This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

John Taylor: "The Collapse Of Europe Has Begun, The Euro Will Trade Like The Lira In A Few Months"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Fasten Your Seatbelt
November 11, 2010
By John R. Taylor, Jr.
Chief Investment Officer
, FX Concepts

Now that Ben Bernanke has re-introduced quantitative easing (QE2) to a mostly incredulous world and, across the ocean, the Eurozone has begun unraveling again, our thoughts should turn to the parlous state of the world and the risks ahead. These are amazing times and seem to grow more so every day. Policy errors are popping up everywhere and are likely to multiply dramatically as the political problems are serious, answers hard to find, and the decision makers are not up to the task. Bernanke has proven that he is more a college professor and less a trader, which will cost the world dearly. Sometime between June and August Bernanke lost his stomach for the “exit strategy,” probably influenced by his predecessor’s summer announcement that the US economy had ‘hit an invisible wall.” While it can be argued that QE1 has been a success due to the liquidity crisis, it did not expand the Fed’s balance sheet and came when the economy was still reeling. This new edition dramatically expands the balance sheet, actually funding the entire projected government deficit over the next few months. Although the world believes that QE2 is there to push the dollar sharply lower, Bernanke argued that his goal was something else. On the day after the Fed’s move, he wrote in a Washington Post editorial piece that QE2 would push up the equity market, bonds, and other risky securities thereby stimulating consumption and economic activity. Even Greenspan did not publicly proclaim his “put,” but now Bernanke has made it the centerpiece of US strategy. Equities are already overpriced, with profit margins at all-time highs and PE ratios far above average. Speculation is now more American than apple pie – but this is a very risky time to practice it. As one highly respected analyst noted about Bernanke’s article, “these are undoubtedly among the most ignorant remarks ever made by a central banker.” As we and many others have noted that QE has shown little or no positive impact on actual economic activity, so the Fed has taken a big gamble, and if it fails as we expect it will have nowhere else to go. With the Republican victory tainted by the Tea Party “starve the beast” mentality, austerity has come to Washington. This next year will be a terrible one for the world’s biggest economy, so we would go against Bernanke on the equity side, but buy government bonds along with him.

The Eurozone has begun its collapse a little later than we thought. My compliments to the political prowess of the euro-leaders for holding things together for so long, but this is an impossible situation and the crisis is on its way. Jean-Claude Trichet caught the spirit of the situation today in Seoul when he said that “it is absolutely necessary to change the governance of Europe” and called for moving “as far as possible in the direction of an economic and budgetary quasi-federation.” I only disagree with part of one word, ‘quasi,‘ as Europe must move to a full economic federation if the euro is to survive. With 16 countries using the euro and Estonia on the way, the odds of moving there is currently lower than infinitesimal. Things will change after the approaching horrible economic and political catastrophes that will wrack some of these economies and societies. Unfortunately nothing will happen before the current situation gets unbearable – this is the way of democratic politics. As all the leaders are still working toward the same goals, and no one has stepped forward express the inchoate fears of the European populace, this should take years. By the start of next year the Eurozone will enter a recession that will test the current leadership. The euro, which has been perceived as if it were a German mark, has already topped and will decline until it is priced like an Italian lira in the next few months. With Europe and the US in recession next year, commodity prices will drop again and global growth will suffer despite the outperformance of domestic Asian economies. With the policy stresses, and the risk of significant errors in judgment, international strife becomes more likely as well.

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Thu, 11/11/2010 - 10:43 | 719193 Rahm
Rahm's picture

How much did Soros make this time?

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 10:50 | 719219 Arius
Arius's picture

who cares? 

as big as soros might be he is not the cause but the symptom.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 11:24 | 719334 UGrev
UGrev's picture

I agree. He's an opportunistic parasite. 

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 11:31 | 719358 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

He is doing whatever it takes to make money. Can't fault him for that.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 14:17 | 719486 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

"...theater-actor -- tragedy, you know; take a turn to mesmerism and phrenology when there's a chance; teach singing-geography school for a change; sling a lecture sometimes -- oh, I do lots of things -- most anything that comes handy, so it ain't work. What's your lay?"

-Mark Twain 

"...doing whatever it takes to make money."

So, in your opinion, as long as you are on the glorious mission of trying to make money, fraud would be ok?

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 12:11 | 719508 outamyeffinway
outamyeffinway's picture

Uhhhh, maybe not you but I sure could. What moral handbook are you reading from?

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 12:28 | 719574 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

The postWWII version: Greed is good and by any means necessary.

Those who believe morals are absolute throughout time remind me why nice folks usually finish last.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 15:56 | 720129 thefatasswilly
thefatasswilly's picture

Hilarious that you were junked. People simply can't accept the fact that the common western system of Christian morals leads to failure, not success.

Amazing to me that hordes of American "intellectuals" have apparently never read Nietzche.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 17:04 | 720245 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Yah, "I'm all right so fuck all the rest" is bound to work out for the best. Though admittedly by 'best' I mean the sociopaths with whom you are desperately trying to align yourself like some sort of 'useful idiot'. Trust me: you aren't getting a seat at the table of the Gang on Fortune Hill just because you like the cut of their jibs.

Good luck with that. You better hope you don't live in our neck of the woods, 'cuz duped loyalists will be the first to go where I am at.

Amazing to me that hordes of American 'nihilists' have apparently never read Kropotkin.

(Well, mb they have, but like the Nietzsche they've read it's painfully obvious that they failed to understand it.)

Warmiest Regards

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 15:52 | 723021 thefatasswilly
thefatasswilly's picture

. . .

I'm aligned with myself.

I plan on killing the oligarchs. Don't make assumptions; you're obviously not intelligent enough to do so.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 14:19 | 719852 The_Dude
The_Dude's picture

Yes, you can fault him...that is what got us into theis G'damn mess. 

