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John Embry's 17 Reasons To Own Gold
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Goled bitchez
New to ZH, not sure if this is polite to ask or state... but I need to know... How much gold should I purchase? Every single ounce my dollar can buy? I have about 50k worth of gold in silver and gold.. 90% gold.
the more research i do on the subject of gold and silver the closer to 100% of my savings i put in them.
the important thing is to own the physical and not an etf.
from my perspective the only threat would be, 1/ the debt burden of the world is suddenly massively reduced ( not likely any time soon). 2/ a world currency of some description is introduced.
if a new world currency is introduced it will be met with scorn without some portion backed by something other than gold or even silver. either way we go to the moon or to jail.
boiow,
You need to keep your mind.
When we enter the Deflationary cycle(before High/Hyper Inflation), cash will be king..........you must be able to function day to day.
Rule of thumb,no one knows for sure what the ultimate HIGH for Gold will be, so use a guessimate..........
I seriously doubt we will not see it at least at $2500.00-$4,000oz, give or take.
Compare that to your total net worth, and pick a percentage relative to what # you choose, so that you will be able to at least stay EVEN on the Net worth side.
In normal times, 5-10%, with what is likely coming, you figure your risk tolerance.
Robt Prechter of Elliot Wave Analysis, say's we will see Gold at under $255.00 an ounce, in the coming Deflation cycle....
Personally I do not believe it for a minute, as you cannot(in the scenario the world is in), use PAST stats to give realisitic educated figures/ numbers.
We are entering totally uncharted territory...............Go with you gut, you usually will not go far wrong.
Gordon Geicko here, recommends 100% in........others, all over the charts.
appreciate the feedback. I agree with holding physical gold - serves two functions: 1. At hand in case of emergencies. 2. No fees being deducted yearly to dwindle its worth.
I don't think jumping in with 100% of my net worth in gold is going to be productive either nor is holding a mere 10%. I think a minimally diversified investment of gold, land, and cash will serve me well from the info I have been gathering from all of your postings, kunstlers blog and Tyler's posts. Heck, my gambling addiction with the stock market is still so strong... Even after knowing how the odds are stacked against me, I still wager a small (10%) of my holdings.
This is NOT investment advice; this only what I am doing. I am about 40% in dollar shorts (physical, CEF/GTU/PHYS, and miners), and about 60% in cash or cash equivs. The purpose of the cash is to avoid being forced to liquidate the PMs during any sustained deflationary period that could preceed the currency collkapse that I am expecting. In other words, I believe firmly that the PMs are what I will need to hang onto come what may, so I don't want to be forced out of them to raise cash to eat / pay bills. I am probably too conservative; like many others, I see evidence of the "next leg down" and intend to use it to increase my dollar shorts, especially miners, at reduced prices.
ditto
Bingo.............agreed.
Like alot of people are overly fond of repeating you can't eat gold. If things go really bad, Greatest Depression, Black Swan's blotting out the sun bad how long could you last. Enough to eat for your family and maybe a friend or two for a month or 3 and the ability to grow more. Have you a way to protect yourself from those who might want to take that food and gold from you??? A way to heat your house if Iran shuts the straights of Hormouz and Oil is 250 a barrel overnight? If you've got most of those things figured out and cash for your everyday non end of the world lifestyle great. After reading about the Saudi's giving permission to Isreal for overflight I'm worrying about those things a hell of alot more right now and I don't have half the PM's you do.
For non end of the world just a real nasty Depression you might want to dollar cost average into some as the deflation takes hold. Also mining stocks have a great upside as gold price's rise for those IRA accounts that you can't liquidate. There's going to alot of different opinions but alot depends on what's right for you and what exactly your buying them for.
Me I buy cash from local stores whenever I have enough for an ounce and 10 in silver. Options expiration is usually a good time to buy as the naked shorts pummel the price to not have to pay out on the contracts.
Neo,
Not to worry................
"After reading about the Saudi's giving permission to Isreal for overflight I'm worrying about those things a hell of alot more right now and I don't have half the PM's you do."
Obama has not given his OK, and that's part of the deal.
Israel foolishly made a deal with the AC, and gave the US the right to give the GO AHEAD.
If they were smart, they would take off now.As long as we have Obama (an Islamic apologist), as POTUS, this will never be approved.
Doc its just adding to the wall of worry. If we had a real POTUS this wouldn't be an issue along with alot of other things. When you look at the state of the world from the view of someone other then a frog whose being slowly boiled and see the precarious state things are in there's more uncertainty than at any period in my life (38) since the cold war ended. Maybe its just a symptom of being an news junkie and knowing 10x more about what's going on then most everyone else I know.
“Obama has not given his OK, and that's part of the deal.”
I do not believe that Saudi Arabia made this public unless sanctioned by the USA.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article7148555.ece
I believe the “Green Light” for an attack has been given
Maybe not tomorrow. But soon. Within twelve months.
The Saudis would not take such a momentous decision without the approval of the USA. The consequences are too great.
