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John Mauldin Summarizes His Market Outlook

Tyler Durden's picture


For those too crippled by ADHD to read John Mauldin's weekly newsletter, whose latest piece focuses on such a once important topic as market timing (which is now completely irrelevant as the Fed gives all the daily green light to BTFD), here is the Texan on Bloomberg TV, recapping his views, all mostly quite hedged, on markets and the economy in 2011.


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Mon, 12/27/2010 - 14:21 | 831805 jimgcpa
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Maudlin doesn't know shit from shineola.  His weekly diatribes are completely worthless.  

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 14:24 | 831814 Phineas Gage
Phineas Gage's picture

What makes his weekly letter worthless?  What makes a good letter to you?  Serious questions.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 14:34 | 831831 Paul Bogdanich
Paul Bogdanich's picture

It has been my impression that Maudlin talks a lot about personalities and the big-shots he hangs around with at exotic foreign retreats rather than much serious analysis.  For example, in the way of an overarching framework to put the markets in a larger perspective he offers none.  All he does is say this guy says this and that guy says that.  Compare this to say Zero Hedge where they clearly believe that the actions of the Fed control the broader market behavior and advocate that things should be viewed in that broader context.     

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 14:50 | 831861 Phineas Gage
Phineas Gage's picture

Don't know if I agree, but at least you're not pulling that out of nowhere.  I don't think his newsletter is trying to convert anyone.  He has a very large and broad audience, he knows this, and that is who he is speaking to.  I don't think people should read him expecting cutting-edge commentary.  That said, I think a lot of the posters here could gain some benefit from reading him.  He presents and explains useful economic ideas in fairly simple and straightforward ways. 

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 18:05 | 832281 Oquities
Oquities's picture

agreed. not much actionable information from mauldin.  "i'll be jetting to cancun for a fishing trip with my good friend albert einstein then networking with other namedroppers who collect big-ass fees for managing opm.  now let me leave you with some thoughts from the latest opinions of other butt-buddies of mine"   no wonder he gives that shit away free.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 14:40 | 831840 I need more cowbell
I need more cowbell's picture

I used to read him a lot, he seemed balanced. Now, he seems to be just another guy who continues to believe ( I don't know, normalcy bias ) we will muddle through.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 14:52 | 831867 Phineas Gage
Phineas Gage's picture

I think he is balanced still.  He has stuck with the muddle-through theme for years - prior to 2008 even.  Maybe you have moved beyond his views and no loner agree with them.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 16:53 | 832119 Hat Trick
Hat Trick's picture

I agree. I've read him for at least that long, and he has been very consistent. Do I completely agree with him? No..I think we may be in for worse than "muddle through" (though maybe not quite as bad as other posters may think ~ normalcy bias works both ways!)...but that doesn't mean his newsletter is "worthless"! Technical? No. Some valuable insights and trends? Yes.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 23:03 | 832691 Thomas
Thomas's picture

The problem is that muddle through is such a non-committal concept. They muddled throughthe Great Depression.

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 09:42 | 833058 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Sure youre not just crippled from ADHD like most of video game brain america?

Wed, 12/29/2010 - 02:44 | 835200 eatandtravel
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I agree.  The guy adds nothing.  You could get more info from Youtube.

The way he speak annoys the heck out of me.


Mon, 12/27/2010 - 14:43 | 831809 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

If We The People want normalized markets, and job creation EVER to begin again in the forseeable future, they need MEN to capture the pirates, and summarily bring justice for their crimes against Western Civilization.

The World Needs Men


"This videotape shows Russian Navy commandos on a Somalian pirate ship shortly after the pirates had captured a Russian oil tanker.

The Euro Union navy that patrols these waters would not interfere because they feared there could be casualties.

The soldiers freed their compatriots and the tanker. The Russian Navy Commandos moved the pirates back to their own pirate ship, searched the pirate ship for weapons and explosives, and then they left the ship and exploded it with all remaining pirates hand-cuffed to it.

The commandos sank the pirate ship along with the pirates and without any court proceedings, lawyers etc. That is, they used the anti-piracy laws of the 18th and 19th centuries where the captain of the rescuing ship has the right to decide what to do with the pirates. Usually, they were hanged.

I would think from now on, Russian ships will not be targets for Somalian pirates.

(Back in the day, the USA knew how to deal with these situations, as well- prior to the dawn of political correctness.)"

The Bankster Gangsters are no different than these "dirt-scratching savages", just more evolved and well dressed.

 "Don't fire until you see the whites of their eyes!"~ William Prescott, Battle of Bunker Hill

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 14:49 | 831856 cossack55
cossack55's picture

Do you think those Russians would play football in 5" of snow?

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 14:50 | 831860 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

Does Barry wear panties?

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 17:21 | 832187 Common_Cents22
Common_Cents22's picture

Making the Vikings wait 2 more days for their philly punishment is undue torture. they should have let them play.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 14:51 | 831862 Bananamerican
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Quixotic, forgive me, but in general you sound like a NSA internet rabble rouser....



Mon, 12/27/2010 - 14:58 | 831868 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

Did you notice the "We The People" part?

Do you think those Russian Commandos were a group of anarchists, or were they acting on behalf of their nation?

And yes, you're forgiven...I understand that most of you are effeminate due to pub-lick edumakation and a matriachal culture.

