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Jim Rogers Tells CNBC To Change Its Name To CommoditesNBC, Sees Oil At $150, Is Short Nasdaq ETFs, Expects More Governments To Collapse

Tyler Durden's picture


Jim Rogers, in his latest interview, cuts right to the chase: "I don't own many equities, because I don't know what is going to happen in the world economy. I expect more currency turmoil, more social unrest, more governments collapsing. So I am investing in currencies and commodities rather than stocks." Pretty much like everyone else, as we have been suggesting for quite a while. Rogers snaps at the trademark CNBC question of what he would be investing in: "I have been explaining to everybody on CNBC for a year and half or two now that food prices are going to go through the roof, they're going to explode. We have serious shortage of everything developing, including shortages of farmers... The average age of farmers in one major agricultural state is 58 years old. In 10 years it will be 68 years old. In parts of Japan they have no farmers... It takes 7 years for a coffee tree to mature. Orange trees, palm trees: you don't just suddenly snap your fingers and suddenly get some more palm oil. All of this takes time." So all those who believe that the surge in people rushing to fill the ag arbitrage holes will produce immediate results, may need to wait 3-7 years, dependant on access to manure.

On whether this is not a demand-led inflation in commodity prices:

Whenever governments have printed money throughout history, people put their money in real assets, whether it's rice or silver or natural gas. People protect themselves, they don't just say "give me some more paper money." And if you say it's not demand: go to India, go to China, see how people are changing their lives and using more." As for supply: "Commodities are based on supply and demand. You can have demand go down, but if supply goes down more you are going to have a bull market."

Not surprisingly, Rogers see oil at $150, and the exchange between Rogers and some CNBC guy discussing the role of speculators (it is all the evil speculators' fault, never the Chairsaint) is worth watching the clip alone.

Rogers' response to CNBC's desperate attempt to get him to list a stock or two for the lemmings to buy into, the response is priceless: "Commodities have outperformed stock by 10 times over the last 10-12 years. Why aren't you doing only commodities. It's outperformed stocks by 1,000%. To me it's pretty simple, you should change the name to CommoditiesNBC."

And, finally, his response to what his stock exposure is is not what CNBC wanted to hear. "I am short emerging markets ETFs, short Nasdaq ETFs."

Brilliant as always.

h/t etrader


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Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:53 | 935107 Michael
Michael's picture

17.3+ % U-6 unemployed people don't drive to work everyday, and don't tool around as much shopping for trinkets and bobbles.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:08 | 935186 kengland
kengland's picture

He's tripping over his teeth? Lisping. Somethings up with his mouth

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:36 | 935311 sourgrapesson
sourgrapesson's picture

Loose chinese dentures

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:43 | 935320 66Sexy
66Sexy's picture

what's NOT getting coverage are the multi state natural gas shortages

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:58 | 935416 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Yup.  A colleague of mine has a second home in NM which apparently froze over when rolling blackouts in Texas caused Natural gas to NM to be shut off.  He is getting his water pipes blown out now.  Hopefully none of them burst.  

Just a tiny example.  A lot of people were put in real danger by this, not just "rich assholes" second homes (he is a very nice guy, and a liberal before those of you who hate me come out pissing all over my friend).

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:04 | 935456 Michael
Michael's picture

Some eco-fascists have to learn the hard way, we have global cooling now. Not necessarily your friend.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:17 | 935502 Herd Redirectio...
Herd Redirection Committee's picture

No one wants to admit they have been duped. When you look around, that is what you are seeing.  Millions of people who have  a feeling something is wrong (like the movie the Matrix) but they don't know quite what it is, because admitting you believed a lie is tantamount to calling yourself stupid.  Doesn't happen every day! Whether it comes to trusting the gov't, the Fed, or the global warming 'tards, no one wants to admit to having been duped!

Any way, check out the latest from the Capital Research Institute:

Why the Fed Can't (And Won't) Raise Interest Rates

The signs of currency devaluation are all around us.  Yesterday (Feb. 4th) commodities surged.  Gold surged too. Are we really supposed to believe there is that much extra demand for commodities and gold, or their supply that restricted, that prices have been positively skyrocketing these last few months?  Of course not.  What has been happening is a devaluation in the underlying currency these commodities are priced in, the US Dollar.  Currency depreciation can be tough to spot in an environment such as the current one, as most people will look for currencies to appreciate vs other currencies.  What they are forgetting is that we live in a historic period where every nation of economic significance is involved in a no-holds-barred (currency) race to the bottom.  That means currency exchange rates may stay stable relative to each other, but not to commodities, nor to the one currency no central banker can create out of thin air, gold (and silver).

