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Job Gains Providing a Ray of False Hope?

Leo Kolivakis's picture




 

Via Pension Pulse.

John Weisenthal of Clusterstock discussed his thoughts on Friday's job figures and put up an image of the scariest jobs chart ever (HT: Réal):

The
key thing to realize about today's good jobs report is that it was
only good relative to expectations. Private sector job creation of
67,000 is not that impressive in any real sense.

 

And indeed, the latest update of the scariest jobs chart ever from Calculated Risk
-- which shows how deep these jobs losses are compared to past
recessions -- shows this comeback still isn't anything like past
comebacks, and it will be ages before we get back to even.

Private
sector job creation is the key to any sustainable recovery, but as the
chart above shows, you need to create a lot of jobs to repair the
devastation since 2007. In that sense, today's figures are not that
impressive, but one can only hope they're indicating better days ahead.

Phil Izzo of the WSJ provided reaction to today's figures from a number of economists:

It is a sigh of relief.
The labor market in August was lethargic, but better than feared
reducing the fears of a double-dip recession. Private payrolls went up
67,000 even though the overall nonfarm payroll fell 54,000 due to the
census layoff. –Sung Won Sohn, Smith School of Business and Economics

 

The August employment report confirms
the “Big Stall” rather than outright contraction in the economy…
Saying the economy isn’t about to contract is not, unfortunately, the
same thing as saying that growth momentum has returned. If anything, a
read into the details of the report indicates the extent of the
economy’s stall. The growth in private payrolls was confined to
Healthcare & Social Assistance (which seems to go up every month
regardless), temp workers plus construction — of which 10,000 of the
19,000 were returning strikers. Everything else summed to zero and all
of these sectors reported numbers that were marginally on one side or
the other of zero. –Steven Blitz, Majestic Research

 

The soft patch for jobs may have been extended for a fourth month today, but momentum in the economy is building and we can rule out a double-dip. –Christopher Rupkey, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi

 

Government employment losses
in August more than offset the gains in private-sector employment.
Most of the drop in public-sector payrolls is explained by the departure
of 114,000 temporary Census workers. However, state and local
government payrolls also continued to shrink in August. Since the start
of this year state and local public-sector payrolls have fallen
135,000, or almost 17,000 per month. These job losses are almost
certainly linked to the expected end of federal fiscal relief under the
Administration’s stimulus program. –Gary Burtless, Brookings Institution

 

Nonfarm [private] payrolls expanded
by 67,000 in August… 67,000 jobs is just not enough and it cannot be
spun otherwise. At the same time, the economy does continue to add a
modest amount of jobs — since December 2009, private employment has
increased by 763,000 jobs. This is not enough, especially so given the
8+ million jobs shed during the recession, but it is something. Given
the increase in corporate profits among U.S. corporations, ongoing
gains in payrolls should not be surprising. –Dan Greenhaus, Miller Tabak

 

In August, job creation occurred
across a number of sectors, including health care, construction,
mining, and temporary help services for professional and business
services. Despite the decline in total jobs, this report was mildly
positive, as private sector jobs helped alleviate some of the Census
losses. A recovery is clearly underway, although it will be a slow one
for the job market. –Jason Schenker, Prestige Economics

 

Construction employment registered
an uptick for the first time since April. The nonres category
accounted for all of the gain. This may be related to a ramping up of
infrastructure projects. Manufacturing employment fell for the first
time since December but this reflected a seasonal unwind of the rise in
auto industry jobs that was evident in July. Moreover, the average
workweek in the manufacturing sector ticked up 0.1 hours, so we see a
manufacturing activity excluding motor vehicles up a sharp 0.8% in
August –David Greenlaw, Morgan Stanley

 

Private payrolls increased
by 67,000 last month, down from 107,000 in July. However, that
apparent slowdown may just be an illusion. Employment at vehicle
manufacturing plants jumped by 22,000 in July and then fell back by
exactly the same amount in August. We suspect this is a distortion
caused by the unusually small number of plant shutdowns this summer.
Strip that out and private employment growth actually pick up a little
bit last month. –Paul Ashworth, Capital Economics

 

It looks like the momentum in employment
has been roughly steady in recent months at a modest pace that will
not be enough to hold the unemployment rate steady. At current rates of
labor force participation, the economy needs to generate 100,000 jobs
to hold the unemployment rate steady. –Julia Coronado, BNP Paribas