 

Whatever fraud/deceit/extortion it takes to make money!!  F'ing people need to readjust the heads before someone shows up and does it for you.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 14:56 | 719932 Hugh_Jorgan
Hugh_Jorgan's picture

Nicely put, Dude.

Soros is much worse than a simple opportunist. He is a global Alinsky-ist. He is a top-down, and bottom-up meddler, the likes of which the world has never seen. He uses his money and influence to subverts elections, and stirs up social unrest "at just the right times", in order to foment the very opportunities that he profits from. All on the on the back of entire economies and regions and countries. He claims to have spent upwards of $8Billion doing this stuff in emerging countries. The man believes he is a god (his words, not mine) and so we are all his playthings. He is the ultimate representation of our insideous system of massive avrice, and power that relies on the excuse of; "it's for the greater good" to reassure ourselves that ruining people's lives is ok as long as your vision is for something better. It is Socialist circular logic, and it is Evil. The same justifications that Adolf Hitler, Joseph Stalin, and Mao Se Tung, used for the murder 10s of millions of innocent people. Everyone, needs to read some of Soros' books, you will understand WHO this guy really is...

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 15:24 | 720015 Cpl Hicks
Cpl Hicks's picture

Well said, Huge!

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 15:58 | 720131 thefatasswilly
thefatasswilly's picture

Cry more; you'd do the exact same if you were smart enough to do so.

Also, think about this: despite the fact that Mao, Hitler, and Stalin massacred tens, if not hundreds, of millions of people, humanity STILL suffers from severe overpopulation and stupidity problems.

The fact that you condemn these great men for their services to the human race reveals your simple mindedness.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 12:14 | 719520 TonyV
TonyV's picture

I agree. He's an opportunistic parasite. 

As so is everyone else on this board for that matter

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 12:20 | 719542 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

Oh Tony!

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 18:43 | 720534 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

Wow!  A tingle went right up my leg...the image of two parasitic ZHers entertwined one with a paper bag over his head, the other a freshly ripped chunk of meat.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 13:13 | 719703 DosZap
DosZap's picture

TV,

"As so is everyone else on this board for that matter"

To be a Parasite one must find a host,(to leech off of) to be labeled as such with such a BROAD blanket, is not only incorrect, but morally reprehensible,and derogatory.

As such, I suggest you speak for yourself, unless of course you know everyone ON this Board.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 16:25 | 720226 TonyV
TonyV's picture

DZ,

The original poster was comparing someone that profits from the fall of the Euro to a parasite. By that defintion, everyone that tries to profit from the fall of CSCO stock, or from the bubble in the treasuries or in PMs or anything else in between, is also a parasite.

TV

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 18:44 | 720537 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

I'm a huge parasite then, by the first argument:   Die Euro!

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 13:44 | 719780 MeTarzanUjane
MeTarzanUjane's picture

Now, now. You are a big meanie.

Soros is awesome, so is his #2 guy!

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 11:46 | 719405 Printfaster
Printfaster's picture

as big as soros might be he is not the cause but the symptom.

A sympton of the Rothchild banking Cartel?

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 10:59 | 719194 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

Euro is breaking down from support now...if anyone does not think this market is being propped up watch the action in IWM.

Update:  Nice one Benny, with the Euro tanking the indices somehow seem to levitate higher since apparently people cannot wait to take on more risk.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 11:30 | 719355 jus_lite_reading
jus_lite_reading's picture

WORLD WAR III is imminent. That is the only solution.

Rocket schmocket my ass. 6, count 'em, SIX ACC's out this week, with 50+ naval ships in the M.E. and dozens in S.E Asia... ok

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 11:37 | 719378 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Agreed. Thats the only outcome of all this. Millions, maybe billions dead from the coming all-out world war....and people will say 'What happened? I thought everything was OK'!

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 12:02 | 719471 Crab Cake
Crab Cake's picture

Sadly, he who shoots first is more likely to win given the state of technology.  So, I could definitely see the war starting "from out of nowhere".

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 13:10 | 719560 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

Nice to see some agreement about the inevitable for a change. Old habits die hard.

The elite worry about the current state of unrest being displayed by the Sheeple. War (and now terrorism) has been the traditional mechanism to diver attention away from their manipulative and thieving activities. They also worry about overpopulation which is something they can not control the way they control economies and governments.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 16:01 | 720145 thefatasswilly
thefatasswilly's picture

Well, we do need to eliminate a couple of billion mouths and oxygen users in order for humanity to reach an equilibrium with available resources.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 16:42 | 720254 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Jane Fonda, is that you?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgpa7wEAz7I

Regards

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 20:14 | 720599 wake the roach
wake the roach's picture

 

Well, we do need to eliminate a couple of billion mouths and oxygen users in order for humanity to reach an equilibrium with available resources.

 

Agreed...

Fuck the poor, uneducated and hungry people of this world. They breed like rats, nothing but human trash and they brought it all upon themselves. Darwin proved it, its only through competition, survival of the fittest that we evolve. We should strike first no matter what the price. With them gone, we can consume 100 times more resources and infinitely without the need to resort to a primative and dangerous economic model of global resource equality, egality and the weakest of human traits, compassion. And no more medicins sans frontieres or world vision commercials to depress us when we get home from an honest hard days work and want to relax and enjoy a simple microwave dinner in front of the TV. With say, oh 5 billion less people on the planet, the free market and the math of the economic profit sytem of exchange would finally work the way we think it should. To hell with left wing socialist dialectics and measurement relativity, black is black and white is white. 1 is one and 0 is zero, end of story. Without competition, we all die so its not a question of racial, cultural or national superiority. Hitler was not a bad man, he was just realistic, is that really a crime or just pure honesty? I for one am not an elitist, it's just proven mathematical and scientific linear logic. At this make or break moment of choice for the future of the collective human species, we can not afford to allow radical and unproven economic theory's (more like communist ideology right?) to push us from the safe path of  natural evolution. Sometimes, natural laws forces us to make hard choices, it does not work vice versa. Should we sacrifice our evolved western way of life for the primative majority of 21st century savages??? To the educated mind it is  not even a question worth asking. It's us or them. There is no possible way for 7 billion people to live a life of true wealth. Sure, we have the technological ability right now to provide for the material wellbeing of every human being on the planet and with almost unbelievable energy and natural resource efficiency but where are we supposed to get the gold and silver to do it???

