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John Noyce Is First With Technical USDJPY Observations: "If The Down Move Continues, 71.70 Is Next"

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Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:25 | 1063680 hedgeless_horseman
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Rulers, bitchezzzz!

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:34 | 1063732 4xaddict
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+1 - world's wealthiest bank drawing conclusions a child can with a pencil and a ruler. Awesome!

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:01 | 1063873 Pool Shark
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Pencil and ruler?

I was thinking more along the lines of crayon...


Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:03 | 1063885 4xaddict
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Had to give the kid a pencil because Noyce had either eaten the crayons or they were lodged in his nasal passages.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:14 | 1063926 oh_bama
oh_bama's picture

What are you guys talking about?

Can you please buy a bb terminal and watch the real time quote?


I was watching it and didn't have time to visit zerohedge and now you guys are talking like end of world!!

BTFD--IN JPY case, sell the F POP!!

You guys need to be more american. Trust the fed, trust the BOJ!!


Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:33 | 1063990 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 you posted before I got a chance; I haven't looked at recent prices; but I was going to say; this is very much like a squeeze on the shorts in futures; it doesn't last very long and countervailing forces come into play; disagreeing with Mr. whosis; here. Nice chart, but poor logic. the only thing you can do by trend following is get poor; you have to be a counter-puncher.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:47 | 1064044 macholatte
macholatte's picture

panic over - - Yen now 78.82

average Japanese people not allowed to take advantage of strong Yen.

busines as usual - move on


Too often, the opportunity knocks, but by the time you push back the chain, push back the bolt, unhook the two locks and shut off the burglar alarm, it's too late.
Rita Coolidge

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:49 | 1064053 macholatte
macholatte's picture

Blink - Yen now at 79.02

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 20:20 | 1064167 spekulatn
Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:25 | 1063682 chinaguy
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Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:29 | 1063978 Spitzer
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Ka-boom is indeed the question....

Can we logically conclude that this has a serious chance of actually trip up the derivative world and the treasury market ?

I mean, these people have no power, the plants are a write-off.

I have around 60,000 in margin that I could blow on physical gold tomorrow if I knew...Because the Bank of Montreal got bailed out the first time, so my guess is it will go down this time too.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:30 | 1063980 Al Gorerhythm
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Wed, 03/16/2011 - 21:12 | 1064440 Al Gorerhythm
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Ripples..... !! 1st bank holiday (unofficially).


Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:27 | 1063685 slow_roast
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Tankzilla bitchez

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:26 | 1063687 snakebrain
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All bets are off....

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 21:03 | 1064375 MsCreant
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Everything is a bet, even not betting.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 23:57 | 1065293 TomJoad
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Too true, dollface. ;-)

Thu, 03/17/2011 - 17:45 | 1068499 MsCreant
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Hey dere! Always good to see you posting. We need to have a GOM talk at some point. I don't trust the situation in many ways. What do you think?

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:29 | 1063699 Fredd00
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Buy the dip and jump you fuckers!

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:29 | 1063704 msohn
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JPY is around 14% of the Dollar Index . . . a down move to JPY-USD 71 would be enough to take 2-3 points off that. A lot of guys are also looking at 71-72 as a critical level for DXY as well before sending dollar holders into panic. I guess that leaves the Euro (58%) and where EUR goes from here.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:39 | 1063773 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

Who would have thunk it.. An Earthquake in Japan causes the Yen to rise and the USD to fall below weekly support (trend line) causing a possible follow through and Dollar sell-off. Good grief..

Maybe we will hear some jaw boning about the PIIGS and lift the USD up.. :)

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:45 | 1063797 msohn
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The VIX is finally starting to wake up and show some "life" . . . Days of Rage, PIIGS CDS and Japan . . . VIX now up to 29 but that still factors in a daily standard deviation of only 1.8% which seems low given what we are dealing with right now.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:46 | 1063799 msohn
msohn's picture

The VIX is finally starting to wake up and show some "life" . . . Days of Rage, PIIGS CDS and Japan . . . VIX now up to 29 but that still factors in a daily standard deviation of only 1.8% which seems low given what we are dealing with right now.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:38 | 1064002 IQ 145
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 Short EUR/USD since Mar.4th. still in the money; may get stopped out; don't care; even money stop loss. 

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:30 | 1063706 Debtless
Debtless's picture

U$D slipping fast now - going to break 76 now...

