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John Taylor Calls The Top: "The Rally Is Ending"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The Rally Is Ending
July 29, 2010
By John R. Taylor, Jr., Chief Investment Officer

For FX Concepts, this is a big day and a very scary one as well. Because our market view is now very precise, but at odds with the accepted wisdom, we are putting ourselves out on a limb. The euro is going to be hit again and commodity currencies will come under increasing pressure. Our cyclical analysis argues that the currency markets are making a major reversal right now, today, and that this will be at least a medium term reversal in equities and credit as well. Although it is more likely that the equity and credit markets will not begin their major decline until the last week of August, the odds favor an unimpressive month ahead which means that we are at the end of the exciting part of the rally of the past two months. By the end of next month, equities will be headed lower, credit spreads will widen sharply, and government bonds will begin a rally to new all time highs. Our completely technical cyclical work implies that there will be a return to dark times in September and October, with a sharp decline driven by liquidity and solvency issues likely to set the world back on a recessionary course.

Although the cyclical picture gets more uncertain the farther out we go, we believe that there will be a major cyclical low in risk during January and another one, possibly more aggressive in the third quarter of 2011.

Using this cyclical analysis as our base, we can work backward to generate a set of fundamental conditions that would allow a cyclical picture like this to occur. If the S&P 500 is going to challenge its March 2009 lows in the next year, and interest rates are going to drop sharply while credit spreads widen dramatically, what would the US economy have to do and what would the world look like? Clearly the widespread conviction that the 2008 recession is in the rear view mirror and that growth will slowly improve in the years ahead is wrong. All the forecasts of the G-20 governments are completely off base, which means that the politicians are not prepared for another downturn. We wonder what the downturn will do to the Eurozone, the US, China, and Japan, as each one is vulnerable in a different way.

The financial underpinnings of the Eurozone do not look as though they can tolerate a recession in the coming year. The recent stress test has shown that an economic decline would be disastrous for the banks. Even though the test was easy, only marking down the small fraction of sovereign debt held in the trading accounts, among other things, many of the banks still had low tier one capital ratios. If even one Eurozone government finds itself unable to roll over their debt, the whole system will come tumbling down. Our cyclical picture means that we must be negative on the outlook for the euro, and the odds favor some significant euro restructuring during this next year. A recession in the US might imply a collapse in the municipal market as many states and lesser jurisdictions will find themselves forced into bankruptcy, but the banks and the major corporations are more liquid, and therefore stronger, than their counterparts in Europe. The more aggressive write-offs in the US and the coming municipal bankruptcies are accelerating the deleveraging of the US in comparison with that in Europe.

So, it is possible that the US will come out much stronger in the next few years. A slowdown in global trade similar to that in 2008 will hit the Far East countries, especially Japan and China. As the cyclical picture is projecting a decline similar to that of 2008, it is reasonable for us to assume that the credit markets will seize up as they did then and that the economies will follow roughly the same course. We will be carefully turning our positions in the direction of a stronger dollar and a stronger yen just like we did in 2008. We are bullish on government debt as well.

h/t Teddy KGB

 

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Thu, 07/29/2010 - 01:59 | 493625 10044
10044's picture

this sits in well with what Arch Crawford calls "Cardinal Climax" starting today/tomorrow

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crawford-says-apocalypse-begins-monday-...

 

 

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 02:06 | 493627 joe.schmuck
joe.schmuck's picture

What is up with all the Stanford themes, football season is still a few months away...

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 06:33 | 493751 anony
anony's picture

Guess you're not a gridiron fan....my neighbor has all the college draft reports ready to go (these little puppies costs hundreds if not thousands of dollars), his TV is outside on the picnic table, he has a hot line to his brother in California, and son in Florida.  He doesn't bet a single dollar on any games or draft picks but goes into a deep depression at the end of the Superbowl, and doesn't know what to do with himself besides work, until July 31.

For football fanatics the anticipation of the new season dominates everything in their lives.

Remarkable.

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 07:30 | 493784 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

If only people followed the misdeeds of DC so closely...

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 07:41 | 493794 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

Imagine if people played Fantasy Congress.  "You're such a prick, Matt.  I was going to buy up Rangel."

"You got Pelosi, Bitch.  With what she's gonna blow on plane travel and food this year, she's worth WAY more than my Rangel."

 

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 07:58 | 493806 -Michelle-
-Michelle-'s picture

There are so many things you could do with that idea.  Stats based on ridiculous pieces of legislature, pork projects, staffing budgets, miles traveled using taxpayer funds, caucus memberships...

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 10:08 | 493978 chunkylover42
chunkylover42's picture

Indeed, this is a terrific idea.  We need to make this happen.

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 06:28 | 493749 CPL
CPL's picture

I call it "the Canadian dollar hitting near .98 cents for no good reason".