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 02:29 | 721431 wake the roach
wake the roach's picture

And just in case anyone does not understand that I was taking the piss, I do not believe that the mass murder of our fellow global citizens is an acceptable option to achieve the state of consumption nirvana. Oh, and resource sustainability is a myth, no such thing folks. Just greater resource efficiency. If man is to survive into the next millenium, we will have to colonise new planets. Entropy is a tough game to play ;-)

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 15:56 | 723039 thefatasswilly
thefatasswilly's picture

I agree with your last point; we NEED to expand into space. We are capable technologically, but political and social complications prevent it.

How do we eliminate these complications? One world government. How can that be accomplished?

Mass murder.

Who should die? The relatively intelligent, or the relatively fucking stupid?

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 13:55 | 719804 MeTarzanUjane
MeTarzanUjane's picture

My sisters uncle is on sabbatical at an observatory in Alaska(I cannot say which one I hope you understand) not far from The HAARP Project. One night last week during his shift he used an ion-infrared filter on the telescope and pointed it over the area that HAARP uses and he said that his field of vision was totally blocked because of the intensity of the beam. He has never seen it so intense.

He said "they have gone full retard with that thing and they will not stop until the upper atmosphere is totally destroyed".

Something or someone is going to melt.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 16:16 | 720197 TeamAmerica
TeamAmerica's picture

Something has gone full retard, but it's not HAARP.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 17:51 | 720430 kiwidor
kiwidor's picture

They are not trying to destroy it, they're trying to use it as a shield.  Of course, in the process, they may destroy it.  <tee hee>

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 10:43 | 719197 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Commodities back down... maybe. But gold and silver as a refuge will go up.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 11:10 | 719284 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

Eventually... expect some movement both ways prior..

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 10:44 | 719201 Revolution_star...
Revolution_starts_now's picture

unintended consequences,

Bitchez

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 10:54 | 719232 Careless Whisper
Careless Whisper's picture

that's right. dolla vs. euro currency wars? this is how it ends:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lYehqE0rMMQ

 

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 11:08 | 719274 MsCreant
MsCreant's picture

Looks about right. Wow!

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 11:12 | 719289 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

more blood and then the audience starts tearing into itself

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 13:59 | 719813 Cruel Aid
Cruel Aid's picture

He said "whoever gets up first is the winner"

It fits!

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 10:44 | 719202 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

Slainte, bitches!!!

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 10:48 | 719212 Charles Mackay
Charles Mackay's picture

Sorry, but I don't 'get' how the ECB, with a firm monetary policy, will make the Euro less valuable than the dollar. 

 

Perhaps JT didn't notice that QE2 doesn't even launch until tomorrow.  The Euro may become valueless, but in the race to the bottom, the US dollar will win if QE2 goes as planned.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 10:53 | 719230 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

looks like they want to shake some weak hands out before the relentless fed buying begins.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 11:54 | 719441 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

$39fuckingB by next Thursday 12:00 EST!!!!!

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 11:21 | 719318 Charley
Charley's picture

What is money used for?

It is used to buy stuff.

If demand for euro-output comes from dollars and not euros, what happens?

Output flows toward demand.

Tight euro policy means demand shifts from euros to dollars. Growth in the euro-zone becomes increasingly denominated in dollars. Even if the ECB wants to slow economic expansion, this economic expansion will take the form of dollars. Businesses will exploit demand from whatever source it comes -- euros or dollars. If your currency is euros, but your demand is coming from dollars, a currency crisis will arise sooner or later.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 11:29 | 719353 Sour Grapes
Sour Grapes's picture

The ECB's policies are not much more "firm" than anyone else's, they just use different terminology for their money printing.

The US, UK and Japan call it QE when they monetize government debt.

The ECB calls it a repo.  European banks buy the bonds of the various bankrupt EU countries, then use the bonds for collateral for a loan from the ECB.  The effect is the same as QE- the central bank has issued new currency and it ultimately owns the sovereign debt.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 10:49 | 719214 doomandbloom
doomandbloom's picture

for the past 2 years...it has been either news of dollar failing OR euro failing...none of them actually fail....is seems like a see saw game to prop the dollar for 3 months and then euro for the other 3?

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 10:53 | 719229 xenophobe51
xenophobe51's picture

No, they're both falling for reals.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 12:17 | 719537 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

+1.72 hehe.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 11:07 | 719267 umop episdn
umop episdn's picture

It is a see-saw game. First one, then the other, not exactly failing but falling. I am guessing that it is kind of like our US political puppets...first red, then blue, on and on and on! However, Au and Ag have been hitting new highs in major currencies at the same time, which is new.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 11:09 | 719276 tmosley
tmosley's picture

They've both been falling against gold.  That's all you really need to know.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 11:14 | 719295 AbandonShip
AbandonShip's picture

Purchasing Power is the best way to evaluate relative strength of a currency.  Gold is a good benchmark typically, or commodities could work too.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 10:51 | 719221 Rudolf Havenstein
Rudolf Havenstein's picture

 

The euro has already topped and will decline until it is priced like an Italian lira in the next few months.

Very funny!

Humor I suppose?