WE hold these Truths to be self-evident, that all Men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness -- That to secure these Rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just Powers from the Consent of the Governed, that whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these Ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its Foundation on such Principles, and organizing its Powers in such Form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness.


It's WAY past time for MEN to organize and discuss the future of the USofA, without the (D) & (R) Banana Republick Kleptocrats...

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 15:01 | 831877 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

Douchinger had a guy named "Downrange" who served a similar purpose on TF.

He'd say things like, "Yeeeahhh, WE need to TAKE SOME PEOPLE OUT!!" this, after KD acknowledged TF was monitored by .gov spooks.

I say you're either NSA or a macho douchebag...or 12 year old girl (because on the Internet, everyone is a 12 year old girl)

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 15:54 | 831886 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

I never said "WE need to TAKE SOME PEOPLE OUT!!", I said in effect that "We The People need MEN".

Although, as the Somali video represents, when faced with Greed, Avarice and Guile, there is sometimes no other recourse than eliminating a few EVIL fucks...

And I guess from your cowardly response that means I can count you out - But hey, don't feel bad I'm not even sure there are enough MEN left to make a "drop in the bucket."

But, as an eternal optimist, and a double member of the Sons of the Revolution, I'm still hoping...

This is for the rest of you effeminate rabble:

"If you love wealth more than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, depart from us in peace. We ask not your counsel nor your arms. Crouch down and lick the hand that feeds you. May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen." ~ Samuel Adams


For those that want to see how a real MAN conducts himself, check-out what Bill Black said today on Bloomberg (be sure to listen to the whole enchilada when it's posted):

No 'common' folk are left in the market because it's all a fraudulent, rigged casino. Investors might come back if we started to get some prosecutions.

Muni bond market is set to implode. This is a good, solid, conservative-Republican investment market that is about to be demolished. Yet another victim to the frauds in the broader market.


G*@ Damn!  I'd give anything to see Bill Black as President in 2012~

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 21:09 | 832520 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture


"G*@ Damn!  I'd give anything to see Bill Black as President in 2012~ ..."

Kinda' like "Why wasn't Chesty Puller ever up for Commandant?"

Aside from health reasons, probably that he'd have told Congress to "GO Flock THEMSELVES!"

- Ned

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 16:03 | 832015 Fearless Rick
Fearless Rick's picture

I understand that most of you are effeminate due to pub-lick edumakation and a matriachal culture.


How about you just kiss my effeminate-not ass, since I went to Catholic schools and never married, huh? Otherwise, you can just plain GFY. My state of mind dictates "every man for himself" which means don't touch my nuts or my PMs, less you wanna go through the rest of your pitiful, short life with one less testicle, ass-donkey.

Now, as far as "organizing" and "discussing" the future of the USA, we've been doing that just fine without you. So crawl back under the rock and open a can of beans. If you think you have something to add, feel free, but I'm not one for meetups or any kind of organization at this point. I gots mine, you gots your'n. I don't participate in voting, polling or any other so-called "democratic" initiatives.

Kindly refrain from insulting many of us and our collective intelligence with "organizing," that leads inevitably to getting killed by the police.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 16:16 | 832027 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

Kindly refrain from insulting many of us and our collective intelligence with "organizing," that leads inevitably to getting killed by the police.


So, you think eventually they're gonna roundup and execute the Tea Partiers too?

Cause that's where your pathetic logic leads...coward.

Sheeple like you don't deserve to live in this once great Democratic Republic that MEN fought to establish, defend and preserve!

P.S.  "Catholic schools" = Cult mind control in my book, so don't look for any brownie buttons from this "patriot".

"Associate yourself with men of good quality if you esteem your own reputation for 'tis better to be alone than in bad company...Guard against the impostures of pretended patriotism." ~ George Washington

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 16:19 | 832050 Fearless Rick
Fearless Rick's picture

OK, fucktard, I'll play your stupid game.

Just what is it you're after. What do you want, and what do you want from the rest of us? What sort of response would satisfy your inner primate, your urge to overthrow and lead us to a better tomorrow. Spit it out, or shut the fuck up.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 16:52 | 832087 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

Well, since you asked so politely, I will renumerate my position:

A>  That this country was established under NATURAL law, as detailed in the Declaration of Independence, but that since 1933 the USofA has operated under Emergency Powers, which has manifested in a political kleptocracy that is fed by the continuation of powers they NEVER should have exercised, not the least of which is creating a Fiat Debt Ponzi economy.

B>  That due to numerous factors, most "MEN" are in fact adult children with -0- sense of honor, self-worth or sense of duty to PROTECT the American Experiment from parasitical forces that now threaten its very existance.

C>  That if enough American MEN educated themselves about the Rule of Law established with the USofA's founding document, the Declaration of Independence, and start organizing against the out-of-control (D) & (R) Banana Republik Kleptocrats, perhaps, just perhaps, We could realize the suspension of Emergency Powers and RESTORE the Rule of NATURAL Law (see below)...PERHAPS without firing a single shot "heard round' the world".