 

Viewed in isolation,
a 67,000 private payroll increase this far into the recovery is very
poor. But viewed against low expectations and against fears that the
economy may be tumbling into a double-dip recession, today’s report is
good news. It suggests that the recovery may be wobbly but that it is
still staggering forward. –Nigel Gault, IHS Global Insight

 

The fact that the labor market did not stall
in August as many had feared suggests the recovery is sustained, if
not robust. The increase in temp hiring suggests that employers, while
suspicious about the strength of demand, see orders strong enough to
justify taking on more help. The most recent Challenger report also
suggests that companies have cut payrolls so deeply that any increase in
demand will require more hiring. Businesses have squeezed as much as
they can from their current workforces; once the economy gains some
momentum, more permanent hiring is sure to follow. –Sophia Koropeckyj, Moody’s Economy.com

 

Not a double dip, but still pretty anemic. So, stronger-than-expected, yes. Strong, no. –Stephen Stanley, Pierpoint Securities

 

The small amount of job gains
during the past few months not only reflects the response to slow
output growth, but also a lack of confidence going forward. While this
expansion might seem similar to recent post-recession periods, it is in
fact much different. The economy as a whole has been weakened by a
dismal housing market and slow consumption, which especially hamper
small and medium- sized enterprises. Modest gains in private sector
jobs, coupled with the large decline in government employment, are
consistent with our forecast for continued sluggish growth. –Bart van Ark, The Conference Board

 

The labor market has entered
a holding pattern. After relatively mild improvements earlier this
year, the key indicators of the strength of the labor market have shown
virtually no improvement in recent months. The private sector has added
an average of 78,000 jobs each month for the past three months, not
nearly enough to begin to reduce unemployment. –Heather Boushey, Center for American Progress

 

Hourly earnings post
their biggest rise since January of this year at 0.3%
month-over-month, this translates into a 1.7% month-over-month in
wages. Hours worked which are still low remained at 34.2; we would look
for this to improve further before we started to see any real
aggressive in additions to payrolls. Temporary help also resumes
additions, we like this as a leading indicator as temporary workers are
far more flexible and firms are more willing to take them on in the
early stages of a recovery. In a labour force of 154 million, these
increases are not going to set the world alight (or more importantly
drive strong consumer spending), but people will take encouragement
where their can find it especially heading into a holiday weekend. –David Semmens, Standard Chartered Bank

 

The largest increases in unemployment
were among African Americans who saw their overall rate rise 0.8
percentage points to 16.3 percent, near the recession peak. The
unemployment rate for black teens jumped 4.8 percentage points to 45.4%.
Unemployment for Hispanics edged down to 12.0 percent, a full
percentage point below its year-ago level. –Dean Baker, Center for Economic and Policy Research

Dean Baker is also predicting a 10% decline in house prices for the year and recently wrote this comment in counterpunch, Burning Down the House:

The
howls of surprised economists were everywhere last week as the
government reported on Tuesday that July had the sharpest single-month
plunge in existing home sales on record. The next day the Commerce
Department reported that new home sales hit a post-war low in July.

 

All
the economists who had told us that the housing market had stabilized
and that prices would soon rebound looked really foolish yet again. To
understand how lost these professional error-makers really are it is
only necessary to know that the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) puts
out data on mortgage applications every week. The MBA index plummeted
beginning in May, immediately after the last day (April 30) for signing
a house sale contract that qualified for the homebuyers tax credit.

 

It
typically takes 6-8 weeks between when a contract is signed and a
house sale closes. The plunge in applications in May meant that
homebuyers were not signing contracts to buy homes. This meant that
sales would plummet in July. Economists with a clue were not surprised
by the July plunge in home sales.

 

What
should be clear is that the tax credits helped to pull housing demand
forward. People who might have bought in the second half of 2010 or
even 2011 instead bought their home before the tax credit expired. Now
that the credit has expired, there is less demand than ever, leaving
the market open for another plunge in prices. The support the tax
credit gave to the housing market was only temporary.

 

It
is worth asking what was accomplished by spending tens of billions of
dollars to prop up the market for a bit over a year with these tax
credits. First, this allowed millions of people to sell their home over
this period at a higher price than would have otherwise been the case.
The flip side is that more than five million people bought homes at
prices that were still inflated by the bubble. Many of these buyers
will see substantial loses when they resell their house.

