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John Taylor Says The Euro Is Like A "Headless Chicken", States Prop Trading Makes Up 80% Of Goldman's Revenue
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John Taylor is his usual painfully forthright, objective and candid self in this must read Capital.de interview in which he analyzes the prospects before Europe (not good), and compares the Euro to a "chicken, with a severed head running across the yard before it dies." Taylor believes that so long as Europe continues to exist in its make believe monetary never-never land, any efforts to bring some form of fiscal rationality in the form of austerity, will be underminded by the continuing lies on the monetary and financial stability fronts. This fits in with Roubini's recent admonition that Obama should finally start treating Americans as adults. Yet in light of recent evidence that Obama has taken more vacation time and golf breaks than even his predecessor, any chance for him to be taken seriously may be long gone. Furthermore, Taylor notes that instead of the ECB demonizing FX traders like himself, the bureaucrats should be thanking him, as he is one of the few voices of reason, and just like in the Asian crisis of 1997, those who listen to him ultimately prevent major capital losses (kinda like what ZH suggested to those invested in Greek bonds some time ago, to the utimate chagrin of an overly defensive RBS). Yet the most notable observation to us at least, is that Taylor confirms our previous statement that Goldman is lying about the contribution of prop trading to its top line. Of Godman's revenue, Taylor says: "80 percent of the revenues which now come from proprietary trading of the bank. No matter what happens, Goldman Sachs always profits." Compare this to our statement from December 2009: "Goldman's head of PR claims the Goldman's prop trading accounts for
only 12% of net revenue. Zero Hedge disagrees, and we would like to
pose a question to Mr. van Praag which we hope Goldman will answer for
us in order to refute our observation that Goldman may be disingenuous
in its public statements." Goldman's subsequent response to us did nothing to refute our allegation: "We’ve said publicly that prop trading represents approximately 10% of this year’s reported net revenue. We generate the vast majority of our revenue in FICC by facilitating trading activity for our clients and nearly all our revenues in FICC are “due to capital at risk” (your phrase)." Shortly after this exchange, finally bringing due attention to Goldman's prop trading operations, the Volcker Rule appeared, and all else equal, will likely impose major restrictions on Goldman's top line, which could be as big as an 80% cut.
If Zero Hedge and Taylor are correct, look for Goldman's EPS to plummet once the firm is unable to take advantage of all the embedded benefits prop affords it. Full interview with John Taylor below: we apoligze for the quality - it is google translated as the interview has not appeared in Engish anywhere, although it is self-explanatory. (interview in the original German can be found here).
"The euro is Exitus"
John Taylor, chief of world's biggest currency hedge-fund explained why his guild is important for the recovery of markets, why he keeps losing to Greece and wants to reclaim the D-Mark - and why German pensioners would be grateful to him.
Mr Taylor, Oliver Stone has called and will star in his next film offered?
John Taylor : Of which I know nothing. Why should he?
Because currently associated with hedge funds such as from your plot, and even conspiracy is mentioned. Speculators such as George Soros, John Paulson, and you should have secretly agreed to be in the knee to force the euro - the perfect Hollywood material.
Taylor: In view of 1.2 trillion U.S. dollars, the euro traded transactions on a daily basis, it is unlikely that a group of fund managers might try to hedge, to manipulate the currency of the world's second largest.
If "hedgie" as you do not have the necessary financial leverage, into the abyss to tear the Euro, you could still try it even rhetorically. Your comparison with a "chicken, with the severed head still while running across the yard one before it died," many felt in Germany as scandalous.
Taylor: (laughs) I'm in the country grew up on Long Iceland, there was something of everyday life. But seriously, we try to hedge fund managers to see the world as it is and not as we would like. This is the foundation of our business. And if we sometimes use dramatic metaphors to make attention to injustices, which in the end maybe its good.
They earn hundreds of millions - and stick at the same time the title of "particular value to educational. Is not that a bit tasteless?