If the SHTF the Saudis will need the USA to “contain” Iran.
If this news is correct I would consider it most concerning.
What I do not understand is why it has been placed in the public domain.
Why would you let Iran know that the air attack would come from Saudi airspace?
http://oak.cats.ohiou.edu/~hartleyg/ref/images/middle_east_951.jpg
I would also suggest that Israel, the USA and Saudi Arabia know that they cannot control the outcome.
They know that destroying the nuclear facilities will be insufficient. They will have to mortally wound the Republican Guard.
This means all out war.
Iraq is 60% Shia.
It won’t just be the Straits of Hormuz that will be brought into play.
The entire Middle East will be at war.
Mid-east war is inevitable. Better we start pounding Iran in the ass before they have 50 nukes versus 5. Prepare for the strike sometime between Obama's 40% approval rating and the 2012 election. America loves a wartime president.
+40...Ali Baba's!
Iran could't win a war against saadam. what makes you think that they think they can beat anyone else or come out ahead by pursueing a particular avenue of action. Only westerners are stupid enough to believe the iranians are crazy enough to provoke a war. Like you said the US need a war.
What war heads btw?????????
Junk u
If Israel does go ahead, I hope they bomb the hole (cave?) in Qom where their Twelfth Imam is supposed to come out of... Their Imam thingy is like Christianity's Jesus Christ coming back.
Maybe they can blow away Ayatollahs there in Qom while they are at it.
Plug the hole in Qom, take out enough Ayatollahs, and Shi'a Islam is decapitated. The Shi'ites, of course will go berserk, but taking out their hole would demoralize them in the longer term. Reality: no 12th Imam from the hole. Bummer!
options expiration, appreciate the tip Neo.
1. When fashioned into a gold chain and worn prominently with a hairy chest it makes you look like a gangster-rapper.
2. As a male Indian seeking a pretty bride the more gold you have the better.
3. Gold teeth go well in certain poker circles.
4. Goldfinger is going to be remade by the Broccoli Family Franchise in 2011 and the price will boom.
5. If lost on a desert island a tiny piece will be able to save the broken transistor radio.
6. Fort Knox is overflowing and needs a spring-clean.
7. "All that glitters is not nickel" does not sound as good.
8. Gold should be a girl’s best friend but women are not that into commodities.
9. “Silverlocks and the Three Bears” was thankfully rejected by various publishers.
10. There is nothing like the sound made when a gold nugget is found by a metal detector.
11. You could never call a model "a platinum-digger" for marrying an 89 year old billionaire.
12. Gold has a wondrous texture, feel, weight and gravitas.
13. Gold is a fixed, finite mineral in a fluid, transient world where real value is not appreciated.
14. Gold hypnotises people to think that it is more important than trust in making the world go around.
15. Caveman Gronk first stubbed his toe on a quartz laden sample in 40,000 BC, so you should own some for anthropological humanistic-identification sentimental reasons.
16. Gold bullets, not cheap silver ones, will be needed in the not-too-distant future to kill the new breed of super-resistant vampires of the twenty-first century.
17. The value of the stuff will remain above USD $1000 over the next six months and is thus a good harbour for the safety first inclined.
As part of 17, what does "is anyone's liability" mean? I hear this a lot.
No counterparty risk.
John, you know how I was house sitting for you? I lost your dog and drank your liquor. Its ok, I will make up for it next time you let me house sit, I promise.
My dog will bite you.
Please do have a drink :)
Still can't open my safe, eh?
Maybe next time.
:)
I'm not trying to be a dick but how is that any different to a house or car or even a pack of cigarettes?
Ozzi, someone just broke your car window with a rock and burnt down your house.
and smoked my cigarettes while I went for a piss but my neighbors gold ring just got swiped.
I've heard anecdotal reports of people being robbed of their fiat cash too.
If that is the condition of your decision making process, good luck to you. You're going to need it.
Until gold runs out and you are no longer able to buy it with fiat money. Then you can carry it around safe as a lion cub.
May be useful for lighting the fire, too.
Or building money forts.
Don't forget wallpaper, can be also used for origami, paper planes, papier-mache (you dont have to reinforce it with textile either, because linen is already in the mix). You can also light a pipe or cigar with it. One of it's uses, that of snorting cocaine is pretty valid too.
I don't think you could use it as toilet paper or hankie though... too small, and i wouldn't recommend using it as cigarette rolling paper either, but i guess you could always compost it.
You could keep a bunch of coins for poker, and a bunch of notes for monopoly... i take that back, don't keep any notes! Just wait a little and sweep the streets for some, they'll be all over the place blowin in the wind :DDD
naw, I couldn't figure out the safe. Got too drunk off of John's wild turkey.
You're welcome!
i buried mine a few years ago and forgot where i put it. today i'm a successful landscaper.
Took mine out on a boat and dropped it! I'm a crappy boater.
Yeah, I keep reading about those boat trips.
I'll have to be REAL CAREFUL when I take my gold and guns out on the boat.
