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Joe Saluzzi On The Economy, Transaction Taxes, Fund Flows And Other Topics
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If it weren't for folks like Joe and those at Zerohedge, we'd all be drinking the koolaid.
I wish I was capable of living in the matrix...
It would be so nice to just watch CNBC all day and believe that the economy will go up 3% and stocks will go up 30% per year forever...
Damn skippy! Well, either that or walking around talking to ourselves like we were the only sane people in the world while everyone else looked at us like we were insane.
Now you know why the markets won't crash. Risk? What risk? Its all too big to fail now.
too big to fail...until it does.
oh man. this is what it felt like to be on the titanic.
You're right. The icecaps are melting, the meteor is coming.....THE END IS NEAR ! In the meantime,send your order flow to clowns like Joe Saluzzi. Amateur stuff .
woo, zinger.
Too big to fail until consumers say "enough" and cut them off?
Oh, my strategy is flawed! the Fed will just fill in the liquidity that consumers withdraw. And consumers being gutless bags of puke, still bow to the almighty FICO score.
I don't know, remember all that nonsense about the Great Moderation and the "end of risk" just a few short years ago? Look how that turned out.
Indeed too big to fail. Just remember ... "nothing fails like success."
Nice PR Tyler. Get those servers crankin'...
Hey at least you have time to jump ship - that's what our govt is giving you...time to bail out of dollars and real-estate into assets that the good ole USA can't devalue or take control of.
I'm going long dirt. Thank you Barak !
It seems Galleon was paying banks to get an "edge". Did
Galleon get too big for its shoes ?
Nice props, "Zero Hedge is a fantastic blog by the way, they tell the truth"
Nice ShoutOut to Zerohedge.com there.
I just love it when Carol wears that tight white sweater...was Joe saying something about the market?
I decided today, that i am going to drink the Kool-aid, take the hopium and jump on board the stupidity train.
Hopefully, i will be still be good and stoned when the train does a full frontal with reality.
Reality is S&P 1064. Traders trade !
Yep, I concur. Traders trade.
I am so smart. S-M-R-T.
Full frontal with reality.
NOW THAT WILL LEAVE A MARK LIZZY!
heh.
link? work won't let me view this embedded video!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVx8xBNBiAo
Curbyourrisk,
I think we work for the same employer! LMAO.
I was in a department store in the San Francisco Bay Area last Saturday, and it was packed....with Chinese made goods overflowing the shelves. Very few shoppers.
Where are all the German and Japanese tourists?
From what I saw while doing some shopping last nite the economy is getting worse in my neck of the woods.
While at our local Target I saw lots of people in the store looking around but in the checkout lines the only items being purchased were groceries. I bought a bunch of household supplies, 400 bucks worth to be exact and while walking to my car the security guy followed me on his segway and stayed in my area until I left. It felt wierd to be starred at by so many people while pushing my full shopping cart.
FYI, I am one of those people stockpiling necessities just in case of shortages in the future.
Security has a segway in your part of the country? Or is that all Targets? Thats ridiculous.
those security guards need Segways so they can conserve their energy for...uh...something.
Just at Target that i've noticed and they even provided him with a helmet. Next time i'm there I think i'll suggest a flashing strobe light should be attached to it.
ya cab't fight the business cycle.
IGotAColdGuy
i guess after you rocked cnbc it must be refreshing to be treated a little bit better on bloomberg?
Does the blond reader candy have any independent thought processes?
Yes she does. It's all the Republicans fault.
Of course not... but she produces some astonishing boners :)
Matt Miller teed up Saluzzi with the question about what is different now versus the last time we had double digit unemployment in the early 1980's but Saluzzi whiffed on it. What is different is that U.S. total credit market debt was about 160% of GDP and was 375% of GDP in Q1 of this year. The size of unfunded entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid as a percentage of GDP today dwarfs what it was in the early 1980's. Healthcare expenditures were in the 9-10% of GDP range in the early 1980's versus over 16% now. The financial sector didn't account for anything close to 40% or so of corporate profits as it did a couple of years ago before the bubble burst.
