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John Noyce Is First With Technical USDJPY Observations: "If The Down Move Continues, 71.70 Is Next"
Goldman's John Noyce is the first FX technician with a proposed take on tonight's stunning developments. Keep in mind, he, like everyone else is in uncharted (pardon the pun) territory.
Quick JPY Charts - Wednesday 16th March 2011
There are two ways of arriving at a downside target of 77.75-77.56;
- An equal size pip drop from the June ’07 high to that from the August ’98 high to the November ’99 low would target 77.75
- The extension target of the triangle which formed from 1st November ’11 to 15th March comes in at 77.56
The market has been below this region intraday, but, the NY 5pm close was at 77.90 according to the EBS data we use. If we were able to stabilise around 77.75-77.56 you could argue that the last part of the drop was set in an extreme situation with poor liquidity etc. definitely something to watch closely. Not to say the call was for a move this sharp in the first place, but with the help of hindsight on two counts you could argue “target met”.
..If.. the down move does continue the next really clean level is the actual parallel channel support off the August ’98 high which comes in at 71.70 on the linear scale chart.
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Rulers, bitchezzzz!
+1 - world's wealthiest bank drawing conclusions a child can with a pencil and a ruler. Awesome!
Pencil and ruler?
I was thinking more along the lines of crayon...
Had to give the kid a pencil because Noyce had either eaten the crayons or they were lodged in his nasal passages.
What are you guys talking about?
Can you please buy a bb terminal and watch the real time quote?
JPY IS DROPPING STRAIGHT LINE IN THE PAST 1o minutes!!
I was watching it and didn't have time to visit zerohedge and now you guys are talking like end of world!!
BTFD--IN JPY case, sell the F POP!!
You guys need to be more american. Trust the fed, trust the BOJ!!
you posted before I got a chance; I haven't looked at recent prices; but I was going to say; this is very much like a squeeze on the shorts in futures; it doesn't last very long and countervailing forces come into play; disagreeing with Mr. whosis; here. Nice chart, but poor logic. the only thing you can do by trend following is get poor; you have to be a counter-puncher.
panic over - - Yen now 78.82
average Japanese people not allowed to take advantage of strong Yen.
busines as usual - move on
Too often, the opportunity knocks, but by the time you push back the chain, push back the bolt, unhook the two locks and shut off the burglar alarm, it's too late.Rita Coolidge
Blink - Yen now at 79.02
In honor of your chosen image oh_bama,
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2011/03/national-lampoon-timothy-d...
Ka-Boom!
Ka-boom is indeed the question....
Can we logically conclude that this has a serious chance of actually trip up the derivative world and the treasury market ?
I mean, these people have no power, the plants are a write-off.
I have around 60,000 in margin that I could blow on physical gold tomorrow if I knew...Because the Bank of Montreal got bailed out the first time, so my guess is it will go down this time too.
Aftershocks.
Ripples..... !! 1st bank holiday (unofficially).
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view/20110317-3258...
Tankzilla bitchez
All bets are off....
Everything is a bet, even not betting.
Too true, dollface. ;-)
Hey dere! Always good to see you posting. We need to have a GOM talk at some point. I don't trust the situation in many ways. What do you think?
Buy the dip and jump you fuckers!
JPY is around 14% of the Dollar Index . . . a down move to JPY-USD 71 would be enough to take 2-3 points off that. A lot of guys are also looking at 71-72 as a critical level for DXY as well before sending dollar holders into panic. I guess that leaves the Euro (58%) and where EUR goes from here.
Who would have thunk it.. An Earthquake in Japan causes the Yen to rise and the USD to fall below weekly support (trend line) causing a possible follow through and Dollar sell-off. Good grief..
Maybe we will hear some jaw boning about the PIIGS and lift the USD up.. :)
The VIX is finally starting to wake up and show some "life" . . . Days of Rage, PIIGS CDS and Japan . . . VIX now up to 29 but that still factors in a daily standard deviation of only 1.8% which seems low given what we are dealing with right now.
