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Joe LaVorgna Reincarnates The "Green Shoots", Destroys Professional Credibility In Process

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The man who once actually had some credibility, and has over the past two years become, very deservedly so, the biggest one-sided propaganda joke on Wall Street, Joe "Snow" LaVorgna, is out with yet another career reputation killer note. In his commentary on the BLS, the Deutsche Bank cheerleader dares to go where not even the Comcast-GE schizos fear to tread, namely in the most ridiculed never never land of Green Shoots. Because heaven forbid seasonal adjustments take account for snowfall in the deep of winter. Have no fear it is all good, and just like that other administration rag Mark Zandi, it is all back end loaded, and as a result we will see a 250k pick up in February payroll, February showers excluded... and in fact, should the weather dramatically vary by more than +/-0.01 degree from the median temperature, all bets are off. They don't call it the priced to perfection, Tungstenilock recovery for nothing. But here is the killer: while saying don't believe the bad news from the NFP report, the curly haired, CNBC sideshow Jow says: "However, the sizeable and unexpected drop in the unemployment rate was legitimate." In other words - let's pick and choose the data points he likes from any economic report going forward, blame the bad ones on ridiculous things, and pray that people are so dumb to not see the utter contempt for their intellgience that infuses the entire "analytic" process.

From LaVorgna:

Labor "green shoots" lurk beneath the snow

As expected, inclement weather wreaked havoc with the January employment report, depressing both nonfarm payrolls  and hours worked. Barring outsized weather disruptions in February, these distortions should reverse and we should see a sizeable payback next month. This is similar to what happened after a major blizzard in 1996. However, the sizeable and unexpected drop in the unemployment rate was legitimate and strongly suggests the economy is operating at an above trend pace this quarter. Consequently, we are in the midst of reviewing upside risks to our 2011 GDP projections. New forecasts will be published in next week’s edition of the US Economics Weekly....In forecasting February employment, we should add this estimate to what we believe is the underlying pace of nonfarm payroll growth. Assuming an underlying trend of +128k—this was the three-month moving  average from October to December—then a 120k weather payback implies a 250k increase in February nonfarm  payrolls. Of course, the trend in the labor market might be stronger than the +128k Q4 2010 average because recent data suggest economic momentum is building.  For example, the employment components of the manufacturing and non-manufacturing ISM surveys each made record highs last month

Our question: if February ends up being below 250,000 can we finally put Joe LaVorgna, Mark Zandi and, of course, the ADP Payrolls report on the "brown sh[ ]ts" compost heap of irrelevant chaterbox indicators where they are long overdue to take their rightful place?

 

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Sat, 02/05/2011 - 14:44 | 937590 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

NILF increased by 2.2 million. Why will none of the so called pundits discuss this? The US has a massive long term problem. In 2001 NILF was 71 Million...today it is 86 Million...a 17% increase. The population only increased by 9% in that time frame. Do they not see the problem? 35% of the work age population isn't even counted on the UE rolls. Over 15 million people are looking for work (6.6 NILF actively looking plus 9 million on UE benefits) with only 3.2 million job openings (Jolts). The problem is so blatantly obvious....too many people..not enough jobs.....doesn't matter how you spin it.

Sat, 02/05/2011 - 15:07 | 937608 penisouraus erecti
penisouraus erecti's picture

Pardon my ignorance, what is "NILF"? Not in Labor Force?

Sat, 02/05/2011 - 15:13 | 937626 papaswamp
papaswamp's picture

Not In Labor Force...line A-16 of the unemployment report. Work age persons not working or receiving unemployment benefits.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t16.htm

 

Sun, 02/06/2011 - 14:49 | 939023 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

The Egyptian uprising was a total surprise to many U. S. and world "officials" and security services.   The NILF folks can perform the same miracle in our own country at any moment.   Commodities could be the spark for that as well, or perhaps a massive interruption of cable or internet service.   The unemployment checks have stopped for a multitude of folks and the food subsidy is buying less and less.   Hold onto your seats.

Sat, 02/05/2011 - 14:56 | 937601 zaknick
zaknick's picture

Hosni Mubarak, the little Kenyan snake oil salesman and Binyamamomma Nathan-yahooo embraced in a three way gay love embrace!

Draw it Banzai! I dare you.

Sat, 02/05/2011 - 15:06 | 937615 Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

I think it's official: the economy is "fine" and employment doesn't matter. That's what your going to hear more and more of from the pompom crowd (TPTB, MSM, Financial news media). And it's all a replay from 1982. Because now they can blame structural unemployment on lazy fat Americans, baby boomers, welfare queens, limousine liberals, and young Americans who are so,so, so much less worthy than their Chinese counterparts (back then they used Japanese). And of course they'll also blame tax policy and too much government regulation (same regulation that was too little and caused the banks to crash). 

The big picture is this was another huge leg down in the downsizing of America. Earlier steps involved the rust belt, heavy industry, textiles and electronics. Now even the service sector is being downsized through offshoring to Asia. Those health insurance premiums you pay are going to India where they're hiring an army of people that handle claims processing, payment processing and back office. Hi, my name is Peggy (chuckle)

The unemployment rate will drift down as homelessness and welfare picks up. But job creation will not exceed job destruction. Again, just like in 2002-7. And that tells it all because it's never happened before in US history. And TPTB on Wall Street plus Bernank will take 'credit' for the lower rate, when actually their policies are accelerating the problem. So get out your pompoms and join the cheerleaders of our expansion. Lotsa luck!

