Jobless Claims: 454,000 - Stagflation Baby (Confirmed By Durable Goods)

Tyler Durden's picture

Expectation of 405,000... Print: 454,000! Worst print in forever (well, October). The BLS calls it a "weather related backlog." Read - snow. Call it what it is - Stagflation, baby.

Non-seasonally adjusted number came at 482,399, as 161,913 people fell off extended benefits.

Continuing claims: 3,991K on expectations of 3,873K.

And just to complete the stagflationary picture, durable goods decreased by 2.5% on expectations of plus 1.5%, down from -0.1%. "This decrease, down four of the last five months, followed a 0.1 percent November decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 2.5 percent."

Note the level of deterioration: durables down from -0.1% to -2.5%, durables ex transportation to 0.5% from 4.5%; Orders non-defense ex aircraft: 1.4% from 3.1%... Bloodbath.

QE3 here we come!

The state by state breakdown is like the insider selling to buying ratio, only flipped, and very much made up.





State Supplied Comment




Fewer layoffs in the construction, service, and transportation




Fewer layoffs in the construction, trade, service, and manufacturing




Fewer layoffs in the construction, trade, service, food,
textile, furniture, rubber/plastics, and lumber/wood industries.




Fewer layoffs in the construction, service, and transportation




Fewer layoffs in the service industry.




No comment.




Fewer layoffs in the construction, service, and manufacturing




Fewer layoffs in the construction industry.




Fewer layoffs in the manufacturing industry.




Fewer layoffs in the trade, service, and manufacturing industries.




No comment.




No comment.




Fewer layoffs in the transportation and manufacturing industries.




No comment.




State offices were closed 1/14/2011, as well as fewer layoffs
in the manufacturing industry.




No comment.




Fewer layoffs in the automobile and trade industries.




Fewer layoffs in the construction, trade, service, and manufacturing




Fewer layoffs in the construction, trade, service, transportation,
warehousing, and manufacturing industries.




Fewer layoffs in the trade, service, and manufacturing industries.




No comment.




No comment.




No comment.




No comment.




No comment.




No comment.




No comment.




No comment.




No comment.




Fewer layoffs in the trade industry.




No comment.




No comment.





State Supplied Comment




Layoffs in the construction, trade, and service industries,
and agriculture.

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Commander Cody's picture

I'm sure its all good.  Rally on!

Handle with care's picture

QE3 to be priced in - DOW 15000 here we come

DaBernank's picture

Who cares if anyone has a job? ...S&P 1300, bitchez!!! Long NFLX, momo mofos rule!!! Buy the Egyptian dip!!!

RaymondKHessel's picture

Snow rocks ::: without ever leaving your house you can
a) file for unemployment online
b) watch netflix
c) order from amazon anything
d) buy silver and gold from APMEX
e) buy buy buy the SPX on etrade
need I go on ?

it all makes perfect sense

gookempucky's picture

Didnt mean to cut in front of everyone but if you would like to know about your states UE situation complements of ProPublica. Many are bankrupt.

smlbizman's picture

i see my state is well funded, last 3 years of umemployment rates go like this...57.00, 750.00, 1, we are not the kind that lays off....

cnbcsucks's picture


For the life of me...I've been a market junkie for 30 years.  Everything I THOUGHT I knew about how money and markets moved and what moved them is now officially out the window.

How can we have a downgrade of Japan's debt (not exactly an obscure economic power last time I looked) and some of the most abysmal economic data reported this morning and this market NOT be setting up to go over the cliff???  Absolutely unbelievable...


Eric The Red's picture

My thoughts exactly.  You and I are brothers by another mother.

hedgeless_horseman's picture

How can we have a downgrade of Japan's debt (not exactly an obscure economic power last time I looked) and some of the most abysmal economic data reported this morning and this market NOT be setting up to go over the cliff??? 

Clearly, you do not understand how the confidence part of a con works.

cnbcsucks's picture

Apparently, I still have a lot to learn...


Caviar Emptor's picture

You, I and many other long time market junkies have undergone the same transformation. It's the re-awakeing! Bring us into the light! :-)

It goes back to the absurdist posts from yesterday where someone else blurted out what I've been saying: "There IS NO Market!" Just like Neo in the Matrix learns from the Spoon Boy that "There is no spoon", we have learned that it's not the spoon thst bends or the market that moves, it's merely The Bernank that moves. The more we accept it, the more money we make (and later, the less we'll lose)

traderjoe's picture

An alternative interpretation of your quote is that, like you state, there is no market. Therefore, the market does not exist, and money does not exist. It is only you. 

