This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Jobs Market Recovery Now Underway?
Submitted by Leo Kolivakis, publisher of Pension Pulse.
Tavia Grant of the Globe and Mail asks When will employers start hiring?:
It's a key question for the economy this year as the recovery enfolds: When will employers start hiring again?
Though job losses have eased, so far there are few sign employers are confident enough to wade into the hiring pool again.
Insights into the jobs market will come Friday, when Statistics Canada
releases its labour force survey for January. Economists polled by
Bloomberg News expect employers added a modest 15,000 positions last
month. It's a far cry from the same month last year, when employment in
Canada plunged by 130,000 – the most on record.
The jobless rate is seen at 8.5 per cent from a revised 8.4 per cent in December.
“The
recovery in the labour market itself has not been smooth, as it has
seesawed between job growth and job losses on a fairly regular basis,”
said Millan Mulraine, economics strategist at Toronto-Dominion Bank,
who expects the labour market will stabilize in the coming months.
Canada's
labour market slumped at the end of last year, with revised data
showing the country lost 28,300 jobs in the month, rather than the
2,600 Statscan originally reported. The jobless rate currently stands
at 8.4 per cent, a notch lower than the 8.5 per cent the agency first
reported.
Statscan adjusts its labour
numbers every January to account for seasonal hiccups in the data. This
year's revisions were more extensive, going back several decades,
because the agency adopted a new model to make its seasonal adjustments.
Despite the revisions, the overall picture remains the same, said Geoff Bowlby, Statscan's director of labour statistics.
“The
big picture hasn't changed – the big story of employment falling
dramatically from its peak of October of 2008 to some time just before
the summer, and then being more stable after that. That trend hasn't
changed,” he said in an interview.
Statscan's labour force
survey is based on responses from 57,000 households, making it one of
the most extensive in the world, he said. It's about the same sample
size as that of the United States, though Canada's population is about
a tenth of its neighbour's.
Canada's jobs survey is well
regarded in terms of both accuracy and comprehensiveness, said Doug
Hyatt, economics professor at Rotman School of Managment.He outlines several reasons why the jobless rate is likely to remain stubbornly high this year.
“One of the challenges as you're coming out of a recession is that the unemployment rate
stays high, or gets higher even if we're creating jobs, because all of
those people who gave up looking for work start to come back again,” he
said. As well, “typically, employers say, ‘I could hire right now --
but I'm just not confident enough about my order book. So I'm going to
work my existing staff overtime.'”
The recession has killed about 323,000 jobs so far.
Recent
surveys on hiring suggest companies are still cautious. Nearly
three-quarters, or 71 per cent, of smaller businesses don't see a
change in their full-time employment levels in the coming months.
Fourteen per cent plan to increase their head count while 15 per cent
intend to decrease staffing, according to the Canadian Federation of
Independent Business survey released this week.
A separate
Towers Watson survey conducted last month showed four in 10 employers
are still planning job cuts, while 87 per cent plan to hire – meaning
some plan to both hire and fire this year.
Statscan will release
its survey at 7 a.m. (ET) on Friday. The U.S. Bureau of Labour
Statistics also releases its non-farm payrolls numbers Friday, at 8:30
a.m. (ET). Economists expect 15,000 positions were added last month,
with the jobless rate staying near a three-decade high of 10 per cent.
The agency will also make its annual revision to its payroll data.
There
is no doubt that employers are hesitant to hire, especially coming out
of a severe financial recession. But let there be no doubt that North
American (and even UK) labor markets will experience significant job growth in Q1 & Q2 2010.
While
everyone was scared to death following the stock market selloff on
Thursday (hope you were buying that dip), hardly anyone paid attention
to Cisco reporting dramatic sales growth and plans to hire in coming year.
And
it isn't just Cisco that plans to hire more workers. Business
investment is picking up and hiring is happening across all sectors so
don't be surprised to see some upside surprises on Friday morning.
Stéfane Marion, Chief Economist and Strategist at the National Bank of
Canada asks, U.S.: Upside surprise for payroll numbers?:
As
we look ahead to this Friday’s all-important payroll jobs report, the
latest data are encouraging. The employment component of the
just-released ISM report on manufacturing rose to its highest level in
four years in January. Also, we note that the Conference Board’s
Help-Wanted Online data series surged by 382,000 in January.
This
was the largest increase since the inception of the measure in 2005 and
brings the cumulative increase in online vacancies to 750,000 in the
last three months.
As today’s Hot Chart shows (click
on image above), online vacancies rose above the 4 million mark for the
first time since November 2008. In light of these developments, we
remain comfortable with our estimate of 100,000 net new payroll jobs in
January.
Consensus is expecting US payrolls
to rise by 15,000 in January. I wouldn't be surprised if the actual
print comes in at ten times that amount. Of course, this isn't a V-shaped recovery, but it is encouraging nonetheless, and I expect a strong reaction from the bond, stock, commodity and currency markets.
So
while everyone was worried about Thursday's market selloff, I expect
Friday will be a different day. The bears were growling on Thursday but
the bulls will come charging back on Friday. Going forward, markets
will become a lot more interesting - and a lot more dangerous.
»
- advertisements -
how about being a little more humble and less inflamatory....you pretty much guaranteed a huge number today...you look a little stupid now don't cha????
bankerboy,
Are you stupid? How can I or anyone GUARANTEE what the payrolls are going to be? All I can guarantee is that job growth is coming back to the US economy and don't tell me otherwise. Stop looking backwards and don't tell me the world is coming to an end and to buy gold. Sheesh!
