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Joe Saluzzi: "We Are One Headline Away From S&P 900"
Joe Saluzzi has been let out of his cage and is disseminating yet more truthiness, this time on Bloomberg with Margaret Brennan, where he references the ICI number we disclosed yesterday about $28 billion in equity outflows and says he "doesn't really blame" investors for bailing. After ongoing daily stock beatings, those people will be the smart ones. Joe has long been a proponent of the double dip, yet without a good soundbite, he could only have been classified as a second-tier bear at best so far. We are happy we has realized this little omission, and with Catherine's assistance, we now have one for JS as well: "We are one headline away from S&P 900." Definitely catchy/snazzy. As for the reasons why he thinks the market is doomed to a 150 point swoon (at least), he notes "stimulus is starting to run out, and in addition to all the problems from last year, now we've got all the issues in Europe, we've got pension funds that need to be bailed out... the government knows this, the Fed knows this, and they are just one step away from another stimulus packages, which the stock market loves." As for trading, Saluzzi once again explains why nobody should still trade stocks, courtesy of market distorting forces like the HFT SPARC brigade, whereby a few astrophysics Ph.D. determine the price of market (and thus US economy) defining Apple. Joe's long-term thesis is spot on: "Right now we are the flight to safety but that won't last long." Indeed - there is only so many countries whose CDS can hit 1,150 (ahem Greece) before the specs reorient themselves to a better upside/downside investment thesis (ahem Bund, Bobl, Schatz, and, of course, UST).
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We should play this Bernanke at the hearing and him answer the points that are raised. Real reality TV.
And Ben Shalom is one headline away from QE 2.0.
So in terms of what passes for the "stock market" today, I'm totally agnostic.
SP 900? Try sub-666, if history taught us anything.
SPX 860 just for starters. The main course comes later in the year.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-24/gross-vows-this-time-different-with-el-erian-leading-push-in-global-stocks.html
"Pimco, which has been synonymous with bonds for almost four decades, is taking another run at equities."
Pimpco wants to move into stocks....what gives?
They probably smell an equity burn down and buy up courtesy of Stim 2.....following elections, of course.
we seem to be reaching the point where they have nothing else left but to just print and buy, inflate everything up. Of course, they'll try and do it secretly, keep PM's in check, and outright lie about PPI/CPI numbers. May be time to think about going long.....
Good take RainMan in fact Pimco going into equities is substantiation that QE 2.0 is in the works.
Elections. What is this 2008 again?
Uhm, Pimco got it wrong in the Eighties.
Who says they're right this time? A "well managed" fund means that they loose less money for their clients than the other fund but they're still loosing money.
Could there possibly be a worse set of headlines than the ones that we've been getting?
... er ... yuh. Like Krugman has an SS-20 up his piehole (that's not the worse part)--but we're within 3 cep of the piehole.
not so good.
- Ned
I don't see anyone saying this yet, but I think Las Vegas is on its way to again being a sawdust joint....The big money asian players don't have to endure a long plane ride with Macau and Singapore so close to home....MGM goes chapter 11, imo.
Vegas will be one of the more visible signs that the party is over. Though I think everyone there already knows this.
Here in my neck of the woods, the local school district just announced that they may cut PE, art, and/or music in all elementary schools.
Most people on ZH realize this, but we are soooooo fucked on all levels.
Bah. We'll get the upcoming generation of kids. We'll rebuild, as long as there isn't a war. If there's a big war, then we will all have to learn to live with radiation sickness.
Or die of radiation sickness.
Less school means less chance for the state to indoctrinate.
I think this is a positive development that social engineering is coming to a screeching halt because the money ran out.
Imagine a world.. where parents actually have to raise their own kids. That includes teaching the kids a thing or two about life.
Trust me, it's a good thing.
The unemployed teachers can knock on doors and sell their "talents" directly to the families that would want to afford them.
The more I think about it, the more I love it. America actually has a chance to emerge from decades of intellectual darkness when (publich) schools have to close.
@walkure
I'm down with this plan. Some of us look at the eventual change as a bad thing. Maybe what we've got now is the bad thing.