Taylor: Should we contribute to the highly indebted countries in the euro-zone game finally tackle their problems, that would be very positive. Ireland make just before an outstanding manner, as it goes. The Irishmen have cut welfare benefits and sharply reduced wages. Or take Estonia: After the brutal fall of the former boom country is now in the process to redevelop with a painful austerity program, and manages it, in 2011 a member of the euro club to be. Tallinn takes on new debt of only 2.4 percent of GDP, total debt at beginning of year just 7.2 percent.
In Greece there are about 115 percent? ...
Taylor: And that is why it is an illusion to believe that could relieve the downward spiral of Hellas. The Greeks have announced the austerity measures only, because otherwise the much-needed loans from the countries of the Euro-zone and the IMF would not get it. How the public reacts to this was to watch, yes.
Is there iron Save impossible?
Taylor: If it attempts is deselected. The Greek government will do it if the first tangible savings for the general population. This represents not just their mentality.
After all, they seem to be yes IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn is on their side. The warning against an overly rapid reduction of the deficits. If all the savings at the same time, they would kill growth in the euro zone this.
Taylor: The optimistic scenario is that Europe's economy recovered quickly and it manages the ECB, the excess money as promised to reverse some, collected by government bonds sold. Ich bin da nicht sehr hoffnungsfroh. I am not very hopeful.
Was it a mistake, Greece 2001, the euro-zone to be incorporated into?
Taylor: Yes, of course, that was it even an economics student in the first semester could calculate, and would come to the conclusion: It never, never can work. I myself have conducted over many years at the Università della Svizzera italiana in Lugano, a seminar on "European Integration". As early as 1998, I represented the thesis that the euro is put together properly. The students there were of course shocked and have insulted me as a right-wing idiot from America. For all the introduction at that time was an inviolable and sacred matter.
When you get revenge today rhetorical guns out the order to put pressure on the euro.
Taylor: Nonsense! It's rather unusual that someone from my industry so publicly articulated. Most of my colleagues prefer to operate in secret. What brings me? Well, from Germany, I've even got a death threat - and this not from any madman, but a person to be taken seriously.
Why then go to the public?
Taylor: Because we must educate the people. I manage investment funds for about one quarter of all German retirees. What do you think of what to expect from me? The fact that I make stupid decisions? When I manage money for pension funds during the Asian crisis of San Diego has ...
... and the forced release of the Thai baht exchange rate in a chain reaction of the currencies and stock prices fell by ...
Taylor: I was invited to a panel discussion on television. A few people in the audience at that time I have cursed violently if I would have no scruples, what would I do to these countries.
What have you responded?
Taylor: That one must not forget that I am the timely payment of pensions of many ordinary people in San Diego for'm engaged! For years I had invested in Thailand, because I had bet on the success of the country. It but no one could seriously expect me to run there with open eyes in the disaster, raised him as a dark cloud.
Such forward-looking portfolio shifts Chancellor Angela Merkel has certainly not meant, as they fund industry has criticized the hedge.
Taylor: But?
Moment of speculators a focused, concerted war of aggression against the euro-zone will be conducted in that. And that you and your colleagues will make every effort to accelerate the downward trend.
Taylor: Do you believe that all serious? It is for all of us about better and faster than the other - what meaning would there arise a consultation? It is this accusation does show that politicians of the economy have no idea and want to distract from their own mistakes. Of course, a "Short" is currently in Greece for many a worthwhile investment. But because the country's development is unsustainable. Dafür ist nicht die Spekulation verantwortlich! That is not speculation is responsible!
In its policy statement Merkel called the currency crisis an "existential threat". And the public agrees with her. Who else but the policy is to make it to the seemingly outer edge and out of markets to recapture?
Taylor: The markets are functioning yet. It is the construct of the Euro, which does not work. Switching off the speculators, would extend the death throes of the single currency a little longer - but is, death. It is inevitable. And more people will come to harm than they would in a bankruptcy case of Greece - a country bankrupt three times as large as Argentina, but still comparatively small.
However, a disaster for German and French banks. You have to almost triple-digit billions lent to Greece.
Taylor: You know what the European Central Bank currently makes - and a quiet and discreet way that we would be unthinkable in America? She buys heavily on Greek government bonds, even after the adoption of the giant rescue package. And most of all French banks use cheerfully the opportunity to sell their bonds Greece and clean so their balance sheets of scrap paper. The ECB should stop this at last! Only that would send a strong signal in the direction of Spain, Portugal and other countries Debt: Get your act kindly on the belt, because you can not ever count on us you remove your junk bonds!
