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Jobless Claims: 454,000 - Stagflation Baby (Confirmed By Durable Goods)
Expectation of 405,000... Print: 454,000! Worst print in forever (well, October). The BLS calls it a "weather related backlog." Read - snow. Call it what it is - Stagflation, baby.
Non-seasonally adjusted number came at 482,399, as 161,913 people fell off extended benefits.
Continuing claims: 3,991K on expectations of 3,873K.
And just to complete the stagflationary picture, durable goods decreased by 2.5% on expectations of plus 1.5%, down from -0.1%. "This decrease, down four of the last five months, followed a 0.1 percent November decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 0.5 percent. Excluding defense, new orders decreased 2.5 percent."
Note the level of deterioration: durables down from -0.1% to -2.5%, durables ex transportation to 0.5% from 4.5%; Orders non-defense ex aircraft: 1.4% from 3.1%... Bloodbath.
QE3 here we come!
The state by state breakdown is like the insider selling to buying ratio, only flipped, and very much made up.
STATES WITH A DECREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000 (unadjusted)
|
State |
Change |
|
State Supplied Comment |
|
NY |
-28,714 |
|
Fewer layoffs in the construction, service, and transportation |
|
GA |
-19,429 |
|
Fewer layoffs in the construction, trade, service, and manufacturing |
|
NC |
-16,132 |
|
Fewer layoffs in the construction, trade, service, food, |
|
PA |
-14,859 |
|
Fewer layoffs in the construction, service, and transportation |
|
CA |
-14,309 |
|
Fewer layoffs in the service industry. |
|
IL |
-10,155 |
|
No comment. |
|
AL |
-9,550 |
|
Fewer layoffs in the construction, service, and manufacturing |
|
MI |
-9,464 |
|
Fewer layoffs in the construction industry. |
|
SC |
-7,318 |
|
Fewer layoffs in the manufacturing industry. |
|
TX |
-7,190 |
|
Fewer layoffs in the trade, service, and manufacturing industries. |
|
OH |
-6,776 |
|
No comment. |
|
WI |
-6,640 |
|
No comment. |
|
CT |
-6,545 |
|
Fewer layoffs in the transportation and manufacturing industries. |
|
WA |
-6,228 |
|
No comment. |
|
VA |
-6,107 |
|
State offices were closed 1/14/2011, as well as fewer layoffs |
|
MO |
-5,871 |
|
No comment. |
|
IN |
-5,608 |
|
Fewer layoffs in the automobile and trade industries. |
|
MA |
-5,317 |
|
Fewer layoffs in the construction, trade, service, and manufacturing |
|
NJ |
-4,579 |
|
Fewer layoffs in the construction, trade, service, transportation, |
|
TN |
-4,576 |
|
Fewer layoffs in the trade, service, and manufacturing industries. |
|
KS |
-4,541 |
|
No comment. |
|
KY |
-3,218 |
|
No comment. |
|
MN |
-3,054 |
|
No comment. |
|
MD |
-2,957 |
|
No comment. |
|
OR |
-2,203 |
|
No comment. |
|
CO |
-1,733 |
|
No comment. |
|
MS |
-1,728 |
|
No comment. |
|
LA |
-1,504 |
|
No comment. |
|
AZ |
-1,328 |
|
No comment. |
|
AR |
-1,266 |
|
Fewer layoffs in the trade industry. |
|
MT |
-1,206 |
|
No comment. |
|
UT |
-1,017 |
|
No comment. |
STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000
|
State |
Change |
|
State Supplied Comment |
|
FL |
+6,646 |
|
Layoffs in the construction, trade, and service industries, |
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I'm sure its all good. Rally on!
QE3 to be priced in - DOW 15000 here we come
Who cares if anyone has a job? ...S&P 1300, bitchez!!! Long NFLX, momo mofos rule!!! Buy the Egyptian dip!!!
SNOWFLATION, bitchezz
Snow rocks ::: without ever leaving your house you can
a) file for unemployment online
b) watch netflix
c) order from amazon anything
d) buy silver and gold from APMEX
e) buy buy buy the SPX on etrade
....
need I go on ?
it all makes perfect sense
Didnt mean to cut in front of everyone but if you would like to know about your states UE situation complements of ProPublica. Many are bankrupt.
http://projects.propublica.org/unemployment/
i see my state is well funded, md...my last 3 years of umemployment rates go like this...57.00, 750.00, 1,350.00.....no we are not the kind that lays off....
and the futures yawn
Exactly...
