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Jobless Claims Deterioration Continues - Print At 484K Versus Expectation Of 465K, Prior Revised To 482K
Continuing claims improved marginally to 4,452MM from 4,535MM expected (previous revised to 4,570), but much of the volatility in this series is due to transitions into EUC and Extended Claims. The one main indicator, initial claims, continues to deteriorate and will soon pass the 500,000 mark which will be the final confirmation the US never left the depression but merely enjoyed an 18 month sugar high courtesy of tens of trillions in incremental debt. And here come the jobless who had fallen off insurance rolls: EUCs surged to 4,493,351: an increase of over 1.15 million! Add the Extended Claims jump of 180K, and those on total extended rolls jumped by 1.3 million in one week. These are votes that surely would not have gone for administration come November if their subsidies had not been returned.
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green shoots turning brown rather quickly eh?
They never really went green. False hope, propaganda and confirmation bias colorized the fall brown haze into a pretty spring green hue. This is where the desperate men begin to sweat profusely and all those "break only during emergency" play books are being liberated from the history section of economic theory.
Expect some real frenzied activity over the next few weeks.
I like to think that during these times of stress (much like during 9-11) the folks who are orchestrating the dance (CFR, Rockefeller Foundation, etc.) bring out their next magnum opus legislatus (Patriot Act, New Deal, Donk, etc.).
No worries, Hegel has your back. (You got a problem here? Well, since we made the problem and lead the reaction, we obviously have a solution for that "problem." Don't mind the fine print, eh?)
Nice!
For those who don't recognize or understand the Hegel reference.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hegelian_dialectic#Hegelian_dialectic
http://www.crossroad.to/articles2/05/dialectic.htm
I'm hip.
Look for further destruction of personal freedoms and wealth at a congress near you soon.
RC
I just stumbled across this little gem. People are still buying firearms in droves. July has highest background check numbers.
http://www.buckeyefirearms.org/node/7385
LOL, cause and effect.
I am now up to...ummmmm, lets just say "several" firearms within a short distance of anywhere I might be located at home.
Viva la revolution!!!!
Gaming the dialectic...
Well, that's the subtle, optimistic perspective. My version is a little more raw: both perpetrator & victim clearly see the faded brown weeds, but one has a gun leveled point-blank while asking menacingly "What color are those green shoots"?
Someone needs to shout "Broken Arrow"!
http://www.grassbgreen.com/
Color blindness in the ranks of Fed/Treas/Admin influenced and controlled mainstream eCONomists.
it was never anything more than green tempera paint, and now it's washed away.
A Visualization of China’s Bubble Economy
Wow - feel bad for my 401k invested friends. Had no way to exit yesterday, and gapping down again today. It's almost criminal.
Meanwhile, family members criticized my decision to move my wife's money into bond funds about a month ago.
I have no sympathy for anyone still long this market. After getting burned 2x in less than 10 years, you'd have to be an idiot to have faith in this ponzi.
Someone posted last week that his parents were waiting for another 5% before cashing out. Looks like they may be too late. I tried warning him to get his parents to cash out ASAP. I hope they listened.
Sigh.
I remember the thread when you made that suggestion, 101 years. I was in total agreement there. That last 5 percent upward move is starting to look like "just another 10 percent and we'll get out." Not saying the guy's parents are greedy, but folks in that age group ought not be gambling on a sugar-fueled stock pump, especially when they already got back a ton of what they had lost.
Some people have no choice. We've been trying to figure out how to get my wife's money extracted from her 401K and it is locked up until she quits or is fired. Tough choice. I hate watching money that she was forced to invest melt away.
Fortunately, I was able to cash in my retirement and we bought land, chickens, silver, and seed.
It's a painful process to watch the money disappear, but it may just be a preview of what everyone with a 401K feels like when their money is used to buy Treasuries.
I don't understand the "no choice". Does her 401K not offer a money market or government bond fund option? I went to cash in my 401K last year around S&P 950 and feel pretty good about it even though the S&P went higher.
Not all of them do. I tried to ask our plan administrator (HR gal) to add more "safe" choices to our 401k. Right now we have 2 bond funds and a "short-term" FedCo T-bill MM. That's it. The rest are all equity all the time. You can therefore guess where my existing money is (I stopped contributing some time ago).
In spite of asking repeatedly - to the point of almost begging, really - for more options up to and including a straight cash option, she basically told me, "Well, Fidelity is telling us that's a good mix of choices so that's what we're sticking with."
Not that Fidelity, and of course the pukes who run their funds, would have a vested interest in that decision, right? Naaaaaaah.