What is required to stop such runaway inflation in basic commodities?  Well, since it is being caused by devaluation of currency, the natural way to stop it would be to ‘revalue’ your currency, or in other words, make it more valuable.  In short, the USD needs to appreciate, not depreciate like it has since the crisis in 2008.  What is the easiest way to get a currency to appreciate, raising interest rates of course! So even though we clearly see conditions have arisen that naturallyare countered through an interest rate hike it is unlikely the Fed will raise rates significantly (if at all!).

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 21:14 | 936584 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

Your correct, people can't admit that they where taken for a ride.  All those old and young people will see how bad things are and will go nuts.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:10 | 935481 Michael
Michael's picture

You can't hide the real unemployment number.

The true figure is reflected in the voting booth.

Sat, 02/05/2011 - 02:03 | 936991 Freddie
Freddie's picture

Your liberal buddy voted for this.  His boy O**ma fu*ked the world.  Karma bitchez!

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:06 | 935463 Drag Racer
Drag Racer's picture

full spread of blowtron torpedos

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:46 | 935367 Larry Darrell
Larry Darrell's picture




Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:50 | 935374 yabyum
yabyum's picture

I follow ZeroHedge, and trust my gut. Right wing radio assholes, not so much.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:57 | 935414 Larry Darrell
Larry Darrell's picture

You have to understand the PROCESS of finding the truth.  I used to listen to Rush a lot and was plugged into the Red Vs Blue game.  After searching for the truth after the bank bailouts, I eventually ended up here.  I now understand that the Red VS Blue is a distraction.

Maybe even Rush will begin to realize the truth: that he has spent his career defending people who are the problem.  I wouldn't bet on that, but maybe some of his listeners (who don't have their entire careers on the line with this debate) will come here and come to the awakening that I have.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:00 | 935426 Michael
Michael's picture

I take the black and white pill.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:18 | 935507 tamboo
tamboo's picture

we're pretty much surrounded by filthy cryptojews:
rush, alex jones, glenn beck, all those delightful snl
type comedians, palin, obongo, supreme court, cabinet, congress....barf.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 19:21 | 936389 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

it's good to know you're objective :/

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:36 | 935584 Seer
Seer's picture

"Maybe even Rush will begin to realize the truth: that he has spent his career defending people who are the problem."

What gets me is that people believe that only one "side" is lying, and that "their" side tells the truth.

It's like this: the rich and empowered are both because they TAKE from others.  Rush, and anoyone else telling everyone what the "truth" is, isn't in business to tell us the (real) truths, for the simple reason that they'd be out of jobs (and, being the lazy fucks that they are, would have to actually work for a living!), not to mention that people can't handle the truth.  So... if anyone is listening to any of these people then please do so ONLY as entertainment!  Otherwise one has one's head in the sand, where, it has been proven, the "truth" from these folks seem to be amplified (only in the sand).

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 17:01 | 936124 Irwin Fletcher
Irwin Fletcher's picture

The rich and empowered take from others, and give to others as well. Almost everybody does. The balance of give and take may be questioned, especially if the 'give' is directed toward banksters and the 'take' is directed toward the working man, but you can't say people like Darth Blankfein and Warren Buffett are lazy fucks. And nobody who took Limbaugh seriously yesterday is going to stop taking him seriously today because they suddenly realize he's an entertainer. Small steps, Seer, but steps in the right direction.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:02 | 935418 Larry Darrell
Larry Darrell's picture

Removed double post.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:02 | 935446 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

LOL so you pick and choose your truth

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:07 | 935466 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

dont trust your gut

lies from the left wont help you

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:28 | 935550 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

If you bother to do any research it will not matter where you happen to stumble across the truth.. 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:39 | 935602 Seer
Seer's picture

Yup!  Party/ideological blinders will lead one over a cliff.  Diversification in all things.  There's good in everything, I aim to pick the good stuff and reject the bad stuff.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 15:12 | 935724 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Well said.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:50 | 935375 JonNadler
JonNadler's picture

what an honor for ZH

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:53 | 935389 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture


Sat, 02/05/2011 - 19:54 | 938108 The Navigator
The Navigator's picture

clenched teeth, dealing with morons.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:12 | 935206 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

I believe U-6 fell to 16.1% in this report.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:31 | 935292 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

Let's look at the actual report:

"The number of workers only able to find part time jobs (or have had their hours cut for economic reasons) declined to 8.407 million in January. 

These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that declined sharply to 16.1% in January from 16.7% in December."

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:06 | 935464 Attitude_Check
Attitude_Check's picture

Even U-6 drops off folks who haven't found work for an extended time.  If you shrink the denominator the fraction "looks better".  The real tell is the participation rate -- which is at a 26 year low.  The fewer people working (for whatever reason) the less consumption possible.  Simple math and logic really, you should try it sometime.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 15:00 | 935683 holmes
holmes's picture

That's to be expected. Harry knew that.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 15:11 | 935716 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

Hey douchebag!