"The state of nature has a law of nature to govern it, which obliges every one: and reason, which is that law, teaches all mankind, who will but consult it, that being all equal and independent, no one ought to harm another in his life, health, liberty, or possessions"  ~ John Locke 1690


“Whenever the legislators endeavor to take away and destroy the property of the people, or to reduce them to slavery under arbitrary power, they put themselves into a state of war with the people, who are thereupon absolved from any further obedience.” ~ John Locke 1690

P.S. Numbnuts; Ol' Thomas Jefferson didn't create the most significant part of the Declaration of Independence on his own, out-of-thin-air, and without LEGAL precedent.


Mon, 12/27/2010 - 16:54 | 832122 Fearless Rick
Fearless Rick's picture

OK, Quixotic, just for the record, I was studying John Locke in the early 70s, so your quotes are nothing new to me.

Let's go over your ABCs.

A. 1933? FDR. OK, I'll give you that one, just to continue the argument.

B. OK, we "Men" are all worthless and haven't protected the Union and the constitution sufficiently, which I guess includes all the WWII vets, writers of all political persuasions who seek solutions to oligarchies and anyone who buys PMs as a hedge against fiat. So, sure, we have failed.

C. Now, here's where we diverge. I love the constitution, declaration of independence, bill of rights, rule of law and all that goes with it. Sadly, most of the people in this country, and especially the politicians, have forgotten it or purposely discarded all of it toward a furtherance of their own aims. You think organizing is a good idea, and maybe it is. But, I've got to tell you, as soon as you start organizing, the opposition will infiltrate and ruin your good intentions. For my part, I don't vote, basically because it's all rigged (check out the work on if you think I'm kidding), I agree that the Ds and the Rs are really all the same and there's corruption everywhere.

If you would stop harassing everybody and elucidate your ideas on HOW to organize and HOW to take back the nation without firing a shot, I'd fight right alongside you, maybe even in front of you. The people commenting here are neither cowards nor fools and you will be received much better if you eschew the rhetoric the flowery "patriotic" posts and just get on with your plans. Spell it out.

You keep saying we need to organize, so start organizing. Put down a platform for reform and hash it out here. I'm sure you'll find more than enough "Men" and maybe even some courageous and intelligent WOMEN.

OK, Gringo?

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 17:26 | 832152 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

How can we organize if we don't agree on a basic premise to found "Our" organization on?

Where are the MEN of the type that fought died to protect us from the Axis Powers in WWII?

Where are the MEN that signed the Declaration of Independence?

Where is the New Age of Reason?

Things have gotten so far out-of-control, so far from the "original" premise, perhaps we could keep it simple and just agree on "Self .GOV under Natural Law" as the basis.

Wouldn't that be enough?

Oh, seeing that ZH has one of the daily largest viewership stats on the .NET, wouldn't this be a good place to start?

People like Denninger are failing, and have failed, because they chase their tails without end, creating a sea of noise, without solution and mostly for self-aggrandizement.  His stats are 1/20 of ZH and falling quickly...

And seeing that movements like the Tea Party were toast from the beginning, because they're populated by ignorant people that, although they have similar goals to restore the Republic, are too easily hoodwinked into trusting the (R) & (D) Kleptocrats, thus enabling the fraud further...

Simple solutions are the bane of criminals, because it exposes them easily; Isn't it time to chose the future, while we can?

I'm in NYC if anyone would like to meet, it can start if with 2 if necessary.

Fraunces Tavern?

Anyone that wants to understand what I'm saying, my suggestion is studying the work of one Dr. Eugene Schroder, who woke me up back in 1994.

For the record, I have been part of an organization that was founded under this very cause, Dr. Schroder's Common Law Grand Jury, but abandoned the effort back in 1997 as I could see the futility in that era - Are we close enough for people to get "it" yet?

P.S.  The country established by the Declaration of Independence was NOT reliant on Color, Creed or Religion.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 18:02 | 832279 Fearless Rick
Fearless Rick's picture

Now, let's note that I didn't disagree with anything. I even said I'd go along for sake of argument.

I don't live in NYC, but I've been to Fraunces Tavern and hoisted a few, back somewhere in the blur of 1977-79, when I lived in Manhattan.

I checked your link, agree - for the sake of argument - and then found this link:

No news about it reopening.

I also noted that it Fraunces was owned by the Sons of the Revolution in the State of New York.

So, I can't make it to Fraunces, even if it is open. Further, unless you are planning something extreme - which most of the people here won't cotton to - why can't you lay out your plans in the comments or on a web site?

My conclusion is that you like to rile people up, nothing wrong with that, but you don't seem to have anything with which to back it up, other than your "call to arms" for "MEN."

You're either a plant, a wanker, a kid out of school for Christmas vacation, a troll or a combination of all of the above. You could be a true patriot, but you're leaving some of us with serious reasons to doubt you.

Again, I ask you to spell out your plans in public view, put a hold on the rhetoric and patriotism, and lay down your plans. Otherwise, comment as you will, but try learning from others. There are many a good mind here on ZH.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 19:28 | 832350 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

Never made a "call to arms", that would indeed be premature, and most likely unnecessary (as there's nothing to fight for, unless a basic understanding was reached and no other solution).

And obviously you're just arguing for argument's sake, either that or you're obtuse; I have cleary stated my idea is for MEN to organize with the express intention to achieve suspension of Emergency Powers and to restore the Rule of Natural Law to the USofA.

If this objective was reached not only would a "smaller" .GOV be realized, but ALL the fraud we're suffering under today would simply vanish (e.g. Looting of the U$ Treasury).

