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John Taylor: "The Nice Risk Rally Since The First Half Of 2009 Is Ending" And Will Be Replaced By A "Scary Descent"

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Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:08 | 1271268 Cassandra Syndrome
Cassandra Syndrome's picture

Taylor Rule Bitchez

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:09 | 1271280 oh_bama
oh_bama's picture

He is WAY TOO BEARISH!

hehe.

Now BTFD still RULES

 

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:53 | 1271453 falak pema
falak pema's picture

Taylor, tinker, soldier, spy!

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 13:17 | 1272218 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 with the thesis of the article; Agree. I think the stock market has already done it's top formation.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:05 | 1271269 oogs66
oogs66's picture

The sooner the PIGS go the sooner we can move on to real fixes in Europe

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:11 | 1271278 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

PIGS are nothing compared to US debt, when does the US finally have to face facts?

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:10 | 1271284 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

When the world quits using the dollar...  And the US proles revolt because the the gov't can no longer afford to give them beer and cable teevee.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:21 | 1271318 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Looks like its pretty near.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 10:29 | 1271633 Calmyourself
Calmyourself's picture

I also hope the reset is near so children can have a chance. It is not going to happen soon, the reserve currency will take years to fall. The suffering will be longer than most think possible. Then it will be engineered into a new paradigm, the American people as a whole are woefully ignorant and easy to herd.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 11:42 | 1271873 MrPike
MrPike's picture

By real fixes you mean the abolition of the socialist mentality that causes governments to spend irresponsibly?  If so, I agree.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 12:00 | 1271914 el Gallinazo
el Gallinazo's picture

Why do you write PIGS instead of PIIGS? Do you consider Italy outside the group, or is it just sloppy or misinformed?

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 12:31 | 1272048 MrPike
MrPike's picture

It should really be PFIIGS, if you want to get technical.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:07 | 1271276 Glasgow Gary
Glasgow Gary's picture

I agree with Taylor, but, he's been making this call for at least 4 quarters now, yes? These guys have to start owning up more to the trailing record.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:13 | 1271289 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yes and why can they just do whatever they feel like Q after Q? Because the american people are pathetic.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 10:07 | 1271527 Sophist Economicus
Sophist Economicus's picture

On the other hand, his forte is FX not stocks

GG, I agree.   I like reading Taylor's perspective -- But if you invested in his FX projections read on ZH - you would have had your ass handed to you betting against the Euro

 

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:11 | 1271279 LowProfile
LowProfile's picture

I wonder...  Who wrote the insurance on that Greek debt?

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:13 | 1271285 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

People who live in the 'economic only' world are missing the big picture theres a world hot war about to go down.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:37 | 1271385 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

No way, fuzzy mutt

No one wants a war, and it's not in anyone's interest.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:38 | 1271390 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

We need the next deflationary crash to happen before the real war gets going. 

Next up, QE2 ends and the market melts.  Position accordingly.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:59 | 1271486 trav7777
trav7777's picture

we said that about QE1 and it was the time to get long.

if the market melts down again, the government will lose the support of the upper middle and lower upper "trade" classes, IOW, the people with the 401ks.

The market will not be allowed to crash; it's as simple as that.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 10:39 | 1271602 Dangertime
Dangertime's picture

QE3 is way too unpopular, it simply cannot be done.  We have only two ways to re-engage the money printing.

  • The market crashes (or possibly a sharp correction), producing enough popular support for another round of money injections (this is most likey since then the tea-party can be blamed for not extending the debt limit which in turn will be blamed for causing the crash).
  • We allow a serious target to get hit by the terrorists, then we can get the war on.

 

Pick one.

 

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 12:40 | 1272094 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

I think you underestimate QE's popularity among Wall Street banks, and I am certain they have much more influence over this matter than you, me, Congress or anyone else.  The Fed is rogue and answers to no one in our political realm. 

I say after a "Decent Interval," QE3 is on, and QE2.0 Lite will also be busily maintaining the Fed's balance sheet at current levels in the meantime and that will represent a continual flow as well.

And then there's the issue of who will be buying the US treasury bonds we'll be issuing hand over fist? The "free market" has not been buying all this paper. We'll need a crisis, of course, to make these attractive again should the interest rates start to rise during The Decent Interval.

Mark it - this is the way this will go.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 12:41 | 1272096 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

I think you underestimate QE's popularity among Wall Street banks, and I am certain they have much more influence over this matter than you, me, Congress or anyone else.  The Fed is rogue and answers to no one in our political realm. 

I say after a "Decent Interval," QE3 is on, and QE2.0 Lite will also be busily maintaining the Fed's balance sheet at current levels in the meantime and that will represent a continual flow as well.

And then there's the issue of who will be buying the US treasury bonds we'll be issuing hand over fist? The "free market" has not been buying all this paper. We'll need a crisis, of course, to make these attractive again should the interest rates start to rise during The Decent Interval.

Mark it - this is the way this will go.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 17:18 | 1273035 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture

I would add my pick of RRE valuations deteriorating quicker than currently expected (ohh, big shock there) and will maturate right along with your general thesis.  Besides, few hooks work as well with congress.  Heck, this hook worked for a cool few trillion last time.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 17:21 | 1273040 Miles Kendig
Miles Kendig's picture
Fri, 05/13/2011 - 13:25 | 1272112 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

QE2 was `way too unpopular` too. So what`s changed.

