Jobless Claims Huge Miss To Expectations Of 380K, Print At 412K, Previous Revised Upward, Core PPI Higher Than Expected

Tyler Durden's picture

The BLS beat the expectations game continues. While this week's number of people filing initial cliams surged to 410K, blowing out expectations of 380K, it is once again the prior revision that shows the true nature of the BLS. As we said last week when claims printed at 382K, better than expectations: "last week's 388K was revised up to 392K, declining to 382K below
expectations of 385K, which in tried BLS fashion will certainly be
revised next week so that the actual number will have been a miss but by
then nobody will care." Sure enough: last week's number was revised... to 385K, meaning there was no beat. Obviously this week's number will be revised higher next week. As usual. Looking at continuing claims we see the same thing: the prior number was revised from 3,723K to 3,738K, meaning the drop to this week's 3,680K was better than expected. Lastly from the BLS, people claiming EUCs and Extended Benefits increased by about 40K in the week ended March 26 (full report here).

Elsewhere, PPI printed at 0.7% on expectations of 1.0%, down from 1.6% previously. PPI ex food and energy came at 0.3%, up from 0.2% previously, which also was the expectation for the March number. As El-Erian says on CNBC: "People may be surprised by the rate at which the core goes up." As for headline prices dropping, looks like once again nobody at the BLS actually bought food or filled up their car in the past month: the 0.7% headline number was the lowest since November 2010 (full release)

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
NOTW777's picture


Thomas's picture

Get Sophie on the phone. She's got some choices to make.

youngman's picture

As the BRIC´s are meeting about the demise of the US man

AmazingLarry's picture

Nice! I'll need to borrow that at 0% if you don't mind.

oh_bama's picture

Why too negative and unamerican!!

  • Claims are high due to JAPAN and MIDEAST!
  • BTFD and you will be rewarded!!
101 years and counting's picture

...BLS notes that jump in claims reflects quarter end.

So, companies now fire people at the end of the quarter? If thats the case, why did the retarded "economists" not know this and forecast it.  What a load of BuLlShit.

John Law Lives's picture

It makes one wonder why the BLS should add any such comments to the data.  Shouldn't they simply report the data and let if go at that?  It seems obvious someone sent them a memo to put a positive spin on anything they report.

Confucious 222's picture

Makes one wonder why the BLShit Bureau shouldn't be stuffed into the cracks at Fukushima to help revise the previous week's emissions.

smithcreek's picture

The reason doesn't matter, they just need to throw out one of these crappy numbers now and then so they can get back to the usual ways of describing the unemployment numbers:

  •  (this week and the next 4 weeks) the unemployment numbers have fallen x-1 of the last x weeks
  •  (after 4 weeks) the unemployment numbers have fallen x weeks in a row
  •  add in the always useful (when it goes in the right direction) 4 week average and you have data for every outcome
Global Hunter's picture

this is one of those moments where I turn on CNBC for sport.

oogs66's picture

I did the same thing :D  it was entertaining to watch liesman only talk about CPI and how food prices went down! 

Josh Randall's picture

As long as the Truck Stop buffet stays the same price, Liesman thinks the economy is doing well

billwilson's picture

Impact of Japan earthquake on US production?

I am Jobe's picture

Bad weather in the East Coast was also the reason.

SheepDog-One's picture

No billwilson I think US production of #1 product, 'bullshit' is increasing.

Campagnolo's picture

or maybe Peru elections?....or Chavez talking some bullshit?, what a joke

The Axe's picture

I love this data!!!   I decrease in the FOOD component??   You kidding me?  right..Do they only collect data at Taco Bell...

MarketTruth's picture

From one of the USA's LARGEST FOOD DISTRIBUTORS serving many chains and others, food prices have once again been increased from 4% to over 10% depending on product last week at wholesale level. Of course this is an APRIL number.

tip e. canoe's picture

quick Timmay pull that 3rd thumb out your ass and stick it in the dyke toots sweet, cuz she's gonna blow!

Saxxon's picture

Fed reporting seems to be engineered to induce short-covering bouts.

I knew we were in trouble when the WH Chief of Staff said something about not letting a good crisis go to waste.

mpok8's picture

i don't really understand the above article. Are you basically saying that bad figures (i.e. bad for the economy) are being slipped in by the back door? And this is done by revising the previously issued figures which people pay less attention to?

I am Jobe's picture

BTFD, America keeps exporting jobs and then saying the tax receipts has dropped. The truth is coming out and it s looking uglier everyday. Created or saved jobs is a crock of shitz. More pain to come and more layoffs. Get ready for a ugly decade.Meanwhile we need more fucking programmers and crap which is of no value.

LawsofPhysics's picture

Don't forget all the bankers and financial "experts".  Talk about useless crap.

oogs66's picture

Translation - We tried really hard to seasonally adjust our way out of this number, and just couldn't so yeah, its quarter end related, yeah, that's it.  Nothing to do with tax cuts failing, QE2 causing inflation without growth, etc....nope, just higher than normal quarter end volatility.  

WonderDawg's picture

Let's not forget the uncertainty in the cost of hiring someone thanks to Obamacare and the indecipherable tax code. All the while Hopey the Clown talks about cutting $4 trillion over 12 years, just like he was going to cut the deficit in half by the end of his first term. And $4 trillion over 12 years won't do shit, even if he did somehow manage to make it happen.

We're so beyond Fucked we can't even find it on a map.

taraxias's picture

Remind me again, what did he say about increasing exports? LOL

Alea Iacta Est's picture

hmmm...and what, pray tell, do we export?

Printfaster's picture

Guns?  Butter?  Vaseline?  Jobs?  Pollution?  Dollars?  Treasury debt?

Global Hunter's picture

BLS we don't just provide data we provide spin.

oogs66's picture

they should just drop the L in BLS

Problem Is's picture

Where's My Fuckup Job at BLS??
Where can I get a statisticians job fucking up so constantly that my work has to be revised every week and not only not get fired...

but make $100k+ a year with full benefits, retire at 55 on 80% of my salary with gold plated government medical insurance??

SheepDog-One's picture

'Reflects quarter end' so they admit they lie? Or are they asserting unemployment always goes up at 'quarter end'. Theres really a lot of people that need a good neck stretching.

DavidJ's picture

One Word:  Oil! 

I am Jobe's picture

Oil has not bearing on the Economoy and so is infaltion. Janet Yellen. yeap, I could not get inot Harvard. Damn, I guess i should have lied on my application to  get into Harvard.

youngman's picture

You don´t have to just have to be able to pay for it....

John Law Lives's picture

This is a recovery?

Hedge Jobs's picture

yep, the "jobless recovery" is back. who wants to take bets on when QE3 starts? I month, 2 months or straight after QE2 ending? 

GolfHatesMe's picture

Snowing in the NorthEast at the end of March

youngman's picture

If I looked at Obama´s 12 year budget he announced yesterday...I would be looking to move my companies elsewhere....I did...I am in Colombia

topcallingtroll's picture

Good move!

The chics r hot down there and it is a real status symbol to have a.caucasian usa boyfriend.

Blano's picture

Oh hey thanks for the info!!  : )

Global Hunter's picture

gold up a buck, silver a half buck, index futures down.  Rockin.