Every time you post unemployment propaganda, I'm going to post this

Just in case there's a new ZH reader that hasn't caught on to the fact you are a douchbag filled with runny shit.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:15 | 935226 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

You 'believe' that Harry? Well just look at the number on the BLS website saying U6 = 17.3%.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:59 | 935425 BorisTheBlade
BorisTheBlade's picture

Investment based on the belief is a bad investment, not automatically of course, but most likely. On the other hand, if one sticks to the good understanding of the physical economy, he/she would learn a lot of crucial things for its own prosperity (in this case survival). Take this one for example:

It takes 7 years for a coffee tree to mature. Orange trees, palm trees: you don't just suddenly snap your fingers and suddenly get some more palm oil. All of this takes time.

Supply-side economics, common sense, the unemployment rate may go down in the next quarter or two on the back of monetary measures, yet it won't really matter since employment generated does not produce any meaningful physical output.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:20 | 935515 RmcAZ
RmcAZ's picture

Are you serious?

People make unemployment reports way too complicated. Looking at it in its simplest form, there are two factors here: Number of people (population), and people working. The number of people working compared to how many total people there are is going DOWN. How can you take this simple fact, and spin it to make it positive?

Sat, 02/05/2011 - 12:02 | 937393 DeadFred
DeadFred's picture

The number of workers per household climbed steadily for years as Mom and Dad both got into the rat race to pay the mortgage on their overpriced MacMansion and buy more and fancier baubles 'cause that was the meaning of life then.  The PolyAnna side of me hopes this economic restructuring were going through will at least help a few people out of that hollow lifestyle.  That's the possible good spin.  The undeniable down side is that bauble sales will drop.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:47 | 935626 Seer
Seer's picture

A better measure is how difficult of a time people are having feeding themselves.

What good would FULL employment be if people couldn't afford to eat?  I'm guessing that "employment" during periods of slavery (not like it's vanaished) was pretty high.  Employment numbers are meaningless.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:12 | 935207 Michael
Michael's picture

And hookers too.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:54 | 935359 pan-the-ist
pan-the-ist's picture

Here's another contrarian outlook:  Poor people (in the USA) already have access to too much cheap food.  All this will do make them eat less.  It will probably be good for them.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:32 | 935573 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Hope your pipes freeze..

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 15:30 | 935789 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

People in the US suffer from malnutrition not starvation. Overeating a lot of shitty cheap food is malnutrition too. It costs more to real food, unless you can put down a garden.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 15:48 | 935845 ibjamming
ibjamming's picture

So why don't we do that?  Stop the SNAP cards and give them a place for a garden.  I've seen the HUD housing...the gardens can go where the playgrounds are now...when you're poor...should you really have time for play?  It's a life lesson...  This way they work (better health) and they eat better (better health), so they won't have to go to the emergency room as often.  Win win to me...what's the problem?


I'm tired of fat lazy fucks living off everyone else.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 16:19 | 935976 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

  For shits and giggles, add up all the corporate welfare in the budget and add up all the real welfare, SNAP etc..., now normalize for the number of people involved. The results might surprise you....

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 20:10 | 936487 naughtius maximus
naughtius maximus's picture

Aw can't you spare a dime for AIG who is just down on his luck?

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:08 | 935472 Michael
Michael's picture

You can't hide the real unemployment number.

The true figure is reflected in the voting booth.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:50 | 935642 Seer
Seer's picture

You've now repeated this.  I could interpret this in several ways, but would like to get your elaboration.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:15 | 935493 chistletoe
chistletoe's picture

au contraire.


7 million households have been through foreclosure

and now they are  living in their cars and running the engine all night just for heat ....

gasoline demand in the USA is hitting all-time highs ...

just look at the numbers ....

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:52 | 935647 Seer
Seer's picture

"gasoline demand in the USA is hitting all-time highs ..."

Could you provide a reference?  Thanks!

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:54 | 935115 random shots
random shots's picture

This means nothing without a proven track record at the very least.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:58 | 935138 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Seriously? You don't know Jim Rogers?

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:23 | 935259 random shots
random shots's picture

Yea..retired in 1990. What has he done over the last two decades? Has he been right about his calls or just piling on?

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:44 | 935355 tickhound
tickhound's picture

He started the pile.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 15:16 | 935736 BigJim
BigJim's picture

I've been listening to Jim Rogers for the last two years. His calls, so far, have been uncannily prescient - I wish I'd followed his advice more.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:52 | 935388 Shell Game
Shell Game's picture

Remember, his shots are random..

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:06 | 935176 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Wow, ignorance must be bliss.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:18 | 935241 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

He said the same thing when everything spiked higher in '07-'08 only to watch it all get popped as the bubble burst on the speculators. We're not even to those levels yet, not even close and the same speculators will get their faces ripped off once again. 