The conflict of interest is staggering and a scandal. Neither Fidelity nor any other 401(k), 403(b) etc "fiduciary" will offer investment choices they can't make money off of by "managing" it, including offering their own money market funds instead of cash.
As Yogi Berra says in those AFLAC commercials, "and they give you cash, which is just as good as money". This is something I've heard a number of managers actually say. "Oh, our money market fund is just like/just as good as cash." Sure, only it ain't paying dick for interest and certainly less interest than paid on "cash". And they can restrict withdrawals for up to 6 months if they want to.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-EZf56AfYc
The market for the last two years reminded me of my Roulette system...watch for red 5-6 times in a row, then bet on black.
What usually happened was the ball would be on red 3-4 more times in row, then when you had all your money on black....bam..0 or 00.
you speak of uncorrelated events. roll A has zip to do with roll B.
Assuming you are playing on a "fair" wheel.
depends what you are invested in ;D if you are lucky enough to have been given bond funds by your "great employer," then you're doing just fine.
Go figure.
NICE EUC!
EUC
4,493,351
3,334,878
+1,158,473
wow man...EUC 2008 got it's funding back...leaps by over 1 MILLION!!!
So are we at 9.9999% unemployment now (plus shipping and handling)?
"So are we at 9.9999% employment now (plus shipping and handling)?"
There fixed it for you. (its more accurate now). (gov emp does not produce anything.)
Government employment is, um, dominated by teachers, police officers, firemen, and civil servants (you know, the kind who pay the bills to keep street lights on--unless you're in Colorado Springs). You're not seriously saying that these people don't make a contribution, are you?
It's similar to getting paid ot fix the lights in your home. The service mainly benefits you and not society on the whole. Goverment servicesm mainly only benefit the US and do nothing for international trade. That's why GDP growth is such a fucking joke. Government services is just us spending money to help ourselves and doesn't equate to real production of shit in the global marketplace.
+10
Isn't it ironic that the most conservative area of Colorado - Colorado Springs - depends the most heavily on government jobs (military and federal jobs) while the most liberal area of Colorado - Boulder - has the most high tech and private sector jobs??
Also, Colorado Springs is bankrupt and failing as a city and El Paso County is also broke as well...
While Boulder is the nicest and richest city/county in the state?
Why are conservatives BROKE? Why do they rely on government handouts to run their cities?
Why do liberals create the richest and most business friendly areas?
Colorado is a prime example of who relies on government jobs (conservatives) and who relies on private sector investment (liberals).
Have you ever been to California?
Yeah, the most successful areas are all liberal.
San Francisco/San Jose/Silicon Valley/Hollywood/Mendicino County - all rich, all liberal.
Now look at a place like San Diego, where most of the residents are military and the city is bankrupt.
success is relative.
Boulder is nice, but the liberal restrictions have made it "California stupid expensive" to live there. And of course being a liberal town you have the ubiquitous street people...young and old...looking for something for nothing (all applied for CEO of GS, but the job was already taken).
Colorado Springs, OTOH, is much more affordable and has values (financial and moral) that more resemble midwest rather than CA.
Colorado Springs is like ten times more ghetto though, AND all of its people rely on government jobs.
Every time I go to Colorado Springs (btw, I was born there, at Fort Carson) it's run down, and there's three types of people - weird meth heads, government employees, and bible thumpers.
Boulder is clean, the town is vibrant, and the people are educated and relatively wealthy.
Colorado Springs doesn't like anybody that isn't military or an an excessive bible thumper. The people there know that you aren't from there because they're so weird compared to the rest of Colorado.
There's no denying that Colorado Springs could not exist without massive government assistance to its economy. It can't even pay its bills now.
Boulder is still the richest and most vibrant area of the state...
OH john Ø john Ø what boulder dost thou speak. boulder i live in has the biggest bunch of dump shit educated wealthy white people i have to spend all day telling them
TO L O _ O K ^ ^ UP.
the homeless run this place, they got trees staked out, bridges, overpasses. they scare these educated wealthy white folks you speak of right back into their houses. the people think they are happy, NOT. vibrant fool rich kids. whole foods here, joke. finally got a guy checker and had some fun with him today self made cast for his broken thumb. said that is all the doctors do, he knew cause he has 30 broken bones so far and he was young. yep the woman are the god damned dumb things i have ever seen. now i got some homies over at flat irons, i really like, the young ones. Flat Irons GC is the best thing in boulder, no ones plays golf. i always had state championships at the airforce academy, little scary, agree. had a world championship there as well, good course.
hoards of stupid inner tube people, jesus i have never seen nuts like this in the boulder creek. gross people that definately should not be showing that much brown, black and white skin.
of course there is a miniature G O O G L E there.
