Jobless Claims At 435K On Expectations Of 450K, To Be Revised Worse Next Week, As NSA Number Deteriorates By 28K

Initial jobless claims came in at 435K, a drop of 24K from the prior week's 459K, which of course was a downward revision from the past week's reported 457K. There have now been 36 downward revisions in 2010, and 6 upward ones. The weekly number, which is irrelevant until the following week's adverse reaction, is the lowest since the week of July 10. And while seasonally adjusted claims dropped by 24K, the NSA number increased by 28k to 449,905. Continuing Claims were 4,301K vs. expectations of 4,305K, while the previous number of 4,340K was naturally revised worse to 4,387K. This is the 42nd downward revision in 2010, out of 44. For a chart of 28 out of 29 upward revisions look below.

Elsewhere, those on Extended benefits and EUCs dropped by a total of 285K as the 99 week cliff starts to impact ever more unemployed.

Full report link.

Comments

[NOTW777]

no mention of revisions on the obama business channel

can we get a revisions ETF

[jus_lite_reading]

That "99 weeks" is upon us. 285k falling off the cliff, now. Armed guards. More "security" to keep the sheeple in line. This will end badly.

Breaking News: 56 MILLION Amerikans now without health insurance, up from 41 just 3 years ago.

Irish bonds get slaughtered, rumors of default imminent circulate. If I had money over there, I'd bail out now while I could...

[FEDbuster]

The stats that really mean something are ignored.  How many more "initial" jobless claims can there be when nearly 20% of the workforce is unemployed?  I would like to see the growth chart for the 99 weeks+ unemployed.

[umop episdn]

I don't have exactly what you want, but this might be useful:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/EMRATIO/

Civilian Employment-Population Ratio

[Bob]

Exactly.  At this point in the process, new claims is a metric whose utility is largely spent. 

The 99 week fall-off explains the reports of a friend who has been unable to get anyone to answer the phone at the Michigan UC agency for the past three weeks, in spite of literally a hundred attempts per day. 

[MilleniumJane]

"Exactly.  At this point in the process, new claims is a metric whose utility is largely spent."

I wish someone would explain that to the talking heads on my tv.  But they probably still wouldn't get it.  I think the media parameters for hiring these shit-for-brains relies on an inverse ratio of hotness to IQ.

Of course, I'm just preaching to the choir...

[docj]

Pretty-much spot-on.  From a logical basis, employers must eventually reach levels of layoffs beyond which they simply can't go and remain viable from a continuing operations standpoint.  Even if they don't think the going-forward business climate climate is going to be "all that".

Orgasmically cheering a 435K SA print, as CNBS was of course doing this morning, is so pathetic it's almost not mock-worthy anymore.

[Kina]

They should issue an estimate of the following week's downward revision at the same time. :)

What is the average downward revision. MSM should be taking that into account.

[FOC 1183]

year to date about 2,800 for initial and 32,000 for continuing which, over time, raises a question of where the 29,200 are coming from

[papaswamp]

3rd week in a row of NSA increase....not what one would expect with the holiday hiring supposedly occurring.

Job growth seems to be in Fed govt. according to Gallup:

"Federal government employees report a surge in hiring during October to +17, with 39% saying their employer was adding people and 22% saying it was letting people go. "

[bigdumbnugly]

This is the 42nd downward revision in 2010, out of 44.

doesn't the guy who does the revisions get two weeks vacation each year?  that prolly explains it.

[MilleniumJane]

LOL!

[Red Neck Repugnicant]

These numbers can only be seen as a victory for the Republicans.  After only a week since the election, they're already reducing unemployment.  

[firstdivision]

Skimming through the data, I am reassured that these "gains" have been nothing more than temp hiring for retail stores.  Those that added "jobs" were states that one would not expect to add such a high number.  For example, Ohio added 1300, while the state's main industries were laying off.  Additionally California added nearly 6400.  It is, in my opinion, nothing but temp hiring noise.  The tale tail sign is in the NSA numbers.  The NSA number had a nice jump in intial, and the drop from EUC was not too large but enough to start to cause some concern.

[Godot]

And who might benefit from all the initial understatments?

[jus_lite_reading]

_____________________________________________________________

So many variables culminating at once over the next few weeks/days that a World War is sure to be the outcome-

1. The infamous 99 weeks has arrived
2. EU periphery nations defaults imminent
3. US Social Security system insolvent
4. The 12 big banks are insolvent
5. Fraudclosure meltdown has only just begun
6. NASA dissident says unknown forces coming to earth
7. Social unrest is very high
8. Unemployment continues to rise
9. Antichrist is here
10. Iran/Israel may go to war
11. Global financial system on verge of collapse
12. False flags popping up on daily basis
13. The end of an socioeconomic supercycle has approached
14. The cumination of long waves arrives
15. Secular attacks on religion, religions crumbling
16. China building military power, now too powerful for comfort
17. Trade imbalances reach critical mass
18. G20 has ended before it started, disintegration, EMFH
19. Bank run to begin soon
20. FDIC insures accounts to infinity, FDIC in $40B deficit
21. etc etc etc, and so on and so forth

[the not so migh...]

do you have a link for #6?

[nedwardkelly]

here you go

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=66pTPWg_wUw

[the not so migh...]

thank ya

[jus_lite_reading]

I'm surprised you didn't ask for #9! LMAO!

[jus_lite_reading]

I'm surprised you didn't ask for #9! LMAO!

[firstdivision]

and #9, as I need to know who to hit up for a raise around here.