For the life of me...I've been a market junkie for 30 years. Everything I THOUGHT I knew about how money and markets moved and what moved them is now officially out the window.
How can we have a downgrade of Japan's debt (not exactly an obscure economic power last time I looked) and some of the most abysmal economic data reported this morning and this market NOT be setting up to go over the cliff??? Absolutely unbelievable...
My thoughts exactly. You and I are brothers by another mother.
Clearly, you do not understand how the confidence part of a con works.
Apparently, I still have a lot to learn...
You, I and many other long time market junkies have undergone the same transformation. It's the re-awakeing! Bring us into the light! :-)
It goes back to the absurdist posts from yesterday where someone else blurted out what I've been saying: "There IS NO Market!" Just like Neo in the Matrix learns from the Spoon Boy that "There is no spoon", we have learned that it's not the spoon thst bends or the market that moves, it's merely The Bernank that moves. The more we accept it, the more money we make (and later, the less we'll lose)
An alternative interpretation of your quote is that, like you state, there is no market. Therefore, the market does not exist, and money does not exist. It is only you.
Spoon boy: Do not try and bend the spoon. That's impossible. Instead... only try to realize the truth.
Neo: What truth?
Spoon boy: There is no spoon.
Neo: There is no spoon?
Spoon boy: Then you'll see, that it is not the spoon that bends, it is only yourself.
Another quote:
"The Matrix is a system, Neo, and that system is our enemy. When you are inside, you look around, what do you see? Businessmen, teachers, lawyers, carpenters, the very minds we are trying to save. Until we do, these people are part of that system and that makes them our enemies. You have to understand that most of these people are not ready to be unplugged and many are so hopelessly dependent on the system, they will fight to protect it. The Matrix is everywhere. It is all around us. Even in this very room. You can see it when you look out your window or when you turn on your television. You can feel it when you go to work, when you go to church, when you pay your taxes. It is the world that has been pulled over your eyes to blind you from the truth."
good stuffs traderjoe. . . for those that resonate with the above realisations, a short vid that "illustrates" perfectly. . .
"The Story of Your Enslavement"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xbp6umQT58A
Ever increasing expectations of inflation.
Experience observing a process has no value in understanding a completely different process.
This is not a market. This is computers that react to inputs to their algorithms. The algorithms weight claims 0 and durable goods 0. Humans will not intervene in those algorithms.
Forget the market. It has no further value to you.
What, no NFLX?
One of the reasons for invoking Rule 48 was to give time to install larger LCD panels. NFLX is heading for the moon and they need the larger display area to capture the jump. Where NFLX goes the rest of the market is sure to follow.
Epic Fail.
Liesman looked like his dog died.
Unemployment cackles.... I'll kill you and your little dog tooo!!!
Another round of drinks in Davos!
+ 1 Dirty Martini
I would say construction is going way, way up, in the snow effected states as the homeless are now building igloos.
+1
it's due the snow of course
that is the excuse. too funny.
isn't that why the numbers are seasonally fudged?
this is the first winter in history where snow has fallen more than once.
WTF....snow ?!
Shouldn't this mean, More people employed. . . .
Clearing roads, runways, railroads, deicing planes, etc.
LMAO
It's the Great American Snowjob.
Nope, All done by crews staffed 67% so that we can make bigger prof.....er..um ....so we can save the company in this economic downturn. Yeah that's it.
White. Powdery. Yep "snow."
Yahoo headline: Requests for unemployment benefits up due to snow
Blame the bad weather on Waddell & Reed
yahoo - part of the obama news network w/ AP, Reuters & Bloomberg
Requests for unemployment benefits up due to snow...
.........
HFT parse headline: (Requests for un)employment (benefits)up (due to)snow.
weighting: (.00000001(employment) + .0000001(up)) + 666666(snow) = DOW 36,000
..........
The numbers actually aren't that bad. This one of those extremely rare instances when the seasonal adjustment significantly increased the number. I think it only happens in January. The non-seasonally adjusted number wasn't that bad.
Durable goods missed big time too..... -2.5% vs expectations of +1.5%
And check out this Yahoo headline:
Durable goods orders outside of aircraft post gainhttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/Durable-goods-orders-outside-apf-3695705607.html?x=0
Just wait for the revision next week! This is what they are admitting.
steve LIESman says it due to the snow.