No different in the respect that they are all physical assets.
Plenty different with respect to their durability, portability, and general public acceptance as a store of wealth and occasional use as medium of transaction.
Also likely to be currently undervalued by the market (gold), as opposed to your examples.
Gold can also function to recapitalize as equity, after the imminent collapse of debt, which your examples cannot.
and don't forget.......when your trying to bust out through the holland tunnel when the shit goes down, those rolls of maple leafs tightly packed in over the calf business socks swung around your head at 20 mph could unleash some major pain on some dudes high on meth trying to block your path to safety in secaucus
Secaucus is never safe anyway.
NJ: 3/4 of the state is nice! 1/4, not so much. :)
Secaucus is the safest (and nicest) town in Hudson County.
Hudson County: 1/100 of the county is nice! 99/100, not so much. :)
By the way, ever wonder why you can enter NJ for free, but have to pay a toll to leave?
If it is a form of debt, it is someone's liability.
And they may, potentially, default.
At this juncture, that potential is increasing in likelihood at an exponential rate.
Physical gold has no such risk.
nuinut,
your first three sentences explained FRN's to "T".
You can't say we weren't warned. Every greenback says, "Federal Reserve Note" right on it, and a note is a debt instrument.
They even put the little pyramid on it, for cryin' out loud!
I would like to direct all those not familiar with it already to FOFOA.
I'm sure most of you have visited already.
Also a bit of related discussion here: NNW, which some ZH's may wish to join.
#409115 is relevant, too.
You are so right. It is a debt intrument. There is no term, no interest rate, and no collateral. If you or I wrote the same type of note we would be jailed for fraud.
Technically, a FRN is a zero-coupon perpetual bond. :-)
...and there is a really useful financial instrument for ya, eh?
Mr. GOLD himself John Embry. I've had the pleasure of hearing him many times at the Vancouver Resource Conference. The guy's logic and reasoning are ROCK SOLID. Care to take him on point by point Johnny B?
shhhhh. he just went to sleep.
That pizza delivery gig is tiring.
Sleeping on Mom's sofa in the basement is where he belongs.
Physical means no third party risk as long as your storage mechanism is secure, unlike derivs, securities, banks etc.
Nice warm fuzzy feeling for a Friday afternoon but nothing new really, although it reminds me to buy more.
Unable to bring myself to say it....G B
Yeah, me too. Should yell from hills, but am kind of tired from doing it.... G B
Go Britain? or Great Boobs....hmmmm,,,,
This gringo sez:
Go USA!
2:00 PM Eastern on ABC.
I like futbol because the announcer always wakes me up when something happens.
LOL. I only watch futbol during World Cups and only if I care about the team. If the US does not advance, OK, Italy & England I care a little about. Those two lose, no more futbol for 4 years.
Oh, and I maybe the only one who is the Anti-Brazil, the ABB, Anybody But Brazil (hey SOMEONE has to take the othe side of that trade). Ever since their player years ago punched out one of ours right there on the field.
You contrarian you! I am a world cup only guy too. I like Argentina. they play hard but still with flair. I also thought they didn't flail and flop as much as the next guy. This was during the last world cup so maybe the new team is different. I also root for the countries that have the sexiest women, so I like Argentina, Brasil, Italy, France, and Spain in that order.
South Korea! My wife's country of origin, and really good folks.
OK, South Korea too.
We get over 50% of our bearings from S. Korea.
+5
Government Buffoons
It may be time to rework the "Let's get classy" meme. Open 4 tabs on your browser:
http://www.rainymood.com/
http://www.endlessyoutube.com/watch?v=DIx3aMRDUL4
http://www.endlessyoutube.com/watch?v=HMnrl0tmd3k
http://idowns.net/uploads/090322/1_101144_1.jpg
Oh yeah. I'm feeling it now.
Because The SHTF next week. Yep, I'm sure of it. Never been more sure of anything. If you liked this market up until now, you will love it from here on out.
Hi Mr Lennon.
What is happening next week? Did I miss something? Or is this sarcasm? My Sarcasm Detector is very weak.
Pray tell. :)
This has been my one unsarcastic post of the night.
Well, I have this feeling in my gut, and I have learned to always trust my gut....
Not to sound like a broken record but they postponed the Hollywood Futures from the 8th to the 15th, so that will be a telling sign as to if we get another bubble before the gold bubble. Also, the UN passed sanctions against Iran so I think this could be a move towards war. Israel is still being crazy, and this doesn't help anyone. Most importantly, the technicals in the market are shaking up. Can anyone explain the manic moves in the market this week? Monday looked like the collapse would happen Tuesday (it always happens Tuesday), Tuesday looked like we were going to crash and burn and then there was that weird ramp job (Larry is so proud), Wednesday saw another great flea shake (PPT threw a bone to short positions everywhere), Thursday the world went ramp job (they will short you too Asia) and today, ramp job.