Thu, 11/11/2010 - 14:42 | 719900 Byte Me
Byte Me's picture

Shortly to be outdone by the US Dinar...

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 13:44 | 722559 Green Leader
Green Leader's picture

Very shortly.

RV soon.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 10:52 | 719226 americanspirit
americanspirit's picture

Nice summmary of the likely near-term future for Europe. Plenty of fuel for riots, stoppages, bank runs, effigy burning, etc. Since the 'homeland' police state is ready to pounce at the first sign of people gathering anywhere looking angry at anything except the latest game's results, the US is likely to remain quiet a bit longer as economic desperation grows slowly toward unbearable. Better to have a few riots now to blow off steam than what is bottled up and coming for the US, but that's not going to happen. So let's just watch those videos from Europe on the nightly news and think - look at all them crazy fuckers!! What do they think they're going to accomplish?? Pop. Slurp.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 11:17 | 719301 macholatte
macholatte's picture

Aren't the "riots" really demonstrations by special interest groups like civil servants and students?  The real danger begins when the general population (middle class) gets upset. I don't believe we've seen anything close to that yet.

 

Many of you are well enough off that the tax cuts may have helped you. We're saying that for America to get back on track, we're probably going to cut that short and not give it to you. We're going to take things away from you on behalf of the common good.
Hillary Clinton

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 12:58 | 719661 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

Aren't the "riots" really demonstrations by special interest groups like civil servants and students?

From where I sit, that seems to be the case. 

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 13:29 | 719733 DosZap
DosZap's picture

Only stupid people will start fires,(as in the past) and riot bare handed ,with 2x4's, basball bats,turn over cars,chunk bottles etc.

Difference this time, is they won't be doing it ALL in their neighborhoods.And look for a shitload of shootings, looting, and robberies.

This will be a major issue,as our establishment protectors are not nearly as non physical as our European cousins.

This time people(except hard core criminals, and you average street thief),will be going after the Establishment,they will focus on who got them here.

I pray this is not the case,but I see no way around it.

 

 

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 10:53 | 719228 Orly
Orly's picture

Love this guy!

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 10:55 | 719236 lsbumblebee
lsbumblebee's picture

If the "tea party" has an agenda to starve the beast, it will be Hamilton's "great beast" that suffers, and not their corporate donors.

http://blogs.forbes.com/brianwingfield/2010/10/20/the-tea-partys-puzzlin...

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 13:00 | 719665 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

Do not confuse the national and well-funded "Tea Party Express" thing that claims to represent Tea Parties nationwide with the real, dispersed and unorganized local Tea Parties.  I knmow it's convenient for everyone to do so, and put us all in the same pot so that they can cast aspersions at us, but it is not correct to do so.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 13:32 | 719744 lsbumblebee
lsbumblebee's picture

What is an "unorganized" political party?

If you belong to a local political group calling itself the "tea party", how could you not expect to be affiliated with the organized "tea party" that is recognized by the MSM?

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 14:02 | 719819 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

How about you think outside the box and realize that ANYTHING not supporting the status quo must be labeled and marginalized. Being "unorganized" presents a minimal target profile and should only foolishly be dismissed as ineffective.

There are likely far more citizens sympathetic to the revolutionary undercurrent than the fuckstick talking heads care to consider or admit.

 

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 14:13 | 719842 lsbumblebee
lsbumblebee's picture

I'm talking about misidentification.

What are you talking about?

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 14:28 | 719874 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Misidentification as a tool.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 15:38 | 720065 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

UR as in woodpile?  Like that..

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 20:14 | 720746 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Not sure I follow.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 18:48 | 720542 piceridu
piceridu's picture

well said...the quiet ones are the most dangerous

 

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 20:13 | 720743 Uncle Remus
Uncle Remus's picture

Ah, but dangerous to whom?

Mon, 11/15/2010 - 11:08 | 727477 SWRichmond
SWRichmond's picture

What is an "unorganized" political party?

Local Tea Party groups are not political parties.  The national Tea Party Express thing is an attempt to corral the disorganized local groups under the umbrella of the republican party, where they can be "embraced, extended and extinguished."

Trust me, we are quite disorganized.  In spite of that, we are also quite effective. 

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 10:55 | 719239 RobotTrader
RobotTrader's picture

Everything is getting dumped today.

No place to hide.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 10:58 | 719250 spartan117
spartan117's picture

CSCO down 15%. 

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 11:10 | 719279 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Just an opportunity for The Fed and the PDs to pick it up cheaper than yesterday

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 11:04 | 719260 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Oh yeah, it's down $1 as I type this, so obviously your chart isn't misleading (as usual).

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 11:14 | 719293 DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

somethin about a broken clock

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 14:12 | 719840 dehdhed
dehdhed's picture

it's up $3.50 as i type this

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 11:12 | 719290 tmosley
tmosley's picture

You're a fucking con artist.  I honestly can't believe that Tyler allows liars and obfuscators of truth like you to keep contributor status.

Maybe I'm missing something, and you're just another dumb shit Stephen Colbert impersonator.  But I just don't see it.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 11:42 | 719384 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

How the hell did RoboT get contributor status? Is he Tylers brother in law or somethin?

Gold still at $1401, a new high that was just reached a few days ago, and he calls it 'DUMPING'?

 

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 13:37 | 719766 Ripped Chunk
Ripped Chunk's picture

Go Robo.

Nothing seems to be more entertaining than jerking the gold bugs around. They go instantly ballistic. Like that kid in school with the real bad temper. Of course you are going to push his buttons and watch the show.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 13:48 | 719787 tmosley
tmosley's picture

If you like trolling, go to /b/.  

All I want is for Robo to concede when things don't go his way, rather than to just disappear, or talk about something totally irrelevant when gold is going up, and cherry pick every "gold down" chart that ever appears.