The VIX is finally starting to wake up and show some "life" . . . Days of Rage, PIIGS CDS and Japan . . . VIX now up to 29 but that still factors in a daily standard deviation of only 1.8% which seems low given what we are dealing with right now.
Short EUR/USD since Mar.4th. still in the money; may get stopped out; don't care; even money stop loss.
U$D slipping fast now - going to break 76 now...
The measured move targets are looking @ 65
65? You need some Juice!
I remember when it was 165.
i like it
Gotta love that DAILY chart! The swing /daily isn't my Mantra.
well, YC, for all the flying feces and rotary blades, the markets have been orderly. so far. lol. bonds up v. nicely which is good for POMO and japan holding our paper. right now, Y @ 79.4
michael can remember 165. i don't think he's older than i am, so he probably has more functioning neurons. let's talk 300, M!. Haha! only a few years ago, tho, 120-130, right?
people think that japan needs to sell bonds, but why can't they sell Treasuries into this and then dump the dollarz? hey, maybe that's non-intervention enuf? let uncle sugar intervene if he doesn't like it! and all those otherz, too.
the casino is hummin, now!
the whip is just crackin in the commodity pits! and i wonder if that is not where the dollar strength is coming from---the food and energy unwindz and the paper precious.
big machine. big freaking load of wash, too ZC. everything's chill until...the liquidity bitez the dill...
Yet, the chart is posted for reference. Can we move on to the next level of understanding? Charts are useless in uncharted territory.
"Beyond here thar be monsters."
Here be Dragons
This has got to be an aberation due to some carry trade or something. The Yen should be getting really weak here. The printing presses in Japan will turn radioactive before it's over
Only have to look at an AUDJPY chart to see the carry trade.
While the Japanese keep repatriating their funds this will continue. They have scary savings overseas. Old Mrs Watanabe serving some $DXY chicken tonight!
'DXY chicken' -- LOL! Mrs. W loves the patter of little feat around the table. :)
The Yen a credit bubble?
Bubbles burst, I don't see how that will help Japan.
Question is:
Who is going to be the next Lehman and Bear Stearns out of all this?
JPM? GS? MS? BAC? One of them, or likely all of them, are going to get popped hard...Who will be the fall guys this time?
All of the above will be bailed out of course. Regulatory capture at its best.
Who will take the fall? Snow, Speculators, and of course, people with guns.
Round up the usual suspects.
Al Qaeda
The Taliban
Gay Marriage
Unions
Bloggers
Global Warming
Just a small detail, but the Taliban and Al Qaeda, along with others were all conveniently lumped together under 'The Terrorists' back around 2001 or so. Makes the rhetoric much simpler.
You could conceivably lump Unions, Bloggers, Gay marriage and Global Warming under the catchall 'liberal' or 'libtard'.
Two words: discount window. The TBTF are backed by the full faith & credit of the United States. That's what the entire exercise of moving all risk to the sovereign over the last 2 years was all about.
That's like the security of the henhouse being backed by the full faith and credit of the fox.
Personally, I'd like a front row ticket for the silver/gold unwind by JPM. Severe bow breatch, listing, can't cover the margin calls, buy them in..... I have to go, I think I'm getting a woody. (I thought about Blythe, its at rest now...)
There is a lot of funds that were long the yen. Watch this strength will reverse once they get out of those long positions
I wonder what happens when godzilla starts chomping on that reactor.
Whatch goin to do now Blythe?
Reality:............sucks!!!
BOJ has been very busy
Nah
Reversion bounce to 80 - 81 here..
Agreed but not before we see 75-76.12 area to force the hand of the Gov. G8 meeting will bring the hard juice to the intervention party. BOJ serving up mocktails at the moment.
Creeping up to 79 as we speak.
78.05 right now. session low 76.42
gold just took a dump...somethin blow up in Fukushima?
Seems everything that is not nailed down is being liquidated.