I guess there must be certain "trigger" levels to bring guys like this back out. Like when commodities reach a certain level. Then, when the latest bubble burst, they crawl back into their holes until the next rise. Rinse and repeat.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:24 | 935260 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Harry, when you can show that you have had 1% of the success that Rodgers has had, you might get listened to. Until then, go back to your survey bathroom boy.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:26 | 935274 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Harry's all in a tizzy that Rogers points out commodities outperform stocks 10:1, simply cant be true in Harrys world of Apple bubble!

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:46 | 935363 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Yeah, besides being the first in Singapore, one of the first on China and the BRICS. This Rodgers is a real failure. He could have been investing in home decor! Let's pick a time frame when ALL investors did poorly. We don't want to examine a lifetime of success on a scale Harry could only dream of.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 18:09 | 936286 PhattyBuoy
PhattyBuoy's picture

+∞ windowblinds

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 19:24 | 936397 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture


Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:55 | 935400 ZackAttack
ZackAttack's picture

He did make his long commodities call starting back in the late 90s. Specifically, he recommended oil when it was still in the teens and gold below $300.

He was long China for a long time in there, too, not sure where he made that call exactly.

Rogers is the antithesis of a top-caller.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:22 | 935524 rosiescenario
rosiescenario's picture

Rogers was way early in his calls...I have followed him for a couple of decades now. Currently he appears to be spot on with his calls, but I wonder how much of the current commodity surge is due to actual demand versus production and how much is due to tons of free money chasing anything that moves using algos to accelerate the process???


For example, one of my close friends does programming for a hedge fund that uses trend following algos to "invest" in commodities. Their fund has been around for many years and had only a small amount of money in it. Now things have suddenly been changing and they have 10X more money to manage than 1 year ago. That is one I know about, so there must be about 10,000 similar ones I do not know about, but who are experiencing a similar ramp in funds to invest. Also, bear in mind the leverage used in commodity investing. You add this stuff up and you get cotton on a moon launch.....does that in anyway reflect supply and demand, or is it just hot money, algos, and leverage????? My gut feeling is it is about 10% demand / supply driven and 90% hedge fund driven.

Personally, this commodity market is setting up for a crash, but it might well be from a level 3X above the just cannot know how many fools will put the free money into this pit before it tops out. When all those trend following algos try to reverse field there will be no buyers until price points dive to levels where the real buyers shall step in.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:44 | 935620 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

And it isn't 1000 times worse with equities? We can use this argument about anything while the printing press is on, but PM's are real money and real people eat real food, build real homes and wear real clothes. Stocks or dinner? Equities or a roof over your head? Silver or paper?

Rodgers is not a market timer, he sees trends before they start and invests when the entry point is low. He likewise, leaves towards the top. He probably sleeps well at night and has the leisure of watching and fine tooling a strategy rather than racing to beat the clock and wondering if he can hold a position overnight.


Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:54 | 935660 DoctoRx
DoctoRx's picture

It helps one's sleep to be a zillionaire married to the daughter of a college girlfriend.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:57 | 935676 Seer
Seer's picture

"And it isn't 1000 times worse with equities?"

And, really, iPods or cotton and food?  Hm... as salaries decline and more people become unemployed what do people think will happen?  Anyone thinking equities is the place to be has to be blind as a bat.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:26 | 935542 BorisTheBlade
BorisTheBlade's picture

It's time that someone tracks performance of Dow and S&P vs. PMs and basket of commodities.

Sat, 02/05/2011 - 06:03 | 937114 BorisTheBlade
BorisTheBlade's picture

Yes, thanks. The Dow chart vs. Gold is an interesting one given the lows that were achieved historically: around 1.5 oz per Dow in 1930s during the Great Depression and around 1.5 in 1980 following Volcker's crackdown on inflation. From that perspective, there is still a way to go down from the current 9 oz per Dow.

The oil chart is indeed a bit scary since one ounce of gold buys around 11 barrels of oil compared to 20 in 1995, yet to be seen whether it is an effect of gold prices suppression and gold is heading back up as the heading suggests or oil is becoming increasingly scarce and expensive even in the real terms.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:47 | 935627 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

Are you referring to the same bubble that decimated your beloved Apple which is the engine of world growth?

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:35 | 935267 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

Wow, ignorance must be bliss.

Evidence of that all around us..

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:55 | 935121 Pegasus Muse
Pegasus Muse's picture

..., dependant on access to manure.

Plenty of that available at CNBC.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:34 | 935306 Rahm
Rahm's picture


Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:58 | 935122 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Someone please subpoena this Bill Gates person.  Does he not understand that the recession is over?

Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates discusses the challenges of philanthropy in a recession.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:08 | 935181 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Huge headwinds in some areas, huge windfalls in others...  basically, if you want cold, hard cash, then you get dick in a recession...  if you can profit from donations of dirty diapers and useless chinese junk, then you'll get all you can stand...  simply put, there is no market for mass produced trinkets when everyone hits the panic button to sell...  as a result, the smart play is to donate it and take the tax deduction instead...  nets more...  obviously this will only be for a certain segment of the crowd though...  as many people don't itemize or are not fortunate enough to have income to offset... 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 15:00 | 935684 Seer
Seer's picture


Fri, 02/04/2011 - 19:28 | 936401 DaveyJones
Fri, 02/04/2011 - 15:30 | 935786 Monday1929
Monday1929's picture

It is annoying when mainstream people use the "recession" (which is "over") as an excuse.

Don't worry, the Depression will be a great excuse for all kinds of underperformance. Even better than "snow".

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 21:59 | 936597 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

. . .blah blah blah. . ."allow a society to reduce its population explosion". . .blah blah. . ." and that's how you get a self-sufficient society so you can focus ruthlessly (his emphasis) on these interventions. . ." (@roughly 9min.)


yeah, same old song 'n' dance, same agenda. . .


Gates makes 78 global health grants

Some examples of the breadth of projects funded this round include:

More effective vaccines:

• Sweat-triggered vaccine delivery: Carlos Alberto Guzman of the Helmholtz Centre for Infection Research in Germany with Claus-Michael Lehr and Steffi Hansen of the Helmholtz-Institute for Pharmaceutical Research will develop nanoparticles that penetrate the skin through hair follicles and burst upon contact with human sweat to release vaccines.

Read more: Gates makes 78 global health grants | Puget Sound Business Journal
Mr. Microsoft in his continuing fight against viruses, by stealth.
Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:57 | 935124 pton09
pton09's picture

Rogers has a proven track record, but when does he see oil at 150?  Obviously at some point in the future, but a little more specifics would be helpful. 

Every fiat dies some day, so of course things will move higher but without any timing it is a little meaningless.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:59 | 935142 gloomboomdoom
gloomboomdoom's picture

Jimi Rogers Waterz endorses Ronald Reagan for President of the United Soviet States of America

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:32 | 935298 Blindweb
Blindweb's picture

I assume he means in today's dollars.  He understands peak oil.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:59 | 935140 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

Well, he's consistent, he's been saying the exact same thing for the past several years.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 12:59 | 935141 mnzcme
mnzcme's picture

yeah, but recent history is that stocks and commodities (CRB index) tracking very closely since QE2...


Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:00 | 935143 ak_khanna
ak_khanna's picture

These markets are no longer an asset class whereby the common man can invest his hard earned money and expect it to increase in the long run with increased profitability of the companies. The exchanges have been reduced to gambling dens whereby the more powerful traders with deep pockets move the markets to maximize their own profits at the expense of the remaining not so powerful players. The big boys have enormous money power to move the markets in the direction which results in maximum profits for themselves. They effectively use the media to lure the other players in the market to a position where they would incur maximum loss.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 15:05 | 935696 Seer
Seer's picture

"These markets are no longer an asset class whereby the common man can invest his hard earned money and expect it to increase in the long run with increased profitability of the companies."

But let's not assume that there's someone(s) to blame for this.  It is, after all, inevitable, for someday global growth would stop, and such stoppage WOULD stop the growth on everything else (for all practical purposes).  It's a finite world, with finite resources.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:00 | 935144 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

"...dependant on access to manure...."

of which there is no shortage....

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:01 | 935145 lsbumblebee
lsbumblebee's picture

In the American version Joe Kernan asks Rogers if stocks are commodities.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:01 | 935146 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Jim doesn't like equities because of a laundry list of risks, but the VIX is at trendline support. If I could give you one reason to avoid any market these days it's that any hint of true market forces has been rendered useless by the.ben.bernank put. That is not healthy.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:01 | 935147 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

A measure of wheat for a penny three measures of barley for a penny and see thou hurt not the oil and the wine.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 15:12 | 935721 assembler
assembler's picture

And that penny is a denarius, which was a days wage. Famine conditions, yet apparently plenty of wine and oil for the fat banksters and corrupt elite.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:02 | 935148 thepigman
thepigman's picture

I feel a disturbance in
the Force. Somebody's
getting the fuck out.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:02 | 935152 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

So when does he predict the US Government to fail?

Soon, I hope, oops....., sorry US Government already in the throes of epic fail.


Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:03 | 935156 entendance
entendance's picture

Our recent pick in phosphate business is getting hotter day by day.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:56 | 935409 serotonindumptruck
serotonindumptruck's picture

The only industrial application for lithium that I see in America's future is as a catalyst for methamphetamine production.

Ever wonder why you get "flagged" and have to show ID when purchasing camera or laptop (lithium ion) batteries?

Sat, 02/05/2011 - 15:58 | 937698 MrSteve
MrSteve's picture

We know ZH is now OFFICIAL:  hotter than a Saturday Night Special because yahoo message board-style stock pimps are posting their 10 cent stock tips here. I think that is the MO of the formerly called "vancouver exchange" manipulators, among others. Mining stocks are their larcenous snake oil.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:04 | 935157 Threeggg
Threeggg's picture

"you don't just suddenly snap your fingers and suddenly get some more palm oil".