Support and emergency funds are currently the only means to disintegrate the community to prevent a political one.
Taylor: The opposite is true. The tone between the states has become rough because of the shifted billions. The Greeks go to Brussels on the road, in Germany, the anger grows on the sloppy management of the Mediterranean countries, Sarkozy played from Merkel and so on. I can remember the late 50's, when Europe was still a very different continent than it is today. When I first visited Paris, just smolder of the Algerian conflict, and all tanks and soldiers with machine guns on the streets.
Fear again similar conditions, if the euro collapses?
Taylor, if we wait until the euro breaks disorganized, it could very well amount to.
In your opinion who is best, which is fastest out of the Euro adopted as. And you recommended Germany to be the fastest. It benefits the exportlastige German economy than almost any other of the euro.
Taylor countered: Goods Mercedes-Benz and BMW, not even before the introduction of the euro well-established, highly profitable company? Or take a look at Sweden and Switzerland: The single currency also come without prima clear.
But a political integration in Europe without the euro is hard to imagine.
Taylor: Of course it is das. Do not get me wrong: Even as a student I had this blue € stickers on the bumper of my car pasted one. I love Europe. But the admission of Greece into the euro zone was really a step too much.
Greece is, after all the cradle of democracy. The one can not simply keep out of Europe.
Taylor: Not out of Europe, but in an artificial common currency. And in too rosy colors you should not paint the country is now really, just think of the military dictatorship in the 70s, when many people were imprisoned for their political ideology and tortured. They have simply not there, the environment and the mentality to be prostituted monetary terms with the Northern and Central European countries.
What would happen if the Germans adopt the euro zone?
Taylor: If Germany would now say, "we want to get out of the euro," says the Dutch would join immediately. And the Danes probably. And you could design structures, as is the whole thing could handle fiscally reasonable.
A country that instigated wars and so sorry about the continent has taken two infinite, can not simply make off, to say: Thank you very much, we have enough of the experiment.
Taylor: Of course this is politically a hard nut to crack. But there is no alternative. And a war is already being held back - not on the battlefield but in the economy. We can say with good reason that Germany is currently at war with the parliaments of the southern Euro-countries. When the Federal Government decided some time ago that the debt may be a year from 2016 only 0.35 percent of GDP, or nearly ten billion euros, they have the southern states to virtually condemned to poverty. Merkel, would really help to Greece to say, must be: We want a lower rather than higher a national debt!
With a return of the D-Mark, you were "bullish"?
Taylor: Of course I would be the D-Mark would be dollar das. look old!
The U.S. is so indebted, that most European countries such as choir boy look about it. Why do not you shoot one on the dollar?
Taylor: Because America has the opportunity, the printing press Inty. Greece can not.
Also, highly indebted states like California have opportunity not to devalue its currency.
Taylor: California is not comparable to Greece. The U.S. is in more than 200 years together to become a state. The EU, however, is not a state. The monetary union remains a contract matter between sovereign states. The EU lacks a central government in particular, so is the comparison of California and Greece, despite similar debt problems to the detriment of Greece. A lot of money that is spent in California, comes from Washington. A similar protection of Greece, the EU does not exist. Even in the event of insolvency the money continues to flow from Washington to California. I have lived here in New York when the city was virtually bankrupt. Not a good situation, believe me. But the system is not broken. In Europe, it will break.
One thing you must leave it: You talk straight. From the perspective of the foreign exchange dealer is the turmoil of the euro but a dream, right?
Taylor: We do not complain.(Laughs) But since there is still a lot to make up: the introduction of the euro has added to our industry pretty - there was simply less available currency pairs. We have therefore looked in the meantime the new countries of Eastern Europe. And in Asia. But the dream for currency traders can quickly become a nightmare. I suspect that European governments will soon agree on a ban on all short sales of euro government bonds. And that would be a disaster!
But probably only for the speculators?