I think you are being overly optimistic. The State will still be our childrens' teacher, they're cutting PE and art/music. Can't have proper mind control if the kiddies are fit and creative.
I agree, and I don't. Overall I agree, schools are prisons. Ok, but what about the parents who are inept as is? We leave them to retard their kids? I know I know, I am basically saying let someone else do it (teachers, etc). I have no answers.....
I do agree that where we are headed will be so different we can not conceptualize it, for better and worse. And I do agree that parts of it will be highly beneficial for some, if not most. But the wreckening will put us dangerously close on edge. Hopefully we keep our cool. My heart goes out to the children.
You start with school, then pass by state endoctrination to finish with (public) school?
Could it be that you are not against school endoctrination but that public school endoctrination gets in the way of what you think should be the correct endoctrination path?
Our school district looks like it is going to a 4 days a week scedule. We here have never voted no on a school bond. Never. This and a school counsoler I know said it was a good idea, because what else can they do? She is enjoying summer vacation.
More and more, situations are going to be inherited.
So why train people to get out of their situation? Makes no sense.
Bet they didn't announce letting go any layabouts in the school district's offices, did they?
They never do.
Casino Gulag
Great phrase from the archives of Max and Stacey - see Detroit as best example where almost all new employment has come from the city's burgeoning casino sector, meanwhile the tumbleweeds and crackheads litter the streets
It's OK. After the stimulus, the entire population will be working for the government. For recreation, we can gamble either on the markets or in the casinos.
If you want to make some extra money, you can always suck off your local congressman by advertising through craigslist.
Progress is on the march, citizen.
Amen Joe. But we can do without the headline. Just make it happen. Quickety-quick.
I was saying 10 years ago that everyone should get away from the great lakes region. The SUV craze was the last big money play for Detroit. There's really no reason for Detroit to exist anymore.
"You build a bunker..." Classic. Great closing line.
Yea they were just getting into the canned goods and real money before they were cut off.
We love you Joe, but the polticos and bankers hate you.
This fella already came up with a great sounbite months ago and i paraphrase :
"this is a jason bourne market where everyone just keeps an eye out for the exits"
As MSM blowhards go , hes one that makes sense. Just because he isnt a "strategist" or "head of research" or "academic" doesnt make him a 2nd class bear.
Streetwise > academic
Head and shoulders target of 860 but it has to make it through 975 first. That's bear market territory and you can bet it will be all hands on deck at that level. But in the end they may keep out of it long enough for the elections but it will go lower.
"Joe Saluzzi has been let out of his cage and is disseminating yet more truthiness".
Love it! Joe, if you're reading this, you rock!
Joe, Hugh Hendry and Chris Martenson (not neglecting you Tyler!) have been required viewing or reading over the last couple of years.
Joe's Twitter is here;
http://twitter.com/JoeSaluzzi
DavidC
The Republicans, and some Democrats, sent a shot across the bow to the drunken sailor extend-and-pretend bailout economics crowd that the party is over: http://thehill.com/blogs/healthwatch/politics-elections/105445-senate-de...
It looks like the welfare rate is going to be the figure to watch for a while instead of the unemployment rate. Millions of people are going to be getting on welfare very quickly, if they can, taking a 75% paycut. Never mind the end to state aid aggravating an already desperate fiscal situation for state governments.
Hey, at least when things implode the Dems can blame the Republicans, so long as they ignore the other other imminent signs of collapse.
[quote]Hitting bottom isn't a weekend retreat. It's not a goddamn seminar. Stop trying to control everything and just let go! LET GO![/quote]
That puts us 2 headlines away from 666.
The engulfing bar (sic) on June 21 told the story.
Bail out the pention funds (unions)! No way. That's unconstitutional. They can eat their own vomit.
Off-Topic:
http://obamaschicagonetwork.com/index.html
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602062&sid=aiVLIaRY2DuU
FTSE DEATH CROSS
The FTSE 100 has lost 13 percent from this year’s high on April 15 amid concern about the fallout from Europe’s debt crisis. The gauge today completed a so-called death cross, a bearish signal that may foreshadow a further drop, according to the head of technical analysis at Mint Equities Ltd.