One of the biggest slow pitch soft balls Joe has received on that program for sure. And indeed, he was unprepared for it.
Anyone have a link to the piece ZH did that Saluzzi refers to at the end?
Thanks in advance.
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/spy-hits-3-sigma-divergence-vwap
has anyone seen what the fed is doing with the P/I that it is getting from the securities that are cash flowing - presumably that cash is redepolyedn into something which creates a perpetual buying program - if the balance sheet stays flat?
maybe it's paying the interest on banks' reserves...?
The idea that it is some sort of big secret that there is a disconnect between the financial world and so called main Street is nothing new. As is the process that the oligarch controlled government & federal reserve policy makers will follow in order to pump Main Street confidence. The difference I think Joe is attempting to address is that it is tough for traders to fight the fed, but that is not true of Main Street. Main street is fighting the fed ever more successfully through radical default, foreclosure, closing their wallets, no borrowing, reducing debt and so on.
The fed is being engaged and as Joe noted, with ever more success on Main Street. That is the bull trap because no matter how much the fed pumps out short term, it cannot make up for a consumer that has gone with the wind.
And ZeroHedge...
Rock on brothers and sistahs!
MsCreant, whenever you want it I have found a considered response to what I refer to as the "hate space" you addressed some weeks ago. I am sure that the time has passed and all is well and well beyond that discussion point. BTW, since you ask. I have had the best few days in the last 3 years after a short trip to the land of the legal.
Rock on indeed.
Miles, I am so pleased to hear about your, uh, "trip." :-)
Because of some reading I have done on spirituality, neruoscience, and biofeedback, as well as some personal experiences with meditation, I am convinced that there is a space that is natural, which can also be brought on chemically and electrically, that can help us to find solutions to all kinds of problems. The collective won't tap it. There is too much fear. Glad you did.
Most assuredly. The courage to be. Once you find it, it simply is.
All The Best
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=03Z5Ai3J1ug
lol @ the male anchor saying 'oh zerohedge, they're bullish over there'
I will challenge Matt Miller to find a place more bullish on free enterprise, responsible self government, the rule of law or the entrepreneurial spirit anywhere than here at ZH.
Matt?
Excellent words Miles!
The male anchor was totally clueless as to what he was talking about, and perky tits kept saying "it's better than it was" as if better than awful is somehow equal to good. That was a wasted nine minutes, and exactly why I don't have cable. That and the $90/month which goes into Winchester ammo, just in case.
Please,,
That was an attempt to marginalize ZH
Well my friends this is the political catch-22.
You cannot expound upon recovery, and then push through programs that contradict your claim to address an non-recovery. Politically, you are a dead duck. They have laid their cards on the table (As and 8s) and the market is holding a royal flush.
When is somebody a fool? when they can no longer hide stupidity. Stupid is as stupid does.
But seriously, to not recognize now is the time to be proactive and not reactive, is to gamble with the nation. A fools bet? and in the end, completely unnecessary.
I ask you, is this leadership?
It's a giant turd in the punchbowl of America.
+10000 zero hedge recognition!!!
That chick is hot. I almost want to get cable.
Dude...if you're looking for skin...
xvideos.com
tube8.com
Save yourself the cable bill!
The library of cultural utilities at ZH seems to be limitless...
Truly geopol, you have found your avatar.
Stick around..
Off topic...your avatar...are you a cigarette smoker, or do you just like that "glamorous age" of the 40's 50's? Sorry, just a pet peeve of mine(cigarette smoking), so am hoping you're not a smoker... :)
I do not smoke! I would get rid of that part if I could. She is a bit of a cartoon, but I like her fronting for me here on this blog. My hair is kinda like that, but I am no longer a light blonde like I used to be. I don't know if you can see that she has a pistol pointed at you. Kinda like I would like to be doing, questioning some of these banker fcuks.