Taylor: No, because it is getting worse all. The problem is not the financial markets, but the economies. If Germany exported goods en masse to Greece and Greece in return does not deliver to Germany, both countries can be tied together impossible. This is simply the reality. The Greeks have to stop buying German cars, refrigerators and armaments. Only a couple of pretty islands have not enough in the long run. How many German will be traveling to Greece this year? Not very many. Someone must prove but the hotel room, so the Greeks can make money for all the great German products. On this logic, nothing will change if they ban speculators. A ban on short selling is not the salvation, as long as the basic constellation is economically untenable.
An allegation is that hedge funds and bankers for the economic playground more subtle methods gamers see it as. Decide in times of techno capitalism computer, whether Greece should continue as before?
Taylor: No, ultimately, people are still sitting at the controls.
May this year different from when Dow Jones to 1000 points within minutes of the crash.
Taylor: Indeed, an absurdity - to answer the still in the Bush administration, which has deregulated exaggerated. As it is now about nanoseconds, which someone is faster than other market participants. If we wanted to play this game, we would have on the opposite side of the road as JP Morgan, an office lease and set up our computers there - only more so our cable connection is a few feet shorter than our competitors a couple of city blocks. Das ist verrückt, und deshalb machen wir das nicht. This is crazy, so we do not.
Take action at FX Concepts with unsecured credit default policies for euro countries, the infamous credit default swaps?
Taylor: No, although we have looked at the time. The reason may surprise you: It is almost impossible to legally define exactly when an insured event occurs.(Laughs) I'd have to employ thousands of lawyers. Some well-known American universities have recently engaged with the topic and found out that Greece would have no problems, get out of the euro, would not that only one of these credit default swaps to bear.
For Greece and the Euro-zone, you see black. Where controls in your scenario for the economy down?
Taylor: I think we are recession in 2008 next year in a much deeper and more prolonged down-turn will get drawn after. This one or the other state is directly controlled in the bankruptcy.
And where € is the end of the year, if he will ever even exist?
Taylor: We see the end of the year tie to the dollar.
Since we can be happy, yes, that China is growing strongly again, and supports the global economy?
Taylor: The renminbi artificially kept too low in the long run is a scandal. Even senior managers of Chinese companies now call for a revaluation of their domestic currency. China's government has, in my opinion, maybe ten years before it flies to the shop around the ears. This fits, moreover, to one observed by us associated with the organization of Olympic Games.
Since we are looking forward to but the details.
Taylor: In the 1980 Games in Moscow took place, almost ten years later the Iron Curtain fell. 2004, met the "Youth of the World 'in Athens - today the country is in the middle in the financial mess. Two years ago, the Beijing Games - ergo crashes in China at the end of the decade, a huge crisis.
Your computer spits out such scenarios?
Taylor: Yes, there seems to be a link between investment in massive infrastructure that no one needs later, and the later arrival of a crisis.
No good prospects for South Africa.
Taylor: (laughs) We actually had the past few months, a position in South African rand spent. With the start of the World Cup, we have sold.
Oliver Stone presents his latest film "Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps" a little sympathetic picture of Wall Street and hedge-fund managers? ...
Taylor: ... My brother knows him well. (Laughs again) When I see Oliver the next time, I will myself to task.
But you surely know those types, as portrayed Stone?
Taylor: Yes, absolutely. How can such a Lloyd Blankfein of Goldman Sachs put before the public and say that he and his peers to act on behalf of God?
Apart from this hubris Blankfein but makes a good job, do not you?
Taylor: Not at all. For my taste, Goldman Sachs is often found on both sides of deals. Full, 80 percent of the revenues which now come from proprietary trading of the bank. No matter what happens, Goldman Sachs profits ever. They are already highly dubious businesses.
Many people consider it morally also highly doubtful that people then you just as much money when the crisis strikes particularly hard and many people is just about to climb onto the window sill.
Taylor: Do not forget: In most cases, I also earn money for those who are there just about to jump.
h/t fasttrader
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"....Of Godman's revenue,...."
I love those easter eggs Tyler!
ZH is the best and I read it every day.
Yo, old man; nice to see you.
How are you ?
...almost as good as a tight west virginny cooter, lol!!
thanks for asking!
Hello Andy!