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:32 | 1063725 etrader
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The measured move targets are looking @ 65

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:35 | 1063745 Yen Cross
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65? You need some Juice!

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:06 | 1063899 Michael
Michael's picture

I remember when it was 165.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:29 | 1063707 Dan The Man
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i like it

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:29 | 1063712 Yen Cross
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Gotta love that DAILY chart! The swing /daily isn't my Mantra.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 20:40 | 1064259 slewie the pi-rat
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well, YC, for all the flying feces and rotary blades, the markets have been orderly.  so far. lol. bonds up v. nicely which is good for POMO and japan holding our paper.  right now, Y @ 79.4

michael can remember 165.  i don't think he's older than i am, so he probably has more functioning neurons.  let's talk 300, M!.  Haha!   only a few years ago, tho, 120-130, right?

people think that japan needs to sell bonds, but why can't they sell Treasuries into this and then dump the dollarz?  hey, maybe that's non-intervention enuf?  let uncle sugar intervene if he doesn't like it!  and all those otherz, too. 

the casino is hummin, now!

the whip is just crackin in the commodity pits!  and i wonder if that is not where the dollar strength is coming from---the food and energy unwindz and the paper precious.

big machine.  big freaking load of wash, too ZC.  everything's chill until...the liquidity bitez the dill...

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:49 | 1063714 Henry Chinaski
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Yet, the chart is posted for reference.  Can we move on to the next level of understanding?  Charts are useless in uncharted territory.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:04 | 1063884 Pool Shark
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"Beyond here thar be monsters."


Wed, 03/16/2011 - 22:48 | 1065009 GoinFawr
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Here be Dragons

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:32 | 1063717 belogical
belogical's picture

This has got to be an aberation due to some carry trade or something. The Yen should be getting really weak here. The printing presses in Japan will turn radioactive before it's over

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:38 | 1063753 4xaddict
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Only have to look at an AUDJPY chart to see the carry trade.

While the Japanese keep repatriating their funds this will continue. They have scary savings overseas. Old Mrs Watanabe serving some $DXY chicken tonight!

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:53 | 1063833 machineh
machineh's picture

'DXY chicken' -- LOL! Mrs. W loves the patter of little feat around the table. :)

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:50 | 1063819 AUD
AUD's picture

The Yen a credit bubble?

Bubbles burst, I don't see how that will help Japan.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:33 | 1063723 jkruffin
jkruffin's picture

Question is:


Who is going to be the next Lehman and Bear Stearns out of all this?

JPM? GS? MS? BAC?   One of them, or likely all of them, are going to get popped hard...Who will be the fall guys this time?

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:35 | 1063749 malikai
malikai's picture

All of the above will be bailed out of course. Regulatory capture at its best.

Who will take the fall? Snow, Speculators, and of course, people with guns.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:19 | 1063946 alien-IQ
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Round up the usual suspects.

Al Qaeda
The Taliban
Gay Marriage
Global Warming

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:50 | 1064065 Dr. Porkchop
Dr. Porkchop's picture

Just a small detail, but the Taliban and Al Qaeda, along with others were all conveniently lumped together under 'The Terrorists' back around 2001 or so. Makes the rhetoric much simpler.

You could conceivably lump Unions, Bloggers, Gay marriage and Global Warming under the catchall 'liberal' or 'libtard'.



Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:42 | 1063778 B9K9
B9K9's picture

Two words: discount window. The TBTF are backed by the full faith & credit of the United States. That's what the entire exercise of moving all risk to the sovereign over the last 2 years was all about.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 19:51 | 1064071 Dr. Porkchop
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That's like the security of the henhouse being backed by the full faith and credit of the fox.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 21:05 | 1064392 east paris trader
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Personally, I'd like a front row ticket for the silver/gold unwind by JPM.   Severe bow breatch, listing, can't cover the margin calls, buy them in..... I have to go, I think I'm getting a woody.  (I thought about Blythe, its at rest now...)

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:34 | 1063730 belogical
belogical's picture

There is a lot of funds that were long the yen. Watch this strength will reverse once they get out of those long positions

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:34 | 1063735 MGA_1
MGA_1's picture

I wonder what happens when godzilla starts chomping on that reactor.

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:34 | 1063736 High Plains Drifter
High Plains Drifter's picture

Whatch goin to do now Blythe? 

Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:35 | 1063739 RheologyMan
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Wed, 03/16/2011 - 18:36 | 1063740 bob_dabolina
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BOJ has been very busy

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