I know it's a serious long shot, bringing together MEN enmasse to achieve such a simple plan, but occassionally I throw it out there, to gauge a response - Once again, I see that it is not yet time.

Then again, perhaps it will never be "that" time again , and it happened as a fluke during a brief period in the history of mankind...

Anyways, hope you enjoy the evolving madness and that one day you'll reflect upon our lil' discussion.

The three aims of the tyrant(s) are:

1>  The humiliation of his subjects; he knows that a mean-spirited man will not conspire against anybody.

2>  The creation of mistrust among them; for a tyrant is not to be overthrown until men begin to have confidence in one another -- and this is the reason why tyrants are at war with the good; they are under the idea that their power is endangered by them, not only because they will not be ruled despotically, but also because they are too loyal to one another and to other men, and do not inform against one another or against other men.

3>  The tyrant desires that all his subjects (i.e. men) shall be incapable of action, for no one attempts what is impossible and they will not attempt to overthrow a tyranny if they are powerless.


"Fear is the foundation of most governments; but it is so sordid and brutal a passion, and renders men in whose breasts it predominates so stupid and miserable, that Americans will not be likely to approve of any political institution which is founded on it."  ~ John Adams

Guess ol' John never imagined the last several generations of "Americans"...

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 15:08 | 831890 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture

"The Russian Navy Commandos moved the pirates back to their own pirate ship, searched the pirate ship for weapons and explosives, and then they left the ship and exploded it with all remaining pirates hand-cuffed to it."


Oh my, where is the outrage!?  Not.  Good for them.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 15:16 | 831902 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

THAT, is how MEN deal with pirates.

You make their game too costly for them to play it.

Anything else is just whistling past the graveyard...

"Those who give up essential liberties for temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety." - Benjamin Franklin


"Firearms are second only to the Constitution in importance; they are the peoples' liberty's teeth." ~ George Washington


Stop the looting!

Start Prosecuting!

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 15:35 | 831945 Village Idiot
Village Idiot's picture


Mon, 12/27/2010 - 21:16 | 832530 New_Meat
New_Meat's picture

Not-an: good to see you.

Of course, they took all of the valuable materials, including the valuable "pirates" and sunk the rest.  Interesting negotiations going on in my view.

- Ned

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 14:23 | 831810 skyr191
skyr191's picture

Nice vid.


But Tyler, mind lightening up on the derogatory ADHD statements.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 14:40 | 831842 I need more cowbell
I need more cowbell's picture

Yeh Tyler lay off all the new made-up maladies of the 20th and 21st centuries. Big Pharma gotta eat too

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 15:17 | 831904 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Gotta have a diagnosis to legally take cocaine!

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 15:25 | 831923 skyr191
skyr191's picture

cocaine to those that dont have it, a stabilizer for those that do.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 15:56 | 832000 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Molecularly many of these meds are one or two links off from being cocaine, IOW almost the same compound. My son has a diagnosis. It is like being brought out of a fog for him. He can make the same grades, but it is all his effort and no time for anything else, vs. being able to make the grades and do more. I have a great mal-ease about it though. He wants to perform well, would flip if I decided to stop the medication, but am I stealing his peace and enabling the system to sink it's claws into him by instilling these values? Performance and efficiency is not all there is to life.

Like Feds, Meds are another intervention with consequences.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 16:00 | 832007 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

When you make a deal with the Devil, YOU are the unintended consequence...

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 17:03 | 832146 SteveNYC
SteveNYC's picture

If the meds are doing more good than harm, I would suggest maintaining their usage to get your son through what may prove to be a temporary period (hormonal, dietary, environmental, or emotional). Don't treat the meds as a "solution" though, treat them more like a "bridge". Use this period to get to the bottom of WHY he got this diagnosis (there is always a reason outside of "he was born like that", always). See a dietician, get his hormones checked, checked for allergies (seasonal and food), see a shrink etc. Find the root cause, and work on it.

Then, the need for meds to stabilise him may dissipate.

I wish you the best MsCreant.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 19:18 | 832370 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Thank you SteveNYC. That was genuinely useful. I will follow up.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 16:56 | 832133 ConfederateH
ConfederateH's picture

A friend of mine works for Roche.  He says they make their profits harvesting tumors in the US...

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 14:23 | 831811 malagawatch
malagawatch's picture

I know somebody who knows somebody who is buying or selling?! You will have bears and bulls in 2011 = wtf is he talking about? I did not know markets go up and down?!?!?!?

Dumb money is buying right know = I am dumber I let somebody buy for me!!!!!

What kind of a guy is he????

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 14:27 | 831819 Confused
Confused's picture

Haha, thanks, I was afraid I was missing something. This video makes him look totally crazy. 

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 19:01 | 832351 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

worse. irrelevant.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 14:24 | 831812 sodbuster
sodbuster's picture

BTFD, bitchez!

There! Got that out of the way!

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 14:26 | 831816 Dollar Bill Hiccup
Dollar Bill Hiccup's picture

Volatility on the SPY keeps falling, SPY puts are fairly cheap. Oh, I forgot. Don't worry, be happy.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 14:47 | 831854 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

S&P flat-to-up-slilghtly, vix up 1.3.  this divergence is telling, IMO.