Also, the Dollar is topping....again. So unless the EZ goes back into crisis mode, the US goes into crisis mode. Remember, the States are all going to have to balance their budgets very soon. How, I do not know. The silence is deafening on this topic too. This time last year California had to issue IOUs (I know, FIAT is such, so at least they were honest this time), now I hear not a whisper. Oh, and the oil spill is so toxic...soo toxic. Yet all we get is the same mindless rhetoric from the kleptocrats about kickin' ass (yeah right Barry, do something then! DO SOMETHING!!!!!).
Also at this point I can not only blame the oilgarchs...where are the people? Where are you America? Your wealth is being transferred; how hungry can you get? Food stamps are good enough for yous eh? Well....ugh, DoChen, the whole last decade of exuberance was training people, and now there is this paradigm of greed and want. The problem is, the carrot got taken away and now there is only the illusion of a carrot. Yet people continue to chase this illusion. Optimism and pessimism are about as trite of terms nowadays as inflation and deflation. How about REAL. How about we analyze what is REAL.
I imagine all of these things colliding at an apex. FIAT funding liabilities, PM suppression, oil disaster...it will be like two rams scull butting...like a great clash of thunder...it will rattle the markets, and the "M"arket "M"akers will be forced to let go. When they do, anything could happen. Hyper this Hyper that, whatever. Terms do not make a difference and neither do numbers. The apex will be a reality transfer, nothing less. And the world we live in, the world we try to function in, is far from real.
Once again, I think it starts next Tuesday. They can not delay the inevitable forever.
Other than that, the week will be pretty good?
As long as CNN doesn't interview Smiley Faced Romer, we are in the clear!
Thx for the nice long answer (no sarcasm)! Maybe I will make ONE LAST run to the gold store tomorrow, but that's it! Nada mas!
Took me awhile (as it must have taken you to write your above long answer) to get back here to the gold thread, as I took a "break" to read Cog Dis's Chapter 4. I saw a little of you in there.
Any and all of you should consider reading CD's work. It is not easy though. Self work. Hard.
OK, so this weekend is our last little piece of tranquility. So have a great weekend everyone!
I'll make sure to be listening in next week...
when you go L O N G serious,
your serious.
is it me, or is ZH server just fuckin with me tonight†
I think your sexy. What does the server say?
Bing bong bong.
Yup, it likes you. Muse........
And yes I took my shirt and shoes OFF....
you gotta show that pu$$y
Do you know for certain that velobabe isn't really velodude? If not, you may want to keep that thought to yourself.
We don't need no stinkin' surprises.
+100
katla getting ready to blow?
http://beforeitsnews.com/story/76/930/Katla_Volcano_3_Earthquakes_in_Seconds.html
might all be unimportant soon. does anyone know if volcanic ash absorbs oil?
edgar gayce's readings say the 3rd ww begins in the davis straits. (just where did those 4 n. korean subs go)?
"does anyone know if volcanic ash absorbs oil?"
I hope so. Please lord volcano, save us from ourselves!
Opex is Friday too, isn't it, I think....?
From here on out, imho, we can expect three, perhaps even 4 digit DOW swings at any time. We've seen this consistently of late.
I feels bad to me as well. Give me jitters, and that's not normal.
My, we do live in exciting times.
First time post to ZH, but I have been following this slow decline over the past two years since the fall of Lehman... the first sign on this detour to the recent PM of Japan stating the dire state of their finances. A little past midnight and I see an article from Times online that Israel is now clear to fly over saudi air to bomb Iran: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article7148555.e...
I have debated(optimism on my part) that this financial "matrix," if you will, that was created by these con artists have fooled the sheeple for a long time... can easily fool people in their desperation for a little while longer. I have no doubt that without a black swan event, this little show could even last an other few months to a few years, perhaps even longer.
(I am an optimist, but the practical side of me has prepared for the worst... i.e.. two shotguns with a lot of ammo, food for 6 months, and about 50k worth of physical gold)
I am not sure if it was fear or rational thought that is making me prepare for a doomsday scenario that I don't want to see happen... however the preparations have given me some peace to sleep at night. The scenario where a sudden black swan event (i.e. like israel starting world war III by bombing iran) could easily cause this world to possibly shut down in a matter of hours to days is easily feasible.
My main concern still persists: what will life and society be like after this financial armageddon. world war?, a world like kunstler imagined?, the road?, little house on the prarie???? No one can know, people will guess and try to prepare like most of you and I are trying to do... but certain scenarios will make all that preparation meaningless and insignificant to the magnitude of shit that is about swallow us.
Basically, Tuesday is possible... black swan event and all.
OK..., so Tuesday is bad. But, it will be better by Wednesday, right?
"it will be better by Wednesday, right?"
Daggone right! Buy the dip!
Oh, /:Sarcasm_off
Nice first post. Welcome, friend!
"...but certain scenarios will make all that preparation meaningless and insignificant to the magnitude of shit that is about swallow us."
