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Jobless Claims Drop By 36,000, Print At 383,000, On Expectations Of 410K
So what is wrong with this picture: 457,000; 419,000 (upward revised of course from 415,000); 383,000. Those are the initial claims (Seasonally adjusted, as in adjusted for snow) over the past three weeks. Stock vol (which is now non-existent), has moved to BLS economic time
series... And yes, we had a sub 400k print in December, which was also
one of those "the economy is stronger, no doubt about it moments." Most notably, the data is for the week of February 5, when all of
America was covered in a blizzard. Odd how that is not mentioned. And someone is supposed to take this number seriously? Not the market, as stocks don't respond one bit. Oh yes, the weather. One thing is certain: no snow removal workers were fired in the past month, right BLS? In the meantime, NSA claims come at 438,548, a 26k drop from the prior week number. And the cliff keeps pushing out: those on EUC and extended benefits changed by +100K and -16K respectively. Continuing claims came at 3,888K on expectations of 3,900K, with the previous number naturally pushed up from 3925k to 3935k.
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Future improve, all is good again.
Jobs only matter when it's a better than expect report.
I bet snow slowed the filings or reporting
No way. The rules of etiquette say that you can only use weather to dismiss the bad news.
Let me fill it in for you:
Have I missed anything? :-)
Yes, you forgot that Ben's global body count is north of 400 now.
Indeed I forgot to list that libertarian myth.
Btw., here's an example calculation that shows how a 1% weaker dollar does not impact trade between non-US countries (i.e. does not impact global inflation):
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/did-wikileaks-confirm-peak-oil-saudi-sa...
Because the 'real price' of commodities (paid in Rupees and Rubles) is not affected by the minute fluctuations of the strength of the dollar.
And here's a graph that shows how global food prices surged last summer due to extreme heat/drought in key production areas:
https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/_VgJQTp0Bsf0/TU6_YfTtTSI/AAAAAAAAAMU/2...
Global food prices were decoupled from other commodities before that - and were decoupled from dollar strength/weakness as well.
Ben STFU and go print some more greenbacks
Just want to thank you for putting up a fight against the ZH idiocracy. You do realize the futility, though, right?
Well, I certainly agree with Einstein that there's only two things that are infinite: the universe and human stupidity, and that we cannot be sure of the former - but still, I think it's possible to reach a more healthy equilibrium here on ZH, to reduce groupthink and to increase critical thinking.
Since my spouse and I both got in on the front end of the economic downturn, starting in late 2006, I started looking for answers to see if there was anyone else who had experienced anything like I had, or if I just had early onset Alzheimer's. I've had plenty of time to think real critically about what's going on.
So maybe the sky's not falling in your world but the sky already fell for me, a good number of my friends and family and others whose stories I've read. For me, everything that I'd known to be "true" has been turned upside down. For example, I've never in my life had a problem getting a job or 3 whenever I wanted one; now, I can't even get an interview. I can name 5 friends right off the top of my head who've experienced precisely the same. I've already had to adjust to the New Normal: I'm working longer and harder than I've ever worked in my life for income that's what I used to earn 30 years ago. I'm not alone, and I fully expect it to get worse.
I've tried to explain this to others; some will listen, but the hardest of hearing are those with cushy jobs--often goobermint or military--who have not been directly touched by the downturn, and who earn enough that they don't have to pay attention to the subtle and insidious things like smaller packaging/same (or higher) price and fuel and energy prices going through the roof.
I have family members and a couple of friends who literally stopped talking to me a couple of years ago for my "kooky ideas". This past year, they got bitten in the ass by job loss, benefit reduction and the like; now they think I'm some sort of sage and I'm back to BFF status. Job loss will do wonders for your vision: you suddenly see the homeless population exploding, the increase in crime (often not reported), the vacant homes and businesses closing up.
So you can call me a gloom and doomer, group thinker or whatever you like. I've been around a while, have lived through several recessions, but nothing like this. And all I see out of DC and the Fed is piling on to make matters worse. Whether it's planned destruction or incredible stupidity is anyone's guess. No matter though. A whole lot of people have been all but destroyed. The game has changed. Significantly.
