The BLS beat the expectations game continues. While this week's number of people filing initial cliams surged to 410K, blowing out expectations of 380K, it is once again the prior revision that shows the true nature of the BLS. As we said last week when claims printed at 382K, better than expectations: "last week's 388K was revised up to 392K, declining to 382K below
expectations of 385K, which in tried BLS fashion will certainly be
revised next week so that the actual number will have been a miss but by
then nobody will care." Sure enough: last week's number was revised... to 385K, meaning there was no beat. Obviously this week's number will be revised higher next week. As usual. Looking at continuing claims we see the same thing: the prior number was revised from 3,723K to 3,738K, meaning the drop to this week's 3,680K was better than expected. Lastly from the BLS, people claiming EUCs and Extended Benefits increased by about 40K in the week ended March 26 (full report here).
Elsewhere, PPI printed at 0.7% on expectations of 1.0%, down from 1.6% previously. PPI ex food and energy came at 0.3%, up from 0.2% previously, which also was the expectation for the March number. As El-Erian says on CNBC: "People may be surprised by the rate at which the core goes up." As for headline prices dropping, looks like once again nobody at the BLS actually bought food or filled up their car in the past month: the 0.7% headline number was the lowest since November 2010 (full release)