Boulder is nice. actually the front range sucks.
I think our definitions of conservative and liberal are in fundamental disagreement. Also, are you using the terms interchangeably with republican and democrat? I'm just curious how you know who is conservative and liberal... political party affiliation is one thing... actually adhering to a political philosophy is another.
I'm in the high-tech engineering field in the San Diego area. What it has in common with Colorado Springs is a large University that is a welfare state unto its own. Almost completely dependent on both state and federal aid. Many high-tech startups get seed funding from DARPA and other government entities, local tax relief etc, companies like oh Qualcomm and many others(that's right they have a location in Boulder) including the one I work for.
San Diego like most large cities in California and the state government itself are completely broke due to the positive feedback system setup between public employee unions and the government(and are primarily liberal). The government employee pay and pension systems are their own Ponzi schemes. The last time the city was solvent was under somewhat more conservative leadership, but the last 10 years has seen nothing but corruption.
colorado has it's head up it ass. run by texans, republicans and white people. the only thing it's got is W E A T H E R, water and the rockies.
Recovery summer continues.
Sigh.
Don't forget to take $500 out of the ATM today. If you have multiple bank accounts, take $500 out of each, at the same ATM.
who's leading this movement, and how did they decide on Aug 12?
Midas Mulligan. It's Dagny's Birthday.
"who's leading this movement, and how did they decide on Aug 12?"
Our ZH friend, DoChenRollerBearing, came up with the proactive idea of a collective pull from the banks. I think August 12 was a random date, but gave enough time for people to plan. Today is the day - pull as much as you can and keep it out for as long as you can.
I would do it, but then I'd be supporting the kook/Glenn Beck/teabagger movement.
Fuck the teabaggers, and fuck Glenn Beck.
Also, Faux News... fuck them too.
Fuck the birthers and the 9/12ers.
obviously ADD, with a slight grammer shortage
Don't you love it when people talk bad about your grammar by spelling grammar wrong?
Also, it would require that you have $500 in a bank account to begin with.
Man you're shadow boxing. Who said anything about Glen Beck or "teabaggers"? This is about big banks.
But whatever, do your own thing.
how's that BP boycott workin out fer ya?
Do you hear me now?
Gawd, I just hate giving Leo these opportunities to buy the dips <sarcasm off>
I noticed Leo was brave enough to poke his head out a few times during yesterday's sell off though most of the other bulls were hard to find. Today might be different for Leo.
I am still waiting to hear how his buy before FMOC played out on Monday.
Although I don't really agree with Leo, I find it hard to argue with his premises. The Fed has created lots of liquidity that most certainly isn't going to get loaned out, since the retail demand for credit is shrinking steadily. Where will the money go? Risk assets seems like a sound guess, although the fact that there are serious alternatives (Treasuries, anyone?) leads me to believe that Leo hasn't thought the whole thing through all the way.
Yes the FED created lots of imagination. Load up a big plate of imagination for dinner tonite, tell me how it tastes.
Lucky for us, the FED didn't do any real effort to stimulate the economy and get people to work, otherwise everybody on this site would be complaining about his job.
Revision to 500K + next week.
I think 500K is a near certainty, but it is such a scary, round number that Obama and the Dems must be desperate to bring it in under that figure. I wonder what lengths they will go to or fictions they will invent to try to prevent it?
Bloomberg is just so pathetic. After EVERY job number (up to now of course) they use to have some "analysis". Now that the numbers and revisions are so blatantly obviously in the worst side... they gave the number in 10 sec and just occupied themselves with more important matters.
Thank you bloomberg for asking my opinions in a poll a few days ago. Now that your site is in white I think it looks much cute... content does NOT matter. Keep fu%$£%$£ing us on every hole
Scroll to the bottom, there is a link to the old format, which is preferred by a factor of 20 zillion.
Or you can use a bookmark of noir.bloomberg.com rather than just bloomberg.com.
The old format is still there, which, though I share the displeasure at their perpetual bias, I must say offering the old format is damn nice of them.
thanks, that was helpful
No doubt. Back to the bearish color.
Does anyone else pronounce EUC as YUK?
Green Jobs going to Mexico
http://www.onn.tv/news-feed/associated-press/solar-company-cuts-us-jobs-expands-in-mexico/
I would rather have jobs going to Mexico than Mexicans coming to the U.S. We should send our entire old age/rest home industry to Mexico. The old farts could hang out in the sunshine and there would be lots of jobs for the locals.
