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Jobless Claims Come At 472K On Expectations Of 475K, Previous At 473K, Non Farm Productivity Misses Expectations
Jobless claims are unchanged from last week, and come in line with expectations. Continuing claims came higher than expectations at 4,456K on expectations of 4,450K, with the previous print revised higher to 4,479K. Non-farm productivity much worse than expected, at -1.8% on expectations of 1.9, previously coming at -0.9%. Labor costs come at 1.1%, on expectations of 1.2%, a notable increase from the previous read of 0.2%. Knee jerk reactions by the market all around.
It appears the catch up in extended claims and EUC has finally arrived, as both numbers dropped a combined 340k in the week ended August 1, as the roll off from extended benefits once again takes precedence over the recent reactivation of the 99-week max by the administration.
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Listening to Bloomberg radio and they were saying that Jobless claims beat estimates, but even on their site they say consensus is 470K. The actual number was 472K (which is an awesome number, rally on folks). This number still shows that our economy is broken big time.
"...the previous print revised higher..."
do tell.
Maya Bhandari on India's Reserve Bank of Stagflation
Just wait, in a few months time, these initial claims will be well over 700,000 as the real economy is deteriorating rapidly.
Looking forward to adding 535 (or so) more jobless claims on November 4th of this year.
Help-wanted ads placed online by U.S. employers are leveling off modestly after a string of sharp increases earlier this year. The Monster employment index decreased by 2 points from July to August, as recruiting declined in a majority of the 20 industries tracked by the index - a reasonable expectation for a decrease in August - if this were a more normal economic cycle, however, we are in a recovery - I mean that is what CNBC Quack box says....
"if this were a more normal economic cycle"
exactly, this isn't your daddy's oldsmobile... this is one global clusterfuck that can only end badly...
Yeehaw!! Prepare for SP 1200!!!
PTL (blankfein)!!!!
I work at one of the worlds premier health care systems and we just went a hiring freeze about a week ago. Only hiring for nurses, doctors, and essential office staff.
So you froze the hiring of what, janitors?
Analysts, Directors, Accountants, etc. The organization I work at employs 70k. In the Finance Dept. we are working with less than we actually need.
By essential, I mean we absolutely need someone to fill that position.
I can indicate the same with my organization - we are a diverse global mfg company - we are working with far too few people in the finance/analyst role(s) - moreover, we shutdown several of our mfg facilities due to part shortages - vendors are having difficulties financing their operations - the supply chain has experienced a number of 'shortages' due to vendor's inability to ship - the rumors that are prevalent is that most vendors are unable to fund their operations - pay late & therefore are put on 'ship hold' until they pay their respective counter-party -
but your productivity is thru the roof!! so what that the AR is 90 days and going longer..the banks will carry us with loans..or not.
have not seen those ads for buying your AR accounts lately have you?
Well, here we go again. A market that continues to grind higher on the face of poor / bad data. We've had 90 days of shit data. This is unreal but now the norm. Non-existent retail investment and we move higher on bad news. We are truly living in an episode of The Twillight Zone.
'Market grinding higher' is just an illusion really. So what, DOW is at 10,200, about where it was 8 months ago? Who the hell cares, just say no.
say "nope to do(w)pe" and "ugh to thugs"...
And as the bond market clearly calls the bluff too!
all the bad news is priced in ala bloomberg.
seems nothing worse can happen as everything that could go wrong has
black swans have been bleached to white so they ain't so bad now are they. party on wall street.
Forget the swans, all we have now are corpses and vultures.
What, productivity down? Lazy bastards...
Time to jack up food and energy prices. That will make work a little harder.
Tinkerers tinkering, planting more base charges while they say 'nothing to see here, move along'.
errr I think expectations were for -1.9% not +1.9%
http://mam.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=442502&cust=mam&year=201...
To be revised next month. Got to push the market past 1100 and capture a few more suckers on a wacky wave count - keep the herd confused. Will be interesting to see how the back-to-school boost (read isolated event not sustained) and still-bad-but-better-than-worse data is spun by the SKynet algos. Thinking it is a simple binary approach of up-strong on reported beat or nuetral with upward bias on anything else (e.g. dropping prices just means computers were turned off - LOL).