It's fine with me if someone has a different opinion, but when they are flat out dishonest in their postings, that just pisses me off.  It was the same with Johnny Bravo.  There are lots of people on this board who are deflationists, and thus feel that they must not buy gold.  That's fine, if they can back it up, or even if they can't back it up, so long as they don't fucking lie about it.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 11:24 | 719307 Quintus
Quintus's picture

You mean to say that all of the overnight rise in Gold has been wiped out once trading starts on the Comex?  No!  I don't believe it!  That's never happened before.

 

Gimme a break Robo.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 11:20 | 719315 AbandonShip
AbandonShip's picture

I wonder how many junks Robo has collected to-date? 

There should be a limit and then some behavior modification kicks in (e.g., a temporary account freeze and then gradually more severe consequences).  His antics really detract from the overall value of ZH.

I suppose he could keep creating new accounts but we could figure out how to police that as well.

Or how about we let the ZH community police themselves somehow.

Thoughts Tyler?

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 11:26 | 719340 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

A simple solution is what some blogs have...people rate postings and have the ability to filter postings based on a rating system so you do not see frivolous material.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 11:41 | 719388 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

His antics really detract from the overall value of ZH.

Really ?

You may want to go over the rules again ...

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 11:46 | 719397 AbandonShip
AbandonShip's picture

Por favor, link to rules? Thanks.

That's fine, I just need an easy way to tune him out.  I like Lumbergh's idea.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 11:53 | 719438 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WELvpeYo5m0

 

Robo is just busting ballz of the gold crew. His call to go into stocks as pomo started late aug( turd closed his shorts ) would have made you a pile-o-cash .....

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 12:11 | 719507 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Would have made you a pile of cash'...nah, not according to real conversion data. Robo's POMO riches are a wash, DOW 6,500=DOW 11,400, so youre way down if youre still holding the POMO pump in stocks. Damn, real world is a bitch.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 12:23 | 719552 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

What if you make 25 % in 2 weeks ... 50% in four weeks?

Late august amzn was at $120.00 (dollar at 84)

Oct. 26 amzn $170.00 (dollar at 78.50) I'll take that .... 6 weeks!!! BIDU,GOOG,APPL many made the same kind of move. In the cheaper stocks you could have made even more.

LasVegasSands was at $28 aug 27 before pomo .... It hit 50 last week.

 

 

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 12:54 | 719650 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Call it however you'd like to see it, but heres recent ZH pointing out with a cool chart how DOW 6,500 = DOW 11,400.

A Dollar-Devaluation Adjusted Market Has Barely Moved Above Its 2009 Lows | zero hedge

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 13:56 | 719807 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Live by the hand of the Fed, die by the hand of the Fed.

What are you people going to do when the Fed decides that it is in its best interests to suddenly change course?  Buy Microsoft instead of Amazon?  What happens to your positions if they decide the banks need to be closed?  What do you do when the next flash crash happens, and there is no recovery?

It's great to cherry pick stocks and pretend it's going to make you rich.  More likely, you are gong to end up bankrupt sucking dick for nickels behind 7/11, right next to Robo.

But in any event, may your chains rest lightly upon you, and may history forget that we were of the same species.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 14:09 | 719814 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

It's great to cherry pick stocks and pretend it's going to make you rich.  More likely, you are gong to end up bankrupt sucking dick for nickels behind 7/11, right next to Robo.

 

I have no debt. Thanks.

But I hear your mother loooooooves balls across the chin .........

 

Good luck. Gold coin ???? 50Buckzzzzzzzz

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gk5aRIz17fk

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 18:00 | 720440 kiwidor
kiwidor's picture

Are the nickels made of pure nickel?  A nickel/silver alloy?  or some debased mix?  Nickel is a bitch to smelt , but i can make bullets with it :)

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 12:38 | 719556 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

The sheep knows. Keep up Smailes.

Robot (aka General Hindsight) might be a quick-draw when it comes to jumping the shark, but that doesn't make its calls correct, unless you are too lazy to watch the posts' timing.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 13:45 | 719779 Spalding_Smailes
Spalding_Smailes's picture

*yawn*... Next.

Spend some time reading today. It's good for you.

Regards

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 15:15 | 719936 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Gosh, you're right! Reading is good for me!

by GoinFawr
on Fri, 10/15/2010 - 17:37
#654224

"What a joke you are Robo; you pick one of the worst performers of a sector and put it up against one of the best of another. I mean how ridiculous, I hope you don't expect anyone to take your crap seriously.

For some reason Yamana seems to be one of the most hated mining stocks around...  But thanks for the tip, now at least I know who to load up on come Monday. Oh, and short too (I've always wanted to take a bite out of Eh-Puhl, in a quick 'Robin Hooder')..."

Care to guess what happened Monday night AH Smailesy?

 I'll give you a hint: "itimber". My my, that was quick and easy bitz of pretty polly. Locksley would be proud.

Now, just for fun, put AUY against AAPL from Oct.18th up to today...

Amazing what a little reading can do! Thanks for the advice, 'Alice'.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Srn0xkXTSgs

 Best Regards

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 12:12 | 719509 oddjob
oddjob's picture

50 bucks says the Smailes kid eats it.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 12:26 | 719568 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-jlQS-Wuc0

 

Caddyshack!

Whew, that was buggin' me.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 11:41 | 719390 AbandonShip
AbandonShip's picture

Me likes the sound of it. Could it be easily abused or turned against the value-creating posters unfairly?

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 11:51 | 719429 Cheesy Bastard
Cheesy Bastard's picture

A simpler soultion would be to scroll past his stuff if you don't want to read it.  I do not agree with Robo, but if we eliminate differing opinions before long we will all be just agreeing and patting each other on the back.  One big happy circle jerk.  No thanks.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 12:01 | 719467 Bill Lumbergh
Bill Lumbergh's picture

Very true.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 12:03 | 719477 Oh regional Indian
Oh regional Indian's picture

A winner from Cheesy.