I haven't been this quiet for a long time: count your blessings!!
Right on man. Good to see you are doing well.
Good to see you too deadhead. I was just wondering the other day where that Stealie has been! :)
> !chicken is the euro like a headless chicken
<Geithner> $10 Trillion
My system triggered a sell signal on friday http://3drives.blogspot.com/2010/07/friday-trigger.html
https://www.markit.com/news/Credit%20Indices%20Primer.pdf
Read the above first.
Then pull up the ICE OTC data and DTCC volume data for Indexes/Synthetics.
Next; log onto Markit.com and read who are licensed dealers for Markit products.
After that read about what is the purpose and role of licensed dealers.
Next; observe the progression and evolution of bid/ask spreads for the most liquid series and vintages [no matter if they are on or off the run].
After you have done all that; see what can be netted out and what can not be netted out in bilateral and multi-lateral CDS/synthetic trading activities.
After you have done all that; the answer where and how GS and other banks make most of their profits becomes self-apparent.
Plus correlate the % increase in propriatary trading profits with the data that OCC published this week re: derivatives.
As I said; self-apparent.
There is brilliance here at ZH. Yeah I'm talking to you CB.
Well I wouldn't call it brilliance, more like "research". This data really is available for free and the only thing people need to do is log onto Markit and just read.
Ah, but you're wrong my friend, it's because of people like you I bother to read comments, or haven't you noticed an intellectual decline over the past year?
Beg yer pardon there, Jorge.
Don't sell yourself short, Cheeky. 90+% of people couldn't do even the tiniest bit of research, and probably 99.99% couldn't go any further than a Google search results page.
There is brilliance in hard work.
What ?
Read cheeky post.
Then pop open a Corona, insert lime.
Next look up words in financial dictionary.
After that re-read cheeky post.
Next think about cheeky post.
Then ask cheeky to please dumb it down and explain what is "self-apparent".
Will second that .
He likely meant self-evident.
They are MMs in 3rd most liquid and voluminous market there is. 5 Banks account for 96% of all transactions re: derivatives [be it IR swaps, commodity swaps, FX linked products [think Quanto and Quanto related derivatives [again think Quanto CDS]].
Add to that the accounting that goes on when you account for cash flows and liabilities linked to those securities which can not be netted vs. those that can and are netted [this is of minor importance here].
Basically they make the bulk of their profits by exploring bid/ask spreads in the most liquid securities [be it index linked CDS, 100 most liquid single name CDS; CDS on super-senior tranches linked to those SPs that are still trading on the secondary etc etc].
Now, IIRC, the average bid/ask spread for 10 most liquid Market products is something like 50 bps [which is a shitlot] and account for that the volatility in the past in those same bid/ask spreads [in some synthetics and indexes you could have seen bid/ask spreads going to 500 bps].
Add to that equity derivatives and IR swaps [IR swaps account for 84% of all derivatives non-netted volume outstanding] and you pretty much have a clear picture as to how they make 100M 363 days a year.
Spot on. A little more colour, though Cheeky is very clear.
The problem they can have is when liquidity dries up and clients vanish then market expectations get way ahead of what is actually going on (analysts know nothing, ever).
That was most of 2007-2008 for example. Then clients came back in 2009 and the spreads were huge and competition was reduced, so they printed $$$$ and very consistently. However this market condition was unusual.
Now, from what I am hearing, liquidity has gone patchy again and client flows are way down. This isn't even just in structured stuff but also in simple equity calls and puts. Maybe the really big boys are OK but the second tier guys are in trouble, layoffs coming.
Big boys are most probably fine since they trade among themselves and, AFAIK, since 09 mark-to-market their positions daily, and there is little confusion as to what is the price of most liquid instruments. As for those less liquid they either mark-to-market it to the last price it was bought/sold or for those completely illiquid mark-to-model. Illiquid stuff is not even priced [see TABX an then ABX and CMBX equity and junior tranches etc etc]. The only good thing they had going before was AIG and the concentration of risk within AIG [plus the fact AIG was 99% of the time contract originator] and that they could have implicity serve as market makers for those contracts as well as go to AIG to hedge themselves cheap.
