

Short Treasuries like 100 shares of TBT or short Treasuries as in....shorting Treasuries?

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 19:17 | 1260918 unununium
unununium's picture

I thought you had to be a big swinging dick to actually short Treasuries.  What's the difference between doing that and borrowing at government rates?

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 21:11 | 1261193 Boston
Boston's picture

Sell the nearby futures June 5yr, 10yr, 30yr, etc.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:09 | 1260772 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

You could set your watch to Jimbo.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:06 | 1260775 CapTool
CapTool's picture

Maybe that explains the pop in vol in treasurys etfs the last two days. Going back to look at volume.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:08 | 1260776 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

"maybe this afternoon if I get around to it"

What, if he isn't too busy being on the TeeVee? That's a really bizarre statement to make (though I realize that Jim frequently makes off-hand statements).

I just wonder how long Bill & Jim expect to be short before QE3 makes them cover?

"Load up the big guns, boys, we're going after Dollahzilla!"

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:08 | 1260779 Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture

TD.... thanks for what you do!

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:34 | 1260843 Rynak
Rynak's picture


I may have two or three articles called rubbish, but who is perfect? You're putting out great articles way ahead of almost every other source on the net by the dozen per day.... thats "perfect enough" for me. Thank you!

Wed, 05/11/2011 - 02:47 | 1261974 The Navigator
The Navigator's picture

Good on you - too few of us say it, so I'll second that, Thanks TD.

If there is a crystal ball helping us see just a bit ahead, it's ZH.

And tho some ZHer's get sidetracked with 'off-topics' sometimes, I appreciate reading most of the comments and learning different perspectives.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:13 | 1260783 bogey4
bogey4's picture

"... maybe this afternoon if I get around to it (?)"  WTF?  If he really had any kind of conviction, he wouldn't have said anything before he shorted them, not that he could move a market that size anyway, but just out of a natural sense that you don't talk about your trades until after you've put them on.

It sounds like he's talking out his ass.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:19 | 1260799 magpie
magpie's picture

Gross' call hasn't been right the last few weeks either.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:18 | 1260807 magpie
magpie's picture


Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:30 | 1260842 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

It sounds like he has been short for ages and starting to bleed. He should stick to long term calls on commodities. I cant recall the last time he was right on fx , bonds or stocks.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:15 | 1260790 Zerohedgefunder
Zerohedgefunder's picture

My offer this: nothing.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:22 | 1260811 Lets_Eat_Ben
Lets_Eat_Ben's picture

Hey Jim buy a couple hundred million ounces of Silver would ya?

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:34 | 1260853 kito
kito's picture

he already has and bought it at 3 bucks

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:26 | 1260827 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

Gross and Rogers will be stopped out before they're right on US govvies blowing up. For a start , Rogers has been wrong for a long time on bonds. And Gross is increasingly resembling a man who knows he is fucked if he does , fucked if he doesnt.

You'll see mid 2s and eventually a 1 handle on 10 year yields before the Fed are forced to blow the whole world up.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 19:02 | 1260915 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

I'll second the 2s, but onezies means we're fukked fer sure and the unwind will be more like a coiled spring snapping. It'll be over in a few day's time. That's what I think these wild swings in silver, oil, stocks, etc. are presaging. When we get gas over $4.50 nationally, or maybe $5, and everyone pushing the 10 until it is under 2%, they flip the switch, blow the whole thing up and guys like Rogers and Pimpco Gross look like geniuses, again, but their counterparties will be in default and they'll get stiffed like everyone else.

Fucking perfect, plan. Gimme another shot, please. Left eye, thank you.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 19:26 | 1260973 tbonetmoney
tbonetmoney's picture

If I recall correctly Jim started shorting US treasury bonds before QE2. Rogers said he covered once Egypt happened, and he has been waiting to short bonds since. He has  been correct on bonds as of late unless you are right that he has been short and losing, but on television says he is waiting to short US treasury bonds.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:28 | 1260829 DK Delta
DK Delta's picture

Should I point out that Jim Rogers expects a dollar rally? Is that inflationary?

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 19:03 | 1260919 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

Good point. The opposite. Stronger dollar = deflation. Bonds toward zero return. I don't get his logic either. Maybe he and Gross are shills.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 19:52 | 1261019 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

C'MON peeps!

This should come as a relief... I mean... It was too tough of an image to conjure up JR 'farming naked' in Canada...

At least now he's put some shorts on... It's a step in the right direction if you ask me!



Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:26 | 1260835 Henry Hub
Henry Hub's picture

Rogers knows that QE can never end or the whole house of cards comes crashing down. It's print to infinity. He's only pulling our chain. Hold on to gold, silver and oil (with no margin of course). Ride this beast all the way down!