Same like people getting into endless diatribes with HarryW. Everyone's opinion counts, unless it's delivered with Ad hominem attacks or needless poor form.

Go on Robo, we're all watching. Plus, isn't this a Fight Club inspired site?

And, his calls are a traders calls, maybe most here are hoard and watchers? The junkers and naysayers that is?

ORI

http://aadivaahan.wordpress.com

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 12:34 | 719596 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Agreed ORI, except that as a contributor with 'special privileges' like chart posting Robot has an obligation to behave responsibly.

"With great power comes great..." and all that cal.

To be honest, I am beginning to wonder about the objectivity of ZH, considering what seem to be the general leanings of the majority of those that can post things that most can't.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 12:46 | 719633 OdinsBeard
OdinsBeard's picture

I hear you GoinFawr.  CD has great insight into what makes people like Robot tick.  Of course one would be an idiot to assume that some posters here are not part of the establishment.

 

In these days, one needs a sound moral compass, good analysis and memory and the ability to sift the wheat from the chaff.  Unfortunately, sound morals have in all too many people been replaced with "me first" (sounds a bit like survival of the fittest doesn't it!).

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 19:00 | 720565 piceridu
piceridu's picture

+...the old west was much better than the new one

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 11:53 | 719439 Orly
Orly's picture

He says, "Get long," and you somehow find that annoying and an abuse of this forum?  I thought this was supposed to be a free exchange of ideas, not just the ones you like.

You, I am afraid, are the idiot.  Maybe you should talk to yourself in the mirror.  That would be a solution to that problem.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 12:04 | 719479 earnyermoney
earnyermoney's picture

I like his posts because his opinions/ideas are different than mine. I wish TD would get rid of the Junk button. Tired of people trying to impose thought control. Skip his posts if you think they're uniformative.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 12:31 | 719580 jdrose1985
jdrose1985's picture

Who gave you a voice, douchebag?

Do you wanna be a cop or something?

Go away, read the threads on here from the earliest stages of ZH and come back if you can manage to self-modify your behaviour.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 12:58 | 719652 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Actually, the problem is Robot is like the cop in Canada: they have guns and the people they police don`t.

Robot has weapons like cherry-picked chart posts, and the ability to put up images that, while generally easy on the eyes, make pages crawl slower than a spider in a refrigerator.  Most here don`t have these in their arsenal.

You`re totally right: alternatives to anyone`s opinions should be welcomed on ZH. But they will only avoid denigration if they are backed up by reason instead of spam, sham, hype and hindsight.

eg.s like Machoman jump to mind, hell even Mako. And many others too. But certainly not Robotrader.

JMHO, natch.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 13:10 | 719698 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

Danke ! ?

 

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 13:34 | 719754 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Szivesen MM.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 12:17 | 719535 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Gold $1,409...RoboT takes his stool in the corner, pukes up a bit of blood and says 'Cut me, Mick'...I'm goin back in'!!

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 13:58 | 719812 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Nope, he disappears.  Until the other guy trips on the street one day.  He will then reappear with a picture and pretend like he called it.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 13:53 | 719803 redpill
redpill's picture

It REALLY must piss Robo off that gold is holding above $1400.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 14:25 | 719868 doolittlegeorge
doolittlegeorge's picture

nice recovery off lows tho.  Bet on failure of the Federal Government to pop what they wish to be a "gold bubble."  cross purposes between the Fed which openly wants inflation and regulators which now are saying "Uncle" vis a vis the market.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 15:35 | 720057 Mr Lennon Hendrix
Mr Lennon Hendrix's picture

That chart is sexier than anything you have ever posted!  Buy the dips, haha!

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 18:14 | 720478 Hulk
Hulk's picture

+1409

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 11:00 | 719255 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

"With Europe and the US in recession next year, commodity prices will drop again"

What a dope.

I read these notes from John Taylor because, generally, he has some good points to make. However, it never ceases to amaze me how many decent economic thinkers are completely hung up on the simple demand-side logic of pricing. To say that recession will cause commodity prices to drop displays a total lack of critical thought and a general acceptance of status quo.

Can we not all agree that the FED is printing money at a furious pace in order to keep interest rates low? In the recession Taylor predicts, QE will only increase as rates must be kept low for growth and money must be printed to replace lost tax revenue.

Awash in dollars, the world will see rapid price inflation of all goods priced in dollars. This has nothing to do with demand. It is Econ 101. More money chasing a fixed supply of goods raises the cost. Period.

And this is where we are fucked, as Gonzalo eloquently pointed out yesterday. Our shitty economy will continue to shed jobs and those out of work will get squeezed harder and harder as they attempt to shelter and feed their families. We are entering a real "Grapes of Wrath" stage. Only those of us who have prepared will be able to weather the storm. 

 


Thu, 11/11/2010 - 11:10 | 719280 CU1981
CU1981's picture

+++Exactly Turd !!

 

 

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 11:16 | 719298 Orly
Orly's picture

He sees things from the perspective of 4X and he's damn good at it.

 

The inflation you expect won't happen unless two things happen as well: a.) wages must rise quickly and, b.) the money in the banks has to actually move and create credit expansion.

I really don't see any of these things happening right now, while I do see Mr. Taylor's point about the Euro being priced at a premium, Deutschmark-style, while it doesn't deserve that rating.

The bedbugs in Europe have been put under the rug for now but they have a way of finding the mattress.  Now, they are coming home to roost.  Credit spreads on Greek CDSs +800bps?  insane.

That is what will not end well.