 

That's my bell weather.  Still no clue why folks are using anything else.

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 09:50 | 493930 BobWatNorCal
BobWatNorCal's picture

One person's bell weather is another's bellwether....

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 09:15 | 493857 IBelieveInMagic
IBelieveInMagic's picture

I know for sure Euro is going down. If not .... up. Whatever! Just roll the dice.

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 02:07 | 493628 TraderTimm
TraderTimm's picture

I have a market model projection that puts the slide down in the indexes happening until the end of October, with a subsequent rebound after. Seems likely given most economic data is a dog's breakfast of bad information lately.

 

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 05:58 | 493736 TooBearish
TooBearish's picture

Not sure that jibes with Bam Bams timing, while the Republicons would love to see a crappy market all fall into the elections, Bens finger is on the QE2 trigger, if we were to get a sharp, quick sell off towards the july low in August that would give Ben room to pull that trigger to help asset prices into the elections...

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 08:22 | 493815 Thalamus
Thalamus's picture

Ben believes in lower taxes so I think he secretly wants a republican win this fall and will hold back on QE2.

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 08:50 | 493855 NOTW777
NOTW777's picture

how can you say that?  actions speak louder than words.  he s for the TBTF-gov cabal and has been right along side the current socialist admin.

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 10:13 | 493986 Thisson
Thisson's picture

I think you meant to say "fascist" not "socialist"

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 02:10 | 493630 Pedro
Pedro's picture

It is hard to be restrained when you know the market is on the verge of a severe downward turn, and you want to position yourself, but, on the other hand, you have to balance it against what the fed and people on "the inside" will do.  The free markets aren't free, but I guess it comes with the territory.

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 05:17 | 493706 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

The problem is the Fed is misreading the economic data (in other words smoking their own bullcrap) and they are not being procative enough to prevent the next liquidity crisis. This is spiraling towards a major event this fall, then a pause for the elections, a Christmas swoon where Santa gets shot down by a Stinger, and God knows how bad of a decline in early 2011 as everyone finally realizes the impact of the new taxation and regulatory schemes taking effect.

In other words panic early, beat the rush.

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 08:37 | 493832 PierreLegrand
PierreLegrand's picture

Welllll.....only problem is the same scenario of collapse was supposed to have struck in 2008, 09 and 10.

Starting to wonder if we are simply going to stumble around for the next 10 years or if a collapse is actually going to happen.

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 09:52 | 493934 BobWatNorCal
BobWatNorCal's picture

+1

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 02:18 | 493634 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

The timing of so much "rally over" news all crowding into this day, the day before tomorrow, is fascinating.

Tomorrow is a cardinal day.

A cardinal cross day.

My tingly senses tell me that the church is going to take a big hit. Big enough to cause the markets to stumble.

Given how resilient they have been to bad news lately, it'll take a huge event to cause a sharp drop.

All the pointers say it's coming.

Stay loose and be ready for change.

Loose change!

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 02:33 | 493641 Spitzer
Spitzer's picture

What rally is over ? You mean the 30 year bull market rally in bonds ?

Nothing screams market top like an A+ five year auction and the best bid to cover since 06.

But hey, lets buy bonds everyone !!

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 04:32 | 493691 Hunch Trader
Hunch Trader's picture

Perhaps he meant being bullish on the yield, not price :)

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 02:34 | 493642 carbonmutant
carbonmutant's picture

Ballsy call... John was calling the Euro a headless chicken back in May.

"This rescue reminds us of Bob Rubin’s rescue of Russia in July 1998, which lasted about one month before the whole house of cards collapsed. We knew that one couldn’t work, and this one can’t either. It might take longer, but the euro is finished."

http://www.roubini.com/euro-monitor/258844/john_taylor___dead_man_walkin...

 

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 02:44 | 493647 jefftheshark
jefftheshark's picture

*

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 03:04 | 493648 Privatus
Privatus's picture

For those non-professional traders out there, a word: for exciting times, don't think, just blindly follow this gentleman's forecast, lever up to the max on one asset and roll the dice until your broker cuts you off. Alternatively, a sustainable strategy would be to enter risking 1 to 3% of capital when a change in trend is confirmed by the ultimate indicator: price, say a breach of the 90-day low/(high if long). Exit with trailing stop on breach of 45-day high/(low if long). No one knows what the future holds and following market turn calls is a mug's game. For every Soros who calls huge market turns right, know that there are millions on the other side who funded his win. No one knows the future, that's why it pays and pays and pays to wait for the market to confirm a change in trend before risking precious capital. You're welcome.

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 03:11 | 493658 drwells
drwells's picture

"the ultimate indicator: price"

yep.

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 04:22 | 493687 taraxias
taraxias's picture

One word: nonsense 

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 03:00 | 493656 H.Ibsen
H.Ibsen's picture

I've heard a few too many say the rally is dissipating; in other words, the rally is not dissipating.