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:30 | 1260836 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

With both Gross and Jim Rogers shorting....

Treasuries are assured to embark on a massive rally as soon as the stock market breaks below the 21-day EMA again.....

If the Dow goes to 15,000, then they may be right.  But then they will also have to pile into equities as well in order to avoid the dreaded "performance anxiety"...

Too tough to short bonds and make much money with Uncle Gorilla on the bid, debt ceiling be damned....

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:30 | 1260839 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

"If I get around to it..." he says.

That's pretty solid, conviction wise.

Nothing spells confidence like "[i]f I get around to it."

You go, Jim.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:36 | 1260857 augie
augie's picture

If i had the kind of coin little jimmy's has, i would never get around to it. I'd  be balls deep in some lithuanian hooker while my wife made mimosas on my 400 foot yacht. I might donate a couple million to a boys and girls know, for the kids.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:39 | 1260861 DK Delta
DK Delta's picture


Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:40 | 1260865 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

I may sell bonds if the market isn't dead.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:34 | 1260844 Al89
Al89's picture

People should know that Jim Rogers might expect a dollar rally with the end of QE and general risk off. That also might mean he expects a short term treasury rally. Rogers is long term in his thinking on everything, so looking to Fall he probably expects QE3 to be the catalyst for the bonds to drop.

He himself says he is terrible on market timing, so I wouldn't pile into the short treasury trade just yet. $ strength and risk off with the end of QE might mean that they get a boost, as has happened over the last few weeks since the start of April. 

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:41 | 1260874 tao400
tao400's picture

If he expects a dollar rally then he also expects a treasury decline and interest rate increase. that's the way it works.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:32 | 1260846 Goliath
Goliath's picture

vol selling yield suppression scheme


love it!

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:32 | 1260850 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Why would anybody of influence announce a position before they place it? Eventually treasuries will collapse but not until after the market does.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:42 | 1260871 tao400
tao400's picture

His opinion or anyone's for that matter will have no affect on the treasury market. It is so huge that the us government can't control it unless they print trillions. the gold market is different however, since it is not that large. i think soros sold gold, indicated that he sold gold and thus drove the price down and then bought it back.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 19:43 | 1261002 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

I disagree. The fed can print as much money as they want and affect the bond market. They  will hasten the demise of the already dead dollar, but they can impact treasuries, and gold will be worth a lot more than it is now.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:35 | 1260854 Phillips Capital
Phillips Capital's picture

Humor me please, I am a noob... How would you short treasuries? TBT is the only way I know of. What are the different ways (and preferrably the best ways) to short treasuries? Thanks in advance. 

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:45 | 1260876 magpie
magpie's picture

PST or short the banks and AIG

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 20:52 | 1261135 SME MOFO
SME MOFO's picture

use the google or read the manual

bond markets are interesting and worth learning about.

but here is a plain vanilla method of shorting .gov promises.

Treasury futures are derivatives that track the prices of specific treasury securities

The Chicago Board of Trade lists futures on the treasury bond  and the 10-, five- and two-year treasury notes 

To go long a Treasury futures contract is to agree to take delivery of the underlying securities at the price at which you went long (adjusted for differences between various deliverable bonds). Because Treasury futures (like other futures contracts) go up and down with their underlying assets, you would go long Treasury futures for the same reason you would buy the underlying Treasuries: You expect the underlying Treasuries to go up in price. Buyers and sellers of Treasury futures don't know any more than investors in the underlying securities do about where Treasury prices and interest rates are headed.

You would not buy Treasury futures if your objective was to earn income from coupon payments. Interest rate futures do not make interest payments.

Buying and selling futures is both more efficient and riskier than buying and selling the underlying securities because it employs leverage. To buy $100,000 par amount of Treasuries, you have to lay out something close to that amount, depending on the price. But to go long a Treasury futures contract representing $100,000 par amount of Treasuries, you merely have to deposit $2,025 in a margin account, and maintain at least $1,500 in the account, as changes in the value of the contract are either added to or subtracted from it.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 23:30 | 1261697 Phillips Capital
Phillips Capital's picture

thanks very much. good info. 

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 19:40 | 1261001 anony
anony's picture

Short TLT.

I'm not a billionaire so you can trust me to tell you the truth.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 19:58 | 1261041 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Ummm... How does one 'short' treasuries???

Well - Let me ask you... Is your 'desire' to short treasuries based on some kind of imagined PAPER profits redeemable in a FIAT notes? (which you'll ultimately be taxed on)???