Chemtrails have whacked my crops and messed up my egg laying hens. I consider myself adept at growing things highly organic and not even worm compost can counter the deleterious effects of chemtrails. How about that for a scenario?
The UN Security Council meets this Tuesday the 15th to decide whether Iraq's sanctions are lifted.
It seems that Iraq has to revalue its currency as a condition to have the sanctions lifted. China and the United States are counting on the Iraqui dinar to revalue, as their banks hold trillions of dinars. China forgave 80% of Iraq's debt. If I'm not mistaken, Chinese oil companies hold over 50% of new oil drilling contracts in Iraq and have stopped working until the currency revalues. The way I see it: China needs the Iraqui Dinar to revalue to support the Yuan.
There is a major power play in Iraq and there is still no government in place after the March 7 elections. The Iraqis know the world needs their currency to become powerful and are making their moves.
Nice summation of the murky waters we find ourselves in. I think you are right - it's like the system is walking a highwire tightrope, and the minders are trying to balance things by adding debt+fiat in every-growing quantities as ballast.
The weight of this ballast will inevitably be too much to bare, and something's going to come crashing down.
"this ballast will inevitably be too much to bare"
I bare my ballast every time I remove my shirt. No problem is too big when you put your mind to it!
Well at least you bare your ballast without shame or chicanery it seems.
If more entities were as forthcoming as you about bareing their ballasts for all to see from the get-go, the world might be a happier place right now...
Me think the Tuesday after as next Tuesday is expiration week. Shenanigans week.
I will gladly repay you Tuesday for a hamburger today.
deleted message
#8 Gold production is falling as price rises
This happened in the 70s too. The explaination is simple. Any mining company has sources of ore, some of them richer than others. When the price of gold is low they must mine and process the rich ore in order to make a profit. When the price is high they mine the poor ore and save the rich ore for a rainy day. If they used up all the rich ore first, then they would go broke trying to mine the poor stuff. So any smart mine manager is going to mine the poorest ore that will pay.
This explains why production falls as prices rise.
Eventually production should rise by the opening of new mines, if the price stays high long enough. But finding and developing a mine is not done in a day.
nope.
Supply cannot rise forever. And what you say is patently false.
Profit is profit. Rich ore and poor ore, it's all the same, what can you earn NOW from it.
The rich ore went FIRST irrespective of the price. It was the highest ROI.
ROI is all that matters...for anything.
OK let's say you are CEO of a mining company. You have known reserves of ore in the ground. 1/10 is really, really good. 3/10 is very poor, only worth mining if the price of gold is real high. The other 5/10 is so-so.
Now, you can grab off the 1/10 and make a pile for the shareholders in 2 or 3 years. Then if the price of gold falls, you have nothing to fall back on. You lose money for a couple of years and get fired, or shut the mine down and look for a new job. Or, you can mine the poorest ore that will pay a profit. Show a profit every year, and eventually get ALL the gold, and keep your job for 20 years.
Sinclair and Lassonde have said much the same thing. With a company as poorly managed as Barrick has been at times - who knows?
My mandate as a CEO is to maximize my return THIS quarter.
Again, I posted charts, you can find them, of world gold production annually, and where it came from.
It's very clear from the pie charts that the highest quality ores went first, just like the highest quality oil deposits.
The low-hanging fruit is what everyone goes after because it maximizes profit NOW.
If/when I cannot produce my low-quality ore profitably, I shut supply in. If demand stays level, price goes up, and then my lowgrade reserves become economical.
This is how business works. NOBODY goes after the high fruit first.
r mandate is the same tired mantra..Some owners ..prefer to look out for the company the employees,,
obviously you are not an owner ,, and have bought in to a sad chapter in the spoils go to the most unetical at the top
a well run business will balance out the need for profit and the needs of the producers .
so that statement of each qtr,, as hog wash in my opinion . and deserves a 1 on a scale of 1-10
with proper managment the business will take care of itself ..
This may be the dumbest post I've ever seen on ZH. You're saying the board would retain a guy who's ignoring the highest quality mines so he could focus on the shitty ones--just so he can have job security? Are you a high school junior who just started his summer class on Business 101 at the local community college? Everyone here is dumber for having read your post. I award you no points, and may God have mercy on your soul.
Geoff the go to guy for BP..
the ceo cut corners ,, more more more ,,
now the gulf is a wash in oil
this idea to beat the street by a penny ..is a tired exercise in bull ,
obviously the largest business you started from scratch was a hot dog stand]\
business can accommodate , employees, stock holders and management .
their is no need to goose numbers for management bonus. or to push the envelope .
a good business can accommodate a steady growth pattern, with out the frantic beat the street mantra made popular in the teck frenzy,
take a look at some of the great business started by owners,, not obligated to walk on pins for a short term board opinion.
have you every had a business ,, started from scratch ..Well dumpster has
a 85 million dollar .enterprise,
emplyees taken care of ,, investors protected
sold this business to fidelity,, all had a portion of payout ,
the business was then taken over by a group that pushed for profit wanted stock options ,, it lasted for just three years
so take your sock and plug you mouth.
as a person who does not have the discrimination of a toad
CNBC is airing a show tonight 9:00 pm Eastern entitled "The Last Days of Lehman Bros.", after watching a brief trailer I would encourage everyone to watch.