 

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 05:05 | 493701 Young
Young's picture

Here maybe, but we are the brave minority. Watch CNBC and you'll get another picture. If you wanna feel contrarian, tune in to Maria, Erin and the other douche bags...

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 03:15 | 493661 chump666
chump666's picture

i kinda agree.  you have investment banks chasing yields other than bonds, so they think that a rally in stocks is about to propel.  i think they are gonna get squeezed when the EU implodes and China PMI is a lot neg (check August 1st).

total mispricing of risk...i hope they getting fucking destroyed

 

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 03:16 | 493662 Eric Cartman
Eric Cartman's picture

Ahh, nothing like getting out of bed, booting my computer and starting my day with article as encouraging as this. I think I'm gonna go back to bed now. 

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 03:36 | 493670 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

WIkileaks----what leaks...its a CIA front....

so they have tracked Bin Laden and know where he is......SO DO I

http://redactednews.blogspot.com/2010/07/wikileakswikipedia-truth-servin...

 

Julian assange dismisses 9-11 conspiracies .....(Ok ...that nails him)

 

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/lifestyle/features/wanted-by-the-cia-w...

 

wikileaks co-founder criticises it::

http://alethonews.wordpress.com/2010/07/28/wikileaks-estranged-co-founde...

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 03:37 | 493671 Tense INDIAN
Tense INDIAN's picture

even RON PAUL dismisses 9-11 conspiracies .........i m not sure ...but this looks like a case of classic gate-keeping

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 04:51 | 493692 i-dog
i-dog's picture

1. Why would the CIA/TPTB want to sink the Cap-and-Trade/Global Warming tax? Wikileaks blew that out of the water with their leaks.

2. Why would the CIA/TPTB want to discredit military tactics against civilians and Reuters photographers in Iraq? The chopper massacre that was published by Wikileaks went viral and was nearly as damaging to continued US involvement there as the My-Lai massacre was to Vietnam.

3. Though the MSM has been emphasizing the Pakistan connection in the latest leaks (which is to be expected of them), Assange himself has concentrated on the massacres of civilians and the possibility of evidence of war crimes in what he called "a Polish My-Lai". He cannot be held responsible for what the MSM chooses to print, or is ordered to print.

4. For a start, I would like someone in the media (MSM or alternative) to add up the number of senseless civilian deaths that are exposed in the 95,000 pages of the leak. I think that would be more productive than the Wikileaks bashing.

5. Though I believe that 9-11 was indeed a false flag to get the US into Afghanistan quick smart to get the poppies growing again, I also get "annoyed" (as Assange is quoted) at the wide variety of 9-11 Truth claims and the incoherent range of ascribed motives. We need one truthful story to come out eventually.

I am becoming increasingly suspicious of most of the "alternative media". They say the government is trying to frighten and confuse us to make us compliant, yet they deliberately frighten and confuse their listeners even more by publishing the most outlandish claims about the Gulf of Mexico exploding, America being ripped in two by an earthquake, the Atlantic filling up with oil and swamping the UK, asteroids coming, comets coming, UFOs coming, the end of the world in 2012 ... all interspersed with ads for water purifiers, seeds, home deliveries of truck loads of baked beans, and a score of other bunker-survival kits. Now they are on a major push to discredit Wikileaks. Is their bashing of Wikileaks professional jealousy? Or shoot the messenger? Or a CIA cover? Or accurate?

I certainly don't know............

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 04:20 | 493686 taraxias
taraxias's picture

Taylor et al: "equities are moving lower"

Bernanke et al: "we've put a floor under the market"

 

Place your bets.

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 04:55 | 493698 VK
VK's picture

Bernanke told me subprime was contained.

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 05:14 | 493705 Young
Young's picture

Yeah, and Greenspan didn't think a housing downturn could occur all over the states at the same time.

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 06:37 | 493755 anony
anony's picture

He was sorta right for 10 years. Plenty of time for The Chosen to make their grandchildren wealthy for 5 generations.

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 06:36 | 493754 anony
anony's picture

"One man's ceiling......"

(lyrics: Paul Simon)

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 05:39 | 493731 newstreet
newstreet's picture

We're all trying to pick the top in the Euro - so far a suckers game.

 

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 06:08 | 493737 RebateTrader
RebateTrader's picture

edit

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 06:35 | 493753 anony
anony's picture

blah, blah, blah....the dollar is headed to antarctica, below 82 right now.

Game on, buy some Sept calls. You can't lose.

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 06:50 | 493759 reader2010
reader2010's picture

Still a man hears what he wants to hear / And disregards the rest

- Paul Simon

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 07:11 | 493776 wiskeyrunner
wiskeyrunner's picture

The SP500 will make a new high for the year before the election. The political party in power has given wall street what it wanted. The party in power will now be re paid with a rising market just in time for the november elections.....Just watch!