 

The
banks also had a stake in this. The homebuyers tax credit prevented
prices from declining as rapidly as would have been the case otherwise.
This allowed millions of homeowners to be able to sell their home at a
price where they could pay off their mortgage. This made banks who
could have been holding underwater mortgages very happy.

 

Of
course someone had to issue the mortgage to all those people who
bought homes at prices that are still inflated by the bubble. The
overwhelming majority of the mortgages issued in the last year and a
half are insured by the government, either through Fannie Mae and
Freddie Mac, or through HUD. So, taxpayers are carrying the risk that
further price declines will push these mortgages underwater, not banks
or private investors.

 

The
further plunge in house prices will have serious implications for the
course of the recovery. By my calculations, the decline in house prices
through the first half of 2009 eliminated $5-6 trillion of the $8
trillion of housing equity created by the bubble. Look to the further
declines in the rest of this year to eliminate most or all of the
remaining bubble equity.

 

The loss of this
wealth will further dampen growth. This should drive home the fact that
house prices, like the NASDAQ following the tech crash, are not coming
back. Homeowners will have to come to grips with this massive loss of
wealth. While many commentators (no doubt the surprised ones) complain
that consumption is low, the reality is that consumption is still at an
unusually high level relative to disposable income.

 

Furthermore,
with a huge cohort of baby boomers approaching retirement with almost
no wealth, there will be more need to save than ever. This need to save
is accentuated by the plans of those in the Obama Administration and
the congressional leadership to cut Social Security.

 

This
means that we should expect consumption spending to weaken sharply in
the second half of 2010 and into 2011 as the savings rate rises into
the 8-10 percent range, further slowing economic growth. This comes
against a backdrop where final demand had only been growing at a 1.2
percent average rate over the last four quarters.

 

Final
demand is GDP, excluding inventories. Growth was boosted over the last
year by the restocking of inventories. This process is largely
completed, which means that we should expect GDP growth to be pretty
much equal to final demand growth going forward.

 

Starting
with a 1.2 percent growth rate, then throwing in weaker consumption
due to further house price declines, state and local government
cutbacks, and the winding down of stimulus, it is questionable whether
growth will even remain positive over the next four quarters. Given all
these negative factors, it is very hard to construct a story showing
the economy on a healthy growth path, even though many economists still
seem to think it is. Of course these economists were probably
surprised by last month’s home sales data.

These
are sobering thoughts from an economist who was among the first to
predict the US housing crisis. Even if job creation picks up, it will do
little to dent the fall in house prices. So while today's figures were
better than expected, much more is needed to get the US economy back on
solid footing. Below, I leave you with an overview of the August jobs
report.

 

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Sat, 09/04/2010 - 16:20 | 563898 spinone
spinone's picture

Don't worry, a new bacteria has been discovered. It eat debts and poops jobs.

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 16:06 | 563885 mrhonkytonk1948
mrhonkytonk1948's picture

Maybe they need to start polling unemployed economists. 

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 15:37 | 563862 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Statistics from the Small Business Administration (SBA). Small businesses:

  • Represent 99.7% of all employer[s]
  • Employ just over half of all private-sector employees
  • Pay 44% of total U.S. private payroll
  • Have generated 64% of net new jobs over the past 15 years
  • Create more than half of the nonfarm private gross domestic product (GDP)
  • Hire 40% of high-tech workers (such as scientists, engineers and computer programmers)
  • Are 52% home-based and 2% franchises
  • Made up 97.3% of all identified exporters and produced 30.2% of the known export value in FY 2007.
  • Small firms produce 13 times more patents per employee than large patenting firms; these patents are twice as likely as large-firm patents to be among the 1% most cited."

Did they get help first?  Nope.  Are they getting help now?  Nope.

Lip service doesn't pay the bills!

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 14:26 | 563800 Hang The Fed
Hang The Fed's picture

Leo, what if they don't really care to fix the job situation?  What if the end-game is, in fact, a steady decline until we are all completely dependent on the state for our basic needs?  I find the fact that, on a popular level, we're looking to government policy to fix the unemployment situation to be a very dangerous sign that there's a tremendous amount of inertia in that direction as it is.

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 15:20 | 563845 Leo Kolivakis
Leo Kolivakis's picture

I don't think anyone expects the state to fix unemployment, but inertia is also present among businesses.

