Joe LaVorgna Reincarnates The "Green Shoots", Destroys Professional Credibility In Process
The man who once actually had some credibility, and has over the past two years become, very deservedly so, the biggest one-sided propaganda joke on Wall Street, Joe "Snow" LaVorgna, is out with yet another career reputation killer note. In his commentary on the BLS, the Deutsche Bank cheerleader dares to go where not even the Comcast-GE schizos fear to tread, namely in the most ridiculed never never land of Green Shoots. Because heaven forbid seasonal adjustments take account for snowfall in the deep of winter. Have no fear it is all good, and just like that other administration rag Mark Zandi, it is all back end loaded, and as a result we will see a 250k pick up in February payroll, February showers excluded... and in fact, should the weather dramatically vary by more than +/-0.01 degree from the median temperature, all bets are off. They don't call it the priced to perfection, Tungstenilock recovery for nothing. But here is the killer: while saying don't believe the bad news from the NFP report, the curly haired, CNBC sideshow Jow says: "However, the sizeable and unexpected drop in the unemployment rate was legitimate." In other words - let's pick and choose the data points he likes from any economic report going forward, blame the bad ones on ridiculous things, and pray that people are so dumb to not see the utter contempt for their intellgience that infuses the entire "analytic" process.
Labor "green shoots" lurk beneath the snow
As expected, inclement weather wreaked havoc with the January employment report, depressing both nonfarm payrolls and hours worked. Barring outsized weather disruptions in February, these distortions should reverse and we should see a sizeable payback next month. This is similar to what happened after a major blizzard in 1996. However, the sizeable and unexpected drop in the unemployment rate was legitimate and strongly suggests the economy is operating at an above trend pace this quarter. Consequently, we are in the midst of reviewing upside risks to our 2011 GDP projections. New forecasts will be published in next week’s edition of the US Economics Weekly....In forecasting February employment, we should add this estimate to what we believe is the underlying pace of nonfarm payroll growth. Assuming an underlying trend of +128k—this was the three-month moving average from October to December—then a 120k weather payback implies a 250k increase in February nonfarm payrolls. Of course, the trend in the labor market might be stronger than the +128k Q4 2010 average because recent data suggest economic momentum is building. For example, the employment components of the manufacturing and non-manufacturing ISM surveys each made record highs last month
Our question: if February ends up being below 250,000 can we finally put Joe LaVorgna, Mark Zandi and, of course, the ADP Payrolls report on the "brown sh[ ]ts" compost heap of irrelevant chaterbox indicators where they are long overdue to take their rightful place?