For the current situation I vote for "incredible stupidity" combined with "clever greed", hands down. But it's not just the stupidity of any 'ruling class' - it's the stupidity of pretty much everyone.
You probably have not lived through the 1930 Great Depression (nor have I). That kind of scenario could have happened after the 2008 crisis - 25% unemployment, GDP halved and 7+ million Americans dead from malnutrition.
That does not in any way make it easier for those who are suffering today.
But please note that my opinion is not that the situation is fine, lets move on. My point is that the situation is awful and that it is so awful that non-conventional methods are needed.
QE is such an 'unconventional method' to begin with - the conventional method would be what the libertarian Fed did in 1929-1933: nothing.
The result of inaction was tragic:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/SlVu0t0KqXI/AAAAAAAAFxo/rzSqiWrqGu...
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?bgcolor=%23B3CD...
your misrepresentation of history is appalling. it was the easy credit conditions unleashed by the fed to maintain sterling that caused the investment boom that led to the bust. they couldnt' do anything because they were already at a level well below what the economy required. just like happened today.
your revisionist keynesian history sucks mate.
That's a commonly repeated myth but it's wrong: the Fed did not actually expand the monetary base - remember, the US was still on the gold standard until 1933/1934:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?bgcolor=%23B3CD...
Note how the monetary base was largely constant, following gold reserves.
What enabled the roaring twenties was the anti-regulatory laissez-faire environment offered by two republican administrations - combined with a post-war "this time it's different!" zeitgeist. Banks gave easy credit on margin - to buy stocks, which as we know can only go up in price, right? :-)
Once that house of cards collapsed the Fed did not print more money to keep the economy liquid, the monetary base actually shrank and the economy came to a grinding standstill. The Fed watched as literally thousands of banks went bankrupt as more and more people withdrew their funds (and put it into their safes) and more and more debtors (and overleveraged banks) got squeezed by debt deflation.
What got the US out of the deflationary spiral? Going off the gold standard in 1933/34 (confiscating gold and then repricing gold), printing a lot of dollars and the government spending them - combined with a more active Fed and FDIC to ensure that people cannot lose their hard deposits in a bank crash.
European countries (the US crisis was quickly exported to Europe as well and expanded into a world economic crisis) dropped the gold standard as well - those who dropped it earlier got off better - those who dropped the gold standard later (like France, the last holdout) had a prolonged crisis.
You can see how the US monetary base increased after the gold standard was dropped, dramatically.
No, I didn't live through the GD but my parents and grandparents did and I've heard plenty of stories. Incidentally, mom grew up on a farm and said she didn't feel it as much as many others because they had food. As to your stats re: the 2008 crisis, except for the 43+ million on food stamps, that kind of scenario is happening now and all these "unconventional methods" are pouring fuel on the fire. Bailing out the TBTFs and QEs are causing much harm to us useless eaters.
You totally lost me on the "libertarian fed". There is absolutely NOTHING libertarian about the fed/central planning. I don't have creds from Haahvaahd, Princeton or any other fancy skool but I am smart enough to know that central planning doesn't work, that economies are bottom up, not top down, and anyone arrogant enough to think they can manage the economy ala Blackhawk Ben is beyond arrogant; he's downright dangerous.
you don't need to read zerohedge, you have choice over your information sources. If you don't like it here, then respectfully, fuck off.
I always enjoyed reading ZeroHedge and I'm making use of the free speech privileges that Tyler is providing on his website, to give you my opinion.
I can certainly be proven wrong - and it has happened here a few times and when it happens I will admit being wrong.