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 13:42 | 563752 Bear
Bear's picture

Hope ... Hope ... Hope

Hope that we will return to 4%+ growth, Hope that we will return to full employment? Hope that that our combined debt will go away? Hope that SP will return to 1400?

or

Hope that we survive as a nation? 

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 14:27 | 563803 Hang The Fed
Hang The Fed's picture

Or, even more dire, whether or not we survive as a species?  Everywhere you look, the signs are not good on the longer time line.

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 13:32 | 563740 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

That chart looks like the electrical wiring I did in the bathroom last month.

And everytime I turn on the light, every day becomes the 4th of July!

PARTY PARTY PARTY BABY!!

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 13:33 | 563739 Bankster T Cubed
Bankster T Cubed's picture

yeah...whatever

any talk about the B(L)S number without examining the birth/death component and the full time/part time component is a whole lot of stupid talk

anyone making conclusions based on the headline number is by definition af total fucktard

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 12:01 | 563658 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

I enjoy the anecdotes and stories, ZH'ers. Keep 'em coming...

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 11:21 | 563612 TuesdayBen
TuesdayBen's picture

"...devastation caused by the financial crisis"...

How about: "devastation wrought by the gubmint's intrusion into the financial markets, particularly the residential mortgage business, and further damage caused by the gubmint's feckless ongoing response to said devastation".

Uncle Sam - picture Bawney Fwank in your mind's eye - sucks at most things he takes a stab at, and he really sucks when he tries to be a businessman.  He'll shortly prove to be a shitty doctor, too.

Pack your bags, Uncle Sam, and take your sorry ass out of our lives.

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 10:11 | 563573 Rogerwilco
Rogerwilco's picture

An acquaintance of ours worked for the census bureau, from March until last week when she was laid off. She claims managers were told in July to stagger the layoffs and spread them out as long as possible, even if that meant paying workers to do the same tasks twice. Another extend and pretend scheme using taxpayer and borrowed funds.

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 09:45 | 563560 Lndmvr
Lndmvr's picture

On my weekly inspection run I see........ New houses being built, not new sub divisions but the filling out of old ones. Home additions being built, new roofs being put on. Lots and lots of house for sale signs. As this is Iowa, 2 story refurbed farm style houses going for 50K in great shape. Lots of older pieces of crap starting to fall in on them selves. Giant 100k farm machines crawling around the back roads, not a work scrape on them. ( Harvest is coming). $1.75 for a bottle of coke at the Caseys but 2 gatorades @ $3. Not many cars on the road but I drive during others work hours. I've been working steady 1 day a week but looks like 2 days coming next week. To me it still looks like things are slowing down.

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 12:20 | 563642 TuesdayBen
TuesdayBen's picture

I recently returned from a visit to that neck of the cornbelt in which I grew up.  It continues to whither on the vine, downtowns dead, manufacturing dwindling, gubmint-approved casinos everywhere, immigrants from all over the world - Somalia, SE Asia, Central America, lots and lots of folks sponging off the gubmint...  The farmers in my area are on the verge of a HUGE year, with record corn and bean crops and good prices.  A farmer buddy of mine rolls some of his profits into small town single family homes - from $500 to $7,500 dollars, which he then leases out to folks on gubmint rent handouts, generally meth addicts and young women with kids from multiple illegal alien 'fathers'.

But at least the fishing is still good.  I mean, you must be licensed by your government to try and catch one!  In fact, the local Game Warden - I believe they are now known as Conservation Officers - checked my license.  Guy drove a sweet, enormous, state-funded diesel rig, behind which he pulled one of the finest boats in town with state of the art, state-funded electronics.  Ya know, if gubmint didn't try to keep control of everything, everyone, and every fish, my neck of the cornbelt would be an ugly picture....

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 10:14 | 563569 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

New law:  All persons reporting gross income of over one million dollars a year are placed into a drawing constituency.  This is done by lottery, sort of like jury duty.  They have to set aside 30 days each year, given $500 in cash, and dropped off in a city of 100,000 or less of their choosing, not in a coastal or border state.  Identification shall consist of no more than a drivers license, social security card, and emergency contact information.  No communication method (cell, i-crap, or otherwise), one duffel bag of standard Army issue with nothing but clothing allowed.   Maximum number of "participants" is 1,000 per year.  Any media who encounter the participant are fined $10,000 or 30 days in jail for each question asked or minute of video taken.  After the "expedition" each participant is required to attend a 1 hour debriefing fully televised.