 

Sat, 02/05/2011 - 15:35 | 937635 myshadow
myshadow's picture

From January 2009 CNN,

..."brings job losses to 1.8 million in just the last three months, or half of the 3.6 million jobs that have been lost since the beginning of 2008" 

Yesterdays numbers reveal 400,000 99ers fell off the counter.  It is gobsmacking how this is being spun as 'snow days'. By the numbers another 1.5 million 99ers fall off in the next three months.  It is almost Bagdad Bob to think an economy that lost 250,000 jobs and created 35,000 jobs had a .4 decrease in the whole number.

Sat, 02/05/2011 - 16:10 | 937725 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

I think in a big picture sense, it's good that so many people are falling off the 99 week limit. As long as the UE benefits kept coming in, many getting those benefits remain passive and the ponzi continues. Nothing spurs action like urgent necessity, and maybe now some heat will be put on our glorious business and political leaders to make some necessary changes (I know, I know, fat chance).

Sat, 02/05/2011 - 15:14 | 937639 Stroke
Stroke's picture

Waiting for the CNBS crowd to show up wearing Dow 13,000 caps

Sat, 02/05/2011 - 15:30 | 937661 Yardfarmer
Yardfarmer's picture

He joined Deutsche Bank in 1997 from Lehman Brothers where he was a Vice President in the Fixed Income Division.  Prior to joining Lehman, LaVorgna was an economist at UBS Securities and he started his professional career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in 1992, where he was an economist on the Monetary Analysis and Projections Staff. ...hmmmm...

Sat, 02/05/2011 - 17:19 | 937826 zaknick
zaknick's picture

Duped

Sat, 02/05/2011 - 17:13 | 937836 zaknick
zaknick's picture

Thank you.

Now, how did our fearless, all-knowing leader (Tyler2) miss that most important and succulent morsel ?

This kind of propaganda explains the taxpayer subsidized banksters' bonuses!

Off with their bonuses!

Sat, 02/05/2011 - 15:31 | 937664 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

In other words - let's pick and choose the data points he likes from any economic report going forward, blame the bad ones on ridiculous things, and pray that people are so dumb to not see the utter contempt for their intelligence that infuses the entire "analytic" process.

As the insanity progresses, the world becomes locked into a form a regression therapy where instead of moving towards higher levels of thought, reason and critical thinking, we regress towards the mental skills of a 16 year old, then 10, then 6 and so on until we are 6 months old and constantly surprised and delighted to find never ending joy as we reach down into our dirty diaper.

Oh look, more good news. I wonder what it tastes like?

Sat, 02/05/2011 - 15:55 | 937695 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

Reaching into dirty dipers is the job of a TSA thug (aka Loser!)

Sat, 02/05/2011 - 15:38 | 937673 LoneStarHog
LoneStarHog's picture

Tyler, do you see something in common between Joe "Snow" and Phil "Spring Is Near!"> http://www.groundhog.org/

Sat, 02/05/2011 - 15:55 | 937692 august west
august west's picture

crazy joe divola

Sat, 02/05/2011 - 17:19 | 937843 A Man without Q...
A Man without Qualities's picture

It's a faith based recovery - just close your eyes and believe.

For what it's worth, the big banks are scared shitless. They don't know how long they can keep the whole thing up or whether their bad assets will bring the whole thing down, or whether we're going to end up with rioting on the streets. From conversations I have had they worry that one small event will start a collapse. So, there are a thousand logical reasons why the market should sell off right now, but one very big reason why it probably won't - fear.

However, it's my view they underestimate the threat posed by inflation (bankers struggle to understand a concept such as the cost of living) and how it is not just an emerging markets problem.

Sat, 02/05/2011 - 18:03 | 937921 Savonarola
Savonarola's picture

Little Joe is such a cock-eyed optomisty... he really believes that the money under his pillow came from a nice stranger... that bunnies leave eggs for us to gather... that the only thing we have to fear is... something-something.

Sat, 02/05/2011 - 18:46 | 937985 Elk peanus
Elk peanus's picture

Pubehead

Sat, 02/05/2011 - 19:21 | 938057 Jay Gould Esq.
Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

Actually, Little Joe is one of Larry "Kokainom" Kudlow's bosom favorites; as such, Joey very likely borrowed the "green shoots" from Larry's herb garden, to be used in a proper economic word salad.

Sat, 02/05/2011 - 23:49 | 938376 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

its pronounced laVOrGina..cause hes too transparent to be called a dickhead

Sun, 02/06/2011 - 01:11 | 938445 traderjoe
traderjoe's picture

'Assuming an underlying trend of $128k'

Was this before or after the BLS announced their benchmark revision - essentially wiping out the 'trendline'?

Sun, 02/06/2011 - 04:14 | 938528 pleseus
pleseus's picture

The economy tanked in 2007 when gas hit $ 4.00 a gallon.  People dialed back their driving and the economy rolled over because of it.  As we get back to $ 4.00 a gallon gas and even higher food prices this economy will roll back over again.  We are going to go through periods of inflation, like now, and deflation in 6-12 months.  It's going to be a vicious cycle of ups and downs over the next several years.

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