[MilleniumJane]

:)

[Spalding_Smailes]

1. The infamous 99 weeks has arrived.......................................What if they extend it.
2. EU periphery nations defaults imminent..................................What if they buy bonds/eu itself.
3. US Social Security system insolvent........................................As people die off they stop drawing, this can can be kicked.
4. The 12 big banks are insolvent...............................................Not if they change accounting rules/did.
5. Fraudclosure meltdown has only just begun..............................What if rich uncle steps in/he will.
6. NASA dissident says unknown forces coming to earth..................link ?
7. Social unrest is very high.........................................................really.
8. Unemployment continues to rise................................................true.
9. Antichrist is here......................................................................not good.
10. Iran/Israel may go to war...........................................................that area is a mess.
11. Global financial system on verge of collapse..................................this thing could go on for another 30-40 years.
12. False flags popping up on daily basis.............................................is this alex jones?
13. The end of an socioeconomic supercycle has approached...................link?
14. The cumination of long waves arrives.............................................martin you wacko is that you?
15. Secular attacks on religion, religions crumbling................................not good.
16. China building military power, now too powerful for comfort.......
17. Trade imbalances reach critical mass................................................america will force china to adjust.
18. G20 has ended before it started, disintegration, EMFH.........................jaw boning.
19. Bank run to begin soon....................................................................nope.
20. FDIC insures accounts to infinity, FDIC in $40B deficit..........................QE - 3 will fix this.
21. etc etc etc, and so on and so forth.............................................

[Spalding_Smailes]

• China is being forced to adjust ....      Michael Pettis: QE2 and the Titanic (MPettis)

[aheady]

Hooray for #15!

[wswarrior]

Again, I post the marketwatch post I came across because it rings so true.  Economics no longer matter when inkjet benny is lurking in the shadows....

We should all be honored to be witness to the many history making events that continue to occur in the US stock "market":

1. Most number of times something has been "priced in" (QE2)
2. Longest string of quarters with rigged "estimates"
3. Highest number of triple digit losses vanishing "in late trade"
4. Highest number of losses mitigated during final minute miracle "rallies"
5. The highest, criminally inflated average holdings of 401K plan
6. Longest string of weeks where a loss is limited to 1 day only
7. Longest string of weeks where a loss vanishes the next "trading" day
8. Fewest number of "trading" patterns
9. Greatest number of times the "market" has "strugged to recover" at 11AM
10.Highest percentage of times the "market" did not set a low at the close (100%)
11.Greatest number of days the "market" has "rallied" from deep in the red at the open
12.Fewest number of days the "market" has plunged at the open after opening green (0)

Feel free to add to the list, as the greatest FRAUD in history continues to financially rape Main Street, and continue the greatest redistribution of wealth the world will ever see."

[spongeBOB]

Maybe I missed it but why the report on Wed instead of Thur?

[firstdivision]

Becuase tomorrow is a holiday.

[spongeBOB]

Thanks

[TooBearish]

CNBS just reported claims at a 4 year low!

[99er]

Chart: SPX

Before the bell.

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2010/11/spx_10.html

http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts

[johngaltfla]

The NSA numbers are your leading indicator. It does not matter what Birth/Death creates nor how the BLS manipulates the temporary hires to look like permanent job creation. The reality is that more employers are starting to see the handwriting on the wall and the Wholesale Inventory report should have shaken some folks up and made them realize that we are heading into a nightmare Christmas retail season. The middle class does not have the will to participate as much as they would like.

[MilleniumJane]

I read on Drudge that Sears is going to be open on Thanksgiving for the first time in their 124 year history.  If that doesn't reek of desperation, I don't know what does.

http://www.suntimes.com/business/2877726,CST-NWS-SEARS09.article

[jory]

Does this mean I should buy gold?  Doesn't everything mean buy gold?  Gold is the most overbought, over-hyped investment in the universe.  Apmex advertising buy gold on my local newspaper website.  LOL!!!  Buy more gold Dummies.

[FEDbuster]

First you should buy long term storage food and lots of it.  Food will outperform gold, and you can "eat it".  Then you should buy some means of protecting the food you bought.  After taking care of those two items, then you should buy some gold.

[goldfish1]

BUY BUY BUY!

SELL SELL SELL!

-Al Czervik

[Village Idiot]

what will it be?  curtain #1...curtain #2...or...curtain #3?!

-Monty Hall

[sbenard]

Apparently, Wall Street didn't see this as terribly good news, since it dropped at the open. But never fear, POMO's soon here!

[sbenard]

For the benefit of someone who doesn't know all the acronyms and abbreviations, NSA = ?

[Hype Alert]

I think it's non-seasonally adjusted. 

[sbenard]

Thank you, thank you, thank you!

Did I remember to say thank you?

[Printfaster]

This graph pretty much sums it up:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?s[1][id]=EMRATIO

What you see is that the pool of firees is dwindling because there are fewer and fewer working.  What is a better metric is to measure the drop in unemployment applications as a percentage of those working.  Actually a better metric is the total number working, not the number of those applying for benefits.

Our employment participation ratio has us in Leave it to Beaver times where only one spouse is working.  Our current labor participation ratio was first achieved in 1954 and last seen in the 80s.  Today of course it is the woman who is working (labor equal opportunity laws favor women over men in all job positions), and the man who is unemployed.  A return to the single breadwinner.

[xanax]

I personally hope this continues.  It restores sanity to households trying to raise children, rather than forcing everyone into a 2-earner household rat-race where everyone is overstressed and undernurtured.

Plus, we just don't need as many people these days.  Computers and automation continue to replace the second earner.

[brian0918]

Tyler: You keep saying "downward" - I think you mean "upward".

[redpill]

We live in opposite world now, down is up and up is down.  Or per your icon, A is B and B is A ;)