But if you just simply do not like what I write, then I'm sorry: I'm not a big fan of only writing what is expected or convenient, and I'm not a big fan of political correctness either. Groupthink and deferring to authority is the first step towards dictatorship.
wasn't actually replying to you. i quite like your posts, except what really really really annoys the hell out me is the SMILEY FACES!!! please stop using them.
also i dont' buy your story about why you post here, i bet you're on an ego trip and you get some kick here telling people they're wrong. If you don't like group think, go attack the boards at cnbc or yahoo or some other MSM place, I worked at JPM for 8 years, i know all about institutional group think and i don't need you to tell me what it is thankyou very much.
in short, i'm not interested in your crusade, i'm interested in the content of zerohedge.
so if you don't like what you read here, again respectfully, fuck off. Or at least lose the smiley faces they are sooooo annoying :-)
I don't find CNBC or Yahoo nearly as useful as ZH so why should I bother posting there?
Maybe, although it is a pretty weird way to go about it, don't you think?
My take on it is that I am interested in how things work, and I think that one of the best ways to improve knowledge is to contrast it with those who disagree honestly. That obviously implies that I like to argue as well. (But what do I know - I might be deluding myself.)
Seems like we are interested in pretty much the same thing, just disagree in how to achieve it?
We also seem to disagree about smileys. Why should every comment be devoid of emotion?
Keep posting, keep arguing. Part of why you are met with such "groupthink" hostility is because of the free speech allowed here; this place is so full of perma-trolls, I think many are just fed up. Despite the fact that you and I may not agree on much, you are one of the only true contrarian opinions here who is not a troll. I enjoy reading your posts, and the occasional debate.
i don't know if you'll see this, the thread is dead. but nice answer.
i still contend that your keynesian mainstream vue is available and taught in so many institutions, that zerohedge is an invaluable counter point and one of the few sources of austrian argument (i converted a couple of years ago) so you playing devils advocate here is really not necessary.
despite disagreeing with everything you write, the above post is pretty cool.
OK my Critical lord please riddle me in some of your free speech. When the room has been spackled and painted to everyone's liking, who is going to pick up the tab?
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
Give it your best shot ol wise one...But just remember anyone can live a perfect life on a credit card just as long as the limit keeps getting raised.
The value of paper currency is falling all over the world because of profligate government spending. Bernanke is not the only guilty party but he is the ring leader of the gang. People are starting to realize that paper money has no intrinsic value and can be rendered worthless by government. Hence inflation in anything that can't be printed.
Do you actually believe the Fed induced bubbles and crashes of the past decade are good for our economy or humans in general? Do you believe adding 1.5 trillion of debt each year will not end in tragedy?
Adding 1.5 trillion of debt each year in a rich and powerful economy that produces 15 trillion dollars per year and grows by 0.5 trillion per year is certainly not sustainable forever.
Adding 0.5 trillion of debt in an economy that grows by 0.5 trillion is still not ideal, but probably sustainable.
Doing what happened during the Clinton administration, to gradually reduce the deficit to zero and then to reach an actual surplus (for a short time):
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?bgcolor=%23B3CD...
Is long-term sustainable. I do not see why that could not be done now, given enough political will. Countries much poorer in natural and intellectual resources than the US have managed to reverse much worse debt spirals so why should it not be possible in the US?
Right now the political reality is that voters want jobs and stability and the deficit is a secondary factor only.
Note that Bernanke and the Fed is not creating debt directly though, by lowering rates they are enabling both private enterprises and the government to invest/spend more and take up more debt - which, no matter how illogical it may sound (google for 'the paradox of thrift'), was economically the right thing to do in face of looming deflation.
Name one. Include debt levels as percentage of GDP. Please also include links or references to your sources so I can read them. Thanks!
I have two examples with pretty graphs, datasets and references to sources.
In the first example there's no need to even pick any other country - consider the US for example, federal debt from 1939 to 1948 rose to 120% of GDP then dropped in absolute terms as well.
Here's the total federal debt from that period of time:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?bgcolor=%23B3CD...
(the link includes the source and name of the data series as well)
Here's the GDP proportional federal debt:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?bgcolor=%23B3CD...
(Source of data and name of data series is embedded in the URL - you can repeat the calculations.)
But there's historic examples of even 'ridiculous' debt levels, the UK for example:
http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/downchart_ukgs.php?year=1900_2011&char...
With a public debt peak of 250% of GDP and a country overcrowded and mined free of all easily accessible natural resources ...