Nothing to worry about.
Should be good for AMZN, no?
WTF, where's Sputnik?
Green shoots eazing 2.0 expectations management class.
"His name is, uh... Richard Starkey. From Maine. He has a saying. 'Things are getting better, getting better all the time.' "
I doubt there will be any postmen left after the dust settles.
The Sputnik moment has been delayed. We've decided to have a Tiananmen Square moment first.
Too funny!!!
YES!!
snowing in egypt?
+1000
Judging by the size of the drop over the last couple of days that blizzard must have been a real doozy!
Remember they're looking at "snowfall futures". So expect what ever excuse is needed at the moment.
look @ durable #s
fraud is leaking
And then look at the Baltic dry index......hmmm....things are slowing down....at least internationally....but Cat and Deere will be doing well as the world constructs......not the western world.....
I can't wait for the spin of how this is positive from Mainstream Media.
let's have a contest to see who can dig up the best spin piece in the MSM
I've noticed that when it is too bad to spin, they just write a boring article full of numbers and economic terms most people gloss over at.
Or then again there is always CNBC: "Snow Pushes Claims Higher in Setback for Jobs Market"
DAMN YOU SNOW!!!!!
that claim is a snow job!!!
@Jon Nadler:
Sounds pretty good, all we have to do is Troll the Trolls.
How Fitting !!!
I'll grab some of the B.S. they print at MarketWatch.
Marketwatch, ha ha, is Americapatriot and Newbegold still there? Suuuuper trolls
How do you get the market to ramp just before the close? You have Mr Softy release JUST before the close and watch the price spike. Easy-greasy.
lets hear it for the recovery - ben? obama? MSM?
QE3 wanted $ 1 trillion asap
David99 Says:
Don't worry, Banana Ben already has the QE3 machine fully primed and ready for immediate deployment ... but why stop at $1 trillion?
Please don't tell the Bernank or Obeyme what comes after a trillion.
Print it baby, take it to the moon!
Send em the Obama bucks
spin has started..
#US Labor Department says four states reported big increases in claims due to snow
realy,?? in case of snow IT SHOLD HAVE BEEN better.. less people applied for ... no way around..
alx
Must be all the laid-off lifeguards who filed online.
Hilarious. What jobs during the winter lay people off because of snow? Is snow not expected this time of year?
Think of all that grass that suddenly couldn't get cut, shubs that couldn't be trimmed, lemonaid that went without buyers (poor kids) . . .
Yep, during the week there were massive layoffs of lifeguards, lawncare workers, and house painters.
Full steam ahead Benny! Printing Presses into overdrive mode!
This can't be true...can it? SOTU said everything was fine - economy growing, people going back to work, etc.
I refuse to believe it. Now back to my idiot box.
Farmer Jim says you can get a flower to bloom on a turd, but all it'll ever be is a TurdBlossom
Jobs don't matter anymore when you have a welfare system which is backed by a free-money printing press with no constraints such as debt-ceilings which don't get increased on a whim.
If no one had a job, The Bernank would just carry on printing long and hard and all will be well.
These are the new rules. Slaves you will all become to The Bernank's printing press.
nice Bill Hicks avatar
nothing moves the market down, cause NY FED has your back, bid them up SACK has his buy orders in on IBM CAT and every DOW stock that shows any buyers...
BTFStagflation
Bank local, reduce - better yet eliminate debt, stop watching the boob tube.
And was the prior figure revised higher or lower? Go on Tyler, surprise me.
To answer my own question, the prior figure was (To the surprise of absolutely no-one) revised higher from 404k to 413k.
And I believe the 404k figure was used to justify a stock market rally. Just like yesterday's new home sales that were skyrocketing and at the same time the lowest in 47 years. Lies, damn lies, etc.......
Indeed. Given the huge disconnect between the initial figures and subsequent revisions, I don't know why the BLS don't just make up whatever numbers they feel are necessary to provoke the market reaction they desire and then revise them later when nobody's looking. Oh, wait....
Well, if that is how big a miss they are admitting to and the revision a few weeks later is downwards, imagine how bad the situation really is.
Right after the state of the break-up address too!
Americka....rock...hardship place. And so all of us get to suffer the same fate. India is hog-tied to the dollear!