I use a chick in a leather bustier carrying an AR15 on one blog and I use a picture of Uma Thurmon from Kill Bill, bloody, weilding a sword elsewhere. Those avatars' files were too large to upload here. All of them are armed pissed chicks with a lot of questions. That matches me pretty well.
Thanks for asking.
Come join us, get a name and an avatar too.
If you do get cable, all you have to do is go with Dish Networks Family package, comes with Fox News and Bloomberg. Both appropriate for those with a 5th grade education.
This is a most revealing clip in that it shows how desperately relentless the MSM "anchors" are in reverting to the party line. "better than last year".... "jobless recoveries are just fine... just like after dot-com collapse"... "this shows that keynesian stimulus works, right?" Er, right.
She sho is cute... but dang, there is a grave disconnect between fantasy and reality. When will it end? Soon perhaps. Look for an asymmetrical (non-financial?) catalyst to bring it all down.
Buster Bucani
Rosenberg just destroyed the fast money clowns. It is worth a video post. Check it out.
I do have a bone to pick with the people who comment on this site. I assume that this is a site for traders. However, no matter how wonderful I find the articles to be, the comments are about as lame. Don't misunderstand me, I do find one of the most appealing pictures on TV to be Quick's legs. But her and MCC's breasts etc. seem to dominate the discussion on this site. To be honest I do not care a whit about your opinion about, Obama, Fed comments, deficient rants, getting your own well equipped bomb shelter etc. These should be limited to articles that address the aforementioned issues. People, let us talk about making money here. I have never gotten even a glimmer of an investment idea from the comments at ZH.
In order not to be a hypocrite I have to give you a bone. HGSI is trading at VIX 266 with the most important FDA hearing scheduled for November 2. The analysts give it an 85% chance of approval. I am managing a 430 Nov covered/uncovered call position. I will admit that it is making me grouchy.
Thanks
You need to read this before you embarrass yourself further.
http://www.zerohedge.com/node/11120
Zero Hedge is a financial news and information site, not an investment advisor. Making investment decisions based on information published on Zero Hedge, or any internet site for that matter, is more than unwise, it is folly.
More at the link...
The fact that Bit Bucket can register for an ID and post an avatar and still not understand the purpose of Zero Hedge pretty much sums up what's wrong with this world.
Welcome to the zoo Bit Bucket. Nice to see you can pass the first Zero Hedge hurtles and still not know you ass from a hole in the wall.
BTW, I love it when you talk like that. Say it again but first let me slip into something a bit more comfortable.
I am managing a 430 Nov covered/uncovered call position. I will admit that it is making me grouchy.
Let me cheer you up so you don't go unnourished.....
http://www.dealbreaker.com/images/entries/beckyquickinwhite.jpg
She's dumb and has a horse face.
You better be really good looking or really rich so you can afford to pay for company. Though not a model or a centerfold, she cleans up very nicely. When you consider that 2/3 of the population in the US is overweight or obese, she is already at the 66% mark or better.
In terms of intellect, well... don't you think the problem is being either loyal to your masters, or terrified of what it means if the bears are correct?
Mostly, I commented on this to further piss off the prior commenter who thinks we should be trying to make him money.
MsCreant,
So many of the people I talk to are absolutely terrified that their worst fears might actually materialize. They confide this to me in a near whisper, as if to speak the words in a normal tone would instantly make it so. The look in their eyes is a mixture of terror and sad resignation, as if this is the first time they're really getting it.
I've talked before on ZH about the vast majority of Americans being Deep Captured by way of their 401(k)'s, IRAs and various private and public pensions but you sum it up so eloquently when you say they are "terrified of what it means if the bears are correct."
We Americans (and the rest of the "civilized" world for that matter) are now experiencing the worst hangover humanity has ever experienced. Worse, we have a sinking feeling that the masters of the universe are all either madmen or they're simply here to take everything not nailed down before hopping on the first plane to paradise.