As for equity options; I have no idea, but I am seeing some high volatility in put/call ration [thank you Hamzei] which is not an indicator of tight liquidity per se; but nevertheless it is indicative of something. What that something is; I have no Idea.
Cheeky,
Thank you for keeping these boards honest. Someone above suggested that the intellectual level on these boards had declined over the past year. I think the level of attention to detail has declined certainly. People seem to require that everything be obvious to a layman, and be disseminated in soundbite format.
The fundamental difference between proprietary trading and principal trading is quite large and few seem to 'get it.' Most laypeople seem to think that GS is an overgrown Schwab and hedge fund joined at the hip.
As to equity options, if you are seeing put/call ratio volatility, that would seem to indicate OK liquidity (because people would be changing net position fairly often to create that volatility. Personally, I'd think that with relatively high vol of vol, and ever-increasing intracorrelation (realized and implied), it would be only natural to be playing at the front end of the curve. FWIW, I notice that the vol traders I know are willing to take on BIG-vega ticket OTM customer positions at closer to the screen price than ever before but that is more people trying to get something done than real liquidity because the screen price jumps to the traded level almost instantaneously. That would signal a relative lack of market activity.
I think one of the 'problems' of equity vol is that structured products' "capital guarantee" is less trusted than before so new savings are funneled to other, more direct, alternatives, or people are looking more towards hybrid product, which tends to reduce the vanilla aspect. The other activity which has been reduced vs the super-duper liquid times of yesteryear is the variance swap. The dealer re-hedge activity used to be central to market liquidity provision but with a lot less total vega appetite out there (certainly on the short side), there is less of related hedging activity.
I would like to hear more about intracorrelations. Who is the alpha wolf in this game and the sheeps that follow ( not to say maeh, maeh, maeh herds ) ?
The alpha wolf is the market. The sheep are all of us trying to chase it. Intracorrelation is just the manifestation of people losing conviction in their own ideas and staying away from the market.
Maaeh.
In all seriousness, if you ask any institutional equity salesman how his 'high-touch' commission business is faring this year and you will not get a smiley face I bet... that means that the people driving realized intra-correlation are the short-term traders (ETF market-making machines, index arb, etc, HFTs market-making the market-makers).
CB
If this is so apparent why aren't all the big banks having no trading loss quarters? I don't deny what you are saying, but a no trading loss quarter when they are using huge amounts of capital. Its unheard of. Quarter earnings have been successively better until the last one which was perfect, and all this while the country is in a recession. On the other hand they manage to loose 7 out of 9 trades for their clients?
Hold on. Are you saying that they make a ba ba bazillion (per Hank Paulson) dollars with a trading strategy of buying on the bid and selling on the offer (a.k.a. scalping) the top 10 CDS ?
They serve as Market Makers and Primary Dealers. Make of that what you want. As I suggested in my first post under this article, read the .pdf I linked.
Thanks Cheeky, I have been visiting for a while and joined 4 weeks ago. This place has exposed many weaknesses I have and the denial they hide behind. Many have contributed but your recent posts were most helpful.
Newbie: I am not sure what you just said, but, it sounds as if I should. So, please keep posting these informative posts. I am learning everyday and thank you ZH. And, yes,CB, I did have to wear a pork chop around my neck just to get my parents to talk to me.
Belated thanks .
Belated thanks .
EUR/USD just opened, Euro, Cando, Aussie getting slammed.
It's going to be "Risk Off" tomorrow.
Get ready to run those Wildebeasts again.
LOL....
Sometimes reading through the post and comments, my mind begins to go numb. Then as I slowly scroll down, I hit RT and I perk up a bit...maybe some naked woman. Your like a cup of coffee brother. Someone said "Its not the goal that's the rush, it is the anticipation of the goal". So even though I didn't score, the anticipation was all that I needed. Onward through the rest of the comments!
GS doesn't need that bank holding company status. They can go it alone, they are uber-smart! Hey Blankefin, tell those gubbermint meddlers to take their bond guarantees and shove them where the sun don't shine.
Theoretically they do not need a bank status; but it makes it easier to have it. I mean access to DW and usage of FFR are valuable options to have in this day and age.