If so... Then I can't be of much help...



Tue, 05/10/2011 - 23:04 | 1261612 Phillips Capital
Phillips Capital's picture

Naw, mannn. I'm talkin bout shorting tbonds backed by physical silver, duh! helllllz yeah!  

Wed, 05/11/2011 - 00:00 | 1261782 Vint Slugs
Vint Slugs's picture

1.  Open a spec trading account with a major bank.  Fund it with silver bullion as collateral.  Sell short specific US gov't 10- or 30-year bonds for about 2% margin money relative to the face value of the bonds.

2.  Open a spec trading account with a futures broker.  Fund it with cash and then buy T-bills to use as collateral.  Sell short futures, either CBT 10-year notes or 30-year bonds.  Margin on the 30-year futures is about $3700 for a current value of $123,500 futures contract (underlying face value = $100,000).

Wed, 05/11/2011 - 00:53 | 1261850 Phillips Capital
Phillips Capital's picture

What is a good futures broker? [I used to trade stocks with IB and hated them.] 

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:39 | 1260858 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

all these big shots know something - who is the lehman?

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:38 | 1260869 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

My guess is morgan stanley.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 19:00 | 1260909 Troublehoff
Troublehoff's picture


Tue, 05/10/2011 - 19:12 | 1260945 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Everything. Everything they have loses. Big losses in all areas and CDO lawsuit. They have been bad banked from what I can tell.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:49 | 1260885 Lord Peter Pipsqueak
Lord Peter Pipsqueak's picture

Isn't this another one of those "if everyone expects A to happen,the exact opposite B usually occurs"? In this case,Treasuries will confound everyone and continue going up in price.

Peter Schiff even alluded to this recently when asked if he would advise shorting the 30 yr,he disagreed, prefering to own gold or silver instead, since Bernanke can keep selling 30yr puts with unlimited electronic money.

This is I think where Gross and Rogers will come unstuck,the markets aren't behaving rationally,since they are to one degree or an other being manipulated by the Fed.Of course,like most traders (and Goldman's clients),should they capitulate and it beomes known they have gone long,the Fed/GS/JPM will then kill the put selling,the 30 yr will crash and the markets will have taken one more big step towards the final collapse,when there are no more suckers to fleece left.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 19:41 | 1260998 anony
anony's picture

So billionaires broadcast to the world exactly what they are going to do. That's how they became and now stay billionaires.

And chickens have lips.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:52 | 1260887 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

A bit of complexity here.

End of June, Fed stops buying "new" government securities.  But what of the short maturity securities that mature?  The Fed won't ask for their money back.  This has the effect of turning that lending they did in buying T notes into a "gift".

Point being, they have now been doing it for so long that ceasing to buy new bonds does NOT extract money from the system.  They'll still be adding money by letting their holdings mature and not requiring Treasury to repay the loan they, Treasury, was given.

 It's insane.  It's worse than insane. They CAN'T sell the tnotes or tbonds to anyone, because that anyone will demand payment from Treasury at maturity.  This craziness is out of control

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 19:47 | 1261008 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

Wrong. Wrong. Wrong

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 19:55 | 1261026 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Shrug.  It's a tough call.  Bonds up, bonds down, or bonds flat.

The bonds up theory leans on deflation, due to . . . whatever.

Bonds down leans on inflation, due to . . . a different whatever.

Bernake is betting on bonds flat, and maybe that's how.  They have an inventory of MBS and Treasuries.  When they mature, don't collect the par value.  Simply that.  The PDs don't really have to be involved.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 20:01 | 1261060 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

QE "VAPOR" (before QE3)... In a nutshell...

Might need an intermittent 10-15% R2K haircut to facilitate the process... Then it's BACK ON again with the QE18 rinse & repeat cycle...


Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:55 | 1260899 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

I luv luv luv bond bears. They give me confidence that LT rates will keep trending lower. Go ahead Mr. Rogers, reach your hand into the meat grinder while the fed gangsters reach for the switch.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 19:07 | 1260937 equity_momo
equity_momo's picture

Very true. Shorting US bonds has been THE widow-maker trade for a long long time. Sure , a trend is a trend until it isnt , but trying to profit from a collapse in the US govn bond market by shorting US govn bonds seems rather bizarre logic. Its short sighted. Stick to buying gold if you really expect it (heck , stick to buying it even if you dont)

Shorting govvies outright is going to keep killing alot of people.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 19:25 | 1260968 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Not a good idea to scratch around in the fed's kitty box.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 19:39 | 1260993 anony
anony's picture

MY TBT has yet to tread water in two years.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 20:10 | 1261079 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

As an owner of TBT you have a lot of mouths to feed.