Jan 42 calls on VXX; for the test of previous S&P top @ 1220.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 14:25 | 831817 Bloodstool
Bloodstool's picture

I've read this clown's articles before.  But, this is the first time I've heard him speak.  Now I know why I thought his articles were so worthless.  This particle piece of tripe, in a nutshell, states that traders should do well in 2010 because the market will go up and down.  Talk about prescient... Give this guy a cyanide-laced bonbon to suck on.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 14:27 | 831818 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"....all mostly quite hedged..." would be an understatement. Mauldin seemed to be blowing from side to side in the verbal wind.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 14:27 | 831821 wiskeyrunner
wiskeyrunner's picture

Hey look the stock indexes are green just in time for lunch crowd. No such thing as a down stock market. Buy the dips make free money. Zero risk on the long side in this rigged up market.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 14:49 | 831858 ZeroPower
ZeroPower's picture

Of course buy the dips, what else? Its a joke the eminis actually opened up around the 46 level. Nice entry point sure, but also an even better way to lure shorts in..

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 15:06 | 831888 HarryWanger
HarryWanger's picture

AAPL got gobbled up early on a slight pullback. Once holiday sales come out for AAPL it will quickly move through 350. Keep grabbing this on any minor pull backs.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 14:29 | 831824 Stanley Lord
Stanley Lord's picture

Scarlet FU is hot, me likey

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 14:32 | 831826 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

Dammit, not said with enough conviction to say that Mauldin is Maudlin ....

What good are these analysts anyway?


Mon, 12/27/2010 - 14:34 | 831827 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

I read John's weekly newsletter and he is exhaustingly optimistic.

I suppose that is the way to be and it seems to work for him.

He is an excellent writer and non-polemic, balanced, and backs his observations up with facts and other viewpoints.  He seems to do very well which always helps one to be optimistic.

I, however, have trouble being optimistic about the economy when I see Federal and Municipal deficits and no improvement in employment (not to mention the loss of the rule of law and many basic rights along with morals, ethics, and common sense).

Perhaps things have always been this way; perhaps this time is different.

I don't think America has been here before though.

There will either be a small correction and a muddle through, or an "exogenous" event combined with some "endogonous" events that collapse the system.

My money is on stagflation and partial collapse but I could still muddle through.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 16:23 | 832066 Windemup
Windemup's picture

America has never before seen a supply constraint like the one that is setting up in Oil.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 14:34 | 831829 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Got AIG ?

I'm up 20% in 2 weeks already ... gold like returns. Ride the wave, heavy volume for weeks.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 14:39 | 831837 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

That would kind of be like whoring my Sister out for $20 a pop; to each their own.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 14:49 | 831848 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Well I told you about US Steel 35% ago. Try ZEUS, I've been whoring that stock for 2 weeks also another steel play. The midwest is loaded with orders cat,joy global,bucyrus, auto's. Olympic Steel (zeus just started to break out....) will be up big come Q2 of next year.

RAS,PRU also ready for liftoff.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 14:50 | 831863 Internet Tough Guy
Internet Tough Guy's picture

I prefer gold-like returns in gold. Good luck with the pump n dumps.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 16:00 | 832006 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

"Returns" here is an interesting word, as in "return what has been stolen by the Feds through inflation."

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 16:06 | 832018 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

When these playas use the word "Returns", they actually mean extracting gains (above and beyond inflation) by participating in the Fiat Debt Ponzi scheme.

As has been proven by recent history, this is a charade that the playas ALWAYS lose in the end.

There are solutions, to restore economic order, but cowards always take what is perceived as the path of least resistance.

*Waves at Denninger and his sock puppet Bezzle*

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 14:58 | 831873 jimgcpa
jimgcpa's picture

Would $30 be enough?  

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 14:48 | 831853 mynhair
mynhair's picture

20%, big whoop.  Check AVL, sucker!

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 14:52 | 831865 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

VXX Jan 42 calls up 25% since Friday.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 15:03 | 831880 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

I hope to enter that world some day for now its training at option monsters ... Lol'

Wish I could have made my US Steel bet that way .... 

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 15:11 | 831895 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

It's not so strange a land...options are, however, "zero-sum" -- if you win, someone else has lost.  it's fighting on the front-lines.  Entry and exit points are crucial, and don't pay the offer. get filled mid-spread.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 15:13 | 831899 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

Thanks for the info -

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 15:18 | 831906 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

I saw your call on Steel, nice.  take a look at ZINC (symbol), let me know what you think.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 15:23 | 831918 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

IF We The People want real CHANGE, the best thing We can do is stop playing the Financial Piracy game.

If you're sick of the rigged fiat fed equity/bond bubble, the BEST response at present time is to buy PMs.

*Starve the Beast*

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 15:31 | 831931 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

I have--I hold physical (gold and siver) for 15% of my liquidity, so I can buy food when the shtf.  But I need to earn a living while I don't have to spend the pm.  I have heard that there is a new currency cropping up in the berkshires area of massachussetts.  Locals and local merchants simply going it on their own.  I live in NYC.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 15:42 | 831963 downrodeo
downrodeo's picture

Yeah! Berkshares! I like the concept of ditching the FNRs for something else, anything else. Still, it doesn't solve anything. It is still tied to the dollar. It isn't backed by anything tangible and is just another fiat at the end of the day. Baby steps though, I guess. At the very least, it should get a few people thinking about the nature of money, and that is good in my opinion.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 15:53 | 831992 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

yes, I agree.  I wonder if they could create a local bank to act as a "central bank", back it with gold, do away with the dollar peg.  I imagine that a revaluation could occur if local residents feel less inclined to accept FRN, or perhaps even a floating exchange rate.  might be a good business idea...