Fantasy land, of course. Of such things dreams are sometimes made.  The first thing they will do is buy a phone and have their jet sent to pick them up.  They will, however, have encountered at least one ordinary person.  After some time it will become a matter of pride that they stuck it out and the degree of misery they suffer will become a badge of honor.  Will it do any good?  Who gives a shit.  At least we will have made a point.  Welcome to the "real economy".

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 12:00 | 563657 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

I don't think it's all wealthy people per se. I know a couple of people that make that sort of money, and they provide decent value to society. It's the military/industrial complex, the war mongers, the bureaucrats, the politicians, the lobbyists, the banksters, the financial services cabal, the regulators, the union bosses, the for-profit schools, etc. 

And the unwashed masses unwilling to learn what's going on, and challenge for a better future. 

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 15:30 | 563854 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

...military/industrial complex, the war mongers, the bureaucrats, the politicians, the lobbyists, the banksters, the financial services cabal, the regulators, the union bosses, the for-profit schools, etc.

They would be on the list! That's the sort of talent we need in the Poor Brigade raffle.

There is no culling of the wealthy "good people" here.  Not all street people are nasty, smelly, thieving thugs either.  You'll get a few decent folks in the mix.  So what.

I don't care if they learn a lesson or anything else.  I just want them to SEE the regular folks and encounter at least one before they go back to their version of civilization.

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 10:43 | 563590 Rogerwilco
Rogerwilco's picture

@rocky

I live in one of those towns -- here is what would happen to the poor soul in your little fantasy. They would find numerous churches and shelters offering government subsidized assistance. At a minimum, our traveler would have access to 4-6 meals a day, a cot, and a shower, with the only requirement being that he not present himself drunk or high. If he didn't like the stuffy atmosphere of church digs, he could wander down to the tent city near the river where dozens of bums live illegally, drinking, smoking dope, and screwing. They collect food stamps that pay for the necessities, and for spending money many of them hold silly cardboard signs (ex.: I'm $5 short of a hooker) and beg for money at busy intersections. This begging earns an average of $15/hour, tax free, or about twice as much as any "real job" they might get, and the hours are flexible.

The police tried to break up this happy little party Over the Summer and cap the blatant illegal activities in and around the camp. The result? Three cops have been fired, two are on suspension, and the bum's pro-bono lawyer has filed a lawsuit against the city.

Poverty is just a state of mind, so I'm not sure what your experiment might accomplish. A "wealthy" person placed in a situation with few assets will not remain there for long.

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 15:32 | 563857 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Roger!  That's what I want them to experience.  Either way they are more enlightened when they return to "normal" life.  They can be hardened to the free-lunch bunch, or they can be softened by the truly indigent.  That's not the point.  The idea is to get them out once in a while to trod the dusty roads.

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 10:53 | 563596 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Yeah, it's certainly a paradise for those 'bums'. Were they always bums or did they have jobs at one time?

You forgot to mention that the bums get to enjoy free head lice, bed bugs, fire ants, misquitoes, scorpions, spiders, snakes, etc.

A diet of mostly starch.

No privacy.

Living in fear of beatings, stabbings, murder by other bums or skin head passers by.

Never a good nites sleep for fear of fellow bums or teens that think setting fire to bums is fun.

Constant hassels by cops.

Yeah, a real paradise...lol

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 11:26 | 563619 Rogerwilco
Rogerwilco's picture

@snidely

Sorry, these bums are a cut above your Hollywood stereotype. They have taken over the city's parks where they lay about soaking in the sun on warm days. During the Winter months they can sit in the warm shelters and watch TV. Most of then are dressed in nice, clean clothes courtesy of the numerous assistance programs. The idiots that run these handout efforts constantly try to expand them because it brings in more government money and expands the size of their little bureaucratic fiefdoms. Lazy people aren't adverse to taking advantage of a good deal when they see one, so the number of "homeless" continues to expand.

The latest trend I see is that many of them now have dogs in tow. Think about that for a minute, we have bums that can afford to keep and feed pets. A group of bums was hanging out in front of our local Albertsons grocery store near the river. There were several dogs among them and they sat there eating, smoking, and making a lot of noise. When I came out ten minutes later, they were gone, but a store employee was busy cleaning up the trash and dog shit they left behind.