I'm telling you otherwise. At best job losses have stabilized with unemployment now conservatively estimated to be 12% but probably higher.
Anyone counting temporary census taker jobs as employment growth should be euthanized immediately.
We can talk again in May if you are still around.
next round of large layoffs are coming from the public sector at state and local levels
Absolutely. It has to happen. Munis, Countys and States are starting that process now. They have no other option.
next round of large layoffs are coming from the public sector at state and local levels - Mr. Mojo
Absolutely!
Gold to 6000 by February. Oh wait, it's February...
Errr... ummm... gold bitchez!!!
not taking anything away from understanding the complex issues of stock and such, but leo was the last real job you had cutting your parents grass? This january was a slower month then the past january, now i'm not suggesting to you that you buy gold or dips or whatever, but where is this grow coming from? The only growth i see is in statistical fraud from the very generous BLS
hmmmm.....slowing growth in china, a collapse in commodities, a soaring dollar, a full blown soveriegn debt crisis in europe.....I'll take the other sid of the trade for now as the world sniffs out deflation
Leo, what are you on?
Don't want any of it, thanks.
Payrolls were down -20,000, not up,
and BLS managed to massage the
bogus numbers down to 9.7% unemployment.
For perspective, try
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/02/824000-will-disappear...
Or looking at the actual numbers before
they are adjusted. Good luck...
Because .5% of Americans, or 1.5 million, stopped looking for work!
Yeah boyee!!! Rally on!!! Chinese solar stocks for all!
nice call Leo...real nice!!!! I think you should refrain from making any other predictions for NFP...on second thought, a Leo contra account would be quite profotable
On third thought, keep posting Leo.
It may enrich us with fade trades...
Leo, I'm glad you had a question mark at the end of your title. When I first read it I thought you had totally left your senses and entered some sort of bizzaro parallel universe out there.
Leo, once and for all, get it through your head, THE RECOVERY IS A HOAX.
Roswell, bases on the dark side of the moon
and the face on Caledonia Mars may have more
cred at this point...
"There is no dark side of the moon. It's all dark really"
Nice call Leo....real nice...you idiot
And the BLS latest release:
Employment Situation SummarySo unemployment fell to 9.7%, but payrolls were unchanged, falling by 20,000 in January. We'll see how markets react to the news but employment is getting better.
Some bright spots:
In January, temporary help services added 52,000 jobs. Since reaching a lowpoint in September 2009, temporary help services employment has risen by
247,000.
Retail trade employment rose by 42,000 in January, after showing little
change in the prior 2 months. Job gains occurred in January among food stores
(14,000), clothing stores (13,000), and general merchandise retailers (10,000).
Health care employment continued to trend up in January. Ambulatory health
care services added 15,000 jobs over the month.
In January, the federal government added 33,000 jobs, including 9,000 tempo-
rary positions for Census 2010. Employment in state and local governments,
excluding education, continued to trend down.
That is just a continuation of a long term trend: more jobs in government, health care, and retail. Where are the productive jobs that will be a positive contribution to our trade imbalance? These jobs still relate to the consumption of wealth already produced.
Maybe the temp services category has a possibility to convert people to some long term, higher paying jobs. I really hope so.
Stats Canada:
Latest release from the Labour Force Survey
Highlights:
Employment increased by 43,000 in January, all in part time, pushing the unemployment rate down 0.1 percentage points to 8.3%. January marks the fourth employment gain in six months.
Ah, Leo, Leo, dearest Leo. Another day of prison sex for Leo, and many more days ahead, your dance card will be quite full going forward.
Too much anecdotal evidence for the smoke and mirrors to work much more; even citizens who haven't a clue about what the Fed is and isnt; what a trillion dollars really means in scale; etc know in their gut its all over for decades to come.
But damn don't those Chinese solar stocks look attractive.
The markets will be choppy, but dang Leo the overall direction has to be down.
Protect yourself.
Prison Sex
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F5sIXUbMgF0
Numbers continue to lie to placate the sheeple. Don't want the serfs to be upset on Super Sunday!!!
I hope you are right leo, best wishes!
I think the Euro mess will out weigh any positive job report tomorrow.
^AORD All Ordinaries 4,532.50 12:45AM ET 111.60 (2.40%) Components, Chart, More ^SSEC Shanghai Composite 2,930.05 1:12AM ET 65.26 (2.18%) Chart, More ^HSI Hang Seng 19,749.33 1:12AM ET 592.31 (2.91%) Components, Chart, More ^BSESN BSE 30 15,843.18 1:17AM ET 381.77 (2.35%) Chart, More ^JKSE Jakarta Composite 2,531.95 Feb 4 61.27 (2.36%) Components, Chart, More ^KLSE KLSE Composite 1,252.56 Feb 4 12.47 (0.99%) Components, Chart, More ^N225 Nikkei 225 10,057.09 1:00AM ET 298.89 (2.89%) Chart, More ^NZ50 NZSE 50 3,104.99 Feb 4 43.95 (1.40%) Components, Chart, More ^STI Straits Times 2,692.47 1:23AM ET 52.51 (1.91%) Components, Chart, More ^KS11 Seoul Composite 1,567.12 1:02AM ET 49.30 (3.05%) Components, Chart, More ^TWII Taiwan Weighted 7,217.83 12:46AM ET 324.21 (4.30%)Not looking pretty for Friday in the USA. The above was accurate as of 1:30 AM EST