:D

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 11:25 | 719336 What_Me_Worry
What_Me_Worry's picture

That is correct about simple inflation.  However, loss of faith in a currency is what really gets the ball rolling(the H-word).  My guess is as long as China considers it good it will be just fine.

The Euro is backed by actual gold, though.  Seems like that should put somewhat of a floor in there somewhere.  While the FRN isn't backed by any gold, as far as I know.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 14:06 | 719828 johny2
johny2's picture

dollar should never have survived 2008 if you looked at this from this way. but it got stronger and was THE best safety asset. which makes me believe the most important asset, is not oil, gold, silver etc, it IS MILITARY !  USA dollar is backed by the most powerfull army in the world, and in the times of crises, it is the ultimate asset. nothing changes.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 11:28 | 719344 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

"The inflation you expect won't happen unless two things happen as well: a.) wages must rise quickly and, b.) the money in the banks has to actually move and create credit expansion."

Wrong. You are falling into the same, demand-side trap.

Remember your Econ 101. There are two types of inflation, not just one. All anyone thinks of anymore is demand-pull inflation. Rising wages, economic expansion, increased employment can all lead to demand-pull inflation. Since this is the world we've inhabited (thanks to the Fed) for most of our lives, its all anyone recalls from their Econ classes.

What is coming is cost-push inflation. It has nothing to do with demand. Cost-push inflation is generated by the rising cost of inputs to final products. What are inputs? Basic core materials such as cotton, sugar, oil, wheat and on and on. If producers do not pass along these cost increases to consumers, the producers will go out of business as their margins go flat to negative.

Oh yes, inflation is coming. It is most definitely coming whether you care to see it or not.

 


Thu, 11/11/2010 - 11:38 | 719380 AbandonShip
AbandonShip's picture

Thanks TF.  Your educated opinions are actually refreshing for a change.  So which inflation is worse (i.e., harder to rectify): a. cost-push or b. demand-pull?   I don't remember my Econ profs discussing this aspect of inflation.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 11:55 | 719435 Turd Ferguson
Turd Ferguson's picture

Hmmm. Your question is similar to: what's better, death by firing squad or electric chair?

At least in the demand-pull scenario, you can make the "rising tide lifts all boats" analogy. Everyone's employed. Everyone is earning and spending more. Most everyone is happy.

In cost-push, you deal with real pain. Un and/or under-employed people, struggling to get by, getting nailed with higher and higher costs for the staples of life. 

My grandparents used to say that the Great Depression wasn't all that terrible IF you had a job. It was the 25% of the population that couldn't find work who were fucked. This was your "Grapes of Wrath" crowd. Well, they're out there again. John Williams says the true U-6 number is almost 23%. 2011 is going to be a very mean year. Prepare accordingly.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 11:57 | 719452 Xedus129
Xedus129's picture

Here's another question:

7.62 or 5.56?

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 12:16 | 719529 trav7777
trav7777's picture

easiest question of the day...7.62.

Review what this round can do against cinder blocks and other light cover.  7.62S turns light cover into concealment and can penetrate and cause backsplatter spalling which can injure or kill.

The 5.56 in M4 barrel length is ridiculously deficient in terminal performance except at close range.  Even in M16 length, it won't penetrate cinderblock or brick.  Take some construction materials to the range and see for yourself.

If you mean 7.62 NATO then there isn't even a question

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 12:24 | 719557 Xedus129
Xedus129's picture

So what would you recommend, I am going to "trade" my silver for a nice AR this winter.  My uncle has an SKS and I like that gun but I figure I'll get some recommendations from people here first.  I have heard the CZ-AK is nice, I don't know too much about them though.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 14:22 | 719857 Shameful
Shameful's picture

What do you want it for?  Hunting, self defense, target shooting, waiting for when SHTF?  The M4 is great for a smaller 5.56 rifle, light and still accurate but lacks a punch.  7.62N is a great round.  But those rifles tend to be heavier and more expensive.  I haven't priced checked them in a while but I know the Armalite AR-10 was reasonably priced a few months back and that's a good weapon.  If your not reloading and want 7.62N I know there are FN FAL imports which were not that expensive.  They can mangle cases but if you don't care about reloading then it's a great rifle.

Honestly I would just hit a couple gun forums and ask questions.  You can find a lot of opinionated and very knowledgeable people, and they will mostly likely gladly deluge you with info when you let them know what you want.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 14:26 | 719867 ColonelCooper
ColonelCooper's picture

While I agree with the 7.62 sentiment, since it sounds as though you are only going to have one rifle, I'm going to go the other way and say 5.56.

Cheaper and more readily available ammo. 

More available spare mags and parts

Easier for novice shooters to practice

AR platform is much lighter in 5.56 than 7.62

Still suitable for any game smaller than black bear

5.56 will kill you just as dead if you practice, practice, practice.

 

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 14:38 | 719891 Xedus129
Xedus129's picture

Well I have shotguns, and hunting rifles but I wanted a semi-auto rifle.

I will probably check out both this winter and see what I like.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 16:06 | 720163 impending doom
impending doom's picture

Pretty arbitrary, Col. I assume you mean the 7.62x51mm.

7.62 is just as available and way cheaper than 5.56, currently (7.62x39mm).

There are tons of surplus AK mags for $10-12; AK's rarely need spare parts.

AK is easier for novices to learn to operate and maintain.

The AK definitely weighs more, no way around it.

Suitable for anything smaller than a grizzley bear.

If you need to practice, practice, practice to get deadly efficient, then the ammo isn't going to be cheap. Besides, by that logic you should just get a 22lr and practice, practice, practice, practice...

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 20:06 | 720720 RECISION
RECISION's picture

Read Thomas Chittum's opinion on this.

Reckons "assault" rifles are for armies.

If you are talking SHTF, Bosnia/Sarajevo type of stuff, then get a proper hunting rifle.