Spoon boy: Do not try and bend the spoon. That's impossible. Instead... only try to realize the truth. 
Neo: What truth? 
Spoon boy: There is no spoon. 
Neo: There is no spoon? 
Spoon boy: Then you'll see, that it is not the spoon that bends, it is only yourself. 

Another quote:

"The Matrix is a system, Neo, and that system is our enemy. When you are inside, you look around, what do you see? Businessmen, teachers, lawyers, carpenters, the very minds we are trying to save. Until we do, these people are part of that system and that makes them our enemies. You have to understand that most of these people are not ready to be unplugged and many are so hopelessly dependent on the system, they will fight to protect it. The Matrix is everywhere. It is all around us. Even in this very room. You can see it when you look out your window or when you turn on your television. You can feel it when you go to work, when you go to church, when you pay your taxes. It is the world that has been pulled over your eyes to blind you from the truth."

Cathartes Aura's picture

good stuffs traderjoe. . . for those that resonate with the above realisations, a short vid that "illustrates" perfectly. . .

"The Story of Your Enslavement"

EscapeKey's picture

Ever increasing expectations of inflation.

CrashisOptimistic's picture

Experience observing a process has no value in understanding a completely different process.

This is not a market.  This is computers that react to inputs to their algorithms.  The algorithms weight claims 0 and durable goods 0.  Humans will not intervene in those algorithms.

Forget the market.  It has no further value to you.

sushi's picture

One of the reasons for invoking Rule 48 was to give time to install larger LCD panels. NFLX is heading for the moon and they need the larger display area to capture the jump. Where NFLX goes the rest of the market is sure to follow.

Michael's picture

Epic Fail.

Liesman looked like his dog died.

Hephasteus's picture

Unemployment cackles.... I'll kill you and your little dog tooo!!!

Eric The Red's picture

Another round of drinks in Davos!

Pez's picture

I would say construction is going way, way up, in the snow effected states as the homeless are now building igloos.

Ben Probanke's picture

it's due the snow of course

101 years and counting's picture

that is the excuse.  too funny.

isn't that why the numbers are seasonally fudged?

this is the first winter in history where snow has fallen more than once.


LMAO's picture

WTF....snow ?!

Shouldn't this mean, More people employed. . . .

Clearing roads, runways, railroads, deicing planes, etc.


NotApplicable's picture

It's the Great American Snowjob.

Pez's picture

Nope, All done by crews staffed 67% so that we can make bigger we can save the company in this economic downturn. Yeah that's it.

Ludwig Van's picture


Yahoo headline: Requests for unemployment benefits up due to snow

Blame the bad weather on Waddell & Reed


NOTW777's picture

yahoo - part of the obama news network w/ AP, Reuters & Bloomberg

whatz that smell's picture

Requests for unemployment benefits up due to snow...


HFT parse headline: (Requests for un)employment (benefits)up  (due to)snow.   

weighting: (.00000001(employment) + .0000001(up)) + 666666(snow) = DOW 36,000



midtowng's picture

The numbers actually aren't that bad. This one of those extremely rare instances when the seasonal adjustment significantly increased the number. I think it only happens in January. The non-seasonally adjusted number wasn't that bad.

papaswamp's picture

Durable goods missed big time too..... -2.5% vs expectations of +1.5%

Cheesy Bastard's picture

And check out this Yahoo headline:

Durable goods orders outside of aircraft post gain

HoofHearted's picture

Just wait for the revision next week! This is what they are admitting.

The Talmud Kid's picture

steve LIESman says it due to the snow.

Nothing to worry about.

Should be good for AMZN, no?


scratch_and_sniff's picture

WTF, where's Sputnik?

Hephasteus's picture

Green shoots eazing 2.0 expectations management class.

"His name is, uh... Richard Starkey. From Maine. He has a saying. 'Things are getting better, getting better all the time.' "


Vacca's picture

I doubt there will be any postmen left after the dust settles.

HelluvaEngineer's picture

The Sputnik moment has been delayed.  We've decided to have a Tiananmen Square moment first.

assumptionblindness's picture


Judging by the size of the drop over the last couple of days that blizzard must have been a real doozy!

Pez's picture

Remember they're looking at "snowfall futures". So expect what ever excuse is needed at the moment.

NOTW777's picture

look @ durable #s

fraud is leaking

youngman's picture

And then look at the Baltic dry index......hmmm....things are slowing least internationally....but Cat and Deere will be doing well as the world constructs......not the western world.....