(if you go to a wider timescale on that dataset you'll even see a historic case of 300%+)
So what matters is not the debt itself, but what is the structure of debt, and who is the debtor.
Unlike Ireland the US still prints its own money and unlike Ireland the US is literally sitting on hundreds of trillions of dollars worth of mineral rights and it's not like commodity (real) prices will be going down anytime soon ...
I might be wrong about the debt spiral - but the current debt level alone is certainly not convincing enough to me for a doomsday scenario. It's not even the right ballpark figure really.
"...given enough political will." - That's the problem. There is none.
"Note that Bernanke and the Fed is not creating debt directly though" - This is true. Congress creates it and Ben monetizes it.
"was economically the right thing to do in face of looming deflation." - The only thing deflating was bank balance sheets and housing (this is pain that would be felt one way or the other and it is good in the long run for consumers).
Anybody whose done critical thought knows the answer is Glass-Steagall not printing.
Are you really this fucking stupid or just a lying sack of shit?
http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=maximize...
I suppose QQQQ and the R2K were perfectly correlated with soft commodity futures from late August on, because of drought and a bad harvest. Your meaningless charts complete with incomprehensible axises aside. Throw out a hypothesis bitch.
You are a lowlife piece of collectivist shit employing an air of pseudointellectual superiorty to obfuscate and apologize for your beloved insitutions and the death & destruction they reap.
You never answered #934972 bitch.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/persons-not-labor-force-who-want-job-no...
Have I missed anything? :-)
Yeah. Critical thinking skills. Run along and BTFD.
lol
Perhaps you suffer from delusional psychosis, after years of abusing steriods. You are most certainly a sick individual. Seek help.
You should change your moniker to "Blindly Accept Everything At Face Value".
Why are you here? If you believe in QE, go find some nice socialist forum and discuss the merits of central planning. Regardless of whether you support handing over 1.25 Trillion to banks or allowing the US Government to "borrow" 600 Billion more that it should not be borrowing - you are desperately lost and confused.
I don't really agree with anything he says EVER, but why shouldn't he post his opinion? If we all just hang out together and sing Kumbayah, this place would suck dog balls. He doesn't go straight to every gold thread and tell us we're going to die in a horrible bloody massacre while we break our teeth chewing on Eagles does he?
Right or wrong, let him speak his piece. He is a statist. Most of us here aren't. I will respect his opinion BECAUSE it is contrarian, and he makes a serious effort to get make his point intelligently. I couldn't give a shit what his motive is; so what if he likes to argue? So do most of us, or we would just ignore it.
QE IS working, Less Critical Thinking...working to prop stocks up 2X what theyre worth at least.
The reason for the upward revision is myself and many others were out shoveling snow for some extra cash. They probabely estamated how many people paid for snow removal and added that fiqure to the bottom line!
upward revision train ftw
WHAT HAPPENED TO THE SNOW?! LMAO!
Half the week last week people were stuck. The storms hit 1/3 of the country. I'm sure weather skewed this report.
This number won't stick- next week it will be revised upward to 430k+ and the snow will be blamed for this miss...
Hell...there was so much snow they didn´t even know they were laid off...let alone be able to file for unemployment.....big jump next week me thinks...
Remember this: "They present to the masses manipulated statistics and bright hope for the future..." as the world below crumbles and burns.
I'd bet you $14 TRILLION in IOU's that next week, the number will be revised upward to 430k+
Too pessimistic and unamerican
Remember: Recession has been over for more than a year! Now US is in normal time and is growing at 4% a year.
More americans retired early due to increased wealth and confidence, and low inflation expectations
More Americans pursuing graduate degrees including MBAs due to increased future outlook and higher pay!!
QEs were really successful! wake up guys! Unemployment is OVER!!
Remember: FASB rules have been used as TP for more than a year!
More americans retired early because they had no choice but to dip into their 401k money.
More Americans pursuing degrees because it's the only government-backed loan in town for which they can get approved.
QEs were really successful...at lining the pockets of primary dealers.