 

This is 2006 all over again.

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 07:41 | 493795 Bankster T Cubed
Bankster T Cubed's picture

could be.  if so, though, the monster is orders of magnitude "more monster"

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 08:22 | 493816 anony
anony's picture

Fully expect QE2 to be announced in the next 90 days, but it will be marketed and sold as something else.

Think: approaching a top flight Singapore hooker only to find out in the bedroom "she's" a crossdressing tranny. 

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 07:39 | 493786 plocequ1
plocequ1's picture

Bernankes response:  NO. How could the market rally end when according to tyler, There is no market. Just a circus side show controlled by the Fed??

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 07:38 | 493789 Bankster T Cubed
Bankster T Cubed's picture

true economic forces would have these markets much much lower today, yesterday, and long ago

the criminal master bankers with their henchmen in gov'ts and the Fed determind price

this market will turn when it suits their agenda

current pricing in the markets is a sham, and will therefore ultimately collapse necessarily

but they will be in control of the collapse

that's the plan, anyway.  Directional calls based on anything other than inside knowledge about what these sicko bankster f**ks have planned are just a waste of energy

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 08:59 | 493864 wiskeyrunner
wiskeyrunner's picture

Your right Bankster, when the big banks have unloaded there longs and have moved into shorts only then will we start diving. And the media will play there part with gloom and doom on very channel. It's all rigged.

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 07:40 | 493792 optionblast
optionblast's picture

John is definitely on to something.  There is a disconnect between the Euro and the Yen currency Futures...such that they are both moving higher.  This has not happened in recent memory and the Markets (by this very fact) are becoming increasingly dangerous. 

A simple trade which has worked well over the last year or so is to go long the Equity Markets (risk trade) when the Japanese Yen Futures (risk aversion trade)  weakens.

Unfortunately, the Japanese Yen Futures contracts is now near its contract high at 11.600... You be the judge. John is indeed on to something!!

http://chart.ly/p972h3

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 09:15 | 493881 barkingbill
barkingbill's picture

yeah the yen is really remarkable. it goes up in market skids, and holds its ground when the market rallies. maybe has something to do with moving away from dollar as reserve currency and towards SDRs or whatever

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 07:46 | 493800 mcguire
mcguire's picture

please enjoy this short clip:

http://cashcowequity.com/

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 07:53 | 493804 L
L's picture

And euro is going up... "Short euro", one said, when it was at 1.27...

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 07:58 | 493805 Bruce Krasting
Bruce Krasting's picture

Taylor may well be right that the Euro will be rolling over soon and headed south. But keep in mind that Taylor has been long the USD for the past 6 weeks and the last 12 big figures. So if you followed his advice you would have been long, and wrong. His model is long wave, meaning you get in late and get out late.

I am not a believer in the strong Euro story. But I am a believer in the weak dollar story. To me it looks like the Euro has legs. That is just the market. Not logic. Thanks to guys like Taylor the USD is still overbought and can go lower. I think the Euro gets to 1.35 as short covering continues.

 

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 08:23 | 493818 doublethink
doublethink's picture

That weak dollar story...is China possibly dumping the dollar a theme?

(Reuters) - The United States should alter policy to take account of China's role as a major player on the world stage if it wants to avoid friction and instability, a major state newspaper said on Thursday.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE66S0O520100729

 

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 08:15 | 493812 cognitis
cognitis's picture

New multi-month highs in all currency pairs. This guy couldn't have been more wrong.

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 08:47 | 493846 DrLamer
DrLamer's picture

Almost all money changers are parasites. They dont add liquidity into the interbank FX market etc.

Rembrandt "Money changer" 1766:

http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Rembrandt_-_Der_reiche_Narr.jpg

The only excuse for them today is that the losers in this game are actually not ordinary people (as it was in Rome paganistic empire), but :

(a) huge international monopolies like Sony, Philips or British Petroleum;

(b) fat international "investors", half of them are governmental thieves, putting their money into ANOTHER COUNTRY, weakening their own domestic export.

That is why today the money earned on Forex is somewhere TAX on wealthy.

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 08:49 | 493853 Malaespina
Malaespina's picture

 I think he is way too optimistic. Economic armagdeon is few days around the corner. Noticed canned and energetic foods are dissapearing from the shelves... Makes you think....

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 09:51 | 493932 Sherman McCoy
Sherman McCoy's picture

Not sure what top these guys are calling, my emerging market funds are breaking out, and the Donchian on the S&P just went bullish. I did sell EUR today, but would be shocked if I nailed a top.

Thu, 07/29/2010 - 11:06 | 494091 scratch_and_sniff
scratch_and_sniff's picture

What a lot of cunt.

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