Normally I would view something like this as propaganda or a re write of history. From what I have seen so far it looks to me that "the truth" of what happened back in 2008 may be coming out of the bag.
I have to wonder "why" CNBC would air such a piece and why now?
In the trailer, Hank Paulson basically told the "heads of US finance" that it was OVER! They only had one weekend to come up with something that would "only buy time" and that "they" had "pissed everything away". From what I have seen so far, this presentation is close to the truth, we will see.
But here is a question, if the above is close to the truth then where do we stand today? If we "were" so close to complete destruction and default back then, what have we done since then to put things on "the right path"?
The real answer...not a damn thing!
In fact, the government has gone further into debt, guaranteed all kinds of crap that is in reality worse and more toxic than "actual crap" and housing, employment and incomes have not improved.
The bottom line is that the risk today of a GLOBAL COLLAPSE is actually greater today than it ever has been! They kicked the can down the road and here we are again with the can right in front of us but who on the planet has the power and strength to kick it again?
The problems have gotten larger and larger as the sovereign governments have gotten weaker and weaker.
The best way to look at this is that back in 2008 the U.S., Britain, Europe etc. still had the ability to throw one last "haymaker", they still had the ability to leverage up one last time and bet the ranch. This ability is exactly what the markets are questioning today and the answer is clearly that the ability is no longer available.
The only tool left is to "print and buy".
Central banks will print and then buy the sovereign debt to try to keep the game going. Yes it works VERY short term until the "printed units" (currency) devalues to the depths of hell.
As questioned before, why would they air this now?
The only thing I can even guess at is that the game is up, the big money has already "distributed" what it needed to and this piece will act as a fuse. I mean really, who could watch something like this and see exactly how close the "end of the system" actually was without asking some serious questions now like the ones above.
We are in 100% CRASH MODE right now and what we are experiencing currently is all part of the show.
The SYSTEM is bankrupt, insolvent, broke or whatever you want to call it, the only thing left is mass public acknowledgment which will manifest itself in complete financial collapse, panic and civil unrest of massive proportions.
As this plays out, there is only one currency/asset that cannot be a part of the bankruptcy, Gold/Silver. Metal has no liability attached to it unless you don't hold it and fell for the paper scam of "we'll hold it for you".
THIS is why you must hold your own metal, it has no liability and thus cannot bankrupt unless you are lazy and allow liability to come between you and your metal.
Somehow that after watching this piece we (as in us tinfoil hat "Gold bugs") will feel an even stronger sense of financial peace.
Live like tomorrow might not come because one day soon "tomorrow" will be unrecognizable compared to yesterday.
While I don't like CNBC, some of their documentary specials are pretty good. The House of Cards one I thought was excellent, and certainly did not pull any punches. There have been several other good ones. I will tune in as you suggest.
This was shown on BBC a LONG while back............why it's not been seen here before now is not unusual..............we are always the last to know.
As always, if you want the real news about the US, you have to go overseas UK or to Pravda US.
Or Fox News. Or Drudge Report. Or ZeroHedge.
FOX is BARELY one iota better than the rest. They just give you a slightly larger piece of fluff to play with.
Watching TV News is like eating the crust off a pizza and throwing away the rest of the pie.
+10
Even Drudge, which is where I go to get my headlines, is biased in the sense that he (Matt Drudge) determines what the headlines are.
I come to ZH because it forces me to confront opinions and views that are very different from my own, and for the mostly unpredictable directions that propagate via the forum.
Lots of good links too.
PM has an indirect liability to it -- the citizens' liability to the government. As my daughter would say, "Government rulz!", and short of national anarchy, your gold -- or the profit you earn from selling it -- is ultimately only worth what the government says it's worth. Here's why . . . .
Right now, the government irrationally deems your gold bullion as a "collectible", in the same class as artwork, and finds it justifiable to collect a 28% tax on gold sales. Do you think that when the government feels the income pinch from declining tax receipts, it won't start searching for additional tax sources and significantly jack up the gold-profit tax? There was a 94% income tax rate in the over-$200,000 bracket in 1944 and 1945 . . . don't believe they wouldn't do something like that with gold. The percentage of gold owners in the U.S. population does not comprise a very large voting block to resist anti-gold laws. Keep in mind that draconian taxation would create an additional hit . . . the price of gold would plummet upon the news of its enactment.
There's also the threat of gold confiscation. For example, with the introduction of a "new" dollar to replace the hyperinflated "old" dollar, the government might outlaw personal gold possession to reduce competition with the newly implemented fiat. Your choice would be turn in your gold or go to jail.
But suppose you bought your gold anonymously and held onto it despite a confiscation edict. You would have to deal your gold on the black market, and there would be severe penalties for both sides participating in a gold transaction. People could get away with small transactions, but who would accept gold for a big purchase (like a vehicle or house) and risk subsequent imprisonment?
