John Taylor Says That Despite Everything, Greece And Spain Will Default
John Taylor was on Bloomberg TV Friday, and in this extended version of his interview, the head of the world's largest currency hedge fund said that the euro will fall, equities could head lower, credit spreads will widen sharply and government bonds will rally.
Taylor discusses last week's NFP report, which he calls a "goldilocks" number as liquidity will be ample, gives his perspective on the upcoming Fed decision, which he agrees with Goldman will be just the MBS roll off proceeds reinvestment into treasuries (which he thinks is already priced in), but he considers it a very small amount of money in the big picture. The result would be a weaker dollar "but only for a number of weeks." The catalyst for the turnaround will be "things getting much worse." Taylor does not see any unintended side effects of a new monetization phase, because, once again, the total amount will likely be small (we are not sure we agree with this: with the amount of margin for OTC products, commodities will likely benefit materially from a new QE round). Taylor repeats the old mantra that unlike Europe, the US has control over its currency, and that Europe is certainlyl unhappy with a weak dollar (a trend we believe we will see a lot of increasingly shorter frequency, higher amplitude moves in over the next few quarters). Taylor concludes by discussing his current trade: the short EURUSD pair. He does not see the euro going far beyond 1.35, and his target of 1 to 1.10 he sees as very realistic. As pertains to Europe, he sees the ECB easing in Q4, and due to the FX mismatch in global assets mostly denominated in dollars, he anticipates a major short squeeze in USD positions in Q3 and Q4, when the "economy starts to roll over." He concludes by presenting his two sure bankruptcy candidates: Greece and Spain. We believe that with the European vacation season drawing to a close, the riotous festivities in the PIIGS may be upon us very shortly once again.