I'm not against programs to help the truly destitute, especially families in need. But what I see in our town is a growth industry that caters to a group of lazy-ass freeloaders. Do-gooders and do-nothings conspiring to suck the blood out of society. What a country.

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 09:39 | 563543 ZackAttack
ZackAttack's picture

U-6: 16.7%. The birth/death model adds 115,000 jobs. Does anyone believe it, even for an instant? If they're going to lie, could they even bother to lie convincingly... 19,000 new construction jobs? 70,000 new retail jobs? 45,000 new health services jobs? What utter bullshit.

How many more are underemployed? 8.9 million people now are involuntarily employed part-time. Around here, I see 2000 degreed people applying for a job as a waiter in a minimum-wage steakhouse chain.

Wall Street celebrates this. It should be thinking instead of fleeing someplace without an extradition treaty. Or lampposts.

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 08:31 | 563537 Invisible Hand
Invisible Hand's picture

I think the huge amount of hot air about a jobs report that is obviously manipulated (birth-death always more birthy than deathy even in such an obviously crappy economy) is a sign of desperation (or the need by pundits to keep their name in front of the public).

Jobs are the real issue but rather than allowing and encouraging investment in job creation in productive industries, we waste our resources in mal-investment to buy votes and political bribes by supporting parasites (i.e. banksters and union thugs).

Those whose livelihoods and high positions are totally dependant on the current economic and political system must find something, anything, to say that justifies the continuation of this rotten system.

I, for one, am working and studying how to extricate myself from this parody of a society.  While my options are limited, due to age and health, I understand and support that at some point that the people to whom the future belong, the young, will reject this dishonest fraud of a government and market. 

While the results for myself will probably be tragic, I think we are past the point where half measures will work.

My only concern is whether, after 50 years of dishonest education about what makes a society good, successful and free, will we choose a worse system of governance rather than a return to a better one.

I fear a Beerhall Putsch is as likely as a Declaration of Independence.  Regardless, the current system is on the edge of exhaustion.  When the lack of credit forces austerity on most, or all governments, the resulting suffering will trigger enormous social unrest.  Will people demand freedom of opportunity or accept serfdom in return for handouts?  Probably some societies will choose one, some the other.  Obviously, the cozy dependancy and sense of entitlement fostered over the last 80 years has reached the end of its run.

All of us would prefer not to have to accept this "bitter cup" but no one gets to choose their times, only how they act in the circumstances they find themselves in.  I hope that Americans will choose shared austerity and rebuilding a society based on individual responsibility and economic freedom, regardless of whether that means that my continued existence is too expensive a luxury for our society during this transition.  If we choose the apparently easier path of avoiding responsibility for our lives in return for being "cared for", we will soon discover that we have neither freedom, nor comfort.

The alternative to inequality of outcomes for individuals (some successful, some miserable--based on their unequal efforts and gifts) is not the equality of outcome of a utopia (all moderately successful-rulers and ruled) but the equality of outcome of a tyranny (all miserable-except the rulers).  Your choice, your fate. 

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 11:51 | 563650 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

+100

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 08:48 | 563539 Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

I am not aware of a single society in the long history of mankind that has turned it self around to a better path(without 1st dissintegrating or getting conquered), your hope goes against 10000 years of history I am afraid

Not to mention that there are very sophisticated and resoursfull interests that do everything to fragment and weaken all societies of the West, many of the policies that have been adopted(by the backdoor) in the Western world have the same purpose as the British getting the Chineese addicted to Opium 1 century ago, make them dumb and happy than scare them with a little terrorism and the World is at your feet

Humans are no different than Lemmings, even though we like to brag about being the only Intelligent species on this Planet and some say in the Universe(lol)

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 17:01 | 563939 hamster wheel
hamster wheel's picture

I am not aware of a single society in the long history of mankind that has turned it self around to a better path (without 1st dissintegrating or getting conquered), your hope goes against 10000 years of history I am afraid.

 

There might be a (very) few exceptions to this, but then, exceptions often tend to prove the rule.  Great point.

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 07:06 | 563507 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

'how are ghost jobs any hope at all?

when are we are going to stop lying about what's happening, acknowledge it, and start doing something about ?

like fire bernanke, and then indict him.

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 07:20 | 563511 Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

Punishing 1 man (or a small group) for the failure of society, is that really going to help, or do we just Burn The Witch! and carry on as usual till the next election/recession/depression

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 10:40 | 563591 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

Who is to say that 'burning the witch' would not help consumer sentiment or buoy the economy?