Great point...double dip this double dip that...only double dip I see is on a sugar cone for my kids!
We never came out of the flipping funk to start with so were going back in?
the denial/propaganda gets so fucking old...
They are back from holiday it seems. Bad news period has arrived.....were in for a troubled ride....
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-10783019
In hidden vaults across the country, the US government is building a stockpile of $1 coins. The hoard has topped $1.1bn - imagine a stack of coins reaching almost seven times higher than the International Space Station - and the piles have grown so large the US Federal Reserve is running out of storage space.
Americans won't use the coins, preferring $1 notes. But the US keeps minting them anyway, and the Fed estimates it already has enough $1 coins to last the next 10 years.
And at the current rate, the inventory will grow to $2bn (£1.3bn) by 2016, the Fed estimates.
The coins began to pile up in 2007 when a law went into effect creating a new series of $1 coins commemorating dead US presidents.
Already stamped into millions of pieces of eight-gram, manganese-brass alloy are presidents no-one even remembers anymore, like Franklin Pierce, and ineffectual executives like James Buchanan, whose incompetence historians say helped lead the US to civil war.
Geez, BBC. Speak for yourself.
"Americans won't use the coins, preferring $1 notes" The answer is so simple only a gov. bureaucrat cant see it: stop printing peices of paper with $1 on it. People will then use the coins.
oops. My own logic is flawed. $1 notes are issued by the fedral reserve. The coins by the treasury. They are in competition to inflate. I will retire to my underwater lair until I can develop my reasoning skills further.
Worthless manganese brass $1 coins, whats the material content 'worth' 1c?
"Since the presidential coin programme began, the US government has spent an additional $30m to promote them but they still have not taken hold."
Correction: US government has spent $30m of US citizen's tax dollars to promote coins that the citizens do not want.
Our country is being ran by idiots.
How much do they spend every year promoting wars nobody wants?
How about spending to promote drug policies nobody wants?
I'd bet it is larger than 30m...
If they made dollar coins out of gold, people might actually use them (or hoard them!) -- of course at around 2.3milligrams in weight/dollar, everyone would also have to carry a microscope and scales (sigh).
Thats just like Americans. Preferring paper over metal.
Guess the Feds decided a different strategy...pump the Baltic Dry.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BDIY:IND
What do you guys think about the fact that the Baltic Dry Index seems to be rebounding sharply?
That they are trying to raise prices to get some loot from the "Christmas" orders, which will be much smaller than years prior.
cnbc..santelli shines again..that ex fed guy is a perfect example of constipation of the brain.
"the problem with obuma health plan is that the GOP brain washed the masses.".
LOL what a turd.
Meyer looked like he was sucking a lemon when Santelli threw the asinine appendicitis analogy back in his face.
If Meyer and his ilk genuinely believes that shit we are in for a rougher ride than I would have thought possible.
quss right you are.. Meyer: "the fed must act even if it does not know the outcome"..
WTF???
Exactly. You essentially had an agreement by both sides, albeit begrudgingly, that the FED was impotent to deal with our present situation (where debt is no longer demanded). That should be pretty telling to everyone, when the FED shills agree the FED is effectively powerless, but for some academic hail mary to omnipotentbeingsuperinflation... NOW WAIT A MINUTE, THE FED IS NOT POWERLESS, IT CAN DO THINGS... but we dont know if they'll work. Ok, shut the fuck up and just watch the rest of the show. They need to give out dunce caps on these round table things. or make them go stand in a corner.
quss13 thats the really scary part- If these people actually believe even a BIT of their BS they spew daily, we are in for unimaginable horror.
A few 500 prints followed by a sharp leg down and prepare for Lehman like layoffs in anticipation and a spike back well over 10%.
The source of all government stats.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omyUncKI7oU&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lo4NCXOX0p8&feature=related
Yes, the Bernanke, Obama scheme is working as planned.
Actually it is. Destroy the current system and rebuild it their way.
Oh please. And how do they get around those pesky national elections that come up every two years? This isn't Venezuela with Presidente for Life.
They give you two parties that are exactly the same that follow the same agenda to vote for every two years. That's how.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE67B17N20100812
More than expected? Hah!
Only way to solve this problem, is worldwide debt default and forgiveness. Everything else is just lies and propaganda spun by lying governments. War is going to breakout somewhere soon. Everyone is testy. China is on the hook for the biggest losses worldwide. Something gotta give, the pressure is about to rupture the pipe.