"dropping prices just means computers were turned off"
exactly what happened during the flash crash, it was one massive gang-bang withdrawal...
Where are you getting the expectation of plus 1.9 on productivity? I see -1.9 expected productivity and -470k jobs from econoday
Numbers schmumbers.
It is definitely not getting better is it? How will administration try to put a spin on this? Down, down we go, where it stops nobody knows.
Nothin like a good o'l War , to get things movin again.
this # comes after trillions spent in "stimulus" there is no job growth as far as the eye can see
"summer of recovery"
less mules and more tractors
Tyler, I see on bloomberg that the consensus for non-farm productivity was -1.9%
Extend unemployment benefits to age 62 and take away all our pain........
How about making it harder to not hire(for non-temporary types of work), especially with the long-term unemployed?
Give the unemployed the choice this time, not the other way around.
How bou't the Government get the hell out of the way. Until the good ol'e USofA starts pukin black smoke out of Pittsburg, and we actually start producing some shit over here there ain't a damn thing gonna change.
The UE numbers aren't bad if you look at the NSA numbers...378,511...lowest in a long time. I can't tell wether the level has been reached and thus not much more layoff are needed (no new hiring either).
You mean theres basically no one left to fire, so rock on economy?
Exactly. The labor cost vs productivity is worrisome though. Could signal an uptick in layoffs coming.
the NSA is useless... and i only say that bc I know how the SA is calculated: rolling 4 week avg yoy% change, indexed since the data started (done the math 100x). That being said, the 4 week average on a yoy% change is going to rise, just like the productivity data would suggest... and we know they revise up :o)
"the N_S_A is worthless". Dude, you are going to get yourself disappeared with posting flags like that. That noise you didnt hear before the bag is forced over your head was the helicopters from fort meade.
do the math. CNBC is talking the NSA- so excuse me... and i am going to get disappeared for seasonaly adjusting data and being bearish as fuck on the job market on ZH... lol ... maybe we should skip the CFTC and exchanges, and let me sell you something like an MBS or two...I can sell you all your ignorance if needed
*cringe* you did it again. Fort Meade is coming for you. you cant really hide so dont bother.
He doesn't get it, but that is to be expected. The tiger is the smarter of the two.
we get a 500k print the other day and ever since anything under 500k is wonderful news
car sales in August lowest in 27 years..seems them UE people just won't spend..ben give each UE person a new car I know you would love to it is only fair.
Hey thats right! They played another fast one one us! GM sales drop of 26% was dutifully cntrl alt del'd by CNBC yesterday during the miracle pump! And now, for some really good news...Lower Manhattan washed off the face of the earth by a hurricane. AH if we could only be so lucky.
they already paid for it through taxpayers money when the gov. pumped money into GM, Ford, Toyota... so why not!
OH! Its already 'priced in'? Right, forgot about that...
BTW brainiac, Ford got no bailout.
Cash for Clunkers benefited all auto makers, including Ford. They didn't get a direct "bailout" like GM and Chrysler.
Cash fer Clunkers actually benefitted no one, I have a friend who's family owns a dealership, they got STIFFED on most cash fer klunker deals and still trying to get the Gubmint to pay them!
The automaker does not own the dealership.
The automaker sold its inventory to the dealership.
The dealership got shafted, not the automaker.
A cadillac in every garage is the kind of stimulus we need. Helps us, helps GM,nobody gets hurt.
Don't forget to include the middle class in this effort as the poor and the rich already have them.
Free blinged out Escalades in every garage! The more things change, the more they stay the same. And that icky old school '40s depression only got us a lousy chicken in a pot.
Can I have a roll of Golden Eagles instead?
Nobody gets hurt, eh? Our children can say that their Daddy's Oldsmobile is a Government car.
It's funny how "think of the children" goes out the window when it suits our Government. Our kids are the ones getting stuck with the tab.
Our kids are the ones getting stuck with the tab.
Upon which they will 'politely default'.
Bam_Man, next generation nothin! Im already refusing to pay them any of the $110,000 per US taxpayer to pump the market bullshit! They WONT get a dime from me, I'll shoot it out to the death with them before that! The line has been crossed!