(and then actually READ why he said to do that)

http://www.resist.com/CWII.pdf

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 12:31 | 722229 impending doom
impending doom's picture

Thanks for the link. Always looking for new reading material. It's kind of long though, so it might take me a bit to get through it and reply.

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 12:51 | 722331 impending doom
impending doom's picture

Well, that went a lot faster than I anticipated. Sorry, never made it to the firearms part; the blatant white-supremacist propaganda of the first 3 or 4 chapters I read were quite enough for me. "Oh noes, the blacks and the mexicans are taking over! The white man can't be poor! It just isn't right!!!" I'll keep my assault rifles, thanks. They can be used to hunt both stupid people and stupid animals...

Fri, 11/12/2010 - 17:47 | 723415 RECISION
RECISION's picture

the blatant white-supremacist propaganda of the first 3 or 4 chapters I read were quite enough for me. "Oh noes, the blacks and the mexicans are taking over! The white man can't be poor! It just isn't right!!!"

Yeah, I know.  All that is pretty lame.

You just have to push past the trash and pick out the bits that are interesting and useful.

A bit like ZeroHedge really, haha.

In a nutshell, he was saying about a combat situation, if you have a mass army assaulting an objective, then you need mass firepower. Which is what an assault rifle is good for.

Otherwise, in relatively static "front" type of situation, you will need really good optics (The bastards are REALLY hard to see) and the ability to reach out more than 1-2 hundred yards.  Also, if you shoot even half a dozen rounds a day, you have had a big day. These things simply aren't zombie-human wave attacks. They are hunting or static-sniping type situations.

Ohh... and a bigger 300 Win Mag type round is what you need for range and power etc...


Thu, 11/11/2010 - 14:48 | 719909 Grifter
Grifter's picture

Newb to the semi-auto rifle space myself, but spent some time researching before I made a few purchases, if you go the 7.62 route, consider looking into the Arsenal SLR series, you will find largely positive reviews from people with a ton more knowledge about this stuff than I do.  I picked up a SLR-95 a few months back and have been very satisfied with it so far.  It's a milled receiver so it is definitely a little heavier.  However, it can take a beating and simply will not fail, from what I've read.

Just got a SIG556 SCM (I live in NYS so I can't get any of the other configurations legally) and haven't had a chance to take it out yet.  Folks on GunBroker have all dropped their asking price for it sub-$1K in recent weeks.  My younger bro was a USMC Combat Engineer and had a chance to play with them in Iraq, nothing but good things to say about it.

Just my .02 - like I said, I'm still a newb though.  Learning, though.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 15:57 | 720133 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

PTR-91 American made HK-91 clone, excellent weapon, heavy but very robust the AK of nato 7.62 rifles, no gas tubes no nothing, just tough..  Mags are cheap and that my friend is important and eats every ammo you can jam in the tube.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 12:57 | 719658 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

+7.62!

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 14:12 | 719839 Shameful
Shameful's picture

Ok I have to agree with you but I still love the M4.  Wouldn't want it as my only piece, but it is nice and light, and still accurate out to a few hundred yards but lacks punch as you point out.  You are totally right about 7.62N, if you are fighting "deer" then much better off with 7.62.  Especially if the "deer" are using armor or cover.

Though if I had to beat feet and take what I owned on my back I might pick that M4 over a bigger rifle.  Don't want to be in a fight, if I'm running and want to be as light as possible.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 14:41 | 719899 Xedus129
Xedus129's picture

Don't want to be in a fight, if I'm running and want to be as light as possible.


That's kind of what I am thinking, though I have been really trying to step up the cardio and weight training at the gym lately, and I can run with a lot of extra weight. Gotta be in shape for when SHTF :)

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 15:30 | 720033 impending doom
impending doom's picture

Right on, Trav! Check this video from the marines showing various calibers vs drywall, brick and concrete block: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=6760530260633420235#  No contest! I love how the advice they give to overcome the insufficient penetration of the 5.56 is to just keep shooting; eventually you'll get through...

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 18:57 | 720558 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

That's .308 Winchester to most of us stateside.  Be damned careful what is stamped on your barrels folks, as there are slight differences between the .308 WIN and the 7.62 NATO that may matter in your rifle.  My guess is in the U.S. prefer a .308WIN, from an ammo supply variety standpoint.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 12:29 | 719577 wisefool
wisefool's picture

Probably 5.56. When people come to trade they'll want the round that is easier to transport.

What I really want to know is how the denominations of US metal get re-assigned after the crash, since nobody will accept the paper. I think dimes will become the new $5 equivalent. Pennies will trade as $1. Nickels as $.50 equivilant, Quarters stay quarters but are the lowest denomination widely used.

1x5.56 = $20 worth of todays goods.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 16:19 | 720206 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

Probably 5.56. When people come to trade they'll want the round that is easier to transport.

IMO wrong, they will want the most effective one shot round, the miniscule difference in weight between the two is not representative of the vast differences in effectiveness.   Deer size game hit with 7.62 x 51 stays down 5.56 will often not be a reliable one shot stop for game of this size.  5.56 is not legal for deer hunting in many states for this reason.  Of course personal preference rules and ymmv.

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 12:08 | 719494 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

I'll go with cost-push being harder to rectify...  There are recent and tried and true playbooks for demand-pull...  cost-push is a whole different beast and constantly dances with confidence in the underlying currency.

Although, there is a built in ceiling.  Essentially, if costs cannot be passed on to consumers and producers go belly up as a result, then what happens to prices?  Eventually, they must come in line with ability to pay...  or those inputs lie dormant... 

 

Thu, 11/11/2010 - 12:16 | 719532 Orly
Orly's picture

...and with wages not rising to meet that hike in prices...

I'm just saying.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!