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 16:01 | 832002 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

Actually, at present time, one MUST accept FRNs for payment of debt.

But that doesn't mean DEBT can't be paid with other vehicles of payment.

It's actually quite easy to derail the fiat-ponzi train, it just requires enough MEN to start using payment vehicles that ARE NOT FRNs - Liquidity is a bitch when you don't have it.

As long as there is a United States of America, there is hope!

Unfortunately, We're a hair's breadth away from the disolution of that hope...

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 15:34 | 831942 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture


Its in my blood now. I studied macro/doomer/shadow credit news since 2002. Now all that reading/studying is helping me trade. I know about sudden stops, shadow this, abyss that, the can has been kicked again. LTCM,Asia banks,USSR,Enron,Madoff,Lehman,2007 .... They always find a way to rollover/write down/can kick ...


Mon, 12/27/2010 - 15:44 | 831965 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

May your chains rest lightly upon you and may posterity forget that you were our countryman...

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 16:15 | 832039 Fearless Rick
Fearless Rick's picture

I junked you NOT for being a caricature of a freedom fighter and calling out other "MEN" and boasting about your machismo, but for doing so with such persistence.

It has turned you into nothing more than wasted space, and there's more than enough of that to go around.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 16:21 | 832057 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

As you can see, I have not even bothered to "junk" you, because that truly is "a waste of space".

I hope that "junking" me help feed your sense of being "Fearless", because I'd rather face you straight-up in discussion than resort to such cowardly tactics...

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 16:35 | 832092 Fearless Rick
Fearless Rick's picture

Hey, dickhead, engaging in "ad hominem" attacks doesn't enhance your credibility one iota. As far as I'm concerned, you have nothing to add to the discussion except continued reiteration of what "man" you are.

I'm afraid I don't share in your delusion. Sorry about that. Move on.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 16:51 | 832115 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

Don't sweat any of it.  Especially on my account, though i do appreciate your having my back. We are all here for different reasons.  I hope to learn from some here and stay on top of new ideas/views and breaking news.  I'll admit that I don't know why someone with a different agenda would bother hanging around on a site like this.  Perhaps searching for a little community?  For my part, I need to make money, and have paid plenty of tuition over 25 years of trading, so I roll with it. Up, down, or sideways.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 16:56 | 832131 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

Au contraire mon petit mouton, I'm just returning in kind the manner of communication YOU chose.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 20:39 | 832484 John_Coltrane
John_Coltrane's picture

Hey, is that the former "company" that once traded at $1200 (July '08) than fell to $6 (Feb '09) recovered to $56 (Sept '09) and now has recovered to $60?.  Yeah, I sort of recall buying puts on that one in '08.  Might have done quite well, maybe even better than 20%, but not a good as LEH puts, but I can't remember.  Anyway, you got a target of around $1200?  Only 2 orders of magnitude or so to go!

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 14:41 | 831844 doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

actually better than gold.  "must have been a nothing-burger business those AIG'ers."  still no fight about "pink man! pink man!  ha,ha...charade you are...

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 19:32 | 832386 Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

Big man, pig man...

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 14:48 | 831852 PeterSchump
PeterSchump's picture

Correlation = 1 across all traded asset classes again.  When that stops, then I will believe.


Mon, 12/27/2010 - 14:49 | 831859 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

BTFD certainly worked on V

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 14:58 | 831874 gringo28
gringo28's picture

Mauldin is just a ditributor for managed futures managers. He gets a piece of every referral and writes his newsletter to draw in more retail. His whole biz is about taking small retail money. His newsletter is at best, entertaining, general market fluff.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 14:57 | 831875 New Revolution
New Revolution's picture

What is going on is exactly what occurred from 1932 to 1939.    World trade was down post 1929 due to the collapse of the phony gold standard of the British Pound and Europe that the very homosexual NY Fed Governor Ben Strong, in co-operation with his lover, Montagu Norman, CEO of the Bank of England, concocted (no pun intended) against the wishes of the German's and French and without the knowledge of Congress or most of the rest of the members of America's central bank (FED).   That crushed the stockmarket until the bottom in July of 1932 which popped with FDR's election, then worked sideways as FDR and the FED poured money into the markets leading the stockmarket to take off in 1935 allowing it to rise consistently (buy the fucking dips) until the pre-Keynsian minded FED Chairman Eccles single-handedly decided the banks should commit to a 100% increase in reserve requirements overnight and trashed the stockmarkets all over again.

So you see, we've been exactly here before and you can buy the fucking dips until either the Euro goes completely south (eg failure of phony gold standard in Europe) or B. Baranke decides that inflation is getting out of control because his puppet masters tell him he's looking at the wrong inflation indicators and their all short.  At that point he'll single-handedly decide to flip the switch and does what he's told and either raises interest rates or reserve requirements or both.