Wed, 05/11/2011 - 07:07 | 1262162 anony
anony's picture

Tell me about it....Making more selling calls at every opportunity.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 18:54 | 1260901 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

Does he have the power to obtain something shinier than money for his fund from the Fed by such extortion like nongroupthink?

Welcome to Mr. Robinson's Neighborhood

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 19:07 | 1260925 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture
Jim Rogers Says He Plans To Short Treasurys As Soon As This Afternoon


...And in other breaking news -- Lloyd Blankfein thinks he's going to convert to Catholicism on Thursday, Maybe...

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 19:14 | 1260944 wirtschaftswunder
wirtschaftswunder's picture

pt 2/3 Jim Rogers on CNBC 5_5_11 _ Time to Exit Gold and Silver

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 19:23 | 1260961 IdioTsincracY
IdioTsincracY's picture

Actually he never said to sell PM

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 19:38 | 1260988 anony
anony's picture

.....and when it drops, buy it back....


Bad title for that youtube post. 

He never said it.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 19:36 | 1260984 PulauHantu29
PulauHantu29's picture

Tcik,,,tock,,,tick,,tock,,,the dollar will fall but I seriously hope it does not fall 50% overnight some day.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 19:38 | 1260996 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

"Maybe this afternoon if I get around to it."

That's real conviction for ya. Yes sir, I'm gonna get right on it.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 20:12 | 1261082 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture

it sounds like jimmy is selling the idea of shorts to idiots... lol

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 19:49 | 1261012 The Swedish Chef
The Swedish Chef's picture

Hopefully the Bernank throws a good show and holds of QE3 until mid-fall, just to really make his point and let the talking heads feel the urgency. Jeethner probably will do his part too, telling congress how vital for the economy a third round of QE is and the catastrophical the consequences will be if it doesn´t happen.


By then we´ll, or at least I, will have bought all I can at this summers fire sale on junior mining stocks and physical. If I get around to it, that is...

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 20:00 | 1261058 Segestan
Segestan's picture

 The Wonderful world of Tomorrow according to Jim Rogers and many others. .


Nothing could have helped the Communist more than western liberals. When China becomes the worlds leader the mask will come off.

When was the last time the USA had such a display of military intent?

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 21:04 | 1261169 dcb
dcb's picture

Ok, my long treasury closed out this morning, so now I am net short again. the next )minor top is on 5/16. so we will continue to see a dup in the ascending triangle formation with higher lows on the s and P. when that breaks about the middle of june (end of QE). long treasuries will be a good purchase. they are in a slow ascending channel, as with each top, and drop some prople go there so there is some continued support at each inflaction point. Note the big boys know this. the correct time to short treasuries is after the june correction on the ascending traingle.

the easiest way to see this is to chart VT, or even the s and p. VT gives june 8th. the s and p june 10th. Also remember the big boys window dress for end of quarter. so you almost always see tlt rise the last two weeks of the quarter, which one more gve middle june!!


Tue, 05/10/2011 - 21:11 | 1261183 dcb
dcb's picture

I am not saying it will happen, but we could see 1200 on the s and p by september.

in fct the emerging market sharts look better because they have actually returned to the bottom channel and haven't out performed for a while

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 21:08 | 1261172 r101958
r101958's picture

IMO....they (Rogers and Gross) are betting that it will only take one to two months w/o QE for the markets to be begging for QE3. During those months (July/Aug?), bonds will strengthen (perhaps considerably), commodities will moderate but the equities market will take a huge hit. Pensions and 401k's will suffer. At this point Ben will 'relent' and 'bow to the pressure' to reinstate QE. After restart of QE bonds will suffer big time. Of course, all this is already understood by those in the know. The timing will be difficult to pinpoint so best to stay short bonds for the duration.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 21:21 | 1261217 dcb
dcb's picture

Yeah, the other thing is that while rates are lower with qe considering where the market is, the markewouldn't be there without QE, Qe has in fact raised long term treasuries. also tyler you can't keep running around saying stock are in a bubble and stay away from bonds. Now for risk issues good corporates are most likely better risk reward than treasuries. But the bond vigils arn't going to hit the us until they have had some fun with europe and most likely japan first. they just can't do it all at once.