I agree. The reason these people can't see the "recovery" is because of all the GREEN SHOOTS around. They are too thick to see through. In fact, the boomers such as myself are taking our social security checks and giving them to chairties as we have been made wealthy due to the wealth effect. We are now spending our surplus money on home decor at Harry's.
There is NO inflation if you are on fixed income, thus no reason for a COLA increase. In fact, inflation is so low, they are thinking about cutting benefits to better fit the deflation and we are so happy! To think anything else is unAmerikkkan.
JLR, the junk was from someone who has not yet made the trip.
Regards CI
I thought the sarcasm was clear
sing it with me...
I've got to admit it's getting better, better
A little better all the time, it can't get no worse
So, what does that mean? 7% U-3 now?
No. 7.2% Let's make it believable at least, ok?
More and more, people of serious consideration are questioning the credibility of the BLS as it slowly migrates to join the NAR in the doghouse of the disgraced.
No POMO no volume no market.
Denninger is having a full-on psychotic episode:
More to the point, what happens when you build in teat-suckling in the form of exponential growth in expense for every school adminstrative hackjob that fancies putting up a sign with "Auschwitz" over the entrance to the main hall? Never mind the clearly-displayed wet dream of running the alleged screwel as if the content of the water pipes in the locker room were gaseous.
http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=179651
Karl, you should get that throbbing vein in your forehead looked at before you throw a clot and stroke out.
and he's bang on about Whitney and Buffet. That is one skeleton alot of vested interests are desperate to keep in the closet. Classic discredit tactic from page 5 attempt in the works.
Yep. Looks like a very good rant to me.
Just because he hates gold and silver and doesn't know jack shit about them. Doesn't mean he doesn't know a lot of other things.
lol yea he is, apparently he isn't just an online troll, he trolls his daughters school too.
"Denninger is having a full-on psychotic episode:"
This is news?
Jobs are SOOOO 20th century. As long as the magic plastic card is stuffed full of Benny Credits....
it´s just government bogus data, jobs numbers, GDP, ISM, consumer confidence, home sales the are just lying.
the gold and silver are being suppressed just now.
We are back to the 1965-79 paradigm. Stocks, bonds, gold, oil all down on the futures markets. Good news on the economy may be bad or at best neutral news for the stock market, as stocks start struggling as bonds struggle, a la that era. The 1983-2007 paradigm may be consigned to the ash-heap of history. Time to buy the gold dips as the inflation in the pipeline hits JQPublic.
You are all aware I assume that a bill is being presented to extend unemployment for 99ers for and additional 3 1/2 months correct?
Is that the case, though? Something is gonna have to be done to suppress vigorous discontent--most states offer no assistance whatsoever for independent adults without minor children beyond food stamps.
Homelessness has been around for a while, but I'm not sure it would be a good idea for TPTB to turn loose the able bodied into the streets.
there are only so many people that can continue to lose their jobs?
I've been unemployed for a while now, I'm not even sure if the employed sector of the economy even pays better anymore.
Why work when you can sit home and watch Oprah and collect? So silly to work these days.
That depends- what are you getting paid in the unemployed sector?
Total on UE came in at 9.4 Million rising from 9.29 million. States accelerating their layoffs.
Operation Austerity has begun!
Inreasing and over 1.5 million since October have expended all benefits. Recipe for recovery. Those newly created jobs should remain intact when Ben "undos" QE. I envision Olive Oil attempting to Bench press a sanitation truck when Ben talks of withdrawing liquidity. It is never happening
I sell my gold now?
Sure...$1200/oz cash money. I'll bring my truck around back.
You have to be able to get to the unemployment office to file for a new claim. In Arkansas, the last two weeks, snow is a very real excuse.
That said, most of Arkansas' unemployed don't qualify for unemployment.
[That said, most of Arkansas' unemployed don't qualify for unemployment.]---ArkansasAngie
Hi Angie. Why don't they qualify?
Because they've been unemployed so long uncle sammie decided they should be counted on a different list, the one prominantly displayed in the sub basement of the Office of Officially Sanctioned Dreams...