I suspect a lot of wars are going to break out, but they'll all be civil wars. Too many people now know much is their own government's fault, via incompetence, corruption or both. Time for the world's ruling elite to get the kids, wife and mistress out, and about the only safe place is on that big chunk of Greenland that just broke off.
That's the way Depression, Sr. will differ from the earlier Depression, Jr.: we'll eat our own instead of starting WWIII.
I believe this scenario is vastly more probable than the world war no one wants and is penniless to perpetuate. Isolationism will be the new paradigm. Our collective introspection will be a painful endeavor.
chinthe, do you think they will take mistress out, as well? just askin your thoughts on this one.
what chunk of greenland, haven't read this?
A slab of ice roughly twice the size of Manhattan was calved from Greenland
In ancient days they called this a "Jubilee" where all debts were forgiven. Sort of like pushing the "reset" button. I think it's a great idea; could cost less than we gave to the Banksters (the "forgiveness" wouldn't apply to them, they are already served).
Wheat chrisis threatens inflationary timebomb, food riots:
http://www.infowars.com/wheat-crisis-threatens-inflationary-timebomb-foo...
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38656788
“Shortage of cocoa in global markets is not only pushing prices upwards, but also leading to a scramble for the commodity in the global markets,” Venkatesh N Hubballi, director of DACCD told FE.
http://www.financialexpress.com/news/cocoa-prices-up-on-global-shortage/...
Coffee, Arabica and robusta, solid upward trend for the last 10 years.
http://www.mongabay.com/images/commodities/charts/arabica_coffee.html
Bananas, up:
http://www.mongabay.com/images/commodities/charts/banana.html
All of the long-term commodity charts over a 10-year period show prices going up, in many cases significantly: Beef, up. Cocoa, shockingly up. Copper, soaring (except late 2008) for last 10 years, cotton up, crude oil up, groundnut, iron ore, maize, logs, nickel, palm oil, phosphate rock, thai rice, rubber shooting up, soybeans and soybean meal, up, soybean oil, up, sugar, tea, wheat up. (World bank commodity price data)
When many commodities peaked in 2008, there were riots in over 30 countries.
http://il.youtube.com/watch?v=gk-4r5cqMjk&feature=related
Even despite subsidies in Egypts, protests broke out.
http://il.youtube.com/watch?v=Nl_VrbgsjE0
So what is the US government doing to make the crisis more severe? It is using one quarter of U.S. grain crops to fuel cars.
http://il.youtube.com/watch?v=aUaScOZMhps
Besides, there is a new currency being used in the U.S. - food stamps.
Now there are 40 million users of this currency, over 1 million in New York, backed by food, and it is becoming quite popular. It is used by people who have jobs as well.
http://il.youtube.com/watch?v=Nht2eSnp76A
I may not be the first one to say so, but the issuance of more and more food stamps, e.g. government creation of new currency, is a sure way to increase food prices. Of course, the government will continue to print more and more foodstamps. They can even be traded for cash, rent, shoes, etc:
http://colorlines.com/archives/2010/02/selling_food_stamps_for_kids_shoe...
The more I think of it, foodstamps is the true QEII, it is absolutely stealth, massively distributed and invisible in official inflation statistics. But just because it is not the federal reserve, it could still surely drive massive price inflation. In conclusion, absolutely brilliant. Even Zero hedge does not seem to see the connection :)
this is just noise from the census workers
Unexpected.
I wouldn't call months of >400k claims a "sugar high." It would strike me as being more of a crack high, since you really have to be hopped up to think that is good and it really hurts when you come further down from there.
Yes the only thing thats prevented outbreak of riots everywhere is food cards and a market illusion that all is well. What would this country have been 18 months ago with a DOW at 4,000 and cuts in welfare, unemployment bennie checks and food stamps...in other words, what would reality look like? Hell millions of people would be dead already.
That's what we'll see after November!
At least the top 1% will be able to pay less in taxes though.
Who cares if the other 99% gets screwed by them? They're the donors to Republicans...
Possessing all the FRNs won't put calories or vitamins in your stomach (lots of fiber though :)) -- May they choke on them!
Ah hell, these bigger numbers just means the dept of labor has to work harder to fudge the numbers of new jobs created in some fucking wonderland next month. No sweat.
.
DOW and SP500 bearish megaphone wedge charts continue ...
http://stockmarket618.wordpress.com
Thanks for the info, Tyler, but as bad as the reported numbers are, the true reality is worse....the figures you're quoting from the BLS don't include the now unemployed, self-employed. That at least doubles the numbers, and these people will NEVER show up on the gov's radar.
IMHO we have a true unemployment rate now of about 30%.