Sure it's rigged and the Kleptocracy elite that run America have such total tyrannicaly control that they don't even know they're completely out of control and driving the Nation to bankruptcy which is what history calls a Revolution.  

This leaves us having to trade from the long side, move up stops and keep an eye on major indicators to know when the elite are getting short and saddle up along side them, ride it down while organizing America and beating hell out of them all at the polling booth and take over the Congress.   

And this all before the end of 2012.  Then really go after the bastards with fire, tar and posts. 

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 15:00 | 831878 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

you know, it would be great if just one of these asshole "commentators" would speak the truth. anyone watching the market as closely as they say they do, knows exactly what is going on, and why the market is moving to the sky.....

so what's the game here? they are shepherding as many as they can into the slaughter pens? What happens O mighty Mauldin when the Fed stops buying? I'm watching BAC today, they are jacking it as high as they can....and the damn bank is BROKE.....but hey, maybe we can unload this crap on the that what this guy is trying to do? help the banks take the peasantry for what little it has left after this Fed asset striping operation?

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 15:07 | 831882 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

Check Grantham's views on the Market and the Fed 

G's got it right.  His answer to  'What happens when...?" is that all the vapor in manipulated value gets paid back--with interest.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 17:00 | 832142 Fearless Rick
Fearless Rick's picture

Oh, man, am I with you on BAC. That POS is overvalued at 50 cents. What's the PE on it now that it's 13 and change, 120?

BAC is the #1 enemy of the people, followed closely by Goddamn Sacks, JP Morgue, Wells-Fucko and CitiBoobs.

Break up the GANG of FIVE and freedom will be restored, along with financial sanity and maybe even some sense of stability.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 17:18 | 832180 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

Bring back Glass-Steagall?  or something more draconian?

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 17:29 | 832200 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

Short of a complete .GOV reset, returning to the *normal* of the past will only result in us returning to the present again, perhaps even jumping directly into the future, as intended by the Moneyed Oligarchy.

Whatever that is...


Mon, 12/27/2010 - 15:03 | 831879 no cnbc cretin
no cnbc cretin's picture

It was like something you see on CNBC.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 15:15 | 831903 Captain Kink
Captain Kink's picture

LOL.  nice, in light of your name on ZH...

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 15:04 | 831883 Mark Medinnus
Mark Medinnus's picture

He's an easy, if unhelpful, read.  I tried ending my subscription to Maudlin's free newsletter, but failed, twice.  He's an easy, if unhelpful, read.  I tried ending my subscription to Maudlin's free newsletter, but failed, twice.   

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 15:06 | 831889 haskelslocal
haskelslocal's picture

For 2011 I resolove that ZeroHedge refrain from insulting readers by saying things like "for those with ADHD". Don't post video's if you've got a tick about people having to read.

"Smart money vs. Dumb Money"? Really? An "expert" utilizing ego-driven, childish language while diverting attention from the fact that he babbles through the whole interview and pretends he's got a theory that doesn't paint both sides of the tape?

Clean up the mess Tyler. You're waning.     

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 15:28 | 831933 Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

For 2011 we resolve to have our readers pass a sense of humor captcha. It appears you will no longer have to worry about our waniness.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 15:38 | 831951 I need more cowbell
I need more cowbell's picture

Buh-by, now, buh-by.

And who the hell says " you're waning"?

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 20:23 | 832460 Hephasteus
Hephasteus's picture

Moon scientist say it all the time. You're waxing your waning. Those wacky wack moon scientists.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 16:26 | 832073 Ignatius J Reilly
Ignatius J Reilly's picture

Mauldin's articles are good.  He does not attempt the detail of Zero Hedge.  He is quite good at aggregating information from other important and informed opinions.  Read his last article about Smart Money and Dumb Money.  In it he quotes Hussman and TD.

For those of us whose time is limited, a good aggregate site is helpful.  Besides, how bad can the guy be if he recognizes the talents of Hussman and TD?

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 17:25 | 831910 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Market Analyst..Does one have to go to College for this? Just wondering. I didnt know you need schooling to say the market is going higher.I can almost hear Red from Shawshank say," Analyst? Thats a bullshit word, A politicians word"

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 15:21 | 831911 swissinv
swissinv's picture

Just had a big LOL today when watching CNBC and JPM analyst was surpsingly giving a good out look for PM. Then he's getting ask: "How about silver?" With guilty conscience he was eluding the question by recommending Paladium instead *hoho

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 15:47 | 831978 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Hey he mentioned Robo and Harry..."dumb money" chasing the momentum.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 15:47 | 831979 blindman
blindman's picture

The Federal Reserve is Laundering Money


what about bob?

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 15:49 | 831984 InExile
InExile's picture

Just another salesman.  He's optimistic that 2011 will be a great year, but he's hedged b/c he's cautious.  WTF.  Either way he can claim the right call and sell more news letters.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 16:20 | 832056 Windemup
Windemup's picture

Been reading his weekly newsletters for months now and find them bland. His expertise is  in being a derivitive of other experts. Can't find anything worthwile in what he has to say. Example. next year should be good barring anything disasterous like the Euro Union falling apart is like saying trip to florida should be good barring car does not get hit by truck. Duh.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 16:24 | 832068 huckman
huckman's picture

He called the right direction of ^tyx last April.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 16:31 | 832077 Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

This guy seems like another waffling idiot to me. He wants so bad to predict something, but has neither the information nor the balls to actually do so.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 16:35 | 832086 sbenard
sbenard's picture

I love John Mauldin's newsletter. His and John Hussman's are on my must-read list every week!