One dirty little secret about unemployment is that employers are firing people on bogus grounds and then contesting their unemployment filings. Most states take the employer's word over the worker's. Appeal Hearings take 9-12 months for the case to be settled, for those with the perseverance and means to fight, and those too tend to favor employers. Employers, of course, know this, which encourages increased abuses. Ex-employees who don't know it quickly learn when they call processing centers all day every day for months on end without ever getting anybody to talk to.
Unemployment filings woefully understate actual employer-initiated partings.
Market up 20% since the last CSCO miss. Can it do it again?
gold drops 11% in five seconds,Blythe Masters unleashes the camels
Evel Snopes: "Oh H.I., you're young and you've got your health..what do you want with a job ?"
Bullshit.
On a technical note, there is a troubling Dow theory sell signal developing you would be foolhardy to ignore. The DJT has moved below the SPX on the run chart. Hasn't happened in well over a year.
[On a technical note, there is a troubling Dow theory sell signal developing you would be foolhardy to ignore.]---razorthin
Time to replace another DJ component?
Technicals are only as good as the fundamentals that support them. In this case, ZERO. TA means nothing. FA means nothing.
Yup just like the 2000 and 2007 fundamentals and the market. Great predictive value there. Go ahead, keep looking in the rear-view mirror.
Nope, although FA means nothing, TA is working, albeit on a very short timeframe. Adapt, watch, or just die.
We are not adding enough jobs to cover natural growth...400,000 is a big number...again watch food stamps....when they start dropping below 44 million I will be a believer...not until then....most statistics now are grey at best....
You're right. The purest measure is SNAP.
The only thing that matters now is the totally depraved and totally pissed off USD stud man. He just ripped the knob off of L. Blankfein's closet door where he has been locked in for weeks now, the door nailed shut after his most recent attempt to escape.
After correlation breakdowns in almost everything in January, clearly February has now re established the S&P/USD inverse correlation. Tick for tick this week, it has been the case.
It would seem that little Miss Euro is taking note after weeks of alcohol and drug induced fantasies that she is hot to trot. She is clearly shaking this morning. Welcome to the world of sobriety...it's overrated and painful.
On the brighter side, it all sure makes trading easier...with only two charts needed to understand what is happening. As for what is next, I can only imagine some of the most profane language and interesting adult movies ever put to film...if L. Blankfein's carpentry handiwork does not hold up and the stud man breaks out, lube in hand. But maybe Ben Bernanke will find a new an interesting way to get banana bucks to PDs just in time to short our currency again [on a non POMO day] while putting together another GETCO like stick save of shares in the JP Morgue as was witnessed yesterday at the close? If you are a bulltard, you can always hope.
Ah Wall Street...cue up more J. Dimon whimperings!
They can't shake that dopium QE2 from their backs.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6q9nBusrq8
These numbers are inversely proportional to those filling for food stamps and the participation in black markets. I know many people working under the table right now for cash or exchange of goods and services. All is well.
Heck, I just traded 4 of my 22-ounce homebrews for a complete service on our Dodge Caravan. I still had to buy the oil and new plug wires, but my mechanic friend did the work. I like where this is all going. TAX free economy baby!
Barter system is best. It's already in use in many places.
Charts UPDATED :::
http://markettechnicals-jonak.blogspot.com/2011/02/updated-charts.html
Thanks TI. Looks like you guys held 5250 this week.
This claims number is just another piece to the bearish puzzle: http://www.hedgefundlive.com/blog/thursday-market-expectations-reasons-why-the-market-doesnt-go-down-for-now
Clearly all this is decoupling from reality.
BLS - Bull's Liquid Shit
99 weeks ago was 3/19/09.
I hate to be such a troll, but all the 99 ers need to realize they are not going to get a job at their previous wages. And the usa is not going to give you three or four years of unemployment. Time to lower expectations. Either build your own business or accept that low paying job that is out there or go overseas. Even the ugliest american can get a pretty third world girlfriend and teaching english may not pay much but you will have a blast!
Got photos?