Every night millions the world over are reciting the fox hole prayer of the damned. God, please get me out of this terrible mess just this one time and I swear to you Almighty Lord that I will never ever do it again. I swear on my children and my children's children that I will never ever do it again. Please save me Lord.
I've been contemplating how to stop these thieves before it's too late - all inspired by words of a familiar poster.
Admittedly, I do not have what it takes - my pen is not mighty, my funds are that of a pauper and I know no one of importance. But, I refuse to, night after night, recit the very prayer you speak of. We must stop them and take our country back.
I suspect most readers and posters of ZH aren't praying. We are looking for answers to the questions of our generation and are what I would call survivors. From what I can tell, we are the ones who, when told the boat is sinking, demand accountability and answers from the captain and crew. And we aren't quietly waiting our turn for a seat in the quickly diminishing supply of lifeboats but are going over the contingencies in our minds.
But for the vast majority of Americans this is all an extremely frightening roller coaster ride and they are (in their view) involuntary passengers. They don't really understand economics nor do they want to. In grade and high school they were taught the basics, the mechanics, and then set off in the world accepting that this was the way it worked.
And as far as they're concerned, it basically has worked the way they were told, at least by the ways they measure things. They got their education (or not) found a job and worked their way up the ladder (or not) acquired a house and cars and furniture (or not) and put some away for the future and eventually death (or not) all with the blind hope and belief that while there were the occasional thieves and evil players, that the system was self correcting and the people who were running the system were either basically honest or were constrained by others.
The realization that this is no longer the case, if it ever was, is beginning to dawn on them. And that cold chill of awareness is slowly creeping down their spines. Where are the cops, the adults at this party? Why isn't someone doing something about this? I pay my taxes, I've followed the rules, I did my part, why is this happening? This isn't fair.
There is a point in some car crashes where, if you're aware of what's happening and can see the road ahead, your mind grasps that you're going to be hurt and possibly badly. It's not really an intellectual thought because there just isn't time to comtemplate. It's more along the lines of just knowing but not understanding why you know. You just know.
Mercifully the accident happens so quickly that you don't have much time to be frightened. The adrenaline kicks in and it's fight or flight time and you're over the most frightening part quickly. Then comes the shakes. But in this case we are witnessing (no, the proper word is living) in a slow motion car wreck of epic perporations and we have plenty of time to experience every last gut wrenching ugly moment.
The average Joe wants desperately to believe that we have come out of this mess basically intact and other than some collateral damage, functioning and ready to roll. They want to believe what they're being told by the masters of the universe, that the economy is on the mend and all will be well after a very slow recovery.
But they have been frightened into a higher level of awareness and are beginning to ask more questions and demand more answers. They see that things just don't add up. They're not sure how the math works but they know in their heart, in their bones, that something ain't right, that things are not getting better, that the masters of the universe are engaging in the ultimate theft of the public treasury and not only are the cops missing in action, they are part of the thieving.
A friend and client summed it up so nicely last week as we talked about the events of the past few years. She's 64 and was going to retire next year but now doesn't think that's a good idea. She and her husband have been somewhat frugal over the years and are proud of what they have accumulated. We both just stopped talking and were quiet for a few seconds. Then she looked at me and said "We are so fucked."
Nice post. Besides your moniker Cognitive Dissonance, we could add in a few thoughts about the nature of cortisol constantly in the system, and stress, and what folks do to self medicate, to help explain why the message about what is happening is having a hard time getting through the switchboard. But yeah, in the grocery line at Whole Foods, I am talking to young clerks that seem to get it. Told one to watch Money as Debt, the conversation got that far. Another has a second job at a bank, she really gets it. They feel the heaviness of the situation. I almost have radar for folks who know, feel it, make a remark or two, wait for them to fill in some blanks, and then off we go. Always a relief to talk to others, anyone, any background, any where. Almost makes you instant friends and allies.