also lets not forget all teh crap in europe and we know the who system is insolvent because of the bonds they have. so the risk premium for stocks there is in no way accurate. so that impact treasuries. if we understand the financial stability of the system is low, and it is propped up with BS, then there is high tail risk in the system, so I always have some buy stops on treasuries in place on margin accounts, same way I always have some buy stops on margin on the inverse funds. the big commodty drop was very good for me, and it allowed me to take profits, make money on the way down, and re enter at trend. I always has some of this stuff in for a break in the trend. if the commodity trend breaks down from the current one I have that covered as well. by doing these in margin I am not in a hurry to sell, but I know the way the system works, with flash crashed and leverage. not to throw some money on tail risk if it happens is just stupid trading. it sure as heck worked for the the way down on the finacial crisis.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 21:53 | 1261324 r101958
r101958's picture

I agree Eurozone is not good but I think many are catching on that we continue to try to turn attention to them and in reality we are hiding the insolvency of our own states. We have the ratings houses and use them with abandon. Many of our states' bonds should be rated junk yet we point the finger elsewhere in order to prop up the dollar and make treasuries look more attractive. Slowly but surely some even many are seeing the light. There are many, many patterns in the markets that are pretty clear to see if we look with a jaundiced eye.

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 21:20 | 1261210 dollartheque@ya...'s picture

I guess he is shorting US long term Bonds, I wonder what ticker is best,anyone?

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 22:59 | 1261598 rawsienna
rawsienna's picture

Given that we are about to enter a multiyear fiscal tightening combined with some type of modest increase in taxes, I would not want to be short long dated bonds for more than a short term 15-25 bp back up in yields.  Unemployment rate will be slow to come down and growth will sputter around "potential". No wage growth means no inflation -core pce  - - Fed Funds rate not moving up past 1-1.5% anytime in the next 3 years so good luck with the shorts. 

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 23:30 | 1261689 boiltherich
boiltherich's picture

Shorting bonds (or anything else) means you believe the price will drop, a bond price drop means interest rates rise.  The Fed says it plans to maintain ZIRP.  It will not let bond prices drop period.  It can do this easily, if nobody else wants debt it will just buy treasuries, pay more for them, It does not matter what hedge fund you run, it does not matter your last name, if the Fed says it will keep interest rates at zero it will keep interest rates at zero, fight the Fed and you lose.  It will do this no matter what, loaf of bread at $450?  Gallon of gas at $1,000.00?  The truth is the truth and it has been staring you in the face for a long time.  Gold can go to 900,000 for all the Fed cares because it is nothing but a marginal commodity that is not part of either international commerce or the daily lives of people, it is not legal tender, it can't be smoked and it can't be eaten.  It will not run your car!

Why is that so hard for folks to get?  Clearly the Fed is following the path that the BOJ blazed 20 years ago.  Real asset prices (and real profits) drop while the cost of living rises dramatically.  Gold and silver will rise in nominal terms but not in real terms, real estate will fall, level out then fall more, food and fuel will rise, level out then rise a lot more.  DUH!

I would not short bonds, the Fed can and will get it's way.  People think that zero interest is as far south as notes, bills and bonds can go and they are wrong.  The fed will print and print and print, there will always be someone out there they can pay to buy the deficit bonds of the USA. 

As of now the treasury is floating bond issues nobody will buy so the Fed pays the primary dealers to soak it all up with the promise that the Fed will print up enough to buy it all from them at a choice fat profit.  We do get to see the prices the PD's pay for all of this debt at near zero interest, but we are not privy to the prices the Fed pays them when it prints up so called US dollars to buy it all back from them, if we did I guess that the time value interest rate the PD's get is close to 22%, if not a lot more. 

This is exactly the situation that the founding fathers warned us against.  Not that I am so hot on a lot of their issues, but they were right about money and budgets (and separation of church and state).  The bleakest part of all is that there is no person public or private willing (or able) to tell the truth and even less so to do anything about it.  I, and you, we all know that the first one to really try to do anything will be dead before we get our message out. 

Good luck all, if I were still in the investment advice business I would not advise you to hold dollars or any fiat, or silver/gold, but to get on the road and find good land south of the 45th parallel that has good water, and buy lots of ammo and arms, as well as the means to make tobacco and alcohol, because that is what you will need to pay the wages of the people that will protect you and your land.  Seriously, when it all crashes things are going to get very ugly.  I do not think we have years left but months.


Wed, 05/11/2011 - 03:01 | 1261989 onarga74
onarga74's picture

The only thing the founders dorked up was not including a "separation of commerce and state" clause. Although, that isnt how they are read.  "establish no religion" is correct not "separation of church and state" 

Tue, 05/10/2011 - 23:50 | 1261761 Zing
Zing's picture

" Recently Jim Rogers correctly pointed out that silver is not in a bubble"


I see Tyler does not look at charts.

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