ORI
http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com/2011/01/26/a-ha-ahahaha/
So, CNBC tells us that snow kept workers at home, hence the spike in filings. Wouldn't snow keep the unemployed from getting to the UE Claim office to file? Can't wait to see the upward revision on this one.....
That is kind of what I was thinking, too. How did they file?
They have measured 19 inches in Central Park for this latest snowstorm. I would say that there is 10 - 12 inches of accumulation in most areas. The temperature is right around freezing right now. It will hit about 36 in Manhattan.
I hope this doesn't do anything to stop the Netflix rally. It is great that we can build our economy on a company that mails out and streams crappy TV and movie content. Give me more of those "Little Fockers". Who needs to make anything? I wish they would complete the transformation of the Meat Packing District to boutiques and "luxury" condos.
Luxury condos for everybody, bitchez.
People sitting at home with nothing to do. What to do? What to do?
Lets apply for unemployment on line.
And how often is weather blamed when retail sales come in below expectations. So, when it snows, people stay home and don't shop. But, when it snows, everyone gets in their car and goes to the unemployment office.
Exactly.
You know, it's amazing how much clearer things become when you finally realize that the basis for most information the guvmint puts out is fraud.
egads!
looks like we got the sputter-nik moment instead.
Not sure what the problem is. 405k expected, 454k returned, only 12% adrift in their forecasts...
(sarcasm off)
DavidC
+ $209.00 (the price of a NFLX share right now, pre-market)
@DavidC
sure.,. no problemo.. jsut 10% off.. CBO screwed really big way recently
2011 budget deficit was 1 trln$, now it 1.5$ trln official.. forecast
alx
ps
sarcasm is on
The numbers are looking quite dire
But Cramer says stocks will surge higher
Should I just buy the dip
Or a gun with a clip
Adios frying-pan....hello fire.
What, you can't have both?
Buy the f-cking dip and buy the f-cking clip.
Are you suggesting BTFDABTFCYFI...?
Dude, you are my hero. Keep those limericks coming.
BTFDYFI's
NON DEFENSE CAPITAL GOODS -6.3%!!
the benank KNOWS we have a bullshit
economy. Wonder what the forecast
is in his locked drawer? 1% GDP
with structural unemployment?
2005 - "The new guy can't be any worse than Greenspan."
2008 - "The new guy can't be any worse than Bush."
Anybody looking forward to the next round of sociopaths that get moved into these positions?
Just wait. We are letting go of 2 people out of 5 who have worked 7 and 17 years respectivly at the end of Febuary.The company has been going for 24 years so far.Just hunkering down to try and ride out the storm.
I firmly believe everyone who supports the kenyan muslim communist and the demokratik soviet should be fired from private business and industry.
did it really snow 4 of the last 5 months?
Damn
O' course there's more unemployed. Who d'ya think is on the couch watching all those Netflix?
You have to have something to watch while you box the clown.
We don't need jobs in this new POMO economy.
Doesnt look good for Mubarak....
the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood -- the main opposition group, which has so far refrained from officially endorsing the demonstrations -- has called on its members to turn out on the streets in large numbers and join the protests after tomorrow's Friday Prayers. Washington appears to be aling9ing with the protestors – Clinton said "We believe strongly that the Egyptian government has an important opportunity at this moment in time to implement political, economic and social reforms to respond to the legitimate needs and interests of the Egyptian people," she said. No reported Egyptian police on Jan. 27 fired rubber bullets, a water cannon and tear gas at hundreds of protestors in Suez as ElBaradei Offers To Oversee Interim Government whos says Mubarak should retire - STRATFOR/RFERL
Pray then riot. Nice
Mubarak is a douche who deserves whatever he gets. Bad Karma dude.
The US State Dept. (Read Obama) praised the overthrow of the Tunisian Dictator too. What is the common thread? Who is going to replace these secular dictators in Tunisia and Egypt? Anyone, Anyone? Buehler?
A man came from Princeton named Bernanke
who though he could run a big bankie,
He twiddled one thumb
stuck one up his ass just for fun,
and made money with the wave of a hankie!
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41290946
Bad news is always due to an exogenous force.
BOMBSHELL REPORT: Goldman Sachs Got Billions From Taxpayers Thru AIG For Its OWN Account, Crisis Panel Finds; Contradicting SWORN Testimony From Execs
http://dailybail.com/home/bombshell-report-goldman-sachs-got-billions-from-taxpayers-t.html
.