Survivors congregate together, drawing strength from each other. They seek out like minded individuals, not necessarily for confirmation bias but for comfort and alternative views. We know no one has all the answers and thus we respect contrary opinions that are fairly and logically presented. I know I learn on a daily basis.
The first step in dealing with your fear is verbalizing it, which then leads to it being disarmed and finally accepted. Only then can you fight back. Most everyone on ZH is somewhere on that path. I remind myself when I become fearful that I am as sick as my deepest darkest fears. Bring them into the sunshine and suddenly they are manageable.
But for untold millions, this disaster is barely being spoken about, let alone disarmed. Many couples have talked more about the costumes their kids will wear this Halloween than they have about what to do if the bears are right.
Always wonderful insight from you MsCreant. There are a number of posters on ZH that are a part of my daily read and you are at the top of the list with a small select group who consistently get it. While angry and outraged, you don't allow those emotions to control you. This is where the deepest insights come from, in accepting who and what you are and then moving on towards self improvement.
And you are obviously a wonderful therapist. Some of this gold you give me, while I happily accept it, I hope you are aware that this is your gold. You are strong and level headed and then a delightful imp. That imp is the shadow embodiment of the anger and rage you see in me that does not control me. In simpler terms, baby, you spot it, you got it!
Nice to count you on the friends and allies list.
Namaste
CD - You've hit it squarely. We desire only to share a foxhole with someone like ourselves.
All The Best
She has a kraut nose but she still looks alright, I was jonsen her rack
I just dropped my college ring under her chair, after a long interview..
@ bit bucket... "to be honest I do not care a whit about" grubby, po-faced little shysters like you." HGSI...VIX265...FDA 11/2....I am most profoundly impressed! "let us talk about making money here"... most revealing and disagreeable insecurities. Do run along sonny, you are too desperate for ZH!
@ brown hornet... unduly harsh analysis... I think she's lovely and coy, though yes, we should like to hone her analytical skills somewhat. Thats bone structure... not horse-faced.
the dank, pungent smell of a shyster wafts over the ZH boards... ahoy bit bucket, do cleanse yourself! You chaps never seem to quite get it with your nasty, objectionable greed. You always seem to know "the price of everything and the value of nothing"...
agreed miss creant, the lassie is both comely and able to understand her own nuanced position.
You can fight the Government. You can fight the FED. You can fight the darkness. You can fight the wind. You can knock mountains down if you just take enough time. Everybody is gong to reach their fuck you point one way or another.
Damn dude, you speak my language.
"Brazil is a speculative market"
And that's for sure! Liquidity ran away from small caps @ bovespa since last week. Though they keep pushing the blue chips up just to make up for that EWZ.
Thank you all for proving my point. I find it extremely odd that the site with the finest financial analysis has such a financially ignorant and/or poor audience.
"Shyster"??? By the way I spend weeks researching a stock before investing. HGSI closed at $19.97 with a volume of over 9M shares. Hard to pump and dump a stock with that much liquidity.
*** deleted text *** That was the case for this stock. It was a money for nothing and chicks for free situation. You all would not have understood it anyway.
Gotta go boys and girls. Europe opens soon. And you will not find me hanging around this intellectual wasteland again.
It's ok folks, the wicked witch of the west is gone. It's safe to come out and play again.
Sadly this poster sums up what's wrong with the world. The only thought and philosophy he applies to daily living is how to arrange the bills in his wallet (face up and towards the nearest Federal Reserve I suspect) and the Bits in his Bucket.
Good Riddence though I doubt the witch is gone. These types love to lurk and feel superior over others. No doubt the witch will be back to gloat and lord it up over us peons.
LOL
Sometimes a picture IS worth a thousand words. Bravo Cheeky Bastard. Way to strike at the heart of the matter with your new found posting privileges.