Thanks for posting the video also.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 16:43 | 832100 sbenard
sbenard's picture

Loved this today from one of Mauldin's friends, John Hussman:

"As for the notion that the Fed's targeted Treasury purchases have directly aided the economy, the argument requires bizarre logical gymnastics. It demands one to believe that although the purchases were intended to stimulate the economy by lowering rates, they have been successful without lowering them, and in fact by raising them, because the expectation of lower rates was so stimulative that it caused rates to rise, so that the higher rates can be taken as evidence that lowering rates without lowering them was a success. Oh, brother." 

His weekly market commentary is intense, but well contrived. Hussman Funds is lucky to have him!

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 16:48 | 832109 Quixotic_Not
Quixotic_Not's picture

Bill Black on Bloomberg:

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 16:55 | 832130 LudwigVon
LudwigVon's picture

For those too crippled by ADHD to read John Mauldin's weekly newsletter, whose latest piecefocuses on such a once important topic as market timing (which is now completely irrelevant as the Fed gives all the daily green light to BTFD), here is the Texan on Bloomberg TV, recapping his views, all mostly quite hedged, on markets and the economy in 2011.

This is lol funny !

Oh but Tyler, you saw his recent letter, he said he wanted to meet you !

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 17:01 | 832139 spartan117
spartan117's picture

I recall Mauldin calling for a major correction in gold right before it took off to $1400 when it was trading at $1200.  Mauldin's technical analysis is absolutely worthless. 

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 17:45 | 832244 antidisestablis...
antidisestablishmentarianismishness's picture

Anything less than a call for Armageddon will not be tolerated by ZH readership.  Doesn't matter if you're wrong, just make sure you're not optimistic.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 18:41 | 832330 Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

Sorry, no.

The reality of every major macro factor out there spells serious trouble, and they are all present at the same time! The resultant collective storm hasn't hit yet. Until it does everyone at ZH will be looking toward it's arrival which could be next week, or next year. It is hard to be optimistic in that climate.

Go ahead, put on your rose-colored glasses and hang it out there. Don't be surprised if something gets amputated while trading the dips.

Seriously, name the bright spot that actually means anything in the face of all the bearish indicators, go ahead...

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 23:25 | 832725 Terminus C
Terminus C's picture

Shiny, glittery gold and silver.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 17:56 | 832267 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

In one of his lastest newsletters Mauldin quoted Zero Hedge and said he wanted to meet Tyler Durden - thought he was an interesting fellow - hahahahhhaa

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 19:28 | 832296 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Not a money maker, fund sales and fee collector. Nice fellow, will be using much TD material lol.

From RR



From the 2009 low, the Dow rallied again, and as I write the dividend yield on the Dow is 2.56%. I go along with Charles Dow’s ’rule’ − a dividend yield under 3.5% is risky if not dangerous.

Based on history and based on the current dividend yield, stocks arenot now priced to produce profits over coming years.”


Not sure what systems he refers to.. once you have a system that works.. the market will change so the system becomes ineffective (ex. a sideways trading mkt= system useless ).  You Can use Div Yield and sentiment indicators as a valuation guide but the market is the system in the end.

The Economy and Stock Mkt are two different things.. 1932-37 was a Bull Mkt but the Economy was in a depression.


Mon, 12/27/2010 - 19:35 | 832390 mauistroker
mauistroker's picture

Seems like a bunch of ZHers read Hussman and Mauldin. Both good writers but to compare them is wrong. Read both for years although I quit Mauldin 18 month ago. John Hussman doesn't take a 'view' be it 'muddle through' or whatever. He deals with valuations and risk, period. I lost faith in Mr Mauldin's letter when he kept going with the 'muddle through' meme even as the entire basis for maintaining ones faith US markets (as a discounting mechanism, creative destruction, etc) was killed by the fuckwits at the Treasury, Fed and all branches of Government. What's happened is historic and ultimately disastrous. . Mauldin maintaining a 'muddle through' meme is retarded in this context - either he doesn't get it (which he doubt) or the parameters of his analyses are so broad as to be worthless. 

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 19:59 | 832410 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

Mkts were anything BUT muddle through the last few years.. unless a Crash followed by

a Major Mkt Rally is considered muddling.  Muddle through is probably the performance of the funds under mgmt.. Next up Wishy Washy.

Mon, 12/27/2010 - 23:20 | 832711 dumpster
dumpster's picture

mauldin says more with out saying anything than most letter writers


he hugs the edges, grabs the middle.   bows this way and that ,  

His gig is meetings ,, meet with the gang at smooze ville,,, the over 60 seniors at the lodge..

reads papers to the makers and shovers , 

wears neat suits,,, combs his hair just right .

runs to a problem then jumps over it ,,

we will muddle through.



Tue, 12/28/2010 - 21:25 | 834847 Scipionz
Scipionz's picture

Dow just reached 1.618 extension today....

Tue, 12/28/2010 - 22:57 | 834972 kiwidor
kiwidor's picture

I like the chick.  And I can think of a way to keep her mouth open and unable to speak. mmmmm.  right.

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