Bombshell indeed.
By bombshell you mean non event right?
Personally, I think you are a lot better off looking at Total Employed in the Private sector.
And while that number is updated only once a month, it is headed higher and has been since Jan 2010.
How many of these new unemployed are government workers? I'm not going to use the fact that they are losing their jobs as a negative indicator.
It's official
http://finance.yahoo.com/
REITs are up...
Fewer layoffs in the snow plowing, snow shoveling, and snow blowing industries.
FUNPLOYMENT FTW!!!!!
Wow!! Lucky for us the bernank has
rigged the markets.
Oh sure, these ridiculous PEs are justified. Lucky for us the Bernank has assured us the next crash is above the horizon. Thanks for the telegraph, Bernank.
This all but assures a Dow 12k close
UNEMPLOYED PEOPLE NEED TO BE ERASED FORM THE STATISTICS MUCH FASTER!!!
CTRL-A
DELETE!!
ok Harry Wanker how are you going to spin this one?
I sure hope this continues to drive gold and silver down. I want to do more long-term purchases at lower prices. Seriously!
As the markets will have no reaction,
Wanker will just tell you good times
are around the corner.
Like Lucy and Ethel trying to wrap chocalate candies on the assembly line, Harry is probably helping out his workers at his wildly successful Company.
No time to see the bad stats.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wp3m1vg06Q
Futures have barely budged. The
greatest fraud of all times continues
courtesy of the bernank.
this is one is great
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week as harsh weather conditions in some parts of the country kept workers at home and caused a backlog in the processing of claims, a government report showed on Thursday.
guess they were all seeking shelter at the claims office.
Jesus. That Reuters report makes absolutely no sense. The logic is nonexistent. It's like someone said: Well, gotta put lipstick on this pig somehow. Let's baffle them wiht bullshit."
When they say workers who do they mean? If you are unemployed then you aren't "a worker" and I have a hard time believing it takes more than 1 govt drone to turn on the computer to file the claims - forget I said that it probably takes 100....
Jobless claims unexpectly rises because of weather related backlog
Brittish GDP unexpectly falls because of cold weather
It's all about the weather. It will be alright on summer, no worries...:)
that's a snow job
even in Egypt the rioting is because of the snow
No, the economies of the great nations will still suck this summer, due of course to
Wait...
for...
it...
EXCESSIVE HEAT!
The great thing is when everything sucks this Summer we will be able to blame it on the heat
This is excellent news!
DOW 250,000!!! Gold? Whats that?
Fucking surreal...
Snow? I thought you file for benefits over the phone or online, and they transfer $$$ to the prepaid debit card. So, no trips to the office to file, and no postal delays to get the check! WTF the snow has to do with the number?
Hey no arguing with the ministry of disinformation - penalty is lobotomy by spoon.
How can someone honest claim that snow impacts layoffs? You have to be seriously insane and retarded to claim this.
Retail sales, ok, I could understand snow has impact, but unemployment claims?
Honest to goodness no lie, CNBS reports:
"high UE could be due to snow!"
You guys are too negative!!
People go to claim cause they knew this week weather will be bad!!
More people retired early!
more people in graduate school and MBA programs!
hehe. BTFD!!
But, but, but... Obama is positive on America's future!
Lies, damned lies and Obama
Fuck you too Timmah
Durable goods represents # from Dec while the jobless represents # from last week.
Not that strong of a correlation. If any, just a postulation.
A Labor Department official said snow in four southern
states in previous weeks created a backlog of claims that were
processed last week. While the economy has improved, it hasn’t
been enough to reduce an unemployment rate that Federal Reserve
policy makers said yesterday is too high and requires pressing
ahead with a $600 billion stimulus plan.
someone actually got it right, snow delayed people from filing so these workers were really laid off in prior weeks and just didn't make it to file until now.
Nope you are too negative because you think too much. think way too logical..
ignore all your math.. they won't work. Just close your eyes and BTFD!!
Yeah most newly fired people are so well off they usually wait weeks to file - yep it's true
It's all very clear guys; the snow caused people to stay at home and sign up for NFLX! BTFN(etflix)!
Hey Tyler, didn't we have this same fucking snow excuse early 2010 for something? Deja vu
Bingo!