Joe LaVorgna Reincarnates The "Green Shoots", Destroys Professional Credibility In Process

Tyler Durden's picture

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papaswamp's picture

NILF increased by 2.2 million. Why will none of the so called pundits discuss this? The US has a massive long term problem. In 2001 NILF was 71 Million...today it is 86 Million...a 17% increase. The population only increased by 9% in that time frame. Do they not see the problem? 35% of the work age population isn't even counted on the UE rolls. Over 15 million people are looking for work (6.6 NILF actively looking plus 9 million on UE benefits) with only 3.2 million job openings (Jolts). The problem is so blatantly obvious....too many people..not enough jobs.....doesn't matter how you spin it.

penisouraus erecti's picture

Pardon my ignorance, what is "NILF"? Not in Labor Force?

papaswamp's picture

Not In Labor Force...line A-16 of the unemployment report. Work age persons not working or receiving unemployment benefits.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t16.htm

 

RockyRacoon's picture

The Egyptian uprising was a total surprise to many U. S. and world "officials" and security services.   The NILF folks can perform the same miracle in our own country at any moment.   Commodities could be the spark for that as well, or perhaps a massive interruption of cable or internet service.   The unemployment checks have stopped for a multitude of folks and the food subsidy is buying less and less.   Hold onto your seats.

zaknick's picture

Hosni Mubarak, the little Kenyan snake oil salesman and Binyamamomma Nathan-yahooo embraced in a three way gay love embrace!

Draw it Banzai! I dare you.

Caviar Emptor's picture

I think it's official: the economy is "fine" and employment doesn't matter. That's what your going to hear more and more of from the pompom crowd (TPTB, MSM, Financial news media). And it's all a replay from 1982. Because now they can blame structural unemployment on lazy fat Americans, baby boomers, welfare queens, limousine liberals, and young Americans who are so,so, so much less worthy than their Chinese counterparts (back then they used Japanese). And of course they'll also blame tax policy and too much government regulation (same regulation that was too little and caused the banks to crash). 

The big picture is this was another huge leg down in the downsizing of America. Earlier steps involved the rust belt, heavy industry, textiles and electronics. Now even the service sector is being downsized through offshoring to Asia. Those health insurance premiums you pay are going to India where they're hiring an army of people that handle claims processing, payment processing and back office. Hi, my name is Peggy (chuckle)

The unemployment rate will drift down as homelessness and welfare picks up. But job creation will not exceed job destruction. Again, just like in 2002-7. And that tells it all because it's never happened before in US history. And TPTB on Wall Street plus Bernank will take 'credit' for the lower rate, when actually their policies are accelerating the problem. So get out your pompoms and join the cheerleaders of our expansion. Lotsa luck!

 

myshadow's picture

From January 2009 CNN,

..."brings job losses to 1.8 million in just the last three months, or half of the 3.6 million jobs that have been lost since the beginning of 2008" 

Yesterdays numbers reveal 400,000 99ers fell off the counter.  It is gobsmacking how this is being spun as 'snow days'. By the numbers another 1.5 million 99ers fall off in the next three months.  It is almost Bagdad Bob to think an economy that lost 250,000 jobs and created 35,000 jobs had a .4 decrease in the whole number.

ElvisDog's picture

I think in a big picture sense, it's good that so many people are falling off the 99 week limit. As long as the UE benefits kept coming in, many getting those benefits remain passive and the ponzi continues. Nothing spurs action like urgent necessity, and maybe now some heat will be put on our glorious business and political leaders to make some necessary changes (I know, I know, fat chance).

Stroke's picture

Waiting for the CNBS crowd to show up wearing Dow 13,000 caps

Yardfarmer's picture

He joined Deutsche Bank in 1997 from Lehman Brothers where he was a Vice President in the Fixed Income Division.  Prior to joining Lehman, LaVorgna was an economist at UBS Securities and he started his professional career at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in 1992, where he was an economist on the Monetary Analysis and Projections Staff. ...hmmmm...

zaknick's picture

Thank you.

Now, how did our fearless, all-knowing leader (Tyler2) miss that most important and succulent morsel ?

This kind of propaganda explains the taxpayer subsidized banksters' bonuses!

Off with their bonuses!

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

In other words - let's pick and choose the data points he likes from any economic report going forward, blame the bad ones on ridiculous things, and pray that people are so dumb to not see the utter contempt for their intelligence that infuses the entire "analytic" process.

As the insanity progresses, the world becomes locked into a form a regression therapy where instead of moving towards higher levels of thought, reason and critical thinking, we regress towards the mental skills of a 16 year old, then 10, then 6 and so on until we are 6 months old and constantly surprised and delighted to find never ending joy as we reach down into our dirty diaper.

Oh look, more good news. I wonder what it tastes like?

LoneStarHog's picture

Reaching into dirty dipers is the job of a TSA thug (aka Loser!)

LoneStarHog's picture

Tyler, do you see something in common between Joe "Snow" and Phil "Spring Is Near!"> http://www.groundhog.org/

august west's picture

crazy joe divola

A Man without Qualities's picture

It's a faith based recovery - just close your eyes and believe.

For what it's worth, the big banks are scared shitless. They don't know how long they can keep the whole thing up or whether their bad assets will bring the whole thing down, or whether we're going to end up with rioting on the streets. From conversations I have had they worry that one small event will start a collapse. So, there are a thousand logical reasons why the market should sell off right now, but one very big reason why it probably won't - fear.

However, it's my view they underestimate the threat posed by inflation (bankers struggle to understand a concept such as the cost of living) and how it is not just an emerging markets problem.

Savonarola's picture

Little Joe is such a cock-eyed optomisty... he really believes that the money under his pillow came from a nice stranger... that bunnies leave eggs for us to gather... that the only thing we have to fear is... something-something.

Jay Gould Esq.'s picture

Actually, Little Joe is one of Larry "Kokainom" Kudlow's bosom favorites; as such, Joey very likely borrowed the "green shoots" from Larry's herb garden, to be used in a proper economic word salad.

TooBearish's picture

its pronounced laVOrGina..cause hes too transparent to be called a dickhead

traderjoe's picture

'Assuming an underlying trend of $128k'

Was this before or after the BLS announced their benchmark revision - essentially wiping out the 'trendline'?

pleseus's picture

The economy tanked in 2007 when gas hit $ 4.00 a gallon.  People dialed back their driving and the economy rolled over because of it.  As we get back to $ 4.00 a gallon gas and even higher food prices this economy will roll back over again.  We are going to go through periods of inflation, like now, and deflation in 6-12 months.  It's going to be a vicious cycle of ups and downs over the next several years.