John Taylor: "Next Year Is Going To Be Truly Miserable" And QE 3 Will Come
As usual, FX Concept's John Taylor (not the guy with the inflation rule, or the guy with the bass guitar) does not sugarcoat his views, and as disclosed by his latest outlook on the world, things, especially if there is no QE3, are about to get much worse: "Next year is going to be pretty miserable." The reason: the same one that caused us to predict, correctly, late in 2010 when we mocked Goldman's call for a US economic renaissance, namely that with the Fed blowing its wad on QE2 at a time when fiscal "consolidation" was about to become the norm in Washington, that the impact of monetary policy would have an increasingly less pronounced impact. We are surprised by how few people still get it: that cutting deficits at the same time as monetary easing is ending, will be an unmitigated disaster for the economy, and, yes, eventually the markets: "I'm afraid that the cutting the deficit means cutting final demand. It means the economy is going to slow. It might not be a bad thing to cut the deficit, but unfortunately, when you cut the deficit, you're going to get a slowdown. The more you cut the deficit, the worse it's going to be." As a reminder, DC hopes to cut up to $4 trillion in future deficits. And this is happening as the president is entering the fight for his second term. Basically, his only reelection chance, now that Europe is fully austere and China is tightening is some miracle out of Japan (which will not happen), or, cue surprise, the Fed, and QE 3. Ironically, the only hope left for the administration is that "this time it is different" and the Fed can get it right. Which it can't. But it won't stop it from trying. Taylor agrees: "QE 3 will start or not? No. No more? Well, eventually it will start I would argue. I think the fed has to really see the economy printing minus numbers first." So there's the benchmark: contraction, or at least collapsing growth. Which is precisely where we are now. Yes, QE3 is a certainty, and when it is announced, to borrow a phrase, hide your kids, hide your wife, and certainly hide your gold.