I'm not saying that gold isn't worth owning . . . I think it is. The problem with some future-of-gold prognostications is they often fail to address the many possible future scenarios, some of which would be beneficial for gold, and some of which would not be beneficial. The advisability of going all-in with PM, or believing owning gold is guaranteed to be profitable under all circumstances, is unwise.
A lot of assumptions regarding the more than short term viability of your govt there.
Agree--all things being equal, going 100% gold would be a good move. If the govt could be trusted not to steal it, outlaw it, or tax it at 90%. Then again, if the govt could be trusted, gold wouldn't be climbing.
Hedge your PMs with IRA-owned shares of huge companies that are TBTF, food, bullets, some sheep, and long distance geographically from city centers. Plus a copy of the Bible and the Constitution, for your grandkids.
Geoff the turban bomber dude is giving out most excellent advice.
I am already well down that trail, I would advise those who have not prepared for even a 'small' SHTF scenario to start.
Sheep are important - do not underestimate. Make sure you can run fast to catch a pretty one.
Freebird has a good point...but then again, the sheep all get purtier at closin' time...
The market for gold has existed since before the beginning of recorded history.
Can't say that about governments, or even civilizations.
They come and go.
Gold is eternal...
http://www.onlygold.com/tutorialpages/historyfs.htm
"Gold has always had value to humans, even before it was money. This is demonstrated by the extraordinary efforts made to obtain it. Prospecting for gold was a worldwide effort going back thousands of years, even before the first money in the form of gold coins appeared about 700 B.C. "
YO YO YO !
Looks like trouble
Saudi Arabia gives Israel clear skies to attack Iranian nuclear siteshttp://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article7148555.ece
Oh Shi !
oh shiite!
Precipitate a downfall in the House of Saud, perhaps?
A new embargo and the end of the petrodollar...the ramifications here are immense.
The Saudi's are smart, they fear IRAN, the Persians hate the Saudi's, and Saudi would like nothing better than to Stop,or severely restrict the growing power of Iran in the region....
Compared to Obywanbejcarib, Hussein was an itch.
Iran, BEFORE going Nuclear, destabilzed the entire ME.
This cannot be good for Iran, Saudi Arabia or the middle east. It is an act of betrayal by the Saudi's and an act of aggression by the Israeli's especially in light of Iran NOT violating any legitimate international treaty.
Ozziindaus:
I agree, this is not good for Iran. Now the Russian's have backed off selling Iran defensive missile systems.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/world/middle_east/10298071.stm
It starting to look as if the main players are on the same page. I don't have a dog in this fight, only an observation.
Yes, inquiring minds want to know.
A good SHTF week is always welcome.
Thanks Mr. LH.
Major out of order on this post. Meant to follow Mr. Hendrix +1 above.
john - shut the fuck up....there is only 1 reason to own gold - it's money...he who owns the gold makes the rules.....
stop wasting my time with prolix bullshit....buy physical gold early and often....
Are you replying to me? Not sure here.
I do but gold regularly.
I think he meant Embry (?). My only contention is gold as currency. Not in physical form it won't be.
.
my time ..lol
sort of a self centered remark
There are more black swan flying over the global financial system than there is space junk. You can't move for bumping into a new born black swan. In previous times anyone of these swans would have been enough to take the market on a dive, now all of them together, even as they increase, are not enough to do the job.
In rural areas, especially near forrests every year they do burns, and create large firebreaks. They do this at times where there is little risk of creating a great bigh conflageration. It is risk management of the environment. It reduces the fuel load so when a fire in a fire season starts it's burn is less vigorous and less intense so does less damage.
There has been no derisking, no reduction of fuel load around the financial markets forest, in fact extra fuel is poured on daily. So when a fire does start...
Gold would be an even better money if it had zero alternative uses except from just being. That is the whole point of gold as money. It is very limited, cannot be faked or manufactured, growth in supply is extremely limited and difficult. As more of the worlds wealth pours into it the fractions it is divided into increase in value.
At the moment all the worlds wealth is moved around by transfers called cash. Cash can move wealth around, and can be a store of wealth according to health of government, economies and the world. It is not limited, can be doulbed in volume at the flick of switch and rusted by inflation. It can be used to obtain valuable things in demand one year and next to worthless the next year.
If you converted your entire wealth into cash and put it on the table in front of you and realise that is all that you have in the world...then you turn on the radio and hear about Lehmans, US debt, commercial and residential realestate crashing here and around the world, the value of currencies see sawing...how confident are you going to feel putting all that into a bank, or safe and hoping to come back to it a year later?
Put all that cash into gold, and you feel sumpremely confident that in one year or ten years time that you will have retained a great portion of your wealth, if not increased it. You will feel confident that you will have something worthwhile. You will not worry, you will sleep at nights. You will know that if gold goes down today that inevitably it will be worth more than you started with at the times SHTF which is what you want.