It would be interesting to see the hourly ATM figs.
Silver is crapping out too. LOTS of margin liquidations going on right now.
Feels like 2008 all over again: "Hunt for Liquidity."
Buying opportunity in PMs until the smoke clears!
Globex opening; traders pushed it down, got some stops, and bought the bottom;
BoJ will just print another XTrillion Yen that it has handy - like you do.
OT: Or maybe not... Anyone else notice Stratfor is down? Very odd.
No sweat. There is just nothing of strategic value to report for now. Give it a couple of days.
They're blaming "technical difficulties". ISP owner is probably short JPY
My tea leaves tell me that instead of 200 day moving averages I should be using.. lets say 186,5 day moving averages and expensive underpants.
I found it amusing when I saw a technical analysis guy finding all kinds of resistance levels and tubes from a graph that had been formed by thousands of coin tosses; heads the graph went up, tails down.
Yes Exactly! The cash forwards are in place! Nice work Byte Me.
46! That's the number of stories ZH published today (so far!). That's gotta be some kind of record. Awesome stuff ZH. I'm further impressed that unlike 2008 crisis time, the site uptime & speed are looking great. You guys rock!
+2
ZH is da bomb.
Awesome indeed. Best journalism on earth. Thx.
Uh, ZH didn't start until January 2009. Tyler was just a sperm in the nut of some buy-side firm in 2008.
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/01/wall-streets-diarrhea-shifting-to-...
Lets trade. Now we have some volume/liquidity! Let's do it!
Good thing US bonds are not the safe haven anymore.
<in opposite world>
Like I read on here 14.3trillion times in the last 18months.
Odd though that buyers outnumber sellers about every single day since Gross decided to pull out.
How much has he left on the table exactly?
Personal venting. Bought SPXU on Friday and sold it today 80 cents short of the close and a dollar off the high. Wish I owned it overnight tonight.
Have a much larger position shorting the Euro on Friday, slightly up but wtf... shame currency [i know people feel the same about the dollar] shouldn't hold up in this, especially at it's current level...
Looking over the horizon, if there is a functioning United States in 6 months, don't you think there exists a "Marshall Plan for Japan."
What's the USDJPY bi-winning trade on that between the BOJ and FRB - 220% debt/gdp verses 130% debt/gdp.
The Japanese are not about to let the PLA show up for reconstruction missions, and the US certainly needs the disaster-capitalism avenue to print more money.
Time to bone up on MacAurther's SCAP and all plans Marshall.
What is evolving on the ground in Japan is nothing short of the effects of a limited nuclear war.
As a side note, these photos of Japanese refugee centers do not seem to have a lot of kids in them. I'm sure Japanese demographics will play a huge role in the US rebuilding a China counter-weight.
hi, bank on Z,
i hioe that the children are grouped safely w/ some of the old folks and will be called forth when planz are made.
during the battle of britain, when the germans were raining rocketZ on london, the children were evecauated to the countryside and "placed" with folks. interesting stories and adventures. keep the kids out of the weather as long as possible, then get them o-u-t. i hope.
i have a slewie plan: the japanese engineer a life in undersea villages and family and social pods, powered by radioactive water.
Yawn... ES down less than 1%, USD/JPY coming back straight up from 76.
Should have BTFD.
+1
Only if you have cognitive dissonance on steroids.
Just because you live in the moment doesn't make all that has transpired and will soon transpire go away.
...And 79 going straight up.
Nothing to see here folks, carry on.
This should sober people up a bit to the severity of this...
I have attached a link to the fallout zone of Chernobyl (particularly Caesium-137) which can be seen here:
http://tinyurl.com/6h4salm
I have talked to people who know about this kind of disaster and they have been telling me this is far worse than Chernobyl. Now if we take into account all the materials and products that come from that region of the world (basically everything) this could have massive implications on trade.
It should also be noted that the only entities really capable of measuring this in its entirety is the government(s) which will lie about this like nothing else.
http://www.youtube.com/user/schiffreport?blend=1&ob=4 Schiff on Japan and knock on effects to the U.S economy.
