John Noyce Is First With Technical USDJPY Observations: "If The Down Move Continues, 71.70 Is Next"

Tyler Durden's picture

Goldman's John Noyce is the first FX technician with a proposed take on tonight's stunning developments. Keep in mind, he, like everyone else is in uncharted (pardon the pun) territory.

Quick JPY Charts - Wednesday 16th March 2011

There are two ways of arriving at a downside target of 77.75-77.56;

  • An equal size pip drop from the June ’07 high to that from the August ’98 high to the November ’99 low would target 77.75
  • The extension target of the triangle which formed from 1st November ’11 to 15th March comes in at 77.56

The market has been below this region intraday, but, the NY 5pm close was at 77.90 according to the EBS data we use. If we were able to stabilise around 77.75-77.56 you could argue that the last part of the drop was set in an extreme situation with poor liquidity etc. definitely something to watch closely. Not to say the call was for a move this sharp in the first place, but with the help of hindsight on two counts you could argue “target met”.

 ..If.. the down move does continue the next really clean level is the actual parallel channel support off the August ’98 high which comes in at 71.70 on the linear scale chart.


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4xaddict's picture

+1 - world's wealthiest bank drawing conclusions a child can with a pencil and a ruler. Awesome!

Pool Shark's picture


Pencil and ruler?

I was thinking more along the lines of crayon...


4xaddict's picture

Had to give the kid a pencil because Noyce had either eaten the crayons or they were lodged in his nasal passages.

oh_bama's picture

What are you guys talking about?

Can you please buy a bb terminal and watch the real time quote?


I was watching it and didn't have time to visit zerohedge and now you guys are talking like end of world!!

BTFD--IN JPY case, sell the F POP!!

You guys need to be more american. Trust the fed, trust the BOJ!!


IQ 145's picture

 you posted before I got a chance; I haven't looked at recent prices; but I was going to say; this is very much like a squeeze on the shorts in futures; it doesn't last very long and countervailing forces come into play; disagreeing with Mr. whosis; here. Nice chart, but poor logic. the only thing you can do by trend following is get poor; you have to be a counter-puncher.

macholatte's picture

panic over - - Yen now 78.82

average Japanese people not allowed to take advantage of strong Yen.

busines as usual - move on


Too often, the opportunity knocks, but by the time you push back the chain, push back the bolt, unhook the two locks and shut off the burglar alarm, it's too late.
Rita Coolidge

Spitzer's picture

Ka-boom is indeed the question....

Can we logically conclude that this has a serious chance of actually trip up the derivative world and the treasury market ?

I mean, these people have no power, the plants are a write-off.

I have around 60,000 in margin that I could blow on physical gold tomorrow if I knew...Because the Bank of Montreal got bailed out the first time, so my guess is it will go down this time too.

slow_roast's picture

Tankzilla bitchez

snakebrain's picture

All bets are off....

MsCreant's picture

Everything is a bet, even not betting.

TomJoad's picture

Too true, dollface. ;-)

MsCreant's picture

Hey dere! Always good to see you posting. We need to have a GOM talk at some point. I don't trust the situation in many ways. What do you think?

Fredd00's picture

Buy the dip and jump you fuckers!

msohn's picture

JPY is around 14% of the Dollar Index . . . a down move to JPY-USD 71 would be enough to take 2-3 points off that. A lot of guys are also looking at 71-72 as a critical level for DXY as well before sending dollar holders into panic. I guess that leaves the Euro (58%) and where EUR goes from here.

Max Hunter's picture

Who would have thunk it.. An Earthquake in Japan causes the Yen to rise and the USD to fall below weekly support (trend line) causing a possible follow through and Dollar sell-off. Good grief..

Maybe we will hear some jaw boning about the PIIGS and lift the USD up.. :)

msohn's picture

The VIX is finally starting to wake up and show some "life" . . . Days of Rage, PIIGS CDS and Japan . . . VIX now up to 29 but that still factors in a daily standard deviation of only 1.8% which seems low given what we are dealing with right now.

msohn's picture

The VIX is finally starting to wake up and show some "life" . . . Days of Rage, PIIGS CDS and Japan . . . VIX now up to 29 but that still factors in a daily standard deviation of only 1.8% which seems low given what we are dealing with right now.