They could turn to uncle warren for some extra $B to pay off those .gov insured bonds but the terms would be a bit more, um, cumbersome.
from yahoo!
Balance Sheet Total Cash (mrq): 778.76B Total Cash Per Share (mrq): 1,512.78 Total Debt (mrq): 398.75B Total Debt/Equity (mrq): N/A Current Ratio (mrq): 1.58 Book Value Per Share (mrq):128.33
If only that $778.76B cash was really all theirs, the bonuses would be enormous. They could pay off the lt bonds and still have enough left over to buy south america.
It's fun to always double down when you can do it for free.
It's like watching the keystone cops!
What a clown. He says US is different than Greece, because US can print money, and then he moralizes about responsibility. Give me a break.
Perhaps you never heard of the concepts of "normative" and "positive".
For instance:
" He says US is different than Greece, because US can print money" is a "positive" statement, and is factually correct to boot.
"moralizes about responsibility" This is a normative statement.
Cheers,
Very interesting, indeed. Perhaps, you also look up the word hypocrisy in your dictionary?
I think kaizen is trying to say EUR, and "Europe", don't suck. I mean, based on other comments on ZH.
Unfortunately, your assumption is wrong again. But that´s not surprising. I mean, based on your other comments on ZH.
Dear kaiten or Dear "Japanese human torpedo":
I think you didn't understand the interview. By saying "...because US can print money..." Mr. Taylor is just stating a fact. He is not suggesting in any way, shape or form that this is the responsible thing to do.
But my biggest concern is with the first part of your comment: "What a clown".... A CLOWN.... A CLOWN John Taylor a clown ??? What the f@ck are you talking about??? Taylor predicted EUR/US 1.20 at the beginning of the year... this was an extremely difficult call to make just imagine the magnitude of the move... no wounder lots of people doubt him! This is the guy you call a clown?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M31hopk3Gmo
A CLOWN, A CLOWN, a clown is Jim "The Flip-Flop" Cramer, a clown is James "Austin Powers" Altucher, clowns are all those people that talk about something when they don't know shit about the topic that they are talking about....think for example most of CNBC like Joe "Perma-Tan" Terranova, Dennis "Beaker" Kneale, or Bob "I look, move, think and talk like C3PO" Pisani but please Mr. Japanese Human Torpedo NOT John "Mr. FX" Taylor!
"Mr. Taylor is just stating a fact." Hahahaha :) Oh, yes, he´s just stating a fact. How good of him. Because no one else knows that US can print money, so he just had a need to inform us. What a kind person he is. Now, you´re a clown, too. And why? Because, you "didn't understand the interview", that´s why. OK, enough of jokes for now. Have a good day, Pamela. Real or fake? ;)
I wrote 10 months ago, on 02 Sept-2009 on MW community board, when EURUSD was at 1.42:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-to-buy-up-to-50-billion-of-first-...
It seems that Mr. John Taylor reads MW comments. But after 30 years job in Citi bank and FX, he also SHOULD READ Zerohedge.com - in order to know that money are mostly not "printed", but *ISSUED*:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/german-central-bank-admits-credit-creat...
..................................................................
From this point of veiw on money creation (taken from Bundesbank's book) - there is no difference between Greece and USA. Both issue money by granting bank credits.
"fiscal rationality, treat the people like adults." Reminds me of the scene from the Twelve Monkeys when the lovely Ms Stowe explains the Cassandra Syndrome. We can see the future but no one heeds our warnings. Is the future set? Can we not alter our course? Can destiny not be altered?
Are you just fishing for trolls with the canard regarding relative amount of vacation time spent by current and previous president?
Have you forgotten that Prez Dubya abstained from golf after Iraq invasion as his gesture of solidarity w/ "the troops"?
Have you forgotten where Prez Dubya was, and what doing, the whole month of August 2001? Where & what doing as New Orleans got Katrina-d? Prez Bam has his weaknesses, but being a slacker isn't one of them.
Now I'll go read the rest of the post and see if the writer continues manufacturing hios own facts.