One question.....why would Nymex oil go down with the dollar weakening?.....Either something is happening that we don't know about or there are some shenanigans going on (wouldn't surprise me) or maybe some of both.
not sure all the usual correlations are in tact atm. Demand destruction and massive USD selling on JPY repat seem to be interpreted more as risk off than anything else.
Within minutes......back up to 78.5
This is the financial equivalent of the 8.9 earthquake, that is now ripping apart the world's financial systems.
The derivatives counterparties and pools are the financial nuclear reactors and nuclear waste pools of this event.
As Warren was fond to say "Deriviates are like nuclear waste."
The 15 meter tall economic tsunami lies ahead, my friends. Better move to highest ground without delay.
But...but.....I thought all these "innovative financial instruments" lessen risk to counterparties and make morons rich from fees..... What could possibly go wrong?
They forgot the everything goes to hell and all bills come due at once part and then everyone is bk because the bets are sans capital to back them.
Man I hope your wrong.
Does anyone have a take on how this may affect US mfg. Silicon Valley?
I hope I am too, but reality will out here. There is a hugh nuclear problem just north of Tokyo. The whole north end of the nation is toast. Currencies are panic converting to yen in order to beat the rush. This will not end in the two week mental horizon for the news media. The financial issues WILL result in economic issues. The "butterfly" flapping its wings in asia this time was a gigantic earthquake Mothra with a nuclear Godzilla crushing the most indebted nation on earth...you tell me how this will end well.
Not well. I was just looking at the EUR-USD-JPY triangle.
Tell me how is it the the EUR-USD is holding at 1.39 and the EUR-JPY is holding at 1.09 while the melt down occurs between the JPY-USD?
The presures have got to be as high as the nuclear reactors before they blew.
Or, am I missing something?
Also interested on implications for US mfg. If the dollar really tanks, then the China mfg hedemony may be over too as it becomes the new reserve and the dollar the under valued tender.
I don't know if you all use this site:
http://www.truefx.com/
but check the fluctuations in the Yen xchange.
USDJPY
BTFD.
http://www.zerohedge.com/forum/99er-charts-0
Everyone can put it back in their pants usd heading back up vs jpy. I got stopped out earlier lost 50 pips but I bought at 77.57 so I'm up around 108 pips with a tight trailing stop.
No way the dollar does not go up.....are you really going to hide in swiss...maybe canada..
Exactly. Best house on a shitty block. In a global deflation scenario you want dollars until the correlation break and PM's establish themselves as the true reserve currency but that is a few years away. One can never ignore the geopolitics of having naval dominance and shores that cannot be invaded. The U.S. can weather any storm because of military dominance and declare default and survive at any time and every other nation is toast and will eat each other. We have to look years ahead to the best situated to endure a global war.
Be carefull. The Ben Bernank may start selling Yen with proceeds from QE (n). I would like to be a fly on the wall of The William Dudley's office right now.
Obama should be shitting his panties...Japan is sucking money back into it's country...why should it fund other countries when it's gonna struggle to cover rebuilt costs? Asia will be hit re: Indonesia, Mayalaisa and Vietnam. Now watch CDS spreads...
Obama's playing golf, making his stupid fucking picks, and trying to figure out if his SS agents can get him some strange while he's in RIO.
Let's face it. We really did elect a freaking man-child to be our "leader". Apra fucking Po.
Excuse me, my wife's kid just told me that Charlie's gonna have a new web-cast on soon, and I gotta run to the bottle shop for a box o beer.
Adults left our leadership positions long ago...
It will not be. As Schiff says what is the point of having a rainy day fund if you are not using it? There is no chance the Japanese will choose to support our economy and their simultaneously. This is 2008 all over again. They have to sell treasuries and the market is bigger than Ben.
That stuff isn't covered in community organizer school.