Romans went to the circus to watch the lions eat christians...did it make the Romans feel better?

Something was accomplished by Roman Circuses, otherwise the rulers would not have spent the money on them.

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 10:48 | 563595 Everyman
Everyman's picture

The bulltards such as the one posting that "burning the witches" will not do anything for the market, is talking out boths sides of his butt.  Isn't this the same sentiment that the bulltards are pushing that the market is driven by sentiment and psychology??

 

You can't have it both ways.  Well said Snidley

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 09:46 | 563561 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

You are on the right track.  Here is a good article to explore that:

Guest Post: The Prosecution’s Case Against Alan Greenspan
Sat, 09/04/2010 - 05:58 | 563486 Azannoth
Azannoth's picture

Why there are no jobs in Amerika

 

http://www.dailywealth.com/1449/This-Is-Why-There-Are-No-Jobs-in-America

 

If you consider what the man sais it's hard to believe that we have ANY (non government) jobs left

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 13:13 | 563720 JW n FL
JW n FL's picture
Azannoth, Brilliant read... Thanks! Be well, JW
Sat, 09/04/2010 - 05:56 | 563484 Troy Ounce
Troy Ounce's picture

Please,no hope anymore

I want to go to the bottom and start again.
I want to prosecute and jail the current crooks in charge
I want to have a new system which will restrain the politicians and bankers.

The steeper and deeper the fall, the more chance we have to purge the current system.

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 14:10 | 563784 rocker
rocker's picture

I want things too:     I Want My MONEY Back   from the bank thieves.

I want my bailout money back from Goldman Sachs that Hank Paulson, Neel Kishari, Lord Blankfein and George Bush stole from us taxpayers. Goldman was bankrupt and we paid for his 100 million dollar bonus. Criminal I say.

I want all the crooks who engineered the bailouts and fraud against us to go to jail.

I want the supreme court to reverse the decision to allow unlimited funds for campaign contributions. Now, even the Saudis can buy our elections. Nothing like having a government for and by the bankers and corporations of America.

Wow, I was dreaming again. Sorry.

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 17:29 | 563964 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Couldn't agree more - the salvation of Goldman Sachs had nothing to do with the American economy, and everything to do with preserving the wealth and power of the few, and exposed to plain sight that the system was crooked to the core, that the rule of law applies only to the many, not the few.  It was and continues to be one of many examples in the entire fall 2008 season of thievery, a travesty of just and fair play.

"He said that it is a mistake to expect too much of justice in this world. He said that the notion that evil seldom rewarded was greatly overspoken for if there were no advantage to it then men would shun it and how could virtue then be attached to its repudiation?"

 - The Crossing, Cormac McCarthy.

 

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 14:14 | 563775 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Exactly.

Purge and burn.

The clip from the progressive's propaganda outlet (PBS) is a big tipoff.

Do they send a year's supply of SOMA and rose colored glasses if you send in a contribution during those damn telethons?

"Surely, if we have polite conversations about hope and change that gorilla in the room won't smash the tea set and dash our hopes and brains on the berber and brocade!?"

Tear it down, tear it down!

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 10:46 | 563594 Everyman
Everyman's picture

Well Said Troy Ounce!   +1000

Gold is the way.

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 01:04 | 563430 hungrydweller
hungrydweller's picture

What gains!  Birth - Death bitchez!

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 01:51 | 563453 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

Can you imagine (I guess so) that not one of those economists discussed the birth/death model? 

How about that the headline results were not statistically significant? 

How about that after 1 year of recovery and trillion$ spent, all you get is 60k jobs in a manipulated government report?

 

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 08:08 | 563530 taraxias
taraxias's picture

How about we stop reading all the rubbish Leo posts?

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 12:02 | 563659 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

I was a bit offended by one of his posts last week, but I think this one was worth a read. We need alternative views and perspectives. 

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 10:31 | 563584 Snidley Whipsnae
Snidley Whipsnae's picture

I only read Leo's posts for the comments. "The soft patch for jobs may have been extended for a fourth month today"...

When does it stop being a soft patch and start being a crater?

Leo...I hope they are paying you well for your continued optimism while you're trudging into the economic shit storm.

Sat, 09/04/2010 - 09:31 | 563554 Hulk
Hulk's picture

You first! LOL. The comments alone are worth the price of admission..

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