Did anybody tell that to Carhillz and Monzanto ?


Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:05 | 935164 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

That only works with paper money.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:21 | 935213 Threeggg
Threeggg's picture

That is true:

All the Countries and BigBoys are buying up all the production of food and commodities through Futures and Options (to keep the market free & orderly) for sale back to us for a "massive profit" in the future.

Wait until they all come to redeem those paper tokens !

Will that be paper or plastic sir...............?

You can eat paper..............yes you can....and ...and Plastic to.............!

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:51 | 935377 BearOfNH
BearOfNH's picture

As JR said, in the futures and options markets for every buyer there's a seller. Who's selling to all those Countries and BigBoys, and why aren't they holding out for a higher price? There are no market-makers, all trades are voluntary.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 15:33 | 935795 Monday1929
Monday1929's picture

"palm oil"- that should be useful for all you Zero Hedgers.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 21:18 | 936588 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

Lots of people here are angry and complaining to the government after the price of palm oil just jumped 20% to $1.30/litre.  Stores are limiting sales to one litre per family.  Many people cook their food in palm oil.  They want to know where did that 20% go.  To Jim in Singapore maybe?

I'm not knocking Jim though.  He tells it like it is.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:04 | 935161 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

Flight to quality bitchez....what's the dollar fx right now?

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:10 | 935195 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

77.75 l already knew the answer just rubbing it in. Go dollar! Nobody respects you any more but i do.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 15:08 | 935706 Seer
Seer's picture

Yeah, and the USD is upside down to the CAD.  Another call that I'd made correctly :-)

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:05 | 935163 Savonarola
Savonarola's picture

I'm a farmer and Rogers does not know what he is talking about.

The boom in prices will cause overplanting and a collapse in prices.

If you are young - don't go into farming.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:12 | 935205 Cow
Cow's picture

trying to scare away the competition?

need some more protectionism?  some price supports maybe?

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:05 | 935460 Savonarola
Savonarola's picture

There are no price supports for what I grow, or protection.



Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:19 | 935509 Attitude_Check
Attitude_Check's picture

So your a "Hemp" farmer I see.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:30 | 935561 Savonarola
Savonarola's picture

I grow veggies (some herbal "medicines" -ho ho), but mostly garlic, potatoes and tomatoes.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 21:28 | 936598 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

Kudos to Savonarola for being a farmer. 

My wife wants me to get into rubber.  [Does that sound right?]  But so many trees have been planted in the past 5-6 years that I foresee the problem you describe.

But for locally grown, perishable things like veggies (some herbal "medicines" -ho ho), but mostly garlic, potatoes and tomatoes.  Demand is only likely to increase as the cost of hauling that stuff around from one end of America to the other is going to get prohibitive.

Have you read 'The Name of the Rose' by Umberto Eco?  Savonarola plays a big part in the story.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 22:49 | 936722 barkster
barkster's picture

into latex myself   >:-//

Sat, 02/05/2011 - 10:31 | 937258 Savonarola
Savonarola's picture

Rubber?  I wish you luck.

The locavore effect will only last until oil is cheap again.

Having lived through the 1970's I know it will happen.

Oil will get cheap again and everyone who invested with costly oil in mind will get crushed.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 22:35 | 936698 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

garlic: antiviral, antibacterial, antifungal, effective in lowering blood pressure, regulate blood sugars, analgesic for toothaches, anti-coagulant, blood thinner. . .

serious, simple "medicine". . .

Sat, 02/05/2011 - 10:37 | 937270 Savonarola
Savonarola's picture

I consume plenty of garlic each day. Aches and pains have vanished.  But, getting Vitamin D is also part of the health gig. Don't listen to the gummint. Get your kids out into the sun, and let them eat dirt when they play... it's the best thing for them. 

Sun, 02/06/2011 - 01:55 | 938462 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

I agree about the Vitamin D - currently living where the geo-engineering aerosols don't allow for much blue sky, sadly, but supplements can be beneficial. . . and the only "kids" I have are of the hooved kind (angora goats, ha!), but they do consume pretty much anything, including dirt.

(while I'm here, elderberries as tincture (steeped in vodka), or with honey as syrup - works great with any respiratory illness, "flu" - easy, inexpensive, less dependency on medical pharma. . .)

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:14 | 935210 Racer
Racer's picture

And the massive rises in costs to produce will squeeze the very slim margins. The farmer is never the one that gains the most, it is usually the supermarkets who hike the prices and then blame farmers who they have already squeezed massively

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 21:29 | 936601 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

The farmer is never the one that gains the most

Living off the land has it's own rewards if you do it right.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:13 | 935214 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

I'm a farmer and Rogers is spot on. While large operations can and will gear up for the large commodity grains, it is still dependent on weather and weather has been a problem worldwide.