There seems to be a fundamental flaw in your analysis. To assume Obama is concerned, you must first assume he's not been looking for a Black Swan to save his sorry ass. Hate to say it, but I think this may be his saving grace. Ben's too. Nothing better than a collapse that can be orchestrated to look like the fault of another.
Why are people saying there are workers inside the nuke plant?
First I want to apologize on typing Libya rather than E-jipped last night. Moving forward on the NGO (Non Government Organization) scam.
Subdivision of Core
http://www.wango.org/resources.aspx?section=ngodir
Parent Company: utilizing vast amounts of propaganda donations/taxpayers hidden funding. Learn your new acronyms.
http://www.un.org/en/aboutun/structure/index.shtml
Our worthless leader is going to convince the peasants, the king rules over all global peasants.
Teleprompter spoilers:
O! You better watch out!
You better not cry.
Better not pout, I'm telling you why.
Obama is coming to Rio de Janeiro.
http://colombiareports.com/colombia-news/news/14947-over-200-ngos-urge-eu-to-reject-fta-with-colombia.html
Just another angle of fraud & deception we live in. Don't forget to tune in on the corrupt leader lying to the public this weekend.
Whether or not the US$ bounces back, the dislocations are now starting to happen (two days ago the Nikkei down over 10%, today USDYEN, etc)..hopefully this means the end of days for the genocide ben's plans.
If FX desks and primary dealers are blowing up, who is winning? You can't lose a trillion dollars without someone else making a trillion dollars, unless you literally burn it.
It's margins getting crushed...you sell then you gotta shift funds out, usually UST's. when a huge cross like the YEN crosses unwind it's a big shock. 1. most banks held longs on USD/YEN, played the carry trade on the AUD/JPY and AUD/USD interest rate play. So this will blow up complacent bidders, you'll have sells across the board.
Now the hedge funds start to short, i think they will beat anything BoJ throws at the market re: nuclear meltdown
It's margins getting crushed...you sell then you gotta shift funds out, usually UST's. when a huge cross like the YEN crosses unwind it's a big shock. 1. most banks held longs on USD/YEN, played the carry trade on the AUD/JPY and AUD/USD interest rate play. So this will blow up complacent bidders, you'll have sells across the board.
Now the hedge funds start to short, i think they will beat anything BoJ throws at the market re: nuclear meltdown
It's margins getting crushed...you sell then you gotta shift funds out, usually UST's. when a huge cross like the YEN crosses unwind it's a big shock. 1. most banks held longs on USD/YEN, played the carry trade on the AUD/JPY and AUD/USD interest rate play. So this will blow up complacent bidders, you'll have sells across the board.
Now the hedge funds start to short, i think they will beat anything BoJ throws at the market re: nuclear meltdown
Now 79.28 and still moving towards 80.
Whoever bought the dip, congratulations.
I partially bought the dip so I'll take partial congrats.
What, Noyce of Buy cable @ 1.6080 fame?
jpy seems to be hitting resistance around 79.20 vs usd
Soon the dollar will be worthless, this is a fact we are all aware of.
But all is not lost, because the real problem with the currency is that it is green and looks like shit - nobody wants it anymore.
So why not change the colour of the dollar?
Make it a nice shiny gold and silver color, and even mix a tiny amount of real gold and silver into the currency.
Everybody will want this really cool gold/silver backed currency.
Trust me it will work.
Besides if you are going to print money at least make it look sexy.
Who needs ugly Abe you could have a silver Marilyn Munroe $10 bill?
Who needs shaggy Ben when you could have a golden Betty Page $100 bill?
Wow you could have $1, $2, $3, $4, $5, $6 all the way up to $1,000,000 sexy bills.
And if this new currency doesn't work then you could just look at your money and jerk off.
Now, I'll just sink a pangalacticgargleblaster or two, then pop over to Magrathea to chill out with me old mate Slartibartfast.
Wake me up when the GGI (greater galactic index) reaches 15,123,345,875,126,696 quadtrillion.
Cheers dears.