Here`s a third option: If Ben cuts down a quadrillion trees to print more fiatscos and nobody sees, does he have to make a sound?

And a fourth: Ben calls up his ol` cronies from GS now running foreign central banks the world over and instructs them to reign in the USD`s peers.

Or a combo of the same.

Game changer: For damn good reasons the USD is no longer the world`s favourite reserve currency, paint all the charts you like, it`s all short term gain for long term pain.

eg. Look at the USD/YEN action today... hasn`t the BOJ been printing like it has never printed before?

You can write any number you like on a scrap of paper, but against real assets its actual value will always be discovered in the long run, no matter how much debt you try to back it with.

Ask yourself: as a creditor would you rather be paid in a currency backed by nothing more than debt rife with counterparty risks, or a hard asset with absolutely none?

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 15:48 | 1272668 Mad Cow
Mad Cow's picture

How is this printed money getting to the real economy when everyone's credit is maxed and the banks aren't lending? Where's the helicopter?

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:10 | 1272762 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Oh the banks are lending all right, just not to the likes of you. As you`ve noticed they`ve already got you maxed out and are now in the process of capturing what is left of your nation, and/or filling their balance sheets with hard assets; where have you been?

Sorry, no helicopters for you.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:15 | 1272769 Mad Cow
Mad Cow's picture

Just helicopters with gun turrets?

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:49 | 1272871 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

Heh, you might see those, sure, but only for a moment just prior to being obliterated. The Jet Rangers brimming with conjured fiat are reserved for the TBTF, or the nations their alumnis at the central banks are working to capture for them.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 16:54 | 1272945 Mad Cow
Mad Cow's picture

Is anyone TBTF?

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:10 | 1271286 Hushups
Hushups's picture

It always cracks me up when someone states that something is statistically impossible and then provides a statistic for how impossible it is.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:12 | 1271295 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Like for instance the formula for showing the US debt is mathematically impossible to ever repay.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:29 | 1271365 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

That's because they mean statistically impossible to occur, not statiscally impossible to calculate.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:49 | 1271440 Ropingdown
Ropingdown's picture

An almost-zero probability means that the thing can happen, but that it won't. (Humorous explanation by Prof. Strang).

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:51 | 1271455 TheTmfreak
TheTmfreak's picture

People tend to never say what they actually mean, nor take "definitions" of words seriously.

It is "more impossible" (har har) statistically for people to get hit by lightning and yet they still do....

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:10 | 1271287 spartan117
spartan117's picture

I recall Taylor calling for the Euro to hit 1.31 before he changed it to 1.42, as it was rising against the USD. 

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:17 | 1271300 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yep, hard to make those calls in an economic slavery world such as ours controlled by these central bankster criminals who just do whatever they feel like because the people are such sheep and will never do anything. I've often said why dont they just seize all americans bank accounts and pensions and jack DOW to 20,000, why not, no one would do anything about it anyway.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:14 | 1271299 LongSoupLine
LongSoupLine's picture

"This is a GREAT time to be buying US equities" - Fortune Magazine's Editor-in-Chief (on CNBS this morning).

 

May that MSM shill ass-pirate be hit by a magazine delivery truck

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:17 | 1271312 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Who is buying 'US equities'...the Bernank. Besides hardly anything is 'US equities' anymore, the entire DOW is basically Chinese and the S&P is now owned by Germany/UK.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:25 | 1271344 youngman
youngman's picture

In todays world of instant messages..who would buy a magazine whos information is at best a week old and probably more....I do not know what to buy.....so I buy gold and silver....just to be safe..and that is the key word....its not to make a killing..its to reduce my losses in a colapse...

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 10:32 | 1271643 sgorem
sgorem's picture

+++

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:18 | 1271315 Muir
Muir's picture

This is surely bullish for silver!

Another great day to BTFDs!!!

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:22 | 1271321 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yep, looks like yet another 'bite the fukin dick' day for the american people. Just hold physical silver, its not for day trading.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:40 | 1271394 topcallingtroll
topcallingtroll's picture

You are funny because I know you are making fun of silver bugs.  I bet there are some who believe you are serious.

Whether you believe in the silver religion or not you have to laugh every once in a while.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:50 | 1271441 I Told YOU So
I Told YOU So's picture

very distracting

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 13:23 | 1272231 IQ 145
IQ 145's picture

 Bought December Comex Silver at $34.25 today; we'll see how that works out.

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 14:19 | 1272390 Smartie37
Smartie37's picture

Actually, right now silver is the only one of the four, AG, PT, PD that IS up.....

Is this anomaly a signal about something ..?

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:25 | 1271331 tmosley
tmosley's picture

Wut woh, wooks wike Wowotwader might be bout ta hav sum pwobwems :(

Fri, 05/13/2011 - 09:28 | 1271333 Franken_Stein
Franken_Stein's picture

 

Every continuous and differentiable linear or nonlinear function y = f(x) of a variable x can be expresed as its so-called "Taylor sum" or "Taylor series", which is an infinite sum of linear terms of a certain structure plus a residual in Cauchy- or Lagrange-form, to make it finite.

 

 

For example:

f(x) = e^x = 1 + x + x² / 2! + x^3 / 3! + ... + x^n / n! + L(n)

 

with

n! = 1*2*3*4*...*n, faculty function

 

That's how you calculate non-linear functions like sin(x), cos(x), ln(x), e^x and so on in a computer or calculator.

 

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