Further, farmers are not in a position to "gear up" for regular fruits, vegetables, grass fed livestock and any labor intensive farm operations. These are excellent money crops and there is a great future for the small farmer. Especially as transportation costs rise and local operations grow.

I couldn't disagree with you more.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 15:13 | 935725 AZSovreign
AZSovreign's picture


Fri, 02/04/2011 - 15:19 | 935745 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

   Didn't know that....midwest?

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 15:27 | 935775 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

Western Kentucky. 50 acres tillable in specialty crops and grass fed livestock. Small farmer. 

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 15:31 | 935791 Flakmeister
Flakmeister's picture

You are in an enviable position...hard work though. I spend time working as a hand over the summer in my youth...

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 18:13 | 936291 GreenSideUp
GreenSideUp's picture

These are excellent money crops and there is a great future for the small farmer.

I agree with this and hope you're right.  Am currently trying to "coerce" one of my siblings into going into small farming with me.  Hard work, yeah, but I'm used to it; have worked in ag all my life and love it.  

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 19:39 | 936428 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

yup. Just look at how much stuff is produced in central california based upon artifical water source which is changing along with the weather. Vegetables are very particular about their needs. That together with peak oil plus destroyed soil is dramatically changing the food game.   

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 21:34 | 936606 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

DJ - I see the real emerging problem with California agriculture is that all that produce has to get hauled somewhere.  That is becoming increasingly expensive.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 22:11 | 936666 Yits and the Yimrum
Yits and the Yimrum's picture

Have been working the past 5 years to bring on orchards, gardens, maple syrup production to supply the family with increasing amounts of fresh and processed fruit and vegetables.

One problem is a hostile big govt that even in a small rural town in the Midwest (on 5 acres on the outskirts of town), does not allow for the keeping of any small farm animals.

the pigs are not only in the barns, but in the state and local govt's

we need to pass right to farm legislation, but just the opposite is happening

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 22:43 | 936713 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

no small farm animals??  goats, chickens even?  some towns in the PNW are allowing folk to keep chickens, a single goat, and dig up useless grass lawns for gardens front and back!

varies from town to town, but people are lobbying for the right to have their own food, sourced local. . .

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:20 | 935248 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

So what overplanting exactly?  We already farm as much land as we possibly can at all times because, generally speaking, it is the most productive use of the land...  Are you suggesting that backyard gardens are going to offset the world's food needs?  Further, how does the expansion of the world's population factor into your analysis... 

He is ABSOLUTELY RIGHT about the age of farmers.  Further, mechanics and persons who can work on farm equipment are in short supply as well...  There is no one there to pick up the torch...

I hope you are right...  that we can magically increase productivity all around the world...  but I think you're sorely mistaken.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:27 | 935277 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

You can't treat food like a commodity. It's vital to survival. It's the only thing on the planet that you must and I mean MUST overproduce ALWAYS. When you see spoiled or diseased food being sold you know we are not at overproduction points. We are there.

Zerohedge had an article listing a good amount of spoiled and diseased food sales happening.

You can't tell farmers price of food is based on supply and demand when YOU MUST OVERPRODUCE it or face famines shortages and riots.

And you can't treat farmers all like sharecroppers. They are EXTREMELY sophisticated businessmen. Able to understand things scientifically as well as do many things from welding to engine rebuilding. Farmers are quite literally the most valuable tradesmen on the planet and shouldn't be treated the way they are.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:38 | 935325 aheady
aheady's picture

Great comment.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:04 | 935457 wisefool
wisefool's picture

You can't treat food like a commodity. It's vital to survival. It's the only thing on the planet that you must and I mean MUST overproduce ALWAYS. When you see spoiled or diseased food being sold you know we are not at overproduction points. We are there.

That was also true for shelter/housing. Which created the economic mess we are in now. The next electrified rail we should not manipulate will be water, but we will do that too. After that ... it gets really dicey in the einstienian sense.
Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:30 | 935560 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

You are attributing one aspect of fractional reserve banking and saying it's the entire things problem.

Housing blew up during the great depression. You better ask yourself why and look at the ENTIRE system to figure that out.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:57 | 935673 wisefool
wisefool's picture

I am trying to, and admit I may not be as sophisticated as many of you folks here. But didn't they not print during GD1 which kept commodity prices down and washed out all the housing speculators?

Fractional reserve banking -> Loose money -> Housing Bubble -> Bailouts, QE123456 -> even looser money -> money chasing value -> Commodity inflation.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 15:40 | 935817 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

In GD1, there was a concerted effort to create cartels in every industry- including farming. Crops would be dumped to create scarcity. It was further hampered by smoot- hawley which killed the global markets as well. The government also pressured groups to maintain labor and wage levels. Then, liquidity was intentionally dried up which made it impossible to get loans to plant crops. Then the banks came in and took the property.