IQ 145's picture

 Short EUR/USD since Mar.4th. still in the money; may get stopped out; don't care; even money stop loss. 

Debtless's picture

U$D slipping fast now - going to break 76 now...

etrader's picture

The measured move targets are looking @ 65

Yen Cross's picture

65? You need some Juice!

Michael's picture

I remember when it was 165.

Yen Cross's picture

Gotta love that DAILY chart! The swing /daily isn't my Mantra.

slewie the pi-rat's picture

well, YC, for all the flying feces and rotary blades, the markets have been orderly.  so far. lol. bonds up v. nicely which is good for POMO and japan holding our paper.  right now, Y @ 79.4

michael can remember 165.  i don't think he's older than i am, so he probably has more functioning neurons.  let's talk 300, M!.  Haha!   only a few years ago, tho, 120-130, right?

people think that japan needs to sell bonds, but why can't they sell Treasuries into this and then dump the dollarz?  hey, maybe that's non-intervention enuf?  let uncle sugar intervene if he doesn't like it!  and all those otherz, too. 

the casino is hummin, now!

the whip is just crackin in the commodity pits!  and i wonder if that is not where the dollar strength is coming from---the food and energy unwindz and the paper precious.

big machine.  big freaking load of wash, too ZC.  everything's chill until...the liquidity bitez the dill...

Henry Chinaski's picture

Yet, the chart is posted for reference.  Can we move on to the next level of understanding?  Charts are useless in uncharted territory.

belogical's picture

This has got to be an aberation due to some carry trade or something. The Yen should be getting really weak here. The printing presses in Japan will turn radioactive before it's over

4xaddict's picture

Only have to look at an AUDJPY chart to see the carry trade.

While the Japanese keep repatriating their funds this will continue. They have scary savings overseas. Old Mrs Watanabe serving some $DXY chicken tonight!

machineh's picture

'DXY chicken' -- LOL! Mrs. W loves the patter of little feat around the table. :)

AUD's picture

The Yen a credit bubble?

Bubbles burst, I don't see how that will help Japan.

jkruffin's picture

Question is:


Who is going to be the next Lehman and Bear Stearns out of all this?

JPM? GS? MS? BAC?   One of them, or likely all of them, are going to get popped hard...Who will be the fall guys this time?

malikai's picture

All of the above will be bailed out of course. Regulatory capture at its best.

Who will take the fall? Snow, Speculators, and of course, people with guns.

alien-IQ's picture

Round up the usual suspects.

Al Qaeda
The Taliban
Gay Marriage
Global Warming

Dr. Porkchop's picture

Just a small detail, but the Taliban and Al Qaeda, along with others were all conveniently lumped together under 'The Terrorists' back around 2001 or so. Makes the rhetoric much simpler.

You could conceivably lump Unions, Bloggers, Gay marriage and Global Warming under the catchall 'liberal' or 'libtard'.



B9K9's picture

Two words: discount window. The TBTF are backed by the full faith & credit of the United States. That's what the entire exercise of moving all risk to the sovereign over the last 2 years was all about.

Dr. Porkchop's picture

That's like the security of the henhouse being backed by the full faith and credit of the fox.

east paris trader's picture

Personally, I'd like a front row ticket for the silver/gold unwind by JPM.   Severe bow breatch, listing, can't cover the margin calls, buy them in..... I have to go, I think I'm getting a woody.  (I thought about Blythe, its at rest now...)

belogical's picture

There is a lot of funds that were long the yen. Watch this strength will reverse once they get out of those long positions

MGA_1's picture

I wonder what happens when godzilla starts chomping on that reactor.

High Plains Drifter's picture

Whatch goin to do now Blythe? 

RheologyMan's picture!!!

bob_dabolina's picture

BOJ has been very busy