I have always struggled to NOT put all assets in PMs. When you hold a Canadian Maple in your hand, it has an almost intoxicating effect. Sort of like the feeling you get when you drink a fine coffee. Gold coins have a special "heft" to them, a beautiful and unique finish, and a lovely design. Before all this mess hit, experts always told me I was way overinvested in PMs, but I simply could not resist the beauty and allure. I also really like the Mexican gold pieces. Truly beautiful. I love the new American Buffalo's. I am not so big on the eagles, as to me, the eagle has sort of a goofy look with the wings, but I do like the other side of the coin. Maybe it is just me, but there has always been something irresistible about PM, even before this mess hit.
I agree with you 100%. Buying PM's is also one of the few activities where you get to spend and save at the same time.
Nobody in my family ever showed the slightest bit of interest in looking at a quarterly statement, but they sure like to look at even the smallest gold coin.
"Saving for the Apocalypse: Fun for the Entire Family!"
I think most people on ZH already have gold or silver,they don't have to be
convinced to buy the stuff.What I do to get other people in is I buy for all my friends
and family one ounce pure silver coin for their birthday!!It really works better then
endless story's about how good investment they are.Once they hold the real thing
in their hand,it looks like you awake a strong primal feeling inside of them and they
want(to know) more of it.I like the lunar II serie from perth mint so I can give
all of them a different coin related to their year of birth.
That's a great idea, buying friends or family some PMs to get them interested.
Yet another proof of the power of giving!
No one disputes that some gold stashed away is a great idea -- but it's always a question of how much. Having more than something more than under 10 per cent of total assets in gold is a stretch, it seems to me.
Depends on when it was bought.
During the runup from 2001, it's been a solid investment.
Bought before that, even better.
In normal times 10%. In inflationary times 20%. In times of great uncertainty, fear of wars, potential unrest, broken central banks with hyperinflation 30% or more.
Think about this way.
if 100k of savings 30k in physical gold 70k in USD.
If the USD purchasing power falls 50%, the gold price will normally double. However, fear will make gold price overshoot 120% to 140%. Hence your total purchasing power will be 35k in USD and at least 70k in gold.
Safe enough.
For the super conservatives, cynics and those who have experience currency collapses, like my family twice, you can go 50% to 70%
The thought here is that if you are proven to be wrong, then that means that good times are here again and not much to worry. Cash will be flowing again and if your gold value is lesser, so what?
Insurance fees!
Perfect !
If you don't own Gold and Silver how will you buy the latest armor and weapons?
While I own no gold, I can assure you fine folks that I will gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today.
Anyone?
Only if I can securitize your note and sell it off
Why certainly, my good friend.
Buying 20% of your offer if you can get him to sign a sub-prime note for a Margaritaville blender.
I'll rate it AAA+, if you pay me too..
Excellent! In that case, I'll gladly accept a large bag of burgers - cheese, mustard and pickle, please.
Some thoughts on gold (fairly long entry, too long to paste here) on my blog...
Black Swan just been given the green light.
Saudi Arabia gives Israel clear skies to attack Iranian nuclear sites
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/middle_east/article7148555.ece
Edit: Apologies, link already posted.
War in the Mid-east not a black swan--entirely predictable over time.
In the 1930's money was backed by... GOLD.
The defense rests your honor... next case.
Gold stocks collapsed in the 1930s crisis.
Are you sure about that?
http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=144&mn=10685&pt=msg&mid=6141711
I object on the grounds that it's devestating to that persons arguement.
Take your head out of your ass EQ. Homestake up 7 times. Looks like you didn't even bother to read Embry's article.
HAHAHAHA. That is the argument always pointed to by gold bulls. The lone stock of Homestake Mining. Can you even explain the circumstances around why Homestake rose while all other mining stocks imploded? This selective reasoning is flawed. But, then most all of the comments on here are always flawed.
Okay EQ, You tell me why Goldcorp, Agnico Eagle, Kinross, Yamana, Iamgold, Newmont, etc... will do poorly as gold prices ramp up? I've held most of these for ten years through all kinds of ups and downs. Buy and hold has worked. So what else can you say about Embry's article? Yeah, I thought so. You've got nothing but a bullshit hand when it comes to talking about gold.
The following link cites data in regards to both Homestake Mining, which was the USA's largest gold mining corporation, and Dome Mines, Canada's largest gold "miner".
A quote:
"When the stock market crashed in 1929, gold stocks were part of the general wreckage (sound familiar?). The market then rallied and recovered almost 50% of its losses by April 1930, with gold shares again tagging along. It’s what happened next that gives us our first clue about deflation’s effect.
When the bear market resumed in the summer of 1930, all securities sold off again – except gold stocks. Gold shares stayed basically flat until early 1931, when they boarded the elevator and headed for the penthouse."
Homestake Minings Gains, '29 to '33 ~470%
Dome Mines Gains, '29 to '333 ~ 560%
http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/gold-stocks-in-a-depression/