There were so many interventions that were uncoordinated that it is hard to point to just the worse half dozen. Competing agencies with competing agendas and two power centers in Morgan and Rockefeller.

This time will be different, because all the factors are different- domestically, regionally and globally. We are no longer the only economic superpower, there is a diffusion of power and influence. Interdependence has created supply and demand webs that are essential to the creation of products. The central banks are coordinating like a one world government, western influence is ascending and Asia is tagging along for the ride. 

Finally, for once in a long while, the people may not go along- see Brezinski's latest spiel and you have a witches brew of factors and a draught of uncertainty.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:48 | 935629 snowball777
snowball777's picture


Fri, 02/04/2011 - 20:23 | 936517 naughtius maximus
naughtius maximus's picture

shame on the junker! Great comment and I agree. My neighbor is a farmer and he is a very talented person.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:31 | 935293 Threeggg
Threeggg's picture

What does Farming have to do with Grain prices.

you jest........................................?

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:06 | 935399 the rookie cynic
the rookie cynic's picture

We need more small farms and gardens. Everyone should be a bit of a farmer.

Arable land is getting eaten up by population growth and sprawl. Water is getting more scarce. Weather is wacky. Resilience and sustainability in the food production system are goals to work towards. We need more farms like this one:

Monsanto and big AG have "patented" food. Their model is technology and energy intensive and only works if there's cheap oil to run it. It's a monoculture menace. They try to kill off any small operations. (They've been tremendously successful as this.) The Monsanto monsters now "own" corn and soybeans and have armies of attorneys to enforce their dominion. Many average farmers have no choice but to be their slaves.

Average meal travels 1500 miles before you eat it. In what world does that make sense? We need more local growers, less dependence of fossil fuels for production and fertilizer, and less corporatization of food supply.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 17:49 | 936253 GreenSideUp
GreenSideUp's picture


Fri, 02/04/2011 - 19:32 | 936410 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

our corrupt, broken supreme court has let us down so many times but letting corporations patent food was one of their biggest  

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 22:58 | 936740 barkster
barkster's picture

guess who worked for monsanto? clarence thomas (and hillary)...

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 21:37 | 936615 Bringin It
Bringin It's picture

Everyone should be a bit of a farmer.   ++

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 23:16 | 936772 Cathartes Aura
Cathartes Aura's picture

great post cynic!

Monsanto and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) have completed a biotechnology consultation process for a key component of the company’s high-oleic soybeans, the biotech giant has said.

left out of that story is the installation of a Monsanto shill at the FDA:

(NaturalNews) A former lobbyist and Monsanto employee who is credited with playing an instrumental role in introducing genetically modified milk and known carcinogens into the U.S. Food supply has been hired as a key advisor for the FDA.

Michael Taylor has been hired to advise Margaret Hamburg, the FDA's commissioner of food and drugs. In his new position, Taylor will also work with the FDA Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition, the Center for Veterinary Medicine, the Office of Regulatory Affairs, Congress and the White House.

Learn more:
add Codex Alimentarius, the WHO's lawbook on "food standards" trying to "normalise" the global food supply chain, weather modification courtesy the Military Industrial Complex, etc. - it appears growing your own food is quite a rebellious act!
Fri, 02/04/2011 - 14:34 | 935579 Treeplanter
Treeplanter's picture

JR is talking long term, as usual.  Global cooling is going to mean failed crops in colder latitudes.  Population is growing.  Newly properous third world middle class wants to eat more meat, that means more grain is needed.  We have a lot of fallow land in this country.  We will get by.

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 15:14 | 935730 Seer
Seer's picture

No, the boom in prices will be due to increased input costs.  Input costs have been supressed.  What's happening is that the market is starting to strip away the externalized costs/pricing.  Further, the value of ag land is going up, this even after the pressures from the development era.

Yes, the big fish splashing around are causing shifts, but you have to understand why we're down to fewer, bigger fish and why the water is becoming shallower.  It's not enough to stand back and shout "BIG FISH!"

BTW - How are you managing fertilizers (costs)?  "Home grown?"  Imported?  And water?

Fri, 02/04/2011 - 13:05 | 935166 Jay Gould Esq.
Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

I recall a comment Jim made years ago during an earlier CNBC interview ( with either the effete Bill Griffeth or the barnacled Mark Haines ), when asked about the "hot money" of the time and its destination -- the interviewer querying Mr. Rogers as to why he showed no interest in said sector ( I believe it was four-letter-stock oriented, referenced interview conducted during the go-go era of the late '90s ), Jim responded, much to the chagrin of the news reader back in the studio,

"If that's where the smart money is, I'd rather be dumb."

Discard Jim Rogers' advice at your own portfolio peril.

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