Put me into slavery so some billionaires can get their fat bonuses? NA I'll die first!
My 20 year old BMW is still a better car to drive, take trips and maintain than anything Detroit has produced in a long time. Keep the caddy and give me the convertible cash (to PM at least).
The elite screw themselves in ways that they never dream. They screw us too but that was not the point!
Shocked that claims number revised upward from last weeks rally number of 472K to 478K.
Non-Farm Productivity falls by the most in 4 years, and first negative number since the last quarter of 2008.
But in the world we inhabit bad numbers are a victory for the bulls as they wait, with breath that is baited, for the government (assume that includes the fed), to ride to the rescue with whatever program, that is currently going to give the illusion of saving us (and by us i mean the democrats from mid-term election embarrassment).
Because in this bizarre world:goverment is the answer.
last week -473K
this week -472K
spice it up...........does -478K to -472K sound any better?
Expect the ISM to get a revision as well
Well, just hear Cashin's comments, he's leaning toward pvt payrolls coming close to ADP estimates
revision or not, we know where it is headed... orders sucked donkey balls and as the only LEI of the PMI it is following the ECRI perfectly...
Yea Lizzy that seems to be the plan, somehow. But I dont see how they save us from the doom, when theyre saying its all good and the markets are magically rising! Dont they need something, like a market CRASH, in order to first cause the required sheeple panic, then produce the ensuing 'we saved you sheeple' moment?
I remember a article for the 90's where all Americans dreamed of working a 4 day workweek and 5 hours a day of working.
This was then a Utopy, and now reality.
And now that they got that, THEY THINK IT'S A BAD THING!
Go figure....
'All americans dreamed of a 4 day work week'...
Nice generalization with absolutely no basis in any fact, arms swinging enraged turd.
Yeah, but wasn't a gallon of milk around 1.25, gas .99, rent $300 a month?
Yep bada boom, but I'm sure thats all been 'priced in' or something.
You remember 1 article from the 90's? Wow thats a fuking brilliant and highly relevant post man.
The truest gage, IMHO, is the unemployment insurance (*rate*) that I must pay for my employees. Since this is a forward looking (all insurance paid for future-not arrears), gives me a pretty good handle of what their number crunchers have determined future unemployment rate to be. In the last ten years, they have been very accurate.
OK. So whats your 'truest gage' showing you.
Basically, not good and not fair. I consider it to be one of those "hidden taxes" that the MSM just doesn't talk about that is affecting small businesses. My rate (calculated on anniversary date and not fiscal year end or calendar year end) just went up 11.6%. The previous high was 2008 (my fiscal year) at 4.3%. This is a huge burden and complete shock. It translates to just shy of 20% unemployment rate (for the entire year) regardless if QE or some other BS actually brings people back to work.
State unemployment funds around the country have been propped up by the Feds. More taxes should be expected.
Inflation -> taxes, health care, food, energy, tuition
Deflation -> wages, house prices, consumer discretionary
I guess its hard to calculate insurance into an economic collapse and default, TideFighter!
My unemployment insurance rose about the same. Hmm....
Im getting fidgety looking at this post.......please correct the data here to reflect the numbers
-1.9% expected
-1.8% actual
-1.8% is bad enough
Ahhhh, I love the smell of economic recovery in the morning...
actually last week's number revised up to 478k..plus NSA and SA dont reflect the same difference from last year's numbers..versus same period last year one is -80k, the other one is -98k...??SA should be 490k for this week..oh probably will be revised higher next week anyways..
The Root Cause of continued deterioration in all areas of business is lack of trust. When corruption underlays all institutions there is no reliability of information, hence there is paralyzation of activity.
Then by all means break it by force.
Sigh. Seems I'm still stuck in Bizzaro World. I suppose waiting for the arrival of this guy...
http://www.ugo.com/movies/oj-simpsons-criminal-masterminds-evil-bomber
... to shake things up a bit is not getting me anywhere.
In other news: BRING It, EARL!!
Make it harder to do hiring freezes, inflating qualifications, not hiring (in a non temporary way) in the US, or avoiding the US's unemployed.
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