I find it funny they are sending these guys out every week now buy cash, the euro is crashing, maybe we should worry about ourselves.....they ain't foolin me......the dollar index is now forming the last shoulder. Gold is in a cup and handle. Look out below. Jim rickards was on CNBC last thursday why no mention of gold at all? RESTRICTION. Our media is just as bad as every other country.....
We definitely live in interesting times.
May be a wild week.
Agent Zero is partying in Maine, like all the Bushes before him. Wake up someday.
PS. I can not advise you strong enough in favor of reading the Daily Credit Summary. CDS ad Cash are the best indicators of future broad macro-economic picture. They have predicted the last 10 out of 10 recessions/depression/pull-backs.
Thanks, Cheeky. That's very helpful. Love your comments; I learn quite a bit from them.
Ditto missin_link
thanks
6 months ago more credit CDS traded than cash bonds. What is going on now Cheeky Playa?
http://www.dtcc.com/products/derivserv/data_table_i.php?id=1.6.1
http://www.sifma.org/uploadedFiles/Research/Statistics/SIFMA_USBondMarketTradingVolume.pdf
Admittedly off topic but this just kind of made me a little sad:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/blog/big_league_stew/post/James-Gammon-playe...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkBzwNhkpp0
ZH "Mancrush" Hugh Hendry on Infaltion vs Deflation:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cQjD2sw_eg4
Thanks, T. For anyone that doesn't have the 7 minutes, the best info is from 5:30 on.
Not his channel I thought it was. There is another link there too:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t8yh8KK3DIU&feature=channel
It would be fantastic if some native German could translate the interview into more meaninful text. My brain hurts after three sentences above.
All your thing-in-itself are belong to us.
Does Taylor "manage investment funds for about one quarter of all German retirees."?
Because I've never heard of the man and even google is light on search info?
Just asking... "Not to ask if known man is player large."
Taylor manages the biggest FX Hedge Fund in the world. When he says "investment funds for about one quarter of all German retirees.", he is talking about the FX component of those Pensions Funds...
and I doubt that this is not true... why would he need to lie and ruin his reputation by saying something about German retirees in a German magazine that wouldn't be true, specially after taking heat in Europe for his EUR calls.
Do you know who is Andrew Hall? ... No... Google
Do you know who is John D. Arnold? ... No... Google
Do you know who is Cramer? .....
"Dog that barks does not bite"
If 25% of all German retirees' Pensions Funds - in FX (!?) - that is "Scary movie, part 5.1". (Real "Scary movie 5" is due 2011).
No, Mr. Taylor is managing these funds here :
http://www.fx-concepts.com/meetthepeople.php
1)Goldman stated several times that the bulk of their profit stems from spreads in FICC.
2) Funny enough, a lot of ZH followers do not read GS recommendations in detail. If so, they would observe that each GS division has its "macro and micro economic" forecasts which contradict each other.
3) Conclusion is : Goldman gives a sh1t about market direction in most markets, because all they are looking for is volatility and spread widening - the more, the better.
4) At the end of 2008, they made 1.5 billion USD in 6 weeks time by means of easy vola breakout trades. After March 2009 they collected more than 1.8 billion selling vola.
5) EUR/USD prediction of 1,15 and 1,35 ? LOL ! You bet there were some very profitable currency vola swaps involved...
A headless...RUBBER...chicken.
That is all. Over and out.
Well, there are headless chicks and then there's Mike.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mike_the_Headless_Chicken
So, all in all, the Euro still may go on for some time. As a freak.
I remember that from years ago thanks for the reminder!
And the comment is priceless.
Top 173 Fund Managers (old version had photos)
http://bionano.wikidot.com/top-99-fund-managers
Lot going on here... 1. Am I still drunk or was that some craked out diction. 2. Headless chickens are so voodoo... See south park margaritaville episode Please!!! It's hilarious... Especially the kazoo guy. 3. Is IIRC icubedRC like cola... No 4. CB... Talks in a different language. 5. Www. Ministryofsound.com. Live radio. Makes the pain less so. And 6. Risk off? When's the 3.5 MBS gonna liquefy? We need lowered long term rates for the mensch...or WFD...And...7. Junk silver bitchez!!!
I'm gonna short the euro, then the dollar then buy some gold, get a passport and move to switzerland.